 Hi, my name is Leon Roeb currency trader and trading coach at trading 180.com and welcome to this week's supply and demand forests and gold fundamental and technical Analysis if you're new to the channel a warm welcome to you and if you're returning an equally warm welcome to you And don't forget to please like subscribe and share if you find the content that I provide use force free way to support the channel and get the the video ranking up so that more traders will be able to Get this quality Content and again, if you're new just a quick reminder and even if you're not new trading 180 processes combining the best of fundamental and technical analysis to make really the best trading decisions, right? So Let's get into the economic calendar and the week ahead zoom in a little bit one seconds. All right Right so trading economics and we have Some news coming out apparently on trading economics when I went to the Restore high-impact there wasn't much high-impact news as far as from our countries But there is if you go to the two-star So I included medium impact. I guess What I am what I think to be something worth watching and keep an eye on so RBA Kent speech Central bank speeches are generally something that you should want to potentially keep an eye on simply because that They I guess confirm sentiment and what the Fed potentially is thinking and doing I say the Fed but central banks are thinking and doing so They are be a Kent speech May have summer Some decent information in there same thing with Bostick speech and you've got your group meeting On that's on Monday. So a bit light on Monday Tuesday From what I can see lots of manufacturing News but I think there's nothing really in here that I'm too interested in I mean as fed pal Speeches there as well and Christine the guard speech also as well as it's going to be definitely kingly watched Wednesday you've got RBA Ellis's speech And then you've got the RBNZ the Reserve Bank of New Zealand the interest rate decision Which is expected the consensus is saying that it should they should raise half of half a percentage point 50 basis points the forecast from Trading economics pretty much saying the same and obviously they're going to be a press conference GDP growth rate is always important as well, especially for Germany That's you know, the previous was minus Point three so if they do disappoint and they have another quarter even though it's not expected to be a negative But they do have another negative then Then that is Going to be a technical recession, right? I Should I think that's the final one. Yes a final. I think I think it might actually just be Confirming well, let's see. Anyways, let's see what happens You know if they have the second quarter, then it will be a recession and you've got Christine the guard speech And why is that important really it's important because if you have rising inflation and a slowing economy pretty much That's what's known as stagflation It puts the central bank in a bit of a bit of a very big problem It gives them a massive headache as to whether they should, you know, high crates or not But they are continuing to high crates and we'll get into that a bit later Christine the guard speech Bank of Japan Governor Karuda speech FOMC minutes and lots of bank Speeches Thursday we've got GDP second estimate So again, I think we already know the second estimate on this so it's just basically confirming what we already know And the previous was from I think obviously the fourth quarter. So I think it's the same thing with With GDP with the with the German GDP. I'm not too sure 100% but I know with the Fed The the the preliminary data already came out as negative So I think the second estimate is going to be negative and it's not going to have too much Shouldn't have too much of an impact because already been priced in Um jobless claims You know employment is always worth looking at and And so Friday, we also have retail sales retail sales PCE price index right is going to be again keenly watched simply because of inflation worries, right? So the PCE price index is what the Fed looked towards as well when it comes to Um inflation and uh, you know, uh and and that data. So um some interesting market potential market moving Events if Obviously they come out better or worse than expected and much better or much worse than expected. So let's see what happens But let's get into the the charts and starting off on the dollar index The dollar index, um, it's just a measure of dollar strength against You know the major currency is like the euro the pound and the yen And uh, you know, we pretty much do a pullback if we actually look to see You know at the at the year to date what's you know gone on with the dollar We've literally just seen since the beginning of 2022 This this you know this run strength and that is again due to um the federal reserve really being ahead of the curve One of the central banks has been ahead of the curve, especially when you think about, um, The the euro for example, uh, and even the pound they're in a better position than um the uk economy So um a pullback is due and this just adds basically Confluence in case you do want to buy be a buyer of the dollar, which I am a buyer of the dollar So I'm just looking for confluences To get long and pullbacks really so, uh, let's see what happens here So you can see if prices start to turn up to the upside Then again, that would be a confirmation that the dollar was strengthening across the board against, you know, you know Currencies like the the yen and the swiss franc for example if it does pull back it just means that it's a bog and A cheaper price to get involved in buying, you know the dollar and the dollar Fundamentally is uh still fed federal reserve to plow ahead on half point Hikes undeterred by stock slump. So the central bankers view tighter financial conditions is helpful Volatile days are not an issue for the fed focus on prices. So don't count the fed federal reserve Chair Jerome Powell to ride to the rescue of a faltering stock market not yet at least so the end of cheap money is coming Um and more expensive money. Um Is is is here, right? So kanda city fed president ester george said thursday that the market route was no surprising like the central bank's repeated caution That it will that will continue raising rates to cool the hottest inflation in decades So that's really where their focus is while she acknowledges equities are having a rough week Her remarks in a cmbc interview did nothing to soften the tone set by powell on tuesday Who warned that officials seek a clear and convincing evidence that price pressures are Retreating so that's not encouraging for investors betting on imminent exercise of a fed put in Which central bank autos policy to prop up equity markets after a sharp decline? So again, the end of cheap money is coming to an end so Going back to the you know the dollar index I do think that the the dollar should want to strengthen I don't know whether it's going to turn around here Or here nobody knows For sure because I say if you do know then put all your money on that trade Nobody knows it's just a probabilities game. So I do think that at some point prices will continue to Go higher not too sure where but we've got to take chances, right? We've got to take the trades If they set up around here, obviously not taking the dollar index, but maybe the dollar yen dollar swiss And I do think that the dollar is still a buy although I do think that the upside is going to be capped on the The the dollar as other central banks are also suffering with inflation issues and may start to look to high crates So they will have to and they say they but the market will have to revalue what the dollar exchange rate will be against other currencies that are now starting to potentially look to high crates like the bank of japan surprisingly enough There's you know word on a horizon that they could become less dovish and even the the swiss franc the swiss national banks So let's see what happens I think in the short term the dollars to the buy medium to long term There are potential selling opportunities on the dollar as strange as it seems there could be and that would be more of a what's known as a convergence trade and Just a quick reminder if you want to get all that information and get really in-depth analysis the trading 180 Mentoring starts enrollment opens on the 6th and to the 10th of june and so If you are looking to join you can get access to the fundamental analysis spreadsheet Which basically plans out the strongest versus the weakest currencies But also as well you'll get to understand the currency value cycle amongst many other Tools that we use to understand why currencies that are ranked one two and three are likely to appreciate or in fact Currencies that are ranked one two and three May start to devalue right and the same thing with devaluation just because the currency is ranked six seven or eight which typically tends to be you know Devalued or depreciating There are opportunities to actually buy six sevens and eights on a revaluation ends where you're looking at buying bargain. So You know there I'll teach you all of that as well as the our great discussion room where we talk about Just trading in general As well as you know trade setups and so much information in here and As an example of the type of videos that I provide I provide daily and weekly chart analysis For the for the members, which is not available on youtube Well, the majority of it isn't anyway I might just edit a few videos here and there and put it out there on youtube to kind of help traders But generally we've got hundreds and hundreds of videos on the In the private members area and uh, yeah, so you get daily videos as well as Mentoring as well as our weekly live calls so again just uh A reminder that enrollment opens on the 6th of june and closes on the 10th of june now getting back to the charts and looking at the dollar yen Again dollar yen is coming back down into the Nice a nice demands and I was saying that that 1 to 7 area was a decent area to look for potential long trades And we could see the markets start to auction Traders would know is a bit of a ranging market And this is probably what I'm expecting to happen If not, then uh prices could come down to that one to one area Um that has been cited, but let's see what happens I do think that there are some decent buying opportunities right now If you do want to get long on the dollar providing that the fundamentals are still in place from a sell trade perspective and trying to buy the uh The yen that you've got a couple of supply zones right here and here to get involved in But generally you want to look for the highs trade around the highs and lows of auctions rather than You know the the the middle area and you'd have to really believe that the yen was a bargain at this price at these prices in order to get Long on the yen On short and the current and currency pair or believe that risk off is going to you know Be prevalent and that money will flow into the Japanese yen, but for me still buys Looking for buying opportunities Dollar swiss dollar swiss decent Zone price to come down to I say in last week. I didn't really want to buy at highs Wasn't interested in buying at highs at all and obviously there wasn't any demand there for that price for the for the dollar Swiss that's definitely seen as an expensive area. We've now created We've now created a some supply right here This was seen as a as a bargain area for the swiss franc and expensive for the u.s. Dollar Now this area here is interesting for a buy trade And a bit more of a pullback. So, um, which is what I was waiting for from last week and really, um, I was looking at the, uh, fair Moving fair values or what traders would know is moving moving averages But in fact, they're moving fair value and um understanding that This is the monthly fair value Moving fair value and really sure that I like to trade and look for trades when prices are stopped to either bounce off of that area Or below the monthly moving fair value above that is going to always be an expensive area. So, um These are trades now. This is an area where if you're interested in going long It's decent long opportunity And if you do want to go short Then that is a decent area to look for any kind of uh short trades on that dollar swiss um dollar CAD dollar CAD and um This was actually a really good trade Um, which ended up working out quite nicely Um in the private group, we ended up getting involved Some of the guys ended up getting involved right at the top Right here, which ended up being a stop hunt and uh, really nice trade for a good few hundred pips. So, uh, decent Um, and we kind of called this again, you can look at last week's uh videos We were talking about, you know going short and in and around here and in the private members group Um, this was something that I planned out a few weeks ago and prices actually, you know worked out really nicely. So, um Yeah, let's uh from from a from a buy-in and selling perspective is I suppose a supply and demand perspective We have uh now a bit of a new uh supply zone there and um looking for potential Buyers if you're looking to buy the dollar, um if you're looking to buy the Canadian dollar I think that's a decent area to look for any kind of a short trades as well I do think as much as the dollar is um quite dominant I do think the Canadian dollar is competing against it. So we should enter into uh an auction between this 137 area and The 127 is probably down at the the round number area. So I do think that the the upside is going to be capped on this. So decent uh short trades if you're looking for any uh A trade on this currency pair um Looking at the New Zealand dollar US dollar and uh commodity currencies at the moment haven't been doing so great But this week, you know, you get you get in a bit of a pullback on that New Zealand dollar. Um, again looking at You know this being an expensive area I was always uh, you know, of course, I'm not really trading this pair anyway, but um You know, you should always be cautious and wait for you know, if you can wait for larger pullbacks Because that represents a better value But I can I'm going to get rid of this uh supply zone to buy the uh if you're buying the US dollar and I think now there is um demand starting to occur Here and in fact, please drag it all the way up So there is demand coming into uh coming into play But I think that the path of resistance should be still to the downside as the uh the dollar In a risk-off environment as well and it's all about risk-off, but there are definitely uh problems when it comes to You know, for example, the russia ukraine war, uh, china slowed down and lockdowns and covid and many other things inflation problems and uh really the the question to be asked is who's the the dog would The least fleece who's the best of the worst? So I think out of the two it's hard to tell but I think the dollar being the more dominant Economy I think should um if you're looking for any kind of short trades, um should kind of prevail But there is obviously demand coming in here. So that is a decent opportunity to get long if you do Feel like that is the bottom Pound dollar so pound dollar again was due a pullback. I think you know selling at this area right here This one two four, uh, again was it was quite expensive And uh, there was I think it was a decent trade setup this week On the pound dollar into this area. I think it ended up being um A bit of a CPR. I went over it on wednesday's private members Group call, but um, but yeah as we see right now I think anything in this zone is going to be decent very decent for a potential Cell trade and I do think that there is Maybe a little just above it I'm not going to I'm not going to stretch it, but this area here This area the uh one two five fifty to one two six fifty I think is decent for a for a short trade. Um, and I do think that the dollar should um Be stronger than the pound. I appreciate over the pound um, because Really the uh, you know, the uk's inflation rate surges to a foot a year high and cost of living squeezed precious governments And bank and the bank of England to act in shocks hitting Britain harder than most advanced economies, right? So um in the uk Um, you know inflation is um really really hitting um The public and I guess there's a there's a cost of living crisis. Um That is going on which potentially could um send I guess the uk economy potentially into a recession sooner than other economies, but um, but yeah, so Unless the bank of England really get a grip on rising inflation Then um, then I think uh, the the economy is is going to be a bit worse for where like I said sooner than um, some of the other economies so um the dollar The the u.s. I think are in a in a better position than then the bank of uh, then the bank of england and the uk economy hence the reason why you're seeing This starts to happen. Yes, they are hiking rates But as I always you know saying you probably heard me say this before it's a dog with the least fleets Who's the best of the worst? So I think for me my bias is still to continue shorting to the downside Let's see what happens in and around this area To look for short trades if you are looking at long trades, this is actually a decent area to look for the the pound the pound buy in that zone Moving on to the euro dollar so euro dollar again The dollar kind of pulling back Any supply zones decent areas to look for potential short trades the 106 to 106 50 areas a decent area to look for short trades the euro Is looking to continue to hike rates We have ecb visco says july perhaps right time for first hike And again, this is to stop really um or to try to Prevent inflation getting out of hand and and really the euro as well from uh from going You know too far to the downside right because what compounds the inflation is a devalued currency So they need to try to stem The the euro from going lower and compounding inflation problems and devaluing too much because there was talk of a parity A one to one euro two dollar peg so When you have When you have that it's not great for the euro And actually it's better for the for the dollar because the dollar is expensive and A An appreciating currency should have the effect of Stemming inflation so at the moment, I think the the the dollar is winning the currency war and um, I think the European Union European central bank the ecb have to do something about the devalued Euro so they're going to talk up the euro But for me, it's still shorts so any you know shorting opportunities around here if prices do come up to the 108 I think that's going to be a very nice area to look for Short trades. I think the the the euro will be a buy if the conflict in ukraine And between ukraine and russia do start does start to um Resolve itself, but it doesn't look like that's happening anytime soon. So continued shorts for me Moving on to the australian dollar us dollar and the australian dollar us dollar Again commodity currency similar to the new zealand dollar us dollar Haven't been doing well against the the us dollar, but I do think that potentially there is a buy Here somewhere, but I probably really want to see Prices move to the upside You know a bit stronger take out a level of supply before moving back down I do think that that might be the the bottom for the australian dollar Um And the the the rba are looking to high crates. So, um, this potentially could be a decent buy Not a pair that i'm interested in but uh, if you are interested in it I do think that that demand zone hasn't really you know Showing itself to be a strong area of demand just yet that supply zone sitting right on top of it But if prices do you know go higher taking out that level of supply then the pull back into that area I think that's going to be decent for a buy if you are looking to buy the australian dollar versus the us dollar Fundamentally doesn't not really the best pair for me. Um, and if I am looking to buy it then Um, I'm probably going to buy the a dollar over the australian dollar on in a risk-off environment um looking at the ozzy yen The ozzy yen, um is establishing again a bit of a risk, uh Let's say risk-off, but we're on a risk-off environment But we did establish a bit of demand and I hesitate to put this demand zone here, but Put it there anyway It's not it's not really typically how it should be drawn But there is you know demand there, especially on like a lower time frame like the uh, like the one hour for example Or intraday any intraday time frames. There is some demand there prices have moved Several hundred pips from this low to this high so there's about 300 pips moved So uh from a daily demand zone perspective, it's not the greatest zone But um, I think it's moved enough to be able to you know, if you want to be, um, you know trade the 87 area 88 um to 87 50 Zone on an intraday Trade then that is actually I think that's a decent I would say um From a uh buy or sell perspective Typically you would want to buy the Japanese yen in a risk-off scenario But I do think that the Australian dollar for me is is is Presenting itself to be a bargain down at these uh lows So my bias is still to the upside buying the commodity currencies in a risk-off um environment Is is my bias, uh, so yeah, let's see what happens there if you do want to buy the Japanese yen um Probably have to buy up at the 92 area the 92 33 areas before looking at any kind of uh short trades and gold finally gold Gold did bounce off of this uh this demand zone All right, I think gold is still a buy um, especially when you consider You know inflation worries and um So yeah, I think that's where we are when it comes to gold There was an interesting article that was talking about the Bank of England Gold trades a rare discount in the sign of central banks selling So gold and central banks of all traded below $1 Traded $1 below london benchmark rally in the dollar has put emerging economies under pressure So gold stored at the bank of england has been trading at unusually low price in a sign at central banks Maybe shedding some of their holdings, which is uh, which is quite strange My question would be um, who's who's doing the buying? Who would they say who are they selling to because it doesn't look like inflation is going anyway? away anytime soon, so For me my bias would still be to the upside. I think gold is a bargain bounced off of that 18 One uh 1800 level 1800 level and I do think if prices come back down to this zone That I think that's going to be a very nice area to look for potential Buying opportunities intraday But um, the the one thing that is I guess keeping gold Prices down is the fact that the the dollar is Still appreciating so as the dollar appreciates typically what you should see is gold, you know d value, right? But it's if if the dollar starts to d value Then you should see gold, you know go up and if it starts to d value as well as um, you know risk off Increase inflation increasing etc. Then this is going to look like an absolute bargain. So Interesting piece on the on the bank of England selling gold, but I think From as a as a as a safe haven play it should still be Decent buy, but if again if you do want to be a buyer That was the opportunity. I think it was what was on monday if you do want to be a seller of gold Still continue to get short then this area here is actually really nice A nice setup for a potential short as well as just the above zone as well. Anyways guys That's it for this week. I hope you have a great trading week and take care until the next video