 2022 is coming to an end and it has not really been a great year. There have been wars and fighting, fears of nuclear confrontation, hotspots and conflicts taking place across the world. Over the past year, we have brought to you many of these issues in various episodes of Mapping Fortlines talking about what happens beyond the headlines. Today, we are going to be looking at five or six crucial topics that have defined the year and whose importance will continue in the coming year as well. Stay tuned. We are joined by Prabir Burkaisa. Prabir, so a lot to discuss in this special episode. There are so many hotspots, so many conflict zones, but let's talk about the one that's on the minds of everybody right now, has been on the minds of everyone for the whole year because the issue started the year before that's Ukraine. Now, first of all, I mean, we of course have stayed away from talking about battlefield integrity and nuances, but broadly for the benefit of our viewers, where do we stand now as far as the fighting and, you know, the confrontation is concerned on the ground in a general sense before we go on to some of the larger politicians. Well, clearly the war continues and we have no end date for the war from either side. So nobody is looking as of date to sit down and talk about what could be a peace plan. Russians have said that yes, we have certain conditions. Ukraine has given conditions. Neither side's conditions at the moment are acceptable to each other. Also NATO's involvement in the war and we have always said that this is not a war between Ukraine and Russia, but a larger war of NATO against Russia, trying to weaken it eastward march towards Russia. So if we take all that into account, that still continues. NATO's involvement in Ukraine is actually growing, not reducing. If we talk about now the patriot battle, batteries going there, billion dollars or something, the huge budget allocation now has been made for Ukraine. Very clear that the United States and its allies are staying in the course for now, irrespective of its crisis that is taking place in Europe. Looking at the battlefield as you have asked, the battlefield is that well Russia has increased obviously the occupied zone. If you take February as a start of the really damned missions that Russia said, what is its special military operations. If you take that, then it has expanded what was the Donbas territory which had seized control from Ukraine, of course with possibly Russian support, but they were having the independent republics of Donetsk and Lugans. So that territory under the control of Russia or Russian allies in Ukraine has gone significantly. So now it's gone to Kherson, there is Mariupol, all those areas have been taken. So if you look at the larger geostrategic picture, Crimea, headwaters are under control, so they don't have to drink only bottled water, which is what they were being forced to do. So that part has opened up, headwaters of the river are there from which they can get direct supplies. Crimea is physically connected apart from the Kirch bridge, is physically connected via Mariupol and the other areas. So you have a continuity which is Donbas to Crimea now. So it does appear that the Azov Sea is under the control, Black Sea they are stronger, that if we look at this as the limited area military target they had, that Russia is more or less in control of. What is the future? That's an important question, what is the Russian larger goal that might be there and what is the NATO's goal? Those are really the key questions. So Praveel, of course one of the things you always talked about is the fact that how this is not really purely a military operation, there's also an energy war, there's a financial war that is taking place and this year has been interesting that way because we've seen the sanctions which really didn't have the effect, we've seen a lot of politics about energy. So as 2022 comes to an end, finance and energy, where do we stand on these being used as weapons in a conflict like this? Well, you know before we do that I would also like to say that it is unfortunate the war is actually expanding because if you see now you have regular bumping of electrical infrastructure of Ukraine which means large parts of Ukraine will not have electricity for heating, lighting and so on, which is a tragedy because winters are very harsh in Ukraine and this this has happened over the last two three months. Earlier Russia was not attacking the infrastructure, it started really with the Kursh bridge attack after which this seems to have started much larger assault on the infrastructure. The Ukraine nationalism which is something which was relatively not so sharp has certainly gained energy and swung much more to the right. We have clearly the new fascist forces becoming far more active and visible today in Ukraine. The third part of it which is where the dangers might lie for Ukraine is that Ukraine is losing a huge amounts of soldiers on the battlefield in Bakhmut for instance which is really becoming a bit of a mid grinder and Russia doesn't seem to be too interested in territory at the moment as a destruction of military forces of Ukraine which is one of the targets that they had demilitarized Ukraine. So that they seem to be achieving in this way and the fact that NATO coming to the NATO question NATO's huge investment that is taking place in the war not only ensuring of the Ukrainian economy which is one of the major tasks they have they have had but also the fact they are pouring in huge amounts of weaponry over there and it seems now with patriot batteries coming in that the risk of widening the war is there on one hand, on the other hand it is really NATO forces literally on the ground to support these kind of advanced weapons which the Ukrainians have not been trained on. So there is the greater risk of this spinning out of control at the moment NATO is certainly not winning this war if you take Russia's task is to demilitarize Ukraine may weaken it that seems to be happening on the ground at the same time Ukrainian nationalism has also risen shall we say much further it's that way it is much sharper today than it was earlier so peace immediately is not on the cards unless European Union you know starts putting it's what is happening to it on the table and thinking about it that is your really the other question what is the NATO's larger prospects in what is the European Union doing the energy war in the economic war leaving the economic war out the energy war clearly has hit European Union much harder than it has hit Russia. Russia still supplies to the world market continues this so-called cap energy cap doesn't seem to be working because anyway the oil prices have not gone that high the gas prices for Europe European Union has been much higher because LNG is four to five times higher than what the pipe gas they were getting earlier and the net gainer has been some of the oil kingdoms but also the United States who even now in Germans and others have been saying well you know we are paying five times what a pipe gas price was when you're paying it to Russia United States they're asking us to do a lot of things but they're gaining out of it absolutely so European Union seems to be the net loser in this conflict apart from Ukraine. United States net gainer because they are having their control over western Europe we make even stronger at the moment and also getting them in the grip for the future for the energy supplies so United States seems to be a net gainer but at what cost because strategically they have strengthened Russia's military machine they have strengthened Russia's actual influence in the world because nobody was willing to cut apart from the handful of countries with NATO willing to cut their terms economic ties with Russia and impose sanctions so I think net I don't think Russia has been at least a loser in that terms unlike European Union which has been a loser what is the geo strategic picture in the future again crystal ball that's not an easy answer to give but yes Russia survived its economy survived and its energy external trade has survived at the moment Russia seems to be economically stronger than it was earlier European Union net loser United States I will say the net gainer economically because European industries also seem to be wanting to shift to the United States because of cheaper energy so given that politically what's going to happen to European Union is the key question for the future as much as what when will Ukraine and Russia sit down and discuss an agreement that depends really on the European Union at the moment because US is very clear it will like to continue this as long as possible as long as possible weakening Russia you fight Russia to the last Ukrainian but what happens to the European economy and the fact that not European Europeans are talking to Chinese that we also come to the we have to look at the second battlefield battlefield exactly which is where you are getting to right which is the one with China absolutely right so Praveen that's a good segue into this question because that was a moment which everyone was really nervous about Nancy Pelosi deciding to land in Taiwan you know speculation building up for weeks a lot of tension because the fact that both the US and China are nuclear powers at one level on the other hand it was quite puzzling the rhetoric around it especially over the one China issue we do know that the US is committed technically to the one China policy but Biden making statements indicating that they would defend Taiwan so all this put together where do we see you know why is this why has Taiwan become such a key point right now because we've seen the trade war in the past years but this year specifically why did Taiwan become such a flash point you know simply put the US would like in the long run to detach Taiwan completely internal politics of Taiwan they had a government which was much more stridently anti people's republic of China there then the earlier governments were they haven't done so well in the last Taiwan yeah they lost quite badly yeah and it's interesting that the ones who are the one China people in Taiwan are the ones also the followers of Chiang Kai-shek okay so they're not friendly with the the PRC but they at the same time they believe that it should be one China and this they this is the complex scenario which we have to negotiate if we look at Taiwan it's also which NATO equivalent in Western Europe or Europe there is this equivalent in in the East Asia region that this can be a springboard if you want to him in China strategically you have Taiwan you have Japan you have South Korea then if you come down you used to have Philippines which may have returned to the United States with the victory of the Marcos young young Marcos so that's a possibility we'll keep that as a possibility it's not so easy for Philippines to go there as yet so how to hem China in now if you see the way the world portrays it as if United States is somewhere close to Taiwan Taiwan is in between PRC People's Republic of China and Taiwan so somewhere Taiwan is equidistant if you look at the readers for the US readers particularly that it's really somewhere in between the two the reality is that it is only 800 kilometers of the shore of PRC the so-called the air defense zone that it says warning and defense zone it claims is over the PRC it's the People's Republic of China it's over that so if you take China as a state and take United States obviously the island of Taiwan over which this discussion is taking place really a part of very close to PRC therefore United States its warships coming over there its aircraft coming over there nuclear capable submarines coming over there is really a projection of naval power across the entire Pacific ocean into the mainland of Asia and that's what it's really about that we have to control China in order to control China we have to control the Pacific Ocean particularly the near Pacific which is what Taiwan Korea and Japan is so that is why the military of power projection that's why Taiwan becomes a conflict issue because that way you can actually say okay we are controlling you because shoreline your shoreline is under our guns so this is the old shall we say the gunboat diplomacy that the United States believes more of gunboat less of diplomacy less of diplomacy but it is backed up by the really the economic that is I think the crux of the issue between China and the United States not so much the United States and you China is not so much Taiwan as it is about the economic dominance who will dominate not the Pacific but the world economy the world economy and in this context probably it's interesting that China also seems to have its own set of options which is where for instance Southeast Asia comes into play which is where that whole region so while the United States has been pushing you know very security driven policy or narrative for that matter China's approach seems to be very different to these countries so although they do have differences China and many of these countries nonetheless there is this attempt to sort of work together we saw that for instance in Bali when Xi Jinping went there as well so does that seem like a good counterweight to what the US is trying well you know the view of the world is very different if you are sitting in Asia or Africa or if you're sitting in America or Western Europe they seem to view particularly the United States control over the oceans to control the world while the Eurasian landmass most of the people there would see well you know there are other options that we can think about so if you take that into account then China has been talking about the Belt Road Initiative as how to unite the Eurasian landmass they have been also talking in the maritime Silk Route which is maybe a discussion for another day but it's clear that with the western front being NATO and Ukraine and Russia with the eastern front being Taiwan that's the way United States is projecting it but also Japan and South Korea then you are looking at the whole of Eurasian landmass and going to minus South Asia out of it because we have the Himalayas so it's not really similar so the integration economically of Eurasia is it possible and that now Russia and China on the same side this is what the US has done with the two major strategic moves it has made one in Ukraine and the eastward march of NATO and the other in Taiwan South Korea Japan particularly Taiwan so you have really got two of this two of the biggest countries in the region together and of course the sanctions that you have imposed in China so economically this China's interest is really expanding trade times in which also Africa Latin America also fall in you've raised about the Southeast Asia it's very important issue one is on the South China Sea though the United States say they're intervening in favor of these countries which are literal states of South China Sea apart from China their interest and the interests of the literal states are very different because the other all the states have said we do not consider this to be free and open seas this is really our basically economic zone and the exclusive economic zone where the lines lie that is the dispute with China but that is there all of that put them put together that's an exclusive economic zone which United States cannot regard as open seas that is the position on the question of economic integration that you were talking about through trade which is what China has been also talking about the question is the United States had the opportunity for a trans specific partnership the TPP but instead of that it withdrew from that and therefore left no alternative for countries like Japan but to be a part of what is now a much larger trade bloc largest trade bloc what is it the largest trade bloc which is RCEP which has China in it Japan in it and Southeast Asian countries in it India is also not there so there is no counter balance to China over there and that is the biggest trade bloc in the world today which is also growing so given that Southeast Asian countries do not want the fastest growing zone in the world today they do not want their trade to be disturbed by these kind of economic wars so I think that's the other major factor to be taken into account as far as Central Asia is concerned again one side Russia one side Iran the other side China if you look at the map it's very clear that the Central Asia's interest lie more in these three major countries particularly China being a much more bigger economic partner so given that I don't think you know isolating China in this way we can again talk about the technology war maybe it's a topic for another day but I don't think in your strategic terms the United States is going to make a headway by just roping in three of its allies South Korea Japan and now impending one of Taiwan if they succeed in getting the Taiwan is to completely go with them I don't think that's a really a viable option for them so a lot of will hinge upon the energy war with Russia right and also the economic war that particularly the technology war with China which of course is a much larger topic absolutely right right you mentioned Iran this takes us really to one of the other topics we come regularly to the show which is West Asia again this year we've seen a lot happening the Iran nuclear deal stuck in a limbo even now Biden apparently said that you know it's a dead deal and of course we've seen some interesting developments in terms of Saudi Arabia and the OPEC countries putting up a slightly different position from the US there's always of course Israeli occupation of Palestine Israel becoming a more right wing more aggressively right wing state but I think one of the things I'd like to start with is the issue of the OPEC plus countries because it connects to our earlier issues as well which is that you know you have Saudi Arabia and all its allies everyone for the longest time saw them as proxies literal proxies of the US but now it doesn't look so black and white in terms of how things stand so what exactly is happening that has prompted this kind of realignment if you can call it a realignment I think it is a larger realignment part of the larger realignment not switching over flipping from the United States to China or Russia that's not the way it is happening it's a really a larger realignment that is taking place that you're you're rightly raising the question of OPEC or the oil issue and the oil issue if G7 can impose cap on oil price for Russia it can do it for anybody tomorrow right so therefore the interest of oil producing countries minus the Russia Americans and Americans really produce much more for themselves is not in alignment with the United States and I think that comes out when you see Saudi Arabia moving towards a more independent position also with Russia is a part of the OPEC continuing what should be the amount of oil they should produce they did not increase oil production by the production when the United States want they even now are deciding independently of the US how much oil they should produce so it's more a declaration of independence from the United States rather than switching side from one to the other so the Arab countries also in fact when Xi Jinping went to Saudi Arabia there was a Gulf Council meeting but it's also meeting with the Arab states which most of the Arab states attended barring one or two so given that there is a larger realignment taking place in among the Arab states particularly the oil rich ones who want then to play a more independent role in the world and particularly with respect to oil they're key shall we say producing money producing machine so not only oil I'm including also LNG in this which is of course Qatar comes in the big way on that so given this realignment I will say this is more a hydrocarbon independence rather than independence of anything else yes Iran is outside this at the moment though Iran is very much a part of the oil producing gas producing countries it's still outside it and Iran has conflict both with Israel which you have mentioned but also Saudi Arabia with respect to Yemen so those things still continue so internal battles amongst the Arab states is going to continue the conflict with Iran is still very much there between Saudi Arabia and Iran particularly with respect to Yemen we don't know what the what course it will take in the future but those are the unknowns over here the real issue is of course the Joker in the pack is of course Israel and the fact with Men Gavir in a partnership with the with Netanyahu and holding a much stronger hand now has also got essentially the control of the inter the police essentially what in India would be called the home ministry so they are controlling the internal security and therefore this means a far more difficult proposition for the Palestinians and also those Palestinians who are citizens of Israel but really second class citizens and they'll be told they are second class citizens in no uncertain terms so Ben Gavir is a part of the government so the prospects of peace in Palestine Israel looks bleak at the moment that is the worsening of the relationship Iran has not been happy with China's visit to Saudi Arabia they've made some noises about this so we'll have to see what that course takes place but the way the United States hates Iran the fact that they did not come to any agreement with them means that Iran's therefore will have to still play ball with Russia and with China to be able to save itself from the isolation which the United States would like to impose on them particularly now that this protests have taken place exactly like of the women large-scale protests against the hijab and essentially the morality morality police which is really an oppressive force so given all of that Iran I think will have to come to terms with the realignment taking place in the region and I don't think it's going to be at the expense of Iran because China and Russia both want to see Iran as a major player in Central Asia which is the place where Iran has a much bigger stake Iran as well as Turkey have a much bigger stake the only ones which have a bigger stake is really Russia and China probably this we're moving to the other last two regions that we really need to focus on and one is of course Africa very diverse continent very difficult to you know encompass it in one or two questions but I think one process we really need to sort of look at you know keep emphasizing is what is happening in West Africa the former of what is called the francophone Africa we have countries like Mali Burkina Faso Niger for instance where this year saw a huge amount of change the French really losing all credibility popular protests taking place coups happen quite a few coups to place as well so how do we understand what has been happening in this region because I think it's one of those areas we really don't talk about much because of lack of information language etc but it seems to be one of the most important processes taking place in the world well you know Africa is one of the most important places in the world has always been unfortunately because of the destructive impact of West European slavery imperialism colonialism dividing Africa the what's called the rush for Africa and so on Africa still is in a battled continent trying to still rebuild its economy after the colonists have aboundly left but as we know from the France impact on Africa they've never really left if you take the British they were really replaced gradually by the Americans the French also are being replaced by the Americans with the number of military bases over there but the French influence post you know second world war was still significant in Africa and they have had a number of military interventions in Africa coups toppling governments this has been their regular course for a very long time so this this is a decisive moment in which France is visibly losing out right it still controls the economies of francophone Africa countries which are in two of the blocks which still currencies currencies are basically pegged to the franc their budgets are passed by the French National Assembly so given that I think you will see a much more open assertion of military strength by the United States and withdrawal of the of the French but that also is becoming unpopular because they are all seen to be ex-colonial pro-colonial powers and therefore now you're seeing a much more assertion of national identities by these countries we are of course because of the way this country's borders were decided sitting on a map somewhere in Europe drawing lines then the identities of these countries have to reform not as groups of people language of different languages that is that basis isn't there so they have to reform on the basis of whatever identity they have because they can't go back to a pre-colonial identity that is gone so this is the difficult process of decolonization they are overcoming at the moment trying to work on their own identities and the own terms in the rest of the world their major economic shift has been the trade with China and the infrastructure China is helping them build that's why the hatred for China by the western power saying oh they are trying to do what we did earlier we have learned but they have it they're doing the same thing but if you look at that they're building infrastructure they're not putting their companies military bases or you know having their trade terms tilted maybe in favor of China but not owning property over there so this arguments even if they're true which is debatable but you don't see what you saw earlier that uranium mines coal mines oil all the big gold by American or European companies that you don't see so given that I think the issue is really to what extent the imperial powers will let them do this without disturbing the the trajectory they are on and DRC is the democratic republic of Congo is the key test because that is where the very major wealth of Africa lies and if that can be redistributed among the x colonial powers including the United States then that's a big price thereafter that is why you see M23 you see Rwanda being used as a force projection by the colonial or x colonial American power to see that DRC is kept in check so that's wealth can still continue to be needed and this is again a discussion another day what happened in Congo what did Belgium do etc not a question today but that's really the test and of course what you said francophone Africa can it assert its identity outside the influence of France which is what the battle today is about in this region absolutely and premier one last small bit about the horn of Africa as well we know that a civil war was going on in Ethiopia for the longest time the Ethiopian government versus the Tigray people's liberation front there seems to have been a ceasefire towards the end of the year most analysts saying that it took place because the TPLF is pretty much completely defeated in battle many analysts also saying that the TPLF is essentially a front for US interests in the region as well so we have Ethiopia of course and Somalia both of which facing their own crisis and both of which are also seen as key points of US intervention in the region yes if you take the map of Africa you will see that the waterways is what the United States and the colonial powers want to control therefore the countries in which they wanted to cruise Somalia is one of them Ethiopia is another country which they're interested in the control the horns of Africa therefore the Red Sea now given that as the as a basis Ethiopia and Somalia have always been on their target and Ethiopia as you know Tigray Liberation Liberation Front has been a key element of that whatever is happening in the region I'm not going to say A is better than B and C is worse than D and so on but the point is that much larger representative forces are coming to the fore and militarily unfortunately the US is still a destabilizing force doing you know military strikes in Somalia time and again without any consciousness of what is the emerging political reality that can take place they would prefer the Somalia lives in this kind of military wilderness and so that they can keep control that it doesn't become a political power so this is a very destructive cause that you see that's taking place in this region hope if Ethiopia stabilizes that the next question is what happens to Somalia these are the two major questions and no easy answers on this question absolutely right and we finally our last region might be a bit more of a positive note maybe to end this discussion which is Latin America we did talk last year about so many of these processes that are taking place and now by the end of the year we have Colombia we have Honduras we have Brazil with Lula we have for instance in Borges in Chile again elected last year of course but still nonetheless making making some inroads on the other hand we do have Peru where we see that President Pedro Castillo was overthrown in legislative coup which means these forces the right wing forces are still very much in the phrase so to speak but I would say that 2022 was a year when Latin America at least saw quite a bit of a shift now it may not have been the same as the pink tide from the early part of the century but definitely very different from how the continent looked in 2018 or 90 yes I think there has been a left word shift more than a left word shift we see a weakening of the United States if you take simply the oil part Saudi Arabia is gone Venezuela had gone earlier okay the other Arab countries are gone so you already see that the oil at least one major international commodity that still is at the moment out of the US ability to control Brazil is very crucial in this also because Brazil is also a metro state they have a lot of oil resources they have also hydroelectric resources but they also a lot of oil so this is one resources if that is what is at at stake a resource issue of course is also Bolivia let's hear so therefore batteries so that that is also now firmly all has gone to the other side so yes shifts there is also the counter shift as you put it at the end of the year we had a coup in Peru but we also had the Argentina issue come up the vice president has been again law fair again law fair argument which is what was used against Lula so all these things are there but I don't see strengthening of the United States influence in Latin America anymore because it's really a rearguard battle that the United States is fighting how to control Latin America that seems to be the issue and even Mexico right in its borders right at its borders also saying things which is unthinkable to the United States state years to ten years back so what you are seeing in larger regional assertion which part of it is led by the left but the process of larger regional assertion I think that is going to continue and that is where the United States and the G7 are facing their biggest challenge can they dictate to rest of the world what is it called the rule based international order where they get to make the rules and everybody else is to obey that that I think that is the biggest crisis they are facing that 2022 is the year which we can say decisively the rule based international order which started to be asserted when soviet union fell post 1990s this was the slogan under which if you remember Serbia was invaded all of that that has come to an end and maybe a true international law based order in return can take place and there of course the Security Council United Nations whether the U.S. and its allies will let them play that role or not is the key question for the future hoping that we do not destroy civilization because this year neither a global warping or a nuclear disarmament we have seen not only a decisive step but we have actually seen step retrograde step taking place and I think that remains for the larger 22 the biggest failure absolutely thank you so much for talking to us that's a lot I think we have covered two important points you mentioned one the threat of civilization but two also the weakening or the holes that are being increasingly found in the rules based international order always great to have discussions in mapping fault lines because I think we try to go beyond personalities and statements and pronouncements look at technology production some of the key processes that go over years and decades and then understand the world through that lens so thank you once again and that is all we have today and for this year we'll be back again in 2023 with new episodes of mapping fault lines new attempts to explain the world to you in a way that is different from what we often see in the media until then keep watching this click