 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network Fridays last year on the show. We're fantastic talking some player props with JJ Zacharyson It was so much fun We decided to run it back once again this year JJ will be with us every single Friday talking about his favorite player props over at Fandall's sportsbook and For the rest of this baseball season also gonna pitching ninja Rob Friedman on to break down his favorite strikeout props across Major league baseball JJ Zacharyson Rob Friedman. What more could you possibly want? Let's dive on in and get you ready for this week one NFL slate This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network. My name is Jim Sonnis I am a managing editor of digital media for Fandall research joined here as mentioned to begin things by JJ Zacharyson check them out on Twitter at late round to QB You can find his work at late round comment on the late round fantasy football podcast JJ We got one game in the books week one. It feels so good. How you doing today? I'm doing good man You know David Montgomery was someone that I targeted a lot in my fantasy drafts this year So it's good to see him find the end zone. Hopefully we get a little more Jameer Gibb usage You know down the stretch here and throughout the rest of the season and then looking at that chiefs wide receiver group Wolf I mean that was one of the worst just group performances I think that I've ever seen in football could areas Tony awful awful game sky more was invisible for most of the game I mean it was just a really rough performance from that group like there was a team last night that ran out Outside of a Monterey St. Brown Josh Reynolds Kaleigh Framon and Marvin Jones, and they were the best receiving group on the field last night. How sad is that? Yeah, I mean look if there's one game that you can point to to say wide receiver Matters and this is why these guys are getting paid the way they are getting paid That's the game because even on the Detroit side Marvin Jones had one of the worst games that I've ever seen him play Probably his worst NFL game ever right right and so it was just it was just bad across the board Thank God for the Sun God, right, right They thank the Sun God because exactly, you know, he had a great outing. I needed him for DFS So we give all thanks and all praise to a Monterey St. Brown as always We're going to dive in and talk some player props with a JJ forward today talk about his process and then talk about props He likes at Vanderbilt Sportsbook for this week and then as I mentioned later on today Rob Friedman pitching Ninja will swing by talk about some strikeout props for Friday night And then I'll close things out by talking some NASCAR too. That's not worth a headline But we'll talk about that later on as well because I still got to indulge myself even as we get into NFL season Let's begin things though by talking about some player props and I want to start things off your JJ by talking about Something we referenced a couple weeks ago when you had to run the podcast talking about projection building process That was for the full season talking about player props for a full year, but now pretty much every time we talk props We're talking for a single game. So how much does that process for you? Switch when you're looking at a single game versus a full season Yeah, look over a season I'm looking at things like win totals and and seeing how game scripts sort of might unfold across a 17-game campaign right for these teams and so that's gonna lead to these pass rate projections That are gonna be static if you will across the entire season But on a weekly basis that game script can wildly fluctuate from one game to another You know if there's a a team that's you know, maybe it's based on opponent Maybe a team's facing a really really good opponent that they're not typically facing and that means a more pass-heavy script for them Because they're gonna be trailing maybe it's because of injury, right? Maybe the opposing team that they're facing Has a quarterback injury or something and then it's gonna be a run heavy script So it's really you know looking at weekly numbers They're just naturally gonna be a little bit more accurate than then season long numbers Because you're looking at things on an individual matchup and game basis And so the other thing too is that you can be flexible with injuries and things that are changing within a team Whereas from a season long perspective, you're locked in it's done, you know, you can't do anything about it at this point So that's that those are the main differences, you know, I think weekly projections. You should just be naturally more accurate Right, exactly. You're not guessing as much on health and stuff like that Like injuries can happen during games, which is why unders are often viable when we're talking about some props and stuff like that You have to account for the possibility of that, but it's not a 20% chance. It's running back. It's hurt It's more like, you know, whatever the single-game odds for you know running back getting hurt and stuff like that may be Now when we had you on the show here last year JJ We talked about situations that stood out to you some spots where maybe there was from some fluidity Because in fluid situations, we're gonna have guests we're gonna have questions But sort of bookmakers and that can be a good situation to find some value So which fluid situations are you most interested in for this week in week one? Yeah, you know, I think that there are two wide receiver situations that are pretty interesting One of them obviously being with the Rams without Cooper cup You know, when you think about projections and sort of how things work off of each other You know, I know that this is a really really big thing with like mba dfs and and being able to just quickly react to players being Inactive at the very last second not that i'm an mba guy. This is this Talking to very high level, but with the nfl with football um, you know projections are not going to be as like Precise as they would be necessarily with the mba But uh, you have to think about how a player being out then affects other players on that team And what it means for playing time and so with the rams in particular You have cooper cup and then you look at the rest of those wide receivers on that team And there's really three other wide receivers outside of cup that are Relatively interesting. I guess you would say and that's van jefferson hukuna kua and tutu atwell Um, you know, you have tyler higby a tight end and that's that's a whole different story But what i'm saying is with with these wide receivers is that you know when you're in 11 personnel Which is a pretty common package that we see teams run and and you get these three wide sets That means that this the the the fourth wide receiver on the rams who might be pukuna kua might be tutu atwell We don't really know it's probably going to be nakua, but the fourth wide receiver on that team All of a sudden then becomes the third wide receiver on that team And when he's the third wide receiver on that team, he's going to be on the field a lot more In those 11 personnel sets So it's important to understand how that sort of shifts and moves and so I think with this rams team You know, you have a negative game script this week against a potential negative game script against the atl They probably will throw a lot of 11 personnel out there We know that shot mcbay likes that that that package and he likes to run that way You know, maybe they surprise us they run more 12 and too tight than sets just because of the kuper cup injury But regardless it just means that we're going to see more tutu atwell and pukuna kua You know van jefferson was going to be on the field a lot regardless Now his target share is going to get better right Because kuper cup is not in the picture and van jefferson's talent versus the rest of the talent on that team Is greater therefore his target share will increase more than likely at least from a projection standpoint But what's really really important is that when these guys are sidelined You know these lower on the on the depth chart wide receivers and players get more opportunity to just be on the field And so there's more opportunity for them to hit there over And and i really you know the other situation That i wanted to get to uh, which we could see we might not see it's not confirmed right now It's green bay green bay has two uh wide receiver injuries right now with romeo dobbs who got some practice in yesterday But christian mott's not at nowhere You know he's got an issue and so if if one of them are out if both of them are out That's gonna elevate a player like jaden reed who in 11 personnel and three wide sets at least in week one You know, hopefully he's able to build off of a good start to the season And then maybe become the wide receiver two or even wide receiver one on that team Who knows but at least in week one from the perspective of week one If christian mott's and romeo dobbs are both healthy That means jaden reed's only going to be on the field and three wide receiver sets for the most part right He's gonna be their slot guy and so if one of those guys are out then all of a sudden He's an every down every snap player And that's a huge huge deal from projection standpoint from him seeing a lot more production And then you hypothetically Going over so if you see one of those guys confirmed out that that means jaden reed's a more attractive option And I think the encouraging thing for jaden reed and for luke musgrave as well Is that even when they had christian mott's and romeo dobbs healthy during the preseason They're playing a lot of snaps with the first team offense So I think that it's not a total projection to say Oh, well, their snaps will go up like they're gonna play and I think that that's encouraging with them because it's not total Guesswork we've already seen them on the field a lot and I could use that for luke musgrave I assume on sunday in dfs. All right. Let's talk about some yardage props jj When you look at the board over at fan dual sportsbook, which yardage props are most enticing to you Yeah, so one of the ones that really stood out this week was clill herbert He is his rushing yards line was 49 and a half. Uh, I didn't check this morning So maybe a change but 49 and a half. Um, I think the over is a pretty good bet for for herbert He's likely to start the season in that backfield is the 1a in that bears offense You know, I think a player like roshan johnson could end up getting more involved as the season goes on But here in week one, you know, they're likely gonna lean on a guy who has some NFL experience more than than the rookie, right? They do have diante form in there But herbert was the clear starter in the preseason to me the bigger questions for clill herbert as a player Are in the receiving game and as a pass blocker, you know, they've openly talked about him Not being that effective as a pass blocker, which is partially why or largely why they went out and got roshan johnson Who's probably the best pass blocker from this year's draft class? And so, you know, you could see a decent game script against green bay, you know, especially with these wide receiver injuries Um, but even regardless of all of that, here's the the bottom line statistic Clill herbert has seen double digit rushes in 10 career games He's hit the over in every single one of those games So i'm i'm feeling pretty confident. He's an incredibly efficient runner very very good on the ground I feel good that he can get to this number And again, it's another spot where the snaps during the preseason aligned with what you're saying Where he was on the field with the first team offense a lot during the preseason That does matter any of the yarders props you like for this week, kj Yeah, so I also have uh, james connor under 59 and a half rushing yards. Um, i'm very worried about Uh, this cardinals offense in general with josh. Why would that be curious? What would lead you to be worried there? Yeah, right, right, you know, the coaching issues Could be there. I mean, we we've all seen the clips of jonathan gannon Hyping up his team and talking to ron dell I think we all knew that something was up when he had that ron dell more conversation earlier this off season But regardless of all that regardless of all the the speculation, um You know, washington has one of the best front sevens in football There's not that much of a threat of a passer in this game with josh dobbs likely starting And so why would they not sell to stop a guy like james connor in this game? Um, and it's not like, you know, if you look at what happened last year with connor connor didn't get to this number in seven of 13 games last year And so you then layer on top the fact that some of those games were with kyler murray with a better offense Uh, now he gets this backup quarterback, which you know dobbs is like a third stringer on most teams if that And then they're facing a good front and what's probably going to be a negative game script. There's seven point underdogs I just have a hard time seeing connor get to this number. I think it should be Honestly, like nine and a half or 10 yards lower than it currently is. I could not agree more I don't understand why that number is so high given the team given the potential game script and stuff like that That one makes a lot of sense. What about touchdown props? What you seeing there for this week? Yeah, I got a couple of them. Uh, one is johan dots and now You have to shop a little bit for this one because johan dots and a fandal sports book His uh, any time touchdown Is is relatively fair But over on draft kings you can get this at plus 235 as in any time touchdown You have terry mclauren. He's banged up But even if terry mclauren goes johan dots is projected to see about a 20 target share If not more in this offense because mclauren might not even be 100 if he does go Arizona secondary not very strong, especially at cornerback Obviously, that's what johan dots is going to take advantage of now dots and really outperformed in the touchdown column last year Which could be partially why maybe the number looks the way that it does You know again, if you look at other books, it's like plus 180 and this is plus 235 There's a significant difference at at dk in particular. Um, and maybe they're saying You know, they're seeing that regression is going to hit because dots and did score Basically three or four more touchdowns and he should have based on his usage and based on where he was seeing his targets But man the matchups there johan dotson is a very very good football player Uh, I have a you know, the it's just it just seems like a very easy go-to bet at plus 235 and also like sam howell is like style at unc was like deep balls like uh, not from like a rate perspective, but like it was He liked go balls and that seems to mesh well with johan dotson and his kind of style play and last year after He came back to injury became a full-time starter once again His target share was right in line with the chlorins down that stretch run So although I think a lot of the touchdown regression stuff comes from what he did earlier on He actually earned a legit role later in the year Yeah, and his his yard per hour run number was pretty weak to start the season or in the front half of the season That's a predictive metric that we always want to look at and the second half of the season It's sort of like what we saw at george pickens the second half of the season things got a lot a lot better It's almost like he was a rookie wide receiver. So, uh, you know, I'm pretty into dotson, uh, you know at that number Okay, that is 175 of fandals sportsbook But as always make sure you're shopping around for the best number on the johan dotson anytime touchdown Any other touchdown props this week jj? Yeah, I got one more You know that with with these anytime touchdowns. I like to get a little weird, uh, you know with it I'm gonna say, you know, this is more of a long shot. It's plus 300 on fandals sports book I'm gonna say tank bigsby as an anytime touchdown Uh, there's a chance there's an outside chance That we see bigsby as the jags goal line guy last year etn Converted just three of 13 goal line rushes now I know that bigsby had that fumble in the preseason and maybe that changes things and they uh, don't feel as confident But bigsby is a very physical runner more physical than Travis etn bigsby looked really good in my prospect model too. I think he's just a good running back But there's also a chance that in this game jacksonville just gets ahead, um, you know against a rookie quarterback In anthony richardson. They don't have jonathan taylor. It could just get weird. It could just be a rough situation So, uh, i'm looking at tank bigsby seeing a positive game script Maybe he's the goal line guy too But maybe he gets some run in the second half and that could really lead to uh, you know, him scoring a touchdown And I think a lot of that was that was a lot of the reason why they took tank bigsby was etns He got a lot of work inside the five but was not productive on it I think they wanted more of a banger kind of a guy to get the job done there All right jj any other props to stand out to you across week number one in the nfl Yeah, I'm gonna go to the game in seattle or with seattle and la And in that game I have a same game parlay for you This is a plus five 27 if you put it together cam makers under 62 and a half yards on the ground Uh, I think that could happen if the script goes in, uh, seattle's favor Which I think we're all sort of projecting that to happen And then kairan williams has gotten a little bit of buzz out of out of camp and such You know this this offseason is sort of splitting a backfield potentially splitting a back with acres But at least being the pass catcher in that backfield And so he might be on the field more if that negative game script hits And then i'm just going to go straight to dk metcalf on the other side I'm going to hit the over on 60 and a half receiving yards. I know js and jackson smith and jigba Uh, it sounds like he's going to go But I don't know if he's going to be seeing the the full number of snaps that he would see You know, maybe in week five week six with that with that wrist. Um, the ram secondary is horrific So I think the dk metcalf can take advantage of that And then I also have him as an anytime touchdown scorer because yeah I mean, you know, if he's going to if he's going to gobble up a lot of yards might as well go with the touchdown regression The favorable regression with dk metcalf and say he's going to find the end zone in week one After not finding the end finding the end zone nearly enough in 2022 That is currently plus 5 31 for the candy there's under 62 and a half rushing yards dk metcalf over 60 and a half receiving yards in the dk metcalf Anytime touchdown I think the key thing jj with same game parlay as always you want these things to mesh well together and obviously like metcalf over and acres under May not because it's like, uh, you know, it implies seahawks are passing and the rams are also passing But a dk metcalf touchdown Implies the seahawks just going points and that increases the odds the rams are playing from behind Which means you're getting better odds than acres and you also have the other out like you mentioned If kairan williams gets more work that could also be a rush and under their their rushing offense was hideously inefficient last year To so that's an arrangement under there as well So I think that one does make a lot of sense from like a process perspective Making sure that those bets like make sense together And I think that you definitely have the nail on the head with that one That is jj. Zachary. So make sure you check him out on twitter at late round qb jj Lot of stuff for you in season. Uh, what people find that they go to late round com if they're trying to find your work entering week number one Yeah, so right now, you know draft season's over fantasy football. So the draft guide doesn't really matter, uh for for folks I mean, it still might be interesting, uh for for some people to to manage the roster in season But I got a patreon and in that patreon. I have weekly rankings rest of season rankings live q and a's We have a great discord community. You can check it all out over on the late round Alrighty and check out jj's podcast as well the right late round fantasy football podcast jj. Good luck to you in week one We'll talk to you again next week Thanks, buddy Alrighty that is jj. Zachary senior and you can find him on twitter at late round qb If you want the patreon go to late round com for that as mentioned though The fun does not stop there because it is friday and it's still baseball season, man We can't give up on our k-props just yet, which means we still got rob freeman coming on the show every friday And he is here with us right now. You can find rob on twitter at pitching angel You can find him at peacock mlb mlb on fox and fan dual sportsbook rob It is a true delight to have you get added into this friday show as well. How you doing today? I'm doing great. I miss the intro music though I know I didn't even think about that So you miss the intro music and I have a segment after you which means you don't hear the outro music either So like you're kind of in an island here and I feel like you got the run run to the stick I kind of feel like it too, but let's let's brighten up everybody's day with some awesome baseball Absolutely, and That's why we need to have you on this show still every friday despite it being nfl season is because it's friday There are jam packed slates pretty much every single friday and a lot of good value in strikeout props because A lot of times the strikeout props rob the issue can be is that they're picked over You know, we got a lot of smart people who are betting into strikeout prop markets and They make those lines efficient. Maybe they're distracted. Maybe i'm distracted right now So like you've got a couple fewer eyes and that can be a good opportunity to potentially find some value In the strikeout prop markets when you look at the friday slate rob any props standing out to you right now You know, I think there were there were a number I was A number I was close on um, I ended up with a repair as is one of my favorites It's like I always go with him like just do for for six k's or more Um braddish for six k's more and then sanga for seven or more just because it's codis sanga and he's He's on fire and pitch me. It's a very strikeoutable lineup Now we were talking about pares I think it was either last week or a couple of weeks ago and Wasn't his best night But I think that it's important to keep in mind the context around that start because it was his second consecutive start Against a nationals team that is a very low strikeout team You talked about how shers are you know in a repeat matchup is one thing because he's a veteran But like pares is 20 and so like having him face the same lineup That's that's a tough situation to be in the fillies are a good team, but they're not a low strikeout team So I feel like for pares tonight. It's probably a better spot for strikeouts even though It's a tougher matchup right? Yeah, that's what I was thinking as well as uh, I don't know what my voice is doing today But as well as with sandy sandy's injury, I think they'll try to get a little more out of them The bullpen was used a lot yesterday. So I'm just thinking maybe give him a few more pitches It always comes down to pitches with him and the it is important to consider those factors You know is the bullpen fresh and in this situation the answer is no Um, the bullpen has had some blips at times as well So maybe they are wanting to use their really talented young guy as we get down to the stretcher of the season So pares over five and a half minus 140 the first leg for rob. Let's go back to kyle bradish Which is one of the ones you had mentioned as well taking on the boston red sox and boston's a tough team to face because They've got a lot of veterans in that lot of who can kind of make your life difficult But bradish the number I think is pretty fair over five and a half is plus one or two What led you to be unbradish for tonight? Just he's on a streak of pitching really well I think five of his last six games. He's had six k's or more Boston Generally is a tough lineup. I think they've been a little easier lately And I think bradish is pitching particularly well. So that's that's the reason why I'm leaving When you've been watching bradish has there been a change that you've noticed that has led to this this uptick in I would say consistency as being a thing as well. Has there is something you've noticed there or no I think it's breaking stuff has been consistently really good. Yeah recently I think he just had to find his release point and be consistent with it And that's what I'm seeing now is he he looks really good. Okay. So bradish over five and a half is plus one or two Over at fandals sports book and of course, we're going with uh, we're playing the hits rob. We're going with all the The key guys feel like it too. I know and like honestly like Senga is like a guy who earns that though And I'm not gonna think against him, right? Right. It's like it's senga but it's also senga against a team that I feel like has been a fixture in this this uh This discussion throughout this year and the twins because they just love to strike out And like they're still good offense, you know full full respect for them for being good offense But like they strike out so much and senga six and a half strikeouts minus 156 And again, we talked about this last week raw But he seemed like a competitor who even when there's not a lot on the line He seems like he wants that ball seems like he's going to go deep in games And that's what you need to justify it over on a number this big Yeah, the only thing i'm thinking is it's some kind of trap or something because Like like to me, this is a game where senga should excel. He's been really good. I think he's trying to You know in his mind He's a competitor and also wants to show that he's the ace of this, you know And and this is another chance to put that stamp on it for next year And I don't think it's a meaningless game for him. So I I anticipate him Putting up a lot of strikeouts in this game, you know, I think the numbers low Yes, I'm going there. I agree. I think the senga is a delightful guy to watch So those numbers for rob pares over five and a half minus 140 Kyle brattish over five and a half at plus one or two and then senga over six and a half minus 156 now I think that senga could be an option when we're talking about The daily strikeout leaderboard it is actually up right now And senga is the favorites He is four to one you say kikuchi who has been phenomenal from basically middle of may early june on He's been a delight to watch but there's also blake snail. So It's a good leaderboard for tonight rob any value for you when you're looking at this board right now Yeah, i'm surprised at taj bradley so low like I may take a look at him I think he's got a you know a match up against a very strikeoutable lineup And uh, and he's capable of putting up a lot of k so that number is pretty good for him. I mean It seems like some value there to me Yeah, taj bradley 17 to 1 to lead the night in strikeouts and it is a loaded slate Like there are a lot of guys who can rack up a lot of strikeouts, but he can too and like he said good matchup for him So I don't think that's totally out of play For for bradley tonight. I think that's a very fair number Yeah, I would think so. I think um, you know, I normally I'd be on snell's side It's a tough tough lineup he's facing. Yeah Um, so I don't know I to me singa is a natural thing. I looked at it. I'm like, all right Senga's got to be the favorite. I would thought I thought taj would be a little bit I thought there'd be a little bit more money on him too Yeah, if you can't quite get to the the taj bradley to like to lead the night in strikeouts prop He is uh over six and a half is plus 124 for him I don't think that's a bad number either given the mariners are another team will strikeout play Yep, I think that's it. And if you know with him, it's a little random being a rookie Yeah, but he's got the stuff and he's had those games where he just you know racks up a ton of strikeouts I don't see why he can't do it against it. You know against the mariners lineup Okay, so check out the daily strikeout leaderboard over at fandals sportsbook to see who stands out to you Rob is in on taj bradley 17 to 1 but a lot of good value potentially on the board over there for right now That is rob freeman make sure you check him out on twitter again at pitching ninja find his work on peacock mlb mlb on fox and of course on fandals sportsbook as well and rob I'll find a way to make sure we can get the intro music for you at some point I don't know if I had to like, you know ship it to you whatever Like uh, like a cd will go old school so shift to you via cd. We'll find a way I'm gonna just use my ringtone. So Anyone has to just call me you're gonna like answer the like this is my issues when I hear the song I talk really fast but I talk fast in general but like and you're gonna like pick up the phone and like be talking Like a thousand miles per minute. Like that's the way it's gonna go Yeah, I mean I was expecting instead of coffee and stuff. So now I just now I gotta go drink some coffee Well, rob, I appreciate it regardless. Thank you so much for coming on once again for today I'm looking forward to you to talking to you again once again next week as these playoff races continue to heat up Let's go Alrighty check out rob freeman on twitter at pitching ninja find him again here at fandall sports book Doing a lot of fun streams and stuff whether be for peacock or for us here at fandall So uh delight to have him on the show once again every friday We're gonna talk about some nascar bets I like for kansas to close out the week here in just one second But first the nfl is back and the best place to celebrate is on fandall because right now all customers Get a no sweat bed for week one just place a bet on any week one nfl game You'll get bonus bets back if you don't win bet on spreads player props totals and more So visit the fandall sports book app and kick off the nfl season with america's number one sports book must be 21 plus and president Select states refund issued is not withdrawable bonus bets that expire seven days after a seat max refund five dollars Unless otherwise specified restrictions apply see terms at sportsbook dot fandall dot com Fandall is offering online sports waging in kansas under an agreement with kansas star casino llc gambling problem Call 1 800 gambler or visit fandall dot com slash rg in colorado isle of michigan new jersey ohio pennsylvania illinois tenancy in virginia call 1 800 next step or text next step to five three three four two in arizona 188 789 7777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in connecticut 1809 with it in indiana 1805 224 700 visit ks gambling health dot com in kansas 180777 770 stop in louisiana md gambling health dot orc in maryland 1 800 gambler dot net in west virginia or call 1805 224 700 and y oming hope is here visit gambling helpline ma.org or call 800 3 2 7 50 50 or 24 7 support in massachusetts or call 180778 hope and y or text hope and y in York Let's finish up here by talking about some nascar in kansas the second round of the nascar cup series playoffs is this weekend and It's a pretty interesting race because we have not seen a track a race on a mile and a half track in the cup series since Memorial day and it's now past labor day So it's been a long time since we've seen these cars on this track type and since that time we've seen teams like ford I guess manufacturers like ford make some pretty big gains now a lot of it has been Has gone to rfk racing chris busher winning three of the past four races on ovals and That could lead you to say okay made in this in rfk stuff like that. I actually do think that the fact That we've seen these gains from ford is somewhat encouraging for the other ford teams that haven't searched just yet And as a result, I actually showed value in ryan blaney to win this kansas race at 22 To 1 blaney driving from team penske and team penske has had a pretty disappointing season But blaney did win charlotte with the most recent race at a mile and a half track And that was a long time ago very different situation different track than we have in kansas for this week but I think it was encouraging to see him not just Win that race but also went in pretty dominant fashion with a third place average running position Blaney hasn't had a lot of good finishes at kansas recently But he didn't the past. He had a string where he was finishing the top five consistently leading some laps as well So I don't think it's a bad track, right? He's had some bad luck and bad situations here recently My model is blaney's win odds at 7.2 percent his implied odds at 22 to 1 are 4.4 percent I showed good enough value there. So I will take blaney to win at 22 to 1 When I wrote up the betting guide over on uh fando research earlier on this week I had three top 10 bets in that one One of them has since moved that was a j alman dinger. He shortened to plus 600 I do show or plus 650. I should say and I have value there a bit. I have dinger at Fifth or 16 percent his implied odds there at 13 percent. So a bit of value But the better value to me is in the other two bets we talked about there Those are eric jones plus 550 austin cindrick has shortened as well to 8 to 1 But still showing value there personally and jones is another guy where it depends on how much stock you put in What we've seen recently because again no mile and a half tracks, but we've seen some like Higher speed non drafting tracks and like i'm putting Darrington in that bucket. It's high enough speed. I know it's a different track than than kansas But some overlap at least michigan was in there pokano and nashville. So those are the four races since charlotte at Faster non drafting tracks and those four races eric jones has four consecutive top 10s So he's been much better than what he was earlier on this year and in the charlotte race I think he actually showed speed there, but Had a transmission issue pretty early. He retired early also had a pretty good run in vegas earlier on this year So although legacy motor club has not had a good season Jones has been good recently on tracks that require a decent amount of horsepower to be good I think that's encouraging for this week now jones Like blaney has a pretty bad recent track record at kansas where he's had a lot of poor finishes No finishes better than 21st since he left joe gibbs racing, but when he was with jgr Mean good equipment. He did run pretty well there. So I feel like to me I don't want to overrate the recent results for jones at kansas and say he can't run this track because I feel like you probably can my model is jones at 21.9 for a top 10 implied odds of plus 550 are 15.4 percent syndrake is 8 to 1 his implied odds are 11.1 percent I've got him at 17.7 percent Kind of the same thought process as with blaney where we've seen ford overall getting better recently syndrake actually does have good history at at kansas He had a top 12 average running position here in both races last year So showed some speed there and was good in michigan too now How much does that matter because it's like a drafting ish track Very high speed and stuff like that. I don't know but I don't think it's a total non factor And if we still get syndrake here at 8 to 1 for a top 10, I think that's pretty enticing So the three bets I like for nascar this week at kansas are going to be ryan blaney at 22 to 1 eric jones at plus 550 and then austin syndrake at 8 to 1 potentially dinger at plus 650 if you want but I think that one's Shortened enough where i'm not as interested anymore That is all that we have here for today and this week on covering the spread gotta give a massive massive. Thank you two or two guests for today JJ zacharyson and rob freeman you can find jj on twitter at late row qb and find rob on twitter at pitching ninja I am at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s you can also follow fandal research at fandal research Want to thank you all for tuning in for today? Good luck with your bets across week one across this friday for mlb Whether you're betting racing for this week, whatever it may be. Good luck to you. Have a fantastic weekend We'll talk to you once again on monday. This has been covering the spread right here on the fan duel podcast network