 Okay, traders, that's 1pm UK time. Welcome to today's live market and trade analysis session with me, Patrick Mullally. If you can hear me and you can see the TickMill welcome screen, if you could just type a Y in the chat box so I know that we're ready to roll here. Good stuff. Okay, as always before we get going, important to adhere to the risk disclaimer. Specifically for today's discussion, it's important to understand that the opinions expressed by me are solely mine and they're not indicative or representative of those held by TickMill UK or TickMill Europe Limited. Brief introduction to myself. Like I said, my name is Patrick Mullally. After I graduated from university, I joined a city PLC consulting firm. After a couple of years learning the ropes, I left with some colleagues and went on to co-found and successfully exit a consulting startup post-emerger in late 2004. I then moved on to explore my passion for markets with some capital to play with and some time on my hands. I started day trading or more appropriately day gambling, the S&P 500. And after some early beginners luck, I wrapped up some pretty solid gains. However, as is often the case, my beginners luck ran out and as the market phase changed, I began to average down, giving back all my gains and ultimately experiencing a significant six-figure financial hit. To say this was a gut wrenching and sobering experiences and understatements. I really have to stand back and figure out if it was feasible for me to make a living from the markets. So I decided to get serious about trading and sought out a mentor with an excellent trading track record. Working with my mentor for a period of 18 months to two years, it was a time during which I helped not just my technical gain, researching and developing a strategy that's importantly suited my personality. I extensively back and forward tested this strategy and developed a rigorous risk management approach to underpin it all. But most importantly, during this period of mentorship, I significantly developed my mental gain. And probably the most important watershed shift I made was moving from being a highly goal-orientated individual focused on financial gains to becoming purely process-orientated. So what does that actually mean? Well, it means how to stop focusing on what I could make from the markets and start focusing solely on managing my mindset to allow me to consistently execute my trading strategy, oftentimes in the face of negative feedback from the markets in the form of losing trades. But once you become process-orientated and you have that professional trading mindset and you understand that the true nature of trading is simply that of a numbers game in which you're playing the probabilities, you lose the emotional investment and that hellish emotional rollercoaster of living and dying by the outcomes of individual trades. I no longer concern of the outcome of individual trades or even a small string of trades. My focus is on the next 100 trades because I know if I focus on excellence in execution, my edge will demonstrate itself over an extended series of outcomes. My multi-strategy approach has delivered profitable annual returns since 2008. Since 2013, I've also been managing investor capital through a managed account service delivering annual positive returns. I'm currently responsible for managing a multimillion dollar portfolio. Since 2010, I've personally mentored over 100 private traders of all experience levels from complete novices to former CME floor traders in developing the technical and mental skills to reap consistent returns from the markets. I've consulted to numerous brokers and trading education brands contributing written content, webinars and live presentations on a range of topics from market analysis to trading, student development and execution. In addition to my fund management and private mentoring, I'm also resident market expert for TickMill where I provide a daily market outlook. Every morning, you can access that through their blog and you can get it delivered to your inbox if you register your email address on there. I also provide through their social media platforms and YouTube intraday analysis of opportunities I'm watching in the market and you can find those through their social media channels. My other passion project is as head of trading and trader education for a leading trading education brand called FXcareerswap.com. We offer development and funding to retail trading talent. At FXcareerswap, we don't just develop retail traders market and trading strategy knowledge. We work on mindset development through a structured programme that culminates in managing the firm's capital at zero personal financial risk on a profit share basis. For those that are interested, you can see on the screen there there's the number of the trade desk in London. You can give the guys a call or drop them an email and they will come back to you in a timely fashion with information with respect to what it is we are doing at FXcareerswap. That gives you a flavour of where I'm coming from. Let's jump into the charts here. I can start with the S&P 500. Before I jump into the S&P 500 here, I just want to highlight to you all that we are actually launching a new programme through TickMill specifically focused on intraday trading, the E-mini S&P 500. We're going to be hosting a webinar next week, Wednesday at 1pm, where I'll be walking through the strategy that I've used over the past 15 years to successfully navigate the E-mini S&P, specifically with using some interesting unique features to the futures market with respect to market internals. I'll be walking you through what we're going to be doing there. We're going to be setting up a strategy group, a close strategy group whereby on a daily basis I'll be delivering a trade plan for this session ahead, the cash session. That opens at 2.30 UK time and I'll be giving specific areas or action areas where there will be trading opportunities and I'll be giving my view on where we are in the market, what the market is looking to achieve and how best we can align ourselves to consistently profit from trading these intraday timeframes. That's going to kick off next Wednesday at 1pm, so I believe there'll be an email or some promotion with respect to that so you'll be able to register if you're interested in joining us for those sessions. Okay, so back to the daily charts. S&P 500, I'm looking for the S&P 500 now to grind higher here and ultimately get a test of this 4123 which is the equality objective versus this ABCD structure and we have weekly range resistance at 4154. We have this ascending trend line coming in just below there, 4142. So there's a 30 point zone there that I'm going to be paying attention to, watching for daily reversal patterns to establish short positions here and I think we can certainly get a move back down to retest let's say the 4000 level from above initially and ultimately I think we can probably grind it out and get a move to get a test of the monthly pivot from above at 39 over 5. From there then what I'd be looking for would be bullish reversal patterns to reengage long positions ultimately looking for another leg higher here up into monthly range resistance at 4244 and then we have the yearly R1 coming in at 4287. So this is going to be a key area I believe here this zone this 4123 to 4153 watch for bearish reversal patterns there to do something on the short side. We've got some nice momentum divergence developing as well. Let's move on to take a look at the equal-wasted dollar index so this is the dollar index versus the Aussie, Yen, Sterling and Euro on an equal and equal-wasted basis. We got bullish reversal yesterday from the monthly pivot and I was looking for some follow-through this morning, doesn't look at this stage like we're getting it but if we can get a break of yesterday's highs I think it sets up a test of that 120 equal to objective yearly pivot just above at 1296 sorry a monthly range resistance 1277. Certainly I'd be paying attention to how we trade there I think bearish reversal patterns in that zone offer an opportunity on the short side and let's take a look at the broader equal a broader dollar index and again we got that bullish reversal coming from the weekly range support at 92.14 but we're not getting any follow-through at the moment if we can get follow-through I think that's an opportunity to set a base then for this test of the yearly pivots at 94.16 and we've got an equality objective at 94.08 from there again watching for bearish reversal patterns to do something on the short side but if we lose weekly range support then I think we're headed back down to take another look at this 91.28 support zone and then we could be setting up ahead in shoulders to see us actually trading back down into this 90.27 support so today the close today and tomorrow are going to be pivotal to see which which way we're going to which way this is going to play out with respect to the dollar index but whilst we're holding weekly range support we could we could see a break to the upside but like I say we lose it and I think we're back down into 91.28 in pretty pretty short order the US 10-year yield has come off testing support now this is going to be again this pivotal to to where we see this dollar trade if we can get back through yesterday's highs at the 1.67 percent range I think that sets up them to the next leg to the upside with the yields really can't can't get concerned really about the the yield story here unless we take out this interim trend channel support at 1.585 percent let's take a look at gold gold moved nicely through that from that double Boston stalling out a bit here now we might have might have some range resistance coming in here any pullbacks that ultimately hold support at the 1712 1715 area I think set up a nice opportunity on the long side to to get a move up into the yearly pivot from below around 1800 dollar level silver coming into symmetry swing resistance when I talk about symmetry swing resistance I'm talking about the last swing here that we had before we rolled over so silver look for it looking for silver to stall out here at 2560 and then take that next leg lower into the range support at the $22 level and that is going to be the area where I'll be paying close attention to how we trade because I think there could be an opportunity to to play that support zone to also move back up to test range resistance 30 dollar area crude oil going nowhere fast at the moment holding the 62 29 we are looking for I'm looking for a 51 test here the equality objective and then I'd certainly be interested in crude on the long side looking for a move up into the top side of the channel 74 50 now in in crude so we'll we'll have to see if if we get this lurch lower to test the support zone that that's the key area for me in terms of crude oil Dr copper not not going anywhere either at this stage whilst we hold 418 as resistance we're looking for 367 and that will be the area to re-engage on the long side for copper bullish consolidation really at this point is is what we're doing as as we digest this big move that we've seen to the upside in terms of copper and if this stimulus plan I think I mentioned this last week if this stimulus plan gets gets backing in the US then they're going to be needing needing a whole bunch of copper to implement their infrastructure programs so bullish copper really is the is the name of the game bitcoin coming into some support here monthly pivot from about 55,000 internal ascending trendline third touch 54 54 yeah 54,000 so watching the bullish reversal patterns here and I might well look to add to my cash position if we get a setup so I think we can then be looking for a 66 let's say 67,000 test on the upside but still cognizant of this momentum divergence which I think you know we should be addressed at some point and when it does the area I think we'll trade back to is this this ascending trendline for a third touch we'll just have to see when when that plays out but that would certainly be an area where I'd be looking to to add to long positions in bitcoin the dollar yuan has held is looking to hold this trendline here and if we can hold this trendline in a bullish reversal pattern today through the pivot there at 656 then the next stop is going to be 664 on the upside if we lose weekly range support at 652 then we look for a retest of 647 on the downside dollar yen has pulled back into the the initial support zone that I've been watching here so we'll have to see if we can hold here I get a bullish reversal into into next sorry into tomorrow's the Friday close and I think that could actually set up the the next area the next opportunity on the long side in terms of the dollar around here and ultimately I'm looking for that 113 before we we see a more meaningful correction swissie had short positions running in this took profits earlier in the week here now looking to see if we can hold this weekly s3 here then I think we can see another leg to the upside here to ultimately target this way five objective at 95 and we'd have this trend line coming in just above the 95 25 yearly R1 coming in at 95 70 so this will be a pivotal zone here and I think this is if we hold this support area then this is I think where we're going to stall out and see a more meaningful correction in the swissie but if we lose this s3 then we're in quick quick order I think we're back down to 92 11 and then we'd have to start thinking about having shoulders scenario developing and a much deeper corrected move playing out in the swissie so pivot's on to see how we how we trade at this s3 can we hold it can we get back above the monthly pivot and the VWAP cluster here to set that leg for that at 95 Looney not going anywhere fast this stage looks to be in another corrective phase I'd certainly paying attention to any move into this 127 20 area watch for bearish reversal patterns there and I think that sets up a mood to get down into this 120 really it really the only way to for me anyway in terms of thinking about getting constructive on the looney what we'd have to see would be some type of inverse head and shoulder scenario so get up into this monthly range resistance and then hold hold this 126 area support to suggest a bigger advance but whilst we whilst we can't until we until that type of pattern starts to play out I remain bearish looney euro so we see we've seen a nice correction higher from from the yearly pivot so it was good I was long that the euro earlier this week had a couple of positions took profits on those but a bearish reversal pattern yesterday pinbar there from the weekly r3 and it closed but it it closed bearish in terms of the normal candlesticks but I use this I use the five-period vwap to give me the indication of the near-term trend and that still remains bullish at the moment so I what if we've got to close back below that vwap so around this 1840 level today with the RSI stochastic up into the overbought zone that could set up this this next leg lower here to actually target this this 116 a support if we don't get that rejection then I think would probably into this type of if we're probably going to see a correction continue to move higher and ultimately get back up into this 119 80 area you can see what I've been looking for with this type of scenario to play out to ultimately trade into that 120 before then maybe we had lower again in what we could see then would be a much bigger head and shoulder scenario but uh watching yeah paying attention to the close here on the euro if we're going to close back through that 118 13 that would that be a bearish development I think and we could be looking for an early test of the 116 which obviously coincides with the dollar index heading back up to that 94 target I talked about in the beginning what I'm paying close attention to on the close tonight is this euro yen potential double top here bags of divergence so if we get a week close here in the euro yen I'm going to be looking at short positions tomorrow for the euro yen and I think we get it we can certainly look back down to 128 30 is the first port of call for for a euro yen decline here if we're and then if we take out the trend line support and it's 127 40s again so we'll see how that plays out but we're looking for a week close double top with all the divergence that's that's that's qualifies as a signal for my strategies euro sterling this uh this trade is higher I was long this this morning and I scratched the trade we have basically come into symmetry swing resistance here to the tick you can see and and I was looking for some buying pressure to kick in this morning and take us through that didn't happen so I'm out of that position now and I'll watch for maybe a deeper corrected move to develop before before taking another look potentially on the long side in terms of the euro sterling euro CAD came just shy of the target zone that I was tracking there and we're seeing some tails here some definite supply coming into the market so it could be now that we have a wave four high in place here and if that's the case the the downside here for the euro CAD should equal wave one whoops it is it so if we have our wave four in place then the downside objective now becomes 145 for the euro CAD so it's got a bit of work to do to get back through the VWAPs here but the close below 149 13 would be bearish for the euro CAD and I'd certainly be thinking about looking at short positions there to target that 145 area sterling Aussie set up well we came again just shy of the equality objective and we're seeing some weakness develop here we'd certainly want to see this trend line taken out monthly range sport weekly range sport gone before getting in before looking at short positions in in the sterling Aussie but if if we can get through those areas then there's plenty of scope on the downside sterling Aussie sterling again I was in this position this morning short and it's it ran a little bit of profit running in that and I thought it's very even and we've since seen a bit of a bounce if we look on the intraday chart here going to the hourly you can see this was the setup I was tracking I was looking for this extension lower from the pivot which we started to get but it was ultimately to be or proved to be a bear trap because we immediately held the lows there and then got that bullish inside reversing so now we're back up so what's the story so what what I've been looking for here is maybe a three-way scenario like this to develop and then I'd certainly look again on the on the short side in terms of sterling I'm looking for a test of 135 50 on the downside before really getting bullish again on on sterling so that's versus this swing here so whilst we hold this area's resistance this gives me the the downside objective in terms of an equality move so we'll have to I'm going to be keeping an eye on sterling on the short side sterling yen great setup here in sterling yen I actually didn't so I actually missed it being away from the desk but triple divergence we got great divergence set a big outside reversal consolidated and then broke lower so whilst whilst we continue to see pressure on the downside now we want to think about in terms of targets here and the initial way that I looked to measure for these targets is symmetry swings so we can initially look now for potential support to develop 149 57 and then what I'd watch for is if we can get in here get that test maybe a bit of a pull back there into a potential head and shoulders to complete then a three-way corrected move to the downside so watch that 149 57 and potential head and shoulders setup to do something on the short side sterling yen sterling kiwi nothing for me to do there the Aussie I've got an order to go short the Aussie at 76 I think if we can get if we roll over today after yesterday's bearish bearish reversal pattern the weekly trend is to the downside the monthly trend is now flipped to the downside then I think that sets up this move to get us into this 74 60 if we don't get it if we buy us on at home there then we can start to think about a target down here towards the 74 level for potentially completing the corrections so this is this setup works for me on the in terms of risk reward and we'll just see if we can get that follow through to the downside through 76 and take a look at 74 66 and potentially 74 as the downside objective Aussie yen watching this for a potential short opportunity as we now have an equality objective versus this wind structure at 81 32 so keeping an eye on that on Aussie yen for a breakdown there obviously that coincide with the the Aussie also rolling over Aussie Swiss has a nice potential corrected pattern developing here which should see support come in at this trendline 70 33 and we can see a pop off there as it's the fourth test of this trendline I think we're probably looking at maybe a symmetry swing move before getting another leg to the downside in terms of the Aussie Swiss these fourth tests tend to be the ones that ultimately see the trendline fail as a Kiwi I don't have anything to do in there let's take a look at so similar setup in terms of the Aussie I'm looking for this equality objective 6902 we had that bearish rejection candle yesterday but no follow through at the moment and I prefer the risk reward scenario in terms of the Aussie there's a bit more scope on the downside Kiwi yen I was looking at this this morning if we get a close at current levels this nice inside daily continuation pattern developing here because we have scope then to test the equality objective which which would see us move like so it's a plenty of in terms of risk reward this certainly ticks the boxes so we're paying attention to where we close on this Kiwi yen if we can close just inside it's within yesterday's range but a bearish close and I'm going to looking on the short side there targeting 74 52 cad yen sitting right at this trendline support let's see where we close on that one there's a potential that we get another leg higher if we can get a bullish reversal so I'm keeping an eye on the cad yen cad swiss just looking for the cad swiss ultimately test this trendline here we haven't quite got there keeping an eye on that if we can get a trendline test here then I think that sets up a nice opportunity on the long side in terms of the cad swiss so those are the charts that I'm watching the the main I guess the key the one that I'm really paying attention to this evening is this euro yen and I'll be looking to to do something on the short side there targeting 128 17 initially and I've obviously the only other order I've got running at the moment is in this in this house so that brings you up to speed with what I'm watching guys are there any questions if you have a pair you want me to take a look at normally what happens then then asks what's a bull bear trap I'll show you the pattern that develops you see these most regularly on the hourly time frame so you would get you get a let's say a strong move to the downside you get a distribution so you get this type of constanza trading that normally lasts through an 80 more often than not you'll see this in an Asian session so you get this type of pattern and then what you'll often see then is the London as London as London liquidity comes in so let's say around 7730 UK time you get the stop run second to re-engage this so you get a stop run that takes out the stops just below that overnight low and immediately reverses and then more often than not what you'll see is a three wave corrective move develop and then that three wave corrective move may terminate and the trend may resume or we're going to start a new or we're going to see a new move to the upside what you want to pay attention to is the trend moves so and again obviously the inverse is true on the long side but you get that trend move that day a strong daily close a candle you know it's closing strongly on the daily then you get an overnight distribution in Asia and then a little pop into just prior to the the London open and then you get that break that stop run that is quickly reversed so if we're going to see genuine trend continuation we expect the market to just melt but where we stall out just just below the stop zone here where you you know maybe 20 or 30 pit stop zone and then you get that strong rejection that's the signal that we're probably you're probably in a bull or a bear trap scenario does that make sense then I mean the pattern plays out on all timeframes I it's just I've over the years have paid the most most attention to it on the hourly timeframe but you know there's a sequence a repetitive sequence that just occurs over and over again it cut this is kind of how it looks good any other questions equally if you don't have a question if you type in n in the chat box so I know we're all on the same page and I can wrap this this one up here and again be sure to join me next Wednesday 1pm UK time when I'll be introducing the particular E-mini S&P trader okay good stuff thanks very much for your time everyone I hope you have a great weekend