 The war in Ukraine continues. At the same time, there's been a lot of focus over the past week on negotiations and discussions taking place, not only between Russia and Ukraine, but various countries. We've had Xi Jinping and Joe Biden having a conversation. We've had discussions regarding India's policies, for instance. We'll be talking about all this on this episode of Mapping Fault Lines. Let's first take a look at what's happening on the ground. There's actually not been too much of a change when we look at the situation right now. Some of the key points we mentioned over the past few weeks continue to be the same. Kiev is, of course, a key point. There is a front going around Kharkiv. Mariupol is increasingly under siege. And there are also possibilities that there might be more attacks towards the south-west of the country. To talk more about this, we have with us Prabir Prakash. Prabir, so quickly before we go into the sanctions and some of the discussions that are taking place, any quick thoughts on how you see the military situation on the ground? You're right. When you look at the maps, the picture is almost similar to what we have discussed last time as well. Yes, over the cities, now Kharkiv and Mariupol, there are still bitter battles going on. It's clear that Russia has a tighter grip on these towns. But nevertheless, they have still not been able to clear it off the fighters who are fighting their attempts to take the cities over. So that's there. But it's also clear that the span of amount of the area they control is increasing and also key points are falling to them. And there's this so-called cauldron which is being created in the Donbass region that seems to be tightening. So yes, I think strategically they are achieving the goals they wanted. It is not the Schocken or the US model which we have discussed earlier. They are doing it, but they are doing it at their own pace because they also know that the people they are supposedly coming to liberate, they cannot bomb them out of existence and collateral damage can be seen. Oh, it doesn't really matter because this is as far as they are concerned, they are people. So the kind of occupation strategies that the US, for instance, or the other imperial powers have used in Africa, for example, those don't will not work here that they are aware of. So I think that they have taken into account that what is the time frame they have and will they have the time frame? Will the global scenario allow them to have the time frame? That will depend a lot on what you talked about the sanctions, the economic war, which is the other part of the war, the information war is already over. Russians have lost it very clearly and that was I think expected from the beginning that that war they are not going to win. We are going to even discuss how much in social media, in international media, what we are seeing. Russian viewpoints not even coming because the RT for instance have been taken off. In India also we can't see RT anymore on the channels. On the internet you see DDoS attacks taking place. Most of the sites that give Russian points of view are actually not available most of the times. They are not available most of the time. So you see all of these things as a loss of the information war. But the real crux of the war is the economic war and the fact is when the sanctions imposed, the seizing of 300 billion dollars, how that pans out, I think that's going to be the key. And on that account certain developments are taking place. Right Prabhu, so that is my next question in the sensor. I think with every week we have more clarity on what exactly is really happening. What are the kind of transactions that are still going on between Russia and some of the countries in the west. What has been stopped for instance. So could you maybe take us through what is the latest information on that. As in our payments still going on when it comes to issues like energy, those have not been sanctioned of course. But what about the other kinds of payments between Russia and the west? Well I think there are two sets of issues. One are purely the financial transactions which is the payment for bonds, both sovereign bonds and other bonds. Now if for instance Russia is not able to pay for those bonds, whatever the payments which are falling due, then they will be declared to be default and then of course its economy or the external economy gets hit very badly. So credit ratings drop, all kinds of things can happen. Then it's also given the US law is also de facto the international law according to the US government as well as US courts. Therefore seizure of assets of both Russian companies in the Russian state can take place in the United States for example. So all these possibilities exist. The first issue was really the default and the bonds on which they had to pay I think $147 million of what payment was falling due. They have made the payment and they have made the payment from the accounts or the amounts which should be seized by the United States. It is really taken place from the seized accounts. Now we know there is a little bit of relaxation over there till May 25th. So it has not taken place outside that system. It has taken place within the seized $300 billion that we have talked about. Now how it seems up to May 25th they can avail of that and it also depends on whether the US will let them avail of it or not because effectively the US Treasury now decides what happens. So that is one issue that the defaults have not taken place but there will be more falling due and also after May 25th. So one of the options in Russia has that in some of those payments there is a clause that they can also pay them in rubles if they are not able to pay them in other ways. So that rubble option is there but not for all payments. So what do they do when those payments fall due after May 25th? We will have to wait and watch but it does seem that Russia has negotiated at least the first phase of this. The second part of it is what you are talking about the oil issues. Now you know the question is if the transactions don't take place in dollars then of course the countries have the right to transact in rubles and say in India's case in rupees. So rupee-rubble exchange is possible. As long as you don't use dollars that's okay or you don't use that you know then there is no leverage that the US has on you and similarly if you use yuan then also there is no problem. So the sanctions front it does seem that the things have eased up a bit. European Union is still continuing to buy gas and since the gas prices have also gone up significantly. Actually Russia is making large amounts of windfall profit from there. So given all of this the tightening of the screws on Russia has yet to take place and that's why you see the rubble has come up a bit. You can see the oil prices have again dropped. They don't seem to be in that state. So all of that is there and the last part which I think is also very important. We have India now buying 3 million barrels of oil. They have contracted for their refineries and they have withstood the pressure of the United States who made various noises and India has made a statement which is quite interesting. It says that those who are surplus of oil shouldn't advise us what to do with oil because we need that oil and that oil becomes very important when you look at what really is the transport done on and if you see for example that what are called the various distillates that are there then you will see that the diesel is a heavier distillate and that is something which as you know really fuels the trucks and that's what India, a large part of India's freight is done using trucks and also tractors for instance. They also use diesel. So give it all of that if you don't have diesel. Indian economy is going to be in a very very precarious condition and also the farmers if they don't get diesel then their farming activities are going to be badly hit. So that is the reason that India has made this purchase from Russia. Of course Russia had to sell it at a lower price that is clear but having sold it at a lower price both have benefited because they had this inventory which was lying with them. They didn't know what to do with it. So now they're selling it to India and India had a shortfall that what does it do? So it also got cheaper. So both sides seem to have benefited and that's made the United States rather unhappy. Now United States is not a major buyer of oil except that you know it does buy some oil because of the kind of crude it needs and so on. But it's not a major consumer of oil anymore. In fact it also sells oil on the market. So therefore to dictate when they couldn't dictate this to Germany or the European Union for gas to dictate to others whether they should or shouldn't buy and also dictate to China, India. This doesn't really doesn't ring very true. So I think this part of the strangling of Russia is not going to succeed. The bigger issues that are going to come up is of course food, food exports from Russia, fertilizer exports from Russia. What does the world do? Because if there is a shortfall in all of this, we are going to see a huge impact in the world on that. So that's something we have to watch because as you know wheat Russia is a major exporter of wheat. So is Ukraine and then of course fertilizers and both are going to affect agriculture in a very big way. So you have to wait and watch what happens on those counts. So Praveen, on a related note of course we do know that like you said in both India and China in different ways it's refused actually to give in to US pressure on this. In fact we have the Japanese Prime Minister I think meeting that is in Modi today. Scott Morrison of Australia is going to meet him on Monday. So there's a lot of diplomacy going on and I think one of the agenda points might be to really push India hard on this issue. But do we see the fracturing of this strategy which the United States and the western powers at home that you gather this grand coalition to sort of squeeze Russia as much as possible. Is this possibility kind of breaking down already because what India and China do also will be seen by countries in Africa and Latin America and this might serve as a precedent as well. Well if you see the sanctions map it's actually very much western Europe then Americas basically only United States and Canada and then Australia and New Zealand. That's really the sanctions map. It's very few countries except western Europe and western Europe of course they are they as Michael Hudson has written that they have become now much more subordinated to the United States after this. But if we take large parts of Latin America including allies which is Brazil and Columbia they don't seem to be participating in sanctions either. Because all of them either need to sell oil or buy oil and if you are selling oil well you are selling it to China and India. If you are buying oil then where are the suppliers the only supplier that they can think of is the United States. Nobody really wants to be having a single supplier as your source. So this is the oil buying and selling issue clearly and oil is going to be the key commodity in the short run. In the long term it's also going to be food. If you talk about manufacturing then of course manufacturing means China today. If we look at the trade relationship it's also very interesting. You will find United States and we have discussed this earlier United States is no longer the major trading partner of most countries in the world which it used to be 20 years back. If you take industrial production it's not the major industrial producer in the world which today both as exporters having major trade relationships or industrial production is really China. So given that what the other countries do countries like India is going to be important. Now India as we said needs oil so does China so on that they have similarity of positions. When it comes to food we need to of course we are self-sufficient in food we are not as dependent as many other countries are. But nevertheless without food coming into the world market wheat coming in fertilizers coming in fertilizers important for us as well. So this sanctions regime doesn't seem to be holding that that seems to be what we see around us and because of that we also see the way oil went up and then has come down. The way Russian currency has again sort of come to not to its original position but hasn't crashed the way thought it might. And the fact that China has made noises saying that they really will take an independent position based on their national interest and not be bullied essentially. That is a line that emanates from there that they are going to be bullied by what America's interests are. And this is almost the same thing that many other countries like including India. Even the West Asian countries have kept lines with Russia open. I think that's a very important point to bring up because the entire oil dominance was United States and West Asia. And today when you look at West Asia you see for instance United Arab Emirates you see Qatar going to Moscow. Then you see Saudi Arabia for instance talking about pricing its oil in yuan as well. They haven't said they won't price it in dollar but yuan as well. And that's 30% of the oil which Shaila buys from them. So already you see that all these countries seem to be working out their own equations. I'm not going to say non-alignment because that's a forgotten concept but working out their own equation. And interestingly Turkey seems to be also playing a role over there. So the fact that earlier it was really Israel which was with Saudi Arabia which was sort of controlling a large part of the politics of the region. That is breaking. And Israel is no longer a major mover and shaker. It seems now these countries where the ones you're talking about Qatar, United Arab Emirates, United Arab Emirates thinks it's a big player. It's now buying jets from China as well. It turned down F-35 because they were being very choosy about it earlier. The United States was holding a lot of conditions. They bought Rafale but they've also bought now Chinese planes and they want to buy more. So all of them are showing a certain degree of autonomy and that means West Asian oil what was called the Carter Doctrine. The Persian Gulf oil belongs to the United States. It's their critical reserve. That is no longer true. So if we look at all of this it is clear that countries in different parts of the world particularly in West Asia trying to work out their own equations. India from being a part of Quad which appear to have gone over to the US camp completely at least when it came to China has now also shown that it maintains its old relationship with Russia as well. So strategic autonomy is becoming the flavor of the month again. So the countries don't want to put all their foreign relationship eggs in the American basket. That is clear. So the kind of push they have been doing the United States and European Union and European countries which is the essentially G7 in which Boris Johnson makes a lot of noise. We don't know why. But this whole G7 which is what I think New Statesman once article once called the club of the white rich guys. So I think that is becoming sort of seen as a particular kind of ideology particular kind of position and not something which is in their positions are not in the interest of a large number of other countries. I think that is emerging. So yes I think Ukraine is going to be very important for many reasons reordering Europe of course that is going to happen. But also the larger international affairs. I think it means decisive break with the kind of super hegemon emergence of the United States in 1990 which is already weakening over various wars Iraq Afghanistan and so on. But I think with this this is a decisive shift that we are not most countries are saying we are not going to follow whatever you say. Yes we disagree with what Russia has done. Yes we may condemn them. But does it mean that we are going to stand with you in sanctioning Russia against our own economic interest because if we do so tomorrow we are also on the block. Thank you so much for being. That's all your time for today. We'll be covering many of these issues in future episodes of mapping fault lines as well. Until then keep watching news click.