 Hey everybody, what's going on? I am Greg Sosman joined today by Jim Sanis. What's happening Jim? I'm all good Greg because today we're talking baseball And it seems like there is some momentum to potentially have a baseball season not too far down the line So I'm starting to get back in the flow of things. I have a dynasty startup draft going on right now So getting back in the tune of baseball here. So I am excited. How are you doing? Someone say that baseball has the least amount of momentum right now All their behavior disputes happening, but I'm excited. I just want it back I'm excited to talk baseball. It's been so long since you and I I've got a chance to chat about it So I'm excited for today's episode. So on the show today. We're gonna break down some of the Awards that may take place if the season ever takes place some good eyes you can get right now over at the Fandil Sports But so we'll begin with a player that is plus 7500 to win the AL MVP and that is you on a Moncada Yeah, Greg a theme for today It's going to be players with longer odds because no matter how things wind up shaking out for the schedule They do wind up creating it's going to be shorter than usual And that's going to lead to a lot of increased variance because it takes a long time for stats to stabilize across major league baseball And sometimes even 162 games is not enough for stats to stabilize So I want to look at volatile players with longer odds You don't get a lot more volatile than your Moncada 75 to 1 to win like you said And I think that he's my favorite bet on the board right now for individual basis because last year He did cut down his strikeout rate quite a bit and still hit for a lot of power And I like it when guys can make more contact, but still make hard contact That's what Moncada did last year with the Chicago White Sox The other big thing for Moncada from an MVP perspective is that his defense was a lot better Once they moved him to third base I think that bodes well for me because I think that when you look at MVP voting the past couple of years It seems like voters do look at you know all-inclusive stats like wins above replacement And that does account for defense and Moncada playing good defense at third base Should boost him in those types of metrics Moncada is entering his age 25 season He could be on a team that's primed to make a surge here this year teams benefit as well from a shorter schedule So yeah, Mike Trout is a favorite that's justified But with a shortened season a lot of weird things can happen So I am very okay fading Mike Trout going with someone with a lot longer odds And to me the guy who sticks out the most there is you on Moncada at 75 to 1 to win the AL MVP I think you're gonna see some weird awards that the baseball season does happen and you're absolutely right in a condensed season There's a good chance that someone just gets hot and walks away with the MVP and the side young And it's a player that we're not used to seeing in this mix or hasn't gotten there yet Mike Trout I think it's an easy fade I think back to you bother him and as right that one half a season if it was only half a season that they played He would have been the sign award winner. Obviously, we know what happened there But while you are Macata probably a better player than you bother them in as or at least we hope is a good bet here at 75 to 1 Let's go over to the NL MVP where it's not as long of odds if you want to talk about a guy That's motivated. Well, it's the other side of Chicago and that is Chris Bryant as we had over to the north side here Why do you like Chris Bryant 35 to 1? How can you not go anyone longer than that? I just think that the number on Chris Bryant specifically is kind of too good for me to pass up because With the old Moncada we have not seen and put it together, you know on a truly elite level for a full season Yeah, last year was pretty close to a truly elite level But with Chris Bryant we have and it was not too far Too far in the distant past because you look at his three full seasons his first three full seasons in baseball He had 6.1 7.9 and 6.7 wins above replacement and those were in his age 23 through age 25 seasons Then he had injuries in his age 26 season last year Brian didn't get a lot of hype, but he actually was really good He had a 382 on base percentage and now you get him an additional year Removed from those injuries that dragged down his numbers back in 2018 You mentioned motivation will be on his side wants to earn that money And I think that we're gonna see a good Chris Bryant this year He's been working on his swing plane in the all season trying to increase his or optimizes launch angle I think that's really encouraging. So I think that with Chris Bryant What you're getting here on a number at 35 to 1 is you're buying low on a player We've seen be a superstar in the not too distant past We know why he slipped it was due to injuries But now he's had time to rest up. He is still on a good team You know, maybe not as good as they were in the past But still a good team with the Chicago Cubs and Bryant has superstar A cal Superstar caliber season within his range of outcomes. We know he is a household name as well So Chris Bryant 35 to 1 not as long as wonkada, but I think given what we've seen in his past I think that it makes sense to buy into him at 35 to 1 and buy low Coming off a couple of seasons influenced by injuries We can just buy the third baseman in Chicago. You're in a good spot But Chris Bryant has already shown his ability to be a superstar and he has been forgotten about I know in fantasy baseball circles people don't want Chris Bryant Well, I may not be as exciting as he once was really was a little bit younger He's got a lot of reasons to want to put up a huge season this year Chris Bryant a good spot to be a long shot bet to be the NL MVP Let's stick in Chicago and let's talk about the al saiyang and the possibility that Lucas Geolito continues to take the next step Obviously he broke out last year and a lot of fantasy experts are jumping in on him this season Now what's good about Lucas Geolito? I don't know if you're going to talk about this here, Jim But if they're paying a condensed schedule and only playing their division It's a nice division. You're going to play in repeatedly with the tigers and the royals in it We know about your swings and the Indians are always pretty good But if they play all those games against the tigers and the royals, well, that's good Yeah, it definitely is I think that Geolito is a pitcher you could buy into even regardless of that because of what he did last year Which you alluded to Greg you said that he broke out and it wasn't a breakout We can explain because when you look at his pitch usage There was a major deviation with Lucas Geolito Something we'll talk about with you Darvish coming up too is I like pitchers Whose breakouts and changes in performance I can explain based on some sort of change they make For Lucas Geolito, that was a change to his change up usage. He actually threw his change up 27.5 percent of the time from May 7th on And in that time his strike out rate was 33 percent and his walk rate went down to 7.5 percent It's easy to forget that Geolito was pretty bad in the month of April But he turned things around in a major way and sustained it from May 7th all the way through the end of the year If you have a 33 strike out right, you're going to be a contender for the Cy Young award We're seeing that to an extent with Geolito at 22 to 1 But I don't think he's getting as much respect as he deserves given the fact that he was a really good prospect And had explainable success over a large sample last year The only question I think you could have with Yoan Moncada and Lucas Geolito is will the White Sox be good enough To justify betting a couple of guys to win team What is essentially at some point a team level award? Most guys do not win these awards without having team level success less so for Cy Young than for MVP But I think with Geolito and the White Sox I think they should be good enough to push for a playoff spot. We could see expanded playoffs as well It sounds like based on the proposition the players have put forward that could boost them as well And they did make some offseason additions. Yasmini Grandal could benefit Lucas Geolito Edwin and Karnas Yon can increase the offense as well I think the White Sox are a sneaky team to keep an eye on in the American League Central to push for a playoff spot And if they do so guys like Geolito and Moncada are going to get national recognition And they could have good enough numbers where they can push for player level awards Geolito 22 to 1 to win the American League Cy Young I am buying into what we saw last year And I think that if he does that again He's going to be a name to watch as the end of the season approaches I think that number is really really good for Lucas Geolito As you said you can explain why he was good He's a former top prospect He really struggled in his first taste in the majors really struggled in April And then the light turned on him. It wasn't just a light turning on It was well a change in the pitches that he was throwing when you can explain it like that And he was able to sustain it all the way from May through September There's a lot of good there Like you said a bit of a team award at the White Sox are good People are going to be looking at them for awards like Yon Moncada as an MVP candidate And certainly Lucas Geolito as a Cy Young candidate here in 2020 But he's not the only pitcher in Chicago we want to believe in as a potential Cy Young award winner Because UDARPERS is also up there another player that had a really rough first half and couldn't find the plate And then turned it around in the second half and there weren't many pitchers in baseball that were better I don't know if there were any honestly Greg It was it was insane to watch UDARPERS turn it on and it's insane Watching his numbers in spring training how bad they were there and how bad he was through April and through May And then on June 21st He started to lean on this splitter that he started throwing and I mean the everything just flipped immediately It became a different UDARPERS So we saw from that point on from June 21st on UDARPERS had a 2.67 skill interactive ERA He had a 35.8 percent strikeout rate and a 2.9 percent walk rate I love Geolito's numbers But DARPERS was even better in both the strikeout and the walk rate category Which is pretty insane given where he was early on that year If we see UDARPERS carry those gains into 2020 A Cy Young award is very much within his range of outcomes Now the whites or at the Cubs you have similar questions the white sox can have enough team level success To justify betting players like this But if they get this performance out of UDARPERS the odds that they push for the playoffs are going to be higher Because they're going to have better pitching and that's a good thing as well If Chris Bryant can get back to where he was that's going to bode well for the entire team So I'm willing to buy into Chicago in general whether it be the white sox or the Cubs I think that UDARPERS if the Cubs do really well He's going to be one of those first names we look at as being a key contributor to that success And potentially as a national league Cy Young as well A lot of pitchers last year had trouble with that grip on the Same old ball that there always was but when UDARPERS figured it out at the end of June He was a different pitcher and he could turn that success in a major success here in 2020 if they do play Well UDARPERS as good of any choice to be the NL Cy Young award winner and he could wrestle the award away from Jacob DeGraw Now let's take a look at a hitter that may hit the most hormones of anybody here in 2020 But my only question Jim is you couldn't find anybody in Chicago to have this award I tried I tried really hard Greg, but it was really hard to lay off of Miguel Sineau and the Chicago aspect is pretty interesting because they actually benefit from the same line of thinking that I'm applying to Miguel Sineau where Miguel Sineau is benefiting from the way this schedule plays out because think about park factors Greg What do we know about Minnesota in April? It is cold and the ball does not fly well when it's really cold you know I remember Oswaldo Arcia wearing like like a full on like face mask one time because he wanted to stay warm because it was So cold they're playing in Chicago there, but a Minnesota twin playing in cold weather That drags down their numbers for the month of April and to a certain extent the month of May as well We're not going to have those months in the schedule We may have october which would be a different discussion But if they play through the end of october or through the end of september We're going to be saying seeing our entire sample of minnesota twin's baseball this year being played in warm weather And minnesota in july is hot It is humid and that is when the ball flies best and hot and humid conditions That goes well for Miguel Sineau last year Sineau 34 home runs in just 439 plate appearances He is tied for 13th in projected home runs this year based on danz and borsky's if projections over at fan graphs That's over just 482 plate appearances If we have a truncated schedule The gap in volume between the top end guys and those guys who need a couple of days off like Miguel Sineau Is going to be less less worrisome than it would be other points of the year if it were a longer schedule We'd we'd worry more about longevity and durability in guys like Sineau So I think that you give him that with a warmer park and you give him all the massive power that he has Sineau could really shine in this scenario. It's gonna be hot. It's going to be humid in minnesota That goes well from Miguel Sineau and he is good enough to take advantage So as long as he can make contact once or twice per game I think we could see some really impressive home run numbers out of Miguel Sineau this year Not having to play in april or may the ball should be flying out of minnesota And you know jim's a twins family again, as walldo arcia mentioned here in 2020 But Sineau the power certainly legitimate and if he doesn't have to worry about staying on the field for 162 games Isn't that the worry even about playing the field for 162 games? He's going to be in there more often than not and hopefully the power will come along with him We know it will just will be more than anybody else He's got to lead the league in home runs. He certainly has the ability to do so not a bad bet there on Miguel Sineau One last player award we want to mention. It's not really an award. It's just someone that's going to lead the league in strikeouts I think it's interesting you're going here with blake snel a lot of controversy, of course Surrounding blake snel and even if he's going to play this season given his controversial comments a couple of weeks ago I know there's a lot of bad juju surrounding blake snel at the moment But jim you're still buying on him to lead the ale in strikeouts Yeah, definitely because I think that with blake snel we can talk about the comments that he made and the way that he made them for sure But if he plays this year, I think that this is a really intriguing bet at 30 to 1 And I think that he benefits in a similar way to Miguel Sineau where if it's a shorter season the gap in volume Between the top end guys and some guys have a little bit less volume Is going to be less noticeable than it would be otherwise Which means we can lean more on rate stats and blake snel last year coming off the injuries didn't pitch super deep into games And that matters a lot when we're talking about aggregate strikeouts for an entire season But with the shorter schedule, it's not going to matter as much and guys with a little bit lesser volume Can lead the league in strikeouts even if as long as their rates are high enough and with blake snel There's really no question about those rates last year a 33.3 strikeout rate It was 31.6 the year before that now he goes into his age 27 season We have seen him excel in the big leagues for a while now several years I know that the era last year was not good, but the peripheral numbers Especially once he heated up over the summer they were really good So blake snel as long as he plays I would expect him to do really well in the strikeout department The one big issue I have with him again comes down to the fact that he doesn't pitch as deep into games As guys like Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Trevor Bauer, but You're taking that one concern and making it a little bit lesser I think that gives us some value on blake snel 30 to 1 to lead the league in strikeouts I think that he is a good bet at that number just because the ratios are so good and hopefully We could see him a little bit angry on the mound as well this year It's all about being on the mound for blake snel. Yes, he made those comments But he also paddled that elbow injury last year. He was missing some time in spring training Although he did think he was going to be ready for opening day. He's got time to be healthy He looks healthy on his twitch streams, but you do wonder if he has the ability to even go the distance I know it's a condensed season. I know you don't need to go deep into games in order to get this Get the most strikeouts in the AL But still a lot of question marks to blake snel, but I guess that's why you can get in here at plus 3000 to lead the league That's a note across here on the band will hurry up Jim. We appreciate that time was great talking baseball, man Yeah, I missed it. Greg. It's been a long time, but it's back and we are excited for a brand new season It should be a whole lot of fun And I hope that they are able to work this stuff out because I just want to watch the baseball I want that I want that in my life So hopefully we can get back there again soon and talk more baseball here in the hurry up as well That would be awesome I'm excited just to just to get back in it and be able to watch, you know, everything every night play little Finesse baseball, play some DFS over on a fangirl and have some fun on wednesday I'll be back with Gabe Marenzi. We'll talk some UFC this saturday night man The new NAS in action for jimisannas. I'm Greg Sussman. Stay safe everybody