 This is covering the spread here are your hosts Jim Saunas and Dr. Ed Fang What is going on everybody welcome on in to the covering the spread that's right here on the fan dual podcast network in number fire Com we're today. We are previewing week 16 of the NFL and also talking some MBA futures with the seasons tipping off tonight Who better to discuss those two topics that drew dinsik at whale underscore cap around Twitter We're gonna have him on to discuss both the NBA and the NFL and get you set for the week that lies ahead My name is Jim Saunas. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire comm joined here as always by dr. Ed Fang you can find his work over at the power rank comm Ed we have NBA tip-off tonight. There are bowl games We had the college football championship games the playoff was announced NFL had the Rams and the Steelers losing his big favorites. There's a couple of things going on. How you doing? I'm doing great. I mean, I feel like there's so many things going on, right? I mean the thing that sticks out of my mind was Tampa Bay's first half performance I kind of talked them up about it and the numbers don't like this offense But I think they have a high upside they go out and have zero points and 60 yards in the first half So yeah, I tweeted that out That turned out better in the second half as they came back and beat Atlanta in that game But you know, just I you know, if anyone had both money lawn on The Jets and the Bengals to win, you know, good for you No, you can you don't need to listen to this show. You're set like At that point, please listen to the show. Please continue. You know, you don't need to but we'd appreciate it with the Bucks thing I had used them in daily fantasy because they're facing the Falcons figure it's shootout And I was hosting I was doing hosting duties for the the fan to a world fantasy football championship So I had to be like at my computer on air and like having this chipper bright attitude Meanwhile, I've got Tom Brady. I had a lot of Mike Evans exposure And they're getting shut out by the freaking Falcons at halftime and it's like, oh, here's your update Here's how things are going meanwhile I'm just sitting here stewing and then in the late games because things have got better outside of that Tony Powered us great. And then the late game starting Cam Acres gets hurt. It's like, oh boy. Yeah, like It was it was rough. I like this massive headaches. There was a bunch of news right before lock. So like The the Bucks contributed to said headache in a big way. Thankfully it was fine by the end but like right my goodness and like Just the Rams like I I have tried so many times throughout my life to back Jared golf to to talk him up to be enthusiastic about him And then he goes out every time I do that and just kind of gives me the middle finger and I'm like, you know I respect that at this point. He's at least committed to the bit of making me look stupid And he goes out and torches Tampa Bay's defense, right excellent And you know, they're past their past offenses higher than they've ever been in my numbers Yeah, so it's interesting and yeah, I definitely have more to say about them later in the show Absolutely. So we'll be talking plenty of NFL week 16 later on as bench We're gonna drew dinsic on to preview that and also talk some NBA futures find drew on Twitter at whale underscore capper check out The deep dive podcast is also doing videos for matchbook. So make sure you check that we had Fabian summer on earlier He does those as well. So lots of good stuff stuff from Drew Make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread to get our podcasts as they go live each and every week Only covering the spread for this week because of the holidays, but next week. We of course have I don't know what we're doing next week Since we have the college football playoff and the NFL will figure that out later on either way Make sure you are subscribed so you get the podcast as they go live each and every week But before we get to drew we got to go back to last week and go through our Recommendations both for college football and the NFL because this is our lone podcast this week Adam Kramer had himself a good week In the college side, so let's break that down now Covering the past So last week here on covering the spread on the college side We had Adam Kramer on to preview the college football championship games by Adam on Twitter at kegs and eggs and check out his work over at Bleacher Report and before the championship games Adam was on San Jose State plus six and a half against Boise State and Didn't need the points. They won that one thirty four to twenty so an easy win there for Adam for San Jose State He also had Tennessee plus 13 and a half against Texas A&M It closed at 13 and a half. They did keep it close in the third quarter It was a four-point game right before the fourth quarter began But Texas A&M finished up with 17 unanswered points to get the win 34 to 13 and get the cover there in the big 10 Adam said he had a lean towards Northwestern plus 20 and a half in the under I really really hope that Adam felt strongly enough to bet that one by Saturday because it closed at 16 and a half and Once it was announced that Ohio State would not have like 20 different guys including Chris Alave close at 57 the total there, but Northwestern covered the the under hits so hopefully Adam talked himself into that one by Saturday Northwestern Kept Justin Fields in check to get the cover their offense Shockingly contributed nothing in terms of the total So hopefully Adam got that one But like it was so frustrating to watch that stupid stupid stupid Northwestern offense after that first drive It was so frustrating. Yeah. Well, I mean Yeah, it was not unexpected but still frustrating. Yeah I mean it was such an interesting game to me because I don't I mean props in Northwestern's defense because they've been great all Year, but I don't know if it was the defense that really held Justin Fields back I'm I really wonder about that thumb because he just yeah, you know There was just a lot of throws that that weren't there and on the other hand, you know, I would have never expected Ohio State to run for that many Yards as they did against Northwestern's defense and and yes Northwestern covered But you know, there was a play at the end of that game that could have tipped it In the in favor of Ohio State So, you know, you're watching that game in the first half and you're talking about oh my god This might be one of the craziest upsets. This is finally the chaos that we've all been wanting to see happen And then it slowly got worse and worse wasn't that slow It was it was a pretty quick death like once once it started to turn once Trey sermon got going that puppy was toast Like you knew because like Northwestern wasn't gonna score points like I knew that once Ohio State had a three-point lead I gave up all hope and I'm not like there was a ton of hope we get with but like once they got the three-point lead the game was over and Watch like I think it's Obviously you want to build your offense around stopping or defense around stopping the pass It's so much more demoralizing as a fan to watch a team right do what Trey sermon did So obviously that does not change team building but from a morality perspective, right like a morale perspective It's so Draining to watch Trey sermon break off 20 yard runner to 20 yard run I hated it. I hated every second of it for sure And I had a Peter Bukowski on my podcast on the football analytics show He covers the Packers Yeah for the locked-on network and we were talking about exactly that because they've built their defense around stopping the pass Which is even more of the appropriate strategy in the NFL But I have friends who are Packers fans and they hate watching that defense Yeah, you know sit there and complain about not being able to stop the run, which is you know, basically true Yeah It is the right strategy in the long run, but it's painful for fans Yeah, it's just it's like death by a thousand cuts and I'm not not a fan But like again smart thing just it's so painful Adam was on Clemson minus 10 and a half over Notre Dame. It closed at minus 11 and Pretty easy win again here for Adam. He they were up 24 to 3 at halftime cruise to a 24 point win So good read by Adam there just a good week for him as well again Hopefully he talked himself into the Northwestern one by kickoff your college recommendation last week was Oregon plus three and a half Against USC in the Pac-12 championship game once again, no points necessary Oregon is up 31 17 at one point USC did score to make it a seven point game But Oregon hung on they got the win outright USC did win the yardage battle they had turnovers break against them But like Ed if you're getting points and you win, you know by seven You've got to feel pretty good about that one regardless of what the yardage might say. Yeah Honestly after we did the show. I didn't feel good about it It felt a little odd I mean, you know USC is a type of team that has talent and as much as I don't think Clay Helton gets the most out of them Slowvis has been a pretty good quarterback. You did mention the yardage And it was interesting. I mean I usually I usually check what what Bill Connolly has and he I think he had USC covering I think he had them by three and a half Yep, then did I mention that on the show? Yeah, yeah for me So anyways, I didn't I didn't feel particularly good about it and probably got a little lucky to win But I'm not complaining. I'll take it. Yeah, we've had plenty of bad luck this year We'll take the good luck when it happens. Why not? And then and another thing I ended up a little bit later I didn't talk about it on the show, but but I took the Alabama, Florida over 74 half partially because Adam liked that I think we asked him Richard Johnson on my show liked it and then drew drew Martin did a video on the power and QG channel That they liked it as well. So so that was that was another nice one So it was good It was good college football weekend and it helped the Devontae Smith for Heisman campaign also good for Adam He has a faux post up on that and bleacher report, too I mean obviously Najee Harris like kind of stole the show a bit there, but still just give it to all three of them Right, so it's gonna be a situation like the Yankees that one year where they split the vote and Justin Morneau, I think it was one the MVP which I was ecstatic about Justin Morneau is the best ever So I was happy everyone else less so on the NFL side of things You and I were both on the chiefs minus three against the Saints And that was when it looked like Taysum Hill would start and then Friday morning just kidding Breeze started so it closed at minus two and a half But part of the rationale for betting it at minus three at least in my part Was that I thought the chiefs could cover that number even if Breeze start they almost did they were up ten late But the same scored a 206 left to make it a three-point game So if you got it at three as we did it wound up being a push Hopefully you didn't hear the podcast until Sunday morning got it at two and a half got the the cover there But I think that like the rationale there was sound Love thinking that they could cover that number even against Breeze played out that way Breeze looked a little bit rusty for sure. I think it was overplayed how rusty he was He was better than people are talking about him this week But I think the rationale behind that bet was good and you know, I'll take a push there given the way things broke from an injury perspective Yeah, for sure. And you know, I mean there wasn't my home's fumble that gave New Orleans pretty short field that that helped New Orleans come back. So I Don't know. I feel like given the circumstances with the changing injury information and getting a push on that I'm okay with that. I had bad injury news break against me for the other bet I had this week as well That was the Dolphins minus one and a half against to England and I thought the line was being influenced by the injuries on Miami But I was willing to bet on some of their guys playing because Devontae Parker and Jacim Grant practiced on Wednesday Mike Kasicki practiced Thursday. I was like cool. We're recording now. Mike Kasicki just practiced Somebody's gonna play Parker and Kasicki actually were expected to start on Saturday night You got the Adam Schefter the shifty bomb at you know, 1147 or whatever it is or he sounded tonight He said they're gonna play but something changed in warm-ups and all three wound up being inactive So I was very nervous about that recommendation It's still closed Miami minus two and the defense did its job and the offense did enough So Miami won 22 to 12 to cover pretty easily that could have put me in a pretty bad spot You know with breeze playing and with the Dolphins guys not playing but I feel good about how those were diagnosed Getting a win despite bad news breaking against me feels pretty good So I you know, I can't complain too much. I'd like you said like you know some weird things But I will take the positives when they come for sure. Yeah, absolutely and and appreciate it Yeah, absolutely. Yeah, we'll take it when it happens. I'll take some good luck No matter what we're gonna into week 16 and talk some NBA with Drew Dimczyk in just one second The first basketball is back and this season NBA Hall of Famer Charles Barkley has joined the fan dual team Jolly old St. Chuck is giving away over 30 million dollars in gifts to all fan dual customers Including free fantasy entries, free site credit for risk-free bets and Charles Barkley odds booths From the opening tip to the final buzzer There are so many ways to bet on fan dual sportsbook this NBA season If you sign up today, fan dual will let you place your first bet risk-free. That is right They will give you up to $1,000 back if you don't win and when you do win Fan dual pays you your winnings in as little as 24 hours with the NBA season here now is a perfect time to give fan Dual a shot must be 21 plus and present in New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Illinois West Virginia the list goes on Indiana, Colorado, Iowa or Tennessee First online real money wager only site credit is non withdrawable and expires in 14 days Restrictions apply see sportsbook.vandual.com for details a gambling problem in Colorado call 1-800-522-4700 In Iowa call 1-800 bets off in Indiana 1-800-9 with it in New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Illinois 1-800 gambler in Tennessee call the Tennessee Red Line 1-800-889 9789 or in West Virginia 1 800 gambler Net let's bring on Drew Dinsick now to preview week 16 in the NFL and also talk some NBA you can find him on Twitter at Whale underscore capper also check out his deep dive podcast the anti-molitor and check out his work over at Matchbook as well a Lot to go through with Drew to get you set for what should be a fun week of sports Covering the present Let's bring Drew Dinsick back into covering the spread to preview week 16 and talk some NBA as well Drew It's the open night of the NBA. So I appreciate you taking the time. How you doing today? I'm it's it's incredible to be back with you This is a great day NBA tips off to night and it's a weird feeling because it's almost like In this so suddenly upon us that the season is back, but at the same time. It's late It's Christmas and we haven't seen any NBA yet So it feels like we're getting a late start, but it's also. Yeah, so yeah, this is a very very disconcerting and very confusing You know the way that the sports calendar has worked out this year, but happy that they're having it That they're they're gonna pull this off and can't wait to see some action Well, I gotta ask you about that though because usually when the NBA like transactions are going down You have time because it's summer, you know, obviously there's other stuff going on. There's tennis, etc But like it's not NFL season, which it was this year How tough was it for you to kind of balance that because like that's that's a lot on your plate to have to Make adjustments for for player movement while also Not disregarding the NFL side of things hundred percent true And a lot was lost in the mix a lot for sure I saw a couple of Preseason games and did some double takes like wait what guys there With they're using him that way like how did that I didn't hear that was coming So there's been a lot of surprises through the preseason and I think that they're gonna continue to be surprises once we get to Ceasing this game action. I mean even as recent as recently as like what just a few minutes ago They announced, you know that the Warriors are gonna start Wiseman at center tonight And that completely changes that handicap in terms of what each team would try to do offensively and You know, it's it's it's going to be a learning curve a steep learning curve to figure out what these teams Intend to do as we get into the season and you know anytime, you know Even as we saw in the NFL, you have a shortened preseason. You have Limited expectations for every single rookie out there And you know again even in the NFL like all those rookies played a full college season last year, right? All those rookies had a full like, you know working up to through the draft process And it was relatively normal for them. Their only disruption was really not not an extended mini camp, right? Well, you know, these guys They, you know, their season got canceled in the middle of the season There was no March Madness. The draft process was total chaos You know, they land on all these teams their roles and responsibilities are completely undefined So, you know that anyone any of these teams out of the gate that I think are expecting to lean on Contributions from rookies better, you know think twice because I really struggle like, you know, Wiseman may end up being an amazing pro How in the world he's going to be able to defend the pick-and-roll against the Kevin Durant led offense is just I don't I can't see it It's just too hard for a rookie to do that and you know, they're throwing him right into the fire So we'll see Do you feel like you have enough information Do you feel confident enough in your information right now to feel As aggressive at the start of NBA is usually what are you thinking about scaling back a bit this year and trying to, you know Play catch up as it goes along. Yeah, I think because I've been I I think the way that the schedule has worked out. I am perfectly fine Information collecting for the first couple weeks. Yeah in a normal year You I feel like I have a little bit of an advantage early because of all the things you mentioned I spend a lot of time in the summer kind of building out my my expectations. My priors are relatively robust This year is not one of those this year I'm kind of taking what I had this sort of a frankenstein number on these teams from the bubble If they played in the bubble, you know from the transactions that we you know, we know are meaningful And I'm gonna have to be pretty soft In terms of adjusting my priors here because I don't know that they're that much better than the market They may be worse than the market. They are there may be people who haven't been betting NFL for the last 15 weeks Who are very very tuned in to who's gonna be good and bad in this NBA season? And I don't want them to take my lunch money for you know for the first couple weeks here So I'm fine, you know scaling back aggressiveness early on here So Joe, I didn't want to ask you you talked about these rookies potentially making a contribution When I looked at the NFL NFL when I looked at the NBA draft I kind of thought it was one of the weakest I had seen In in quite a bit. Uh, there was a kid at florida state that went like fifth or something like that and and and just I mean all through the all through the two rounds. It didn't look like there were too many difference makers with that Did you would you agree with that 100 percent 100 percent? And I think that is a completely fair assessment that the talent level was low this year. This was a bad draft Um, I mean just you know just the very very top of the board. I think you can you can make that assessment I don't know that anthony edwards is going to be impactful player in the in this league He may be down the road But you know what they're going to ask him to do in minnesota from you know from day one You know, I'm not 100 sure that uh that that makes them a better team I'm not 100 sure that he's going to see a ton of you know a ton of playing time early on Just because his role is a little challenging. Similarly, uh, as we mentioned with wiseman, I'm shocked that they're They're going to start him at center this year. Lamello ball is probably not going to see starter minutes out of the gate here for the charlotte hornets But still not expecting much of a contribution and I think really where this manifests in terms of trying to define an edge if you're ready into the rookie of the year market I think you can look for some long shots and try to populate a portfolio of You know, some guys that really you know, maybe some guys that may have a meaningful role For some of the teams that you would consider contenders You know, those guys will get some exposure. They'll get some run. They have a ton of support. They have good coaching staff You know, that's the profile. I think that fits a rookie of the year candidate this year Not necessarily someone in a normal year who you might say well This guy's going to get a ton of usage on a bad team So he's going to just rack stats and he's going to clearly stand out I don't know that there's going to be a guy like that this year So I think it's fair to look for a little bit of a long shot in the rookie of the year market So let's talk a bit about some futures here. Um Fandall sportsbook has playoff odds posted for every single team You can bet to make the playoffs or to miss the playoffs Any numbers here that stand out to use being advantageous either in the positive or the negative sense based on what you're seeing right now There was a couple and it's funny the you sent me that question And I looked the first team I looked for was the hawks because that's the number that I'm the farthest off market and it's not close Oh, wow, okay People seem to think the hawks are like this above 500 team and that is a huge adjustment relative to how They played last year, especially defensively like they added a number of pieces to help You know help make their offense a little bit more Um consistent, I guess, but uh, this is team still number one, you know issue with them is um their ability to defend Especially the any any any reasonably strong ball handler. They struggle That's comes into into play in crunch time situations if they're you know, if you're in an end game situation Um, it you know, and you have a decent coach and a decent ball handler You're going to be able to craft exactly the right play to really take advantage of that team and and really Put them in a tough spot. Um didn't see odds though for the hawks to make to miss the playoffs I would I would guess that you're probably going to get plus money there Just because of how weak the east is and because of how bullish the market is in general on that team But I think that that that one's one that would have stood out. Um, some of the other ones that are interesting to me the uh, the I guess I'm I'm a little warmer on the chicago bowls than the market, which I didn't realize until doing my numbers a little more clearly I don't mind taking a long shot on them at plus 270 to make the playoffs That's a team that I could absolutely see Stealing the eights you in the east now that they have a little bit of stability at the coaching position And the way that they've looked in the preseason at least it looks like some of the younger players have taken meaningful step forward Meaningful steps forward The one though that clearly stood out to the yes is the houston rockets at plus 112 Again, I do not Agree with the market that this team is on the verge of being blown up The way that they're lying under, you know, they're lined as an under a sub 500 team and Honestly, the way that they've pivoted their roster on the fly Um, you know moving uh west brook for john wall and the way that he's played so far in this preseason has been impressive Uh christian wood is a very nice young player to add to their starting rotation Um, and you know james harden For all of the fanfare for all of the stories for all of the clicks that are driven by where is he going to go next? Is it brooklyn? Is it philly? He's on the move. He's leaving houston. He's unhappy here I don't know that I buy any of that that a lot of that seems Speculative and I could entirely see just just the way his contract is structured just the way that You know houston is rostered right now They're not going to you know, they're not going to move him for 30 cents on the dollar and that's basically what any trade in season this year for him would amount to Um, so I think it's pretty likely that uh, you know that harden plays out a full season with this team And they're going to be as good if not a little bit better than they were last year Depending on how well they fit with the new coaching coaching scheme there So, uh, I think the rockets are absolutely in the mix for the west still and the fact that you can get them Plus money to make the final eight teams Was surprising Yeah, I mean I gotta think the probability of harden moving is is baked into that price, right? Yeah, and honestly if I had to back calculate, what is that probability? It's it's looks like certainty It looks like like in general like on average I would guess you I would guess that that number reflects the market thinks Over 80 chance that he moves right in season and if I wait at 50 50 Then my number for houston is um 40 wins So you just pulled it up on the fly right there? No, no, I did this exercise. I was literally like like how do I get this low? Like what do I have to do? Like how many games does harden have to miss for this team in order to get down to you know 33 wins is the generally the total that I bet into last week and um, yeah to get that number I basically had to Assume that he missed 80 of the rockets games this season Um, and if he misses 50 of the rockets games this season Then I have this as about a 36 win team, which is still over their total Um, and if he stays and plays the full season then Then this is just a bad price in general Fascinating. Let's look at the top of the mba. The Lakers are plus 270 to repeat And then you have the next tier of the bucks nets And clippers What do you think about those odds and you know, can the bucks like Actually challenge the Lakers in the playoffs Show up in the playoffs. Yeah, I mean that's the million dollar question I don't want to give them too much of a pass for last year. It was It was quite a letdown not just the way that they played the end of playoffs and that miami series specifically, but really the whole restart they were underwhelming and A lot of that. I think you can hang on coach budinholzer He is a good regular season coach and he is a poor in series Game by game manager in terms of adjusting his team in terms of Fleshing out his rotations in a way that gives the bucks the advantage in a playoff series If they're going up a team against a team that is close to or even in the ballpark of Same talent level and it was disappointing to see the bucks underachieved last year And i'm not going to get involved this year at this price at least until we get some sense of how You know, the new system will fit with drew holiday coming in and losing quite a lot of depth on that team I still like the core. I still like the bones of that that squad It's still the most talented team in the eastern conference if they can pull it together But that was such a brutal letdown from them last year It's gonna, you know, I was that was one of those you burn your hand on the stove And you know, you learn not to touch the stove again to a degree for me So I may be watching the bucks win their first title and not involved from a future standpoint What happened last season? I think because I definitely like bucks futures when we were talking about the playoffs And you definitely get burned but I but I feel like this is a team that when I start running numbers a month from now They're going to be eight points better than mba average and yeah ever and ahead of everyone else, right? Yeah, they are They are and I guess the only And I and I agree with you. They're probably going to be your one seed They're probably gonna My numbers are probably going to have value on them all freaking year along again And I don't know if i'm going to get involved. I guess the one thing I can say specific to price Okay, when when you're coming into any of these futures markets and you're going to make some futures plays You have to think about it not as okay I'm going to predict the winner. I'm going to throw a dart and pick pick a 50 to one and And and cross my fingers that they win you should be looking at this as these are dynamic prices They're going to change week in week out month in month out as we You know as we matured through the season and as you get a better idea of you know What the playoff picture is going to look like how the how specific seeding will impact Series matchups and things like that and so in that in that mindset You have to look at these prices as we tip off and say is this the best price I'm ever going to see on the Lakers at plus 270 I would say no I would say that even though they ought to be favored and they probably will win again My I you know my assumption that they're going to come out of the gate here and go scorched earth on the league For the first month of the season after how short their layoff was Um after you know, how little they have to prove now that they won a title I would guess that almost certainly come valentine's day early march Maybe this team is down in the standings fifth, you know fourth fifth sixth and they'll flip the switch at some point and you know, they're they're Season wins price reflects this to a degree Certainly, they're not you know a 50 ish win team at full strength They are way better than that, but I don't know that you're going to get you know 100% from especially the you know LeBron and ad throughout the duration of the season And it's not smart to do that. So I don't blame them But I would tell you that right now at plus 270 that Lakers price Is you know, it it reflects that they're going to try hard out of the gate And I think almost certainly you can try to target an entry at 350 maybe four to one And I think and I would advise anyone to do that who's planning on building out a portfolio of mba futures Similarly the bucks price at plus 550 that to me implies yannis isn't going to get hurt Period, we know it and there's always a chance of that. There is a decent You know, there's a decent chance that you know, given the compressed schedule They do a little bit of load management with yannis this year that wouldn't be You know, that wouldn't be surprising to me And I could think you could probably find a better entry price on the bucks than plus 550 The six to one price for the nets to me that implies that That this team may get a third superstar It implies that these guys will find their roles and responsibilities without any question Pretty early in the season. I don't know that those are fair assumptions Similarly the plus 650 for the clippers That implies that that this team Excuse me that implies that this team is as good as they were last year, which I have a huge question I did not love their offseason. They did not address the number one issue with the squad, which was They have difficulty protecting the rim the lackluster performance We saw from them in that nugget series and the chemistry issues that exist with this team. I think are still real So overall the top of the board looks easy to avoid as we start this season I'm probably never going to bet the nets or the clippers just because I don't love the way those teams are composed But I think you can get better prices on all acres in the bucks later on this season And that's a good lesson to apply to any future spending is to you know, ask yourself is this the best price you'll get That's something you've talked about every time we've had Iwani It's just a good practice no matter whether it's the NBA at the beginning of the year NFL, etc etc ask yourself Is it the best number I'll get but also is it good enough value to lock up bankroll for that much time too? So NBA tipping off tonight should be a pretty fun season. We'll see how things go there We also going to talk some NFL because it is NFL week number 16 some big playoff games Coming up this week starting off on saturday. We got the dolphins and the raiders my boy Unfortunately marks mariota back in the driver's seat for the raiders here the dolphins two and a half point favorites total 47 and a half and mariota played well thursday, but Some some rough throws in there still we have a large sample on him as the starter How are you viewing this raiders team? If we assume the marcus mariota starts and set a derrick car on saturday I actually give them a decent upgrade Given this matchup and it's Your points are completely fair. We know who mark we know who mariota is we know what his stealing is We know what his limitations are But something about the way he was operating the john gruden offense was exciting I have to say The chargers defense didn't play great on thursday night. They're not a great defense, but they're good And this is a little bit of a step up in competition for sure. I mean the dolphins, especially their past defense has been outstanding this year But it's still it's still difficult for me to see that the dolphins are going to be totally able to shut down sort of the dynamic rushing that You know mariota brings to the table If this were derrick car And he was you know, if they were planning on we're going to drop back and throw it 50 times and you know Hopefully that you know rugs is 100 and he can get separation from these outstanding cornerbacks and you know Waller has a little bit of a mismatch. We'll get him involved You know, then i'm a little less bullish on the raiders opportunity to score points in this one But I do think that this sets up fairly well as a shootout And I can see mariota really, you know, do having a decent shot here down the stretch to audition for Either a starting job next season and or just the opportunity to compete for one in camp and you know credit to gruden for coaching him up and kind of You know that some of the telltale stuff that he struggled with in tennessee. I thought, uh, you know, he did a nice job improving in that spot start against the And it wasn't a start I guess but that spot performance against the chargers So i'm a little uh, i'm a little optimistic that he can do something fun here down the stretch and I think this total is kind of insane Silly low for a raiders game because his raiders defense is not capable of stepping up their performance at all And realistically they should have conceded even more points than they did to the chargers and This is a decent get right spot for tuha who's had a rough go of it as a rookie So if i'm going to make any play on this one, I would consider I would consider the raiders if it got to three Or I would just look for an overplay Yeah, and and mariota, uh, you certainly you certainly get a lot of help when you're throwing a darin waller, so That's true makes makes life a lot easier. Let's move on to the next game. We have indianapolis at pittsburgh I'm seeing jim says the cults are now one and a half point favorite after Pittsburgh kind of embarrassed themselves on on monday night. We got a total of 40 four and a half Pittsburgh offense is not good And they they showed that on monday night And indy still has a shot to win the afc south. So what are you seeing in this game? Yeah, this one's a really tough handicap and this was an easy one to scratch in terms of trying to get involved financially I don't really know what to expect out of the Steelers team anymore I did not really think that they were going to win convincingly last night in a way that I was willing to lay the points with that team Um, but the market was that thing got bet up from 12 and a half to 14 So people were expecting, uh, you know a bounce back performance from the Steelers And it didn't materialize because ben raffles burger pretty clearly is not the same player we've seen from years past um either the You know the wear and tear of what they've asked him to do in terms of how many passes He's had to throw week in week out as wearing him down to where he's not as effective. He's not as accurate We know obviously they're dealing with a number of drop issues From the cold weather the last couple of games, but uh, that wasn't the problem last night It wasn't the drop sees there was a quite a lot of You know him putting his wide receivers in bad positions and or air mailing passes Underthrowing passes just a lack of accuracy not going through his progressions and reading the defense. Well, there was a lot of problems Um, and I'm not sure you fixed that on a short week to be honest I have never been especially high on the Indianapolis Colts. I have a lot of the same feelings about rivers as I have about raffles burger at this point Um, I don't think he can really run a dynamic offense either But this piece going up against the Pittsburgh defense that is so down so many men and has really You know ben asked to do a lot over the last couple of weeks And uh, they're obviously pretty worn down And if you get a solid performance here out of the Indianapolis Colts offensive line And they're rushing attack and they can dictate the way this game goes Pittsburgh's in a little bit of trouble here And I'm I have a decent amount of ravens exposure from midseason at some very nice prices And I'm staring at this Pittsburgh meltdown in shock and awe Because if they lose to the Colts and the Colts went out if they lose to the Browns the Browns went out Um, entirely reasonable that the ravens find themselves on the outside looking in at the playoffs here Which is just mind blowing because it's an expanded field and they could have 11 wins. So Um, at this point, I'm just crossing my fingers that the Steelers somehow some way pull out this victory They did it last year against the Colts. I don't know if you remember that game But adam venetary missed some uh, some critical kicks late on that one that sealed the deal for pittsburgh self Was that the game that uh, briset got hurt in? That's the one. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. He got a knee in that one and brian hoyer came in in relief And uh, almost led the Colts to victory, but it was not to be Um, brian hoyer, that's great. Uh, did you buy back on the ravens like right before all the covid stuff hit? Was that the timing on when you bought back in on them? I was pre cowboys game. So basically the way it was basically Yeah, they were they had they had just lost to the Steelers Post Thanksgiving They were playing the cowboys that game got delayed till Tuesday and it was basically like, okay They can win these last five games. They were 18 to 1 to win the afc Um, and I figured okay if they round themselves into form This is going to be a dangerous team that no one wants to play And they may be the dangerous team that no one has to play Right Unfortunate the way that has broken down. So probably not a huge fan of the browns as of right now Or the cold sorted offense been a a rough stretch for sure Let's talk about the nfc west here big game out there got the rams in the seahawks seahawks one and a half point favorites Total is 47 and a half and you could say in theory. This is a buy low spots both offenses But it's a buy low spot because they both suck right now So it's tough. Uh, which offense concerns you more heading into this game? I macro sense. I 100% agree. This is a buy low spot for both offenses, but both offenses do suck now Yeah, um, I guess of all of the units on the field. I think that the market is A little bit high on seattle's defense. Um, seattle's defense has played A very very soft schedule the last handful of weeks people are looking at them like, oh, they've got to figure it out They're right, you know, they they've figured it out, right? I've heard a lot of people kind of comment about how the seattle defense is carrying them right now and the offenses is struggling Well, that seattle defense has played a lot of very very poor teams a lot of very bro You know a lot of broken offenses to be honest and they run a base defense And honestly if the rams are going to get right, it's going to be against a base defense And this is a good spot for it in general. Sean McVeigh has had a very nice, um, you know set of Play calls in store for what seattle does And I would expect that that they can get You know into the 20s here So in terms of in this game who i'm more worried about i'm more worried about the seattle offense Russell wilson obviously is not playing We saw for the first handful of weeks this season some of that is opponent Some of that is just his offensive line has taken some Attrition and he's under more duress When he was in a clean pocket and his wide receivers were getting yards of separation down the field and he was delivering pinpoint passes He made it look easy and we haven't seen that for a while I would guess that You know, they they had to make some adjustments offensively last week going up against the washington football team Given how strong their defensive line is and I thought they were effective Um, I you know, they still have some sequencing play calling issues in seattle That I don't know if they will ever get over. Um, and their running game is a detriment to everything that they try to do offensively But uh, you know, they're they you know, they they are gonna have You know, at least in my opinion the best quarterback in this matchup They'll have the best wide receiver in this matchup And so they should be able to go score for score with the rams. I think over is the right play here And in general, I can't I cannot tell you what is going on if this is signal or noise It could entirely be noise But for whatever reason the rams offense has played Way way better on the road this year than they have at home I don't know what's going on with them But this is a team that can barely crack 20 at home And they are consistently scoring in the 30s on the road. So go figure The narrative around jarred golf previously was he can't play on the road and can't play against good defenses This year he's been terrible against bad defenses and terrible at home So I don't know what to think at this point Yeah, it's I I also don't know what to think and I I'm I would I would guess that McVeigh is being a little bit cagey about when he's rolling out the good place Right like maybe they're using them in in spots where he's got circled and says, okay, we need him here We're not going to roll him out for the jets because we can beat him with our base stuff But then they can't so you know it's it's it is it has been a very weird year for the rams But at the same time they have, you know, two of the better defensive players in the entire league Aaron donald ought to be the defensive player of the year in my opinion And I don't think it's especially close And you know Jaylin Ramsey can take away one of your You know one of your best weapons in DK Metcalf potentially so this is going to be all about how You know how Russell Wilson can a avoid the rush Especially whatever comes up the middle And can he really develop you know kind of recapture the unbelievable chemistry he has with Tyler Lockett I'm willing to bet that he can and that they're going to score and that this is going to be kind of a team with the ball last wins You know both teams get into the 24 You know 24 to 27 range Awesome drew any other games on the board on week 16 at fan dual sportsbook that uh that stand out to you Yeah, so christmas day I played the under with the saints and the vikings this game sets up very very similarly to vikings tampa bay in my opinion I think that uh, what tamp what what new Orleans can do in terms of generating pressure on Kirk cousins with the four man rush is noteworthy Kirk cousins is going to be under duress a lot in this game If you can put marshawn latimore on jesson jefferson and disrupt what he does in the passing game Adam thieland's a little banged up. This could be um, you know saints get it done with defense 52 is a very very high number considering how You know drew breeze looked last week. I guess is another factor in that one No, michael thomas is another factor in that one. This could be basically the alvin kamar show And saints could win ugly But I like under 52 on christmas and then on And I don't know if this one is still up But on saturday the cardinals I got in at minus four Uh, and if that hasn't If that that hasn't moved enough, I'm not 100 sure what's going on with this Um nick molens isn't playing this is the cj bethard show and San francisco is on record basically saying we're mailing in our preparation this week They have sent everyone home to the bay area who hasn't seen their family in x weeks Because they've been down in arizona and I said, okay, you guys go home spend christmas with your family We'll get back together and play in arizona on saturday I don't think that that makes for an especially sharp performance from this crew And I am shocked that the market has not cut up to this yet This one closes at a touchdown or higher in my opinion. So I would get four four and a half now um, and then uh It's tough to find any sides that are especially worth making a case for on sunday Um, the only one I grabbed was atlanta plus 11 and a half. It's down to the 10 and a half range Some of my thinking there was that canza city might um Night be incentive night beings might not be incentivized to win. Uh, they may have the one seed locked up Um, but it doesn't look like we're going to know that for sure by kickoff So you'll probably see a full game out of pat mahomes and Yeah, don't feel great about that one, but um, I did play the buffalo bills I'm riding them into the sunset here. Um, the way that that the way that offense is is performing is Is quite exciting to watch Josh Allen has taken some very meaningful steps forward I think uh, you know three, this will be the fourth game in a row That'll be sort of a standalone game for the bills going up against the patriots online in football Uh, and realistically, I think they continue their stellar offensive performance against the team It's going to be without Stefan Gilmore really doesn't have much else going on defensively that you can you know that you can write home about so Buffalo bills continue their winning ways put an exclamation point on their fantastic season And I laid the points with the bills standalone games against tough defenses I know that you know, the sealers are not what they were but that you've them You have 49ers at Fuller health the broncos say we're beat up But like good performances and the the patriots they're not good anymore That is drew dinzik make sure you check him out on twitter at well underscore capper and check out the deep dive podcast as well Drew we appreciate the time enjoy tip-off tonight. Enjoy week 16. We'll talk to you again soon. Happy holidays Yeah, thank you guys you guys keep up the great work and I hope best to you and yours This holiday season. I hope everyone's well and happy and healthy and talk to you in 2021 probably, right? That's great. Looking forward to it. Thank you. Definitely Covering the future Big thank you once again to drew dinzik for swinging by and breaking down week 16 the nfl and talking some mba and ed It's gonna be exciting to have the nba back in our lives so quickly and I got I'm not the biggest mba person but talking to drew It at least gets me excited to watch the basketball with nothing else Oh for sure. I mean, I'm definitely excited for it. And then you realize. Oh, yeah, we're still in football season I spent part of this week like trying to figure out whether my strength to schedule adjustments in the new model was appropriate and So anyways, there's there's there's there's definitely lots of stuff going on And I had kind of had this vision of starting to run some nba numbers this year And I asked my deals about how to account for player Player absences and more accurately account for lineups and things like that, but It's not going to happen. Yeah, we're still in the middle football season I mean like I could start in on nba dfs tonight, but like Realistically, am I gonna get there? I don't know man. I'm just like especially in a three-day week We're like it's it's five days of work in three days That's tough man But uh, if you want some nba thoughts go to drew check him out on the deep dive podcast and get off his thoughts there Let's move now to our covering the future for week 16 in the nfl and ed You want to talk about one of the games that drew was talking about uh with the rams and the seahawks What do you see in that game? Yeah, I mean I get why there are reasons to like and favor seattle in this game So first uh rams offense tackle andrew whitworth got hurt week 10 against seattle and the run game hasn't been the same So the rams were Significantly by a wide margin the best run team by my adjusted success rate. They've since dropped a fourth And then second you got to look at the quarterback position, right? So rams quarterback jared golf I think is probably playing above his level Um, the the pass offense ranked six when I look at adjusted success rate Uh, and that includes kind of the the not so great performance. They had against the jets And you know, this is higher than where seattle is right seattle is ninth and they've really struggled recently But I think when you take uh jared when you look at the two offenses And if we had a hundred games to evaluate these teams seattle would probably come out ahead I have more confidence in rossa wilson. Definitely a higher upside Uh to what they're doing on offense So so anyways, I mean, I think there are reasons to like seattle, but But the reason I like the rams is because when you look at data from this season Success rate points yards per pass attempts The rams are the best team in the nfo and again, this includes that awful game against the jets this past weekend Um, actually it was funny in the newsletter last week, you know, I was talking about I was talking about Can you justify a 17 point point spread? Like that's really hard And by the data from this year like you you actually could Uh, like that prediction was like 18 points, which which is absurd I mean it shows you how good the rams have been and just how terrible the jets have been Um, luckily the final prediction was a little bit smaller um when you throw in all the other factors that my full model uses but When you look at the rams they they have been I mean, they've been the best team when when you look at all the metrics that I use And so they actually think the rams are five points better than seattle on a neutral field And you know, I think much of this comes from the rams defense, right? I mean, they're they are significantly better than seattle's defense And when you look at seattle's defense, um, it's it's not like they're It's not like they're bottom five in the league by any stretch, but but they're not good And You know when when I put the full model together, which includes a couple of other factors It like it essentially says it's a coin flip, right? It's a 50-50 game I I think that's the right side in terms like I I got rams plus two in this game And uh, I think that's the right side Well, drew was talking about their schedule defensively for the seahawks. These are the quarterbacks they faced recently dwayne haskins Sam darnold without denzel minns, which has been a major factor this year colt lakoy Carson wence pre-benching kyler murray when he got hurt jared golf in a game where The rams got ahead early and basically able to just mush clock from then on Uh, then it was uh, josh alan a game they gave up 44 points They gave up 27 to the 49ers I think that might have been when jimmy g was still healthy, but like they have not faced a Depends on how you view golf They haven't faced a legit quarterback since november 15th I'm gonna include golf in there because they're facing golf this week. That is more than a month Kyler banged up karson wence colt mccoy sam darnold dwayne haskins There are dudes who three dudes who've been benched in That sample and sam darnold who like, you know, most teams maybe maybe would have been benched so They haven't faced anyone and I think that that bodes well for this rams team and like Like you said, if you look at the defenses here, that's gonna favor the rams significantly And you have to ask is the gap in all fences enough to justify to overcome the gap in defenses Probably not. I think but that's why if I were betting this one I think that I would go the over Before I would go with the side, but like I think the side is pretty easily It's easier to justify betting the rams than it is betting the seahawks at this point Yeah, absolutely And and the thing the only thing that scares you is if rustle puts on a superman cape like you did The first couple games of the year, you know, that's a possibility. Um, we know he's got great receivers Maybe the best in the league but I mean that really I mean if when you if you get their average performance. Yeah, I like the rams to cover this Yeah, I think that I'd agree With that one there and we talked about a lot of overs. We had a couple overs of drew I want to go with an over as well That is for the jets and the browns the most exciting game for week 16 Obviously this guy game I'm joking there, but it's also kind of fun and not just because the browns are playing well The jets got the win last week by actually moving the ball against that very good rams defense And that was a surprise But it was less of a surprise because they had all their top three wide receivers healthy that they've had those three receivers healthy For just five games so far this year But in those five games the jets have scored at least 23 points four times in the other nine games They scored at least 23 points just once all season in total They're averaging 21.8 points per game with those three wide receivers healthy compared to 10.8 With with at least one of them missing They're just a radically different team when mims paramount and crowd are all healthy And all three should be healthy here Against a beatable cleveland defense the browns Should be pretty obvious liking their offense here. They're now to eighth and schedule adjusted offense despite Their run heavy ways. They're still a very efficient offense based on number fires metrics And that's for the full season if you look from just week seven on so since odell beckham got hurt baker may feel It's averaging 0.35 passing that expected points per drop back based on number fires metrics And if that were his full season number It'd be tied with patrick mahomes and erin rogers for first in the league Obviously, that's not saying baker is mahomes and rogers that's saying He's exploiting good matchups and playing good football and he gets another one right here once again The jets should be able to do at least something to contribute to keep this game competitive So I think that should be enough to push this game towards the over a quick glance at the weather says Not a big concern right now or at least there's nothing too concerning as of tuesday So i'm good taking the over right now at 47 and a half and locking it in And banking on the jets offense being competent with those three receivers being healthy and banking on the browns Continuing to dismantle bad opposing teams and I would guess your numbers probably are not on over 47 and a half If I had to guess just because the jets offense probably looks so bad for the full season But any thoughts for you on this game on the whole? Yeah, I mean that's a true statement, but remember, I mean, I don't really advise heavily Relying on my totals model for for nfl for basically anything so Yeah I just want a fun game watch some baker watch baker keep on going and see if you can finish off this year The way he's been going recently that is all that we have for today Here on covering the spread and for this week again Just one podcast this week because of the holiday coming up later on this week So ed what is going on for you over at the power bank? Yeah, I had peter bukowski to talk about packers and nfl on the football analytics show Uh, the newsletter will come out Wednesday tomorrow. Um, so you can get that at the power bank calm That's where you can get a free sample of my best predictions usually say for for paying members of the site And then also, uh, it's it's not up yet, but might be up by uh, wednesday I'm actually going to have an nfl postseason report So, uh, it's just a chance for for people that don't want to pay for the full year to kind of check it out for the playoffs When that starts and if you sign up and pre-order that you can get all my bull predictions as well So, uh, you can check that out at the power bank dot net. That's a place where you can, uh, learn about becoming member Obviously, we would love to have you as a member, but this is the time of year where you can kind of try it out For not not having the commitment of doing the whole year and auto renew All right, the power bank dot net for both the bull stuff and for the playoff previews So make sure you check that out the power bank dot net for that and the football analytics show to get the podcast I am on twitter at gymsonus j i m s a n n e s You can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast big Thank you to our video producer calvin theobald for running the video side of things here today Thank you cal as always Thank you to drew dinsig for breaking down week 16 the nfl and also nba futures with tipoff coming tonight Follow drew on twitter at well underscore capper and of course Thank you to everyone for tuning in both today and always happy holidays to all of you listening Good luck with your bets and we'll talk to you once again next week This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network