 Hello everyone. Welcome to another capsule on international relations for the Shankar IAS Academy. Today we discuss the change of government in Germany which took place last week. This was a historic change because it marks the end of a 16-year tenure of Angela Merkel. Her rise was very surprising because she grew up in East Germany and when East Germany and West Germany were united very few of the political leaders of East Germany were taken into higher positions. She joined as a junior minister in the cabinet and she was in charge of environment and therefore she chaired the first conference of parties to the framework Convention on Climate Change in Berlin in 1995. I had the opportunity to work with her at that time as the leader of the G77 delegation. She was an inexperienced, very keen, anxious person at that time many years ago but she handled that conference so effectively that she made a big name of it. It was a difficult conference but she worked more behind the scenes with all of us individually and collectively and came up with some kind of a magic formula that satisfied all of us and that was her first foray into foreign affairs. At that time none of us expected that she would be Chancellor one day but she turned out to be one of the best chancellors in German history and also a record period of 16 years. So the change is remarkable. As usual, it is a coalition government which has come into place and therefore the present Chancellor was already in her cabinet representing his political party that the Social Democrats. Angela Merkel belonged to what is called the Christian Democratic Party and Christian Democratic Party is not in the new coalition but some ministers including Mr. Olaf Scholz who is the new Chancellor were in the cabinet of Angela Merkel. So there is a certain amount of continuity but the composition of the coalition is very interesting in the cabinet because most balanced, gender balanced cabinets with eight men and eight women was excluding the Chancellor. The Social Democrats have seven ministers. The Greens, a party which has been growing very fast in Germany and northern countries in the last decade, have five ministers which is a very significant development including the Greens candidate for Chancellor, a lady who has now become the foreign minister. And the green representation in the cabinet is quite significant and since they are newcomers and they have a rather new agenda, it is significant and the people will observe how they influence policies of the German government in the future. As I said, Chancellor Olaf Scholz was in the cabinet of Angela Merkel and many ways he is supposed to be somewhat like her in the sense that he is very cool and unruffled not given to any kind of sentimental outbursts and so he has got the nickname of a hamburger which does not show any feelings and he also has a nickname called Scholz or Matt because his style is very robotic in the sense that he is very specific and very clear and so on and he has yet another nickname, Teflon Scholz like Teflon Clinton people used to say because no scandal, no rumors stick to him. It's like Teflon, it just gets reflected on. So generally he has a good reputation and there is much expectation that he will be a successful Chancellor. He was actually Finance Minister in the Merkel cabinet. Of course, he comes to power at a very critical time in the history of the world and also the history of Germany because many changes are taking place in Europe and of course the most important problem that he will have to face as like any other head of state anywhere in the world this year is of course the coronavirus the next wave which has already gripped Germany and no one knows what the extent of this would be whether it would be as Deva stating as the last one. Of course there are suggestions that the new variant is not particularly lethal but it is going to be very infectious more than the Delta variant and Germany has very serious problems relating to this and the whole question of lockdown or not lockdown, vaccination or no vaccination all these issues trace Germany as much as it does in other countries. The next issue is of course climate change after the Glasgow meeting there is a new approach to climate change and Germany is very much part of it particularly because the Greens are in the government we can expect the German government to be particularly attentive to the climate change issue and they may be even willing to make some sacrifices which developing countries have been asking developed countries to do in terms of financing in terms of changing their lifestyles and so in these matters we can expect the Scholz government to be more keen and more enthusiastic so climate change will occupy considerable amount of time and attention of the new chancellor. Then the inflation in Germany is rising because like any other country then Putin is Russia no flexing his muscles in Ukraine making a challenge to European Union as well as NATO and is in fact threatening to invade Ukraine if Ukraine is admitted to NATO so and of course Residency is China again flexing muscles all over but both these countries are considered to be adversaries not friends at the same time Germany has a lot of involvement with both these countries traditionally and recently as well as the Americans are concerned the main question is the expectation raised by President Putin that the Europeans must get more involved in NATO or involved not only strategically but also financially President Trump had actually asked that NATO should pay much more into NATO members should pay much more contribution to NATO why should the United States pay for it etc but that is with the new government in the United States with President Biden that may have been relaxed. Then the whole question of writing right wing extremism and some incidents of terrorism and these are all very significant issues so Chancellor Schultz has a very full plate before him but because of his experience and the comparatively relaxed manner in which he negotiated what is called the coalition preaching among the three countries that gives reason for hope and also expectation that it will do well. The coalition is called the traffic light coalition different kinds of coalitions have taken place in Germany like the rainbow coalition where every party is there different kinds of coalition and this time because of these three parties with three colors it is called the traffic light coalition the social democrats are red in color free democrats are yellow and of course the greens are green social democrats agenda is to have a fair society is that slogan fair to the society equitable distribution of wealth of course capitalistic approach and the free democrats are more business and industry oriented and the greens of course are environment oriented mostly so as I said climate change will be a priority and Germany is under pressure to face out coal because Germany still uses coal for its energy production because India has a much bigger involvement in coal we have not been very keen to face it out in Glasgow we accepted a phase down not a phase out but Chancellor Schultz has given an indication that he will face out coal their involvement is not as much but in principle they have agreed to that which is a major concession and also he has said that 80 percent of the energy generated in the future in Germany will be renewables in other words they will reduce their dependence on fossil fuels including coal and he has also said that 15 million electric vehicles will be introduced in Germany in the next few years so on that the policy is quite clear Germany will be as loyal to the present government will be as loyal to NATO and to European Union and European Union Germany has now a higher position because Britain has exited European Union and therefore Germany is probably the most important member of the European Union followed by France and other countries and international politics we expect tougher response to Russia and China China had entered into several agreements with Germany at some stage but the reports show that they are not progressing very much and Germany is not giving that much importance to collaboration with China even though at one stage it appeared as though China was getting a foothold in Germany as far as China is concerned the coalition treaty that is the agreement signed between all these three parties talks in terms of human rights abuses in China which of course is common for all the European Union countries they're all very particular about human rights but here in the agreement relating to the coalition itself they have indicated that they're very concerned about human rights abuses in China they have in my opinion more than any other place and also they have a specific point of Hong Kong as you know has together with China one nation two systems and Germany is in favor of Hong Kong retaining its capitalist system then getting too much involved with the Chinese system which they are they are also supposed to follow and so there is a point which can be problematic with China and the second of course is Taiwan Germany like all of the major countries believe in one China policy in the sense that it's only people's republic of China which is China and Taiwan is not considered totally independent but at the same time like the United States and like us they all deal with China they will deal with Taiwan and any effort at altering the the status of Taiwan by China will not be accepted and more than Angela Merkel's roles will be close to President Biden and United States in general because he has been softer to the United States while after the first meeting Angela Merkel had some problem with President Trump so the important thing will be for the three parties to work jointly because they all have different positions and visions on various aspects of governance so that'll be the biggest challenge for Chancellor Assault because he like to keep these leaders of the other two parties close to him and both those parties had candidates for chancellorship so they were his rivals in the sense but that is what happens in Germany after the elections once the number of parties number of seats each party wins they work out a coalition sometimes it takes very long but this time it did not take that long and so I think it is sounds good that it'll be definitely smooth sailing in the German government which is good news for all and particularly for India India has had a very good relations with Angela Merkel and many institutions were established for consultations she has visited India and also she had a soft corner because of her old East German association you know the days when we were friendly with Soviet Union the German Republic East Germany was fairly friendly to us and therefore she has carried that sentiment into Germany and therefore she has had a soft corner for India and I have sensed it when I dealt with her in 1995 so what we have to look at is what would be the post-Markel chapter in India German ties will be like we have reason to be optimistic because as I said earlier Germany government the government that is in your metal government had included the Chancellor Holtz's party and therefore he is party to all the agreements and strategy cooperation that Germany has entered into China but the Green Party is rather new to India and it's a lady who is the leader of the Green Party has become the foreign minister the first lady foreign minister Germany and she may have her own ideas but at the same time there is no reason that she would be different but we will have to engage her and engage her party very quickly so that we can get our relations on sound footing and continuity has to be ensured and also extension of the relationship because the in the new changed world where equations are shifting and European Union will suddenly remain as one of the poles of the world and maybe soon after US and Russia and therefore we'll have much to do with Germany and we'll have to quickly deal with the new administration get accustomed to their style and also their policies but there's nothing which appears to be in contradiction with Indian policy in major matters including on Russia and China which very strong views here we have good news in the sense that in the coalition treaty which I referred to where they have mentioned problem countries like Russia and China India has been mentioned as a strategic partner even as the government is taking over they have reiterated that India will continue to be a major strategic partner as I said Greens and DP that is a chancellor's not chancellor's party but the third member of the coalition have had no interaction with India and we will have to make sure that the Merkel initiatives and also to have regular consultations with between Germany and foreign offices will quickly be resumed I would imagine particularly after the preoccupation with the pandemic finishes because at this moment everybody is preoccupied with the expected next wave of the new variant again one area where India and Germany seem to agree is on the question of Indo-Pacific of course they are not part of the quad but the policy guidelines on Indo-Pacific have been welcomed by the new new coalition and India is credited for enhancement of engagement because of the Indo-Pacific and their suspicion of China and so that'll be a positive factor unlike Russia which has a problem with even the name Indo-Pacific Germany has no such a problem then the whole friendship and cooperation that has existed between European Union and India in every respect we have worked together was in the past the dealings with the European Union the UK used to take the lead when it came to matters of India EU relations and that used to create some problems of us when I was in Austria I discovered that the UK view of India Pakistan Kashmir etc were not particularly acceptable to us there were some weaknesses in that because of their old colonial handups and that used to be to permeate into EU positions so very often we have to correct that but now that European Union does not have UK in it European Union will probably have a better opportunity to look at India without using the British glasses or British prism and that in fact I have been writing that that is part of the side benefits of UK leaving the European Union because European Union's positions on India will not be coloured by any prejudice that UK may have of course UK has very good relations and now as a separate country they are negotiating with us trade deals and other relationships the prime ministers have been friendly to each other and there's no reason for us to be anxious about UK but they're not being in the European Union may have disadvantages because they're not having expertise but at the same time some of these aberrations in the UK thinking that we had noticed in the European Union will now go and we had a slight break with the European Union and at the time of the Italian Mariner crisis we had even cancelled the meetings of the European Union with India but that is now resolved so European Union is very much in line with India's position on various issues and on the climate agenda and what Germany wants to accomplish India will be more of a partner rather than a rival in any respect of course the developed country developing country divide will always be there because we want to demand that developed countries would change their lifestyles they should provide resources and there should be more time to developing countries to adopt environment friendly technology so all these differences may be there in approaches but since Germany has taken a more enlightened position of wanting to shift from coal shift to electrical cars etc that means they are not clinging on to their old fuel based economy so in this particularly in the international solar alliance which India is leading Germany will play a major part and in also the smart cities that the plan of the climate change agenda all these will be beneficial to us and so Indian expectation or from the ministry of economy and energy will be very significant and trade of course and railway infrastructure green railway infrastructure we are building that is an area where India has considerable expertise and knowledge and so certainly Germany might look up to India to provide some expertise maybe some equipment etc and so there are these openings so in other words it's a historic change and Germany might change in different ways in style after Angela Merkel but Chancellor Holtz is supposed to be of the same temperament as Angela Merkel and the positions that have come out of the treaty of the coalition and other signals indicate that this will be a welcome development for India except for the involvement of the Greens you know they are against nuclear power etc so those may create some problems but I think there'll be more complementary complexities than complexity in the relationship and the new government has already said that China's values are at variance with Germany and so that gives us a certain amount of leeway in explaining the Chinese challenge to the German government and we can probably expect positive response to our position and so more continuity and more institutional linkages more cooperation and more consultations is that we expect we as you know are we I mean very active in 2021, the external affairs minister has been traveling maybe the most traveled external affairs minister in recent history and also during the pandemic and I'm sure you'll find him one of these days in Berlin to have consultations so overall an optimistic picture for india-german relations thank you