 Hello and welcome to the Monday market update with me David Madden today's date is Monday the 1st of April 2019 and the time has just gone 925 GMT 925 BST British summertime the clocks change here in the UK over the weekend So yeah, the time is just gone 925 BST 925 a.m. In the UK We've had a strong start to the European session We've had some positive manufacturing numbers out of China over the weekend if you go to a training platform and Take a look under the mark pulse tab and the fourth option down is the market calendar Over on Sunday in the early hours of Sunday morning. We had the official Figures in Beijing the manufacturing figures in Beijing and the reading came in at 50.5 Topping the forecast of 49.5 and as improvement on the previous month's rating of 49.2 And then in the early hours of Monday morning. We had the Kaishin survey of Chinese manufacturing, which is deemed to be More in part it's deemed to be more impartial because it's a private survey rather than the government official survey But they also were quite were up for positive whereby the reading came in at 50.5 So it's an expansion territory which is positive and it exceeded the in the forecast and the forecast was for Reading a 49.9. So I topped the forecast and it also it was an improvement on the previous month's rating of also 49.9 So the strong manufacturing figures out of China both reports combined with the fact that we've had 30 positive updates between the US and China in relation to trade negotiations and trade talks at the back end of last week we had we had a lift higher in European and US stocks because of Because of the optimism surrounding US and China trade and now we're seeing Not great figures on a China, but definitely improving figures out of China. And that is really and that's really lifted Equities global equity sentiment. So we've obviously seen this in quite decent numbers Our China of the weekend what we just saw there was the UK a flashback of actually figures came out at 55.1 Very strong reading well above the 51 reading that was expected And I saw that improvement on the 52 reading that I previously expected now You could argue that the the jump in manufacturing and the run-up to Brexit could be construed as a sign that people in the Manufacturing sector here in the UK or what they get their business done ahead of Brexit Because this report was obviously the report for the month of scouting for the month of February So this is so it could be construed as a Work being front-loaded, but nonetheless is a solid reading and it was certainly better than the updates that we saw out of France and Germany Which both had disappointing manufacturing numbers, but Overall stock markets around the world are in quite decent shape And we start off by taking a look at the FTSE 100 So the wider picture and this is a common theme throughout Global stock markets. They've been bouncing back since since this is late December So a life series of higher highs and higher lows on the FTSE 100 As you can see here now We are now back upon this red line here, which is the Turdy moving average And the Turdy moving average is often seen as kind of a brawler if you're up here above the Turdy moving average Setup is positive if you blow sentiments negative. So we're back above which is positive The Turdy moving average comes into play at seven thousand two hundred and twenty five We're currently around seven thousand three hundred and forty seven or so, so we're well above it If you look to press on higher from here We could be looking at retesting the recent highs of seven thousand three hundred and seventy Which you're racked up in late March And if you go beyond that we could be looking heading up towards seven thousand four hundred big psychological number And if you take on that level, you could be looking heading up towards this area here That's seen since since late September of seven thousand seven thousand five hundred and fifty eight If you do manage to drift lower unless you move to the downside We could find some support coming in play at this region here at the end of the late February low of seven thousand and forty Take a look now at what's going on over in Germany The tax is also quite positive shape the tax is pretty much at eleven thousand seven hundred That's a fairly important metric on the doctor take a look at the wider view if you take a look at this area here around eleven thousand 690 eleven thousand seven hundred this this this line long here. We can see that back early last year in in February in March and in and February in March last year we saw that I think in a six out sorry eleven thousand six hundred ninety or seven hundred mark Once it was a very decent level of support if you draw a line along that line From there we can see that as the market was pressing higher In early March it ran into resistance at that market shied away from it Then it broke above it and now we've pulled the lowest and then we actually managed to Ready pretty much on it again So I think it could be a fairly significant metric this time around again if we can manage a break on higher from here We could be looking at our getting the earth you can bid March high of eleven thousand eight hundred twenty three And should we go beyond that we could be looking at our getting the twelve thousand area If we do manage to add the drift lower and pull back support might be fine Might be found from this blue line here at the fifth of the movie average We can see on a few occasions recently it didn't manage to act as support and if a metric Actually that support in the past it makes it more likely they were active as much as important metric in the future So support might be found at the fifth of the movie average which comes into play at eleven thousand three hundred and eighty six Take a look at what's going on over the rest. I'll start off with the S&P 500 So S&P 500 Gained over in thirteen point one percent in the first quarter It was the strongest first quarter to the S&P 500 since 1998 I give indication if I'm bullish and S&P has been in recent months We can see here that the already were The futures are indicating the S&P 500 is going to open not too far away from the high of 2019 up around the kind of 2856 mark and the high was in around the kind of 2860 region So we saw the upward trend for the last few months if you continue to press on higher from here We could be lucky at our getting this region up around here 2865 and the shooting all beyond that The biggest psychological number of two thousand nine hundred will then come into play If the market does manage to drift a bit lower support might be found from from this area here 11,220 11,218 We can see at that region action of resistance in October November and also December And it might actually resistance again in early March, and we've seen some we've seen a bit of consolidation in around it So if we do manage to drift a bit lower the kind of two thousand eight hundred and twenty or eight hundred and fifty mark Could act as support and even if you drop below that a support might be found from this area here in a two thousand seven hundred and eighty four It's a fairly similar estimation of the doubt with the Dow Jones provided bouncing back to December We're not too far away from the from the highs of 2019 So solid upward trend in the last number of months We do appear to be kind of pressing higher Looking at retesting this area here because of the highs of 2019 if we can press on higher from here We could be looking at targeting this area here at two thousand six Sorry twenty six thousand two hundred and seventy eight, which is a kind of high achieved in early November And if you go beyond that you could be heading up towards the psychology board and twenty seven thousand mark If you do manage to drift a bit lower support might be found from this blue line here the fifth the moving average which comes in play Twenty five thousand five hundred and twenty seven we can see on a few occasions that this the fifth the moving average acts as decent support recently and as I just said in the last chart if a metric Proved to be important recently it makes it more likely that will be important again in the future And even if you drift drift below that support might be found to this red line here the truly moving average Which comes to the plate just north of two of our twenty five thousand two hundred two hundred Take a look now at what's going on in the gold market So gold despite the fact that gold is much less drift a bit lower I in the last few sessions partially becomes the strong US dollar and the dollar is partially strong because of the weakness in the euro given The given the poor economic indicators coming out years old and also some of the kind of political and certain relation to Brexit Pound has also been some cases weak because the political and certain relation to Brexit the traders Why wind up seeking out of safe haven currencies such as the US dollar and there's an interest relationship traditionally between the US dollar and Gold because gold is traded US dollar. So recently we're seeing a better pressure being applied to gold But gold remains in the kind of solid upward trend that has been in since November last year Really, it's been pushing back since out August, but for the solid upward trend since November And if you can hold above this area here in around the 12,000 sorry 1276 mark 1212 80 if you hold above that it's likely we could see the wider move to the upside continue And if you do see them go market pushy higher again, we could be looking at taking off this region here just north of 1320 I should we go beyond that we could be looking heading towards the February high I've been around 1346 Move to the downside if you do measure break below 1276 that could pave the way for further losses Take a look now on Brent crude oil on the oil market So all has managed to hit a fresh multi-month high levels not seen since November last year That's been making huge strides to the upside, but by and large is being slowly kind of grinding higher In the last few months, I'm not too far away from the kind of psychology important $70 per barrel and if you do manage to get a bit of a pullback in the price of Brent crude We could find support coming from from this area here in our on the can 66 dollars per barrel and even if you drop below 66 dollars a barrel Support could be found from this blue line here the 50 moving average which comes to play just just north of $65 per barrel Take a look now at WTI Simulation we're about WTI head is highest level since November last year So we're talking multi-month highs even indication of our positive and a bullish sentiment is if you can press on higher from here We could be looking at our getting this red line here that 200 of the average which comes in the play at 61 spot 60 61 spot 64 and if you go beyond that this area here Potentially at 62 spot 50 might act and also active resistance if you do manage to drift a bit lower on on WTI support might be found from this this area here in around 58 spot 10 And if you do drift drift below 58 spot 10 support could be found from the kind of 57 region and active resistance on a few occasions in early March through the possibility it might act to support in the near term As I mentioned the euro has been sorry as mentioned the dollar has been relatively strong because of weakness in the euro because of Excuse me the dollar has been strong recently because the weakness in the euro partially because of the slowdown Some of the poor economic indicators from the eurozone area, but also because uncertain in relation to Brexit and as we can see here Since early January so for over three months now There's been a solid downward trend in the euro dollar So my series of lower loads and lower highs granted I'm pretty aware of the high achieved in March managed to take up the high February but still the wider trend is still very much in play Now if you continue to press on lower from here, we could be looking at retesting The the the loads of March in at one spot eleven seventy six and should go south of that We could be looking at no towards one spot eleven ten Do you mention to bounce back and press on higher from here? We could be looking at targeting the kind of one fourteen area Or or even the early March high of one spot fourteen forty eight Lucknow a pound dollar So despite all so in the last few sessions We have seen a bit of a sell-off in the pound versus us all of a broadly speaking since since for mid December the pound has been pushing higher versus the US dollar and While we will hold above this red line here The tour didn't move the average which comes to the plane just in around the kind of 130 mark If you can hold above that it's possible It's likely we could actually continue in the kind of wider upper trend that we've been in for the last three months So if you can press on higher from here We can be looking at driving 132 and if you go beyond that you can be looking heading towards this region here in around the kind of 130 it's the one spot 3360 33 one spot 3370 region in around here It's only if you have a fairly sizable break below the kind of dirty moving average Which is just south of one spot 30 could then we actually gonna pave the way for the losses And we could potentially head back down towards the the lows of a good February which come to play in around the kind of one spot 2775 area Now let's take a quick look at the the big events of the week The week ahead can be found on our website if you go to cmcmarkets.com under news and analysis You'll find you'll find the updates and the other analysts around the world post So go to the week ahead article now we could take a look so What's Without to the news in relation to breakfast keeps changing but the last the last I was the last I was stated Was that we're going to have a number of indicative votes again today? On various different matters for everything from the customs union To the possibility of a second referendum account a confirmation referendum Which is if that goes ahead the question of the ballot paper It could be should the UK leave the European Union on these terms or should the UK remain in the European Union There's also talk of Theresa May's withdrawal agreement, which even though it was voted down three times There is talk that it could be voted for a fourth time. So If you are trading the pound or the plus 500, please keep an eye out for what's going on in relation to Brexit because things are changing quite rapidly On so we've had a number of the various manufacturing reports from China Asia China Eurozone and also The UK today tomorrow we have the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting on Tuesday on Wednesday We a second quarter results from Walgreens On Wednesday, we have the various different service service PM our reports from around the globe On Thursday saga group have fun your numbers out. We also have an update Constellation brands in terms of fourth quarter figures on Thursday and on Friday because the first Friday of the month We will have US non-farm payrolls and also we will have a Canadian job support as well on Friday If you've any comments to make on this video or any of the other videos we've made here at CMC markets Please feel free to leave review on your views and that's off me this week. Thank you very much