 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network What's going on and welcome to covering the spread my name is Tom Vecchio with MLB opening day this Thursday I'm here to break down some season-long bets as always This is one of the many shows on the Fandall podcast network You can find that anywhere whether it's Apple podcast whether it's Spotify Make sure to give it a like follow or subscribe the video version we found on Fandall TV plus and Fandall comm slash watching find it up on Fandall YouTube page You can find the article up on Fandall comm slash research Before we hop into things say goodbye to a busted brackets because Fandall lets you bet on every game of the tournament Whether you're betting on a big upset or the number one seat It's time to go dancing on America's number one sports book right now new customers get $200 in bonus bets If your first $5 bet wins, that's 200 bucks to use on point spreads money lines You can even pick who's gonna win it all Just visit Fandall comm and bet on college troops until they cut down the nets Must be 21 plus and present in select states Fandall's offering online sports wagering in Kansas under agreement Kansas Tarkasino LLC first online real money wager only $10 first deposit required bonus issued as non withdrawable bonus bets that expire 70s After a CC term that sports book that Fandall comm gambling problem call 100 gambler or visit Fandall comm slash RG in Colorado Iowa Michigan, New Jersey Ohio, Pennsylvania, Illinois Kentucky, Tennessee, Virginia, North Carolina or Vermont call 100 next step Or text next step to 5334 to an Arizona call 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat Connecticut call 109 with it in Indiana call 1-800-524-7000 or visit KS gambling help.com in Kansas call 1-877-770 Stop in Louisiana This is MD gambling help.org in Maryland visit 100 gambler.net in West Virginia or call 1-800-524-700 in Wyoming Hope is here visit gambling helpline MA.org or call 800-327-5050 424-7 to Portland, Massachusetts or call 1-877-8 open market text hope and why in New York Alright, I am here to break down MLB opening day or not opening day I should say MLB for season long bets as Jim mentioned at the end of last week I will be here today on Monday Austin Swain will be with you tomorrow I will be back on Wednesday to talk more MLB Jim will be back on Thursday So we're here to talk about specifically season long bets nothing to do with the actual opening day games. There are Four bets that I really like this season. We'll get into them if you were here last year for this exact show Jim was hosting. I was a guest last year My my big take for the pod last year was Matt Olson at 28 to 1 to lead the league in home runs and After 162 games that came to fruition a really nice winner. It's a season-long bet We have to understand what these season-long bets league leader bets what they mean Really high odds low and low imply Probability, but it gives you some you know some action throughout the season You can find different ways to hedge out of it. Whatever it might be. So when it comes to the home run market this year I guess I should note on it just because I you know hit the league leader last year with Matt Olson When it comes to the odds this year, there are Very very few spots that I like I spoke about Ronald Acuna briefly on some other shows. He was at 19 to 1 Currently on the Fandals sports book. He's at 14 to 1 I will always say shop for the best lines available as Jim continuously mentions I will do the same you can find Ronald Acuna and 19 to 1 across the industry to lead the league in home runs That's the lowest number that I would look for a player right now If you were to ask me who do I think leads the league in home runs this year It was just simply just a prediction right and there were no betting odds attached. My answer would be Pita Lonzo However, I don't have interest in Pita Lonzo at 8 to 1 Now if someone else gets well, you know couple players go off to a super hot start and Pita Lonzo falls back and we can get Pita Lonzo at 14 to 1 15 to 1 12 to 1 somewhere around there That's where I'll be looking to jump in on Pita Lonzo But right now at a plus 800 I have no interest in that number no interest in judge Like I said the first player that I'll I'll be looking to would be Ronald Acuna Now I don't mind taking some shots on maybe a longer shot like Julio Rodriguez at 40 to 1 that is certainly fine But Acuna is probably my favorite the combination of his probabilities to actually do it in his overall skill set Combined with the odds actually having to be good and that's what we do get with Acuna again shot for the best lines available So let's get into my favorite season-long league leader bet this season and it is going to be Bobby Witt jr. At 18 to 1 to lead the league in hits Bobby Witt is obviously fantastic player and there's plenty to back this up I will say from the jump any stats that I Reference are either from fan graphs or baseball savants. I also don't do any my own projections We can find projections on fan graphs that people that do these projections are obviously fantastic We can look at the projections. We can see where he stands all these sorts of things So at 18 to 1 Bobby Witt to lead the league in hits that is a 5.3 implied probability very low We have to take all this into consideration When we look at Bobby Witt in his actual production from last year, he had a 17.4 percent striker rate, which is great He had a 2 18 ISO which is obviously strong. We're not here for an aesthetic power But that is obviously good to see He had a 295 bad with which is batting average of balls and play and when we look at his Some of his underlying stats between his ex Woba ex batting average and ex slugging They were all in the 91st percentile or higher and when we flip to his baseball savante page It's as red as can possibly be now the chase rate is a little bit low We'd like to see that improve But the point being is Bobby Witt is a fantastic player. So when we look back to last year Bobby Witt had 177 hits when we look to some of his projections for this year again on fan graphs not doing any of my own projections He's right around that same mark whether we're looking at Steamer or zips or the bat or whatever might be they all have him at that same mark about 170 Maybe a little bit higher when we look at the season-long projections for Bobby Witt in terms of the overall leaderboards The projections have him at about fifth sixth seventh in some spots depending on You know what specific projection we're looking at so Bobby Witt is a top five player when it comes to projected hits His stats should be on the rise this year in terms of his projection in terms of his chase rate He has a very strong strike area in terms of it being low. He's not wasting chances at the play He's putting the ball in play. He has enough power He's gonna be at the top of the Royals lineup and while they may not be the best off offense overall He's going to have plenty of played appearances to put him in a good spot for hits So when we're looking at his odds and we see him Realistically where it should be as I said projected for the sixth seventh hits Maybe the fifth most hits at 18 to one. I like where he sits compared to some of the other players I don't have interest in Ronald Acuna. I don't have interest in Luisa rise Freddie Freeman we can maybe make the case for his odds were a little bit longer same thing with Boba Shet If you can get Boba Shet up at 15 to one I have a ton of interest there, but he's sitting at 10 to 1 right now So Bobby Whit brings the combination of odds and probability that I do like backed by very strong projections So Bobby Whit at 18 to 1 to lead the league in hits That is the first part Next up there are three Player season oh a total over unders that I like one hitter and Then two pitchers and for the hitter we can maybe look at his Odds to lead the league in home runs. So let's start with the hitter. It's a little bit more exciting for home runs Adolis Garcia over 31 and a half home runs this season sitting a minus 113 His odds to lead the league in home runs. I believe are sitting at 40 to 1 Let's double check quickly for yes 41 for Adolis Garcia if I like him to go over 31 and a half I have a slight interest in him to lead the league in home runs as well Understand what that probability is though. So over 31 and a half when we look at Adolis Garcia over the past few seasons He's ended with 31 27 and 39 home runs last year. He has tremendous power a 212 iso a 207 iso and a 263 iso Over the last few seasons the issue with Adolis Garcia are the strikeouts He swings and misses a lot, but man when he makes contact. He has a ton of power So this is a player that can have a higher range of outcomes and much of what much of that can be shown on his baseball savante page where The power the exit velocity the barrel rate the hard hit rate are Fantastic, but the strikeouts are there the strikeouts are certainly there for Adolis Garcia So if we look at the potential upside for Adolis Garcia, it's him pushing towards 40 home runs I don't expect him to fall, you know massively below the 31 and a half number If he's gonna be anywhere It's me right at that number and he's gonna miss it by one or two. He's not gonna end the season with 17 home runs That's just not the type of hitter that he is So yes, I want to bank on a player's theoretical upside rather than looking at a floor outcome for them We want to bank on the ceiling outcome for them and that is Adolis Garcia again backed by strong projections Getting right to this number sitting at 31 sitting at 32. Maybe even getting up to the mid 30s So if he can stay healthy and play of high volume of games surrounded by a fantastic line up with Texas He's always going to be in a good spot to hit and that's one of the things I said about Matt Olson last year is Kind of along the same lines as Adolis Garcia when I specifically said it about Matt Olson last year It's like when Ronald de Cuny is on base and Austin Riley is on base and then Matt Olson is up and Sean Murphy is behind them and Ozzy Alves is there. You can't pitch around Matt Olson He has to see good pitches. That's largely the same for Adolis Garcia when they have a loaded lineup They can't just put pitches out there and let Adolis Garcia on base for free because there's gonna be some other power hitter coming up behind him So I like Adolis Garcia and his upside over 31 and a half home runs this season And again, if you want to take a small Sprinkle on him to lead the league in home runs You can do that as well now to Season-long strikeout props for pitchers and when it comes to pitchers, I generally air on the side of caution and Generally that means taking some unders and when it comes to taking unders on pitchers season-long There's obviously a lot that can go wrong for pitchers Missing a start here or there can really throw off their projections in a big way Missing any significant amount of time if you take the under a pitcher missing any significant amount of time puts you in a great spot You know, we don't want to root for injuries But injuries are just a thing when it comes to pitchers and a lot of teams are very very cautious when it comes to their pitchers and I also think as we get to the end portions of the season It does allow you to hedge out in a certain way where a player is approaching their season-long prop You can look to them when they start games and you can look to take an over on their strikeouts and potentially You know make back some of the initial bet So let's go to two pitchers It's going to be both unders for their season-long strikeouts And that's starting off with nester Cortez for the new york Yankees under 139 and a half strikeouts again minus 113 When we look to nester Cortez he obviously missed a significant amount of time last year you're only pitch 63.1 innings The year before that he pitched 158.1 The year before that he was at 93 his k per 9 and a strikeout radar nearly identical over this Three-year sample size. He was up at 27.5 strikeout rate 26.5 and last year is at 25.2 So the lowest of the three years was last year Also from the smallest sample size last year. He also struggled with home runs Last year we also saw the highest walk rate from nester cortez up at 7.5 and while 7.7 7.5 is not a bad walk rate It just was the highest that he's posted of the three main years that he's been in the league not compared to You know prior when he was with a handful of teams not pitching a large sample size He's not a dominant strikeout pitcher is what it comes down to he's a league average strikeout pitcher slightly above league average He can pile up the strikeouts when the matchup allows it But he's not routinely going to be going out there pushing towards 8 9 10 strikeouts on a game by game basis start by start basis He's going to be around 5 6 maybe 7 strikeouts To start spring training. He has a 23.5 strikeout rate and again comes from a very small 14 innings sample size It is an indication. We can't use it as a set in stone because the sample size is so small When we're looking at the Yankees overall I'm trying to take in a consideration where their team and their pitching staff is combined with nester cortez who did again Struggle to stay healthy last year considering Garrett Cole is already injured to start the season whatever status may be I'm under the assumption that the Yankees are going to play things a little bit safer this year when it comes to Pitchers if they have to force a pitcher to miss any pitcher rogdon or cortez or anyone to miss an extra start They'd rather do that then push them out. They're considering their pitching staff isn't already at full health So when it comes to nester cortez And we're seeing 63 innings last year and 67 strikeouts and 158 innings and 163 strikeouts And 93 innings and 103 strikeouts over the past three years three seasons with the Yankees He has to be out there in order to obviously rack up the strikeouts And considering where his health has been and the Yankees pitching staff overall I'm playing this a little bit cautious, you know, we'd expect a seal we would need not expect We would need a sealing season from nester cortez with 130 innings minimum In order for him to get to 130 or 140 strikeouts in order to hit the over So i'm playing things a little bit safer And again it gets to the end of the season and staying fully healthy. We can obviously look to hedge out of this as well Let's go to the final pitcher For another under on a strikeout prop and that's going to be zack gallin under 192 and a half strikeouts sitting at minus 113 I think zack gallin is a fantastic pitcher. He really is he's truly one of the best in the national league However, I think this projection is just a touch high and it's Based off of what we've seen from him the past two seasons, which were granted great seasons We just have to look at that in full context and Look at it in terms of will he be able to repeat those performances So last year 210 innings pitched 220 strikeouts He had a 26 strikeout rate overall in 2022 We saw 184 innings from him and 192 strikeouts and he had a 26.9 strikeout rate The year before that he had 121 innings and 139 strikeouts With a 26.6 strikeout rate. So we have seen his strikeout rate trend slightly down Last year 26 when it was about 26.9 and 26.6 His innings are strong. He has been healthy. However, however, we always want to look at was a potential floor outcome for these pitchers And that floor outcome for zack gallin would be his strikeout rate continuing to decline getting toward 25.2 25.3 His innings are scaled back slightly and instead of hitting over 200 again this year He sits at 190 195 and that means he we need to be exactly Efficient as he was last year this year in order to hit 193 strikeouts So zack gallin while he's fantastic last year Was a ceiling year for him with 210 innings pitched and 220 strikeouts So if his strikeout rate continues to decline And his innings are scaled back ever so slightly this year It's going to be razor thin for him to hit the over now I think he's a fantastic real life pitcher and it you know, obviously a player anyone anyone would want on our team He's great with limiting home runs. He's great at inducing ground balls. He's great at limiting the hard contact, but Those strikeouts could be on a decline this year. And again, we'll look at his spring training numbers, which is a very small 13 innings sample size He has a 14.3 strikeout rate and an 11.1 walk rate So strikeout rate, which is obviously nowhere near where he was in the past few seasons His walk rate is at 11. It was at 5.6 last year 5.6 is fantastic Again, a super small sample size But are we using that as an indication where maybe he starts the year super slow And if he starts the year slow on strikeouts, he may eventually return to the form he was at last year But that projection is going to be uh, you know Trailing from behind if he does start the year slow because he's not racking them up at the same rate So again, I always like to play things a little bit safer when it comes to pitchers And again, if we get to the end of the year in august september and he's at 280 some odd innings And he's sitting here at 180 strikeouts. Yeah, we can look to take some overs on him on a start by star basis And then we make back our initial bet and we come out net even So that's what I like to do when it comes to pitchers side on the side of caution There's just so much that can go wrong for a pitcher In a season missing one or two starts can throw off his projection by 12 13 strikeouts and then we'd be cruising to an under So when it comes to the lead league league leader market in strikeouts Spencer strider is by far the favorite There's not many players that can compete with him when it comes to his strikeout rate overall Kevin gossman is there for me the fact but kevin gossman isn't healthy Right, uh, I believe he's going to miss the opening day start. So I'm a little bit hesitant on kevin gossman Pablo Lopez, Tyler glass now hunter green in this range. I think they're all fine Dylan cease again is good The walks the walks and home runs are always an issue for Dylan cease Corbin burns is the player I'm going to have the most interest in if we see that number get a little bit longer If we can if we see Corbin burns at 17 to 1 that's something I would take some shares of He is one of the favorites to win the al sayang now at the Orioles al sayang So I will have some interest in Corbin burns if we can find A live number once the season starts around 15 or 17 to 1 to lead the league in strikeouts So that does it for today's podcast. We have bobby wick to lead the league in hits at 18 to 1 Really like the projection for him this year like him obviously going forward throughout his career Adolas Garcia over 31 and a half home runs immense power Yes, the strikeouts can be an issue for Garcia, but the power and realistically the lineup around him are both fantastic and then when it comes to strikeouts nester cortez for the new york Yankees under 139 and a half strikeouts and then zack gallon for the diamondbacks under 192 and a half strikeouts So that does it for today's podcast austin swain will be here with you tomorrow I will be back on wednesday gym will be back on thursday and we will keep things rolling as a reminder This is one of the many shows on the faddle podcast network You can find that anywhere whether it's apple podcast or that spotify make sure to give it a like follow or subscribe Leave a review that be greatly appreciated. You can follow me on twitter at tom underscore vecchio one until next time Good luck with your bets