 Hello and welcome to the Monday afternoon Weekly webinar with us here as the CMC markets a quick quick rundown of the main events today's date It's Monday the 23rd of October. The time is just gone at 12 15 in the afternoon And we'll proceed now with the weekly webinar and as always I'll just leave the risk warnings on screen here for you guys to have a read-through To ensure that our like a plastic apartment will be will be happy it essentially states that any of The material that we cover our topics I discuss Are not to be construed as an investment or trading advice just purely commentary What's going on on the markets and they shouldn't be true because through it is as explicit instructions It's just a kind of an exchange of ideas if you will and always You have the chat box there in front of you I'm going to cover the main markets indices currencies commodities Discuss the major events of the week and there's any markets that I haven't covered Just feel to just type in the chat box say David, which might have a look at this and I will happily oblige And there we go. We have the risk warning out of the way now so you can proceed with the actual webinar itself So as always what we'll do is take a quick look What's been going on in the markets quiet enough start to these session in in Europe? Volatility larges speaking of all the last few days in the Bayne European markets has been fairly quiet You know, we're still north of 13,000 on the DAX And we're still that the footsie cat really seemed to get beyond 7,560 But it's equity markets are some of the major ones have been standing in pretty quiet the last number of trading sessions but obviously the situation in Catalonia is still ongoing the Madrid government are in the process of Stripping the autonomous region of its powers and we have even though we've had to know kind of We've no Procedure and that they're gonna be about the Spanish government are gonna be voting that on Thursday We could see some sort of a reaction This week's that we are trading the IAX which you will look at in a few minutes time That's obviously gonna be a big one to keep an eye out for In terms of the kind of major events to kind of keep an eye out and watch out for over the week If you go to our news and analysis section on our website and then on the under the filter by click on weekly outlook every week we also produce a Weekly outlook we give the breakdown of the major both corporate and economic stories of the week. That's ahead of us So you got an update here on Wednesday from the back of Canada And because we got enough on Wednesday to the back half of the week Wednesday through Friday We've a number of UK banks Have the numbers out loads of Wednesday practice in Thursday rollback of Scotland on Friday What we also have is we have With the numbers out from Amazon coming out on Thursday As we will as we do alphabet and also taking a look You also have some economic indicators coming out of the US economy on Friday Taking a scroll through now. I already mentioned a couple of stocks that are reporting this week But later there's a few other companies that are worth mentioning as well 3m in the United States have numbers up tomorrow and Tuesday I'll do caterpillar caterpillar often seen as a Bellwether for the actual but they can heavy in for kind of heavy industry give you often gives you gauge of what the construction or the Mining sector is doing General Motors are also out on Tuesday. Lockheed Martin the defense company McDonald's The the fat food chain on Tuesday turning our attention now to Wednesday We got numbers off of Boeing Coca-Cola three port Mac Moran They are a mining company Clacks of Smith Klein in the UK our third board numbers out as I mentioned Lloyds We also have an update from visa on Wednesday from the US alphabet alphabet as mentioned already They're the owner of the parent company of Google lots of Amazon's third board numbers out Barclays American Airlines group CME group the futures exchange Ford Motor Car have numbers out on Thursday Intel have numbers off on Thursday scroll down. It's quite a long list here of Companies which reporting on Thursday. We've updated from from Santander and also from from Twitter on Thursday Friday, but be quiet international Kassada airlines and also Royal Bank of Scotland Taking a look now. I was been going on some of the major markets. Let me look now at the footsie 100 It's been basically it's had a big pushback since September Went up to the back up towards the retested the August highs and we're kind of in around that area again So given that we're still given that we're only probably say About 60 odd points shy of the all-time high in the footsie 100 I would say that that the overall outlook is to publish this move here It's kind of powerful push-up here from kind of mid September has only given back a small bit of its gains I it would appear that traders are kind of catching their break as of where The bulls are kind of a by the looks of it taking a bit of a break It's been very much range bound pipe enough range in around here from around 7,500 at the downside up to 7,561 kind of 60 that's our price area. So a 60 point range For the last few weeks What they indicate is that all I look at is the MACD indicator and if you notice as the market was pushing higher It's one lot of negative momentum and then all of a sudden they had a very much increase and positive momentum and since They kind of about the first week or 10 days of the month Positive momentum it's been completely declining thought said that that's kind of guaranteed to swing a negative momentum But it would put the status is something to keep an eye out for especially when Market hasn't really kind of made any additional ground it could be signed that because fires are kind of running out of steam So but if you do break north of this area here 7,561 which is kind of one of the high one of the kind of lower highs from June We could then be targeting the all-time high of just shy 6 out 7,000 second rush at 7,599 But if you do see most of the downside, we could have expected finance and support in around this price here under this this Candle here from from Thursday 7,484 and a potentially back down towards 7,461 As I mentioned any any markets that I am the only to cover this feel free to shout out, but I would be covering apologies, I will be covering the major markets That to dissimilar on the Germany 30 on the backs. I said a major push higher in September Would I think it achieved record highs only last only last week and ever since then Last year train sessions been fairly quiet very much range bound kind of in around 13,000 to 13,095 very much kind of range bound, but given that we're Then within easy easy eyesight of the record high the uppermost upward trend here is still very much in place It is slightly concerning though that all the kind of positive momentum here has slipped away And it's also want to make a negative momentum, but it's only barely a negative momentum territory The price is still key So if we do happen to break north and if you create an a fresh all-time high at 13,095 96 sugar beyond that turns looking towards Big psychological number is 13,200 and 300 and so on But if we do happen to actually get it get a pullback we could pull back into this area here in round 12,893 are then south of that this price here in around 12,847 I'll have a look now at the Spanish market the ibex because it's been probably the most interesting market news-wise the last few weeks But even but even before the Catalan situation kicked off about three weeks ago It's worth pointing out that the Spanish market the ibex has been in decline since May anyways after getting an all-time high It's been slowly giving up all these all these gains here notice how The foot the fifth day moving average this line here Has acted as a fairly decent level of resistance that I since seeing as it has previous experience Active resistance and you know, let's say that I would guaranteed active resistance again the future but it just makes it more likely and I suspect while while the while the ibex remain south of the 50 day moving average The all look for the market is going to remain negative and that comes to play in around 10,290 odd And if you do kind of push push the lower on the on the ibex 35 We could be looking that or we could be looking for support at 10,000 and 85 87 and in south of that That down to the low and up early October That 10,000 9,866 in on both those areas would be keeping I on to the downside But if you do happen to kind of break north a size of a break as well north of the fifth day moving average Not just a small kind of piercing of the level We could target the kind of mid-August high of 10,445 and then beyond that 10,576 And then of course north of that again the August high will be going to watch out for at 10,758 US markets in quite decent shape in comparison to their European counterparts from church This is just the market just keeps on going and going doesn't it? It's very much kind of groundhog day fresh record highs the market is in almost a classic example of a textbook Positive train just keeps on creeping higher if anything I'm going to say about this market. It's unusual. You haven't seen any kind of really kind of pullbacks It's been very it's been very much this kind of pushing higher almost a kind of at a 45 degree line the next few last few months As the market is pushing higher you can see there's been a note There's a visual increase in positive momentum so you can sleep and I should be more confident That the move is going to continue because as the price is pushing higher That's also kind of confirmed by the increase in positive momentum So the buyers are still kind of gaining momentum and and the buying appetite is still increasing So so the outlook for the US 30 for the Dow Jones remains positive If you do up into a soup see a pullback we could pull back into this price area here in around the level of 23,000 and 770 or than south of that at 23,000 itself But it depends on strategy what you want to do some players that like to kind of wait for a pullback others I'd like to like to be a bit more aggressive enter the market now But bearing in mind if you are waiting for a pullback that pullback may never come because you can see here You haven't really kind of haven't really backtracked whatsoever But obviously if you do enter the market straight in Rather than waiting for a pullback is obviously a bit more risk attached to that itself The S&P 500 not too dissimilar again chart wise I Just pull up the levels now Similar deal as well. The market is just kind of ratcheting up Fresh record highs kind of session after session very much kind of groundhog day So the the bullish trend is still very much very much in place The one thing I can say is that we are What this set this looking it back at Thursday's calendar and that that sell-off Probably possibly wasn't an entire surprise because as the market was pushing higher here We notice that positive momentum is actually noticeably declining So market was telling us that even though the market was eking out fresh record highs the rate of which the bi-momentum Was increasing was slowing down So that would be would be a bit of an occasion is called diversions But when the two are kind of going in that direction and that could have been a bit of a foreshadow that We were going to see a bit of a push lower and lo and behold we did so So it would have been an opportunity to potentially going to buy the pullback in there But now that we're seeing markets pushed higher momentum is taking up again So we could we could potentially infer another round of the market much moving higher for another few days in a row Similar deal looking to the upside traders looking up for big psychological numbers 2600 if you do see a pullback you could see you know looking at this price here Friday's high 2576 are then there are the bottom of the end of that range would be 2561 these areas if you do see a pullback These are the sorts of areas we could see or even back down towards Thursday's low that 2544 but either way it's still looking to be a quite a positive They can expect but probably expect a positive move for the for the S&P 500 While traders are in risk-on mode we're seeing a turn lower in gold That's up the red at the very strong US dollar is It's keeping gold the move in gold curtailed Also what we're seeing as well is the as I mentioned the very much risk on attitude Traders are expecting Donald Trump's tax proposals to be introduced. That's pushing up the US dollar It's also pushing up the value of the US stock market and in turn Traders are are are still keeping an eye on the December for a rate hike from the Federal Reserve There's still reason to be confident and we're gonna see a rate hike on the from the US central bank And it's also an inverse relationship between US interest rates and the price of gold so As as we saw here on the on the price of gold It has been good cooling the last number of sessions positive momentum as that has turned actually negative now It's actually swung around but we can see here that It is getting a bit of support from the one-hour day moving average and that comes into play in around the price for currently at in around 12,075 So it's actually a support in the last few days So if we do manage to hang on to 1275 we could potentially see You know another another another go up towards the 1300 level And then the next level beyond that will be 1306 the high of October But both given that the market is gonna push in lower since September It's kind of appears to have potentially turned over on itself here If we do happen to drop back below the fifth 100 a moving average in this place here at 1275 We could then be looking back towards the October low At this level here in round the 1260 and then south of that Well, you know very very much under the 1260 is the fifth and it's the 200 a moving average Which would be kind of deemed to be quite an important brawn to the market And if you do if you do drop along the turn of the moving average, we could then be looking back down towards 1230 1220 or back down towards the July low of 1204 Having a look now at the oil market Not to do to dissimilar to some of the European equity markets in that for training in a relatively tight tight range the last two sessions and even though after hitting after going out to have quite a decent Move move in September give them back some of those gains in October But but at the same time it looks like it's sort of kind of indecisive That's why we're seeing kind of swing between positive and negative a mentor There's something that the market is kind of indecisive which way it's going I would suggest seeing as the kind of wider the wider Positive move that's been in place since June is still very much intact How I would suggest we could see a continuation I would suggest that we we could see a continuation of the kind of wider upper move that's been in place, but What you could potentially do is you may want it might be interesting to see if I can actually take off this level here First of all $58 and 68 cents it takes out this area here because that's sort of been a bit of a cap Racing of active resistance if you go north of that then we could be looking towards a September high 59 dollars 51 cents, and then if you go beyond that the big psychological city dollars a barrel then we'll give it to play But any kind of moves lower in the in the price of all if we if you take off the October low here $55.30 that could be a sign that you know the upward move has been in place for a number of months is coming to an end But even if you do see a pullback to this price area here In around the kind of 56 region we could see some more buyers enter the fold seeing as they're going to wider trend That's impossible for the last few months. So do you move? south of the the October low at 55.30, but then we could potentially see and then back towards the kind of 54 region Looking now at the price of WTI Same situation but not as not as kind of over key kind of bullish The wider kind of positive move has been in place in June is still very much intact. We're not going to create higher highs Hasn't Man, it hasn't really kind of had the kind of energy to a to take on the city of September high here It kind of ran out of steam on a complication But by and large it's pulled back all the kind of all then after eating a multi-month high in September It had a bit of a sell-off bounce off the kind of About both south just it was a slightly south of the 20 moving average and bounced off of the 50 moving average So that's that's going to be that's going to be a level to keep out for Should he move lower, but seeing as we're only you know, not not only less than Then about 60 cents away from this September high, which was of course a multi-month high You know the outlook is it's still fairly decent for the price of WTI So first level to watch offer to the upside is going to be the September high at 52 dollars at 53 cents And then beyond that we're looking towards the April high here at 53 dollars and 56 cents and if that happens taken out We're looking back to the beginning of the year back in February back towards that February high of 54 dollars and 63 cents But and as I mentioned as the fifth of the moving average act as a bit of support here In early October, we could potentially see acting as a as a support level again. It should we move south So if you do move south obviously gonna 50 50 bucks is going to be kind of psychological number to keep out Keep an eye out for and then below that the fifth of the moving average comes into play and around 49 dollars and 43 cents Just and it just so happens that the Trinity moving average isn't too far below that either at 49 dollars and 80 18 cents So these are levels that we do see a bit of a push lower in the price of WTI These are potential levels. We might see some buyers enter the fold because as I mentioned The trend that's been in place since June is still intact Taking a look now at our currencies. We'll have a scan over a few of the big currency pairs And as I mentioned, this is any markets that I haven't covered and you want me to cover just shout out and I'd be happy to do it Obviously what's going on with what's going on with both Catalan question the situation in In Italy, we had a couple of non legally binding regional referendums In non-baraday and a vento over the weekend both regions in northern Italy in a non non binding legally binding referendum voted for more powers to their to to the more powers to the local administration and it just Sets off an image that There's not like a because not only is there a political division within Europe There's this political division within countries that are members of the of the eurozone This is obviously sort of obviously a big issue Combined up the fact that the US dollar has had a good run recently There's a lot of there's a lot of high hopes out there a Donald Trump Donald Trump's tax reformers will get pushed through and on the back of that the US dollar has been The dollar basket has been at its highest in number of weeks also whenever we do hear about The european president's mario drakes plans or potential plans to get a taper Or any kind of alterations to the bond buying scheme the current the current person's in 60 billion euros a month They come in bonds are they going to throw it back to something like 40 or are they going to and are they going to throw back to something like 20 Can alter the dates alter the timeline of which they do it Has yet to be seen but any any kind of updates from The european center bank on that respect are obviously going to be very important to keep an eye out for So in relation to the to the To the euro dollar, it's clearly had a great had a great run If you're pushing higher well throughout the year Some of the economic indicators, you know the euros on oh in 2017 have been quite respectable We can see here though at the market that's going to pull back From the kind of from the september high and it's only kind of put only kind of regain Maybe say about half of the ground at last and it's very much kind of I can't really kind of seem to kind of crack the fifth day moving average in at 1847 Or at 118 50 that that price reached in there So while we were going to hold on to this level here from the august law at 116 62 It's likely that we could see the market hold up at the same time we'll need to break north Of that level at 118 50 to 50 the moving average before we can actually be kind of more confident That the kind of upward trend is going to continue So it's going to be in a bit of a sideways pattern a bit of a consolidation pattern here After coming in the back of the After the After they got a decent run it had which which kind of ran on steam in september notice how during the sell-off here the The macadamia the momentum portion of it was very much in negative territory Then I started to The negative momentum started to decline quite a bit And I swung back over to positive territory, but this hasn't really Moved in it moved moved much higher in terms of positive momentum So could be an indication that kind of the market is a bit kind of lackluster Isn't it's a whole lot? It's a lot of indecision out there and looking at the price action It's been also in a fairly tight range as well So you can also potentially if you go north of the fifth day moving average at 118 50 We then be looking up towards the late september high of kind of the 120 region and then of course The high of september itself of 122 92 and he moved south of this level here at 116 62 Could bring us back down towards 116 13 And then below that down towards 147 79 in this price here for the middle of july Having a look now at the at the pounds. Yep. Ozzy dollar. I'll happily look at that So the the broad trend for for the pound has been fairly positive Against against us daughter, but it's kind of Ever since coming off the the highest in september think these two the situation as as cool somewhat so as you could so whether This is going to be the move here is just a The move that we're seeing in here is just a bit of a correction after the kind of stellar move we saw in september or when there's actually beginning of something actually Before the turnaround has yet to be seen but as you can see that it's been It's been getting support from the fifth of the moving average here Comes into play in around the kind of 131 55 level And it stopped short here at the 100 a moving average at 130 17 and actually The fifth of the 100 a moving average actually provided a bit of support in here in late august early september So that that's going to be a key metric to keep an eye on so Why do we remain north of the 100 a moving average at 130 47? The outlook for cable is going to be is it could be positive But obviously we need to a couple of herds need to overcome before we can actually be more confident That the wider positive trend is going to continue. So the first kind of hurdle need to overcome With being at 133 37 which was uh, which was created on the In the middle of the month on the only a couple of Fridays go And then beyond that we were looking up towards 134 134 45 and then north of that again the september high at 136 59 But should we move south on the fifth of the moving average next except they have to keep an eye on for maybe 129 And then below that in the dirty moving average at 128 24 And also with this market hasn't actually hasn't traded south of the dirty moving average Since since august and it was that kind of major kind of push higher here just insured At the cable state north of the dirty moving average for the last set number of months Have you looked now at euro sterling? euro sterling As you as you saw here had a terrific run Had a bit of a quite a decent correction in in the month in the month of both august and september Um, they sell off the correction began in august. It's push push it back in september It's been kind of hanging around The the water day moving average which comes in play in around here as around the 89 40 region here It just happened to be south of it now And since our gains seem to be capped at the at the fifth day moving average Which are pretty much at the the 90 cents mark the um the 90 pence mark so It's basically going to get a break out of that in either direction It is a bit concerning though that we can see that that broadly speaking the price has become a pushing higher From same mid-october onwards, but notice how Positive momentum has been has been dipping So in fact the positive momentum is putting is declining here I'm an hour kind of back below the one or two moving average could be indication And we could we could be kind of looking to uh to retest the september lows Which which come into place in around this area here in around, uh, this level this the september low was um 87 46 so Given that we're now south of the water day moving average It's obviously uh, it's been an important metric the last couple of sessions because actually support from we're now south of it So we could be actually looking to kind of drift lower It is it is much of while keeping an eye on this uh this portion of the maxi indicator the momentum portion because a good indication Of what work where the kind of pressure is coming from is coming the bicellular cell side And broadly speaking the last few sessions is that the bicellular momentum has been in decline So it could be a sign that the ball is running out of steam I could look we could look to move lower to 88 55 and then south of that back down towards 87 38 Which is also not too far away from the turning moving average But if you do push higher the first level to watch out for is obviously going to be The fifth of the moving average in at 90 pence and then beyond that is looking back up towards the 92 26 area And then 92 97 region which is basically up around here. Uh, which is achieved back in august Just bring up the osia dollar now So look at the long chart here. First thing we can see is that the osia dollar When I drop back below the the 100 sorry the 100 sorry the 200 week moving average It's made a few attempts to kind of push up towards and hasn't really gotten quite there yet So that level is going to be a big move a level to watch out for If and when we get there at 79 24 Broadly speaking the push out that has been in place Well, try 20 since early 2016 coming up now on two years is still intact But this is obviously going to be a big hurt to keep an eye off for On the upside at 79 24 if you do move lower to keep that never to keep an eye off of the downside Will be the lower in october at 77 33 And others change the the chart size bring it to a daily chart and see what we've got what the daily chart is showing us As I mentioned so the move here in may is still uh, it's still pretty it's still basically intact We can see here that we've come up the highs of september This is the level I was referring to here the low the low in october at 77 33 while we remain north of that That's going to that's going to be uh, that that's that's going to be um, kind of going to be a policy a policy sign Let us watch out for major to the upside It's going to have to break north of the fifthly moving average Which comes to play just north of 79 and then beyond that we'll be looking towards 80 80 80 cents And then beyond that again looking to the august as of the september high rather Of uh of 81 81 25 By and large, I'll say that that the outlook for the for the Aussie dollar the Aussie dollar rather is uh Is is fairly positive like obviously keep in mind the strength of the u.s Dollar has is be something to keep an eye on so u.s politics, particularly that their taxation policy Is is worth paying attention to the next few sessions I'll have a look now at the u.s dollar versus the japanese yen and then look to wrap up The webinar, uh, so if you do have any crest any of the markets You want me to cover just feel free to shout them out in the next couple of minutes basically um Well, mr. Abbey's um snap election Play played off nicely. Mr. Abbey is uh, well abby nomics is named after him very aggressive monetary policy Uh, do kind of anything it takes to actually going to get the japanese economy Uh, kind of kick started and of course, uh, that that has actually was considerably weakened the japanese yen So as you can see here positive positive major push higher in the dollar versus japanese yen It's been in place since september. It's still on the go. It's pushed higher. It's taken out for an hour 11 that scene since july Notice how as the market was uh was selling off here Kind of a support from the trinity moving average in terms of price action The positive momentum indicator was um was in decline It actually turned negative here and not low and behold It's it's one higher. So the market is pushed higher to a volume of high. We swung to positive positive momentum So it's not so the direction and the power is clearly with the buyer So next level to watch out for to the upside and the dollar yen is going to be the july high at one fourteen forty nine And then beyond that look up towards the one one fifteen air priced price Tandal and then beyond that we see the march high of one fifteen fifty So these are left to keep an eye on for the uh for the u.s. Dollar about the japanese end to the upside Should he move south? Uh, we could get support from this price here from the One of the highs in july, uh, which comes which is actually the market has gapped north of at one thirteen fifty seven And then below that in around the one thirteen mark And then as you can see here the trinity moving average acts as a bit of support Uh for the market at its next leg higher So any any kind of deeper tracings you see in the dollar versus japanese yen may find support in at one eleven Seventy one eleven one eleven spot seventy five What i'll do now is always just going to run down and show you all other items that are on our platforms I've showed you uh the uh the week ahead Um also keep an eye out on the week ahead Is is found under the news and analysis section of the news analysis All the art some of the articles that we do we get posted to our news site, which of course goes here Some of the articles that we also do goes directly on insight and that is actually on the trading platform itself So you actually must be logged in to actually be those ones and to get the insight click on mark a pulse second tab down Insight what we also update uh several times throughout the day is the chart form It's basically taking a snapshot of the chart and we have some you know We may have some trend lines or some indicators on the chart and then a few words to describe our kind of um to To kind of voice our opinion uh what we think is going on on the chart And that that gets updated several times a day under Market pulse click on the third option down chart form. That's where you'd find chart form That gets done several times a day Also, if you want to have a more detail in terms of economic indicators and what's going on Think on the market pulse a fourth option down market calendar And that'll give you what's going on in terms of economic indicators to to expect I gave you a rundown of both The what what is the forecast what was the previous trading and then of course was the actual is out It'll be uploaded on time So give you a rundown of the major of uh economic indicators to keep an eye on make a certain manufacturing numbers of tomorrow We have a p-mine numbers out from the eurozone as a whole uh Just giving through uh Wednesdays update ifo from germany is going to be quite big consumer confidence Sorry cpi rather from from australia if you're looking at the aussie dollar obviously keep an eye on that UK GDP half nine on wednesday morning As always i have three for trading oil We we have um, we have the weekly oil numbers coming off from the um from the uh from the united states Uh also keep an eye on we have um looking here on thursday We obviously have the the ECB rate meeting 12 at 12 45 The press conference afterwards at half one is difficult to watch out for when i mentioned earlier on discussing the euro dollar It's also relevant for the for all for all um euro crosses, but The european central bank are currently purchasing 60 billion euros of bonds every single month. There's talk of the ECB Looking if you can change their language or maybe hint at um, how they go to alter their policy So we're not really expecting anything from the issue from the in terms of interest rate changes But we could hear an alteration in languages and language in vocabulary and terminology used at the ECB press conference Which is at half 12 on thursday And then of course on friday what to keep an eye on for at the we have us gdp numbers coming out at one sorry half one on friday so And then of course we also have the university of michigan consumer sentiment at three o'clock on friday As always i've seen as you manage to find us and log in on this On this webinar, uh, feel free to come to our other joining for other webinars and also in uh seminars So under the learn section on our website under webinars and events Scrolling down here. Uh, you will see that on wednesday this wednesday coming up at at, uh, 1930 7 30 p.m London time we have a webinar on five reasons to trade trade the trend If you happen to be in liverpool on thursday and you're at a loose end, uh, we have a free seminar Uh in liverpool on thursday night, uh, that is Thursday the 26th of october at 6 p.m sharp That is free free to attend if you're in the liverpool area feel free to attend my colleague michael cusin And allow a number of other cmc cmp employees are going to be at that event and then as always we have the 12 15 every single monday Is the webinar that i will be conducting I appreciate your time for for tuning in If you have any any questions feel free to contact us on twitter But that for in terms of my updates on every monday that is all for myself this week Thank you for tuning in and good luck