 16 games and a whole lot of studs on the docket for tonight in daily fantasy baseball and our job for today is To dig through all the potential value plays and decide where we can go in order to jam in Guys like Aaron Nola guys like Eric Cole these really good hitters in good situations We want to use for tonight. We got to find a way to make it all fit and it's not easy But I think we can make it happen. So let's dive on in and get you set for Friday night's late Welcome on into the solo shot. That's right here on the fan dual podcast network in number fire calm My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm here to preview Friday's 15 a game main slate We're locked set for 705 a 4 2 night There are some weather notes for today, which is no shocker on a such a full slate We could see some rain late in Baltimore for the orals and the rays It looks now as if that rain will arrive sometime around mid game But I would check back on the timeline of that later on It's a similar thing in Philadelphia for the Phillies in the Dynabax right now I think we'll be good to go but check back on that one later There is a slight chance of rain in New York for the Mets and the Nationals Check back on that one later on and finally the worst game on the slave as far as weather goes is in Minneapolis Looking pretty sketchy for the twins and the Brewers rain there comes early and looks pretty heavy So that one could be in trouble. So the main game for tonight to check on for weather is twins Brewers But also a check back on Mets Nationals Phillies Diamondbacks and Orioles versus the rays Hopefully good weather updates to come in the 4 p.m. Stream youtube twitch facebook and twitter Check us out there also good stuff here on the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed Austin Swain's usc preview of vegas 35 is now posted giving us thoughts on that slate That's up on the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed as far as NASCAR goes We have the NASCAR podcast recording live on youtube at 10 30 a.m Up on the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed after that it's Daytona on saturday So uh sets up pretty well should be a fun slate swing by 10 30 youtube to check that out or check out the number fire Daily fantasy podcast feed and while you're there leave us a rating and review as well Hey soccer fans this season fan duel and captain morgan are teaming up to give you a one-of-a-kind soccer contest Introducing captain morgan soccer pickum a weekly fantasy contest that is entirely free to play The contest is simple. All you have to do is make quick predictions for saturday games this soccer season You'll earn points for each correct pick and compete for a chance to win to three thousand dollars in prizes every single week Head over to fan duel and enter the captain morgan soccer pickum today must be 21 plus to participate Four more details is a fan duel dot com or download the fan duel fantasy app Eligibility restrictions apply and don't forget to make your game day more delicious and sub in the captain Pitching preview for this friday mainslay garret coal back to being the king of the mountain He is 11-2 on fan duel for today Shayna clannaghan checks in at 10 5 facing the Orioles for the second time in His past couple stars. We got kevin gaussman at 10 1 facing the braves erin nola and a good spot is 10 000 Max freed is 96 joe musgrove 92 Then we have wade milie edward ordinary gets shamanaya chris bubic j hap steven mattes eric lauer and logan gilbert All at 8 000 dollars are higher. So yeah, the studs are good We also have a lot of second tier options for today. Now the second tier options are fine. No objections there, but I want to do whatever I can To get to erin nola for today because you're not going to find many situations Better than the one that he has nola is at home and that does tend to matter more for him than for other pitchers He's facing the dinobags, which is one of the better matchups imaginable So nola to me an absolute stud on this slate. Nola was unreal on saturday against the Padres Obviously did let up the home run late to j crona worth, but 11 strikeouts in that game It was on the road against a low strikeout team He's been cutting back on his changeup usage over his past seven starts, which Is kind of interesting given how good that pitch was for him last year But it hasn't mattered in that time. He has still has a 3.47 skill interactive er a his strikeout rate is 29 percent We can use nola even in tough matchups, which is what he showed over this past weekend And this is not a tough matchup They have an 83 w rc plus versus righties the iso for arizona is down to 132 They got a 25 strikeout rate So when a pitcher is facing arizona you bump them up quite a bit especially at home And nola doesn't need that bump like he would be in play on the slate in a neutral matchup But you give me this matchup at home I'm gonna take it for sure $10,000 on nola It's not low, but I would still say he is under salaried. I'd pay 11 Happily for arizona in this matchup. So getting him at $10,000. I think to me as a steal Yes, it's high, but yes, it is also a massive steal So arizona to me the no-brainer top arm for tonight on the daily fantasy baseball slate And 10k is not outrageous. So we have some flexibility hitter. We'll talk about Stacks for today under the mindset of trying to get to nola at 10,000 As far as the number two guy it is garret coal for me. He's facing the a's which is a tough matchup Luckily for us. It's in a great park for pitching and coal is just out of his mind right now I will put him second behind nola here despite the fact that he is 11 Two on a slate where I do want to spend up for some high salaried stacks Cole was one of the guys who definitely slipped when these sticky stuff discussion began And it likely took him a while to adapt with less grip trying to figure out how to grip that ball and make it work And I'm not sure if this is the cause but the movement on his curve ball did change recently I think that the thought process here is okay. Did he figure out how to get that grip back without the sticky stuff? He started getting quite a bit more movements on that pitch six starts ago and the curve is not a big pitch for coal So I'm not looking at that pitch specifically, but I'm looking at what that could indicate It could illustrate that Cole has figured his grip back out and he has been lights out in this stretch He has a 2.66 skill interactive. He already his strikeout rate is 38 percent Which means he is back to being the garret coal of old in this time and he's done that in a really tough matchups He had 10 strikeouts against the rays 11 against boston 12 against houston that game where he went like 193 pitches and the pitch count is work back up as well He has gone 90 and 97 and his two starts off the cove at isle. So pitch count is work back up He's had double digit strikeouts against really good teams and now I think that you put him against oafland We can at least have more confidence in him despite the tough matchup because of what he's been doing recently If nola weren't in literally the best spot imaginable. I'd be higher on coal. This is not a coal thing It's a I really freaking love erinola thing as it is I'm very okay putting coal second He's too good from a talent perspective to put any lower than that even in tough matchups So to me the top of this late is erinola definitively one garret coal definitively two And then the rest of the guys are fighting for third place among the value pitchers for tonight I think the top option for me is pretty clear Which is logan gilbert's and I will say that acknowledging that his past couple starts have not been good He's eight thousand dollars that does help account for the struggles a bit and gilbert's had kind of like Three distinct stages in his rookie year Struggled out of the gate Surged for a while and now he's come back to earth and he's gotten rocked. He chose past two starts But those two were in much tougher matchups than what he has here The two starts he had were against houston in toronto two of the best teams in baseball best offenses in baseball Gilbert led up 14 earned runs between those two games combined nine against houston So it's super brutal really bad not great But I like that gilbert has stuck with his plan In those starts because he has good peripherals with this approach The specific approach is using his slider more often over his past eight starts He has a 3.57 skill interactive er a with a 27 strikeout rate in that time His walk rate is five percent the bad at ball data is bad, which is why he's getting pounded It's not like a mystery as to why the results are bad is because it's bad at ball data is rough I just worry less about that against the royals and a lot of other teams because the royals have a 145 iso against righties Their wrc plus is 88. They don't walk a whole lot, which should help Gilbert get deeper in the game so yeah he struggled recently and He has done so in a pretty brutal fashion But I like the underlying numbers. He's at home the matchup is a lot softer this time around So I think to me this is a bet on talent and I want to ride gilbert among the values at $8,000 I think he is the most talented guy below 8,000 outside of maybe shaw mania mania is facing the Yankees So this is a better spot than that. So I think that Gilbert is Someone I'm willing to go to despite the most recent couple of really rough starts Let's move now to stacks and again with stacks I am operating under the mindset that we are using aeronola as our picture at $10,000 That means we can stack some high salary teams. We want to find some Low salary guys within those stacks. So we'll talk about the stack and then highlight potential outlets for some salary savings me Stacking starts with the red sox once again They have been a constant theme throughout this week because they faced the twins depleted pitching staff And now they're facing cleveland and logan alan I think we should go right back to them once again No matter how boring it may be to be on boston once again alan has been in triple a Basically since mayon had a couple starts in the big league sprinkled in there, but in triple a things have not gone well for alan He has a 5.17 x-fip. He has a 7.95 era in triple a again, and he walks a lot of guys We don't necessarily want to target high walk pitchers for dfs because it limits limits balls and play balls and play Are your path to upside? But in the majors the strike area for alan is just 14 percent Which means that he's still letting up the ball and play 75 percent of the time despite a 10 walk rate That's something we can work with He's allowed a 43 heart hit rate the one negative of alan is that he does get some ground balls But clearly based on the results that is not done enough to erase the other stuff in his profile We see now and get rocked at both triple a and the majors now He's facing a red sox team with a 104 wrc plus against lefties It is pretty boring I will say to stack against the stack the same team the entire week We get boardies and the same dudes, but I think we should do it here Within this red sox team bobby dalbeck kind of the obvious value play had a double long last night So dalbeck very on board with but one guy to keep an eye on for values christian arroyo There is a really good chance. He does not play today. So keep that in mind But they made an extra spot out there with hunter renfro not available for this Couple games arroyo a 209 iso against lefties in a small sample this year. He's minimum salary So again, make sure he plays but he was in there last night may get back in there today Would not be shocked to be plays against the lefty So I do like the salary savings if he winds up in there again dalbeck definitely in play for sure But arroyo another guy to check out if he winds up in there to get the extra flexibility to get to JD martinez to get the other guys keke hernandez even the lefties are totally fine against alan so See if arroyo is in there. Otherwise dalbeck the key value play on the red sox our second stack is gonna be the tampa bay raise because Poor matt harvey feels like he is feels like he's faced tampa 90 times this year in reality It's just twice But tampa bay rocked him in both those starts and I want to be there for the third time for tonight The first time that harvey faced the raise was back on may 18th He led up six earned runs in one in the third innings That was a long time ago and harvey has made some changes since then he's throwing fewer forcing fastballs and more curveballs now And it has led to some better results for harvey It did not help him the second time he faced tampa bay though, which was within this sample There's two starts ago. He led up five runs in four and two third innings Overall with this new approach for harvey. He has a 43 heart rate rate allowed His strength at rate is 18 percent. That's not a great combination Especially against an offense as good as tampa bays. They have a one is 16 wrc plus against righties the riso is 207 Now they get a park factor upgrade in going to baltimore as well. So Trying to find issues with this stack can't really find too many Outside of the potential forcing rain in this game. So check back on that for sure But I think that the rays are a priority against harvey for tonight as far as the value plays You could go joy wendl. Eh, you know, it's fine. He's there. He's a guy, you know, could be fine But i'm really hoping brett phillips gets the start here. He may not so again Keep that in mind similar to arroyo. He may not start but phillips is really fun if he does He has a 260 iso against righties a lot of fly balls I would want to get him in there if he does want to play for today great salary saver at $2,500 So brett phillips official stamp of approval for today if he gets in there because we need those salary savings He's got upside great matchup. So check out the raise lineup set up a window if you have to but to me phillips is the guy if he can find his way in there Our third stack also high salary but also has some value plays there That is the toronto blue jays facing matt manning manning is a different picture that he was earlier in the year because He's changed some things up But I still think we can stack against this current version of manning Specifically manning added a sinker back on july 26th It is a new pitch for him But the pitching staff said he's been working on it for a bit and he had to change something up So it makes sense he would do this and it means that the old data on manning Is pretty easy to throw out We're up to a five star sample on manning with that sinker and his fly ball rate is down to 36 percent that is an improvement from where it was But it comes with a 14 strikeout rate and a six percent walk rate that means he's letting up balls and play 80 percent of the time 42 percent of those balls and play are well hit That's why is z our rate in the sample is 6.04 And it's that high despite some soft matchups. He's faced baltimore twice. He faced cleveland once And you would expect a guy to do pretty well against that string of teams Didn't fare that well now space in the blue jays. They have a 114 w rc plus against righties with a 198 iso They don't strike out that much So I do love that manning is tinkering trying to change things up trying to adapt to the big leagues It shows the willingness to be malleable and that's good. That's great for a young guy I just haven't seen enough yet to say That he's fixed the past issues which does push me to stack the jays against him here I'm not going to talk about the jays since alejandro kerrk moved up in the order He's been batting sixth quite a bit recently, which is high enough to party for sure against righties kerrk has a 47 percent fly ball rates his iso is just okay at 169 But he's 21 a dollars. I can live with that for sure I would also use cori dickerson at $2,600 if I need some extra salary savings So kerrk dickerson the two guys to turn to here if kerrk is in the lineup He may not play over maguire, but um if he does play again official stamp approval. So arroyo dollbeck Brett phillips joey wendell Cori dickerson alejandro kerrk We have lowest salaryed ways to get exposure to these really good offenses And I want to take advantage of that to make it easier to get to aerinola for tonight Speaking of the Phillies, let's move now to things to watch. I think that offense has good dinger upside tonight Makes them pretty interesting for one offs. They're facing taylor widner and widner is Not a guy I really want to stack against because he gets strikeouts. He walks a lot of guys, but He does let up a 42 hard hit rate and a 51 fly ball rate That is the perfect recipe for one offs. That'll clearly put me on bryce harper. That one's pretty obvious But brad miller's pretty solid with rites. Hoskins now being done for the year. Didi gregorius otabel herrera All those guys work for one offs too. So Definitely check out the Phillies. I might not get there for a full stack. Maybe I will if I need to use miller herrera and gregorius for for sour savings, but I think they're better for one offs than for full stacks Glenn otto is making his debut for the royals tonight and he's facing the astros so Sick timing on the royals part to call him up for that Otto part of the joey gallow trade got a ton of strikeouts in double a He hasn't been as big of a force there in triple a and it makes sense the big jump from double a to triple a But I do think that I'm willing to stack against him here Given the dip he's had in strikeouts at triple a The reason the astros are not higher on this list is because they don't have a lot of tape on this guy We'll sometimes see teams disappoint when they're seeing a pitcher for the first time So that's the one downside here. Still a good stack, but that keeps them from being a great stack Finally, I also like the chicago white socks in the crosstown classic today. They're facing keegan thompson He's stretching out to be a starter now It doesn't seem to have like starter level stuff though. He has a low strikeout rate as a reliever Let's have a lot of hard contact. He's he's had good results this year as erra is like 2.66 or so But I would not expect those good results to continue as he goes longer in games So the white socks definitely work. Eloy Jimenez is under salaryed even at $34. He's the middle of a slump, but he did go deep last night So I think Eloy Jimenez a good option in terms of one-offs if you're stuck in the middle range at outfield Let's finish up here with the home run calls for today going right back to that Phillies game Mentioned that the the contact profile wider allows is tremendous for some dingers So gimme brice harper as a guy who should go deep for tonight. It's a boring call But hey, that's why we're here price harper and I also would say that the home run prop on harper pretty long I think it's like plus 270 or so shouldn't be that long should be shorter price harper good bet But also my home run call in the boring range for tonight the fun one I will go to bobby dollbeck double dong last night for him. Maybe means he doesn't qualify for fun But hey, I mean he's bat nine facing a lefty tends to see the ball a lot better against lefties and Ellen not a big strikeout guys so great situation for bobby dollbeck So the home run calls for today price harper and bobby dollbeck Hoping to go out on a high note for this weekend That is all that we have here for today on the solo shot But as mentioned big day coming up here on the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed austin swain's ufc dfs Preview already posted up on the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed breaking down this weekend's card NASCAR podcast coming up 10 30 on youtube and up on the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed after that Make sure you are subscribed to the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed wherever you get your podcasts and as always If you like what you hear leave us a rating and review check out the 4 p.m. Stream Later on today as well youtube twitch facebook and twitter if you have questions for me before 4 p.m I am on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s You can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast big Thank you to everyone for tuning in for today. Good luck today Have a fantastic weekend. We'll talk to you once again next week This has been the solo shot right here on the fan dual podcast network