 Good morning friends Thank you so much for being here with us on this lovely Saturday morning now We often do I go straight into introducing our Panelists, but really I don't really have to do much introduction because you know most of them most about most of them Profu Profu is the reason why we are having this ASEAN Forum on Sustainable Development is the head of the vice Presidents of UN SDSN for Asia and also the head of our headquarters here and Economist Very naughty. He has a lot of naughty ideas. You you see that later in his presentation Yeah further to my left is Miss Ariel Tan She was here in Malaysia during Najib sign as as a deputy head of mission at the Singaporean High Commission and She is now senior fellow and deputy head of policy study as the S Roger Ratnam School of International Study Nanyang Technological University in Singapore Ah Welcome she's a very friendly Singaporeans from Malaysia Pro Malaysia. Yeah. Well, you know that Malaysians and Singaporeans sometimes we like to And and and to my right is That is three Saifuddin Abdullah and he was always be very cautious people do not mix up his last name It's just a personal friend to me. I call him bro. I don't use that title But what is important is that he was our former foreign minister twice and former minister of communications and multimedia ones and now shadow minister for education and higher education and He has been active International affairs even before 2013 at one point the chair of the global moderate muslim Further to my right. Thank you Further to my right is prof quick Chang Swee at UKM his professor of international relations and head of ASEAN study Asian studies at the Institute of Malaysian and international study eggmas at UKM and People in the IR field. You certainly don't need any introduction from me about him He's a towering figure in the field now. So today we're going to talk about your strategic trends and ASEAN future and I want to steal something from from pop quick first, right? Can I do that the three I? right So that's stealing a little bit of his show. He said that ASEAN is three. I is imperfect Ineffective but indispensable so Not perfect, but you need it for some reason now we are going to give our panelists 10 minutes each So at three minutes, we'll see a sign and then one minute Another sign and then time's up And I'll give you at most 30 seconds to one minute to wrap everything up No matter how much you have to say because the the key point is for you to have Q&A Now I assure you I wouldn't be the fifth panelist. You're not going to see a super active Moderators going in and so on. I'll just basically get them to question each other to answer your questions and After that we come to We come to the Q&A session you can ask questions, but if you want to give a talk Hold hold on wait until everything is finished. The floor is for you out there Right, but you ask question I'll give you up to one to two minutes and so we collect questions and so on now without further ado I would like to invite area. Thank you Good morning ladies and gentlemen. I would like to thank the organizers for inviting me and for their warm hospitality I'm honored to be part of this distinguished panel Apologies for my poor voice as I'm recovering from a cold my remarks today conveying my own views and do not represent My that of my think tank or my government The key strategic trends of our times are well publicized namely the relative rise of China and India and the relative decline of the US and Russia The consequences include US China rivalry closer China Russia ties India's non-enignment, but closer ties with the West the active diplomacy or wealthy Gulf States higher risks of miscalculation and proxy wars skirmishes at 10s borders and the Taiwan contingency and economically higher protectionism and slower tech transfers and innovation This is testing the state craft of great and middle powers and Small states and the resilience of the multi-electro system that sustains a degree of civilized international life for states The organizations under strain include the UN EU NATO SEO G20 and most importantly ASEAN I Would argue however that deeper generational challenges are being posed by the rapid and under-regulated development of artificial intelligence and Digitalization of social exchange and the economy the race in military spending nuclear weapons acquisition and space exploration climate change loss of biodiversity and environmental degradation physical food water energy in security and critical demographic trends migration and conflicts Each of these developments are stressing national populations political systems and policymaking and presenting true strategic implications for the global community yet international cooperation on these critical issues have been neglected or complicated by great power rivalry But media tends to focus on what the power the powerful care about or what most people find entertaining Say on the US China cock fight Even the reporting on ASEAN meetings is dominated by the US China dynamic providing a simplistic and wrong frame for ASEAN's efforts to integrate and manage and Southeast Asia community by engaging a broad array of partners ASEAN member states are not blameless Some have found it convenient to blame US China competition for issues that they in fact have with one another or one of the powers For instance in the South China Sea a significant part of the dispute involves clashes among the claimants dates and have nothing to do with US China competition This panel on Strategic trends is spot-on in linking these trends to sustainable development Indeed sustainable development is what Southeast Asian populations prioritize It is frankly less important to most To most ordinary citizens as to who is right or wrong in the invasion of Ukraine More important for them is the crushing inflation that the war has produced So when powers approach ASEAN to seek our political support Apart from principles and precedent perhaps ASEAN and the global South should also be more explicitly Considering each issue from the frame of their development priorities. Is this event helpful or not to our priorities? Powers which wish to advance their strategic goals of influence in Southeast Asia should demonstrate that they are net plus actors in Supporting our development priorities At the same time for ASEAN to effectively address the great powers It has to be a more integrated social economic entity Serving as a vital net contributor to each member states development goals This requires a greater harmonization of rules and standards in areas ranging from agriculture Environment food safety data protection e-commerce to labor movement Admittedly it has made strikes in these issues including plans for a regional power grid Failure to do so will reduce the dis-incentives for disunity and conflict among its members Indeed some observers believe it is more likely than not that ASEAN will be divided That its members with its members supporting different sides. I am more optimistic While ASEAN states say that they don't want to be forced to choose. They certainly like to have choices Observers underestimate the strategic sophistication of Southeast Asians Historically the people here have witnessed the rise and fall of empires and maintain a degree of agency to thrive Among the Siamese and Javanese empires the Chinese tributary system and the rival European colonial powers Despite multiple waves of migration and their strong soft power China and India has not taken over the region Southeast Asia is neither Chinese nor Indian But a melange of people with long memories and a penchant for subtle omni-directional operations Recent developments illustrate this in surveys conducted by ICS Yusofi Shag and Lowy Institute on regional sentiment The preference is clearly for a balance of powers. This applies not just to Indonesia and Malaysia but also Laos China's growing economic clout and assertiveness in the South China Sea Have both encouraged countries here to welcome political relations with China and yet also be more concerned of being dominated and losing the agency Many have quietly nurtured greater strategic and defense ties with the US and its friends and allies including the UK, Australia and Japan India is gradually becoming an option as well. I Will not go through the quad and orcas But I I suspect that they would be less sensitive players in this region Even if ASEAN still prefer to deal directly bilaterally with the members of these two groupings Russia's invasion of Ukraine The Russian Chinese narrative of the invasion is well publicized and quite popular among quarters in the global South including Africa and Southeast Asia Muslim populations anti-colonial old left pro-China groups But younger cohorts also see the contest as one between David and Goliath and support the smaller Ukraine Overall, if indeed big powers are not expected to abide by international law and smaller nations may be attacked by a neighbouring big power citing historical claims Then these smaller states would have to seek security guarantors such as offshore balances Myanmar As I should try but has little leverage with which to shape the Myanmar hunters behavior But ASEAN's carving out of Myanmar's hunter political leadership from its gatherings has allowed ASEAN to continue engaging the West a choice has been made decoupling of supply chains They increase chances of war and slow down and slow down in innovation and inefficiencies in supply chains negative developments for ASEAN countries But it is also jostling to host production lines that have been diverted from China to the region a Successful ASEAN strategy towards the great powers could be to make strengthening regional sustainable development a higher priority This has to include not just food security Digitalization cyber security environmental protection and climate change mitigation, but also safety and security territorial integrity and Sovereignty if ASEAN consistently chooses partners that tangibly support these priorities This can be a powerful incentive to shape behaviors of powers in the in the region This will indeed be a major achievement of ASEAN centrality So for instance the US China EU Japan India Australia each have much to offer ASEAN in terms of investment trade technological transfer administrative expertise and experience for instance in the EU's case Its experience with rules how harmonization for sectors ranging from agriculture to e-commerce which ASEAN can benefit tremendously from globally Indonesia Malaysia Vietnam are top countries in reducing the loss of primary forests in 2022 Europe should acknowledge and support such efforts and Review punitive measures on palm oil imports for instance The El Niño has been declared for 2023 2024 Bringing with it severe impact on food security insecurity public health Forest fires haze and lower tourist receipts which can lead to political instability and a distracted ASEAN ASEAN will be focused on mitigating the effects and putting long-term infrastructure in place to deal with these regular occurrences External partners that seek to engage ASEAN should be pressed more to work with to work with us on these priorities I shall stop here. Thank you As I'm not much of a speaker What I would do is let you read it and then so that I can sound better than what I actually say Well progress of history does not necessarily go smoothly Well, I'll have two and a half minutes on each of these four Topics we are here of hot and sour soup I think to describe the international situation is that we have a hot and cold situation We certainly have global warming There's a threat from the environment and then we have cold wall What's the growth implications? That's the only thing I'm qualified to speak about because I'm an economist The growth implications on both of them are negative For example climate change would means that Agricultural productivity would definitely decline in existing areas of whatever they grow So that means that we have to start growing rice Further up north or further down south So that means there's a huge adjustment cost The best perhaps to bring an example that you all can Easily think of is that the best champagne in the world Used to be produced by the weather giving the right amount of sugar content the grapes in champagne France But now the optimal combination of sugar in grapes is in southern England Champagne companies have moved and by land there What we see is an adjustment Then we have got the situation of a multipolar world and that has caused a fraying of the global supply chains the division of labor is threatened and That's the fundamental observation economics wealth is maximized by the division of labor If you reduce the division of labor wealth has to go down so to court the title of a book by Lennon Jamal Pan that is Well first what to do we have to think about the all how the US China conflict developed as in everywhere is There are multiple lobbies in every country in the case of the US that is the military and Security group that wants to maintain the supremacy of the United States If you look at like Jeff sex says the magazine foreign affairs the word is are we still number one? Are we the primacy? But they have never been strong enough to set foreign policy Unilaterally because there are the groups that have out voted them traditionally One big group the biggest pro-China lobby in the United States are the big business used to used to be big business high-tech and Wall Street and Wall Street Goldman Sachs and company are the single biggest supporters of free trade with China and the third group is The people who caught himself real politics are Kissinger Kissinger's point is the world is so big Why should we fight let us work together and bully everyone else? so that ascertaining in the Kissinger line which But and subsist and substantial people agree to that group two and three used to dominate policy But now things have changed people have left group two and group three to group one The reason they have joined move people from group two to group one would be especially the American banks when the American when China joined WTO in 2001 the What is agreed was China would open up its banking sector within five years so when 2006 came about the Americans say what happened to National treatment for our banks the Chinese say wait wait is coming it didn't come so they sue China in 2009 and WTO as you know is a very careful Organization so it took them four years to come the ruling is it yes China you must open and China said yes Yes, yes, we're open and the bank of and the people's Bank of China started drawing up regulations up to today Not a single one is in there So you could see that big money Disappointed and they said well even go ahead and con and hit China go and do it similarly Facebook Google used to be very confident that they would eventually be allowed into China because of their technological prowess Didn't happen What's app was certainly better than we chat at the very beginning, but then now we check this become better than what's that so they could see that It is not It's a future threat. So there's a group two has changed group three has also changed largely because one of China's closest friend is Iran and Iran is a sworn enemy of the United States and It was quite inevitable when the heating up of the South China Sea came about The threat Persuaded many people to start switching So it means that in order to stop the Cold War you need people to switch back So how can you get people to switch back? But the point is such kind of changes in the in the composition must have also occurred in China to fight You need two persons to fight So if one person switch, if the other person doesn't switch, that's not going to happen perhaps the switches in China Will partly induced by the US and would they easily switch back? That would happen well, what are the What's the situation in the trade war the primary weapon of the US is Technological restraining restraint on China that the high performance chip So the question is what is the size of the damage for China? Who else gets damaged? I It turns out the people who get most damaged are people like the Koreans So they're very eager. So we did a study together to ex who else do you think are the big people who get damaged? We are assuming that the US is successful in able to stop Technological diffusion if we can make that assumption this is what we expect to find it is a loose loose outcome for everybody because of the reduction in the division of labor the US is made worse off and the 10 and 20 up there is the severity of The restraint on technological diffusion if technological diffusion stopped by 10% is lower by 20% so What do we see are the biggest? Korea Taiwan Lose much more than China and the United States. The other big loser is ASEAN basically we Korea Taiwan and ASEAN have to tell these guys stop fighting. You are not just hurting yourself You are plastering me even more. Okay, what is to be done? I've been told after three minutes. So let's skip and Basically What we have the continual rise intentions is because there are three types of competition interacting with each other trade competition Technological competition geo-strategic competition Someone acts in area number one the other person responds in area number two and The third then the counter move is in area number three. That's a spiraling of tensions So how do you stop the powering intentions is to decouple the competition don't decouple from each other Decouple the three competition and when you decouple the first thing is you got to talk about what is the instruments for each kind of competition and then that instrument should be used only for that kind of Competition does it sound naive? No, I'm gonna say it is very workable. Let's show them that's the next one Oops, sorry, it's me who has to press the next one The first thing is how do you separate? National security competition from technology and trade National security means safety safety means that if the other guy attacks me first He is unlikely to win That is the definition of safety. I want to adopt Such that you can bomb me first, but then you're not gonna get victory just like Japan bomb Pearl Harbor and the Americans Did not You so if we can guarantee that then national security is guaranteed And how do you guarantee that you got to deal directly with the problem? This whole thing of trade is an indirect way to affect the capacity of the other side to project power Why don't you restrain the power? Right away restrain it with arms talks How far our missiles should be away from each other? How many missiles we should each have? This is exactly what gopache of and Reagan agreed to these are things you have experts who can Measure the destructive force of every weapon and we can draw a line on that Let us say this is possible. So then we have removed national security from technology and trade competition What is technology conversation? It really comes down to is how much can a country? Subsidize this industry that competes with other countries Basically, it is an argument over. What is the use of industrial policy? industrial policy for a small country is Straightforward if you do something that fail only you are home because it's more country You don't impact anybody else, but if you are big country If you do something that ultimately fail you harm yourself and your trading partner Because during the period of the bad policy you suppress the world price and the amount of work trade So the other side suffers Now what do we do? In WTO, that is a ban on unfair trading practices We should similarly have rules on unfair industrial policies This is what that is needed to decouple technology competition from the other two That means that what is the point of trade competition? Trade policy is to expand trade. That's what trade policies instruments will be useful How do we go about implementing this? Basically, you cannot have two major agreements arms trade and Trade on banning industrial policy unless people trust each other. The other guy has to do it Right and how can trust be induced? My suggestion is this is where ASEAN could play a big role We tell them We need to decarbonize and protect biodiversity for your good too Not just ours and we cannot do it because we don't have money. We don't have the The knowledge. So why don't you guys form a consortium? Korea, Japan, China, United States and whoever wants to join I think working together to realize the 17 SDGs and to achieve the 1.5 degree Is the package that would allow the big powers to work together and build the trust that would then set the good will That will make the signing of the two treaties Possible. So I stop here. Thank you very much Assalamu alaikum and salam sejahtera. Thank you, Chinwai members of the panel, brothers and sisters I sort of agree with Almost everything that was alluded to by the two speakers before me Except for Ariel not sure if the young one really support the Western position on what is happening in Ukraine. I think Some young Malaysians don't really follow the Western propaganda I would like to deal with three matters Starting with what kind of world what kind of geopolitics if you like do we really want? What is the challenge and then the how is ASEAN within these two points? I believe everyone Wants to see a world peace that is real and sustained World peace that is Just and fair I Come from Someone who Who don't really believe in this? Talks about international world order which come from certain sites of the globe and because of that I subscribe to the importance of a multipolar world And this is where Like was mentioned by Ariel Regional groupings have a lot of role to play including ASEAN and it is the regional groupings that can actually Strengthen our understanding of multi-lateralism because until and unless Multi-lateralism is embraced by all especially the superpowers then all of the other international architectures be it in finance economics social frameworks like the SDG Not withstanding the lobbies as mentioned by my the speaker before me Then We will be seeing a lot of we will be looking and be always subscribed to or at the mercy of You know The super power place and this is my second point which is really the challenge the background of what was spoken by the two speakers before me Has the five superpowers Shadow play at the back and each of the five superpowers have different ways of doing things There's one superpower who is not really super and not very active at this moment in time There's another superpower who was not so active sometimes but Becoming a little more active now More often than not supporting another superpower, which is greater Then this superpower But now also the superpower is being more interested in ASEAN More than before because before this superpower belongs to original grouping that is probably bigger than ASEAN there's another superpower that For Whatever history that we know has always been at war with so many people but never win the war Including one in Southeast Asia and is behaving like a World police and trying to force its hegemony over everyone else including the other four superpowers There's another superpower Who is willing to go to war to defend her territory if someone either provoke or unprovokely were to enter into her territory of influence and Then there's the fifth superpower who do not have a history of going to war And it's only interested in trying to get her rightful place as a superpower and Try to a certain level to decouple trade and technology from Geopolitics, though I would rather use threats to geopolitics. Geopolitics is really a sugarcoating for threats Come on, we all know what's happening. Yeah, but in academic world sometimes in diplomacy We use the term geopolitics. It's actually threats. So it's a world living in three T's Professor quack, you have the three eyes Okay, the three T's which is trade technology and threats. I I Agree with the Challenges that was outlined earlier, but I want to add one to your sir Ariel you I think you mentioned in passing This is about internet governance. This is the new battle Since 2015 the United Nation has formed a government group of government experts on trying to Look at how do we Govern internet, I think they use a term if I'm not mistaken is How member states behave or something to that effect, I think the DG of IDFR can correct me if my if my Terms is incorrect Then China came up with a ten point Wang Yi the foreign minister of all people who is now being Promoted as the most senior advisor to the president in as far as foreign policy is concerned came up with a tone ten point What a counter proposal to the to the to the United Nations Framework or proposed framework on how do we govern internet? I must put a caveat I don't think they use the word govern. I'm just using the word govern To to make things easier, but this is the new battle. We see some of the battle when Some quarters try to ban Huawei or Try to block we chat and and things like that. Yeah, and the latest debate is of course on Twitter versus what's the new one? Yeah threats, yeah Now where is ASEAN in all of this? I think in as far as Fulfilling its main objective ASEAN has been very successful We have had Relatively a very peaceful region in this part of the world no war. No, no nothing and we We have been as as as a region as a grouping. We have been quite Successful in applying this international relations what do you call Strategy called hedging professor Craig you wrote about hedging quite a bit in trying to choose Who do we want to be friendly with in which area and when? So we are quite pragmatic and and I think ASEAN should continue doing it, but It is also very important that ASEAN strengthens is intra trade. I think our intra trade is the one thing We have to do much more What is the test for ASEAN and Does this test relates to my first and my second point? It's Myanmar Myanmar is a Well, I wouldn't like maybe I can use the word classic. It's a classic example of how ASEAN is trying to navigate Her relations with the superpowers in particular the US and China We are trapped in our own charter which is non interference but I have Used the term when I was foreign minister that we should also consider non indifference we should in the in the context of Myanmar try to Yes, try to implement the five-point consensus, but with a framework that has a clear end game Which is pro people That ASEAN should Start officially Or if not officially openly Engaging the NUG the NUCC and the other stakeholders But to date there are only three ASEAN member states who have Either openly declared that we have engaged or at least have openly said that we should engage and that's Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore and that is interesting That's ASEAN within ASEAN hedging You know, how do we deal with the superpowers? When trying to solve the crisis in Myanmar, so I will leave you with that. Thank you Selamat pagi a very good morning to everyone First of all, let me thank the organizers particularly Chin Huat and also a professor who for having me here Such a pleasure to join this distinguished group of panelists This morning and I look around the room I'm very glad to see many familiar faces and also our friends like a DG Shas Azizi and also my good friend professor Pupet Arif And a pleasure to be here. So what I'm going to do is that let me be a To do what the YB Saifudin has just done and also earlier Panelists as well three points, right? So I'll have a three points to present a Malaysian or Southeast Asian perspective of how your political strategic Trends affect ASEAN and also Southeast Asian countries as a group. So the three points are manifestations Implications and also options. So meaning I'm going to unpack How your political trends Manifest in Southeast Asia How it affects Malaysia and also other fellow ASEAN members and also what are the options for ASEAN countries? So first thing first, and I'm so glad for that Ariel and also a professor who and YB has have already Elaborated a lot of points. So I guess they will save my time. I would just highlight a few Dimensions that are quite prominent important for from IR Student of a job politics of perspective. So as I mentioned highlighted by a virtually all Panelists before me US China rivalry is a big thing that the effects are almost Everything and in every domains. So what have to be highlighted is that for Southeast Asian countries Malaysia included this US China rivalry is not entirely new as victims of centuries-long colonizations and also victims of a decades-long Coal politics the current US China rivalry is the latest round of a big power Jaw political rivalry. It's in the DNA of all big powers to compete So what we are seeing is not the first is not going to be the last So Southeast Asia realize that but there are new dimensions in a sense that the current competition between Washington and Beijing there are not just competing on Military ground, but also a non econ non military ground professor who's Excellent presentation. I think highlighted a number of examples US China trade so and so forth and also ongoing a supply chain competition Technologically a decoupling so and so forth are the examples and examples of these Military and non military competitions between US and China only increase by this So that's certainly the key point that we need to remember when we talk about US China rivalry and current Jaw political trends is mainly about US China rivalry, but not just only about US and China There are other big powers the so-called a second-tier powers that are very much a pun and parcel the process and Let's not assume that the other second-tier powers are also on the one side against the other There are lots of overlapping convergence, but clearly there are some divergences as well One good example would be at the word that professor who mentioned a number of times Decoupling and we have a scene in recent months over the last few months including US allies and partners including those in Europe Strong long-standing partners and allies. They are also uncomfortable with the feasibility and also Desirability of a decoupling so much so European leaders are the one who push for the so-called notion of De-risking Something that I think many in Southeast Asia is trying to observe but that's a indicator and evidence of a Second-tier powers those in Europe and also are the so-called members of a quad as the area mentioned are clearly a pun and parcel the key powers and also a player in the ongoing geopolitical trends and the second-tier powers are growing activism like an extension of the US China rivalry Also manifests not just in the military aspect from all sub-China see Taiwan Strait, but also Non-military primarily economic development supply chain Technological so on and so forth. So all these examples are basically new initiative put forward by second-tier powers to be the so-called Alternative to China's a belt and route and we are seeing the competition ongoing along all these Backdrops and also ongoing development is the so-called a shift from Asia Pacific to the into Pacific when the first First time when the word into passive were proposed very much by the proponent members of a quad I think us and countries are generally very nervous and it was a big dilemma in the sense that Some of us in the region see the word into Pacific as the a code word for containment as a code word for anti-China Many tried to keep distance, but 2019 was a critical point in the sense that ASEAN took the initiative of coming up with our own version of a OIP right ASEAN outlook on the into Pacific which witness that some countries begin to use the word into Pacific But primarily in the context of a OIP ASEAN outlook on the into Pacific to make distinctions between our version Southeast Asia version and also the quad version of a into Pacific And that which leads me to the second point. I would like to share again I have three points here and implications manifests in many ways and We can highlight three Which you could see is quite a mix and be valid both positive But also a negative things that we are happy about things are we are getting a more and more nervous Let's talk about good news. I think clearly there are benefits Yeah, US-China trade war and the ongoing US-China Competition in military and normally three aspect does bring about some benefits Especially we saw a summer so-called the ask the China plus one strategy has the resulted in some movements of Economic activities out of China coming to other parts primarily Southeast Asia Vietnam by primarily but also a Malaysian other countries So Southeast Asia is becoming a center of courtships big powers in and out of region are trying to a court and also a Get the might support and also friendship from Southeast Asia one to a build on a larger partnership So this converge we all converge on the main goal of a diversification Nobody no country want to put all eggs in anyone's a basket either economic basket or Strategic a basket. So these are in a way are bringing a lots of benefits in multiple ways But we say that there is no free lunch when you get something be prepared also to face a Consciousness or economics will say a trade off Yeah, so there are trade offer in the form of race and also a dilemmas. There are lots of a research Both for military and also a non-military aspect militarily, of course, we are worrying about the entrapment when big Elephants are fighting smaller animals are worried will be entrapped but in between and it is not just military a consequences There are other economic consequences as well the ongoing economic and technology Bifurcation we know that would not stop in economic It was spilled over to strategy and eventually big powers are going to ask us Which side are you with so that creates some kind of a dilemma for all of us? Let me say all of us are not just in Southeast Asia, but so beyond and there are big Indicator that indicates that the ongoing dilemma is not over. It's not going to over anytime soon whether or not We are going to see a new President in the White House the next year this dilemmas the competition were ongoing So the dilemma is that countries in Southeast Asia want to constrain but not contain China There is a distinction in the sense that as smaller countries you do welcome some balance of power to constrain a rising power in Geographical proximity, but you know that there is a thin line between Constraintment and containment, which is why many are keeping the distance from some of the quad and into Pacific initiative Primarily we welcome constrainment opportunity, but not the possibility that will lead to a containment. We want diversification We do not want decoupling. We do not think that is possible and we are a bit skeptical like why be I mentioned whenever big powers mainstream Analysts talk about rules-based order like minded and de-risking Southeast Asia have our own interpretation. So in the remaining minutes that I have let me very quickly Turn to the third and also my final point And it's about the options, right? So options like in many other things in life There are multiple but there are some options that you know is a non starter the non starter option clearly is that we Side with one against the other Southeast Asia have long decided is we are not indecisive We are not the kind of hesitation and all that we have to make our own decision We are making our own decisions that our choice is to make a choice among any of the competing powers and then so this is the first kind of a distinctive instinctive principle and also behavior that Southeast Asia Already internalized is in the smaller states of DNA to have these three behavioral Tendency and this tendency have manifested continue in many many ways both Militarily, but also a strategically and economically. So to cut the long conceptual issues short I'm talking about hedging without using the word hedging. So hedging like a YB mentioned earlier on there are three Elements, they are three defining elements. You see all three, you know that Some hedging behavior is not going and let's bear in mind that the hedging is a policy without pronouncement All policy you need to announce you need to pronounce Haging you don't pronounce because once you pronounce hey, I'm hedging then I think it defeat the purposes, right? But when you see these three Indicators and three evidence, you know that someone is hedging and it's not just in Southeast Asia But also beyond first of course, it's about neutrality meaning not taking sites But you are not just saying that you are taking site not taking sites a passively or reactively It has to be active. Haging is different from neutrality in the sense that hedging is an active form You need to take initiative and it's not just about active neutrality. It is also about diversification you need to diversify economically and also diversify strategically and you need to do that Inclusively meaning that if you are just diversifying your options Strategic options within one camp rather than both or all camps that is not hedging. It has to be inclusive Finally finally is about fallback. We use a fallback all the time, right? And in layman term fallback means that it's a human instinct We in all occasions under high stakes high risk we will have The instinctive behavior of what if or just in case right not just in time but just in case What if China become even more assertive? What if a US commitment become uncertain beyond a certain year? What if the economic that we are seeing stop and become a problematic? What if the second tier of powers activism might not necessarily being as a benefits But also a more problematic and therefore it's instinctive and that's my final point It's an instinctive for all countries as Rational actors to try to keep options open as much as possible Some contingency some strategic options have been a play out on a daily and Weekly issues. I will stop here and look forward to your questions and so comments Thank you. I want to invite first round of questions Introduce a cell your institution Your question and who do you want to point that question? Okay. Hello. Hi. My name is Ely. I'm a PhD student from IKMAS So I have what two questions actually the first question. I would like to direct to professor who? Previously you were talking about countries working together to form an equal power with the superpower What if we create claimants states join our to Riti between claiming state in South China Sea? Is it possible and for the second questions? I would like to direct to why be that was three side food in In your opinion, do you think that the claimants state join at Riti is an appropriate approach for Malaysia and The involved countries in creating peaceful coexistence in South China Sea. Thank you. Hi. Good morning, everyone I'm Annie's a master student from Nozai University Malaysia. So my question is directly to why be That's what I food in a blower What are your hopes especially in Malaysia's governance to promote the country through public diplomacy with us here? Thank you Hey, good morning. My name is shaker. I don't belong to any particular organization. I'm just an individual My question relates to all the panelists and just drawing from the various comments made so far this morning my question is How does ASEAN as a grouping Have a stronger voice in the sense that my my perception is that there are so many Economic and political groupings out there and you know bricks is another one. That's emerging and becoming more prominent now. I Think it was mentioned earlier in one of the presentations that you know ASEAN has done pretty well for itself fairly peaceful You know going about its business trying to develop its individual and collective goals And that's probably a good thing. But how does ASEAN going forward have a stronger voice on The world stage because my perception and I may be wrong is that ASEAN is kind of fairly quiet in that sense We hear a lot from the various other groupings But I don't seem to see or hear a lot that's coming out from ASEAN as a strong economic and political Grouping that's my question. Thank you. I'm Ravi from HALP University Now I will in the context of sustainable sustainable development and force implementation and enforcement is critical and one of the Points that we need to look at is the ASEAN policy of non-interference Now I just feel that it may be a Soap horn in the process of enforcement simply because for example in the case of Laos and its aggressive development of building of dams and Currently there are about 70 dams in operation in Laos and 30 under construction And they have got plans to build another 200 dams. Now. This is actually affecting the ecological environment of the Delta the the Mekong Delta now, of course Laos has its own reasons being a landlocked country It is critical for them to look at any contributing factor in their In the India towards their GDP. So how can ASEAN with a non-interference policy? Engage in in in the process of implementing and enforcing Sustainable development. Thank you. Thank you so much for all the questions asked I would like to invite our panelists to respond to the questions we have two three questions that specifically point to Delta III and also Prof Wu the rest are open also that if you have anything to respond to each other. So I'll start with Delta III first everyone would get up to four minutes so we can have a second round On the claimant states story I think the challenge is really to get ASEAN out all of the 10 ASEAN member states to agree because you are now talking about Not all of the 10 ASEAN member states and normally we always fall we always go back to the Notion about ASEAN centrality all 10 has to agree. So that would be Where where we should start. Yeah, so it's not about yes or no. It's really about The ASEAN centrality plus Whenever we deal on claimant states the understanding is again, we do not do it unilaterally You may do it quietly, but you never announce it. So you don't have Malaysia China unilaterally trying to deal with But think but in Gali is done within ASEAN centrality or the concept of ASEAN centrality On our public diplomacy, I suppose this is something that we really need to do more and By by more I give you two example one. I think I may as far as Malaysia's concerned The university students exchange we started during Khalid Nordin's time when he was minister of higher education I believe it is still ongoing. We really need to strengthen that and and and do it real All the other exchangers Sports and whatnot those are Tashango kind of thing, but university students exchange is real You stay in one ASEAN country for one semester You study with people in that country and students from other ASEAN countries interestingly for ASEAN the most successful ASEAN youth program ever and Still going it's not made in ASEAN, but it's made in Tokyo the Nippon Maru Program where about 30 ASEAN youth leaders Go on board of a ship for those days three months now only one month And good and visit so they they make a port of call Call of yeah, they they they was the English word for it. I'm so rusty They they they visit all Ten ASEAN member states. Yeah, I think they also fall in love along the way, which is good The current challenge number two is again Myanmar How is ASEAN Using people-to-people engagement not not so many not not too much. I think we should really you know get well the NGOs are doing among themselves, but Do ASEAN people really understand? How the people of Myanmar is suffering for example, just look at the xenophobic view of late among Malaysians on the Rohingyas in Malaysia That explains, you know, how how more needs to be done ASEAN leadership, I suppose we need to really strengthen you. You can't be loud unless you are strong and One of those strength that is still missing is the economic cohesiveness The one that I was referring to as the intra ASEAN intra trade non-interference very quickly To strengthen our intra ASEAN economic Programs remember there was this many many years ago we used to discuss on ASEAN coming up with ASEAN economic projects. There were 304 Pilots, but Never not very successful. I think the understanding was at least three ASEAN member states has to be on board on the project so that the project can be called an ASEAN project and then In dealing with difficult questions, there was this idea about 10 minus X If you cannot get a consensus because consensus is very difficult to get or you can get consensus on agreement But you cannot get the consensus After that in Implementation, so there was this idea about 10 minus X then the debate is about Who is what is X and until today we have not get the answer about what is X. So it's still not there. Thank you profoo Consensus is very hard to achieve and so But there's no need to say that all of us must act together a Group of us will go ahead and act and I think that X is five It's the original five ASEAN countries if Malaysia, Thailand Indonesia and the Philippines Obrunai Well, I'm very pro Singapore Just like she's from Malaysia The thing is if this were to move ahead on any initiative The rest would not hold you back So I think that this whole thing of ASEAN Consensus is an excuse of that the five core members could not agree among themselves to move together Talk about how ASEAN bigger voice the certainty is ASEAN Cohesiveness Cohesiveness because we are under common threats In other words the reason why I don't kill you today is because there's someone else who will kill both of us And so I think that is the ultimate Vehicle of cohesiveness and the truth is what is the danger of the cold war is not the splitting of ASEAN Different members in different group the more likely in the scenario is a splitting of a country into different groups different It's just the kind of revolution Different groups get financed by different parties that is much more likely than Breaking a clear country taking a clear stand on either side on the question of Clements in the South China Sea Let's ask ourselves The nine dash line originally 11 Was drawn up in the last days of the Kuomintang regime when it's trying to play a hero So why should the Communist Party of China pick up something of a defeated group of people? What it why and after all you can defect though have Your Navy patrolling it for our extent you want I Think that we have to realize in a nuclear age the ultimate safety is mutual deterrence Mutual deterrence means you must have second strike capability If you are struck and all your land missiles are gone You got to be able to shoot back from the middle of the Pacific at the other person China does not yet have second strike capability and How can China get that when China is able to get submarines are very quiet They cannot go out Through the East China Sea because the sea is so narrow the Japanese Koreans and Americans was just see the Chinese submarine there To reach the trenches of the Pacific Southeast Asia is the route So it is not that they are particularly interested in Claiming the area they want to claim the ability to move Nuclear submarines to the trenches of the Pacific as a second strike capability Should China be denying the rights of second strike capability that the Soviet Union and the Americans have That is the big question in this At the and why do we have nuclear power submarines by Australia without them being nuclear Weaponized they make it very clear that we know nuclear weapons on these nuclear submarines. Why? Because then they can follow the Chinese submarines as it moves into the Pacific trenches So I think there are no easy answers The best answer is that if there's a centering unity we can say we will take care of The neutrality of movements within the area. You don't worry if your summer is one to go It's not a threat go and do it. It's just like the streets of Malacca. Why don't we internationalize the streets of Malacca? Because Malaysia and Indonesia and Singapore could take care of it ensure the safety from piracy and so forth So that's what we hope that would be an acceptable option Do the big powers One trying to prevent the other from having second strike capability Thank you. So we are the second best to the both powers area or do you? Thank you I think I'll address mr. Shaker's question about why is it that us young doesn't have a bigger stronger voice. I think If you ask us young I don't think that there is a top priority for us young to have a stronger voice in international relations in a sense that We believe So so the original objectives is to bring countries together so that we don't go to war with each other We survived the Cold War we In and then currently the the bigger objectives are things like integration community integration of the community and achieving sustainable development goals that the the member states want to have Having a stronger voice on the international stage as a former diplomat. I think and you know Having a voice and it's on its own is is this is useless It's what you can do to back up that voice and that's what we are trying to develop You know, you have to be integrated. You have to be able to project your resources There's no point saying please Ukraine and Russia stop fighting. Yeah, you can say it But nobody's going to pay any attention to you. So having a stronger voice You know is is maybe a good to have but it's not really the focus of the organization I I I really agree with YB's I would it on you know bringing the The citizens of ASEAN countries together. I I didn't talk about this during my presentation I think there can be geo strategic value in ASEAN Developing a true identity and that kind of identity that stand for certain values such as what Dr. Quick was talking about really a Very active neutrality Non-alignment, but at the same time, you know ensuring that we stand for bringing powers together we stand for objecting to you know pointless wars and and Aggression violence that do not support sustainable development and and this Identity is not something that is really truly being developed I think among the populations some of the smaller and I would say less developed ASEAN countries Ironically, I think identify more with the ASEAN identity. I think countries like South Singapore and Malaysia may be less so So, you know, that is a good project to develop and and with and it's a chicken and egg thing You can't have us an identity unless you feel a sense of integration with the region, right? In terms of norms when you go to another country, you can use the you can use the phones You can use you know what you're getting when you get organic food when you know, so all these Standardization, you know having common norms. These are the things which ASEAN does is working on But it's very quiet. It's very boring. It's not it's my numbing if you go to any ASEAN meeting I guarantee you you'll fall asleep even though even though Yeah, you know, so You know, these are quiet things that ASEAN is doing is boring But I can tell you that diplomats of ASEAN truly benefit from it I can drop I can I can drop myself in Cuba and I will find fellow ASEAN diplomats And when we have an issue we straight away get into a habit and a culture of Consulting and developing statements that we can present as ASEAN There's not something to sniff at because you don't get that with other regions apart from maybe the EU. Thank you Thank you so much Ariel Thanks very much and let me begin by Referring back to where Ariel mentioned right she mentioned the integration of community and I thought that that is actually a good response to her for me to respond and relate to the issues raised by Shikram and also Ravi. So I would add that ASEAN and ASEAN stories is really about integration of community or that I would like to Refraise a community to communities. So it's plural and this diagram concentric so I think illustrated very well and from this diagram you could also see that ASEAN is also a 3D Story right not just three I as a jinhua was very kind to mention earlier on So 3D in the sense that yeah, sometimes can be boring I think that was Ariel's the word and I would like to say is to say that yeah at the boring at the same time But sometimes also brilliant and also a beautiful right Brilliant in what sense brilliant in the sense that ASEAN really has become an indispensable entity the third eye that the jinhua mentioned earlier on Where else can you get around the group right? You are where else can you get a group of smaller weaker countries That's just a reality manage to attract Many sets of stronger powers near and far come to a Sowie Zesha and do some business interaction with first every year what every US China a problem I go on You know that every year every are now and then depending on the levels They will come to Sowie Zesha ASEAN countries take turn to rotate and also organize events right so even at the harder time Like for example a pandemic period pandemic years It was always almost all bad news, right? But you do see and here are some good news are happening even during pandemic time Thanks to ASEAN's story some mainstream analysts have been not very kind by Criticizing ASEAN is no other than a talk shop and I disagree I think sometimes a talk talk is better than war war right and during the pandemic time You do a witness the creation of our set our CEP regional comprehensive economic grouping Comprehensive partnership and that involved 15 countries. It's very much the EAS The bigger the central so called that you are seeing minus India India is not ready So India decided not to join our set but again, let's emphasize and that's give due credits to ASEAN, right? They have done a beautiful and brilliant job by bringing all those very diverse countries together North East Asian economic powerhouses. There are big giants in Economic aspect but for political and geopolitical reasons. They have been spending decades trying to promote Economic cooperation among themselves integration not possible But ASEAN the talk shop and make it possible and stories continue So ASEAN in that sense is brilliant and beautiful indispensable not just because of ASEAN itself, but because of this a concentric circle of institutionalized cooperation So the final final pointer that I would like to Given I think one minute that I have is that last week I co-hosted that we co-hosted international workshop and we had the privilege of having Tansari Jauha and Tansari Side Harmeet and also part result from Indonesia as the speakers for the concluding Session and Tansari Jauha did a brilliant job by coming up with three are three a's right three a's actionable ASEAN agency with all the flows and limitations that will not go away But still ASEAN as a regional grouping has demonstrated concentrated high level of agency and actionable one and agency in three a's inclination initiation and also insistence for the weaker parts to Try to make our own choices rather than being pushed around by the bigger country's stronger powers and Being pressured upon I think they have been a lot of examples that was demonstrated by a professor Wu and also a YBN area. So I will stop here. Thank you So, you know, ASEAN has two sets of three a's one sets of three B's another three a So if you want to learn international relations, you should know how to use Alphabets and cow so that's okay. I want to invite I promise you the second round, but Given the limit of time, we can only go one. So one questions Last question, sorry I'm Rosaini a PhD candidate in political science at IUM Gomba. I Have a very short question really What do the people of ASEAN think about ASEAN? Thank you One of the charges that is brought against ASEAN is that it's highly combustible. That's It means that the internal politics is about to tear it apart, but leaving the micro level aside Macro level ASEAN doesn't need to speak in one voice and I agree with Professor Wu But on what issues one one issue per person, perhaps What issue is imperative for ASEAN to speak in one voice? Thank you. Now, let me just respond to the question by my good friend Dato DJ Shah's in what instances that ASEAN must Speak in one voice, especially at the macro level. I I would think there is one particular issue that we do need to strengthen our unity and cohesion That would be to resist And also at the same time create space vis-a-vis a growing big power pressure For us to take a side the one over the other. We need to Express in one voice that ASEAN's tendency of inclusive Diversification, active neutrality and for cultivation of fall back position are actually good Not just for ASEAN countries, but good for all Everybody including especially the competing powers because if we start to a thick side What with one power over the other the other power will do the same and that would be a not just the end of ASEAN cohesion and ASEAN unity. It will be at the end of decades long regional Stability that we have all of us have been benefited for so long Thank you DG One voice now. I agree with Professor Craig It's about the ASEAN charter that we are trying to review and strengthen because that is the framework for the framework for the ASEAN centrality and ASEAN cohesiveness Timeline 2015 Not because Malaysia is going to be the chair again But 2015 we ASEAN has this habit of every 10 years. We will then come up with our new 10-year plan of action. So 2015 is the year Where the new I don't know what we will call it but already Teams have been assembled and teams have been working hard to come up with the new 10-year plan so on It's actually on politics and security. That would be the primary Issue that we all have to speak in one voice even though with different different songs probably Different action different song But we all have to decide if it is a love song is all love song never mind in which language. Yeah, thank you I think the one team is peace And to be enforced aggressively through the United Nations process We need to have someone like that Hammershock again where he's able to stood up to the biggest powers of his days and Imposed peacekeeping around the world I agree for That's a question on what we should have a common voice on I could agree with the rest of the speakers and also the role of I think External players in the region for ASEAN the truth is you know, actually The beauty of ASEAN is you can have an ASEAN position and then ASEAN member states Also play their secondary second layer second level games, you know So it allows ASEAN actually to be actually a bit more flexible in a sense So so ASEAN has one common denominator position It tends to be very boring and inoculars like you know Don't fight walls and then you have various countries which via sometimes I mean sometimes shift a bit more to one side and the other side and that allows the vehicle to carry on you see That is that kind of flexibility that you people may not notice But it allows the members some breathing space so that you know the ASEAN position isn't just the only position you need to take as for the question on what ASEAN people think about ASEAN I Would think not very much to be very frank because I think in Among in the countries ASEAN is about ASEAN meetings. I said leaders holding hands doing the funny hand holding Funny clothes, you know and regularly there will be some media coverage about what does it have to do with me And how you make how do you bring that to the people is when you you can see that traveling is cheaper More cheaper easy faster for countries in ASEAN when you have an ASEAN lane Which actually was proposed at airports when you know when you think about working overseas you first think about working in ASEAN Oh, we can come to Singapore. You know the working barriers are not as high We the qualifications Singapore companies will know my universities If all these norms and standardizations are there then you know you naturally think about us and when you think about you know Chatting your your your life's future schooling, you know naturally it should be on Universities, okay time's up Thank you I want to thank Digitia for asking such a brilliant questions that we just use that to round up our discussion and Please join me to give a round of big hand to our fantastic insightful Insightful impressive and what else you see that's why I cannot Know three I so that's why you know that probably when I cannot be in the IR field. Thank you