 This is covering the spread here are your hosts Jim Saunas and Dr. Ed Feng What is going on everybody? Welcome on into covering the spread that's right here on the fan duo podcast network in number fire Com we're there. We are talking some college football for week number four by talking to Pamela Maldonado of Yahoo getting your thoughts on this week's games the marquee matchups and her favorite bets of the week My name is Jim Saunas. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire.com join here as always by Dr Ed Feng you can find his work over at the power bank calm We are back to talking college football Ed and a good time to do so because you live in Ann Arbor And it's a fun time to be in our Ann Arbor right now because Michigan not looking too bad. How you doing today? I'm doing pretty well. Yeah, Michigan looks pretty good and a lot of the top teams in college football Don't look that good at all I I I still like Alabama even though they just squeaked it out at Florida But you know Clemson looks like they have some serious issues on the offensive side of the ball Ohio State has some issues on the defensive side of the ball Oklahoma doesn't look that great and It's gonna be an interesting year. So as I was watching games on Saturday I definitely had this thought that you know, you know I turned on that Ohio State game to see see if they if Tulsa could pull it off they couldn't but the margin was certainly padded by a pick six at the end and and Yeah, so I thought about tweeting out just kind of this whole chaos situation on Saturday And it's like I'm gonna hold off but then of course Bill Connelly on Monday morning You know has an article talking about the chaos situation and and talking about Michigan in the playoffs and Michigan look good against Northern Illinois and From an analytics perspective, you know We move a little bit more on college football teams through three games than we ever should in the NFL Right, so Super Bowl contenders is playing badly through through three games and just kind of squeaking by You know, it's a long season with regression to the mean and their skill level You know, they're probably going to regress to where we had them in the preseason But college football teams change so much there. There are a lot of different things can happen and Even people around here are starting to forget the two and four disaster that that Michigan had last year Seeing that Jim Bart Harbaugh seems to have this team doing pretty well I had a lot of questions about whether the defensive coordinator higher was was the right move I thought it was a move that he had to get right so far so good So again, but it's also only three games as well, but you know, Michigan's up to 10th in my numbers right now The Michigan predictions have been pretty closely tracking the market I have Michigan as 16 point favorite over Rutgers. The markets are in excess of 20 right now. There've been some injuries suspensions with Rutgers But I kind of don't think that number is coming down. Yeah, so it'll be interesting to see I'm very interested to see where that closes, but but I Don't know. I don't think that's coming down. I don't think it's coming down to where my number is talking about Bill Connelly and I was reading as the SP plus rankings earlier this week and I Was surprised to see Michigan 6th because of what you alluded to with what happened last year So I think that that probably makes you feel better about putting them 10th in your numbers Seeing Bill Connelly have them up in 6th And I think that what you said about the preseason priors is interesting because we'll talk to Pamela about this as well later on but like For me, that's the tough thing that I've had that I've had to like to side Okay, how much do on a factor it in with my NFL numbers as we get deeper into the year and like you said I have had that anchor pretty firmly in for a lot of stuff But like it is tough to decide how much we want to go with and I think that with college It's a very different situation as you said Yeah, it's a very different situation and you know, I think Bill actually has Michigan as like I mean basically has a 50-50 at Wisconsin Next week My numbers are not that optimistic. I think I'd have them as about a fiver Michigan would be about a five or six point underdog when you when you factor in the home field after that But we still got a week of football to play. So we'll see see what happens Michigan getting into big 10 play and obviously with the huge matchup versus Notre Dame in Chicago And we're gonna talk about that game with Pamela Maldonado. You can find her on Twitter at Pamela M 35 She of course, it's a betting analyst and writer for Yahoo We'll be talking to her about her new gig later on today We're also gonna preview week number four of college football and talk about her favorite bets for this week If you're looking for the NFL show for this week that is coming up tomorrow Ariel Epstein is gonna join us of sports grid and talk about the best bets across the NFL for week number three Check out some big games in the board But also talk to Ariel about player props because we talked to her about NBA player props last year And she also bets like defensive player props which was my mind because I can never do that So we'll talk to her about that and get her thoughts on week number three to get that as it goes live Make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast to search for covering the spread on Apple podcast Spotify Stitcher Google podcast whatever it may be hit the subscribe button and leave us a rating and review if you like what you hear So NFL coming up tomorrow, which will include covering the past going back through week number two Across the NFL. We'll talk to Pamela about week four of college football in just one second But first a football fans fangirl is giving you the opportunity to bet on the third week of the NFL season All you can do is go to fandalsportsbook.com or download the Fandalsportsbook app place a 3 plus like Parley Wade run any week 3 NFL game And if your bet loses get a refund and site credit max refund $10 bet on week 3 the NFL season with Fandal by heading over to Fandalsportsbook today and placing a risk-free NFL Parley must be 21 plus and present Arizona Colorado, Iowa, Illinois Indiana, Michigan, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia or West Virginia Refund issued as a non-thrable site credit that expired in seven days max refund $10 restrictions apply see full terms at sportsbook.fandalsportsbook.com Same game parlay available for multiple sports in all states on mobile web Gambling problem call 1-800 Gamber or visit fandalsportsbook.com RG in Indiana 1-800-9 with it for confidential help in Michigan 1-800-270-7117 in Tennessee Call the red line at 1-800-899-789 in West Virginia 1-800-Gambler.net in Arizona 1-800-next-step or text next step to 533-42 Covering the present Let's bring Pamela Maldonado back into covering the spread to talk about some college football for week number four Pamela First of all, congratulations are in order. This is first time we've spoken to you since you went on full-time with Yahoo Congrats on that. How's it going so far? Thank you so much. It's a company that I definitely am appreciative to be with the crew is great We have an editing team a social team. So it's a big change of pace I really love it because I can knock out so much content and knocking out content. I love to do it So happy to be with Yahoo. Well, it's well deserved. Happy to see that happening How is NFL and college football season been going for you so far college football has been Fantastic to say the least through three weeks first off. I can't believe we're in week four already line by But through the first three weeks, I've correctly predicted 10 out of 12 underdog outright wins So making some plus money it through that the two underdogs that I missed I had they were 14 point underdogs Lesson learned they are not on my card this week College football and then NFL I'm holding my own my teasers are doing well and my player props are kind of sticking around And we'll see what happens with those and you said the NFL was not previously something you were you know It's super jazz, but how's the transition been for you in trying to add on NFL? I know they're like, you know when we're working for companies They will ask us to do NFL except when I see NFL stuff like that How we feel the transition has gone for you in you know trying to really beef up the NFL Because obviously college it sounds like you're already set there. Yeah college. I'm holding but that's because that's my bread and butter I've been doing that for years. I've been born and raised in Texas and Texas, but college. So NFL I've actually didn't start I'd never watched if it didn't happen if it happened before 2016 I have no idea what happened in the NFL because I didn't watch NFL until 2016 when my buddy was like, hey, you're so good at college do this NFL contest with me and I was like what I don't I just I don't do NFL. He's like, it's the same thing. You're fine It is not the same thing and I am not fine Really different and every year I've tried to tweak how I look at NFL And you kind of have to ignore the stats and the analytics and kind of run with what you saw the week before and Really do focus on overreactions and under reactions and situational spots and the visual games Like I think there's a lot more intuitive rather than like relying on numbers in NFL And it's taken me a lot to figure that out. So I'm finding my niche and my niche is kind of more with player props I'm with now will this he's I'm doing well with NFL teasers So I'm kind of fun That's what people need to do is once you know what you're good at something and stick to that and kind of avoid everything else So like totals, they're so hard in the NFL. So I don't touch them And the good thing is you found that niche in college football already because basically what you do is you're very numbers based in College and talk to you last year you're talking about trying to identify team strengths and team weaknesses and saying, okay, where does a strength match with the opposing team's weakness and Obviously, it's been very successful for you The issue that I would run into is at this time of year It's tough because we got varying competition levels and stuff like that And we're looking at numbers trying to identify what those strengths are what those weaknesses are So which numbers do you lean on this time of year specifically when you're trying to identify what those strengths and weaknesses are I think right now entering week four We're kind of focusing more on the strength of schedule a team is 3-0 and we've seen that in the big 10 There's six 3-0 teams. Well, there's a few of those 3-0 teams who have made two Mac teams And that's a couple of SCS teams and now you're about to face another SEC opponent or another big like good luck You're gonna get like Trampled on and you kind of have to look at okay Well, is it just 3-0 like legit or are we gonna start to see what the true colors are and so It's a lot of weariness going on right now We're in between the early weeks where we have our data, but it's not necessarily strong entering conference competition So you have to kind of use some of that intuition intuition and say, okay Well, this big SEC team is going to crush this little nobody team even if they did face Lesser opponents, but because the SEC teams are just like bigger. They're bigger. They're faster. They're stronger And it's just unfortunate, but it's the kind of truth at the case when you start looking at recruiting numbers and all of that So I'm always gonna look at strength versus weakness and that always starts first with the past rush versus offensive line So through three weeks, you already have a good pretty sample size of who has a terrible offensive line and Florida State They still do So you kind of look at the opponents that they're facing Well, are they even in the top 20 top 25 even top 50 for the past rush? And aren't they gonna be able to generate some of that quarterback pressure and that could come into play? So keep it simple and that's always like my first go-to stat past rush offensive line Excellent so so Pam, you know, we're through three weeks and You know, how eager are you to get off your preseason prior? Right? I mean you stood up on these teams How would you call yourself very eager to get off or do you try to remember, you know, what we thought about these teams three weeks ago? I'm still I'm in that I'm in that great area as well when it comes to college because I was really high on Iowa entering the season and so far they're showing me and Preseason I said this is a team that can win the big 10 title and it's not gonna be because of their offense It's gonna be the defense that wins games. Well, here we are entering week four That's exactly what's been happening. Their defense is absolutely crushing I do need to see more from this offense if I think they're gonna be like a playoff contender But I think that's something that can be built into but as long as you have a strong offensive strong defense that can definitely handle that Put some applies to a quarterback pressure take have some takeaways you become I don't know if you guys have noticed but like 2020 this season 2021. We don't really have a lot of strong Anything we don't really have like a strong Heisman contender We don't have a strong like playoff contender. It's kind of like everyone's kind of base level right now and I think that really does open up the door for teams like Iowa to not have such a strong offense because their defense is so good and That becomes Different than what we're used to high-powered explosive offenses So you're having to kind of balance that idea from preseason where we all thought it was gonna be Clemson and Cheyewa Galele who's gonna crush and then well, they're not and so So now you have these Prenotations preseason of like these offenses are gonna do well Nobody is really doing well jumping off the page So now this opens up the door for I have to Backtrack everything and now look at it from a defensive perspective, which is something that we're just not used to doing Yeah, absolutely. I mean I think I still put Alabama I think Alabama is gonna be There at the end of the year when when all is said and done But it's really the the fall off of those other teams the Clemson's the Ohio State's Ohio State particularly on defense just because they had those issues last year And yeah, it's gonna be it's I mean, you know a lot of people are kind of writing about the the chaos this year And I definitely agree that that's what we're gonna see Now one thing I'm happy to not see the same Clemson the same Alabama the same I'm happy to see a little bit of change it opens up the door for a team like Oregon to come in it comes It opens up the door for in Iowa. It opens up the door for maybe even case state No, I want to say that I mean they're doing really well like on all of these are defensive our defense first teams and They're winning games because of a defense lacking in the offense. So I mean, I I'm open for the chaos I love it bring it on it changes things up a bit Yeah, I'm not sure exactly that like it's gonna be like a defensive kind of year But I do think it's a year that we're not gonna see Alabama Clemson Ohio State as a 14-point favorite in their conference championship games Like that that's probably not happening this year. And I think that's gonna be great That alone keeps things interesting. Yeah One thing you'd mentioned before Pamela is that you would add these big underdogs You're trying to bet, you know, see if they cover, you know, like a 14-point spread You made a video about that for Yahoo this week talking about identifying your weaknesses and tracking your bets You can decide which markets you want to go into I want to talk about the flip side of that, you know, you're tracking your bets, you know, where you excel What have been your strengths? What have been your most advantageous markets for you this year? And why do you think you've done well but well equipped to handle those specific markets? The games that I've done best on like I said, I had ten outright underdog money lines And all of those were five points or less So those are the markets that I'm looking at the games that are two and a half to seven point spreads And I think that it's a lot of misconception of like, oh, it's such a small spread It's like the NFL You're only giving me two and a half with the chiefs or like six and a half at home with the chiefs I'm gonna take the best quarterback. This is college and there's a huge difference when road splits and homes home splits You see it more often than not in college because these players are still developing their skill set And they're a lot better at home than they are on the road And so you kind of have to look for those types of weaknesses And I think it is a lot more intuitive if I've just been watching college football for years And I know like it's a lot of them still have the same head coaches So you're the players may change but the coaching schemes are still pretty much the same and you kind of become familiarized with What coaches like to do with their offensive schemes both home and a rope on the road And I think we're also seeing a big difference with crowds being back in in the stadiums And so I am way a little bit more to some of that home field advantage Because it gets really loud like in that whiteout game was just absolute madness and chaos and I loved every bit of it And so I weighed a little bit more to fend state and it ended up coming through But I mean I'm focusing more on those smaller spreads once you start getting to like the 14s and the 17s For favorites, especially there's a lot this week, but in particular I don't know if you've noticed but there's like 21 point spreads or higher on like three quarters of the game There's a lot and I don't want to touch those whatsoever Do I wanted to I take underdogs because I think they can win I'm not taking an underdog because I think they'll lose by 17 instead of 20 right So let's talk about one of those games that Is is not a huge point spread we have Wisconsin and Notre Dame at Soldier Field in Chicago right now Fandle has Wisconsin is a six and a half point favorite Jack Cohn is playing his former team. So he's either gonna show Paul Chris that he should have won the job or We'll see that he transferred because he couldn't win the job. So what do you what are you seeing in this game? I see no value in this game One other thing that I kind of I love to do for college football is stay away from the marquee matchups The Alabama the Florida the Notre Dame Wisconsin. These are the games. These are the games of the week every single week These are the number one games that the sportsbook are paying exact attention to so I think Notre Dame kid Lose by five. I think Wisconsin can win by seven like I think it's that close to call But I would lean to Notre Dame at plus five and a half here because Notre Dame they haven't faced a run team and Wisconsin They haven't faced a strong passing team. So both of these stats most of the post post Both of these defensive scouts are skewed to both sides and there's not one single thing to differentiate neither of them have like a solidified Strength or weakness in their offense or their defense So I think you have to look into the further details and the best that I could find was turnover margin and Wisconsin is top 25 in Turnovers they have a minus three turnover ratio and he has a They have two quarterbacks right now being utilized for Wisconsin in a Merck's and Wolf Zero passing touchdowns and three interceptions and Notre Dame is a top 40 team in takeaways This defense for the Irish have forced five interceptions one fumble and 13 sacks I think that's going to be the difference maker and I know that Wisconsin is a run first team But I want to have a quarterback who can at least put a passing touchdown instead of three interceptions so my lane would be here to Notre Dame plus five and a half and come out with the outright win Well, I think that the interesting thing to hear is you're talking about staying away from marquee matches because sports folks have a Lot of attention on those games. I feel like it's even worse when it's Notre Dame specifically Because if any team is going to be getting notoriety outside of a marquee game even it's gonna be Notre Dame So I feel like you're probably just staying away from all Notre Dame games in general then correct. Yeah, probably um, I think like Yes, I will say there was one underdog It was last season when they were playing against UTSA and I was like I loved UTSA last season And they were I think like 18 point underdogs and I was like I think they can win this game and they lost the game by like six And I mean you look for like I would always play if you are playing this team these teams I'd always look to the underdog rather than to cover big favorite spreads Because that's where the market is gonna go to anyway So like Wisconsin at home the line already ticked up. He said it was at or it's changed a little bit went from What was a lot? It was five and a half to it's now six and a half So it is it does seem like Despite it being Chicago, which is a pretty no-name heavy city It doesn't seem like there's been action on Wisconsin there exactly and I just think I'm never gonna try to guess what the books are doing I just know the day the Lester teams the Mac teams Those are the ones they're not paying attention to the one that is like advertised on every commercial that has like a pump of video And a high video for those are the ones that I want to stay away from because more often than not Those are gonna be like damn near exact lines on both the total and the spread But you're if you're telling me that Wisconsin opened five and a half and it's now six and a half I like Notre Dame even more on this spot All right, perfect. Let's move now to Texas A&M versus Arkansas This one's in Jerry world out in Dallas Texas A&M five and a half point favorite totally There's 47 and a half Got Zach Calzada starting here and it seemed like he when he came on initially in the way for Haines King Didn't look that great But looked a bit more comfortable in his first full game as starter obviously lesser opponent there But how are you looking at Calzada here and how does his starting impact your view of Texas A&M for this game? A&M is always gonna be that weird team for me I cannot and this has been for years now. I cannot get A&M right every time I bet on them I'm wrong every time I bet against them. I'm wrong So you you find those teams where you just sometimes you just can't figure out and that's okay I think Wisconsin I think Arkansas and A&M though the historically these two teams I've really always played tough against each other These are generally low scoring games and if you look at these offenses this season It looks to be another low scoring game this time around because neither of them are have any type of explosive offense You're talking about a backup quarterback I think Arkansas here is in a really good spot to contend against A&M their defense they're all they've always been a strong defensive team and There's nothing that says differently that that's going to be changing this time around I would be looking to Arkansas not only just on the plus But I would be looking to them to win outright and definitely looking at the under is definitely worth an option here Yeah, I mean Arkansas look at them. They're run first team They're six right now in rushing offense and A&M is shown to be vulnerable against the run You want to give me a team that is has a strong defense who has the ability to slow down the clock I like Arkansas as home underdog here plus five and a half and plus on the money line is what I would be considering Excellent Let's move on to our third game. We got Kansas State at Oklahoma State Oklahoma State's a six and a half point favorite total 45 and a half both. He seems a 3-0 Which team do you think comes comes out ahead here? This is a exact this is a perfect example of these two teams have played Nobody Both of their friend defenses. They're both top 10 in rushing defense Except if you look at the scheduling neither have them either of them have played a rushing team They're playing teams who are ranked 90th or worse in rushing offense So yeah, they're gonna look like a top five run to a run defense Neither has faced a run team So the question becomes who's gonna defend the run better when both of their offensive strengths is the run I think this is gonna be like a great game to watch this line is something is one that has moved It opened up at seven and it's now five and a half I would definitely want the seven for the underdog, but the value is lost from seven to five and a half I definitely think that Kansas State can win this game But if you're talking about being a long-term or winning sports better You want to get the best number and right now you're not getting it And I do like K-State to come out with the outright win because they're playing so strong even without their quarterback in Thompson it That situation doesn't bother me because they're a run first team and the strength and he wasn't even like a leading rusher on the team So that's always a benefit and they're to the running backs that they have the defense that they have Kansas State is definitely a contender here But you're getting the worst number at seven to five and a half if this number creep creeps back up to six Six and a half. I mean I doubt it would get Go back up But if it does if it happens to go back the way of the underdog I'd be looking to K-State but at five and a half. This is gonna stay away from me and purely because of the line move Yeah, and I think it makes sense to you especially with seven being such a key number I mean less so in college than the NFL But like that's a big number to move off of and that does make a massive difference there for K-State in Oklahoma State So those are the marquee matches, but as you said Pamela, you know Your main focus is on these lesser games games that may not have the full attention to the sports book So where are you seeing some value on the board this week across college football? The only game that I have highlighted that I really do like is Liberty minus six at Syracuse I typically don't like to take favorites, but sometimes it makes sense I'm an underdog better by heart, but sometimes taking the favorite does make sense and Syracuse They have one of the worst offensive lines in all of college football. They've allowed seven total sacks It's coming over from every year. They have a terrible offensive line this year is no different They have two quarterbacks and combined They have just two touchdowns and three interceptions So that's always something that you want to consider if you're a fading a fading an underdog and the flames They have the fourth best pass rush this year. They have already 10 sacks Cumulated by the defense 11 interceptions and Syracuse has just one player with over 100 rushing yards And that's running back Sean Tucker who accounts for six out of 10 rushing scores So you have one player that you can that the defense really has to focus on because they don't have a Quarterback that can do anything and Liberty they definitely have the better quarterback They have the better run game and Liberty. I mean quarterback Malik Willis. Have you seen him? He's so good He's so good. He's so fun to watch. He has seven touchdowns zero interceptions He leads the team in rushing yards, but they do also have two other running backs that have a hundred yards of rushing or more I think that the Liberty claims here can definitely cover the six and win by double digits Malik will has got a lot offseason buzz with regards to the NFL draft stuff at for entering this year So Will is a guy that the pro scouts are in on and Pamela is in on him as well That is Pamela Maldonado Make sure you check her out on Twitter at Pamela M 35 make sure check it out check her out on Yahoo as well Pamela We appreciate the time. Oh so much. Good luck to you not just with College football this week But also on the NFL side of things and hopefully we will talk to you here once again soon Yeah, absolutely. Thanks for having me guys Covering the future Big thank you once again to Pamela Maldonado for swinging by and breaking down a week number four of college football Giving your thoughts on some marquee games and then we talked to Pamela about Notre Dame versus Wisconsin That game is that soldier field? I think I was there the last time Notre Dame was that soldier field I don't know if that was the Miami game or not I'm not sure if that was the last one, but I was there for that one I wore a Northwestern hoodie for some reason because why not I had no other wardrobe functions. I could possibly wear so field Yeah, exactly. Why not you're you're you and your hoodie. I know just just me I was there with Notre Dame fan at least so it wasn't totally like random, but it was a had a good time So we'll see how that goes for this week. You've got thoughts in that game too again It is now Wisconsin minus six and a half. How are you viewing that game? Yeah, I mean, I I mean I like Wisconsin here coming into the season I had Notre Dame as one of my overrated teams this was on the preview series of the football analytics show and You know Notre Dame's had a ton of success making two college football playoffs in over the last three seasons but unlike most teams they lost a ton of talent on both sides of the ball including Quarterback in book and so now they have Jack Cohen who transferred from Wisconsin and we have this nice narrative and You know cone was pretty solid in the first two games, but kind of struggle against Purdue They had a 25 percent passing success rate in that game Which is significantly less than the college football average of 39 and a half So Notre Dame took advantage of three long touchdown plays Kind of these explosive plays are not really something that you can rely on in college football some analysis that Bill Connelly did and The game could have been a lot closer You know Notre Dame ended up winning by two touchdowns, but by the underlying metrics It was a much closer game so So far, you know my my system of adjusting Notre Dame and my prediction system has kind of has adjusted Notre Dame down Almost four points from where they were in the preseason So it would agree with this idea that they were they were kind of overrated in the preseason You know, it's constant on the other hand. They started with a home loss to Penn State but They did have more yards and they had a better success rate in that game and you know His grandma's ended up throwing two interceptions late as they try to mount a comeback Penn State ended up winning 16 to 10 You know, I my numbers like Wisconsin by eight. I do see value in this game Preston Johnson professional sports better. He's been fading Notre Dame the entire season I think he's seeing a lot of the same things that my number C and downgrading them I got this at five and a half yesterday. I still think there's a little bit of value at six and a half Probably not so much if it gets any higher, but I think I think Wisconsin gets this done on the neutral site and Yeah, that's what I'm going with. So your numbers of eight What would your numbers say if it weren't a Jack Cohn revenge game? Would it be like Wisconsin by like 30 at that point because I feel like the revenge game's got to be worth like at least 15 against the spread No, I know I don't I don't really think the revenge game. I mean, I mean, who knows what the narrative is behind that I mean, hey to Rod Taylor all he almost got the Texans a victory last week against Cleveland And if you don't believe in the power of the revenge game, I can't help you man That's that's what we got here. All right. So you're betting Notre Dame Absolutely not. No, I can't touch college right now I've had been laser focused on the NFL. So I've got nothing there, but I think that A point and a half is still enough where I can see some some value there But just kind of make sure you shop around try to identify the best number there I Think that the Wisconsin Michigan game next week should be pretty fun So looking forward to talking more college football as we go along here. Are you fully caught up now? Because I know that it was kind of a rough process earlier on if you had time to To get fully, you know, like caught up and then get some sleep or is it still working process here? It's still definitely a working process on the college and The rank of a matrix didn't really want to be what it was supposed to be So I had some issues with the adjusted success rates this week So, yeah, you know, we're getting there. I think once I have the success rate adjusted for opponent Either later this week or early next week I will feel ready to to really talk about it and and it's probably fine just because You know, three games is not really a lot to go on. So I'll feel more comfortable When we have, you know, when we get the five six games Then you can probably start making some conclusions from that and we get to some bigger games coming up, too Because this week is kind of a weird slate as well So looking forward to more college football discussion going forward My cover in the future for today is gonna be an NFL one We'll get two NFL ones this week one today one tomorrow and I want to get the Packers at plus three and a half Against the 49ers. It's a three and a half right now, and I'm not sure it'll stick at three and a half So I wanted to talk about that one today as my first bet for this week And I get why things are so high for the 49ers because they've looked great the first two weeks But it's important to keep in mind that their first two games were against the Lions who are you know, your your favorite dumpster fire Ed and then the Eagles not sure how much of that is You know, how much that week one win is predictive going for those two teams ranked 30th and 24th my power rankings right now The Packers are not they're ranked seventh right in line for the 49ers up and fifth So my numbers respect the 49ers a lot both based on my priors and based on what they've done so far But I still respect the Packers a lot, too the Packers main weakness as a team has always been stopping the run and that had typically be frightening against a Kyle Shanahan team But they are super banged up right now where he mostered out for the year to Michael hasty is out trace Sermon is on the wrong side of questionable Eli Mitchell may play But he heard his shoulder as well and that showed the defense be less of a train wreck as it was in that NSE championship game a couple years ago where the 49ers ran for like 1,600 yards in that game and I do think the Packers offense can do well here, too The 49ers corners are a weak point for sure Elton Jenkins is playing left tackle in place of David Bakhti Ari's look pretty good over there. I think he should be able to hold up against a pretty solid defensive line So my numbers are the Packers or the 49ers favored by 1.4 points here So I'll think the Packers plus three and a half getting the three there. I think that does help And I feel good about them in this spot and you run the Packers last week We'll talk more about that and covering the past for tomorrow But I still feel like that week one stink is here And it makes sense because like they didn't play great in the first half of yes of last week's game either But I think three and a half to me is a bit surprising Given how high we were on the Packers coming into the year. Yeah, it is a little bit surprising I would have made this pretty much essentially a push in the preseason The system, you know, my system moved pretty hard against Green Bay after that that first week loss So it's definitely on the side of San Francisco I think the other thing that you want to consider here is that San Francisco doesn't have their top two cornerbacks And you saw Jalen Hertz going after that last week in that football game with with a little bit of success and Yeah, it's just it's really hard when you when you don't have your top cover guys back there So I think that's another situation that plays into this game And I kind of don't know what to think about Green Bay's defense Like I feel like they have the tools in the secondary, but they're really not stopping teams I gotta think that gets better, but we haven't seen it yet. Yeah, we have not and It is concerning because Jimmy Garoppolo has his faults, but he can he can quarterback an efficient offense It's not may not because of him but it does happen like his offenses tend to be efficient and That's concerning. We saw Jared golf move the football against them in the first half before the game script got out of control on Monday night and we but I think the good thing here is we saw the Packers offense exploit a weakness on the lions When their cornerbacks went down. So I do think yeah, I mean like, you know Different situation for sure But I think that they should be able to move the football here So I feel pretty good about the the Packers in this spot at plus three and a half Ed could you catch a pass in the Lions secondary right now? Yeah, I could you know speed what you've got the speed that helps No, it's interesting You know, they got a couple of young kids But that AJ Parker kid is grading out pretty well with PFF So I kind of joked around that, you know using Jeffrey Akuta might result in an upgrade According to PFF so far that's happened. Obviously. They got some other issues back there right now as well, right? With some additional injuries But yeah, we'll get into that more tomorrow. We certainly will we'll talk about that tomorrow We have our NFL show with aero aero Epstein will preview week number three there But that is all that we have for today on the college football edition of covering the spread once again A big thank you to Pamela Maldonado check her out on Twitter at Pamela M 35 and check out all of her work over at Yahoo a link to her writer profile is up in the episode description up on number fire comm check out all of her work Over there and what is going on for you this week over at the Power Inc? Yeah So members of the Power Inc get access to all of my best predictions both college and the NFL Well when I look at the air from my college football predictions Compared to the markets. They've actually there's been a smaller air so far this season. It was pretty strong week three So hoping to continue that this is the new model that I developed last year out of necessity and it seems this updating system seems to be more aggressive in Changing teams we talked about Michigan how they're up to 10th already. That's not aggressive as Bill Connolly, but So, yeah, it's a system that that I'm pretty excited about right now so you can get all my college football predictions So check that out. You can check out more about becoming a member at the power rank dot net All right the power rank net to become a member over there follow add on to her at the power rank I am at Jim Sonnis J. I am s a n n e s You can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast once again We are back on Thursday to break down NFL week number three with Ariel Epstein if you want to check her out tonight as well She's on girls who bet with Erin Kate Dolan and Olivia Moody couple people. We've had on the podcast here before So all them in one place night 830 on the fan dual YouTube page to break down week number three in the NFL more on that Coming up tomorrow. We'll talk to you then this has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network What's up guys? This is Jordan Spieth. If you're watching this video Please like and subscribe to the fan dual YouTube channel