 The following is a presentation of TFNN. The morning markets kickoff with your host, Tommy O'Brien. Good morning everybody. I'm Tommy O'Brien, coming to you live from TFNN Wednesday morning just after 9 a.m., December 27th. We've got three trading days left in the year 2023. We kick things off. You've got the S&P flat to the tick right now, trading at 48.25 NASDAQ 100. You're up by 1.10% trading up 20 points, 17,103. You've got the Dow right now, slightly in the red, off by 19 points, 37,875. And the Dow, excuse me, the Russell, up by 6 points, 2,088. Bitcoin, been quite a year for Bitcoin, 42,895. You're off of the lozi yesterday. You're up technically $750 at 42,895 crude. Quite the acceleration yesterday. No geopolitical risk. Seems to be ratcheting up. See the volatility even this morning at 8 o'clock. We got some volatility to almost 74. We're back to 75.22. How about gold catching a bit? Gold up $10 to 2,080, if you haven't tried out the gold report yet, folks. I was listening to my dad show last night talking about the dollar. And boy, he had some pretty big numbers on the dollar in terms of where that may potentially trade lower to. Let's jump to the dollar index. That would be quite a boost for gold, of course. You're talking about consistent lower lows and lower highs, right? Check out this pullback, man. Check out the reversal we've had since basically November 1st. November 1st, you had a 107 handle. We're pushing almost a 100 handle this morning. I think he was talking about 99 and then 94. Gold, of course, you get the dollar action there. Remember, the Fed hasn't even started to cut yet. Now, a lot of that cut priced in when you look at the dollar, et cetera. You look at where we are in yields right now. You're talking about a 10-year yield under 3.85%. Under 3.85%, right? You jump over the 10-year. We're positive by six ticks. We're pushing 113 right now, 112, 29. On the 10-year, you get the 30-year up 23 ticks at 125 on the dot. Make it 24 ticks in the positive. You talk about it, man. We jump over to that dollar index this morning. Down 19 on a shorter term basis as we took a look at. I mean, it just continues, right, even this week. Look at this week, as in one week removed, right? Going back to last Thursday. Sunday or Friday, you come into the close at 101.80. Wouldn't take long if we're pushing almost a half of a full point, as in we just traded down 50 pennies this week in continued trend action. And we'll talk to our man, Teddy Cakes, that at 40 past the hour. Teddy Roots, he had standing Tiger Forex report every week. We'll talk some currencies. We'll talk some commodities. We'll talk some yields, I'm sure, as well. Maybe some crude in there, of course. All right, where do we kick things off? This one's an interesting one, in terms of just larger issues at stake for AI. New York Times suing Microsoft and Open AI, alleging copyright infringement. They're talking about that AI tools use its content without permission. The battle is on. This played out a little bit with some of the actors, right? With the screen actors, Guild and stuff like that. Basically, the studios want to be able to use their name and likeness or image. And what's happening is you have these huge AI databases training on other information. And what's eventually going to happen is that by training on the faces of the screen actors or by delivering this content in a different way, but it is all funneling to a private business under the guise of a nonprofit, right? But nonetheless, going to be interesting to see how this one plays out. In a complaint file Wednesday, the Times said, the technology companies exploited its content without permission to create their AI products, including chatbot, chatGPT. Who knows where this goes on the legal front here? As we are just touching on some issues that are going to be difficult. Microsoft, excuse me, Facebook has been dealing with this a little bit, right? And they have actually started paying some of those companies, news companies in particular, as they deliver their articles, basically. Microsoft down a dollar, almost, down about 75 cents on some of that action this morning. No real huge reaction, right? You jump over to Google shares, some of the Magnificent 7, they're flat this morning. You get the NASDAQ 100 up by 20 points. If you missed the program yesterday, folks, go over it, because when I was going over these A to B CDDs, I was looking at it again last night, you know, pretty cool how these potentially set up. Microsoft, yeah, you got to put it back on that three-year weekly. That's your A to B CDD, folks. Most of them beginning in the beginning of the year, your A point at the lows, your B point up here when we peaked out in July, your C point that pulled back to the October lows. And your D point is pushing these equities about 20% higher, which is pretty remarkable Apple included in that conversation. We jump over to Nvidia shares. It's quite a year for them. Nvidia trading up a few dollars almost in the pre-market to 495, is Nvidia gonna close out the year at like the tick high? They're pretty close, man. We got 505 is the tick high. We started the year below 150 for Nvidia shares. Jump over to some of the other chip makers, Intel, been quite a year for them, man. They've doubled in share prices. Well, look at that acceleration, pushing $50 right now for Intel shares. All right, let's see how some of the banks are trading this morning. Look at these runs, man, everywhere. JP Morgan, you're gonna be down a bit. Bank of America, just taking a look at the year in review. It's a pretty remarkable year across the board. Take a look at bonds. I mean, how about it? Basically bonds are gonna finish the year flat. Saw a tweet the other day about that. And bonds just gonna finish the year, basically almost where we were at the beginning of the year. You talk about some volatility, man. We've come a long way. But what has happened is, remember where we were in the beginning of the year, right? The market had gotten ahead of itself. Things changed in May when you had a huge pullback in price, yield spiked. The market figured out that we were not over inflation as we had projected. Things got a little dicey, economic numbers, maybe getting a little dicey in there. And then what happened though? Over the last three months or so, we've gotten a little bit of a turn. Inflation has played out, as some have said. They just pulled back. And now we just have to see if that trend can continue from three, three and a half. But what's so interesting is, is that the Fed is at five and a half. So they're gonna give themselves room to cut. And I think it's probably coming in March, man. And we don't get a ton of economic data before that March meeting. March 20th, I mean, we maybe get, what do we get? I have to look at it. One or two months of economic data prior to their meeting on March. We might get December, January and February, as I say it. So maybe you're looking at three months of data. It would have to be pretty harsh for the Fed to argue that they probably need to be at almost a 5.5% restrictive rate policy right now. They're gonna argue that they can bring it down and be at four and a half to 5% and still be very restrictive and make sure inflation is under control. But nonetheless, that's where we've played this game before. So don't think we're out of the woods. There are risks still present. Even if you have a market bias that you think that that is where we're going, be aware that things are still not as sound as they usually are when it comes to inflation, right? And that it could rare back up. We've been helped with crude immensely. You could see crude having some problems there. If we have a weaker dollar, what's gonna happen? Imports are gonna cost more money. That could weigh on things as well. There are some lagging indicators out there that have the potential as we kind of revert out of these higher interest rates and try and repair what's happened in certain sectors of the economy. All right, come on back folks. We'll talk about some of the other actions. We got three days left in 2023. And don't forget we're talking to our Manatee Kegstad at 40 past the hour. Always good conversation. Stay tuned folks, we'll be right back in three minutes. If you're looking for potential trading setups in the stock market, then Rocket Equities and Options Report is a newsletter you should try. Tommy O'Brien delivers options and equity trades when the markets present them using a combination of fundamentals and technicals. Sign up for Rocket Equities and Options Report today with a 30 day money back guarantee so you have nothing to risk. For all the details and to start your subscription today, visit the front page of TFNN.com. TFNN, educating investors. Everything in the universe is governed by the Fibonacci sequence. This mathematical principle is responsible for everything from the most aesthetically pleasing artwork to patterns in the stock market. To stay on top of stock patterns you can take advantage of, sign up for the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter at TFNN.com. When you subscribe, you'll get a weekly report from veteran day trader Larry Pesavento on stocks you need to pay attention to and you can trust Larry's analysis. After all, he's got 45 years experience as a day trader. Larry will also provide daily charts, videos and data on the key markets that he's tracking. Expect notifications from Larry on market movement you need to act on at any time. First time subscribers also get a 30 day money back guarantee. If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. Subscribe to the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter today. TFNN.com, educating investors. TFNN has launched the Tiger's Den, hosted at Discord. TFNN has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours, the Tiger's Den. Available to all Tigers and Tigresses for just $1 for the year. There's no catch or added costs when you join our community of traders. Sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders. Just visit the front page of TFNN.com. Steve Rhodes started his trading career as a student almost 20 years ago and the student has now become the master. Steve won the prestigious Timer of the Year Award in 2018 and barely missed that mark again in 2019, finishing at number two for the year, an amazing accomplishment. Steve Rhodes is committed to sharing his techniques and knowledge with anyone who wants to learn and he shares his vast amount of trading knowledge every day in his Mastering Probability newsletter. Steve's award-winning newsletter, Mastering Probability, is delivered every trading day with updates throughout the afternoon. Sign up for Steve's market newsletter, Mastering Probability and you'll receive access to seven of Steve's educational webinars absolutely free. At TFNN, all our newsletters come with a 30-day money-back guarantee so you have absolutely nothing to worry about. Visit TFNN.com and try Mastering Probability 30 Days Risk-Free Today, TFNN, Educating Investors. Welcome back, folks. We have the S&P slightly in the red off by one point right now and we jump around to the other articles I had pulled up. This one's an interesting one from Bloomberg and it's talking about zero days to expiration options. I know we got a few participants in the Tigers and at least they're vocal about them. I've traded them, folks. I know my dad has as well. You want to at least understand them because they are becoming an integral part of the volume and the volatility and how the market trades. How exactly that works. I'm not sure anybody exactly understands but the type of leverage and the type of popularity that they're gaining is undeniable and now you got Wall Street Quants. Warm up to the zero day options amid trading boom from Citi to JPMorgan and UBS. Banks that develop systematic equity products for clients have jumped on the bandwagon of derivative contracts that have zero days to expirations. So desks responsible for so-called quantitative investment strategies or QIS as they're referred to have either built new trades around these flashy options or use them as an alternative to existing strategies. And yeah, this is the latest sign of acceptance for a breed of options that have boomed in the two years since the wider introduction. Now, what's so cool about these in particular, okay? When talking about zero days to expiration options is that you can be on either side of this trade. So if you think the market makers are making all the money because they're absorbing the premium then you can go in this market and you can be the one selling that premium. If you think that volatility is underpriced if you think you want to buy volatility or sell volatility, do you want to do it directionally with just a call or a put? Do you want to do it non-directionally where you're just basically being the one that is either paying for volatility where you gain profits as you get a move or do you want to be the person that's absorbing that volatility where you're the one that wants no movement, right? Because somebody else is paying you for the ability to capitalize off of movements that may occur greater than what's priced into the probability. Now, this is the spy and options aren't open yet. So we'll check back on this as they open because it's probably a better example actually when they do get open. But they're priced as of the close yesterday. The market's pretty close to where it was yesterday. S&Ps are off by one, right? We're looking at the spy, the S&P 500. And the coolest part about the zero days to expiration options is you've got a bid-ask spread that is usually a penny wide at or near the market where it's trading. So you look at an option like, let's say a simple call that's at 4.75. So as of the close yesterday, what'd you have? You had about 65 cents of intrinsic value in that. You take out the intrinsic value of 65. What are you talking about? You're paying about a buck 30 in premium, okay? Because what, you have the option to buy at a 4.75. Right now you're only gonna be able to sell it at 4.75, 65. You're paying almost $2 for it. You gotta make up that buck 35. That's the expected move about a buck 35 in your direction, okay? The reason why they got about a $3 move is because you can go either direction when you're looking at the put in the call combined. Now the coolest part that I just wanna point out is, okay? Options are for 100 shares, okay? So let's just say you purchased one contract for a 4.75 call. It's gonna cost you about $200. Let's just use simple math. $200 is what you're gonna be paying for one 4.75 SPY call, which expires December 28th, which is today. Now they would consider that a zero days to expiration once the trading day opens, right? Tomorrow's gonna be the one, these are calibrated as of yesterday because that's the last trading day. Now getting to the coolest part about this. So for $200, you control 400, excuse me, you control 100 shares of the SPY, which is trading at $475. Now, you're talking about $47,500. I had to check my math. I was like, are you serious? Yeah, you just had two zeros, man. You're talking about for $200, okay? For $200, folks, you're basically controlling a share position that is $47,500. You're controlling 100 shares of an ETF that's trading at $475 per share, and you only had to pay $200, less than half of what one share is worth for that. Now, if you are talking about leverage, that is 237 to one leverage. 237 to one leverage they are providing you. Now, don't trade off this information, okay? You need to understand options. I'm generalizing because what I'm not talking about in here is that you have zero days to expiration if the S&P trades where it is right now or lower, you're gonna lose basically almost all of your money. If you buy the SPY at $475,65, and it closes today at $475,65, you lose no money. If you buy this option that's trading at $2, and it closes at the same price you bought it at, you are going to lose about $0.75, excuse me, $0.35. You're gonna lose about two thirds of your investment. You're gonna have a 65% loss in that trade. That's the difference. That's the reason why you get leverage, because you got eight hours of trading, they're gonna give you 237 to one leverage for that eight hours of trading. But guess what? You're paying of the $200 you're paying, you're actually paying $130 of that for straight out premium because that's the premium. The 65 cents is what you're paying an intrinsic value. It's worth noting the leverage numbers of bonkers now, and a lot of times folks, right, you have participants trading, not one contract, they're trading 10 contracts, if not 100 contracts, okay? This position at $2, let's just say this share, this option opens a $475 call expiring today. You buy 10 of those, you're talking about 1,000 shares, that's a $2,000 investment you're making for that options position. And meanwhile, you're now controlling, the numbers get bonker, yeah, you're controlling $475,000 worth of positions. So for a $2,000 investment, you're controlling almost a half million dollar position. And if you wanna kick it up one more, which people are doing all the time, man, it's a $20,000 investment, right? You trade 100 contracts, each one's 100 shares, that's basically 10,000, that contract cost you 20 grand and for that, you are controlling a position that's bordering on multimillion dollars for 20 grand. So you see why people are attracted to this, the type of leverage. Not a lot of people put it in that perspective, but that is why you get monster moves because yes, you're paying that point, but boy, when you put it in that perspective, for $200 you're maintaining a position of about 47 grand for one contract of that. And yeah, what happens? Well, if you're controlling a position that's $47,500 for 200, what happens if you get a 1% move in that? Well, a 1% move, a 1% move of almost 50 grand is gonna be a $5,000 move for 200. Hey, listen, delta, gamma, theta, all right? Talking to the dent, you should understand them all. Don't trade off this information because boy, I'm just cherry picking a few things here. Okay, you gotta understand how they all work together, but when you see these types of numbers, you gotta understand why these are so attractive, okay? That is the simple math of why these products are so attractive because of the type of leverage and not a lot of people realize that it is leverage with a premium of decay. And that's the way you wanna look at it because if you're really making quick trades which some people are, you're getting very little decay. If you're planning on being in an equity, five, 10, 15, 30 minutes, you're paying a one penny bid-ask spread for almost 250 to one leverage and you're only paying the decay over that half hour, et cetera. All right, we're coming back for the open folks. Stay tuned, we'll talk some different news and equities coming up. TFNN has just launched their new trading room, the Tiger's Den, hosted at Discord. TFNN has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours and now they are expanding their reach with the Tiger's Den, available to all Tigers and Tigresses for just $1 for the year. There's no catch or added costs when you join our community of traders. In the Tiger's Den, you can look over the shoulders of Tom O'Brien and the other TFNN hosts while they analyze charts during their live Tiger TV programs and join an interactive trading community with hundreds of members exchanging ideas, interact with other Tigers and Tigresses as they share trading ideas, news analysis and discuss the market action all trading day, even at night and on the weekends. The Tiger's Den at Discord is accessible on mobile or tablets as well, so it's always at your reach. To sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders, just visit the front page of TFNN.com. Currencies, commodities and bond markets are as important as ever right now with how they're driving the volatility in equity markets across the globe, which is why it's a great time to try out Teddy Kegstad's Tiger Forex report. Teddy Kegstad breaks down the forex markets every Monday using his 30 plus years of experience as a trading veteran of futures, forex, stocks and options. Teddy releases his weekly Tiger Forex report every Monday morning with coverage of all the major currency pairs, including the Dollar Index, the Euro Dollar, Pound Dollar, Dollar Swiss, Dollar Yen, as well as many more, and he also has weekly coverage of the crude oil market and the 30 year T-bonds as they both influence forex markets tremendously. When you sign up for the Tiger Forex report, you also gain instant access to Teddy's 60 minute webinar archive. He just hosted forex strategies and fundamentals, what is behind the Tiger Forex report. For all the details and to start your 30 day Tiger Forex report subscription today, visit the front page of TFNN.com. TFNN, educating investors. Are you ready to take your trading to the next level? Introducing Tom O'Brien's award-winning newsletter, Market Insights, your key to successful active trading. Tom O'Brien, renowned for his expertise in the financial markets has designed Market Insights to be your daily guide to profitable trades. Tom publishes his daily Market Insights newsletter every market day before the market open, along with updates when warranted. Stay ahead of the game with Tom's real-time analysis and trade recommendations delivered straight to your inbox. Whether you're a seasoned trader or just starting out, Market Insights provides the edge you need to navigate the markets with confidence. Ready to join the ranks of successful traders? Head over to TFNN.com and subscribe to Market Insights today. Don't miss out on this opportunity to supercharge your trading results. Market Insights comes with a 30-day money-back guarantee for all new subscribers, so you have nothing to risk. Don't miss out on this opportunity to revolutionize your trading game. Head over to TFNN.com right now to join the thousands of traders who have already experienced the power of Tom O'Brien's award-winning newsletter, Market Insights firsthand. TFNN, educating investors. Don't forget, you can listen to TFNN live on your mobile device 24 hours per day. Go to TFNN.com and hit watch Tiger TV. Welcome, excuse me, welcome back folks. We get the market open. You got the S&P off by two NASDAQ 100 up by 18. We'll see if we get any action, right? I mean, we're coming into New Year's, man. Spent some time with Tommy. Where were we? Jumping around. I was jumping around. I've been running into people who are on vacation, depending where we go, right? A lot of people on vacation in Florida, of course. We've been out and about. We were talking about the parks. We've been out and about. We've been out and about. We've been out and about. We've been out and about. We've been out and about. We're talking about the parks, everything going on. It's December 27th. This week between January, always a little bit light on volume, of course. And as we come into this Friday with it being on a Monday, not sure much gets in the way of this market right now. But it's been quite an acceleration with the spy hitting 47550. Jumping back real quick, just to use numbers of what we're talking about today. So for a better example on when these numbers price, as I mentioned, just to finish up this conversation, The coolest part about this is, is that you can be either side of the market with basically no penalty. When you're talking about a penny wide, you want to buy on the ask, you're buying it one penny greater than if you wanted to sell on the bid. So you're not getting, you're not, the transaction fee is super minimal. You are paying, okay, fees to your brokerage, options. There's no such thing as free trading in options like they have in equity. So look into that as well in these, because those fees add up tremendously as well. You'd be surprised how quickly they add up depending on how many contracts you're doing. You can find all that information. I know you can't within your Thinkors Swim platform, they actually give it to you straight up. How much you've paid in fees, trading fees and expenses for the year. And equities, it's nothing. That is not the case in options. It rises dramatically. But for example, so let's look at that 4.75, right? You have about 60 cents of intrinsic value. It's trading at 1.86 by 1.87. So what are you paying? You're paying about a buck 20 in the spy for today's action to control 100 shares because that's the premium, okay? You're not technically, you are paying the 60 cents, okay? But you could go out even further. And this is where, oh, I got to set this up. I used to have the delta in here. You know what? At one of the breaks, for the end of the program, I'll do this and I'll take a look at the deltas and we'll finish this up, all right? We're gonna, I'm gonna press it on one of my buttons here, forgive me. We'll jump around to some of the other news today I want to get to. We're gonna talk to our man, Teddy Kegsdad at 40 past the hour. And then don't go away. We're gonna finish this conversation up. I'm gonna bring up the delta and you can take a look and, you know, for you investors out here saying, okay, well, what if I wanted to, forgive me folks, I got my volume up too high. There we go. What if I wanted to, what if I wanted to buy a call? What if I wanted to do the trade you're talking about? Why are you talking about the 475? When I'm putting up 200 bucks, why don't I do the 476 when I'm just 25 cents out of the money, but I only have to put up $139 per contract. That's the conversation we'll have at the end of the show, all right? Okay, that's a good teaser because that's a good conversation. Apple shares, you're off by a quarter percent today. Interesting read up here from Bloomberg this morning. Was it this morning or last night? No, it was this morning. Yeah, I was reading it before the program. A late night email to Tim Cook that set the Apple Watch saga in motion. So they're dealing with this right now, man. They got a patent case going on. They have stopped selling the Apple Watches. That is not a small feat, okay? 2013, he gets an email. Mr. Tim Cook at about 1 a.m. California time. You're talking about 4 a.m. east coast. Things are happening while you're sleeping on the east coast at four in the morning folks. A scientist emailed Tim Cook with an irresistible pitch. I strongly believe that we can develop a new wave of technology that will make Apple the number one brand in the medical fitness and wellness market. Talk about a pitch which was later included in legal documents in part of this case going on 10 hours after it was sent. Our crew was in touch, right? That's 11 o'clock in the morning, California time. And just weeks after that, the engineer was working at the tech company on a smartwatch with health sensors. Well, who was this guy that just emails the CEO of Apple and gets hired within 10 hours of that email? Well, this gentleman, he was the chief technology officer. Forgive me, where are we? Yeah, so this guy is a Stanford engineering PhD. And he was the chief. Come on, where are we here? Forgive me. Here we go. It wasn't just any engineer. He had been the chief technology officer of Circa Corps, maybe. The sister company of Massimo, which is the one suing Apple, to get the US to ban the watch. Chief technology officer, Stanford PhD, he was hired. He got it done. And yeah, Massimo, the relatively obscure maker of medical devices based in Irvine, California, Irvine, argues that he seized their prize asset, the ability to noninvasively and accurately capture the level of oxygen in a person's blood. I mean, this was something Apple was going after. Remember, it's something they tout heavily. They're going into medical. And it's one of the things I actually love. I don't use blood oxygen, OK? But I have seen it on the Apple Watch. It's not something I need, thankfully. But I could imagine how beneficial it can be. But I love the heart rate feature alone. The heart rate feature alone, folks, is a tremendous feature to have in something that is just like an extra on top of the watch that is just a watch itself. I think they're pretty cool. I do. And so they are going big on this, and it makes sense because I see the benefit myself. It tracks so much. What I've seen myself, without even planning to do it, right? Just by wearing the watch. And I don't wear it all the time. I don't have it on this morning. You know, I wear it when I go for walks or runs because that way it can track some stuff. I keep track of it. You can use it for bike rides. You're tracking your heart rate, stuff like that. But I've noticed trend differences in my own heart rate, depending on if I'm doing a lot of exercise or maybe a little, when I'm really in a good groove and exercising a lot, I can see the difference that my resting heart rate is actually lower. You can actually see the health benefits, longer-term trends. That's one of the coolest part, the longer-term trends that it's able to track, I think are one of the coolest parts. So I see the benefit. And I don't even need it to the ability most people do. So this guy resigned in July, 2014. And they're arguing over why it was so quick. And then the first Apple Watch was amounts three months later in September, 2014. It didn't have that sensor and instead relied on more basic technologies. But it continued from there. And there's some of the documents, but nonetheless, that one's gonna play out. And those watches are no longer in stores right now. So that's a real deal. All right, you got S&P up by one right now. What else do we got pulled up here? Yeah, I mean, it just keeps going, right? With these geopolitical, I woke up this morning to notifications on my iPhone, something like five drones shot down, yeah, 12 shot down, 12 attack drones, three anti-ship ballistic missiles and two land attack cruise missiles that were fired by the Houthis over the Southern Red Sea. That's a problem, man. We'll see if it plays out. Look at that, right? That's like some modern warfare type graphics. I mean, can you imagine? So this is a Hoody military helicopter flying over the galaxy leader cargo ship in the Red Sea. Can you imagine you're on the ship and that's what you're doing. You got kids at home and that's your business and you got them flying over and military helicopters firing at you. Yeah, that's a problem, man. All right, let's jump around. We're gonna be coming back with our man, Teddy Kegstad. We're gonna talk a little bit of currencies. We got the dollar index this morning. Down another 20 pennies, we're at 101.26. We'll talk to Teddy about some currencies. We'll talk a little bit of crude with crude back under 75 bucks. Stay tuned, folks. We'll be right back in three minutes. Don't go away. TFNN has just launched their new trading room, the Tiger's Den, hosted at Discord. TFNN has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours and now they are expanding their reach with the Tiger's Den, available to all Tigers and Tigresses for just $1 for the year. There's no cash or added costs when you join our community of traders. In the Tiger's Den, you can look over the shoulders of Tom O'Brien and the other TFNN hosts while they analyze charts during their live Tiger TV programs and join an interactive trading community with hundreds of members exchanging ideas, interact with other Tigers and Tigresses as they share trading ideas, news analysis and discuss the market action all trading day, even at night and on the weekends. The Tiger's Den at Discord is accessible on mobile or tablets as well, so it's always at your reach. To sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders, just visit the front page of TFNN.com. You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market, you're going to need a crystal ball. After all, it's impossible to predict the future, right? Like any endeavor in life, before you decide it's impossible, get some advice from the experts. You might find that it's not so impossible after all. 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A fund's prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about direction shares. To obtain a fund's prospectus and summary prospectus call 866-476-7523 or visit DirectionInvestments.com. A fund's prospectus and summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing. An investment in the funds is subject to risk, including the possible loss of principal. The funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors. Distributor, Four Side Fund Services, LLC. This program is brought to you by Vista Gold, traded on the NYSE American and TSX under the symbol VGZ. Welcome back, folks. We got all the markets in the positive. S&Ps up by two, NASDAQ 100 up by 17. You get the Dow up by 18 in the Russell, positive by four right now. As we do every Wednesday at 40 past the hour, let's jump over to our man, Teddy Kegstad. Folks, you can read Teddy's Outstanding Tiger Forex Report, which he writes each week with new issues on Monday, updates throughout the week when warranted. You can check that out under the newsletter tab. It's only $97, folks. You see the action going on with currencies. We're gonna talk about it right now. That comes with a 90, excuse me, with a 30 day money back guarantee. So you got nothing at risk. You get a subscriber webinar as well. And if you have some time over the holidays, man, Teddy's got two outstanding webinars under the services tab. One of them capitalizing on time with calendar stock option spreads. We were just talking about options. And the other one, candlestick patterns, Japanese candlestick patterns, services tab. We all might have a little extra time during the holidays. And let's just jump right into it. Teddy Kegstad, good morning. Good morning, Tommy. We got some action and notes and bonds in the US dollar today. Poof. You know, Teddy, I always take a look at your Tiger 4x report. You send it over early, first day of the week, and then we send it out. And yeah, let's talk about some of the action. I know you have downside target levels. You got upside, but boy, we've had quite a trend here. Can we start with the dollar? Absolutely, for sure. Where do you wanna go? I'll lead off with that. Well, I was looking at your charts. I mean, downside target level. I think you had 101.21. And we're sitting at literally 101.21 right now, Teddy, the tick as I pull it up. So now that we've reached, you had that out for subscribers early this week. Now we've reached that downside target level. I found myself saying, okay, I wonder what Teddy says we do from here as we've reached kind of that at least short-term target pretty quickly. Yeah, well, you know, what's kind of funny is that both the US dollar index target as well as notes and bonds are right at those buffering targets that I was looking for right now. So the key thing is with the dollar is that right now the bearish move in the dollar index as a result of yields retracting. We have an almost three-month rally going on in notes and bonds and we're pressing new highs right now as we speak. Now I think we're coming into a very good corrective area right now as far as where we're topping out at because we haven't seen the Fed ease yet. So right now, the market's always forward-thinking especially with derivatives. So right now the market is factoring in right now at least a quarter-point rate cut. Well, they haven't even solidified the fact that they're pausing yet. So I think that right now you got to be very careful with your longs right now when it comes to notes and bonds or your shorts against the dollar because how much more can we stretch this trend right now without actual fundamental action? So and especially if any economic numbers come in that are inflationary. So I think you have to be very cautious right now if you've been riding the trend short to dollar and long notes and bonds now is a good time to tighten up your stops because even if we do continue to push the trend I would think you're going to expect to get a real choppy trade right now without any fundamental confirmation right now. It's a great point, man because I found myself thinking along some similar lines, at least I keep seeing the yield on the 10-year and I think we're under 3.85% right now and I found myself saying, okay, where is my risk reward? On either side and I said, can we really drop to like 3.5 or three and a quarter? Of course we could, okay? But boy that's really tough when the Fed is still sitting at 5.5 and you have to go out 10 years to get to three I said, how does that so that I understand the point I appreciate it, man because I found myself saying we're ahead of the game the market as you say they get ahead of the game and now it seems like we, it's ahead of the game for a while it seems as we're at 3.5, down from five which is bonkers, man. And I hope your listeners really paid attention to what you just said about the risk reward. Is there still potential on these trends? Absolutely. But as far as what you're gaining potentially versus where the other action is to the downside you really have to weigh those options right now for sure. It wouldn't be crazy if the 10-year was at like four and a quarter, right? Or like those types I mean just not crazy at all because in obvious that's the, yeah, exactly. I mean, it doesn't mean we're not going to be back under four in an instant but those types of moves, like you say choppy. Let's say the Fed is going to start cutting rates even at the next meeting we still should have some sort of pullback and are raising in yields markets don't just go in one direction. So this trend is pretty stretched it's pretty steep. So for us to at least have the market pushing yields higher for just a short term that's normal, right? That would be a couple of weeks of having higher yields before we go back on the lower yield trend is normal. And I think we're kind of coming into that phase I would think, you know. So pretty remarkable yields almost end of the year where we began them with quite the roller coaster but pretty close to that price point. Do you want to jump to maybe the yen? I want to get to crude as well but maybe the yen because we got some action of course and that's driving we got gold with some action where we're sitting at 142 and change what do you think about the yen as we're just chopping around a little bit so far this week? Yeah, you know what? I think that, you know in this tiger forex report I said that of the yen I think is one of the currencies you have to be really careful with. I think it's going to be range bound for the rest of this week. You know, I mean, could we see a nice small rally or even try and hit the lows again? I mean, there's nothing fundamentally right now that's going to dictate that of all the currency pairs versus a dollar I think you're going to have a sleepy trade here. So I'd be very cautious. It's going to be wedging and I would expect it to break out either to the downside or to the upside, you know sometime next week, you know but right now we felt the low that was hit a week and a half ago was just short of our downside target and without the BOJ doing anything yet which we know they are going to do something in 2024, you know but that also goes in line with us. I mean, if they're going to start, you know doing anything, it's not going to be anything severe. You know, it's not like they're going to be like we were on a campaign of raising rates for meeting after meeting after meeting, you know the Japanese are going to maybe do one rate hike, you know potentially of a quarter point, you know sometime between now and the next six months, you know so is it bearish the US dollar yet? I think it's keeping us from hitting those those multi month highs that we hit a couple months ago, you know but especially unless we do raise another quarter point I think your range bound right now this 140 level to 145 is going to be a tough trade. You know, I would think at least for the next couple of weeks and then potentially, especially if we get past our next Fed meeting, you know and then there's no longer any sense of perhaps another hike and we're going to be on at least a pausing basis. Then I think you could start to see us maybe hit lower lows and see the yen back down to 135 level, you know just because of our Fed going on a pause and then the potential no matter what the BOJ doing something, you know to do some kind of raising whether it's raising rates or quantitative, you know there's multiple things that the BOJ can do at their disposal, you know and it's hard to guess what they're going to do because they haven't done very much over the past 30 years, the last year, you know so the crystal ball is very foggy when it comes to the Japanese because they don't do things very often or very quickly. So, but yeah, I think you're very range bound I would not get overly bearish yet until we have the fundamental confirmations. I think it is a sell rally forecast but it's going to be tight I think between 140 and 145. Now, if we breach with the 145 area and you see for instance, yields going higher and the dollar getting stronger well then maybe we could get a run back at that 150 threshold that the BOJ has but as we how much nothing right now is going to cause that market action. So you're talking about a big trend that would take weeks to occur which puts us into the new year. Just to wrap it up as this is the last one what do you think about crude at 75 bucks? What do you think next year? I like it, I like it going a little bit higher especially with all the conflict with you know in the Middle East. Teddy, thank you so much for a great 2023 man we'll talk to you next year have a great holiday, safe holiday man. Happy new year to all of you. Happy new year Teddy. Stay tuned folks, we'll be right back. The gold report. As a precious metal, gold is still king. It continues to hold the most effective safe haven and hedging properties across the global major trading hubs of the London OTC market. The US futures market and the Shanghai Gold Exchange. The gold report. Tom O'Brien publishes his weekly gold report every Monday morning for subscribers consisting of coverage of the XAU, HUI, GDX, the dollar, bonds, the South African Rand as well as 25 different mining equities with specific buy sell recommendations. The gold report. New subscribers get a 30 day money back guarantee so you have nothing to risk. Subscribe to Tom O'Brien's gold report newsletter now at TFNN.com. You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market, you're going to need a crystal ball. After all, it's impossible to predict the future, right? Like any endeavor in life, before you decide it's impossible, get some advice from the experts. You might find that it's not so impossible after all for daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices, selective stocks and commodities. Subscribe to the opening call newsletter at TFNN.com. The opening call newsletter is written by Basil Chapman, creator of the trading methodology known as the Chapman Wave. The Chapman Wave up down sequence gives you an edge in identifying price turns, finding the peaks and valleys in stock prices. Get the opening call newsletter by Basil Chapman in your inbox every day. First-time subscribers also get a 30-day money-back guarantee. If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. TFNN.com, educating investors. The reality is that navigating financial markets can be risky. Markets can be chaotic and difficult to understand. Having the latest market advice can help you turn this chaos into a key for creating winning trades. At TFNN, we understand that it can be hard to find reliable market news. That's why each of our market experts offers their very own market newsletter. They must have tool for every trader out there striving to find an edge in today's markets. TFNN newsletters cover every aspect of the markets so you can analyze the market before you trade. Try any of our great newsletters risk-free with our 30-day money-back guarantee. Just visit the Newsletters tab on the front page of TFNN.com. TFNN, educating investors. Don't forget, you can listen to TFNN live on your mobile device 24 hours per day. Go to TFNN.com and hit Watch Tiger TV. That's TFNN.com. Go to TFNN.com and hit Watch Tiger TV. Once we have the S&Ps up by four, NASDAQ 100 up by 27, S&Ps trading at 48, 28, and jumping back. So I was talking a little bit about those zero days to expiration options. I said we'll talk about real quick, taking a look at whether you're talking about delta, gamma, theta, theta is decay. Okay, we were talking about decay. And what's so cool is when you're dealing with these zero days to expiration options. Now I have each column, they're jammed together here, but the D is delta, the G is gamma, the T H is theta, and you got Vega in there as well. I'm gonna focus on theta right now, okay? Because I was talking about buying these. Folks, we'll keep going over these, okay? Because you know, you got spread trades, my dad's texting me, go over the spreads. The spreads are great too. That's when, you know, instead of just buying a 475 call, you can buy the 475 call, you sell the 477, you get back a little bit of principal, you cap your potential profit, okay? But just looking at, now, we're gonna change the example slightly because the SPY is trading at 476.10. So let's say for today, we buy a 476 call, okay? We have the right to buy this at 476. It's trading at 476.08. Well, what does that mean? We got about seven to eight pennies of value right now, right, because that option allows us to buy it a 476, we sell it in the free market, and take our seven to eight penny profit. Well, what's so cool is on the zero days to expiration options, okay? Your theta is the premium because it all goes away in one day. So that's what you're paying right there, 68 pennies of theta, that goes away today if this stock doesn't move, all other things equal, okay? Now what's cool is you start going up and down the line. Let's say you think, ah, what if it stays where it's at? Well, where do you wanna go? You got theta at eight pennies that you're only paying. You wanna put up 308 bucks for a contract, instead of 75, you can decrease your theta, okay? You wanna go the other side and go out of the money, you can decrease your theta because you're putting up less money. It was a quick little overview, folks, but now you got Wall Street in on the action, they're not going away, you wanna at least understand them and how they trade. All right, folks, thanks so much for starting your Wednesday off with me, stay tuned. We got our man Basil Chapman coming up next live. We got live programming, folks, only three days left, including today of 2023. Make sure it, you gotta do any tax preparations, man, you gotta do any selling, you gotta do any, you got three days left to do them. 2020, folks, have a great one, have a safe one. We'll see you in a moment, stay tuned for Basil, come up right now.