 Think tech away civil engagement lives here. Okay, you're back on a community matters I'm Jay Fidel and I'm honored to have with me today Ralph Corsa President of Pacific Forum so nice to have you Ralph. Thanks Jane has to be great We spent many times here and we've talked a lot over the years and I've I've observed and participated to some extent in your programs And I read your pac-nets and I'm so delighted to be associated with you and with Pacific Forum Well, we're delighted to meet with you as well This is a great community service. Let's talk about Wednesday, Wednesday, March 21st coming very soon You have a big program. It's your annual Board of Governors meeting at the Sheraton. Can you talk about it? Yeah, it's Wednesday night Seven o'clock is the dinner 630 reception This year will be special because it's a tribute to Joe Vasey our founder who passed away a couple of weeks ago at the age of 101 We should all live so long. That's right We should be so lucky and he's a great American and a great contribution to society to Hawaii to the world So we'll be paying tribute to him and our featured speaker Will be rich armatage who is a former deputy secretary of state who pulls no punches let you know exactly what he thinks And has a wealth of knowledge on the Asia-Pacific region. Yeah, I've seen him before at the Board of Governors Which has been with us previously. Yeah, so unpacking that a little bit Joe Vasey Can you talk about his life and times and his role in the military in the Navy here in Hawaii? Yeah, well Joe was a sub-mariner in World War two his skipper was a commander named Jack McCain His last job know that name. That's right. His last job in the military was the Chief of Plants and Strategy at Pacific Command under Admiral John McCain. So he and McCain go back a long way He's of course the senator's father He's very close with the senator But when Joe was in World War two, he was in a submarine And they were being depth charged by Japanese destroyers and he said if I live through this So we're gonna find a better way to solve problems other than in people dropping bombs on one another And he remembered that pledge in in 1975 when he retired after a very illustrious career He was even military aid to Harry Truman at one point in his career He founded the Pacific Forum to find a better way of handling disputes and we've been following that vision ever since Yeah, it was visionary. He was also active here in the Vietnam War, wasn't it? Well, yeah, I mean he had been active He was the J5 with Admiral McCain as the commander While they were planning missions to drop bombs on Vietnam when McCain's son was a prisoner of war in one of those Prison camps, so he was very much involved in the Vietnam War prosecution As well. Yeah, and and you were in the service too. You were in the Air Force. Is that right? I was did you know him at that time? I actually as a young captain got to brief Admiral McCain and Admiral Vasey They sure didn't remember it. I wasn't I wasn't that memorable as a captain, but it sure had a big impact on me Oh, sure. I was in the Coast Guard at the time and my John McCain was What did they sink back back when at Macalapa? Yeah, and I met him a couple of times when I was here then just to show you my age, Ralph Yeah, no fat fascinating character a fascinating character with big cigar. Yeah, he was he was he was his statement of the Navy at the time Absolutely, it was very important. Absolutely. Okay, so She Joe Vasey was a huge figure. It was a huge figure in the in more than just the military He was a huge figure in in in the study of diplomacy Here in Hawaii and he was known among all the people who support Pacific Forum As the founder as the leader and they come they have come over the years to see him in large part No, absolutely. And you know, I we had a memorial service for him today at Arcadia and I told the story that back in the 1980s Joe tried to round up support and interest. He had this Chinese mayor coming to Honolulu and he went around trying to get people signed up and now said China a bunch of communists They're they'll never amount to anything. Why waste your time talking about to the Chinese That Chinese was you Wang Ji who turned out to be the premier of China in the architect of their Legitimate great leap forward under Zhang Ximin So Joe was there way ahead of the crowd China opened doors with the Chinese and and bringing them aboard But he also pulled no punches about China and wrote a lot of very interesting pieces that Talked about China's rise and what we needed to do to deal with it. Yeah, people don't realize that Intelligence officers senior officers operational officers in the military get to be very expert about diplomatic relations And they are authorities and that's the case with Joe Vasey's case with you here in the Pacific so much has happened You've studied it for so many years. You are Exquisitely familiar with it. And I you know, I don't the public should appreciate you should appreciate Yeah, what happens? Yeah, that's right. We're for Pacific Forum. We're we're here to help We have an overactive mother Teresa Jean and we're actually trying to make the world a better place and Trying to get people to talk with to one another Well, now for years you had Joseph S. Nye come around And he was the speaker at the board of government's meeting. I remember seeing him a few times Joe was on our panel last year Okay, and and he talked about soft power and smart power and all those things which seem to be forgotten in this administration I'm afraid. Yeah, I'm afraid we're a little bit Self-inflicted wounds on our soft power here in the last a year or so and hopefully we're gonna get a little better on that Become a little more aware. Yeah So, you know part of this conversation on Wednesday night is of course Richard Armitage Right. Can you talk about exactly who he is where he comes from? Yes. We know he's Frank He's direct and he's really a high thinker, but he's also a very candid human being Yeah, he was he was he's probably the Republican that Democrats love just like Joe Nye is the Democrat that Republicans love we tried to bring one of each to co-chair our Board but rich was Colin Powell's deputy at State Department He'd been the assistant secretary of defense previous to that during I guess to Reagan and George HW Bush years great strategic thinker He's Admired deeply in Japan. He's been considered one of the key members of the chrysanthemum club if you would Understanding and dealing with Japan who argued many years ago the question is not getting China right It's getting Asia right and if we get Asia right then we'll get China right and to get Asia right you got to get US Japan right yes, so that's been you know his his main thesis and Joe Nye had developed the concept of soft power Which is the attractiveness of your ideals and everything else and then Joe teamed up with rich to come up with smart power Which is take your hard power and your soft power use them smartly and that's what they've been pushing And some administrations do that better than others So, you know every year that I've seen Richard Armitage come around he's sort of done a geography if you will of all the hot spots in the world all the interesting diplomatic Issues controversies that are happening and I assume Ralph that he's going to be doing that this year. What do you plan? Yeah, well the plan this year. We're sort of last year. We changed the format We did a conversation and I had Joe Nye and Harry Harris mr. Hard power mr. Soft power And we're going to try the same thing what rich this year We'll just sort of rather than have him give a canned speech because the good part is the Q&A session So we're going to go right into the Q&A session and just sort of press him on a couple of Couple issues and try to get his candid thoughts Well, can you give us a handle on some of those issues you might ask about Ralph? Well, obviously, you know China friend or foe is a big a big issue and last year I asked Joe Nye and Harry Harris that And Harry was was great. He said I think China is a great friend of the United States I also believe in the Tooth Fairy in the Easter Bunny And then he laid out from a military perspective the challenges that we have from China and Joe talked more about the diplomacy and the fact that We're still you know, we're still the 1600 pound gorilla even if China happens to be the 800 pound gorilla So, you know try to put it all in a perspective. So we'll try to tease out riches view on that I imagine it'll be a little bit of both. I'm sure it's forthcoming. Yeah, you know It's one thing it happened in the paper. I saw this morning that the president now is increasing the sanctions on China various things very drastic if not You know too drastic sanctions. Where does that play? I mean, can you be friendly with the same country you're imposing big sanctions on? Well, I it's a challenge, but in some cases you have to be I mean the reality is China has been cheating for years And you know, they now essentially force people to give their intellectual property rights in order to do business in China It's certainly not a level playing field. We take their goods. They insist on tariffs on our goods So a little crude pro quo in that area. I think is a good thing I thought it was a big mistake when the president was tying the economic relationship to assistance with North Korea Because the Chinese are either going to help us or not help us with North Korea based on their own national interests So you don't reward someone for pursuing their own national interests and when you start mixing economics and and security together It becomes a bad mix But I think getting tougher with China is long overdue The question is how do you do it and keep it under control? So you don't up end up each one shooting themselves and each other in the foot Well, Xi Jinping is a smart guy. We should talk a little about him. Yeah And and Donald Trump who seems to be managing everything himself Regardless of who is or isn't the Secretary of State at any given moment He's not not not as Akamai about diplomatic related about China And you know, if you put the two of them in a room I'm afraid I would guess that Xi Jinping would have him for lunch. Isn't that happening? Well, it's it's hard to say I think the president comes in with his own biases and his own strengths and weaknesses and so does Xi Jinping You know, he's very internally focused right now. I think he's a master tactician I certainly very good at consolidating power But there have been some strategic things that he's done that I think have been big mistakes So I I'm he I don't think he's any Deng Xiaoping I don't think he has that kind of vision that some of the earlier Chinese leaders had But How they interact together is is normally pretty well controlled I'm a little more nervous quite frankly about the Kim Jong-un Trump meeting because that There is a little bit less controlled and a lot more unknowns. Well back back to Xi Jinping for one moment though, do you consider the one belt one road initiative that he has created over the past year or two To be a good move or a possible mistake I think it's a smart move, but it depends on how it plays out What I've talked to people in countries where the Chinese have started investing and the question I get is How do we keep getting Chinese money without getting all these damn Chinese? Because when the Chinese invest somewhere, they you know, they don't just build a building They bring 500 workers. Yeah to build that building and then two of them 200 of them stay Yeah, it's always a good program suddenly you've got all these Chinese running little businesses and pushing local folks out So there's I Think it could backfire on them in some ways. I mean everybody wants Chinese money We want Chinese money But you got to be careful about the strings attached and and that could come back and haunt them in the long run You think the world and I mean the whole world is Akamai about you know His his plan in that regard to sort of take advantage of one belt one road I think they're becoming smarter I think that there was a lot of Romanticism even within China, you know five years ago people were telling me oh shijing pings can be the greatest thing We're going to really open up. We're going to move forward And now they're all looking over their shoulder because while he's tried to push economic progress Political freedoms have really gotten clamped down on freedom of speech People who used to you know be very open in their comments about the government now are looking over their shoulders Whatever they talk with very good reason and you know a lot of people have ended up in in jail in china for the sole reason of being on the wrong side of Of she so I think there's some you know, there's some real problems there that they're going to have to deal with Yeah, well, I mean you think this undermines the Authority undermines the the power that he is consolidating Underminds his presidency for life that he's being that he's trying to do mind control on the average citizen Yeah, I think it's I think it's a problem. You know you have to ask yourself Why does he feel like he needs to be president for life? You know dung shall ping said, you know, we I'll do two terms and then I'm going to sit back I'll help from from the sidelines, but you know, we're going to keep the process going So you can say well Xi Jinping is so strong and so secure that he can take over Or you can say he's so insecure And so worried about looking over his shoulder that he doesn't trust anyone else Remember putin was president for eight years in russia and then let medvedev have it for four years Well, he controlled things as prime minister and then he came back. He didn't change the constitution She feels the need to change the constitution to stay there. He doesn't have a medvedev He doesn't have anyone he can trust enough So that tells me that, you know, the man may be a little paranoid and And the future really uncertain. That's right The great kiss and you're saying about, you know, just because I'm paranoid doesn't mean there aren't people out to get me And uh, there probably are some people out to get them Especially in diplomatic relations We take a short break Ralph Koso Pacific forum would be right back and we'll talk some more About some of the pac net writings that you have published over the past few months And examine your view of the world from that point of view. Terrific. We'll be right back. Good Aloha Kako. I am Andrea I am from Italy and I've been studying and working here in Hawaii for more than three years for my phd Hawaii is home to a truly fantastic community of middle and high school students And did you know some of them are currently out there right now using their free time to invent new quantum computers? And did you know some of them are exploring cyber security and the new frontiers of robotics? I am just always amazed as I talk to them at science fairs Oh, but there's more Did you know that these students are coming here on think tech, hawaii to share their story with us? Come and join the new young talents making way show and discover how these students are shaping our future Starting on february the 6th every tuesday at 11 a.m. Only here at think tech, hawaii mahalo Okay, we're back. We're live. We're here on a given friday and In the quiet of a friday afternoon with ralph corsa. We're talking about his program Pacific forum program on march 21st next wednesday At the chariton in reiki. There's somebody who wanted to come or know more about it. Where would they look ralph? www.packforum.org This should not be a surprise. That's right. That should not be a surprise and and you'll get all the info you need On the dinner or just call us up. We're in the phone book, but five two one six seven four five We're happy to accommodate you. Well, it's a it's a great event And the money all goes for a good cause helping to get the next generation of young people Involved in foreign policy. Let's talk about that. It's so important You know, my friend, uh, shackley re federal retired judge. He's into the the moot court competition, uh, in in china and it's about international law and uh, China apparently has a need shijie ping would like to have the law students and all these 50 law schools No more about international law after all he took a bad hit in the haig decision over the south chinese season All that. Um, so maybe he's trying to get more akamai about how you argue those cases How you appreciate and maybe change international law And so it becomes more important for the young people and the lawyers in china to know about that I think he's right about that But same here, don't you think our young people have to know more about international law and relations now? Absolutely. I mean what we're trying to do is raise people's awareness We understand that everyone's going to go into the state department They couldn't fit there if if we wanted them, but uh, there's everything relates to everything else And what happens in the rest of the world has an impact on business here. It has an impact on security here You know when when the Tweet comes in that says this is not a drill If you would know that the north koreans were in the process of talking with the south And that things had calmed down. Maybe it had been a little bit less nervous and figured this must be a mistake as opposed to Heading for a manhole cover. Yeah, we all should have called you that morning Well, I was actually in switzerland on a plane, but my wife handled it extremely well She said this can't be true because there's no sirens and my husband said there's a less than one percent chance So I'm not going to be nervous Well, we have we have a whole need for that I mean, I think it's a lot of things that we have to have our younger generation step up to and In hawaii is a perfect place to to center that because we are the crossroads We or we can be anyway the crossroads of and pacific form is really part of that crossroads And we should have our young people go to asia Look around embed themselves for a while spend some time in china If they can in japan and korea and all that and learn and take it back and make this more of a switzerland of Of the pacific don't you think no, absolutely We have a program called apple. I can't even tell you what it stands for but Every year we take 10 of the best and brightest here in hawaii in the 20 to 25 30 Age group and we start bringing in a couple times a month to sit in and sit in and farm policy lectures come to our breakfast lecture series And bring them to an international conference in the course of the year Just to get them more involved in what's happening and right now we have three fellows from me and mar In residence at pacific form A young researcher who's in working on a specific research project Three months to as long as a year depending on their project and our funding And like I say, we've got three from me and security or mission to have these people come over from south korea One from the philippines and and they're here, you know doing research on different security related topics And we're trying to help them and then we take them to meetings around the world Bring young south koreans to meet with north koreans when we meet with them It's it's a great opportunity So can we talk about some of the articles they've been writing some of the research they've been doing In your pac nets, which are published one every few weeks our patchlets come out once or twice a week And they're free just again w w w pac forum dot org say put me on pac net. We're happy to To do it. We just published one yesterday in honor of our late founder joe vacy that he wrote last year When he was only a hundred years old So he was still a youngster and and it talks about a grand bargain with the north koreans But we've had, you know, this young fellow from me and mar who's talked about the need for Another democratic party in me and mar to challenge ansang su chi and and move things forward young filipino who's looking at south china sea issues and is Little bit concerned about where his own government has been going and in that and young americans, of course Who who have come in and and tried to think through issues We've had a young american that just wrote a book Comparing me and mar in north korea and how me and mar opened up and the north koreans didn't Interesting, you know bright bright young guys that makes you feel pretty confident about the future And they get to know each other. So it's more than just coming here and doing research and writing It's a kind of diplomacy all of its own because that's right back. They'll always be in touch They'll be in touch with pacific forum. They'll be in touch with their their comrades at pacific forum Yeah, in addition to our in-house fellowships, we have young leaders program where we bring young people from around the globe to our various conferences We have over a thousand young people now from 60 different countries who have been to at least one of our meetings And there's alumni chapters in singapore and beijing and tokyo and soul and washington And these kids are interacting with each other. So 20 years from now if there's a You know a crisis somewhere The guy in the foreign ministry in korea can pick up the phone with the guy in the foreign ministry in China or japan and say hey, remember me. We were young leaders together We need to talk about that could save lives and that could and and that's you know, that's what we're striving for Yeah, so it reminds me of apc ss doesn't it? Yeah, I mean they're doing that with more senior military folks and we're trying to do it with the next generation But the idea is the same. It's to create links create Interaction among people because at the end of the day people cause problems and people can solve problems And diplomacy and international relations is all about people and personalities and relationships So you have a completely irrational relationship that would lead to a bad place You have a close relationship that could lead to a good place. Yeah So, uh, let's talk about korea for a minute. Sure. Um, what do you think is going to happen here? Is this going to be a real meeting or a phony? Ah, boy, that's a good question. Jay. I mean, I I think the one thing that Trump and kim jong-un have in common is that each one thinks he can outsmart the other So history will find out which one is right and But you know, we have to we have to put it in perspective presidents leaders don't negotiate They set the parameter In most cases you have the foreign ministries negotiate they reach a deal Then the presidents come in shake hands and sign it In north korea, if you don't get the president to agree in the first place The rest of it is meaningless and it's turning out in the united states If you don't get the president to agree, you know, we've we've seen too many examples of the former secretary of state Being undercut by the president after he said something So I think in in this particular case you almost have to have the two presidents The two leaders kim jong-un is chairman or whatever his title is Uh, these two guys say okay here are the basic parameters. This is what we agree to in principle And then you get the experts to sit down and work out the details So it could actually turn out to be good Not good knock on yet knock on the word you said made me think that the world is different now This this particular meeting somehow makes the world different before it was orchestrated by a number of people a lot of input and all this Now it's personal and there's two and they could get into the same kind of name-calling. Couldn't they? It's it's a risk, you know, I mean it diplomacy is always personal at the end of the day I recalled, you know every every four years or every eight years We have meetings with the japanese and the koreans and they are always nervous about the next president And a very seasoned diplomat once said Whoever is president of the united states his new best friend will be the prime minister of japan Because you don't have any option and sure enough Abe and trump are like that, you know, and and if hillary had won they would have been like that And if someone else wins in japan, they'll be like that because your national interests sort of force force that on you, but if you have Bad karma between the two or bad dynamics and we had that For a while between george w bush and no muhyun and in korea it makes it a little more difficult They both pretended to like one another But there wasn't that you know deep element of trust and that that's important But at the end of the day you have to rely on your professionals to do the Negotiating and and we've got a great set of professionals in the united states and our state department and national security council Short-handed, but you know, we make it sound like oh my god. There's no ambassador in korea. We're doomed. Well mark napper is in korea. He's our gcm. He's a he's a Acting charge a acting ambassador now the guy who's had 30 years of experience working on korea So it's not like there's no one there when you pick up the phone You've got a very seasoned diplomat who knows what's going on who's picking up the phone now normally you would like to have An ambassador who can speak for the president I don't want to be the guy that says i'm speaking for donald trump today because Not very attractive. You may find out that you're not tomorrow You have to have the rug pulled out for a month. Yeah, and that's uh, that's one of the challenges Which I think makes working in this administration particularly hard, uh, I think we're Uh, I joked that there's a steep learning curve and there have been more curves than learning And you know, we're trying to get to the get to the point where everyone understands things and it's it's tough You study diplomacy you participate you take trips and talk to diplomats talk to Experts and hither and yan and you are sort of swimming in that milieu all the time I'm getting very akamai about it And so you can appreciate more than most I think that the changes that are taking place in the world And uh, you'll agree with me that donald trump has not been very good on diplomatic relations He has offended our allies on a regular basis just as he has offended people in washington And the question I put to you this is not easy this question. I think it's not easy. Maybe it's easy for you Because you know, he's offended people in asia. He's done unreliable things I went to australia recently and the general consensus was we are so sorry for you americans You go to europe and they're all we get a lot of sympathy cards. Yeah, so we've been damaged We've been damaged in the past year My question to you ralf is how hard or easy will it be To to correct that damage to repair the damage that this administration has created in international relations Well, it's a it's a key question Jane is one that probably can't be answered, but I will tell you this After trump's visit to japan and korea his popularity ratings shot up in both places His speech in korea at the national assembly his toast at the state dinner were magnificent. They reassured people People were worried about whether the us remained committed to the two alliances After the trump visit they came away from that feeling very good about america Still worry about how trump is going to deal with north korea and whether or not he's going to start a war or something I don't worry about that, but there are a lot of people that do But in that case His his visits there and his visits to the philippines and to vietnam were actually quite good They were much better than I had Expected it's certainly better than I had feared And and he did a pretty good job The reality is when the president sticks to a script when he's Speaking from staff work Things work pretty well. Here's what I tell people and it's not comforting to me, but I think it helps to understand Every president in my lifetime has understood one simple fact Presidents are not allowed to have a personal opinion Mr. Trump doesn't accept that So he gets on his tweet in the morning and he says bad sad, etc. This that and the other thing These are not policy statements. They may become policy. They may not become policy But we are so accustomed to believing that everything the word every word that the president says is thought through and is a policy statement that We're not reacting the way we should So they asked John kelly the chief of staff. How do you respond to tweets and kelly's response was we don't we do staff work We don't pay attention to tweets, you know the president says he wants this we do our staff work and we bring him A paper you got to just not pay attention to him Wow, is that easier said than done and certainly it's news when he says all of these things But we have to distinguish between The personal opinion of someone who is not allowing the fact that he's president of the united states Stop him from saying what he thinks Even if this doesn't necessarily Percolate into u.s foreign policy. It's a it's an it's an adjustment period It's not exactly how it ain't going to affect things either. That's right. It ain't over one last point is You are stepping down at some point soon as the as the chief executive, right? Pacific forum can you talk about the the change that reflects? Yeah Well, I've I've been there for 25 years now first as executive director and then as president I plan on staying on as the honda chair Dr. Honda Haruhisa from japan has been kind enough to Give us some money for a chair to let me sort of hang around and Continue thinking and writing While not having to run the day-to-day business. So we'll bring in someone. We've got some really good candidates We're looking at them right now And hopefully by august Just in time for my 75th birthday. I will be able to Step back a little bit travel something less than 220 days a year, which is what I've been averaging And let's let someone else share the fun Well, maybe just maybe you can come around once in a while and tell us about your travels your adventures your writing Sure, I'll I'll be lonely looking for someone to talk to so I'll be happy to come in we'll do that great Thank you, Ralph coast. My pleasure. Thank you and congratulations. Thank you