 NVIDIA is going to be super damn important for Monday for investors, mostly investors because traders, we trade both sides of the market. But if NVIDIA fails to lose the 20-day moving, a 10-day moving average here, we can get a measured move here. Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good morning everybody. Welcome to another edition of the AccessToTrader.com weekend update show. Hope everybody is doing well. Hope everybody is having an absolutely phenomenal weekend. Hope everybody is having fun. Enjoying themselves is more important. Continuing to smile. Continue to smile. That's what life is all about and staying healthy. For all you guys who are brand new to the channel, welcome. Thank you very much for tuning in. If you aren't new, please be kind and share, like. Most important, subscribe. Subscribe to the channel. We do this Monday through Wednesday and again on the weekends to kind of give you an unbiased tour of what we believe is going to happen next on a day-by-day, case-by-case, trade-by-trade study of the stock markets. Hopefully everybody is doing well. Again, welcome aboard. So let's talk about it. So if you look at the indexes for the week, you're not going to get a lot of sense of how the market played out. You have the Dow down 1.7%. You have the S&P and NASDAQ down 1.4% for the week, which is again not a bad thing whatsoever because, again, we've had this just absolutely tremendous run of the markets. We got the back test that we've been calling for for about three, four days now just because, again, we needed the stock prices to reset, to kind of get their deep breaths back, to kind of get the composure back, to get their C-lives back, and then start taking out higher prices. Here's the little kicker. Sometimes what we think is going to happen next sometimes doesn't happen. And this is where we adjust as traders. You adjust as investors. You make contingency plans and see what potentially could happen next if your thesis doesn't start playing out. That's a very, very important thing to have the super ability to adapt on a day-to-day basis, especially if you are an aggressive intraday trader. And what I like, what we did see was for the first three, four days, we pulled in very, very nicely. By Thursday, if you guys remember, we had a nice turnaround. We had a really nice turnaround, and we claimed back the 10-day moving average on the Qs, and we got rejected right back at the top of the level. But the good part was, coming into Friday's session, was that majority of stocks closed at the top of the range because they mirrored the NASDAQ 100. If you look at Thursday's session, you can see here, we talked about even on the video on Thursday, that the bulls needed to reclaim back this 366.30s level to start moving higher. For the SPY, for the SPY, you kind of had the same thing, right? The SPY needed to reclaim this 437 level. But the problem is the market, and this is what we talked about, the market is the greatest reality show that's not on television. It doesn't have to do anything that you wanted to do, or you think it's going to do it again. This is where we adapt as traders. And the one thing that I did like, again, like I mentioned, we did get the back test. What I didn't like going into this new week coming up on Monday is we rejected it on the 5-day moving average, closing at the top of the range on Thursday. And let me show you guys exactly what I'm talking about. So, let's start off with the Qs, right? Here's the Qs. We talked about Thursday night that we needed to reclaim 366. We did not do so. If you look and start looking at the individual stocks that we started talking about, right? Microsoft mirrored the NASDAQ 100, got rejected off the 5-day moving average on Thursday, did not, right? Did not take out, did not reclaim the 5-day moving average. A name like Apple, right? A name like Apple started building very, very strong, never sold off, but didn't really quite price improve on Friday's session. Amazon continues to be very, very strong, right? And we had some pretty decent moves through Amazon throughout the week of, you know, Thursday, Friday, especially Friday, we had a really, really great remount on Amazon. But the point is, again, they kind of stole that at the top of the channels. But if you look at the biggest high flyers, what really drove the NASDAQ 100 this, this in the last couple of weeks, you have NVIDIA, right? You have NVIDIA and you have Tesla. Now, usually, you know, usually the stock market is not going to be, you know, the synchronous one because Tesla or NVIDIA are tired or, you know, or needing a further back test. But in this point of reference, you kind of want to pay attention to these two symbols because not only do they get their sell-off, right? Do they get their 3-4-day sell-off, they didn't price improve all week. And that's a very, very important thing. And sometimes, you know, we talk about the gravity trade and we call it a great, absolutely great pivot on Tesla on Wednesday, on Friday, excuse me, on Thursday. And on Friday, we caught another one to the downside as well. But they're going to use Tesla as a case point. They both failed to reclaim the 5D moving average while putting in an inside day. That's not a good thing, right? That's absolutely not a good thing. Just from the case-by-case, you know, nobody's talking about two, three years down the line, two, three weeks down the line, just from the case-by-case basis kind of leading into the next day. And when you have an engulfing candle, you know, engulfing candle to reclaim the 10-day moving average, and the next day does not price improve and puts in a middle candle, you know, forcing it pretty much an inside day, then you have a realistic possibility of a potential, you know, potential further pullback in those shares. So for Tesla, for example, I, you know, I'm watching, I always watch Tesla both ways. I don't have a bias on Tesla. Matter of fact, I trade both stocks both ways. But here's makes a very interesting scenario on Tesla. Number one, we know the market didn't price, price improve back over the 5-day moving average, neither the Tesla. We know Tesla had a lower back test and a lot of names, especially did not recover on Friday sessions. We know that, especially down another $8. The question is on Tesla, what happens next? So I'm definitely watching both sides of the metrics. That's the whole point of having an inside day. If they could reclaim back the 5-day moving average, then yeah, I do believe we can get back to those recent 277 highs. But here's the point of reference that we have to pay attention to. And based on how the market reacts on Monday, we have a very, very clear channel here on the bottom. Everybody see that, guys? You have the previous June lows on the 5-day moving average, and you have last week's lows are kind of mirroring each other. That's why you kind of see this little quote-unquote baby double bottom that was put in on Thursday session. But here's the deal. If they can't reclaim the 5-day moving average and they do start violating back this June lows, right? The test of twice, then yeah, I mean, look how much room you have. You have literally another roughly around 20 points down to the downside. There's a lot of value on Tesla going into this week on both sides. And if you are an intraday trader, if you are an aggressive trader and you're like me, trade both channels. Again, the 5 will set it back to, reclaiming the 5 will set it back to the June highs. But this baby channel here that was started on June the 15th and held on Thursday, if it starts losing this bottom channel here, then yeah, we can get and move all the way back down to 237, 234, something to watch for. A name like NVIDIA, right? And here's a couple of point of reference on the video that we have to pay attention to this week as well. So like Tesla and NVIDIA had an absolute phenomenal parabolic run. Everybody knows the story here. They came out earnings. The stock literally went from $398 all the way to $440. That's a big, big move in about a month. But now you can see here it's starting to you know, start putting it, put, start putting a slow, right? A very, very slow exhaustion cycle. And as you can see here, you have four days in a row of lower highs. Here's a high, lower high, lower high, lower high. And this and the reason why this lower high is, is should be, it should be monitored, especially going into Monday or Tuesday session, unlike everything else that had at least a bit of a snapback on Thursday, it really did not. And it didn't take out the previous days high. And you can see here it closed right on the 10 day moving average. So if you ever watched the PS60 workshops or any videos, you kind of know, you kind of know the importance, at least for me, for the 10 day moving average, I call it the birth of the trade. The five days, the shortest term timeframe, the shows who have control of the shortest term. But this is a nice barometer of who may have control to the intermediate, right? So if NVIDIA holds on Monday, the 10 day moving average and starts reclaiming the five, it's all gravy, right? Everything that I'm about to say kind of goes away. But here's the, you know, here's the key takeaways from NVIDIA. It didn't price improve all week has four days in a row of lower highs. It didn't, it failed to reclaim the five day moving average. And again, you can make it, you can even make a case that virtually every single stock did not, but it got sold off after its investors day. And that's a catalyst, right? That is, that separates it more from like a Microsoft to separate some more from the Amazon. It actually has a catalyst that they actually sell. Now here's the key, right? Here's the key. If it can start losing the 10 day moving average, everybody see these guys? If it can start losing the 10 day moving average, that's where the big value is. Because if you look at the bottom of the channel all the way here, and your next measure potential for a back test, you know, you're talking about a 403, 400 areas. So NVIDIA is going to be super damn important for Monday for investors, you know, mostly investors, because traders, you know, we trade both sides of the market. But if, if NVIDIA fails to lose the 20 day moving at 10 day moving average here, we can get a measured move here going into the 20. Another big, big kind of takeaway from the macro level of the market going into this week. Well, the civil unrest, if you guys remember when the whole Ukraine, Russia awards started, the markets were very volatile up and down, up and down, up and down over the weekend. I think I believe it started on Friday. You had, you know, a civil unrest, you had mercenaries trying to get to Moscow. I believe they captured a city on the way to Moscow. You know, Putin is not, is a wild card. You know, he has stockpiles of nuclear weapons. You know, we don't know how this is going to end. And again, the market just doesn't like uncertainty. And if they start talking about more aggressive ways, again, I personally didn't believe the first time I heard Russia was going to invade Ukraine. But here we are, right? So when this guy starts talking about nuclear weapons and stockpiling them and using them, you know, that's a very, very scary situation, you know, you know, and it can spill over like a domino effect very, very quickly. So we have to see how the market reacts to, it has to react to the news as well. So obviously, that's going to play a big case into what we see in names like Tesla, what we see in names like NVIDIA. The one group that is holding up very, very well is the Bitcoin, right? The Bitcoin names, especially names like Mara. Okay, Mara is incredibly, incredibly close to the top of the channel break. Okay, it tested that level and just like everything else towards in the day got sold off. Names like Riot, right? They're starting to look pretty good and getting above the channels. Amazon has definitely stood out over the last three, four days. We've been watching this video, big, heavy accumulation, short term, short term call buying. When the stock was at 27, they were coming for the 30s. When the stock was at 30, they couldn't sell off the stock. They finally sold it back a little bit into the close, but they're coming for the July 40. Something definitely to watch, especially at the market holds. So going into this week, again, very, very specific numbers, guys, we talk specifics, we don't talk random, we don't speak general, we speak very, very specific numbers to the upside. The Qs need to reclaim 366 30s, the five day moving average should go back to recent highs. But here's the bottom of the channel here, guys, and let's write this down. 360, you can see a 360 held on Thursday, 360 held again on Friday. If we start losing the 360 area, expect a further back test. So you guys should be set. Okay, we don't trade in generalities, we don't trade in hypotheticals, we don't trade on anticipation, we trade on very, very specific levels, we don't anticipate, we don't guess, we don't try to be smart, we wait for those levels to be confirmed. And when they do confirm, usually price action follows through. So I'm definitely watching Tesla. I am definitely watching the video on both sides, but especially to the downside, I am definitely watching the Bitcoin names to kind of start waking up again. And it's very, very important to kind of let the market dictate Monday. I think a lot of traders, they wake up on Monday morning, and they're all, you know, gung ho, especially new traders is a new week is a Monday at I'm ready to trade, I love trading and you realize 15 minutes after the open, they're continuously doing the same things over and over again, and they can't get anywhere. Guys, let the market speak to us. Okay, let the market tell us in the first 30, 40 minutes, what's going to happen if there's a trend? Can that trend be sustainable? Can a price improve on that trade on that trend? Is the market going to continue to kind of back test and start losing the ranges we just talked about? These are all things to be determined. But the key is, let the noise die out Monday mornings is very, very important. Let the noise die out, let the market pick a theme, let it pick a trend, and let it confirm on the 10 o'clock channels, and we should get much more clarity. Guys, God bless, hope everybody is having a wonderful life, wonderful summer, hope everybody's healthy, happy and God's help. I will see you all on Monday. Take care, everybody.