 Good afternoon everybody Good, thank you. Good afternoon Thank you for coming out on the day after a long holiday weekend and a rainy afternoon and I am very heartened that we have a Lot of people coming here this afternoon for an event on the Central Africa Republic. That's a good sign My name is Nancy Lindborg. I'm the president of the United States Institute of Peace and we're delighted to have you here today This is very much the kind of Road to peace that US IP is interested in being a part of we were founded by Congress 30 years ago to look for very practical solutions for how do you prevent manage? and recover from violent conflict and we are pleased to co-sponsor this event with the Great Lakes Policy Forum which Provides a platform for government civil society Academics and the diaspora to come together to share information on Central Africa Republic's conflict Dynamics and to really brainstorm solutions and so we have a terrific panel here today editors and authors of a Book called making sense of the Central Africa Republic and it's a very important timing for this conversation today as we look at The December elections and conversations on constitutional reform in the Central Africa Republic We of course for those who have been following We we just had the visit of the Pope that concluded successfully and safe safely this morning and You know, we have an opportunity. We're at yet another one of those moments where we're in the midst of a transition and looking at how to apply various peace building tools and there are a lot of lessons that are available for us to learn and so the conversation today is about Understanding what do we need to learn and how do we move forward and how do we help? Central Africa Republic pull itself out of this spin cycle of conflict that it's been in and We have some wonderful experts here to talk with us today about that This presentation is being webcast and we will be taking questions From both the audience and from our Twitter audience. So please use the cash tag the hashtag car US IP C. A. R. US IP and I would like to start by introducing Tatiana Karyana's who will open with some thoughts on The moment that we're in right now and some of the challenges ahead of us Tatiana is the co-editor of making sense of the Central Africa Republic and she's the author of three of the chapters She's the deputy director of the social science research councils Conflict prevention and peace forum. She's a political science scientist a seasoned field researcher and Widely published on political mobilization and rebel governance. So perfect for this conversation She's also a former Jennings Randolph fellow here at US IP. So I'm delighted to turn the floor over to you Tatiana Thanks very much Nancy and thanks also to all of you for for coming out So soon after after a long a long holiday Let me just talk a little bit about the genesis of the book the reasons we wrote the book I'll go over some of the broad themes and then some of the conclusions that we came up with in the book and then my My fellow contributors here will fill in some of the some of the details We first started discussing this book in late 2012 just as car was descending into yet another cycle of violence we had Met in in New York in January 2013 for an expert brainstorming That I had been asked to put together for for the UN and this was in response to the UN Security Council's call for a Strategic review of UN engagement in in car and this This brainstorming had followed an earlier one that we had done at the request of then SRSG Margaret Valked and Bongi to try to understand Regional trends that might affect the trajectory of of of peace and peace building in in in CAR we realized in At that point that there was a real gap in in the literature there was a lot At least an increase of interest in in CR, but very very little literature either policy literature or academic literature and we we realized that we really had accumulated a good body of knowledge in in this group and Saw this really as an opportunity to fill a gap by pulling it all together to help us and others make sense of of of of CAR Particularly because CR Has now become a real testing ground for a variety of peace building interventions both regional and and international We had two workshops workshop the chapters one at Sciences Po in in February 2014 and one later in New York at the SSRC so The chapters themselves went through a really rigorous process of of discussion and and review and the contributors to the book are a Diverse group and we saw it deliberately a diverse group of academics practitioners political scientists anthropologists and and so on so This is the book and if you haven't seen it I can pass it around if you'd like Better yet. You can you can order a copy There are three broad themes that run across all 12 chapters First is that all the chapters share the understanding that the Central African state Can only be understood as part of a broader system of historical relationships within CAR within the region and beyond so So while CAR has often been called a periphery of a periphery to quote Dennis Cordell Rather than focus on the determining role of the center We probe the workings of political and economic life at the periphery As well and conclude that in CAR even peripheries are centers of something So this also had implications on how we chose to treat the the recent so-called Celica crisis in the book The crisis and we make this point emphatically in the book did not begin with the Celica So we deal with this story throughout the book and not in one single chapter. It would have been easy and convenient to have a chapter called the Celica and the Antibalaka and You won't find that chapter in In in in this book We thought this would run counter to the point that we're trying to make that Rather than a shapeless amorphous space What we see in CAR instead is a complex hive of competing authorities Across the region that are born of specific historical Relationships and dynamics. So this did not start two years ago There there there are historical antecedents that are important to understand The second set of themes that you'll find throughout the chapters has to do with the nature of the CR state and the modes of accumulation Associated with it. So we have several chapters that deal with the various sources of accumulation Predation and insecurity in CAR. So this explains why we have a chapter on elite political economy and one on the political economy of the day-to-day lives of ordinary people which includes for example the role of witchcraft and superstition and spiritual Security we also have a chapter on the history of concessionary Politics of the Central African state we're huge part of the history of where huge parts of the country's economy Has historically been contracted out to outsiders to others. So the a privatized State if you will we also have a chapter on the the particular role that diamonds play in the Central African imaginary and their relationship a particular relationship To violence if only we have a chapter on the micro history of Pekka sank those of you who've been following car I've heard of this neighborhood called Pekka sank. It was until recently Bongies most vibrant market neighborhood and what has happened to Pekka sank is a snapshot of What has shaped the lives of Muslims in Central African society? To to date so We think that these chapters and this diversity of chapters Collectively help explain Why most Central Africans see the state that this is to quote Stephen Smith who has two chapters in the book Both has a painful absence and a hurtful presence a Third theme of the book relates the history of cars long decline and the role of international actors both from from The sub region the broader region and and and and outside the region One chapter in fact Larry's probes how Central African elites themselves Explained the decline which they see as not having been inevitable a number of chapters look at the various structural Institutional and contextual challenges of the many international regional peace and humanitarian efforts in car over the last two decades So what are some of the lessons and I'll quickly list five of them that come out of the the the book well one key shortcoming that that We find across all of these chapters is the tendency our tendency to understand the Central African Republic Through narratives developed elsewhere So it's either been described as spillover from Darfur or The historical long historical connections with its southern neighbor the Congo the DR Congo and Congo Brazzaville, but dear Congo in particular going back to the immediate post-independence period those historical connections have been often ignored in in recent years another example is that the ICC's the international criminal courts first and so far only case on car It's really been more about the DRC in prosecuting sexual violence than it has been about Central African Republic itself The huge investments in fighting the LRA Have been more about Some would argue US counterterrorism policy in the region and Boziza's interest in massive US assistance than what the LRA was really doing in Sierra at the time Most recently to give you a more recent example a Washington Post article Equated Celica actually called Celica and Islamist Islamist rebels equating Celica with Boko Haram al-Qaeda in the Mahrab and ISIL The point we've made in the in the book is that while the current this most recent cycle of violence may be using the idiom of Religion it really is a conflict that's more about identity citizenship and belonging who is truly Central African And maybe some of our contributors may will point out the the danger that this may of course Become a self-fulfilling prophecy, especially as media narratives that this is a religious conflict Begin to shape the course of of the conflict itself and mobilize new actors like like the Gulf states Second lesson is that we collectively the region and Actors outside the region failed to profit from periods of peace to build either necessary infrastructures The violence in car has peaked and and and and and ebbed during the periods of non-violence There was a failure to hand over to properly hand over to development actors so We never did Uh Make good use of those of those periods between the spikes of of violence third lesson is that Each crisis has been treated as if it were the first of its kind in this country And yet we've had two decades of interventions So that's why we We took a historical approach to to the book these roots are are fairly fairly long and another lesson that's that In looking at our our responses Right now Another lesson is that we seem to keep repeating as Nancy said old formulas that haven't seemed to work and The formula seems to be some form of a national dialogue Some semblance or at least the promise of of of disarmament Elections and then everyone runs for the for the exits and some of us at least think that we are About to do this again with premature elections In in in December December 27th Given the very very difficult conditions on on on the on the ground so As as Nancy said that the Pope's visit Yesterday and today to see our Was historic This is it was met positively For those of you who followed it both by Christians and Muslims across Central African society It we hope has increased cars visibility at a very very critical Moment And we hope that this his message of hope and reconciliation has been Heard but as you might as we might discuss During the Q&A Reconciliation in cars needed on on multiple levels. It's not just Muslim and Christian. It's rural urban It's political elites the population So it's it's still a long a long road ahead. So thanks. I'll stop there Great. Thanks Tatiana. I'd like to introduce now a Very knowledgeable Set of panelists. I'm looking forward to the conversation to build on Thank you for that foundation Tatiana as I mentioned we have with us additional editors and chapter authors of The Making Sense of the Central Africa Republic so in addition to Tatiana we have another Jennings Randolph fellow Joining us Louisa Lombard who is the co-editor of the volume and an assistant professor of anthropology at Yale University And she wrote chapter 7 the autonomous zone conundrum armed conservation and rebellion of Northeastern car We have ambassador Lawrence Woolers who is the former US ambassador to car with us and former deputy SRSG and Currently a fellow at the meridian international center who wrote the chapter on the Central African elite perspective on the struggle of Central Africa Republic Lidio Sakai Did I say that right good? I practiced Who's an independent researcher focusing on armed groups? He wrote chapter 12, which is unclaimed land the Lord's resistant army in car Dr. Roland Marshall, who's a senior research fellow at the National Center for scientific research at Science Po in Paris He's author of being rich being poor wealth and fear in the Central Africa Republic Which is chapter 3 and then we will be joined for a video response from Fawse Colombe who is a national of the Central Africa Republic and he will be joining us from there by Via video and an expert on local development in civil society He wrote chapter 4, which is local dynamics in the Pakeh sank district of Bangui So you see the breadth of the issues that both the book and our panelists cover. So I'm delighted To plunge in and I Roland I want to start with a question with you Tatjana has very helpfully Reminded us that the last three years where we have once have been been focused and galvanized by Another round of crisis another round of humanitarian Disaster in in the Central Africa Republic that this this is not the first time But it has been a three years of intense action And so how would you see the conflict of the last three years? evolving and How do you see this conflict? How would you describe the nature of it especially in connection with with previous years of this these crises moments that erupt? Maybe I work on different conflicts area I work on Marie I work on Somalia I work on on Sudan Darfur. I haven't seen what I what I saw in In Sierra. I believe is one of the most serious conflicts The international community has to address and I believe it is one of the most serious Because what we are facing is for the first time and I talk as an academic a sense of anomy That I haven't seen in other places when I was in a retrain in the early 1980s or after in Sudan whatever violence took place you add a certain sense of rationality you add on this This feeling that the the social fabric the very social fabric of a society was basically Evaporating by the day is what has been happening in Sierra That is why we have to address it and not address it as very Conventionally as it's going to as is happening right now, but maybe slightly maybe reflect more deeply and be more Original in the kind of solution we could maybe help Central African people to do what I see is Okay, I could answer very quickly say To a large extent what we witness today is a consequence of two major crises in the region What has been happening in Darfur? Don't forget that the the the basic arm groups that became Celica were actually created in 2005 at the time The Darfur conflict was you know changing its nature becoming much more militia oriented and as well The conflict the succession conflict in Chad that started main same year in in in Jemena And that basically brought a number of military operators in the region some being involved Just a couple of years before with Boise but a number of them being integrated into the army then Release from the army looking for jobs and on basically tenting having some sense of adventure in Northern Sierra and then at one point in Bangui Now I do not believe this explain The whole situation we can't understand what has been happening with Celica if we do not take into account other Elements other dynamics for instance The fact and on why we have been so blind on them the fact that despite a Decade that was described as let us need normalization Boise is a first years actually life expectancy get down While we were we are the peace agreement the the presence of the state actually was reduced on and kept reducing in the countryside on focusing increasingly on on the capital Bangui and not elsewhere the fact that Well sought reforms and doors by the international community such as the diamond law a past in 2009 was certainly one element triggering the current crisis because This law so nice on paper was enforced in a very debatable way and basically move a number of economic actors into the armed opposition against this regime But again, it doesn't explain Why these Molecular violence has been achieved and to do that we have to go. I think on the broader historical perspective. I think we have to look at the the very arbitrary Abituriness of the state. It's not it's Everywhere in Central Africa. We find that but I believe in Sierra is certainly a climax The fact that the the state is its agents could do whatever they want There is no there are many laws on actually often good laws None of them are enforced none of them are respected and and you have this feeling that actually you're insecure Whatever is your status, especially when you wear a Muslim's Because whatever whatever the law the man in front of you because he wear a uniform because he is Someone from the state then could do whatever he wants with you and these are the questions that have To be discussed and is not organizing elections that is going to provide the good answers Thank you for that and you know, there have been many discussions about the timing the desirability of elections They've been postponed. They are now on the books We are looking at elections for for December and so we are going to go to a video of Fauzi Colombe Tatiana you will interpret for us. I understand Okay, so are we ready to roll? Love to have his take on so what are the key challenges as we're looking at the elections Against a backdrop of a lot of conversation. What are the challenges? Okay, so What do you think are the biggest challenges of the election of the next month in Central Africa Okay, thank you. I think the future elections that are going to intervene The 13th December and the 27th December We are going to do it with some challenges The first challenge is the question of the identity of the Central African because at the origin of this crisis, I think one of the questions that has been asked is the remission because of the nationality of a party, in particular Central Africa the remission question of the nationality and so today if we have to go to the elections Who will vote and who will not vote? It would be necessary that we clarify who is Central African and who is not because we have done today we have made a role of the population In what condition the role of the Muslim community, the one who is in Bangui, but it is also the one who has moved in the neighboring countries has been made Today if we go to the elections, those who have elected, are they Central African or are they not Central African? Is the question which is being asked today is clarified in legal terms because what is said in the constitution, what will be said in the future constitution and what will be said in terms of law in Central Africa, that is the first question. The second question which is also important is the question of the practical organization, the logistics of these elections It is true that there is a certain number of problems in relation to the state of the road in order to at least have the national authority of the elections even if there is an accompaniment today of the international community but today we see all the problems that we have experienced in relation to the organization of the role, the carpeting at this level when we ask ourselves questions, how will these elections be done? A problem that is also important is the question of security Today, we have never had a time of calm in this country, we have known a few months of calm but more and more, the more we approach the elections, the more tension there is of all sides, there are attacks and the situation of insecurity poses a real problem How can we go to elections in these conditions? But we also ask ourselves the question how did we leave the situation when we arrived there knowing that the international community or the international forces who are on the field have not taken the measure of the situation, they have not been able to prepare these elections in terms of security, the armed men are even more, in fact they have a great capacity of innocence than before, so how can we go to elections in these conditions? Even if we manage to organize elections, I imagine in the worst case, we will go to elections But the results that will be made of these elections, will these results be accepted by the population? And if there is a violent contestation, how will we get out of it? Today, if we manage to set up a regime, as we could say democratically elected What miracle will this regime do? That the transition regime has not done to bring peace in the country? Here are all the questions we can ask ourselves in relation to these elections Who are, it is true, it is necessary to go to elections It is necessary today that we end this transition But can we go to elections in the current conditions? Thank you Father Okay, Tatiana Just a quick reminder that December 13th is the constitutional referendum and the 27th of December are the elections So Fauzi said that there are three big challenges to elections One is the identity of the Central African And Fauzi says that this is at the heart of the crisis The citizenship of Muslims in Central Africa has been put into question over the years This is one of the triggers of this crisis So who will vote, who will not vote? There has been some voter registration among Muslim communities Both in IDP camps and in refugee camps But under what conditions has this registration taken place? So Fauzi says that we need to clarify who's Central African and who isn't in legal terms He says what does the current constitution say, current law say about this What will the future constitution say about this? The second challenge Fauzi identified was logistics And very difficult complex logistical challenges for elections Everything from transport and impassable roads But he points out that there are enormous amounts of electrical materials that need to be moved across the country And also of course to camps, to refugee camps outside the country And that even with the support of the international community He wonders if this in the end will be logistically feasible in this short time The third challenge that Fauzi identifies is that of security He points out that the closer we get to elections the more tensions mount And that there are clashes between both sides So he asks how can we hold elections in these conditions He also asks the question of how did we allow the security situation to deteriorate to this point And he says that the international forces on the ground have either failed to understand And read the situation, the security situation Or have been unable to prepare these elections in the secure conditions that they require Fauzi points out that armed groups retain an even greater capacity for violence today So again how can we go to elections? He concludes by saying that even if we manage to go to elections And he says that the worst case scenario is that the elections will hold Whatever the results may be they will be contested by one side or the other And then he finishes by saying that if we're able to install a new regime What miracles will this one be able to achieve that the transitional government has not been able to achieve Given these actual conditions So identity, logistics, security, legitimacy He's really identifying four significant challenges So with that as the diagnosis I'm going to, Larry I'm going to turn to you and then to Roland With the easy question of, you know The big question is, so how do you between now and then What should car policy makers, the international community What should be done to try to make these elections peaceful and successful There's a corollary question that Fauzi just raised Which is should they occur against that backdrop Yeah thanks A series of really difficult questions I absolutely agree with everything that Fauzi said In terms of the difficulties in taking on the elections now At the same time I think we have to go ahead and have the elections And a couple reasons for that One is the logistics pieces as difficult as they are Aren't likely to get any better anytime soon If we say we're going to wait until we can have good elections We could be waiting a really long time Secondly, if you look at the number of people running for president It's somewhere between 25 or 50 What that shows you is there's really nobody in the country Who really represents a sizable group of people And so it's likely to come into power As being perceived as the legitimate representative of a sizable number of people And that doesn't matter how good an election you're going to have So thinking that you can wait so that who is going to come out But will be more legitimate isn't going to happen And then thirdly and most importantly The existing transition has run its course People are tired of it People don't believe in it anymore We can go into detail about the existing transitional government But I think certainly it was a very difficult situation But the fact that you had a continually bouncing ball of responsibility Between the government and the various international community actors The mediator, the AU, Minouska, France, whoever you want to be Everybody was able to say whatever is going on is somebody else's problem And so it's time to be done with the transition And for those reasons I think we have to have an election That is admittedly not going to be a very good election And so the real question becomes what do you do afterwards? Whoever comes into power, how do you arrange it So that within two or three months they haven't lost all support And trust of the population Because they'll be coming in again with not much of a base of power With no army, with no administration Completely dependent upon the national community for money You can easily imagine that the next president will be Will lose credibility within a very short time But I think that is really the question And there's not going to be any one answer to it But clearly security is the number one question This is what people want, especially in the south Ironically, I was just talking about that The north is actually more secure than the south right now But I think they're going to have to look at How do you rebuild an army As difficult and complicated and delicate as that's going to be As long as all of the guns in the country are controlled and owned By those who are not supposed to have them And the authority that's supposed to have them doesn't have guns You're not going to have an answer to the security problem So you're going to have to start addressing that Start rebuilding an army And if you do it well There are center-African military officers Who are as well trained as anybody in the region If you do it well And of course that's going to be very, very hard to do But you start that and then you also have to start looking at How can you build a way at the base of power Of those who have the guns And that means by siphoning off their rank and file Who after all aren't being paid very well And don't live very well So what can you do? Do you do massive public works projects Where you can pull those people out? I think the conflict resolution work at the community level That a lot of NGOs have been doing Are really important and should be really bumped up In terms of support And then you have to look at the money side of this Because we talked about this being a conflict About identity and citizenship Well it's also really a conflict about making money And a lot of that has to do with the cross-border trade That makes the warlords possible If car was an island The situation would look very different From the way it looks right now Because the al-Qa-teams and Alex-Darasses And the Nur-Dina-Dans and Damans They are a part of an economic and security network That goes back and forth across the borders And you fold in the poachers, etc, etc You don't control that in some way And begin to make it less attractive to have guns You're not going to get back You're not going to restore a sense of country and security That's going to be really hard But if you don't figure that one out You're not going to get to where you want to be That's a nice tidy list of easily achieved things DDR, rebuilding the army, the economic rebuilding Roland, you put a lot of thought on the economic piece Both before and after Do you agree with this priority list? How would you go forward? I believe sometimes a crisis is very complex But could have very simple answers I'm not saying solutions, but at least pieces of solutions The first one, we talk about elections Now, I defy you to find any clear political program By one of these 43 declared candidates to the elections So all of them, they promise you Paradise on earth, without the pope Or with the pope, depends With the pope, I'm sorry, or not But no one is very specific on key issues What's going to happen, who is going to go to court For what he has done For what, actually, what level of seriousness of crime Who is going to be reimbursed his losses Are the Muslims welcome to come back And settle again in their house or in their shops That have been occupied by people who allegedly Willingly or not, you know, maybe are there Or maybe people who lost everything And tried to just to survive So all those very precise, concrete questions for the people Are not answered by any politicians If I were the international community Or one of those wonderful diplomats working in Bungie I will go to all those candidates and ask them With journalists to make public statements To explain what they are going to do On those very specific questions Not on Paradise, but on those questions Because that's the life of ordinary people And that's what ordinary people want to hear The second thing I will do is I will have to negotiate a number of symbolic reforms Because some of the reforms are very expensive To have a certificate of birth for my kid For my child is very expensive If my name is Ahmet But if I'm Congolese on my first name is Didier Then it's 2000 French francs, three dollars But if I'm called Ahmet I will have to pay 30, 50, maybe 100 Depends the day If I get this reform and force Which means a number of clerks Punish because they are blackmailing Muslims To get their paper And just make it very public That the state is working whatever is your religion If you are a citizen of this country Then you have the right to get your official papers The same price Then I think we are going to win support Among the Muslim community We will do what should have been done From the very beginning is try to enlarge The differences between communities and armed groups We see, of course, these goals Far and narrow according to the events But this sense that armed groups Represent their own purposes And have their own ambitions Which are not the one of the community They claim to represent It's a lesson, it's a point That should have been made And made again and again By all international actors It hasn't been the case It hasn't been the case Maybe because of the weakness of the government Maybe because the international community Is de-organizing elections And that takes a hell of time To do that in Sierra And therefore do not think about the other More social or political aspects of the problem The third point I agree with Larry I will talk and I underline in bold Talk about the DDR DDR on the new security sector reform It's very complex in Central African Republic Because why actually do we need an army That spends its time extorting money From lay people What the army is for To fight the Chadian army Then no need to spend money The war is already lost Or to secure the borders Nearly impossible at this stage Or to again be in the cities And set up roadblocks And extort money So this discussion has to come public It happens in certain quarters Of the UN compound It happens in certain meetings Of the international community It's not public Which means if you are an ordinary Sierra citizen You don't hear this discussion What the army should be for And then this army How it should be built And you know the international community Is full of goodwill on Sierra It's not always true if we look other crises But for Sierra Really it's an international community Full of goodwill That has money for DDR Whatever it is There are a lot of discussions To frame it As well as money To contain local violence Because the problem raised By the Celica and the Antibalaca Are not exactly the same In terms of the way they are embedded In the society And as well the way you could disband Dismantle them Or integrate them It's very complicated But there are quite a fair amount of money To deal with the two problems Which are different But of course are the two Faces of the same coin But the international community doesn't do it And not because it's bad Not because it's ignorant It's because it's busy on the elections So Roland, your contention is that The elections are a distraction From some of the critical issues I believe that if we go to election We need the election Everyone is fed up with the current president Corruption Predatory behavior of Inner cycle and so on So people want to go to election But that's what people want Now we have to reflect If we get a queue in front of A polling station And that because someone is claimed To be a foreigner will be Killed Then what's going to happen For the whole election For the whole country If we get An electoral process Is not only casting a vote Is allowing the other citizens To have the same right As yourself to select The leader of this country So Roland let me just interrupt you on this Because this was exactly the challenge That Fawzi brought up In terms of identity and security So with that as the challenge What should we be doing about that Is what I'm saying Is not only an issue of security He said it, we don't know What is your citizenship Are you Muslim For instance Fawzi I have friends Who know him actually He's a Chadian He's from Chad His father comes from Chad And he himself Now is Central African But you know he's just a third generation So why should he vote And so those questions have to be answered Not by the international community They have to be answered by this government And by the political elites All those 43 Candidates and no one No one of them Want to answer this question This is why the international community Is so proactive Not to say to give the good answer The legal answer To push those politicians Who pretend to be Have constituencies To take their responsibility So you have a number of Homework that has to be done Before getting the cue In front of the polling station This hasn't been done But elections are absolutely necessary So are we on track To do some of that work Through the constitutional process That you mentioned Tatiana Is there a hope of addressing Some of this in advance of the election Any of the three of you Want to answer The text of the constitution Is ready But it's the constitution People are going to approve Or not The charter The transition charter Is enforced And there is no contestation On the nationality rule The problem is as in quite a few Other countries in the region Like in Chad One thing is to have a law passed By the parliament Another is to have this law Enforced by the state agents An annuledge By the politicians This is the duty So this is the challenge We are where we are We're going to have elections There will be a president Who comes out of it We can hazard a guess It's going to be a Christian From the south That's where most of the population is And the real question Is what people are going to want Is security So they can get started In the way that they were And so that is really the question And that new president Isn't going to be able to do that By himself or herself Mostly men here In this case And there is urgency here One of the things I think we In the 18 months Of this Second to transition While we've waited For conditions to become ripe A culture of violence That violence is normal That did not used to be A part of this country When we were there People talk about cars Being a land of endemic violence And certainly there are Pockets of that But Bongi was a very safe town Much of the country That those who they did control Was very safe We now have a culture Of violence That has become normal Over the last 18 months As we waited for something That happened If we go into a new administration And things continue Like this The longer you let it continue The deeper that culture of violence Becomes So there is urgency in moving on security Well and I want to bring Lady Owen on this because One of the ways in which the U.S. Has gotten involved on the security Front with our troops was When the LRA The Lord's Resistance Army Started moving across the borders Into a car and That brought the U.S. Into engagement In a different way What have we learned from that Lady Owen Thank you Includable quotes Hashtag car USIP I think that I first of all came into this Via the LRA Follow them Into C.A.R. And many people particularly Outside of the U.S. Whenever I get asked this question There is that hint of You know the conspiracy theory That the U.S. did this for Particular reasons other than And I disagree I actually think That perhaps naively That they did the right thing President Obama made the right Decision by signing this bill And sending in the U.S. Advisors what's known now as Operation Observing Compass And I think largely the effect Has been positive Very slow It's now the fifth year Since the bill was signed And the fourth since the And there are about 120 Special forces who help Primarily they've got an army Under the AU auspices What they call the AURTF The regional task force Against the LRA About 20 or 30 of them Operate in C.A.R. In Obo and I think most recently Samoanja which is in the northeast About 30 miles west Of Sudan the so-called Kafiakini border where Kafiakini has been hauled up For the last few years And It's interesting for me to hear All these perspectives obviously When the book was written That sort of more macro issues And then to see them To see their effect on Sort of a more micro level Particularly in Southeast and C.A.R. What people refer to as This periphery or rather an Autonomous zone and the Which the U.S. army supports Has highlighted Some of these major issues This lack of security for instance In many ways The UPDF has become the De facto security provider For the people of Southeast and C.A.R. And That has Positives and negatives For instance It was very strange to see after Going into C.A.R. and feel safe In Bungie but not in Obo or Mboki in Southeast and C.A.R. And to have that turn after To have that change completely After Seleka took over and it was safer To be in Obo Than in Bungie Precisely because the UPDF did Not allow the Seleka to enter To go past Raffae and Come into the Southeast Where the Ugandans and the U.S. Are based And by becoming A provider of Security the UPDF has also Played their own Sort of Not preferable actors But they have also sort of Maintained a status quo that might Not necessarily be beneficial or Liked by the local population There was an issue for instance Last January in 2014 Where the local official Had trouble Not like by the population and wanted To be ousted and the UPDF intervened Killed a couple of people, injured a few And sort of kept the pre-fame power Which As presented Which was also described by somebody From the area there Just like the UPDF is our Army, our police, our Gendarmerie, we don't have any choice And that has been a bit of a dilemma For the population on one hand Do not want to be attacked by the Or the Seleka for the matter But on the other have to put up with You know Some of the sexual Misbehavior By the abuse of sexual abuse Of human rights abuse against population By the UPDF There this summer some of these Problems continued But they seemed at a very individual level In other words committed by individual soldiers So I personally think that apart from Being helped to fight Against the LRA, one of the other roles That the U.S. has played is to Be the eyes on the ground And temper the behavior of the Ugandans Where Either by their presence themselves Or by bringing people like myself Who go there to visit and write reports And draw a list, they have kept the Ugandan Soldiers in a sort of more Kind of positive and well behaved And actually focusing on catching People in a while. But while on one hand the U.S. Army support has been I think in terms of A dollar value, I think some say more than Half a billion dollars or something like that If you also include The classified expenditure The Corresponding sort of the other side of the coin The humanitarian Age has been miniscule In comparison I think Less than 5% or so of that entire amount Of money And that's something that It's going to be a problem, particularly If we want to talk about Lasting change There has been nothing there that suggests In two or three years from now We will say the U.S. Army was here Or the U.S. government helped Maybe accept the odd get rate Bottle or whatever those guys use there So there are Projects on the ground that People like from civil society To finance for a long time There is that road That connects Oboa with South Sudan That Trying to help to build for a long time There are clinics that need help There is a lot of work that USAID can do Can help with And those are I think In terms of what really can be done That will continue to help Postconi Or whoever next comes Where it comes into power actually Great, thank you And you know you mentioned A theme that is In a couple of different places in the book And that is the lack of sustained Engagement By the international community As these cycles of crisis go forward And I think what's Termed the accordion Of humanitarian assistance Which you have a big Punch of a humanitarian assistance Then that subsides and there's No development assistance that goes And so it leaves these gaps which is A common unfortunately A common theme that we hear In other countries around the world Another theme that we've talked about Both here and in the book is What has morphed into Just over the last few years into More of a religious conflict Which is also a deeply unsettling Trend that we're seeing in other parts Of the world where it becomes More intractable With the pope's visit are we seeing How do we keep this from Becoming so deeply entrenched How do we move back And what are the big Lessons that we've learned From the 20 years of peace building What are the things that have Worked especially as we Look against this backdrop of things That haven't worked and so Louise I'm going to put you on the spot If there are some lessons that you Can pull forward for us That can help us chart Away forward Well that's a difficult question But I'll see what I can do to answer it So the moments When attention tends to cluster On the Central African Republic Tends to be moments of crisis Moments when there's an emergency And when what seems most pressing To do is to diagnose Failure to see what's Not working and try to do some Small thing to fix it in the short Term that's kind of life support Mode of engaging with the Problems in the Central African Republic Well we've been doing this For about 20 years now Since the army mutinies in the Mid-1990s and as Roland Pointed out life expectancy Has gone down and Violence has only become more Entrenched and more important As a political tool in the country So you know with this Book one of the things that we wanted Was to sort of stop and ask How did we get here and To try to assess some of the underlying Dynamics behind all of this And in order to answer That question we found that We had to start with a question that On the face of it seems kind of naive But that actually is quite profound Once you look into it in depth And that is the question of What is the Central African Republic Or put otherwise instead of Working to figure out in what ways Is the Central African Republic A failed state or fragile What if we flip that around to Try to see in what ways is The Central African Republic robust You know what are the kind of robust Dynamics that are underlying the way Things that our politics are Working in this place And what we found Is that if you do if you want to Understand the Central African Republic In terms of what it is as opposed to In terms of what it is not Or what you we hope it might be At some point in the future You really have to flip a lot of Ideal type assumptions About how states work upside down So there tends to be for instance The idea that when you have A state there's a Fundamental distinction between A public sphere and A private sphere and The private sphere is where business Happens and then the public sphere Is the state and civil society And public welfare and security And those kinds of things. Well when We look at the history of the Central African Republic we find that during the Colonial era the French Government leased the entirety of The country's territory to concessionary Companies to run for A profit and administer as They saw fit. The Central Government just didn't have the money The resources, the manpower To undertake those kinds of tasks And that legacy remains with Us where we have still The government resources very Centralized in the capital And the people who are In power see their role as Primarily contracting with External actors to come in And you know operate You know operate both Governance and different kinds Of exploitation of resources and Other things on behalf of people Of the Central African Republic. So you know I can't Remember if it made it into the book Or not but one of our authors recounts A meeting that he had with The former president of the Central African Republic Francois Bozise In which Bozise said Development that's not my job That's the job of you guys Of the international community And that could sound Like a very cynical kind of statement But again if we think of what has The African Republic been as A kind of government it's a very Reasonable kind of answer for him To bring that this is a pattern that Has been put in place this kind of Concessionary politics where he Sees his role as negotiating with Outsiders to do stuff on To carry out both governing And extractive enterprises Then another Sort of basic assumption that we Tend to have about states Is that they are primarily Local entities so a state Is a territory with borders And you know everything About this state happens within This particular territory Well first of all the Central African Republic is extremely The borders are extremely porous and They always have been And second of all this is a Policy for which the most Important meetings take place Not within the geographic Area that marks Demarcate as the Central African Republic but in In Jamena, in Nairobi, In Brussels, in Paris, In New York you know all of the Key meetings where key political Decisions are taken and where The key resources for the Furtherance of this government Are disbursed are happening Outside of the country's Territory you know and so And so how would that change The conception of what the Central African Republic is if We really took that as our starting Point rather than taking this Territorially bounded entity of The CAR as our starting point And I think one of the things That it would force us to do Would be to recognize that You know we have to dispense With the idea that we can divide Our analysis of what's going on In CAR into You know Central African Actors on the one side And international or External actors on the other side You know I think we spend a lot We spend far too much time Thinking in terms of us and Them as sort of separate Cultures or separate Entities but what we Really should be doing is thinking About how we are Created, constituted out of our Relationships with each other And it's in those relationships To a very strong Degree shape both the Opportunities and the constraints That we have to try to do Something about this situation And I think this is you know Roland gives some very concrete Examples of this in terms of how There are you know oftentimes A lot of really Serious discussions going on Among people who are Working for different peace Building organizations for instance Trying to think about well you know What are the serious challenges that Happened that we need to take into Account and we're thinking about SSR And these different kinds of programs But they happen within that You know within the Manuska compound And don't happen in an Open kind of way between those People and Central Africans Because again it's thought of as Well we are our this is our team Over here we're working in our Way unto ourselves and they are Working on to themselves and Again that's part of what's making It difficult for people to actually Bring those kinds of issues Out into the open to debate and Make a real you know focus Of the kind of discussion And that brings me to there's A second and really final point Before turning it back over Which is that there's been an Argument recently that has gotten A fair amount of traction I think That says that you know a lot of Peace building are due to sort Of the culture of peace Builders unto themselves And that one of the problems is That contextual information Isn't really valued very Highly and that That's one of the reasons why we Repeat failures for instance is That there isn't enough attention To context well you know All of us who are sitting up here Have all been involved with Tatiana's program the Prevention and peace forum providing Briefings to UN officials You know in our research we spend A lot of time talking not just to International interveners in the Country and thinking about you know Problem solving you know the kinds Of challenges that come up but also Talking with central african government Officials and central africans who Are friends and colleagues you know So it's not so much a problem Of context when we have Those conversations often Often too you know some of the time We tell people things that they didn't Already know but a lot of the time It's more a real back and forth kind Of conversation where we learn some Things they learn some things It's not this repeating of the old Formula to my mind it doesn't seem To be an issue of just that We don't have the contextual Information if we had the Contextual information we would Do things differently The issue seems to be more Again of how You know making Knowledge the basis for Policy sort of taking That step making that connection Explicit and making that Happen and I think that one of the Reasons why it's been difficult to make Contextual Knowledge about all of The kinds of things that we've been talking about Today the kinds of political Real political dilemmas and challenges That are the elephants in the room Talking about car right now One of the reasons why it's been difficult to Take that as a starting point Is that again we tend to think In terms of a Central African Political culture and its problems Unto itself and then External interventions Which we often portray As being kind of altruistic And disinterested rather Than looking at how It's the relationships between And among all of these different kinds Of actors that really constrain And shape what we feel we can do And what we feel we cannot do And what makes it really challenging To try to step out of the normal way Of doing business and You know put into action some of the More creative kinds of solutions That Roland was mentioning Great thank you We have some great twitter questions That I'm going to start with For those of you who Are listening it's Hashtag car USIP So What effect do we think if any The popes visit will have Especially everything that we've Just talked about how will that Change the equation Larry I don't think It's going to have a great impact I don't have a short term impact Certainly talking to people there Everyday and people are ecstatic About the visit but the reality Is The conflict here is The insecurity is not so much About People who Hate each other and are waiting For someone to come in and tell them To stop hating each other People have guns that they are Using For reasons of rent seeking And fortune seeking and as long As it is profitable to do that Then it is risky to have the guns That's going to continue There is one aspect that maybe Might Sound irrelevant for this meeting 10 years or 15 years ago The catholic church basically collapsed In CR There were a number of Money And then there was some issues With Having Six mistresses at the same time So it seems that Five was allowed but six was too much Then All those things were explained In a mess Sunday morning 10.30 Let us say it didn't have a very Attracting effect for People in church In search of God At the opposite What we call the The Protestant The Evangelical churches Developed quite Strongly From the 1980s Those churches are Very interesting Political and social operators They fulfilled a number of functions In the fight Again sorcery In the creation Of the individuation I say in my jargon Sociologist And so many other in the accumulation As well the promotion of work And so on like the colonial apparatus But certainly They have been Consistently anti-Muslim As we witness as well In Chad So what has been happening Over the From the mid 2013 Reassertion of the Catholic Church Into CER I don't want to Discuss all debates All episodes of that But it's something very interesting And as just said Luisa It worked Not Through a pure Central African Internal Dynamics Because actually the vicar In France The Secours Catholic The Caritas Played actually a very important role In France to mobilize The French authorities That were busy on Mali And other issues To focus on CER And of course this had an impact As well on CER So what we see today Is certainly a much stronger Catholic Church In CER Trying to rebuild and catch up In front of the Protestant churches In the country where the elites Is mostly free-mesant So that's quite funny But anyway we should sometimes Smile on CER And the issue of course Will be this competition It's not only a competition For a paradise It's a competition for power Influence And it's going to be To translate into the Political arena as well What we could say As well Supporting Larry's view On the short term the Catholic Church Has a more Pronounced a communical Discourse on engaging Islam and so on So that will ease a bit Relations But of course as free-mesant Or any religious Face in CER It's only a vector Something which could be A face but which often Is power And so in that sense We may believe that sooner or later We will have confrontations As well in the religious arena Not so much between Muslim And Christians but maybe among Christians themselves Thank you for complicating things Further Roland So here's a follow-up question From Peter Jay Savage He talks up on what we discussed earlier And that is how does increased time Before we have elections Equal increased security And What specifically Should the international community Or the car government do To sideline the peace Spoilers So do we have concrete suggestions here For either of those Roland short Yes, you know I shared the skepticism Of Lisa concerning Didier in CERA But it's not because I'm skeptical That I'm against Against it, I believe For instance The The other line The other sl- the outliners I would get it Sorry Made once a statement saying That they are opposed to the CERA military The FACA For the army centrifuge Because first they want to discuss What kind of army should be Set up on what will be their share of the cake Again Remember what I said previously I said we need to talk Now talk doesn't mean implement But talk makes people busy It entertains Relations with Leaders, it makes them understand Sometimes better issues that Do not understand that clearly I must say And they socialize them Into a situation Where an agreement is possible An agreement is wished by everyone Though there are strong Differences of opinions And this hasn't been Done again because I see the international community You know face this Situation with a kind Of military Stands We are the strongest And this is sure The French and the minutia They have professional Military soldiers Well armed Well equipped And so if they face the CERA Especially if they got some support From the French helicopters Or the French combat aircraft They can't make it They will win all battles And so while the question is more Again How we dismantle a group Which is organized but not so organized By proving to The middle quadres That they have other You know options than just getting to war To get to power And this political Work hasn't been done Again, not bad The bad Will, I believe Because first people think That they are so strong that the message Is clear and the message is not clear Among CERECA constituency And so on because People feel that elections Should be The right way to address This issue but you know How could you say that In front of people who never Ever got free and fair Elections in their country In the last, let us be very generous In the last 20 years So you have 30 years So that means that We have to understand That we have to do What we do in many other conflict situations We have to talk to the bad guys We have to talk to them not so much Because we expect to convince them But because we expect to convince Some of their constituencies That there are other options You know, underlined by their bosses And this has been done By very few Central African politicians Who then were labelled Working for CERECA Stupidly by the international community Especially the French And at least the French embassy Because in Paris There are so many differences But this kind of work is possible The Anti-Balakas The Anti-Balakas is a social movement With a great section of it Getting criminalized At this very moment And then as well another section Of it being the FACA Because a core group of FACA Joined very recently The Anti-Balakas So What you have is You have to treat every sector With its own logic The FACA, you have all this debate On the DDR, the news Central African army Should it be an army of projection As it has been Or should it be an army of garrison What are the implications Both in terms of budget In terms of how they will be embedded In the population and so on This debate again may take place Sometimes in one office Of a Ministry of Defense Or maybe at Minuskar Or at the French embassy But not public, it has to be public Another option is Many Anti-Balakas They just reacted on local situations There is money Allocated by the European Union About 30 million euros So it's not for Sierra It's a significant amount But this money has to be debased To entertain To start projects on Economic stabilization Stabilization in the sense And for me mostly economic On the economic side Because most of the use What they want is to recover Some means to have a job So it's not easy The management is very difficult Because we have 1,000 different situations And you will have to spend Sometimes 15,000 dollars In another place Maybe 20,000 dollars So you have 30 millions How could you manage to do that So it's a real issue In terms of management for the donors But we know that this is A large part of the solution This is not the old solution Because there are political issues But this is not done Great, thank you Rolan We have people who are making eyeballs To me that they want to ask a question So I'm going to take You see Right now I'm going to start Back here Number one Number two So Go ahead sir Yes Please introduce yourself We seem to be presented With a picture of many pieces That don't hold together To provide a framework For a solution As pointed out that the Old suggestions from Elections on are inadequate Perhaps to this The idea of a UN Trusteeship has been mentioned In regard to southern south Sudan Is this the time and place To put it into action Okay, UN Trusteeship Go ahead Taking into a Charlie Brown Strategy for Humanity Louise is absolutely a valid point That we need to get past The false dichotomy of us versus them Fact of the matter is we are across the street From the State Department My question Ames mainly at Larry, but also to the entire Panel is what should the US Be doing? If elections are not The solution, what should the US And the international community Be doing differently? We spend a lot of time Complaining about what they are doing We talk about some possible solutions To the very concrete ourselves In what specific things the US should be doing Good, okay, and then Third, Lindsay, right in front of you Thank you, my name is Fokshne from USA1 I totally agree With what I heard you about I do believe that you are missing One key Component To send trust on themselves We are the DNA of this country When Lisa said that At the beginning The country, the state Was divided for Those big companies That explains where we are now Now, what to do Is Just to bring back security First, how will we do it? Lisa said it again External actors That are working for themselves And we have to work on our side Which is wrong We have to be together On the field, and what is not said Do you not hear it here? External actors Do not want to hear anything about Fakas Right now A report I got this morning Businessmen now are Contracting with Fakas To bring their goods from Cameroon The border to Central Africa Now United Nations is Opposed to that We have names, phone numbers What they lost in this Right now I do believe that The Seleca Coming into the game Is a wake up call for us Its atrocities and everything But we need it The Central African Nation, not the states Is coming to life Is there a question? My question is Why don't we form A hybrid forces Minusca, France And Fakas To work this out So combine security forces Well, this is huge We have about two minutes left So I'm going to ask people to be Super fast And succinct in your responses Larry, you got a specific question USG recommendations Well, I think we have to do the elections In part because We have to get beyond the trusteeship I agree, the Central Africans Have to be in a position to take the lead And that's one reason Why we need the elections That doesn't mean it's going to be easy It's going to be a huge leap And we're leaping into the unknown And I hope we're going to have a parachute When we get there We do have to Look at Recreating a security force Don't call it Faka Call it whatever you want The reality is the best trained security people In CAR were in the Faka Not the presidential guard But in the Faka And they have to be used for this in some way Because in the end We have an organizational entity That's Central African That has guns And not just have everybody else Have guns You and trusteeship We've never done that very effectively As far as I can see I'm not sure we're ready for it at this point Sure, just to Bill's question On you and trusteeship One, it would be a non-starter Anywhere In the region, especially with And two, Minouska has One of the strongest mandates Of any U.N. peacekeeping Operation In Africa, it's got Arrest powers So it's It has A very, very strong Mandate to intervene In all sorts of sectors In CAR So, A, we're not going to get Trusteeship, too We're going to have a strong mandate Just quickly on elections And I think it's not whether we should Have elections or not It's really the timing of elections And the timing of elections in CAR Right now are tied to France wanting an exit strategy France is not tied to what's happening In CAR It's really tied to French interests And the French wanting an exit strategy Because they've been there longer Sangares has been there longer And it's expected to be there It's expensive to keep them there And especially given events of the last Two weeks, I would imagine that there's Even greater pressure In the Kedorsee To withdraw French troops Out of CAR So, again, I think many of us Who think that elections are Precipitous are not suggesting That there should not be elections But that we need elections tied To what's actually happening In CAR, not what's happening in Paris I just want to note, Bill, you mentioned That you've heard pieces Not a framework And in fact, the list of Issues that Larry put on the table Security, jobs, justice Reconciliation, those are in fact The building blocks of the G7 Plus New deal for engagement with fragile states And CAR Pretty much personifies The definition of a fragile state And I think the question for all of us Is does that New deal Provide a framework that Enables sustained engagement By the international community Looking at those critical elements That all need As daunting as they sound If you don't address all of them At the same time, we will Just go through another cycle And Tatiana, a precipitous Withdrawal at this point Sounds like a repetition of past Cycles that will just lead us Back off the cliff Roland, very quick Just to say, you know You interest the ship, absolutely no Beyond what Tatiana just said Because what is at stake in this crisis Reflected both by the Anti-Balacan, the CELECA Is the inequity Of the ruling elites In CR for quite some Times. So if you want to Re-shape the ruling elite In this country, to open The doors to new people, to new Regions, then A trusted ship is absolutely not The right tool, without discussing Whether it's possible or not. A second aspect is What should we be doing Before, I mean, there should be elections And the sooner the better The best, but at the same time There should be a level Of reconciliation that hasn't Been reached now. We know that Reconciliation will need one, two, Three, or 20 generations I'm not arguing about that, but We are still in a moment where Everything Very bad could happen in a queue And this very right Given to all citizenship is not Recognized by all citizens The third point is security first Again, let us not Be too simplistic. Yes, security First, but we know that security Won't improve If the economic dimension Or predicament of this country Keeps being as it is. So let Us work on our two feet And not only bet on one thing That hasn't been working for quite Some time. Hybrid forces Is actually what happened during The poor visit, you know The facades, the gendarmes, The police plus, minusca plus The French, we're working together The real issue is Again, because we have experiences From other countries is To have hybrid forces may mean To have a FACA Slash Congo, Brazzaville A FACA slash Gabon, a FACA Slash French, and then one Day those people have to meet and To say we are one. It's not Going to happen that way. So we have To rebuild, to rebuild We are asked to rebuild an army It's going to be a long process Let us not rush to Simple and easy solutions And let us as well find The time to have a Political dialogue with all Players so that this army Reflects some kind of national Consensus and not Only GDR Plus new Troops who would Arrest me sooner or later I'm used to in this country. Thank you, Rilan. Thank you. Tatiana. Just to say thank you To all of you for coming I think it's I come to car through DRC And we're used to having A large crowd I think it's quite heartening To see that there are this many People on the Monday after Thanksgiving Interested in CAR. So thank you And to your staff For hosting this event And for working practically over Thanksgiving weekend to make sure That we all got here. Thanks again. Great. Thank you. And thank you to our panelists And many thanks for joining us this afternoon And we have to not forget To keep having this conversation In the months ahead