 The following is a presentation of TFNN trading hour with your host David white call now toll-free at 1-877-927-6648 internationally at 727-445-1044 now David white and welcome all to another exciting edition of the power trading hour with me you're humble lovable and squeezibly soft host as always we'd like to come to you at this time I think they were beeping why I played it maybe we need to play it again the following takes place between 2 p.m. and 3 p.m. and they were early again don't have that synced up quite yet anyway what else do we have going on today well certainly we were testing the lows today I don't see a lot of reason to jump on the long side of the market I had one last short that we set up from last week that we were out of this morning and got pretty close to the top tick on it I wanted it I was pretty sure that the Asian markets looked very weak and after they came back was expecting to start rolling over fairly quickly generally when that happens I like to go to the nuclear option which is EDC which is a leveraged ETF to the third world we bought it under I think low 41's and sold it as it approached 49 this morning so another good trade this week been on fire in Fuego this week as we continue to watch some of these things bounce around one of the things in fact I was talking to somebody this morning and get permission to talk to them anyway they were talking a bit about everybody being so bearish and I said I don't see the evidence of it there's a handful of stocks where people are horribly bearish but the thing that I look at and I guess sneeze I'm back from sneezing now not exactly sure why I got the sneeze going on here but wanted you to look at this in my daily newsletter every day but I break up the put-call ratios for the VIX and the equity options every day just to see whether or not people are feeling bearish or bullish and when we got into yesterday instead of spiking normally the people that want to short the most short at the bottom and the people that in it if you really want to see a market roll over as you heard me talk about what you want is nobody to short of top we've been saying that probably for about the last 10 days that there wasn't a lot of shorting going on unfortunately I hear a lot of people actually telling me that there was and I was kind of surprised they just kind of think that there's shorting going on I don't think they actually look at the numbers at least the numbers I'm looking at but when the put-call came in at the end of the day yesterday at 42% instead of something like 90% I thought well I'll go ahead and hang on to my last short no reason to bail out here we scored on the other ones so what are we going to do well we we had to sit on it today and my guess is the end of the night we're going to find everybody actually did start thinking about buying puts and that generally puts a floor in the market at least for a little while but if you look at this chart at any time any time you approach about 90% you get a bounce that lasts generally a handful of days after that is it 100% no but is it 90% probably I'm gonna have to do the numbers on it but it's so good at telling everybody that if when everybody gets bearish generally it's over and when everybody is in euphoric and can't pull the trigger short they've given up that's when the market falls fairly quickly but you know our conditions that bad the answer is no is this trade deal actually bad I think you can actually say maybe short-term the market reacts to it long-term hey we put people back to work we get steel companies back in production in the United States we get whirlpool producing Washington seen washing machines here in the United States if we had to go to war what would happen if everybody cut us off for the stuff that we no longer want to produce here in the United States what I what I mean no longer want to produce if you have to have some kind of draconian EPA regulations and you can't do it here and you just send it over China all you're doing is sending all the pollution over there so I don't think there's a lot of virtue and just saying hey we're not going to do it and saying that we're going to dump it all on the poor Chinese folk we are you know I guess if we're going to do it we should just say hey we're going to pay up for it it's going to be a little bit more expensive to me I think it's going to be a hell of a lot cheaper on the long run because if we have the ability to actually wage war people are probably not going to go to war with us if we're weak if we're apathetic if we're conciliatory all the things that led up to World War two and that is we don't like war so therefore we're not going to actually act like we could ever do anything about it and that's when tyrants actually decide that well they're acting like they're weak they must be weak and so I think a lot of people kind of short term on the whole tariff issue I think maybe in the long term and even maybe even the medium term it may not be that long things may work out a lot better than you think we put a lot of folks to work I couldn't be all bad in the meantime Chinese they lose four dollars for every one dollar we're going to lose in trade that's not good for them or of course the biggest trading partner with them and the question is just how much pain can they be and if you listen to Mr. Chinos of the in Ron fame and others he will tell you that their entire banking systems built on quicksand and it's always been whether or not the wolf is going to blow on the building we're going to find out it's made a straw so maybe maybe we just know in this negotiation much like Jack Kennedy knew in the Cuban Missile Crisis when we found out that probably 80% of their missiles would have blown up in the silo he thought he actually push and get the kind of deal that you wanted because and things were going to fall our way no matter what but I think you can make a very good case that the Chinese are actually weak here we have a strong position of course history will tell us what it is but when everybody tells me in the media something I generally have to pause and reflect and think that probably isn't most things they don't know what you're talking about we'll be back after the Taz profile scanner is the most revolutionary piece of trading software that you will ever try wouldn't you like to approach the markets with confidence as you begin your trading day it's likely that you'll be faced with lots of decisions in order to make the best decision the first thing you'll need is a strategy that will help you minimize your risks whether we're in a bull or bear market a good strategy is to have the tools needed to help you scan and analyze the markets before you trade the Taz profile scanner instantly scans and filters over 2,500 global financial markets such as stocks ETFs commodity futures and forex headed by Steve doll president of Taz market profile the Taz profile 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And we had a good question in the den that we're going to do some history and that is why do I spend more time on the VIX than anything else and the reason is that those are the options in the out of the moneys and if you're a big hedge fund or something or a big fund of any kind and you're wanting to hedge your bets you can go after individual stocks but for the most part you're just going to say okay I'm going to go ahead and hedge the S&P stocks and it's a lot tougher to get a number for all of the S&P stocks that it is for just the ones that are in the VIX they publish that because of course the people have to to let everybody know they're playing fair on the VIX so it's a number that they actually do for us and it has the math has to work out people would catch it fairly quickly so we know not what the the premiums are at at the money puts and calls but out of the money puts and calls so if someone's buying something because they think it's going higher maybe they're more likely to buy something close to the money opposed to way out of the money and if no one's buying out of the money puts and calls and they're pretty sanguine they don't think the market's going higher or lower but almost always it is buying protection to the downside for the VIX whether or not they're buying the VIX itself or just going and buying puts in stocks that they own but it's a I like that as a better indicator one the as you'll see the equity column on this chart it just doesn't change that much it occasionally does and that's a really big signal of bullish and bearishness but for the most part it's been hovering around the same part for a while got a little bit of a dip down to 52 on the third and of course that's when I started pulling the trigger so you get a little bit of the same thing but you want to see at those bottoms the equity put call and the VIX expand but you're going to see the the VIX probably expand when we do have a bottom it'll probably come in at about 85 or 90 for the day kind of like the the trend and the tick you see everybody deciding to do one thing at one time and it's generally wrong what else do we have to do we got a little history on this day in 1887 Buffalo Bills Wild West show opens in London giving Queen Victoria and her subjects the first look at real cowboys and Indians in 1872 Edward Johnson also convinced Cody to travel to Chicago to star in a stage version of the book Judson had written a book about I don't know a few years before that one of those pulp fiction novels of the late 1800s or 1900s 1800s and it was a it was a monster success a blockbuster a summer blockbuster if you would if they had movies back then Cody broke with Judson just after a year but he enjoyed the life of a performer it was making oodles and oodles of money stayed on this stage for 11 seasons more that did kind of ran its course and then he started the Wild West show and started putting it a big tent that was pretty much successful into about 1910 with the movie theaters actually opening up people kind of looked elsewhere for their fun but he remained on the road for almost 30 years a lot longer than he was hunting hunting Buffalo or fighting Indians in the Great West and of course what we know about the Great West almost all of its wrong the right part of this was that what we got from the movies was mostly from his Wild West show that developed over those 30 years okay what else do we have going on in the market you can give me call 877-927-6648 and you can do other things also email me at pathdfnn.com as Pete did he wants to know about Hyl D and we will take a look at that I think I've got it there take a look at it. Okay how about 50 day moving average first time six over what's the signals to this the high yield debt market well you know we are under pressure in the bond market of course for anything we do the Chai comms will probably do something to counteract it at least somewhat my only thought is that if those guys blow up they've got a 1929 kind of bank crisis at least we may have some of that but it won't be near that and as long as they have far more to lose than us I think a lot of this stuff is going to correct get corrected I told a month ago two months ago three months ago that this trade deal was not going to be solved instantly I thought it was going to take more than a year to get done and it probably still is markets go up and markets go down I wouldn't put a lot of emotional significance for me in my future or your future on whether the market goes up or down and of course I asked the other day and I'm still asking what is the alternative to doing nothing about the issues with China and I haven't heard a lot of alternate theories of how we can make them act more in the community of the world than else out there you know you're back down to support level on this H Y LD I'm more of a fan of looking at the TLT for what's going on so we'll take a quick look at that this is just back up to its previous level you really need it to break 126 69 to get a signal right now we don't have a lot of anything either volume or others where do you get your information from the put call ratio and VIX or equity options off the CBOE website now I do do a different version of the calculation for that do I still have this that's one thing where's mine I can load it again the way I look at it and unfortunately on websites you're going to see it done a different way I think it highly over rates the put call ratio it makes it look a lot bigger than it probably should be and has a bigger emotional impact but the way I look at it is the most that you can have is 100% of on the put call ratio a lot of people make it look like you should have 150% put call ratio right but yesterday what we saw were you know 130,000 more calls than puts and that tells me that people are not bearish they're still bullish and until they kind of capitulate out there we probably have a little bit more pain to go and we'll talk about that when we come back you can give me call 877-927-6648 the path of least resistance is David White's daily trading newsletter and if you're looking for active trading ideas then now's a perfect time for a 30 day free trial to this powerful daily trading advisory service David uses his years of trading experience to offer his subscribers his trading ideas each morning in his path of least resistance newsletter using a combination of equity trades along with options David keeps his subscribers up to date with all pertinent market information with intraday afternoon updates when warranted don't miss out on this great chance to get a 30 day free trial to David's daily newsletter the path of least resistance with no obligation to pay anything David has been delivering solid recommendations for his subscribers recently and if you'd like to see the type of newsletter he delivers every morning then visit the front page of TFNN and you'll find the path of least resistance under trading newsletters for all the details and to start your 30 day free trial today log on to TFNN.com now hi folks Tom O'Brien here if you'd like to get my daily newsletter of market insights then now is a great time to sign up for a 30 day free trial every morning by 9 30 I send out my morning letter to subscribers with market commentary on a variety of markets currencies and commodities to keep investors up to date on the day's trading action included in market insights are specific buy and sell recommendations for stocks ETFs and even options which stops and price targets included for every trade in my newsletter if you'd like to try my newsletter risk free for 30 days then head over to the front page of TFNN and you'll find market insights under trading newsletters I use my years of trading experience to bisect and dissect the market every morning and give my subscribers the most important information they need to know for the day ahead I even issue afternoon updates for my subscribers whenever warranted with important market action I'm always scouring the market for the next great trading opportunity sign up for your 30 day free trial to my daily newsletter market insights today by visiting the front page of TFNN.com well look at them folks TFNN is excited about our new software charting program the art of timing the trade charts in collaboration with Tom O'Brien and using his best-selling book the art of timing the trade your ultimate trading mastery system David White has programmed an outstanding piece of software that will complement any trader's methodology using this first of its kind program the art of timing the trade charts allows you to scan thousands of stocks for Fibonacci formation setups including Gartley's ABC's Butterflies and much more the art of timing the trade charts is designed to help you when scouring the markets for stocks just beginning to form the trading patterns that many investors spend days weeks or even months searching to find and right now we're offering licenses available at only $79 a month we are so confident that you're gonna love this new charting software that will even give you a 30 day unconditional money back guaranteed don't miss out on this incredible new piece of software get your copy of the art of timing the trade charts today by visiting TFNN.com this segment is brought to you by think or swim for more information just click the think or swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com and I had a question during the break where I get this data well the CBOE makes it available all the way back to 2006 I think I have that I programmed it all so I downloaded every night I just click one button but of course I'm a programmer makes it easier for me but I also put it in the newsletter every day so everybody can see what I'm looking at to make my determinations but if you need the link to it for the VIX data just go ahead and give me an email Stan asked for it so I'm gonna send him that link and I'm doing it right now but you can to path at TFNN.com and of course since I've got it in a program I'd actually open my program and dig in here to find the URL for it but it's a CSV so you can load it into a a spreadsheet if you want anyway we were looking at the TLT as we came back up what we're doing is just going back to this gap down from April 1st that had 16.5 million shares you got about half that now which is saying that there isn't enough juice to go break out this high of 126.69 and the question is what else is going on but I think mostly it's the trade issue so what did I do here to EDEZ had an email here asking me about my trade on that one I was looking for it to get back up into 48 which was this island reversal back here from March 8th it got to 49 or was it what is it high they 49.39 got to 49.38 today so is it spiking through there we went ahead and sold but we bought back here I think on that date which was the second and it had a doji out there I thought it was gonna just continue up pulled back a little bit down to I think it closed at $40 and 20 cents on Friday and then of course gapped up Monday morning and we sold out into that but that was our target was 48 bucks once it got to 49 this morning we went ahead and sold it and again so when you can not when you have to what an investment it was a trade but one of three that last couple of days have paid off well for us or paid off and what else do we have I got some more emails out here the question is what to look at for Facebook so look at that okay no chart yeah it did it flipped off I see that I'm not exactly sure why let's do this again and bring back up the charts should have that okay oh what were you doing oh Facebook that's what was okay Facebook has pulled back if you were looking through the news today one of the co-founders of Facebook basically calling Mark Zuckerberg everything I've called him which is a sociopath may be worse a the equivalent of a child molester for free speech I think you could say that saying that the company should be busted up and why he didn't say it kind of close to calling him what I always call him which is Citizen Kane him and Bezos both have reached levels to crush anybody with a dissenting opinion that they have and maybe there needs to be something done about it I I worry about the government trying to tell them what they can and cannot say I do think that Facebook Amazon and others have shown every effort to restrict competition against antitrust laws and if anybody ever pushed it certainly it would be there not a lot of effect today but I think there's enough juice for both Republicans and Democrats to go after Facebook I hope that the cure isn't worse than what we have now in the the SFCC a couple years ago we had Board of Governors actually saying that they hated what other people said they were going to make sure that you couldn't get to them on the internet if we have fascists like that I mean free spirit speeches where everything for our rights starts with it's backed up by this backed up by the second amendment and all the amendments flow down from there without that kind of stuff well we'd have a king instead of a president and 535 elected officials nationally and of course local state all the rest anyway off my soapbox on that Facebook gonna face a day before the man and my guess is that there are four times or a hundred times more guilty than Microsoft was in 2000 it's gonna be incredibly tough for them to lie once they get dragged in and everybody has to start saying well you know I guess I gotta have to tell the truth because I'm going to jail if they catch me in a lie and that's it I would think that you've kind of got a couple of those setups up here that tell you that Facebook and probably to a lesser expense extent Twitter are going to face problems of antitrust and probably regulations putting them more on the level of a telecommunications company and having to at least allow free speech I think that's probably the best way to put it right now incredibly evil I guess that's probably the best thing you could say about Zuckerberg and his crony of evil weasels molesting free speech at every turn but yeah what can you say generally that stuff does catch up into the market it just doesn't do it all at one time okay other things I'm going on here okay got that got that got that okay got that okay Microsoft is it a buy here I think you could still continue on as I've said before the scenarios that I've looked at is if we pull back into the three-day weekend coming up for Memorial Day probably one of the bearish or one of the most bullish setups that you can get right now I'm suspecting that we kind of play around in this area of 2850 to maybe 2890 on the S&P cash and we do that for maybe into next Wednesday everybody finally gets very bearish and starts betting on the downside maybe we get a huge run come Wednesday Thursday Friday next week but to me I think that's kind of what it looks like right now I don't see any big sign of a tradable bottom just yet but if it continues along like this all we need is a lot of people actually getting bearish for us and that probably will set up a squeeze and maybe even a squeeze into it three-day weekend coming up at the moment I don't see any big plays we'll talk about the options curves and what I saw last night in those and that give you a little hint don't see anything again wait for the whites of their eyes out of my motto for this month be back in a minute if you're in the CD market and looking for a secure investment the Tiger first mortgage program may work for you the security for these first mortgages are 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character yeah yeah anyway I was wondering what your thought was on Intel with it getting slammed like it is right now well did you hear my call on this after the earnings call and before that with the news with the new CEO no okay back when they finally got to go back and fill that gap around 41 or something is that right yeah here's kind of the history of CEOs for technology you need kind of you watch Star Trek right the original one oh yeah yeah the captain was kind of a gambler and you had Spock was nothing but but all all logic that's kind of what you want the CFO it's not what you want in the captain of the ship and they've got kind of this weasel like CFO that ran around with a lot of palace and intrigue got the old CEO kicked out for something that happened like 10 years ago and then proceeded to work internally to get power and become the CEO in the very short term I said you know you're probably gonna have a little rally as he cuts a lot of the dead wood out of the market and that final gap up was them saying that they were getting out of 5g up to 59 59 so everybody kind of like that little gap up on the Qualcomm Apple news that they were at least we're gonna throw money down a rat hole that's what they like about CFOs they do cut the dead wood out of the companies what they don't like is a total lack of vision to drive these companies to new heights and another thing is that he is continuing to cut out a lot of the dead wood and trying to get that out of the way so in the future things look kind of rosier for him but especially when you get CFOs that leave not on their own terms it's not uncommon for at least the person that takes over to go into the books and find anything that's questionable and write it off right now and I think we've kind of got a couple of those things going on right now not a lot of faith in the new CFO because he's more of a what would you call them a politician than a CEO and why we don't as traders spend a lot of time looking at him there's a handful of stocks where it really makes a difference and in technology stocks it's how many people can not just take risk but take good risk right and you find that generally CFOs make really stupid kind of acquisitions like buying AOL in 2000 or you know Microsoft wanted to buy Yahoo at a massively inflated rate finally they were going to throw a bomber out of Microsoft was a 2007 or something out if he bought Yahoo so that was kind of Microsoft kind of dodged a bullet there but the history of CFOs is kind of like what you have an Apple now a lot of failed products for a variety of reasons they have a big they they tend to not know a lot of the nuts and bolts of what's going on in the company and people that track the analysts that actually track not the stuff that you read but the stuff that they actually know and tell the people inside is you know this guy doesn't really know much about the company he may have a very sharp pencil but you're not going to find him spending a lot of money or making the right decision of where to put the money and gamble on future products so I mean for the most part Apple has been kind of lucky so far but they've had one good product come out since Steve jobs left so it's pretty much all legacy the question is what's their left and that's the same question I suspect that everybody's asking for after earnings and Intel which is okay you didn't do well on earnings now what are you going to do and I don't think that there was a big answer out there the guy that they had running the company was doing a pretty good job but like I said there's you know you get a weasel in there and I kind of put the guy that's running Intel right now in the weasel skunk category for running around with the palace intrigue without a real vision for the future kind of just the opposite of what we got from Microsoft when bomber left and we got somebody that truly understood the business that they were in now the you know Microsoft can't be stopped and Intel could be like that but I think it's going to take a year or so until they fire this guy and figure out that the emperor wears no clothes like I said when he took over I was very short-term bullish and kind of long-term bearish on Intel does that answer I mean that's not even without even looking at the chart you're going to find a lot of people in Wall Street they're taking the long-term view what happened the last three months doesn't matter to them whether 100 a year two years three years from now and they see some kind of goofball get in here that is you know good with the long knives and planting them in the back of other people he works with and probably not the guy you want running the company you want somebody that's you know kind of rallying the troops not having them all duck and cover every time he looks your way so this would be something you'd avoid and just stay away from that huh at the moment I can't see why I think this is a company it has a lot of great products that are in here and I think as soon as the CFO changes which I think they'll get tired of them in a year but it may take that long unfortunately I know there's a gap in the stock down around 41 or something like that back a couple years ago and it never got filled and I was thinking well maybe it it should probably get down to that 40 41 level yeah but again what are you gonna do Bob bounce to 45 I don't like the risk reward until the CEO is gone let me put it that way I've seen a lot of sense because that would make sense on a technical basis too because it may drop down all the way down there to you till they straighten the company out too so right and why this guy is a good CFO I just don't you know a lot of the issues they have they need somebody like they had not this guy who doesn't know that much and you know it just doesn't say do you guess that Intel CEO was indeed part of the group that engineered out the previous CEO and the answer is yes that's just somebody asking something in the tiger stand but yeah from everything I read I you know I have no actual knowledge but yeah apparently this guy went in was digging for dirt on this guy and went back for 10 or 12 years to find thanks for the call we'll be back in a minute Dave good info okay I'm certain you are or strive to be one of the best of the best at everything you do in life it's the most common trait that we tigers and tigers is share if you're looking to become the best of the best when it comes to managing your money let me teach you to do what most wealth managers tell you can't be done which is how to time the markets I'm Steve Rhodes author of mastering probability and for the last 12 months timer digest has been tracking my newsletter signals which have earned me the ranking as their number one market timer in the nation for the S&P 500 for the last 12 6 and 3 months timer digest also ranks me as the number one market timer for gold as well the fact is markets can be timed and 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propelled a company public match that with 14 years as a full-time trader and he's uniquely qualified to guide you through the light speed world of ever-evolving high-tech if you're ready to ride the next big technology bull market for less than $40 per month log on to tfn.com and get your two-week free trial to the technology insider get in on the ground floor of the next big thing today since 1984 Basil Chapman has been using the Chapman wave methodology to advise traders of his expert market opinion while originally hand-drawing charts from the late 1970s into the 1980s Basil noticed that prices under most circumstances virtually always had a certain number of legs to the upside before declining sharply later Basil found that computer software which included the standard market technical indicators enhanced the degree of accuracy and calling price turns as well as market trend calls thus was born the Chapman wave sequence using the Chapman wave methodology along with other indicators Basil Chapman advises his subscribers of his expert market opinion each market day with his opening call newsletter right now you can get a two-week free trial to the opening call Basil's daily trading newsletter by visiting the front page of tfn.com cancel at any time during that trial and pay absolutely nothing get your two-week free trial to Basil's newsletter the opening call today by visiting tfn.com catch Tom O'Brien professional trader and educator founder of TFNN also a special guest on CNBC Tom will bisect and dissect the markets the Tom O'Brien show next on TFNN and what else do we have going on here that's kind of it we're gonna wrap up the show with what I suspect is going to happen of course no big mystery we had about 12 billion dollars sucked out of the market that money had to come from somewhere along with the tariff issue markets were already weak and we've seen it fairly strong move down a lot of these stocks just because I think maybe we're done going down for a little while does not mean that we're going up I think we could probably get a couple of days of a squeeze I think the way that normally sets up is maybe some kind of retest of today's lows next Wednesday if everybody gets bearish then we'll have enough shorts to go squeeze maybe for a couple of days ideally so far what we're looking for or what I at least I'm speculating is going to happen is that we're going to pull back into the three-day weekend going in to June we're going to do it on light volume and it's just going to get down there we're going to have probably some of the best buys of the year in this market and everybody's probably going to give up on trying to figure out when the trade deal is going to get done we'll get back the fundamentals this market is probably going to move along much better without this deal it's always been where I thought people were going to instantly sell thinking that the top was in I think we could rejoin make enough energy going on this summer to get back up and if the earnings continue to come through as they have been I think the next time we get back up there maybe you know into the summer maybe in October we'll bust through those highs and go to halftime highs long time speculation but I think that's it I think we're looking at maybe one of the best setups for the next big run go break out two new ones but it's gonna take a while don't get too excited just yet in the meantime so when you can not when you have to you'll see here tomorrow same back channel