 The morning markets pick off With your host Tommy O'Brien Good morning everybody. Happy Wednesday 9 a.m. Eastern time coming into the trading day And we got markets picking things up barely in the red quite a day yesterday quite a reversal from the lows We check out the S&P's right now. You're sitting at 38 30 pretty much where you finish the day yesterday Absolutely remarkable in terms of the turnaround early yesterday 38 50 middle of the day 37 50 overnight 3850 we missed it by a couple points actually what we get to 38 4875 and got right back up to 38 48 50 at about 3 a.m. Eastern time we come into the My hearing audio I apologize. I'm hearing something. Hopefully you guys sir. We have you okay. I Got audio playing Somewhere into my system. Oh boy, I apologize folks Let me get it up here. Here we go. I found it. Okay. I apologize my computer was talking to me I couldn't think now. I got to get my screen back up there for you There's that there's that okay, and we're good to go back again We kick things back off again S&P's right now negative one you get the Nasdaq barely inching into the positive Let's jump to commodities crude. We're sitting at about a hundred bucks yesterday You talk about an acceleration from 110 to $97 you're trading at 99 42 you can jump to the gold contract My dad with a great call yesterday. I was hanging out with him in the morning We're fortunate to have a great July 4th weekend. He said gold's gonna get crushed man this dollar You know it just hasn't reacted yet. I think at that time. Let's see what time it is. It was prior to the market So yeah, it was right at about 18 bucks. I said some member gold's gold's only a little gold's like up $3 on the session What are you talking about? This is one of those days. It hasn't reacted yet Absolutely great call if you haven't checked out the gold report folks check it out the front page of TFN Right under the newsletters tab and yeah gold trades down hard about $35 yesterday You're chopping around right at that level at 1766 Talk about some dollar strength man. If you're taking a trip to Europe do it now Maybe lock in some euros right now if you're thinking about taking a trip anytime in the future Because yeah dollar strength in a big way. We'll be talking to our man. Teddy cake stat at 40 past the hour He just launched his tiger forex report in the last couple weeks great time to be following the forex market folks with the influence It's having across broad markets in the globe You're seeing a play out right now with some of these commodities in a big way if you trade gold If you trade almost anything right now folks because the dollar is having such an impact You have bonds having an impact on the dollar the dollar have an impact on Commodities commodities, of course having an impact on the markets with forex So we'll be talking to Teddy at 40 past the hour tiger forex report right on the front page of TFN and folks You can check that out as well. We jump to notes and bonds you talk about a reversal of the trend We're up about 11 ticks were above 120 you put this thing on a daily you talk about a rebound We're pushing the highs that we had May 25th about six weeks ago. You make it down to 1 1407 and just like that we're back to a 120 handle right now In the price you jump over to the dollar index right now 10705 and man you take a look even like the last month, right? What were we trading at in September? You're at about 94. I mean a month ago pull this chart up Okay, this is just on the Bloomberg site itself You were at 102 as recently as May 26th in the dollar index right now You're 107 absolutely remarkable. So it'll be a good day to talk to our man Teddy at 40 past the hour And we jump to those notes in bond we said the notes up 11 ticks We get the bond right now up 23 ticks 141 28 You're up more than 10 full points from where you were there and we jump to you're talking about a yield on the tenure now 2.77 percent we were just at 3.5 percent folks We just dropped three quarters percentage as we have the Fed in an absolutely intense hiking Cycle right now and with that in mind we jump to the first headline that we're gonna be getting and we're gonna be talking about Fed minutes folks. They're coming out today 2 p.m. Eastern time So put it on your your radar today the Fed minutes could bolster the bets for 75 basis point hike in July It's especially interesting right now how you're gonna have two forces going at it, right? You're gonna have the Fed that has to get inflation under control Now you have the argument though of a recession coming that's gonna decrease growth That should decrease the interest rates that people are willing to pay in a low growth environment. I Imagine they're probably come with 75 basis points folks inflation is still basically at highs Yes, the argument could be made that maybe we're peaking some of that data indicating so we got crude back under a hundred dollars That's gonna help in a big way and we have interest rates at 2.75 percent That's gonna help in a big way as well But we're still basically at records and the Fed is gonna have to see something before they get off their track right now I would say in terms of eliminating the path that they're on to tame inflation They're not gonna hope that one data point. They're not gonna hope that a few data points may indicate something They're gonna wait for some substantial data. They know they're late to the party and I imagine That they'll become with 75 basis points But we're gonna get the minutes at 2 p.m. Eastern time and they had a lot to talk about The market's gonna be looking for whether they're talking about 50 or 75 what the real discussion had to be in there The Fed could hike by either 50 or 75 in July. He made the remarks June 15th Imagine where we were June 15th. Let's take a look at where we were in this market and more importantly in The note and bond market June 15th Basically almost at lows so you get the market bouncing about 200 points since then June 15th you had crude Trading that's a daily bar. So that day alone. You were at about 118 to 117 We've had a lot of easing there. That's for sure and you jump over to notes and bonds June 15th Basically the lows man. Look at that. So that's when they were talking about either 50 or 75 is what Chairman Powell had said on that day June 15th. That was the day that you again charged higher from 114 08 to 120 Oh nine The Fed will publish minutes of the meetings at 2 p.m. Yeah, absolutely remarkable. That's when you get it, right? It's amazing this market folks in terms of We're getting so many cycles of forward backward up down Digesting news you're seeing it happen over and over and over You know you sell the rally you buy the news you buy the rally sell the news Whatever it is this market is so forward-looking looking that we actually get to the event that the market is trading And that is when it reverses. I mean we get that hike of 75 basis points And what happens that is the low and the 10 year bounces Six full points by the time we get the meeting minutes. Think about that. Absolutely amazing Let's jump over the VIX volatility index right now 27 69 chopping around a decently low levels I mean you look back to where we are since April folks We've only gotten a below this price level a couple times you got down to 24 But for the better part of April May and June you were above those levels when you look where we were Yeah, so it's gonna be an interesting one of the big way we get those minutes at 2 p.m. Eastern time several policy makers in June Since the June decision have said that they're open to going big again at their meeting later this month I don't you know, they surprised with the 75 basis point hike folks because they thought it was that important They've already introduced to the market that it's totally well within play right now I don't think the market would be too freaked out in terms of what's going on with the market pullback with the rates where they are That yeah, why not come with 75 basis points the real fear in this market right now is Absolute inflation forces and the Fed seems determined to get that under control and why would you go with 50 right now? So we'll see there. We're gonna get updated quarter the projections of the 18 policy makers And we'll be able to go over it all at 2 a.m. Eastern time stay tuned folks We'll be talking about man Kevin eggs from TD Ameritrade. 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Just visit the front page of TFNN.com Welcome back folks. We get the S&P's right now negative by two points You're looking at the Nasdaq 100 futures barely in the green down negative by 14 points right now Let's jump over to our man Kevin Hinks every trading day folks right here on Tiger TV Fast market with your host Kevin Hinks Tom White on the TD Ameritrade Network They break down the day's market action folks They walk you through hypothetical trade setups using options talking about multi-leg trades They talk about defined risk in every single trade They set up folks check it out every day at 12 noon eastern time Kevin Hinks. Good morning Tommy or Brian It's a big it's a big week this week shortened from the holiday But still a very important week and yesterday's trade was significant in many ways If you're someone that watches the market on a daily basis You know that the Nasdaq led us on the downside And it was the Nasdaq the tech stocks the growth stocks that all led us on the upside yesterday Tommy and a pretty Significant turnaround. Let's face it from a down opening to a powerful update So I think that's a game changer Tommy and I think you know even though we were soft in terms of futures overnight That means nothing once we start trading today Tommy I think this is a market that saw what we call in the trading business a tone change yesterday And so I think as we were set up here for a bunch of Employment data the next three days starting with Jolt today at 10 o'clock eastern Tomorrow ADP and jobless claims and then non-farm payrolls on Friday. This market could get pretty significant here Tommy Yeah, I was talking about Kevin the move on the 10-year remarkable. I think we're back to 2.77 percent Let me pull it up as I talk to you right now 2.773 2.77 percent the 10 year We were at about 3.5 percent not that long ago and yeah, you had some of those growth stocks I got zoom up here. I was jumping through Kevin as you were talking right draft Kings The usual suspects they had been getting crushed in this market man And then you have arc that kind of combines them all trading from 40 to 45 dollars towards the end of the day Absolutely mind-blowing the turnaround On top of what you mentioned Kevin we get the Fed minutes at 2 p.m. Eastern time as well I was looking at how far this market has come from where we were even June 15th remarkably June 15th That's when we were at about 3.5 percent in the 10-year you had the SMP at a level almost 200 points That was almost the lows on the SMP. What are you looking for in those minutes? Is that something you're keeping on your radar? I know sometimes they might not be as important but with everything going on right now They're getting a little bit more focus at least Yeah, and all reality from a common-sense perspective the Fed minute shouldn't be that important right because it's old news It's something that happened a couple weeks ago yet What every single time the Fed minute come out something moves and there's movement in the overall market So do I expect any earth-shattering news? No I think they'll discuss the fact that there was late breaking member CPI and consumer confidence our consumer sentiment data that moved from I think caused dropout to move from a half point to a three-quarter point move I think that's significant, but we'll see what that means going forward because so Yeah, I think the Fed minutes always have some bit of news in them. I'm not sure why but they always do Tommy Yeah, the market right now loves any insight they can get right into the mind of what's going on in the Federal Reserve Board We have earning cycle kicking things off really next week with the banks Kevin, but the market Very volatile you mentioned all the economic news man ADP jolts and non-farm payrolls, of course Friday What are you guys talking about on the program today coming up at 10 o'clock Evan in the first second of the show? We're going to trade three names total today PayPal We'll look at the payment space and what's that going on in its relationship with cryptocurrency We'll look at light folio will do an inch interesting Like folio do presentation on crocs the footwear company and they love to talk about this company because of the data That they get on crocs and then last we'll look at a very volatile and timely named Coinbase and so trade a lot of crypto You know stories in PayPal and Coinbase and then like folio will look at crocs today Tommy Well, I may have to tune in I always tune in and try and catch the program Kevin But crocs touches a little bit of a moment because this weekend I was hanging out with my dad with a nice July 4th Are the kids in there right now the kids? We got a one-year-old a five-year-old and a 16 year old one year old and five year old crocs are just great for a man Because you know you can hose them off you can do whatever they slip on they're nice and simple so they're running around the hotel we're at Kevin and My dad's saying I think I'm gonna have to get a pair of crocs and I said, you know I think you might get a few rungs down on Kevin Hinks's ladder If you get a pair of crocs just to let you know because I know your opinion of crocs for adults Kevin And I'm probably in the same ballpark, but I was thinking about you this weekend man We were thinking about your crocs. I got the chart up here 183 to 53 dollars Give it give us a little tease on crocs Kevin. I know I know as an adult I'm kind of with you stuff, but as a kid man, it's absolutely remarkable being a parent now how How useful they really are when you just got rubber shoes you throw on your children They can do whatever they want the chart though quite a pullback to 53 bucks from 183 You're right and you know cracks are a great business story and look at the move they made yesterday They have a huge move on the upside yesterday on some news that that will discuss on the show But nice this is a company that has an invention, right? They invented this new type of shoe and what they've done they've expanded and improved and They have not only a story in terms of their product But a story in terms of their business model Tommy and that's one of the significant But as you know if you listen to the show regularly Andy Swann and Kevin Hinks are on polar opposite of the ball the side of this market It cracks because my view when I was a parent of young children. I have five children Nothing that you can you have to have laces and shoes no belt pro no slip-on That we so it's very interesting. I tease people constantly who have their kids in slip-on But now if I was on a boat like you guys were probably I would have a little more or near pool water I really have they're the equivalent of a sandal for a kid or a flip-flop. So yeah the shoes Footwear are evolving over time Tommy in Florida, man. It's like a hundred degrees nine months a year It feels like now so so we're trying to be around water. So it works out well, especially in Florida Absolutely remarkable though back to the chart man. I got it up here on a weekly It's not just growth technology stocks folks. I mean, you know paying attention to your investments putting stops in absolutely Mind-blown that can have a stock like this that's putting out rubber shoes that trades to 183 And you get a pullback to 53 bucks in about six months man And they're probably still a strong company just got a little bit ahead of themselves like many companies out there This go around well Kevin. We appreciate the time as always man We'll be watching at 12 noon eastern time today. You have a great one man. We appreciate it Thanks for having me on Tommy. Have a great day. Always a pleasure folks check it out They do an outstanding job And yeah, I'm kind of with mr. Hinks in the ballpark You know, you won't catch me running around in any in any crocs anytime soon I don't think you'll catch my dad running around anytime soon in those crocs either even though He was a fan, but you watch the kids on them, especially around. We're at a hotel, right? You're at a pool We weren't near a beach, but you go to a beach. That's a no-brainer man You just hose them off anything like that you you know become an apparent folks boy You can make a lot of money just selling products to children And I know that's not their business plan But even with that element of things alone because they as a parent man, that's it's just a go-to and it's an easy one All right, folks We're gonna be coming back check out this market as we come into the open right now You get the S&P up four points 38 38 than that's that up 27 as Kevin was talking about We'll take a look at some of those fang fang stocks some of those Amazon was Amazon free three and a half percent or something I think yesterday say to folks will be right back for the open Time of booming inflation we're purchasing powers eroded. 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He's made some great points talking about It's not as simple as just crude though you talk about refineries Is that number gonna translate to the actual gas prices? We'll see if that happens eventually it would okay? But interesting where we're coming down to you're talking about recent lows since this acceleration to stratospheric highs That low right now that we're coming into April 11th We had a loathing about 92 dollars and on March 15th. We had a low of about 93 50 Okay, so we're at 98 44 right now, but we're coming into basically lows We've seen you back it up to May 11th right that low 98 20 What we hit yesterday? 97 43 and 97 63 on today's number on that crude contract already All right, let's jump around to see some of the other Articles I had pulled up here in terms of talking about Microsoft So this would be an interesting one Microsoft's taken over Activision for 69 billion. They're taste facing a Probe in the UK on this now They may face some heat on this which is why that number is not quite where it would be if the deal goes through So it's 69 billion dollars and what's cool in here? I don't know if they mentioned this article is that Buffett has a big position in Activision blister Which is basically an arbitrage arbitrage play that he thinks it would go through Now I'll have to pull up with the exact number is that this goes through at but it's much above 78 And that's why he's doing it. He's doing it because he thinks the risk reward even if it's not Likely to go through even if it's not guaranteed as in he's just making a straight out probability play that the probability of it Going through is higher than what the market is giving it right now for where it is But they're gonna face some heat on that and that is why The market not putting it right to that number Microsoft today up about four tenths percent you're trading it 264 we'll call it you check out Microsoft's move yesterday from 253 to almost 263 overnight Yeah, we check out Amazon as I had mentioned Amazon spikes lower on the open to 107. Yeah, what no 106 32 and we're at 114 right now On Amazon chairs you jump over to the big dog Apple Apple up to 142 right now We jump back to some of the other articles This one's an interesting one as well. I wasn't aware that they I guess it makes sense, right? But you're talking about you got to reserve all of everything about an airport Even when you're talking about peak hour flight approvals. So the government on Tuesday reassigned 16 peak hour runway timings at congested congested New York Newark Airport in New Jersey to spirit from Southwest now Jet blue which is battling with frontier to buy spirit sought all of those 16 timings Well, Alaska Airlines sought for so you've seen it some of it come through here. Okay in terms of what? Maybe spirit is talking about when they say that Regulators might not let jet blue get taken over in that accord. Ah, excuse me. Let's spirit get taken over by jet blue Okay, because of anti-competitive numbers there now Southwest has operated the 16 timings since 2010 when it acquired them as part of the US Justice Department competition remedy to United's merger with Continental Okay Now they say that it would boost competition and helps help reduce costs for travelers The move secures low-cost service options for newer customers and improves Competition in the Newark market. So they take it away from Southwest. They give it to spirit jet blue Wanted all of them as well. They don't get it. They've had it Southwest has since 2010 Newark a very congested airport An airport that New York City can use if you need to Jet blue was going after all them Alaska said it was disappointed arguing it is uniquely positioned to offer reliable service with lower fares between the Northeast and the West Coast directly competing with airlines with larger networks United is the dominant carrier at Newark operating almost 70% of the flights and previously advocated for the timings being Retired to reduce congestion. Yeah, they said don't give those away. Just cut them out Interesting how all of those play out But it's gonna be interesting especially to see how it plays out with spirit frontier and jet blue We jump over to them to see how they're trading today jump over to Southwest up about eight tenths percent with the market right now Getting a lift we jump over to jet blue shares jet blue right now up about three tenths percent as well We jump over the frontier. Ah, excuse me spirit up Yeah, we'll call it down a little bit four tenths percent to twenty four oh four We've got a little bit of a pop there on the market actually got above anywhere. You were a pre-market You spike to what thirty eight fifty-two and we give up ten points just like that to thirty eight forty-two All right jumping back real quick to what else I had pulled up here. I Thought I had that Fed article because I was gonna talk a little bit more about what they were talking about Let's talk a little bit of mortgage and we'll talk a little bit of interest rates So mortgage rates dropped for the second week in a row But that didn't revive demand from home home owners or potential buyers average contract 5.74 from 5.84 10 basis points have declined 24 basis points in the last two weeks Total mortgage demand dropped 5.4 percent from a week ago. It's kind of remarkable It's just that low that small of a decline when you think about I Mean I would really be pausing buying a house right now folks if I was buying a house I would not be in a rush to see where things play out because that is still a very high interest rate when you're talking about 5.74 percent Seems like we got very comfortable with 3.5 percent somewhere around there. Maybe 4% seemed high 5.75 percent you're not getting a break at all even though you're down 24 basis points from where you were in a high the average contract 5.74 with points increasing to point six five I guess whatever. Yeah, that's where 20 percent down The refinance share of mortgage activity decreased to twenty nine point six percent from thirty point three Yeah, it's tough market to be refinancing unless you really need to kind of missed out on the boat on that one home purchase Applications all so fell for the week and the year down four percent and seventeen percent respectively So we get some economic data this week. The banks really kick it off with earnings next week Let's jump over to the banks as we look JP Morgan right now 111 97 my dad's been talking about them some great calls looking about I mean Absolutely remarkable where you were where we are in JP Morgan when you think about we come into the year with an Absolute hiking regimen going on the Fed right banks going to be an area that maybe you might be able to make some money in and No, nothing is that easy folks. Don't think you're fast. I'm smarter than any market always have yourself diversified Not many people would have thought that the Fed goes on a hiking cycle and meanwhile you have JP Morgan trade from 170 to 111 As we know many impacts going on in this market and with that we have the S&P's turning over Look at this drop. We just got man We just dropped 20 points from where we were on the open It's gonna be a volatile session folks and then you're gonna come into the 2 p.m Minutes on the Fed that will be volatile as well All right jumping back. We get the Nasdaq slipping into the red Nasdaq led us higher yesterday We're gonna slow it today Amazon shares down a percent just like that Apple flat Microsoft flat Google shares down eight tenths percent Crew down a dollar stay tuned folks We'll be we'll be back with our man Teddy talking some for are you in the market for buying or selling real estate in the Bay Area? Including the surrounding St. Petersburg Tampa and Clearwater markets Tiger real estate LLC is a firm that has extensive experience in the Tampa Bay area whether you're looking to sell your current property for maximum value Or you're in the market for a second home or investment property Tiger realty has the experience across all areas of real estate in the Tampa Bay area to help buyers and sellers make the most informed Decisions across all price levels from the price You should be paying per square foot in certain up-and-coming areas to the type of cash flow Investment properties are capable of creating Tiger real estate can help you make the best decision when it comes to all areas of the market Before you make one of the biggest decisions of your financial future call Tiger real estate LLC today at 727-329-8322 Or email us at Tiger at TFNN.com that's 727-329-8322 call us today The technology around us is changing every day with so much happening it can seem impossible to keep up with all the information David White's investment newsletter the technology insider is designed to give you all the information you need to understand the technology that shapes today's markets and tomorrow's future David White has made his living staying on the cutting edge of technology His weekly newsletter will give you specific recommendations for value tech stocks As well as entry prices target prices and stops to set for each trade Dave delivers his weekly newsletters every Friday with updates throughout the week You can get the technology insider at TFNN.com for only $37 and 50 cents Sign up for David's newsletter the technology insider and get an inside look at everything the technology sector has to offer Try it risk-free today with our 30 day money back guarantee TFNN educating investors Will the S&P 500 continue to climb for bold trades on us large cap stocks in either direction trade spxl spu u or spxs Directions daily S&P 500 bull and bear leveraged ETFs Direction leveraged ETFs an investor should carefully consider a fund's investment objective risks charges and expenses before investing A funds prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about direction shares to obtain a funds prospectus and summary prospectus This call 866-476-7523 or visit directioninvestments.com A funds prospectus and summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing An investment in the funds is subject to risk including the possible loss of principal The funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors Distributor four side fund services, LLC This program is brought to you by Vista gold traded on the nyse american and tsx under the symbol vgz Welcome back folks We give the s&p's right now flat jumping around a little bit of volatility to kick things off right out of the bat and folks If you head on over the front page of TFNN You'll see right there under featured content the tiger 4x report by teddy kegs dad Teddy launching a brand new 4x report folks in the last couple weeks He's got a new issue out this week as well second issue out there You can sign up for this month alone folks. Okay, so this special only runs through july You can basically become a charter inaugural member in teddy's newsletter the tiger 4x report You can get that folks at 25 percent off forever You lock in that number of 25 percent off the 97 dollar price that gets you I believe to 72 75 I gotta do that number, uh, and we will get it done But nonetheless, let's talk to our man teddy because man, we got some action going on today teddy kegs dad Good morning. We certainly do. How's it going tommy? It's going great man. How was your fourth of july? uh, fourth of july was great and then uh, the markets opened up yesterday and what day really gets Blossom start to july and in the third corner Who I don't know where you want to kick it off, man. We got some action crew. We got some action in the currencies I'll tell you this though before we do I got so I have many friends teddy one of my best friends right now lives in switzerland Moved over there to work for jp morgan from statten island new york But so we're always talking a little bit of europe action And uh, some of my friends they already got trips planned to roam right now and they're talking about of course they are Where the euro is where the dollar is pretty remarkable moves if maybe we kick it off there Um, yeah, well, here's the interesting thing that happened over the past two days Obviously, you're you're aware of the oil sell-off the bonds have rallied huge and the tenures rallied very huge over the last two Sessions, I mean to open up like two handles higher on a on a you know For day following a three-day holiday weekend is pretty explosive with no news And also to compliment that we've had a huge dollar rally across the board from basically sunday night through yesterday Now there's this is divergence everything. This is good. It's going to be very interesting to see how this pans out now okay, because The bonds making I mean you have always everyone's starting to hear about recession Okay, because now the fed and the economists are starting they can't deny the fact that we just haven't hit that Three quarter mark or whatever four quarter mark of certain numbers hitting whatever, you know But the reality is we all know where we're at, you know, so I think it's You got to be very mindful of what's going on today. I mean the euro anyone that reads them at the forex report We hit our downside target today by went through it by a couple of pips That's key support right now We're getting close to parity in the euro, you know and the u.s. Dollar swiss is starting to gain momentum back to the upside And I think you really have to pay attention to the fact that some of these strong currencies They're getting very very weak, you know, and I think that what we're seeing right now is this little choppy period before we start To regain our trends The bond market is the very interesting part I think is amazing because you have an accelerating dollar strength with a decrease in interest rates, you know a short term So I think that's going to cause a lot of backlash And I think we're going to see some really wild swings like if you look at the us dollar swiss chart how it's looked over to Pass month and a half two months That's an incredible amount of volatility, you know for that kind of a market I would expect that we're going to see more of that kind of stuff moving into august And can you walk through maybe the listeners and viewers through teddy because you've talked about it before just how kind of some of those markets are shaped by some of the demand in terms of Basically, you know could Whether it's traders consumers, whoever you are on the market, you're searching out higher yield, right? You're going after demand kind of in the same way the crew ties in So can you walk them through just the fundamental aspect of what you just said there in terms of you have higher uh interest rates No, excuse me, you have lower interest rates at the same time that you have the dollar Actually moving higher and how that's contradictory in the long run. Usually Yes, absolutely. And the thing is it's not that at any given day they can counterbalance and go against each other They don't need they don't just trade in tandem tick for tick However, when you have this kind of explosive momentum, like I said, like where you have the treasury bonds in the 10 years up Two basis handles, you know, you have the dollar index that's exploded to new highs over the past two days You know that is a contrary move. Those are that's a rubber band being stretched So the question is is when it comes back, which one is going to get the the trend back Now, I don't see I don't see the interest rate. I mean we get the fed minutes coming up today I don't see any type of speak coming that they're going to say. Oh, well, there's Rumors of a recession looming around the corner. Maybe we're going to put the brakes on raising interest rates I don't see that happening. I mean something like that would cause a shock wave today for sure And obviously set some new trends possibly but I don't see that kind of speak coming out of uh anywhere from the fed whatsoever and I think after we get through today We remember we're coming off a three-day holiday market There's a lot of opportunity in arbitrage to sweat the elbows are kicking up. You have no retail traders You have very thin Pockets of volume. You have vacuum moves like I remember For people who weren't from the trading floor, you know how like when they go hunting for stops You know, there's always a little liquidity everywhere in the market, especially in a trading pit But once you hit that one pocket where there's a whole bunch of resting orders, whether they're countertrend You know people bailing or getting in, you know, that's when you have really erratic moves You know and especially in holiday markets those pockets stretch So it's very easy especially in an electronic world for markets to over trade And I think we have to be very careful the fact that over the past two days Especially we may have seen the markets over trade and they're going to snap back to that somewhere to their equilibrium Yeah, it's a great point for sure And so so let's let's jump to crude since we've been talking about crude for a while Maybe give the listeners or what your look is for crude because we're we're down at some pretty important levels of under 100 bucks Right. We're approaching. I was just talking about it. Whether it's the lows we had from May What do we have a low of 98 20? I got on my chart. We're at 98 12 right now in that crude talk contract What are you looking for in crude in the coming near term? Well, it's definitely quite a nice sell-off. I mean, I'm so upset I bought gas on sunday. I should have waited till today 10 bucks in that price a barrel seriously, so But I think it's just grinding its lows. I think it's but it's trying to find its bottom You know, I mean there's it's all because of the word recession that's now getting headlines, you know Before it was the news saying, you know, are we in a session in a recession? Is the fed going to say anything about it, you know and people like us have been talking about it But it wasn't confirmed if you will now that you have somewhat of a confirmation coming out I think it's a news driven slide. Okay, and you got to look at this is right in front of where their curb You know russia's still supplying oil to certain parts of the world They just put it out over the weekend They want to put the clamp down so that russia can't deliver any oil anywhere in the world period, you know So yes, what does that do to supply? Do you think that oil is going to go down to 90 or 80 bucks when we squeeze the last bit of oil being released from russia? Yeah, that's not going to happen, you know, and I think that this is that Friction point where we're going to the downside and I think you're you know, there's also a delivery nature too You know as far as supplies too And I think that that's going as that demand increases for the fall and the winter time You're going to start to see once again the market can bit up as well Yeah, and back to chairman powell I would pretty much agree with what you said in terms of you know, they're on a course right now And they took a lot of heat early on saying that they weren't going to hike Right until they saw Absolute data that they needed to and that turned out to be a big mistake But they're probably going to do the same thing here saying listen We're going to hike now and we're not going to pause hiking until we see concrete data That inflation is behind us And I at least feel it and I know you probably agree that inflation is not behind us with you time by the Data for sure because you need a real trend here folks, you know You need a real reversal not that you have you know a pause in some numbers not that you have some waning demand Right because they they got a lot of work to do well. Teddy. Thank you so much, man And we we look forward to talking next week, man, and we appreciate the time as always And by the way, I wear crocs and they even wear socks with crocs They rock it man. Whatever makes you happy rock it. We'll get you on with that man kevin as well Thanks, teddy. We'll talk to you next week. Stay tuned folks. We'll be right back Tfnn has just launched their new trading room the tiger zen hosted at discord Tfnn has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours And now they are expanding their reach with the tiger's den available to all tigers and tiger's for just one dollar for the year There's no cash or added costs when you join our community of traders in the tiger's den You can look over the shoulders of tom o' brian and the other tfnn hosts while they analyze charts during their live tiger tv programs And join an interactive trading community with hundreds of members Exchanging ideas interact with other tigers and tiger's as they share trading ideas news analysis and discuss the market action All trading day even at night and on the weekends the tiger's den at discord is accessible on mobile or tablets as well So it's always at your reach to sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders Just visit the front page of tfnn.com You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market You're going to need a crystal ball after all it's impossible to predict the future, right? 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You talk about some volatility 8 30 in the morning Getting ready for the program right 30 minutes to air time Checking out the articles of the day looking at what's going on the week ahead You have the 10 year trading at 1 2016 and folks we just gave up two thirds of a full point You just traded down what are you trading down six 24 ticks 24 ticks in an hour and a half We're right back to where you were at seven in the morning. We got the 10 year yield 2.82 percent five basis points We just climbed we're at 2.77 I think we're at 2.77 even when I talked to our man kevin hanks at about 9 15 this morning and just like that So we must have been approached in what 2.75 2.74 low 2.7s and just like that 10 basis points Interesting that happens ahead of fed day as well All right, folks and again talking to our man teddy keg stat. He does an outstanding job folks Check out the front page of tfnn. It only runs this month. You risk absolutely nothing folks You sign up on the front page of tfnn for the tiger forex report You make sure you enter code teddy 25 at checkout Okay, and i'm doing it right now to give you the exact number and it is 72 75 So that brings you down from 97 bucks to 72 and 75 cents you get 25 off It's an outstanding report folks. Uh and to give you a little glimpse of it Okay, here's a glimpse of this week's report in terms of what teddy put out for subscribers So you get action in the dollar index. He gives you as you can see breakout levels, right resistance areas trading range areas that he's looking for Extended upside target zones looking for the 30 year bond in terms of where we are euro us dollar He's got the pound dollar. He's got the dollar swiss in there Dollar yen an important one for you gold traders out there as well Aussie dollar in there new zealand dollar in there US dollar canadian dollar in there as well. He covers them all every single week He's got crude. He's got the bond in there. There's your crew contract breaking through some critical areas There's a tease for you folks That critical area on the chart that he had one oh one fifty He was talking about it folks the crew contract right now under a hundred bucks We'll see if it holds But please check it out the front page of tfnn sign up You gain access to the archives you get new issues every week you lock in 25 percent and stay tuned folks We've got basil up next and then we got our man larry pezzavento back live this week It's back as well. Stay tuned folks live programming all day. Have a great Wednesday