 Hello, and welcome to this session on transforming energy. I'm Afshan Urdakuladli moderating the debate this morning. We will talk about how energy assets can be deployed to shape a sustainable future in this part of the world specifically. How an effective transition to a more secure and sustainable and affordable energy system can be enabled is yet another question that we will be focusing on this morning and how reforms, energy reforms in this part of the world are redefining the regions. Social contract, that will be another question to keep in mind while we look at this broad transition sweeping across the MENA region. So while at it, we should perhaps don't even need to remind you that the MENA region is one of the largest supplier of energy. It has been the case for decades and it seems like that position will not be challenged for the foreseeable future, which is why it's important to have this conversation here at the World Economic Forum in Jordan. And we will do our best to address these large issues, which are important for the future of energy globally and regionally. And I would like to allow my, I would like to introduce my panelists to you who will be sharing their perspectives on the issues that I tried to outline broadly. And please allow me to introduce Mr. Javar Ali-Luaybi, Minister of Oil of Iraq, Mr. Majicza Farr, CEO of Crescent Petroleum, Mr. Dietmar Sirzorfer, CEO of Siemens MENA region, Mr. Sami Horebi, CEO of Environment MENA Power Systems and Mrs. Sara Moussa, founder of Shamsina here with us today. A brief note about just a housekeeping note. We hope to have our speakers present their perspectives on these issues and then towards the end of the debate we hope to open the floor for questions. So our audience here, please make sure that you have a pen and pencil and a notepad ready to take notes because you will have the opportunity to ask them to direct them to our speakers. So without further ado, I'd like to turn to you, Sara, and get your perspective on what's happening in the region in terms of the energy transformation. Where are things added? Where do we stand? First, thank you for having me here today and I'm really excited to delve into this topic. And I wanted to start off by a brief introduction of what Shamsina is for some context. So we construct solar powered water heaters by and for marginalized communities. We operate out of an unplanned district in Cairo. We train and employ local workers. We construct water heaters for the local community. And really what Shamsina has proven is that people can sort of take things into their own hands. They can create their own energy solutions. And they can do so in a way that is environmentally, economically, and socially sustainable. And in terms of the region, where do we stand? Where do you see the challenges and opportunities, while this transformation is taking place? Well, it's becoming more and more clear that traditional energy sources are not sustainable in the long term and that we need to explore sort of alternative solutions. And I think we're starting to do that. There are sort of grassroots success stories and the renewable energy landscape is sort of more decentralized and more community based and grassroots than the sort of traditional approach to energy. We still have some way to go, but I think we're on the path. Thank you, Sarah. And Dietmar, I'd like to get your perspective on this too, in terms of a regional big picture. What are the challenges and the opportunities and where do we stand at this moment? Thank you also for having me here and to invite me to this distinguished panel. It's really something that is driving the region, the MENA region, as you rightfully said. We are providing most of the energy for the world out of this region, but we are also consuming a lot of energy. There is a lot of growth in the region. Energy systems in the regions vary from country to country, but I think one common thing is for all of them that is that you want to have an affordable, reliable and environmental friendly energy system. Having that in mind, you need to look also in your existing infrastructures into the country. So there have been a growth over the last years and certain countries have grown into gas, certain countries are going now into renewables, and we believe that the mix of these energies is the right thing to do. So you need a mix out of traditional energies because you have an existing energy system and you can't swamp that away and say, I only go now for renewables, and therefore it's so important that you integrate both of them. Integration of both of them means also that you need to look very much on how do you distribute your energy and how do you bring your energy to the end customer, to the factories or wherever you are. And that means that you also look on the grid system and that you do also dare the real measures to increase efficiency also into the grid system. And talking about the various countries, they are at different states of course. When you look into, for example, the UAE where I live, I think we have a very high reliable energy system. The movement into renewable energy is clearly visible. We have seen projects there with very low spending on capex, so the best solar prices for generation of energy have been achieved in the UAE so far. They have a very reliable system behind that on gas and they are also diversifying in nuclear and in other energies. Going into a country like Egypt, they had in the past a very unreliable system. This system was in an efficiency and that's still across the whole meaner region, seeable in many countries, that was at a very low efficiency. So we had 30% plus to 40% efficiency in these energy systems. And that needed to be upgraded. So Egypt took then a decision to upgrade this system and to put it on a very high efficiency and also use the natural resource to gas in a much more efficient way. So integration of these older systems and use of efficient use, emission friendly use of gas resources is a key for this region. Majid, would you like to respond to the question that we have at hand here? It seems like there's the old, the new and the transformation and we're right at that point where that transformation is actually taking place. So from your perspective, the challenges and opportunities and whether we are doing enough and what else can be done? So I don't agree with the old and the new and I think the world is always in transformation and our sector is no different. I think if you look at what's happened in the US, that's all new. All the oil and gas they've added is not only new, it's high tech, it's new technology, it's new management, it's new systems that we didn't even know were possible a decade ago. It's transformed not only their production but their economy in the US and it's enabled the fastest drop in carbon emissions. And that wasn't renewables, that was the move from coal to gas. So it's actually dangerous to lump in all the fossil fuels together, there are very big differences and there are differences in use. There's a difference between energy use for transportation and energy use for electricity generation. I think looking at our region, the MENA region, I think we've got three challenges or problems. One, we are underperforming our potential. We have half the world's oil and gas here in this region. Only a third of the world production and only a sixth of a gas production. And we're actually losing out to these new technologies and emergence from the US and elsewhere. And why is that? It ties into our consumption patterns and the subsidies also, which is our second main challenge. We're used too much in many countries, I mean there have been reports showing Saudi in a few decades might not have any oil to export because of the incredible rise. I mean, we went from one million barrels a day of the domestic consumption up to like five, heading in that direction now. So that's the second key challenge we have because really the only form of clean energy is using less, 100% clean is the efficiency side. And some countries have made good moves in that direction but there's a lot more to be done. And again, no matter all the efficiency building standards or education you have, if you don't tackle the subsidies, the pricing, you won't really tackle that consumption problem. So we're getting high on our own supply to the point that it's affecting our regional competitiveness. And the third challenge as I see it is learning from the mistakes of others. As Bill Clinton says, look to the trend lines, not the headlines. This idea that we're in this new energy world, the reality is 80% plus of energy still comes from fossil fuels. 2% comes from new renewables, despite the tens of billions that have been invested. I totally agree with the fact that it could transform our region in terms of more local delivery. Our region still suffers from many people who don't have any energy poverty is a big challenge in our region, which is not a challenge in Western countries or the OECD. And I think renewables is clearly part of the solution, but it needs to be done looking at, as Dietmar said, the affordability and reliability. If you look at some countries like Germany, for example, that said we don't want any fossil fuels, and we cancel nuclear also for a local political reason, and suddenly they're importing coal from the US. And they have rising emissions and the most expensive energy now in the OECD, whereas the US, by shifting from coal to gas, thanks to the private sector, has the lowest energy costs in the OECD and the lowest energy or carbon emissions, sorry, since the early 90s. So I think we need, interesting the UAE put out its vision 2050 for energy. And it's about 40% gas and 40% renewables. Because you often need the gas-fired power to back up the renewables. A lot of people don't realize that, and if you don't do that, then you import coal to burn for, and what's the point? What's the point of forcing German consumers to spend so much on renewables every year? And then you're importing coal. I mean, it's like eating 10 Big Macs and going to the gym. What have you actually achieved? Okay, Minister, there's a reason I wanted to hear these different perspectives to give our audience a chance to understand the underlying dynamics and this debate, and then turn to you to get the national context. And then hear your perspective on the regional dynamics. Mojit says it's, in some circumstances it's like eating all these Big Macs and going to the gym. And there is also, there are different perspectives on how it's being done and how it's supposed to be done now, this transformation. So I want to hear from you, what, from your perspective, the forces that drive this transformation and the national context for your country. Thank you. Well, I agree really with Mr. Majid, what he has stated in some aspects. And the challenges within the regions lie in the absence, not complete absence, but let us say weak aspects of managing this energy sectors and adapting the way of relying on oil and gas energy sectors as it is something that will last forever. And not learning lessons from the past or slide down on the prices. Because during the 80s, the energy sector oil and gas experienced sharp decline in the prices. And most of the countries were hit by that really. And that was one of the reasons, the differences between Iraq and Kuwait and so on. So it created political hostilities. Then the prices regained again and everything went smoothly. And they forget about what happened before. And continue that the system is getting this energy and just for financial sources, okay? And not planning what is after and how to handle it and how to care for it. Now with the recent slide in the prices, as you see that we all felt the impact and many countries hit. And I agree with that UAE has put good scenarios, good plan for the future. And as Mr. Majid said, the renewable 40% and others from the hydrocarbon resources. But again, some people look at the renewable as something substitute really for the oil and gas energy, which is not a fact, it's not a truth. It needs to be really looked at thoroughly. This is bad education because some people think or some countries that renewable energy will be a sort of substitute for oil and gas, which cannot be. Oil and gas in my opinion will last for decades to come. And it will stay as needed energy and sustainable energy. And this region will continue to contribute for more and more, you know, for this. But as I said, the most important thing is management and the planning for this energy. The planning is not easy. As far as I am, you know, as far as Iraq, my country is concerned. We rely about 97% of our revenue on oil and gas, revenue from mostly oil. And we spend lots of energy share on electricity generation. And again, this is not being well looked after. It's not well managed. It's only feeding the electrical power station with hydrocarbon, gas, oil and these things and let things go. You know, as if passing days, just passing time with no real, you know, no genuine study and how we tackle it. Are we going to stay on this mode of operation, this mode of just feeding the electrical stations with oil and gas and then, you know, not doing anything and ultimately things will collapse. It's not collapsing completely, but it's as if, you know, leaving things as they are and the destiny. As I said the other day that the trouble with this region is the poor planning and the poor planning that we, okay, the revenue of oil is continuous and people are living in good standard and these things. And once there is a shock in this energy, then everybody try to sort of, you know, wake up and say, oh, this was going on. I don't have breakfast. I don't have, you know, what should I do? Then after, you know, the things get back to their bit of normality then back to sleep. So it's like that I look at it like, you know. Is there not a way to fix that though? Because you're pointing to this habit. And that's what I understand from what you're saying. And you're pointing to this lack of planning or our problems with planning as part of the problem. So I'm curious what your recipe is because I also saw my other panelist nodding and some smiling. So I'd like to get your responses too. What's the solution to that? So what do you mean? In terms of having better planning habits because this clearly ties into the whole picture. So I just wanted to hear from you because everyone else was nodding and smiling. How can we get better at that? Since you're the minister doing most of the planning and you sit with the decision makers. I'm doing my best to, you know, minister is not enough. It's a state, it's a state of planning. That's what I wanted to hear from you. That's why I wanted to hear. Myself, I'm shouting and trying to do something. But this is not enough really in a chaotic situation like, you know, because the country is different. They look at the minister that bring, just get the oil production high and the gas and let things go. Let life go as it is, you know. Sami, I wanted to turn to you because we made you wait a little bit, but here we have the full picture. It seems like from energy poverty to our problems with planning, this is our picture. So I wanted to get your perspective on how these energy assets can be used for a sustainable future. And then we'll move on to the technology aspect with you. Okay, well, I appreciate going last because it gave me a chance to hear the insights of my fellow panelists. And one thing I noticed is we're saying renewable energy or hydrocarbon based energy. In reality, energy is very agnostic. People don't care where their kilowatt hours are coming from, whether it's from gas, coal or from the sun. The end user typically doesn't care much. It ultimately comes down to cost and price per kilowatt hour. So to quote Majid, quoting Bill Clinton, we take a look at trend lines. And from 2007 to today, the cost per kilowatt hour of solar energy has gone down approximately 80%. So when I started the company in 2007, we built and operate solar power plants. The cost per kilowatt hour for a plant was around 35 US dollar cents. Today, we're down to closer to 3 US dollar cents in certain power plants that are being built. Most recently in Dubai, there was a plant in Abu Dhabi at 3 US dollar cents per kilowatt hour. So that's great news for the end user because, of course, we're seeing a low cost in energy. Now, solar, when it's being produced, can only really cater to some of the peak demand, which is in the middle of the day when the sun is shining, which could create some challenges to grid. So again, there was the example of Germany that was cited and the challenges they face now having to import coal. Germany was a leader in solar. I think they bear the cost to a lot of the rest of the world who are beneficiary of installing tremendous amounts of capacity when solar was more expensive between 2004 and 2011. The majority of their installed capacity came in. That cost, as I mentioned, declined massively over that period of time. So had they done what they did today, they wouldn't be facing that same kind of challenge in terms of cost. Looking at trend lines moving forward, renewables are very complimentary to grids. We're displacing peak energy. And right now, we definitely need to be part of a balanced grid where we're using multiple elements. We're using gas. We're using nuclear in some parts of the region. And it is a portfolio of power that is required in order to ensure that we have a stable grid across the board. One trend line that we really need to take a look at and take very seriously in the region, which is quite dependent on oil and gas revenues as well, is the advancements that are taking place in storage technologies. When I started the company, actually between 2011 to 2015, China's capacity of solar module production went up six times, which was a huge contributor to the huge decline in the cost of solar energy. That same kind of increase, which is a six times increase in capacity, is occurring in lithium-ion batteries today. So between 2016 and 2020, we are going to have a 6x increase in lithium-ion battery capacity. We're in the middle of it, actually, as a solar integrator. We're seeing massive declines in the cost of solar plus storage. What does that mean? Renewable base load energy. We are in the next 10 years going to be at a point where for probably somewhere around five US dollar cents, we'll be producing 24-hour electricity, very consistent without the challenges you have of having to import other sources of fuel. And that becomes a value proposition where you are producing your own electricity in your own country without having to depend on foreign sources of feedstock, not even touching on the environmental impact. So there is going to be a huge transformation in the next 10 years with the advancements of storage technologies. I think the impact in terms of the cost and the value of oil is going to be something we have to take very seriously in a region that is quite dependent on the revenues of hydrocarbon. So I think we need to take a look at this, and understand what the implications of these timelines are. And both from a technology perspective, from a capacity perspective, and from an economic planning perspective, see how we proceed with this new reality. And let's turn to you, Dietmar, the new technology and the critical innovation areas in the field of power generation that allows for this transformation. What's new and what's taking place? I went with Sami when he said storage is something that we have to work on and I think we are also there at the beginning of an avenue. We have today battery storage, which gives us maybe in an hourly range the possibility to store. We are also looking into possibilities to store energy on a longer range. When you go into days and weeks, then there are also solutions with hydrogen. We are working on that. So you generate out of solar energy, you hydrolize up and you generate hydrogen. Hydrogen you can use then again to burn it and make electricity out of it. But you can also use it in other forms. You can use it as a chemical feedstock. A better chemical feedstock, you can use it also to fuel cars. We have fuel cell cars. That's also something that maybe evolves over the next years. So at the end of the day, there is more than one use for hydrogen. So that's the technology that is evolving and is coming up now. Looking into the existing energy systems, we definitely believe that still there is a lot of possibility to increase efficiency. So to upgrade existing systems, energy systems, and to develop new technology to further enhance, for example, also gas turbines. Imagine you have an energy system that has 30% efficiency and you then put a new gas turbine in and you have 60% efficiency. With the same amount of gas you can reduce double the power. Imagine all the growth that we still see in energy in the region can be managed with the same amount of feedstock that you have today in terms of primary energy. But also technologies like digitalization, which is also a scheme of the whole Economic Forum, are evolving very much into the power industry. So to run existing power plants also more efficient, to run the grid system more efficient, to manage better the demand side and the generation side to integrate them more tightly. These kind of technologies are evolving more and more and finding their way in the region also. And some of the countries are even leading on that. And that's something that will change also the way how we use energy. And that will also give us possibilities, what you said, Margie, to better manage our user's job energies in the households, in the industry and elsewhere. And that's something that we really see the energy side evolving at the moment. And Minister, I'd like to turn to you about the same question. How is the region doing in terms of embracing new technologies to become more efficient? How is the region doing? How is Iraq doing? Would you like to share your perspective on that? Well, I myself really believe that things should go together. I mean, the renewable energy should be looked after and should be developed, you know. And at the same time, the technology of oil and gas, the present energy should be developed. At the same time, they go parallel and other renewable aspects like this. Nuclear and other sources should go together because nobody can really foresee the future. I remember during the 70s and during the 73 war, there was a bureau in London, the new energy bureau headed by Dr. Yemani of Saudi Arabia, then oil minister of Saudi Arabia. And they had really conflicting reports. One of the reports indicated that the oil prices would go over $100, which happened really. And the other reports say that once it gets to $100, then the nuclear energy will come up and the nuclear energy will take about 70% of the energy portion, you know. And then the oil prices will go down and down, which really did not happen after 50 years of their prediction. And the nuclear energy now is not contributing much to that. It's contributing, but not as to as forecasted really. So all in all, and the same for coal, some sources predicted that coal will be the dynamo and there will be the strong source for the renewable energies, a source that could really substitute somehow for oil and gas and did not happen. So all in all, I think all they should go together. I don't think that the electrical cars I think will be really much of impact on oil and the dynamo of oil and gas. It will affect it maybe a bit, but it will stay as dominant source of energy. Sure, on the question of technologies, Shamsina approaches this by creating very simple and affordable technologies. And we are low tech in a field that I think assumes that you need something very high tech to sort of be effective. So Shamsina's design is innovative. It's user centric. It's easy for its target population to build, to use, to install. It's cheap. It's durable. And I think there is a lot of potential for these low tech solutions and that they're often sort of overlooked in the field in favor of sort of discovering the next new thing. And Majid Jafar, I'd like to turn to you because while this transition is taking place, it's also important to see what the private sector can do, kind of do more and how can it be more in most. I'd like to hear from you what you think about that. So again, turning to our region and I totally agree with this point that the minister made about strategic planning. Energy, the scale of investments required and the horizon means we do need long term strategic planning. And it's not just in our region. I don't even see elsewhere in the world that governments do this much. You know, it comes to military hardware. There's a lot of long term informed strategic planning. Energy is just as important. It's the lifeblood of the economy. It's so fundamental that it does need that sort of planning. I mean, the UAE's 2050 plan and clear down to the number allocations or expectations of the split, that's pretty rare. I don't see that in Europe. In the US, what happened is despite government, not because of government, because the private sector there took over and actually the market determined where things ended up. So I think that's key is on the one hand getting our governments to really have this strategic planning, but at the same time to actually give more room for the private sector in all aspects of the energy sector to invest. So the government's role should be in revenue maximization and deciding how best to use those revenues and managing the cycles better, as excellence he said. But at the same time really creating the regulatory framework to enable investment, whether it's at the micro level, local, or in larger pieces of the infrastructure piece that need to be addressed. In terms of demand, again, we need to split. I mean, you know, Sammy gave some very good explanations of what's going on on the renewable side in terms of electricity generation, but then made an assertion about oil demand. Oil is not used for power generation. It shouldn't be. It is in some countries in our region, a few, but generally speaking that's not, and it's not for passenger cars. I mean, the demand growth is not in passenger cars. The demand growth, the number one, the biggest is actually petrochemicals. This is an oil product. This is an oil product. This is an oil product. A lot of what you're wearing is oil products. You know, freight, all these trucks going across Asia, shipping, air travel and transportation. None of those have renewable solutions at the moment. So we need to split. I mean, if we're talking gas and renewables and other forms for electricity generation, it's quite a different discussion from looking at transportation. So we can't just group them all in together. And again, I agree with what is actually said. Electric cars, they're really cool and they're getting a lot of attention. They're 0.8% of the market. And what's the point of having electric car if the electricity is produced using coal? You're having a coal-fired car. You may move the pollution outside the city. It's good for you as a city dweller, but if we care about climate change and the global impact, that's not actually moving the needle. We need to look at the generation of the electricity. So today in the U.S., a new petrol-fired car with the new emission standards, which are more than twice as efficient as they were 20 years ago, is actually cleaner in most states, California accepted, than an electric car. So what's really changed things in terms of emissions is the emission standards. I don't see Trump changing those, despite what his views on climate change might be. The truth is cars are very different today than they were in the past. So again, we need to look beyond the headlines. I want to make sure that we have enough time for the questions too, but before we do that, Dietmar, if you could share with us Germany's example too. Germany has been through this. And are there any lessons to learn from that example? There are definitely lessons to learn, and much that you mentioned already. Germany took around a century change and took on the German energy vendor, as we call it. And they decided to clearly move in direction of renewables. At that time, they had also no plan. I would say there was not a plan. There was the plan to say we go into renewables, but there was no plan also to use the grid and to extend the grid, and that's what they suffer still today. So the grid has to be extended because we have a lot of wind turbines in the North Sea and in the Baltic Sea and the energy is... The load centres are in the South of Germany, so the energy transportation is still a challenge. So to have a long-term planning is one of the key learnings, and that is also what we discussed today, to have that in mind. What they have definitely done with the energy when they paved the way for solar energy. I think that it got really acquainted to where we are today with solar energy was part of the success story, but there is a big price tag attached to that with the German consumer. The households are paying at the moment, not the industry. The households are paying that. The price is about 30 Eurocent for the kilowatt hour, or a dollarcent for the kilowatt hour, which is a huge burden, of course, in the economy. On the other side, as you rightfully said, the CO2 emissions didn't went down too much, but it created a new spirit in the whole community also, and that is, I think, what is taking off now and will change the energy landscape of Germany again. Because we had, at that time, we had four or five big utility providers in Germany. Today they are still there, but they play a minor role. There are more than 1.2 million generators now, which are generating electricity. That opens up complete new business models. That opens up business models also in terms of storage, so people can combine together their energy generation. They have a rooftop or some windmills, and they combine it and they sell energy, and they use also their own energy, which is standard to lower prices. New models are coming up, now new business models, which are helping them also to manage the cost that has been, of course, going outrageous with the whole energy as such. I think on the long run this is a very success. When you look on the 10, 15 years, where the decision has been made, there is a high cost attached to it. And at this point, I'd like to turn to you here, sitting around us and listening carefully to this conversation here. Anybody, if you have any questions, please. This is the time for you to take the opportunity. Anyone? And behind me, I can't see anyone. Yes, sir, please. Sorry, I can't turn back, but please identify yourself and state your question. Anyone else? My name is Hashim Zaabi. I'm an entrepreneur in the renewable energy and we have a product called WaveX. It's the energy trading platform. So our vision is to, with Dubai and Dua collaborating with us, is to push that energy generation onto the citizens and let them do the initial investments. And because we are highly dense with solar energy, we are predicting that the residents, if they have the volume, can produce more than what they consume and then they can sell it to the high-consumed entities or private sector. So from your perspective in the long run, do you think that those companies that actually produce energy for the households become obsolete and just the Uber for transforming those energies between different individuals? Okay, anyone? Just a comment on that here. I think it's the right way to go in the direction of saying that we have also the end users and the households to use them and produce energy. I think that's also what the German energy when it tells is a good measure to do, to have a platform where you exchange then and trade also this energy. That's also a model that is in the meantime in Germany very much established. We have the German Strom Exchange or Power Exchange in Leipzig. You can buy in the meantime on a daily, in the future on an hourly and maybe on a minute rate power at that power exchange and the prices are fluctuating like we see it in a trade exchange. This is good because this brings efficiency into the system. So I think that's definitely the right move. Seeing the sheer magnitude of energy that we still use and that also needs to be replaced in the whole region, I don't think that with a pure solution with households or whatever, we will come to a stage that they will replace all the traditional utilities because at least according to studies that we have done and they are in line with the international studies, the energy demand or the energy generation capacity in the whole MENA region is at the moment at 290 gigawatt, that will increase to 480 something, whatever it will be in the next 15 years. There is a lot of replacement. Do all these new generation now with such kind of ideas? I think that's simply from the magnitude to sizeable. Sarah, did you want to respond to that? So in addition to the, I mean beyond the sort of practicality of it, I do think that the concept itself is a very interesting one and as technology develops and it becomes more feasible that it could be a very transformative practice. I mean one of the things it does as a starting point is sort of create a sense of accountability and have people sort of measure what they are using and what they are creating. So it's a really interesting model. My name is Sam Arjudi, I'm the chairman of two companies that developed a wind farm and a solar farm and were the first to be commissioned and connected to the grid. My question is, by the way we share something, your company is called Shamsina, my company is called Shamsuna. My question is we're all aware of the fluctuations and prices of oil and gas and we've seen these fluctuations and prices go up to 100 and over 100 dollars in the past few years. With renewables the prices have been going down and you've talked about that. We haven't seen any fluctuations, we've just seen them come down to, as you correctly stated, about 80%. How do we foresee the future? Because I don't think the prices are going to be fluctuating like oil and gas. Where will the prices of solar and wind and other renewables be in the next few years? Especially that with the advances of technology you can harvest more energy out of these renewables. Thank you. Thank you, that's for Sami Horibi, that question. Sure, go ahead. We believe in something that was, it's a theory from BCG in the 60s called the experience curve. Every time you double global capacity of production of a technology the cost goes down by 20%. So we treat it like Moore's Law and in the renewable industry it's called Swanson's Law. Swanson's Law has perfectly been applied. So as we see continued increase in installed capacity just without any technological advancements just in increased capacity, manufacturing efficiencies I think banking, engineering, everything really just draws down the price. There are some disruptive concepts that are taking place right now like the storage, both the hydrogen side of it or just the lithium ion side of it. We think that there will be a continued decline. The pace of the decline will be dependent on how quickly the global markets as well as the regional market install additional solar onto the grid. It's gone down much more quickly than any of the IEA's predictions any industry predictions. Nobody has been right in terms of guessing how quickly solar has gone down. We think the same is going to apply to the storage side of things. I'm not an expert on wind but I know as there is additional capacity coming online and even things like the banking system and lending becoming more sophisticated to these things it's not just the technology, it's also the financial community and the regional financial community becoming more comfortable with the technologies and comfortable with lower returns even on the investments. I think we will see a continued trend decreasing in the cost of technology. I don't think we can get to zero but we keep getting closer and closer on a kilowatt hour cost. I just really just small elaborations. There is not much knowledge and education about renewable energy. Lots of people think that renewable energy, we have plentiful of sun, sand, wind and these things. Why don't we get this energy from the gift of God gave us? This is not really right because it costs lots sometimes. In Iraq we had the experience in these cells, the sun cells to generate electricity and the other day I saw that the cost almost twice as that of the oil, the crude and gods really. They make what cost us about one million dollars while the cells of the sun and these things cost about 1.5 and so on. I was shocked really and when I went deep into this it needs a lot of investment, even the operation of it is not easy because it needs regeneration and so on. People think that is something available, let's get it. So it needs a lot of education and knowledge about this. I saw it first. Thanks. I would like to put some considerations on the table first of all that the cost of solar... Sorry, I'm Andrea Panizzo, NL Green Power of NL Group. It's a utility. Some considerations. First of all cost of solar energy and wind reached 24 dollars per megawatt hour in Abu Dhabi and Dubai and 29 for wind in Morocco. And installation costs of solar is today is about 0.6, 0.7 million euros per megawatt and wind is around one. By considering these values, considering that many utilities like Total, Shell, Stat Oil, Exxon turned into renewables. They were oil companies. My consideration is that the transformation is already in place and this, let's say, evident everywhere. And it's coming also here with the list. There are many countries like Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Emirates, Jordan here. That introduced new schemes and new tenders for renewables. So I think transformation is already here. And the next transformation we are facing in Europe, is transformation after renewables, which is transformation of the grid. So we're speaking about smart meters, smart grids, digitalized grids in order to make the grid sort of platform for the customers. So how do you see these transformations? It's for all the, but in particular for Siemens. I agree with you that these transformations are happening. I mean, it's evidently seeable that the companies are moving in that direction and that's also, I think, what the panel elaborated on, that this transformation is on the move and that what we call energy mix is still there. So the companies, and you mentioned in particular the international oil majors, that they are moving into renewables, but they are still also in the oil business. They are exactly showing the mix. And I couldn't agree more on your statement on the grid. That's a very important thing to look, and I mentioned it also earlier, that you look on the grid in connection with your generation because sometimes this is forgotten. People look on the generation. What can we do in solar? What can we do in wind? And then you forget to bring the energy finally to your consumers and therefore it's so important that you do this grid integration with that, that you have the right measures in place in terms of size of the grid but also in terms of platform so that you integrate it to your end customers so that you manage it in a different way. And absolutely agree with you on your statement that this is happening at the moment. We can do one last question, no one from there. Okay, you go ahead. Nadira Sves, Professor of Medicine, University of Illinois, United States. We use energy a lot in medicine, whether it's in imaging techniques or treating cancer cells or radiation therapy. It saves lives, but at the same time I'm thinking about sustainable sources of energy and whether there has been a cost-effective models and health safety models built in to study the possibility of risks of occupation on health related to that. So while the emission test standards are great, but I still see in my clinic a lot of occupational lung diseases related to that. So my concern is are we prepared to deal with the health consequences and do we know what is the safest in the future in terms of health risks with sustainable energy? Thank you. I'm not an expert on this, but I found a very interesting report that just came out two days ago ranking these health crises and air quality. And the UK performed really, really badly. I mean, predictably in some ways you've got 60 million people on a small island and so on. And actually countries in our region, despite scoring badly on energy efficiency because of air conditioning and subsidized pricing like the UAE and Qatar actually scored quite well on air quality and number. And we actually looked at deaths. It looked at deaths per 100,000 as a result of air quality. So the fact that that's now being measured and analyzed and feeding into this energy debate, the health aspects I think is very important beyond just the climate change and sustainability on a global level. I mean, there we, you know, the three biggest things are the shift from coal to gas. The emergence of renewables is important, but it makes no sense to do that in isolation of the shift from coal to gas. And then using less, you know, efficiencies in many countries have a long way to go. And then the third is the whole, you know, the rainforest. I mean CO2 is a system. You've got production and consumption. And when we grew up, it was all about saving the rainforest. Nobody talks about it anymore. Creating maybe some market system where countries that have that resource actually get a value in sustaining it. And at the annual meeting in Davos, we heard about some new genomic engineering approaches to actually create cash crops that consume much more CO2 than normal, up to five times more. So we need to look at the consumption as well as the emissions. We have only a few minutes left before we end the conversation. So I would like to go back to our main guiding question, which is how we can imagine this transformation in a way that it helps us secure a sustainable future. So I'd like to get your final remarks on that question, which was our main question. And then let's go around like that. And I'm sure those of you who didn't have a chance to ask your questions, our panelists will be available afterwards. So Ibar, let's start with you. I think what I learned today in this panel and what we discussed is that we have to do a long-term planning. We have to look on holistic on the energy system to supply reliable affordable power with low emission standards. As I said earlier, this goes hand in hand that we also look into the subsidies in my opinion so that there should be no subsidies because that drives inefficiencies. We should really get rid of subsidies or very low if you want to enable something. And that I think leads then to a good energy system. And in particular in the countries where we are in the MENA region, we have to look country by country how we do that. So this planning needs to be country by country. There is no recipe that we can take from one to the other and say, this is how you should do it. Minister. I agree that as I stated that the energy system needs to be looked at carefully and extensively and manage well and to look at the changes really carefully because we cannot say that this sect is going to be the dominant substance and we leave the others. And as I said that they all go together. I mean the renewable energy, other factors and so on, they go together. The oil and gas sector should be looked after carefully and the management of this sector is very, very important. As I said that renewable energy is not always of great impact as people think because it has cost, it has a lot of difficulties, it has a lot of challenges like the oil and gas really. And if you look at the gas as clean energy, then it has good future really for even better sometimes in some parts of the renewable energy. And the gas here in this region was neglected for a long time and it kept on flaring and burning for decades really. Now it's moving in a good direction but not enough. As I'm saying in my country we burn a lot of gas quantities and we burn about 60% of our production of associated gas. So this is really, this is energy, clean energy, good energy. So all in all if things manage well then that results would be positive. So I totally echo both the strategic long-term planning and the holistic approach and I would add to that the importance of more flexibility with our governments here in the MENA region in terms of investment models to get private sector investment in every part of the chain. Sami Khourybi and then very quickly Sarmosa. Just to add a renewable perspective to it I think we shouldn't underestimate the pace of change. The reality as it's happened in many industries in the past, most recently you could say with telecommunications and the adaptation of first the mobile phone smartphone, the change when I think the cost is more effective with decentralized sources of energy and the technology is something which is very much of value to the end user happens a lot more quickly than we expect and then most of the predictions predict. And we're seeing it happen in the energy industry. There is a real shift in terms of technology really being applied to the energy industry both in the United States example that was cited in terms of fracking and getting gas out at a more cost effective fashion or in the renewable industry with the real scaling of our industry and massive drop in the cost. So understanding how quickly things are moving it's not like the old days where it would take years for the impact of something to occur it's often in much shorter periods of time so the decline is going to continue to cost and hopefully one day will lead to energy access to 100% of the region. Today there's still 12% of the region that does not have access to energy and decentralized renewable sources could be the solution for that. Sarah, very quickly a few words from you too. Sure, so His Excellency mentioned earlier that energy becomes more visible when there's a problem, when there's an issue. And the topic of subsidies has also come up and I found in my work that those most willing to embrace renewable or alternative sources are those with low to no access to energy and in terms of subsidies I think until people sort of start internalizing the actual costs of energy and the environmental costs of traditional energy sources that there really will be no push to finding an alternative. So that's something that I think we'll start seeing as the discussion of subsidies progresses. Thank you, thanks to all of you to our panelists and our audience for being here. This brings us to the end of our session on transforming energy. Thank you for watching.