 OK, it's 12.15. Thank you very much for attending today's weekly chatting analysis webinar with myself Jasper Lawler. I've got the risk warning on the screen here, so let's get through those first. If you have any questions at any point, just feel free to send it through the Q&A box or the chat window. If there's some specific instrument that you want to look at that maybe is something I wouldn't typically look at or some particular formation on the chart or event, happy to give my best answer possible. So there she blows, there's the CMC markets platform. So, good week this week in terms of economic events. First and foremost I would say, especially for those of us in the UK, we've got the Bank of England meeting on Thursday. Obviously the expectation now is that they're going to cut interest rates, which is quite the turnaround since for the best part two, three years they've been talking up the possibility of hiking rates. Now we're looking at a rate cut and an FYI just in terms of market option pricing, it's a hundred percent the market interpretation that they're going to cut rates. Obviously, markets pretty much positioned that way, so number one we've got to look at is obviously look at cable, but sterling against multiple currency pairs is going to be key. If we pull up the British pound here, obviously that's the immediate Brexit low, we made another low since and then in the process, in the time being since we've been trying to carve out a bit of a bottom pattern here. Now this kind of random little channel I've got on here is just a way of suggesting a potential inverse head and shoulders. So what we'd be looking at there is the left shoulder, the head, the right shoulder. So if we move above this trend line here, that to my mind would be a bottom pattern and suggest a decent move higher above 140, but we're obviously not there yet. We've pretty much been going sideways ahead of this decision. The other thing to think about here, if you're trading the pound, obviously direct implications there, but one of the reasons that we've had a good jump in the FTSE 100 and our proxy for the UK 100, we had this immediately post Brexit sell off obviously and then just ramped up in the days following, is that we had that big drop in the pound. So all these international companies on the FTSE 100 have been benefiting from that weak pound. So we probably can conclude that if the Bank of England does act and weaken the pound some more, that's probably going to be good for the UK 100. So we can see we're kind of running into kind of multiple layers of resistance at the moment. If I put out to the weekly chart and kind of see what we're running into, this was kind of the low that held up before we finally gave way after the general election and kind of dropped off big in the autumn last year. So we're right back at those levels. We're obviously at one year highs in the FTSE 100, stalled last week, but that's understandable because we've got this big decision from the Bank of England. So the trend is still very much up. We've broken out of this sideways range that we're in in the FTSE. And if the Bank of England cut rates, sterling drops, that's theoretically again a boost for these international companies. However, if they don't cut rates, you know, you could probably see a pretty big rebound in sterling because as I mentioned, a lot of people position for a cut. So that would suggest people short sterling, short pound against the dollar, and that's going to get unwound pretty quickly if they fail to deliver. And that could mean a bit of a big sell off in the FTSE 100 and probably some of the other indices as well. So if we flip over to US markets now, just pull up the US 30R proxy for the Dow Jones. Again, jump over to the weekly chart. You know, this is the record high from last year. We're obviously above that. And no real surprise. I mean, I highlighted this in last week's webinar that the obvious support after breaking the high would be the old high. So no surprise that that's where we bottomed last week. You can see it better in the daily chart. No less than on three separate days, we basically ran right into that previous record high from last year. That's the support at the moment. A lot of the, you know, earnings are coming ahead of expectations in the US at the moment. So that's part of the reason for the jump. But they're still down on the year. So you obviously got to conclude that some of the reason for these gains are expectations that central banks are going to do more. The Fed is on the sidelines. There's no expectation they'll do anything. The hope is they'll just stay doing nothing for a while. The Bank of Japan disappointed. The ECB is not doing any more at the moment, sort of signaled they've done as much as they can. So the Bank of England is one of the last banks, big banks, central banks expected to act. If the Bank of England fails to deliver, Bank of Japan kind of disappointed, didn't really do much. They just announced they'd be buying ETFs, more ETFs, slightly more ETFs, but not increasing their overall total of bond purchases. So disappointment, the Bank of England could spread beyond just cable and beyond just the UK 100. It could spread into the US 30 as well. And that would be potentially a reason this week to see that old record high taken out of support. Immediately below though, I would just call this kind of pre-Brexit high as the next obvious level of support. Because basically that's the level that we broke out to that kind of catalyzed that big move into record territory a couple of weeks ago. You'll notice though that in terms of that Brexit high, we're below there on the RSI. So that we had this one of 8th of June and then the 24th of June and we're below there on RSI. So if you believe that RSI is a leading indicator momentum wise, we could be setting up for a bigger dip down here in the US 30. Could that be Bank of England triggered? Perhaps. We obviously don't know yet, but a bit of kind of sideways loss of momentum at the moment. And that obviously makes sense because this has been quite a big run higher. I think this kind of general thinking here from me is that the trend is still higher. So it's very difficult to call the end of a trend. Better to keep going with it, but you've got to realize the higher this trend gets overextended, the kind of the lower your probabilities are of your trades coming off in the direction of the trend. It's going to kind of sharply unwind at some point, but we just can't quite picture where that. No particular evidence is happening yet. No big weekly reversal or anything. This is a bearish engulfing pattern on the weekly chart, but the prior week was so small that it would almost be difficult not to be an engulfing pattern with a small prior week. So that theoretically a bearish signal there, but as I said, you know, small volatility the prior week is debatable how strong that signal is. Now the other big event that we've got this week obviously is the non-farm payrolls. That's going to affect these dollar pairs as well. We've had a look at cable, but let's have a look at following the Bank of Japan last week. We had a big drop in the dollar, essentially a big jump in the yen. It's a dolly yen drop right down. This is a pretty clear cut trend here. In our previous webinars we'd highlighted this confluence of resistance because this was the 109 level basically. It was this downward-sleeping trend line and it was in the vicinity of this 50-day moving average, which has been working pretty well in terms of a resistance for this downtrend. It's been going on for a while now in dolly yen since the beginning of the year really. So if we pull out to the weekly chart, we can get a bit of extra context on this. That dotted line that I've got in there, that was a 38% fib of this whole entire up move. This whole kind of Bank of Japan easing inspired weakening of the yen. We've unwound 50% of that and we had a good jump off there, but that disappointment last week from the Bank of Japan has sent us right back down to the lows again and certainly increasing the odds that we take out that 50% level again. To my mind, the next logical area would be a bunch of support around these lows from 2013. It's also the 61.8% fib and actually that big decline. So that would be the level for me to be looking out for. 95-75 would be maybe call it 96 as a round number, as a possible target if we take out these lows. Even though the trend has been going on for a while, again it's that same principle that it's, you know, don't call the end of the trend until you can see it's happened. That said, obviously if we do get a drop down to this 100 level again, it's a pretty massive psychological figure. So depending on your, you know, your risk-taking style, of course that would be counter-trend to buy down there, but in terms of a risk reward, you know, there's minimal, you know, the risk is fairly limited because you know if you drop much below this spike low here, much below the 100 mark, then your trade is pretty much a scratch. But if you, you know, if it does come off, you know, you're really looking at a return to those highs at 107 again. So, you know, it's one of those scenarios where obviously the trend is against you, but still, you're risking baby 100 to gain 700. That's a favorable risk-reward ratio. You know, take enough of those, you know, you can win, you can lose several of those in a row and if you win one of them, you know, that's going to still put you well ahead. So to my mind, this trend is still downwards and, you know, certainly against the probability to be buying bits than in terms of a risk-reward ratio. We did get a run right back up to that previous swing, so it's not quite aggressively down as it was. The same as happened here. Got a pill up, pulled up to the old thing and it took a little while before we broke down again and now that's that's a significant level again. So I would argue that the sterling, sterling pairs particularly cable your pound against the dollar is going to be pretty influenced by the Bank of England because of the expectancy of a rate cut, but the other dollar pairs, you know, I'd argue maybe a bit more swayed by non-farm payrolls. The expectations about 180,000, so not really strong expectations. That's after 257 I think, last 287, the previous week. So, you know, expectations are for over 100,000 job drop in the month. So you could argue just expectations wise, there's a decent chance of exceeding those, those lowered expectations. So if the, you know, if non-farm payrolls does come ahead of expectations, that would be strong dollar and weak euro, weak yen. As we stand at the moment in euro dollar, we're right at resistance. So, you know, typically resistance being a place to sell. But what I would warn there is the momentum seems to have shifted. We've got this downsloping trend line. We broke above that at the same time that we broke above the 200 day moving average. So we're not in a trending environment. The 200 day moving average is pretty much flat. So just because we're above it doesn't mean we have to turn bullish. But it did happen at the same time as this declining trend line just happened. So possibly a bit of a shift taking place here. So if you are going short near the resistance, near 112, you know, got to be aware of that momentum fact. When we get a drop down to that trend line, there's a chance that some trade-offs will be buying into a retest of that trend line in expectation of a break of 112. So it's going to be obviously, you know, it never is, but it's going to be maybe a difficult ride taking it back down to 110 again. That's depending on the non-farm payrolls. If there is a big shock, you can obviously get a quick move one way or the other. But I think in the general scheme of things, you know, you can see if I pull out to the weekly chart, and I've been saying this for several weeks in a row, but really pretty choppy range bound conditions in the euro. We're in that same 105 to 115 range that we've been in for a while. It was difficult to pick out, you know, any kind of trend that's going to sustain more than just a week or so. You know, you really want to be on the kind of lower time frame charts for trying to get any trends in the euro at the moment. But it was bullish engulfing week last week. And it's got that momentum shift on the daily chart with the downed sloping trend line. So, you know, if you are going for the short-term trades, I would suggest maybe even though we are already into that resistance, on any kind of dips that you can and any kind of buying triggers that you can see in the short term, they could, you know, they look according to these indicators more likely to work than than any kind of cells that you might be looking to hold on to. So just let's just quickly cover euro sterling as well, because obviously Bank of England again, front and center, we've taken out this resistance, which was around the 8430 mark in euro sterling to me that's that's a positive was also formed a higher low. And so the break of this resistance formed a higher high as well. So short term, we've we've moved into sort of uptrend territory. But worth noting at the moment, we're just kind of clinging on to this resistance from the 61.8% fib of this decline from the highs. So if we can take out this level right where we are now, around the sort of 8490 sort of level and then obviously above 85, you know, then I think we're good to go for a retest of the highs, but we're just struggling at that at the moment. And then, you know, if you're looking for a shift in terms of bearish momentum, I think we're taking taking out this rising trend line, which coincides with a series of lows that we had here in late July, you know, I think that would probably be a message that actually we're going down for a test of the lows. And then possibly if I show if I pull out to the weekly chart here, a retest of this previous peak from April. So the kind of on from the weekly context, we had this we had a big jump off the lows that nonetheless, this is still a bearish engulfing weekly candlestick. And so we've basically retraced 61.8% of that bearish engulfing candlestick. So that 61.8% has a kind of bit of extra meaning because this is almost one of the last points in which that pattern can still be a success. You know, anyone kind of trading that bearish engulfing weekly candlestick, the last point at which they'd have their stops would be above the highs, theoretically. But you know, those, you know, maybe slightly more aggressive stop losses, they would be perhaps above 85 and above that 61.8%. So if we push above there, it's kind of one of the last vestiges of this of this bearish pattern working. And again, thinking to the Bank of England, you know, where the Bank of England to cut rates, that's negative sterling. And so that's a push up to the highs in in the euro sterling compare. You know, if they, if they fail to cut interest rates, if they disappoint in some way, and I would say that probably it's difficult to if they don't cut interest rates, but do something else, that's the kind of murkier ground. I think some sort of quantitative easing, I suspect that would be pretty well received by markets and would probably be perceived as a, as a negative sterling event, even if they didn't cut rates. So that is a possibility because at the end of the day, what, what, what is a 25 basis point cut going to do for the UK economy at this point? If anything, it could be argued it's a negative because it will just hurt banks even more, make them even less willing to lend to the real economy. All our pensions will be earning just that much less, and we'll have to save that much more rather than spend it in order to reach our same savings goals. So a lot of reasons to suggest it's a bad idea to cut rates. So maybe as a saving grace, a bank of England does something else, depends what that something else is, as well as the reaction is negative positive in sterling, I think QE would be negative sterling, but maybe something like a funding for lending extension of that scheme, probably would be a sterling positive. And so in this case, obviously, we'd be looking at maybe even a push down to that rising trend line in euro sterling, maybe even a break of it. So I'll quickly touch on the, you know, we had some quite weak European PMIs today. So we're down a bit in European stock markets. We had been up earlier, the banks, the banks shares have been up, had been up after those bank stress tests over the weekend, but they're down a bit now and that's kind of dragging European markets low. And you can see that we're at quite an important level on the the Germany 30. We broke this declining trend line. We've come up to this 10 490, which I've certainly had on my chart for a long time. Those of you have been attending these webinars and that's that's where we're pulling off from quite sharply today. So obviously the next support is broken, you know, broken resistance up for a retest of the declining trend line. So to my mind, that would come in probably around sort of 10 to 50 mark. If we can sustain there, then we're looking at another jump up to 10 500. If we get a false break above this declining trend line and we basically hold in the same range that we've been in for a while, then that could be quite a serious decline on the cards for the Germany 30. Because you can see what we're trying to do here is break out above those highs from earlier in the year and push into an up trend. But at the moment we're just range bound. We're basically sideways in this European stock market at the moment. We've already looked at the US indices. Obviously they're way out of their range. The UK is out of its range as well. Europe, not quite, is trying to find its way. But it just doesn't quite have a catalyst at the moment. I'm going to switch gears to the commodities. So let's have a look at oil. Now, oil arguably one of the big reasons why equities are going sideways at the moment. I'd say some of it ahead in the Bank of England. Some of it just digesting all the multiple earnings that are taking place. But the fact that oil is slumped off pretty massively, you know, is one reason why equities are going sideways. I think it's probably, you could spin it positively and say it's a good thing that equities have held up as well as they have given quite a big slide that we've had in oil. So you can see we had these levels on our charts as of last week. It was this previous high from the 18th of March, a combination of 38.2% FIB of the whole run higher this year. And I'd say most importantly, the 200-day moving average, that's acted as support so far. And we've got this little hammer pattern on the daily chart on Friday. At the moment, we're pulling back down into the lows. And so even though I think we've got a confluence of support there, one worry is that we had this nice kind of positive bullish divergence from price and momentum. But we actually took out that support on RSI at 40. And so that momentum shift there is part of what helped trigger this big slide down. And it could suggest that we've got a bit further to go. If we do take out last Friday's low and the 200-day moving average, then logically to me, that was the 38.2% that we've been kind of supported by, logically to me would go right down to 40, which is obviously the 40 round number. It's the 50% retracement of the rally. And it's the April 18th low. So we've already had a decent decline here. We don't have to go lower. But if we do, that's a pretty solid support. In line with the trend, you'd be shorting into it. If you're comfortable going against the short to momentum, it's a potential buying area. But again, stop losses would be tricky here. You can have your stop losses a certain number of points below the low and just assume that the volatility can't take it too much past the support. Or you need a pretty wide stop down below that previous low at the beginning of April. The April 4th low. So if you ever stop loss that wide, you're kind of aiming for a push maybe up to those lows here that we broke down from, but ideally back to 50. But that will be the kind of trade that a lot of longer-term players would be looking for, a buy around 40 trading back up to 50. And fundamentally there's not, we had a build in US inventories last week, which sort of shows that the supply glut is still in the market, but it's still not as bad as it was. And it's not really enough evidence to suggest a major collapse in all prices. So, you know, maybe if there is a kind of fear based shock sell-off down to 40 again, you know, you can kind of ride, you know, perhaps kind of go up against that immediate sentiment, that immediate bearish sentiment with an opportunity. So that's Brent, but we've got a pretty similar looking picture in WTI. Again, a hammer pattern on the daily chart, off the 200-day moving average. On our prices, WTI is pretty much bounced off 40. So that's a, you know, that's a round number support and it's consideration for WTI and for Brent, the fact that WTI is hit 40 is, you know, something to consider if you're shorting Brent, because WTI is hit that round number, the two tend to move in sync. The WTI is not respecting the fib levels, as well, I would argue. I mean, you can see that in the past, this 38.2 has been significant in terms of these highs and lows, but dropped straight through it pretty easily there. Nonetheless, I would say that 38.50 is the 50% rotation of the run higher from the lows earlier in the year and could support the price. If not, again, the April 18th low would be an area to look at if we do drop further. Worth mentioning another reason to suspect, maybe we can go further as we've not quite reached an oversold area on the RSI yet. So suggesting that RSI is pointing lower, so kind of a trending lower in price, but it's not oversold, so it's maybe not overextended just yet. Let's have a look at gold. So this is the weekly titan gold, and so far so textbook, because this is our January 18th peak for the 2015. Broke above it. Well, we had the first test, obviously. Broke above it. We've come down, we've pretty much just tested that old peak and then rebounded pretty nicely last week. The source of confusion, I suppose, is that we did have this bearish and golfing week. As I mentioned up here in the chart forum, bearish and golfing week been followed by a bullish and golfing week. So again, it's that thing of anyone who is selling that bearish and golfing week, they're getting pretty squeezed at the moment. I think we've passed the 60, 61.8% retracement. I'll just pull that up now. So again, the last vestige is the old highs. So I suspect at this point, anyone short gold is going to get squeezed right up to the... Oh, I didn't... Hold on. I've just done an extension. There we go. Okay, so we're pretty much at it again. The 61.8% retracement of this down-moving gold. You know, that's where we're pulling back from at the moment. So again, if we push above here, we could see a few of those shorts from that longer-term pattern give way and see everybody quick push up to those highs at 1375. I should say that the trend still, we've broken above this resistance here. So we're trending higher on the daily chart in the short term and looking at this weekly chart, we're forming higher highs and higher lows. So I think balance of probabilities is that we push up to 1375 and then quite likely beyond up to 1400. And always good thing to see is that a similar thing, a similar pattern being confirmed in silver. This is the weekly chart and again, a bullish engulfing week in silver to match the one that happened in gold. So arguably a bit of a stronger trend in silver already wiped back at these, you know, already at, if we close as we are today, we're already at kind of closing highs for the year. So then it's a matter of those intraday highs. We obviously had quite a big reversal from 21. So we'll have to see if the bulls are willing to push past that. I would say that's probably on the first attempt. They're not going to be because that was quite a big sell-off. So if we get into that 21 region, I expect to pull back. But still, again, the trend is higher. And we've avoided a kind of double top sell-off and a breakthrough that 1922 mark. The fact that we didn't drop through there has been a pretty bullish time for silver. That's major support at this point. So I've covered all the markets I want to. Is there anything extra that anyone has said in mind just before we will call it a day here? We're about the 30 minute mark, so I think that's about right. Worth mentioning that we have the the non-farm payrolls live webinar on Friday. So for those of you trading or watching the markets during the NFP, then certainly tune into that one as well. We'll be covering the the data and how to interpret it live as it happens. Quick question about the Ibex. So obviously we don't have the Ibex. Precisely we've got our Spain 35 index. You can see it's underperforming the the German DAX because you know kind of German DAX equivalent. The price will kind of be up here around the 9.350 mark, the highs of the year, but the Spanish Ibex is not. Economically the PMI data was was disappointing today. The banks are quite a big drag, but nonetheless you know that in terms of where do you go long in Europe, I would argue not Spain at the moment, but nonetheless technically we've got this fairly clear cut down trend line. So you know that could be game-changer. First test is a push blow above this downsloping trend line. The next test is the 200 day moving average and that you know that could be the beginnings of a trend change, but at the moment that you know the kind of longer term trend if you like to my mind is down. And you know as you start proving these higher levels maybe some opportunities for short. I just had a quick question about the recording of these. These are recorded and we put them on YouTube, so normally hope to have it up on YouTube within sort of two three hours. So have a check on the platform. I'll put an insights update just to say that the recording is ready and that will be on YouTube. So I'm going to end the recording here, but I do have an extra question on Sterling Zah against Sterling gets the RAND. So I'll certainly answer that but I'll stop the official recording as of now. Thanks very much for everyone for attending. Anyone else to rush off from their lunch break? Thanks for attending but I'm going to answer this question on Sterling Zah.