 Twitter is a buzz right now and it is not because Tom Brady announced his retirement 10 minutes ago It is because our darling boy our pinnacle of greatness our son our wonderful child Luke List is finally a winner on the PGA tour getting the win this past week at the farmers insurance open It is a great day to be here talking to all of you about PGA and Holding up our boy Luke list finally a winner on the PGA tour What could be a better way to start today? Welcome on into the heat-check fantasy podcast powered by number fire That's right here on the fan dual podcast network in number fire calm My name is Jim Sadas. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm joined here as always by Brandon Gadoula he is the managing editor of number fire calm a Brandon Luke list PGA tour winner. We do move now to the AT&T pebble beach program. How are you doing today? Yes, wait, and I don't know if you actually said what this week's event was. I forgot. Yeah, I realized that to Jim They didn't before I asked you how you were doing. I was like, oh, I should probably mention what we're doing here Why are we here? Great question. Don't know look, I think that uh you know I Bet Luke list a lot to win the top 10 I played him a lot in DFS and and We recommended him a bit last week. I was No, no, I know for me. I'm saying you loved him. You played him against me I had him as like an other to consider a thing about Batman, but I kind of took a different approach and so I like Luke list enough that Even though I finally I missed out when it finally hit. I'm so happy for him. It's a female zone, right? You know like We root for these guys and even if we're not on that week where they do well, it's fine You mentioned the head-to-head. My best lineup was my head-to-head against you did not play in a tournament I still had a fine tournament week. So I'm not like super tilted as tilted as I would be but like Swapped out. I took my head-to-head swapped out will sell a torus or Jordan speed that did not go Well, it still was a fine lineup despite that because I had listened some other stuff and rom but like Little little little bummed not super bummed but like hey I mean like if we're trying to you know, we talked about golfers having confidence We're trying to build our confidence for PGA DFS as we get into like the tournaments that matter a bit more Didn't hurt. I'll say it that way. I'm not saying this week. I didn't say this week mattered more I meant like we start to get closer to the ones that matter more. They all matter. Oh, yeah, for sure Yeah, that's why we got 10 in the top 50 in the world here this week Hey, that's twice as many as there were last year. So we're moving on up for the AT&T pebble beach program That is this weekend. We're gonna break that down You let you know which golfers have done well at this setup in the past because it is another multi course event We'll let you know Details of that implications for the cut and much more throughout the podcast for today First a quick reminder to make sure you are subscribed to the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed wherever you get your podcast We are not the podcast Spotify Stitcher Google podcasts other ones I'm sure find us there by searching for the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed And if you like what you hear leave us a rating interview as well Of course, we are live on youtube every Tuesday at 10 a.m As well if you're watching youtube right now a thank you be hit the subscribe button there get notifications as we go live each and every week A lot of other good stuff there as well Also, hey basketball fans mba season is in full stride with games happening every night Shocker fandom and tnt are giving you the opportunity to get into the action with nba tnt over under contest for any tnt nba broadcast All you got to do is opt in and choose over or under for each prop lock in your picks Before the end of the first quarter compete for a chance at $5,000 in prizes Head over to fan duel.com today and participate in the free to play nba tnt over under contest Eligibility restrictions apply go to fan duel.com or download the fan duel app for more details Let's dig in here to the atnt pebble beach program. It's another Multi-course event last year. They used just two courses due to covet 19. Uh, they'll be back to three Typical three or set up for this year golfers to play one round on each course to start things off Then a cup will occur after saturday's rounds. So similar to two weeks ago. We had a cut after uh, 72 or after 54 holes. Sorry I had to do math after 54 holes versus 36 That one though was top 70 plus ties. This one is top 60 plus ties. So that's not great There are 156 golfers in the field. So Good luck. The courses in play for this week. The primary one is pebble beach They'll play there a one round the first three rounds and then on sunday if they make it it is 6,972 yards in a par 72 spyglass hill is 7,041 yards in a par 72 and monterey peninsula country club Is 6,957 yards and a par 71 again one round each of those pebble beach will be played again on sunday If they make the cut top 60 plus ties make it out of 156 golfers in the field So it's gonna be a nightmare brandon when you dig into This event on the whole What stands out to you in terms of things we should prioritize when trying to select our golfers? Okay, so we got small greens for two of the courses pebble beach Uh spyglass hill they're both smaller than the pga tour average, which is around 6,000 square feet And that's what we get at monterey up and into those right right around 6,000 square feet Spyglass is around 5,000 on average in pebble beach some of the smallest greens 3,500 square feet. That's about 58 of the pga average So that is one thing that I always try to keep in mind here That once I started looking more at green size Because with smaller greens you need better iron play with larger greens you can deemphasize it and despite the fact that We do have three courses that are Um, you know pebble can play tough depending spyglass is is always almost always the toughest of the three Monterey is pretty easy, but um, you know, it's a pro am but these greens are small and I think it does factor in um So we're gonna need iron play to stick it close among the the golfers who were tied for a third or better last year Uh, three of the four were top ten in stroking approach. Daniel burger who won Jordan spieth patrick cantley the outlier was mad mcneely Who he was 35th in approach but was second around the green fourth off the tee So if you really don't have the the irons you kind of need the wedges you need to make up some strokes Maybe with your off the tee play Although off the tee plays not going to be a keys that for me. Um, it's almost more of a fairway through green week for me The courses are short You can use that to upgrade driving distance to take advantage of it. You can use that in a way to you know talk yourself into shorter hitters, but Overall, uh, the ball striking numbers for me come down to approach play over driving pretty significantly And speaking of those greens if I go back there, we're getting slower greens For this pro amp setup slower greens according to my data also sort of de-emphasized putting a bit so What all that kind of says about the greens being smaller and which it emphasizes approach Uh, and slower which de-emphasizes putting We could have some of our favorites, uh, who are good iron players. Maybe weak putters, uh, jump out for us this week Um, and as far as scoring goes The winning score is usually around, uh, just under 20 under par. Uh, usually under under par Cut lines as well Still want birdies. So my key stats for this week are gonna be stroking approach par five scoring so that you can take advantage whenever There's par fives pop up stroking around the green and birdie or better rate Yeah, when I look back at the past data, if you're looking for like an off the tee stats to look at and I agree Where you can de-emphasize it overall this week It did just want to be in stroking off the tee versus any of the other splits. Um, that wound up being The most and I'm guessing it's just because those are better golfers in general So I think that if you want to go with an off the tee stat, I would just go with stroking off the tee versus any others and I think that the key takeaway for me is We always emphasize approach just emphasize it more this week like It's always going to be important, but I think it's just more important this week than it typically is Which means it's going to be Just a very central focus I also and I don't typically see this but like when I look back at past golfers We finished well here a lot of them graded out well with scrambles gained For the full season, which is weird and that's not a stat I typically like But for some reason it did grade out well, so I put it on my sheet I don't know like if the process there is super sound, but I was like, you know, this makes sense and like looking back to 2020 There were only four golfers there who were at least 10 under so I'm okay Kind of using that as a way to bake in around the green play Putting etc etc and put it all in one So it's a very different week for me this week in terms of where we're usually at where I do have scrambles gained on my list that's not Very common at all probably like three or four events the entire year where I will actually do that I think this is actually one of them And then off the tee play to an extent, but really just kind of selling out for approach I think is the way to play things for this week for me at least Yeah, and to clarify scrambles or scrambling That's whenever you miss a green in regulation, but you still save par Which basically comes down to did you chip it? And one putt for you know, that's typically what that what that is or If you're luke list whole out, you know a few times from the bunker, but You talk about is around the green play on the show last week. So, uh, you know, hey, we'll take it Yeah, but that that also I think is Uh, I don't know that the right word is but because the greens are small and that's why we're looking at iron play If you are missing the greens You got to get up and down whenever you do miss the greens and that is either stroking around the green or scrambling scrambling, of course Includes the the putting conversion unless it is a whole out But if we go back to last year, uh, Daniel burger again who won Ranked 11th and stroking around the green, uh, mcnealy that runner up was second Speeth was 11th. Can't lay 31st Paul casey Nate lashley tied for fifth. They were both top 13 around the green Uh, jason day was tied for seventh. He was fifth So again, if the irons aren't there you kind of have to get up and down So I think that's probably why it's popping for you this week Yeah, and that's why i'm okay putting it on there too because like I talked through about in my head anecdotally because I my My null hypothesis that doesn't matter and I have to be able to reject the null hypothesis And I was like, okay, I could actually like see this this week So that was where I got to it being in the sheet this week this spite fact that is not typical for me Let's go into past history here and look at some golfers With nowhere the histories in this event and again last year was different because they played just two courses versus the full three But previous years previous iterations Did have it in its current format and we wanted to start things off here with the top two golfers in the field Patrick can't lay daniel burger because I think they're standouts relative to the field and both guys have good histories at pebble beach So I want to start with them talk through those two guys discuss what we're handling the top of the field And then we'll go from there So you'll start with can't lay I'll talk through a burger and then we'll talk through Those two compared to the field on the whole Yeah, um, so well that kind of derails things a little bit I know we talked about this but i'm gonna talk about wills autores in current form. So We'll get back to will. I mean, I just it was Lamp shading the fact that uh, we'll probably I'll I'll probably dig more into Zalators a little bit later specifically, but yeah, I mean can't lay look Not a whole lot of the top 50 here just 10. Um So whenever we get that You have to take an extra long look at the stud golfers and can't lay. I think really fits But can't lay fits anywhere. That's what's great about patrick can't lay. Um, he's I would Probably call him the lone superstar. I know like Wow talent wise, um I think to say that fields Very rude. Yeah, but you know, look, we like daniel burger. We like wills autores But patrick can't lay zone another level and he also has a good track record at this event He's made all seven cuts most recently finished third and 11th At this pro am set up across the three courses I guess it wasn't a program last year, but um, I don't want anyone to yell at me. Um, but across Across the three courses can't lay his average 1.8 strokes gain per round According to fantasy nationals, so that doesn't include just pebble that includes All three courses and you can even though we don't have shot link data at spy glass or monorail We can still you know, what strokes gained are relative to the field anywhere That was the fifth most in the field or that is the fifth most in the field So he's actually played just really well here even though he hasn't um, you know Like he hasn't won like daniel burger has but he picked up 5.9 strokes from approach in two rounds of pebble last year and I know we need birdies here, but Going back to what you said about scrambling around the around the green play It helps with these smaller greens patrick can't lay has no holes in his game So he's basically the john rom this week where There's not going to be any one thing that really drags patrick can't lay down and that's why he's just so consistent yeah, and If you look at like data golf's true strokes gained stuff He's a standout and I think that's important too, but number two behind him is burgers. Let's have a burger here Defending champ at this event. Uh, he won it last year going 18 under sunken ego putts clinched it at the end there and Called the I think the best part of his life in that one Burger gained nine strokes tea to green and 2.5 putting across his three rounds of pebble beach the year before that He finished fifth. He gained 2.8 an approach in 2.3 around the green across two measured rounds of pebble beach there He was also 10th all the way back in 2015. It's only other time playing the event so 10th couple top fives including a win Cantlay has excelled on or sorry burgers excelled on poa and that's kind of the one Difference between him and cantlay cantlay is like Okay on poa just very middling there whereas burgers actually really good on that surface And if you're looking for an edge between burger and cantlay that would probably the one thing you could point to otherwise Both these guys are great. I think cantlay is better Uh, and I think the gap is decent between the two of them But burgers not like an also ran kind of guy like he's legit as well So how are you being these two guys relative to each other and what is your approach as far as these two relative to the field? So I pulled up my simulations piece from last year because I I know I I hit daniel burger at this event I was watching that one closely um And the top three patrick cantlay was plus 750 on fando sportsbook daniel burger plus 1400 bills out towards plus 1900 Um feels pretty similar to what we got this year Um, but yeah, I kind of I kind of view it the same way, but maybe a little bit bigger of a gap now between cantlay Um and burger which isn't actually a slight on burger. It's just a little bit more in favor of cantlay Burger was like crazy crazy hot coming out of the covet break and like that was this was still part of that stretch So I had burger at 8.7 percent to win last year. I have him this year at 7.5 percent Cantlay bumped up from about nine to like 11 and a half or something like that for me But again, it's not to speak ill of daniel burger who I would have no issues with if patrick cantlay were to withdraw Which I don't I'm not hoping for but like You know daniel burgers went on to probably go up to like 10 percent for me I think you'd be a fantastic play. He still is a fantastic play, but he's really just more of a A game theory pivot away from cantlay who should carry a lot of the chalk despite the fact that burger himself was The winner last year We're just looking at a betting favorite highest salary golfer that almost leads to the you know Just a lock that you're going to be the chalkiest pick of the week On fando. So I'm all in on burger Aside from the fact that I would rather play patrick cantlay and I think I might have a hard time playing both I was going to ask that because if you go with cantlay plus burger you're 89 50 left per golfer There are some guys in like the low to mid eight thousand range who I think are viable is the way that I would say it and I think that like for a tournament I'm interested in trying to make that happen for a cash game. I'd probably just go cantlay and then Scramble from there effectively But for a tournament, I think the idea of jamming in cantlay plus burger or cantlay plus zaotaurus or burger plus zaotaurus Getting two of those three I'm not really opposed to that if you go burger plus zaotaurus. You're up to 91 25 left per golfer. It's not great, but it's doable. I think For tournaments, I might be pretty okay with doing that. Just think the gap between those three in the field is decent Yeah, and I mean this one of the key The key things you got to figure out on fandal each week is What does the low to mid nine thousand range look like in comparison to the mid to upper eight thousand range And as much as I love taylor more at 95 and Lucas Glover 94 jill damon 93 I'll throw cam champ in there for the for the win juice at 94 Um You can make the case just to save some salary and go down to someone like pat perez patrick rogers Taylor pendrith keith mitchell So I don't think I'll get to cantlay plus burger and four values in a in our head to head But I think you do make a compelling case yeah, I think Given the gap between them Like I'm okay being top heavy if it actually gets me an edge and I think it might get me an edge this week more so than usual um last week I was talking about Balance and trying to be more balanced if I didn't go rom this week is a bit different. So I think it might be worth it for this week. Let's talk about some other golfers who have a good history here at At the AT&T pebble beach pro and starting with troy merit at $9700. Um We're talking about approach here Merit is not going to be someone who stands out in that regard, but hey, he's been here before Got some interesting finishes. What are you seeing with troy merit? Yeah, so from an overall standpoint and this is um This is one of the reasons why you and I downplay course history a little bit but uh overall troy merit's course history is bad He has more missed cuts or he's he's missed over half of his cuts here six of 11 But there's been a reversal recently over the past three years. He's finished eighth 25th and 16th so you know Is he gonna go back to missing all the cuts? Or is he has he figured out pebble and I guess the case you could really say is we played it so much He finally figured it out Which I feel like would only be anecdotal in this situation because you know if you keep missing cuts Then it's because you it's not a good fit for you But however you want to spin it the thing that we need to point out is that all those missed cuts at the time he wasn't As good as he is now and I think that that probably matters a good bit So sure he got the course knowledge, but he's also golfing a lot better Merit is 15th in data golf. Uh true strokes gains that over the past three months Is he on your radar this week? Uh, I think he's a little over salaried. Is that fair to say it is fair to say So I'm a little bit turned off by that. So like, you know, his numbers are not bad The problem is there are other guys in that range whose numbers are more like I'm actively into versus like accepting of if that is a proper way to phrase it so Merits $9,700 there are guys in that range with like Really good approach play and if I am Selling out for approach this week. I'm more inclined to do it with You know, it's more a heat check phase, but also like a guy like Aaron rye who is 95. He's around there as well I'm kind of okay glossing over him At 97, I think that range is actually okay. Uh, that's part of it and the range directly beneath him is okay, too And that's probably why I'm okay Not being as active uh with him specifically Yeah, I mean Merits approach play is not Bad, it's not bad. No So data golf over the past year has him basically exactly average just at a zero My data over the past year with recency adjustments and field strength adjustments puts him in the 62nd percentile in this field um The issue is that he's right around uh, tom hoagie chez ravey lukas glover charlie hoffman up and down so Um, I think from that perspective. I'm probably out on merit His win odds are are quite longer too. Um, according to vandals sports book at 100 to 1 the other guys in that range are around You know 55 60 70 are in that range. So Um, I still think that that we don't have to be off of merit But I it's just probably a situation where I prefer other golfers better I think I'd agree with that too. So let's talk about maverick mackinley You mentioned before uh as a guy who was finished while here previously We talked about mackinley a lot recently But in the current form section But he fits the course history section here at pebble beach mackinley has played the event three times He missed the cut back in 2018 when he was still pretty new to the tour But in 2020 mackinley finished fifth He followed that up with a runner up last year behind burger and part of that was aided by gaining 4.5 strokes around the green Across three measured rounds, which you already mentioned. Uh, but he also gained 3.2 off the tee in those rounds too mackinley Golfing really well. He has done well here His salary is 10 nine. He was I believe 99 hundred dollars last week It's a solid tier. I would say it's not as good of a tier as it was last week Which is why he got the salary bump also he golfed decently well on that one So are you going to keep riding the mackinley train this week jumping off? Uh, what are your thoughts on him here? So you you said you mentioned the 4.5 strokes gained Oh, yeah, okay, it was three rounds last year Because they only played the two courses. Yeah, um, I was actually going to make it even more boisterous there But for me mackinley is someone i'm still targeting The the the main issue I have with mackinley is His irons aren't as good as I want them to be But he's very good at everything else. Yeah, and he's sort of been overcoming Just sort of modest iron play to to to play well Seems like whenever the iron plays there, not everything else is there, which Probably feels more like a matter of time before it clicks. Um, I think their approach play is trending up and that's why I've been going from Look, I'm rooting for mackinley seems like a fun guy. Um, but I'm not gonna play him too. I'm starting to eye up mackinley Bet him play him in dfs. So I think I'm still there Uh from a process standpoint the bigger issue is the Just does he fit my line of construction and he might not I think that's the one question I have around him I think everything else is is solid. Um It's more so like Can I justify going with him versus getting up to zalatoris who is 700 higher? I so like other guys in that range are shameless power cameron chingali methods patrick I'm okay with mackinley above them. I like power a lot always just because like that's my Duty and my obligation to mention that I like shameless power on every podcast um But I'm okay ranking him above them. It's Do I rank him within 700 dollars of zalatoris? Maybe if I really can't find the value to get there But I think my preference would be to get up to A zalatoris to get to a burger and be really top-heavy versus Living this uh low 11,000 high 10,000 range. It might it might not be realistic. So I do still like mackinley It might not be my baseline bill though having he was being my number two guy in there Yeah, I mean with With a full golf field, that's what it comes down to a lot of times is you're not going to like Be absolutely out on certain golfers But if you're not if they're not going to fit your process then It's harder like recommend them too much. Sure. Okay. Let's move on now to the current forum discussion and talk about zalatoris because Golfing really well. We're looking for approach players zalatoris pretty good in that regard Stop me there will zalatoris here at 11 six wrap up the third a stud at the top Yeah, so he's finished sixth and second the past two events really should have won last week. Um But in limited strokes or limited rounds of strokes gained data. He's earned 12.4 and 5.7 strokes t degree in the past two weeks It's like silly That includes 10.7 strokes from ball striking Just your off the tee plus your approach in three measured rounds at tori In the south course last week 5.3 and two measured rounds at the stadium course the week before He's lost strokes putting in both of those however And that's really the issue which if you have followed golf at all If you've seen anything zalatoris in the putting is is is just that's that's his problem And he's gained positive strokes in nine of 31 measured events on the pga tour and more than a half a stroke in just six And you can win a pga tour event with neutral putting But you're not doing yourself any favorites if you're losing strokes putting um That's always going to be a problem for zalatoris until we see that turn around because unlike Then it really comes to mind is con more cow who's not a good overall putter But he has weeks where he lights it up. We've yet to really see that from zalatoris as evidenced by the fact that Just six of uh, there's 31 with more than half a stroke gained. That's that's kind of That's kind of tough and the floor is really high because the ball striking The t-degree is there the ceiling of course is so high because he can be an outlier with how good the t-degree is I don't know if he's yet going to be an outlier with putting to put it all together He didn't have it last week and still almost won Um, you know a solid field fending off john romp could not fend off lucas though as I as I need to point out but I think the question was out to worse is like are you scared if you don't use him relative to burger? burger is honestly like the most Uh statistically, I think I have him as the most uh consistent golfer of any Like full-time pga tour player Zalatoris is very consistent as well, but doesn't have that upside cantile has a lot more volatility, which is why Um, i'm willing to eat the chalk with with cantile out of the three But where are you in zalatoris? Uh, I think that he's like so if i'm so i'm talking about like having q out of those three guys and a lot of line-ups, you know two between cantile burger zalatoris I would say zalatoris will be on the thinner end of that scale where I still put him in there with some burger put him in there with some cantile, but it would be more so building around cantile plus burger so like let's say you give me Six or five line-ups For argument's sake. I'd probably have three of burger cantile to give myself more chances at getting the value plays right and then One of burger zalatoris one of cantile zalatoris that would put me at 80 on those two guys and 40 on zalatoris I think i'm pretty comfortable with that where I want to get him in But i'm also okay Being lower on him and that would not be my only build so it's not who my exposure would be But i'm okay being a bit lower on him than them. Uh, where are you if you kind of view it from the same lens? yeah, so I don't want to It's very easy for me to overthink this one because I was actually looking at a lot of data for drawn rom and why he hasn't converted his wins and for rom it's that um His standard deviation of tea to green play is like really small because he's so consistently good But he also doesn't really pop off with the putter um We see like the inverse with cantile where he's consistent tea to green but also has some higher variants with the putting um burger doesn't really have that which is why I think that we could say he hasn't won as much as maybe he could have um and for zalatoris it's the sheer fact that like I'm yet to see the putting be enough to carry him and so he needs a justin thomas type performance To go out and win with just like lukewarm putting which he's shown that he can do Yeah, you do that three. Can you do that three straight weeks? Um, maybe I remember stretch where vicar hoblin I think led tea to green in three straight weeks Didn't win if I'm not mistaken in any of those but like Look, I would love to to pretty much lock in somebody's gonna lead tea to green in a week I don't know if he's gonna do it Don't really want to bank on that. So yeah, I think that between it really comes down to burger or zalatoris and i'm just gonna lean burger because The consistency is there and the putting while not as But the putting is not an issue putting is good. Yeah, it is good. It's it's not gonna be bad It might you like to might not get a pop like you might not gain five strokes putting like maybe not In which he has done just it's been a while Um, but you're also probably not gonna lose five and that could matter as well Okay, let's talk about some other guys here with lower salary starting with erin rye coming off a sixth place finish at the farmers That's another impressive showing for him. I think that makes him worth discussing here at $9,500 in that one rye Gained a 6.3 strokes tea to green across his three or two measured rounds Those are the farmers so two measured three measured rounds I had to talk through all these stupid multi-course events without the shot link stuff Three measured rounds for rye in that one He also gained 2.4 strokes putting which is interesting because i'm still assuming the putting will be rough But those were largely poa greens. Um, he is now gained on the greens in three of the past four events Rye has four top 20s in his past six events Most have come with really solid approach play so my assumption is still that rye is going to struggle with the putting because The adjusted numbers of data golf are not good in that regard But maybe he's not going to be as much of a baked in negative as he was previously If i'm bumping up approach play this week That does seem to bode pretty well for him relative to guys in this mid 9000 range so My level of interest on rye is very high. What about you? Sorry He seems seemed very proud of that one I didn't realize what I was doing until the end and then I was like whatever let's roll with it Yeah, I mean Aaron rise the kind of guy I want to root for um With his double glove set up the ironhead covers But um, I think he's going to be more popular than he should be because the salary is good And he was just all over tv coverage On saturday the the final round For me, he still rates out pretty well But he plays basically in my she's 28th or tied for 28th Uh in salary. I have him 35th in my in my combo model So basically just as expected doesn't do enough to to jump off the page for me. So I think with the expected Bump in popularity is like a mid-range play The big question mark with the putting still i'm probably out myself on air and rye Hater has some fun, man loosen up. I'm just kidding. I'm kidding Uh, I think that the the mid 9000 range that we discussed is pretty good So you can make a strong case for not going there because you could just go to I'm assuming you like hoagie, correct? I mean Just the day end in why I'm really hard about that for a second. Yes, it does. Um, does hoagie end in why? No, it does not No, it does not Um Chris kirk yay or nay the putting's bad, but other stuff's pretty good Probably a nay lover Yay Joel day boy Oh, yeah, i'm in on daemon Okay, so we've got other options in this cheer basically is a takeaway there Even if you cross off kirk because of the putting we still got options and Closed over him. I just like him. He's very he's very good I don't know if this is the right week for him though Better rather play him I don't No, um, not gonna be going there. Oh, sorry Sorry Uh, no, I'm good. Um, but Other guys i'm okay with so like if we were to get a read by Thursday again I'd reset because last week was wednesday if we get a read by thursday morning that rye will be popular as a result of that coverage Then sure, you know, whatever. I can maybe deviate then But in a vacuum, I think he's pretty good and I I I think i'm okay with him relative to those guys as well Let's find it. Would you bet me then? Yeah versus who more? Uh, Joel daemon. No, I like daemon Uh chess Yes, no wait. Give me hokey. Would you do hokey? Um No, I would do chess though. I can't believe you're going against your guy I Against jezz. Yeah, I've not used jezz in a while a minute a minute and a half I'll take it. Okay. Cool. That's a that's a guarantee. I'm so bad at the head to head It feels very bad root against jezz though Hey, man, you did it. I feel I feel dirty. I do like erin rye though So I guess I can console myself with that and with his win on sunday over jezz Uh, it's not a jj for erin rye as a winner Nope, do not do that. Uh, I was talking about jj spawn here $8700. Um, what do you see with spawn recently? Yes, talking about uh, not not playing or talking about chess for a while. I don't know if it's been longer for old jj I don't know if it might be it might be actual year since we even mentioned jj spawn's name But he's got some good results lately. Um in the swing season. He was seventh at bermuda 27th at mykoba 46th. He was then open 17th at the rsm in 2022. He missed the cut at the sony open with decent data Then 25th at the mx 34th at the farmers And if you look just at 2022 he ranks 17th in this field in true strokes gained according to data golf Which adjusts for field strength Um, he has missed all four cuts at this event in his career, but I think it's fair to say that He's kind of golfing better than jj spawn's baseline entering those so I'm not saying he's popping for me, but It's at least interesting enough recent form that we should discuss them Because if you're looking for value golfers with great recent form, you ain't finding many Yeah I think the problem is I have a tough time this week if we're bumping up the value approach I have a tough time Tougher time than usual talking myself into someone whose approach data is Kind of like actively underwhelming like it's he's had more positive approach play events recently but he's not had like a pop event in a long time and It's harder for me to get super enthused there and like there are some value guys who can't do that who have good overall beta on their approach stuff so I think if it were like a different course where approach play weren't as big of a factor and I could look at other stuff maybe But I'm a little bit wary for this week specifically given that I do need to emphasize approach a bit more That's why I'm having a tough time there Yeah, I mean The short game is good. So he can scramble he can he can get up and down. He can make some putts I I felt weird even bringing them up, but it's been kind of good like It's probably good to at least put them on our radar. Yeah, I mean using this week But like you put them on our radar as like keeping note of him yeah, and again like I looked for like 15 minutes of like, okay, who's a value who's in good form and I just kept like Going down. I was like, nope. Let me start over like who am I missing like There's not there's not many. So I think spawn at least stands out from that perspective Um, you're making a face because I think you're going to talk about Someone who would not check the good current form box because this is a lot of cuts recently That's Pat Perez. Uh, he's $1,800 and I'm guessing that like when you're going through the checklist Seeing a bunch of missed cuts over the swing season is probably not going to make some look like they're in good form Perez did have a really rough swing season. Uh, he missed three out of four cuts during the fall So we got to decide if what he did last week is enough for us to buy back in on pat pares here at $8,900 And the one hand he gained 5.2 an approach across his three measured rounds. He also gained 4.9 in the green That's fluky, but he's probably a good putter. So I'm not going to totally write that off The problem is that pares lost 1.6 strokes off the tee at the farmers across three rounds He now has not gained off the tee since the 3m open back in july Not not like, oh, he's like hasn't gained hasn't popped. He hasn't gained since july The good thing for pares is that the off the tee play may be de-emphasized here as we discussed He's 20 second an approach 40 second and scrambles gained 21st and poa putting so the like Approach through green play is pretty good. Uh, I'm interested in getting back in here at $900 despite the littering of missed cuts. What about you? So I do have a stat that's uh, strokes gained fairway through green Which is just your strokes gained over the past year adjusted for recency and field strength Excluding you're off the tee play. Is this the tringale model? Can we call that the tringale model? Is that okay? Hey, he's fourth, baby. I know I want to rename it after him. It's the speed model for me, but uh, I mean, I'm cool with tringale, but uh, Where do you think pares would rank? Um Probably like top 10. Maybe he's 10th. Okay. I'll take it That's enough for me. Honestly. I think I think pares is so he played his home course last week Which is a narrative that I always miss. I'm not good enough with like home course stuff There are a lot of dudes who are from that area though so Yeah, but sometimes people were from places and didn't actually play certain places and they moved away and sorry It's it's a piece to the puzzle. Um, it's never gonna be the thing that um, you know, you see some guys at home home courses or maybe even had a hand and Designing a course and they don't really play well. Maybe they got a lot going on that week showing people around doing some extra stuff. So You know, you you hit some you you miss some on those But yeah, pares one of my loves this week as a spoiler I think he's by far the best playable on 9000 and it's really not even much of a question Love to hear it because I love pat pares. I'm excited about this week and I will be in on him as well Let's dive into what the bookmakers are saying about this event Patrick can't lay has mentioned the favorite a plus 750 a fan dual sportsbook Daniel burger is 12 to 1 Then it did send will's out towards the 16 to 1 Jordan spieth and jason day are 18 to 1 I wrote jordan day. I'm not sure why did that anyway? Oh jordan speed. That's why we get to justin rosen camera and Trangalia 22 to 1 shameless power my boy my son new son not a new luke list actually won nuke list Let's call him that now Maverick mcnealy or 27 to 1 math. It's patrick rounds of the top group He is 31 to 1. We talked about can't lay burger zaotaurus two-part question A Who is the best of the rest for you lopping off those three and b Do they do enough? Where you are okay using them versus finding the salary to scramble up to burger zaotaurus and can't lay Sorry, I was just thinking of how good a putter Jordan day would be I don't think they I think You wouldn't really improve. That's the thing. I was like, I'm trying to think like would it would it be better? It's like if you're two people are watching a car. It's one of those Thingers like people are watching a car. Yeah, it takes take those takes jordan 20 minutes to watch car and jason 18 minutes So combine well jason has to take a back break. So it's more like 37 minutes Let's let's be honest here. Well power to him So, okay. Yeah, I threw a lot of questions at me The best of the rest outside of the top three Uh, that's a tough one because I'm realistically not going to be like I I can I might not have any So, let's just skip that then if it's not worth discussing. That's okay. I'm fine about but I I think it's I'm being transparent there. Like I don't think anyone is close enough Yeah, unless I can include wait are you including all these names? Yeah, then shameless power. Oh cool. Okay, my boy. Um, that's what I was going to ask second was If you go with cantilever burger Where are you looking to go for your second golfer? Let's say you're not going the jam and then approach Are you looking to get down to? power at 11 1 mcnillia 10 9 or are you dipping down more to like You go further down the charts to like, you know, someone in the mid 10 The low 10s for your second gulf Um power and mcnillia the two guys I have highlighted I would lean power over mcnillie. So I'd be interested in the head-to-head, but I know you won't take that one I can't bet against my bull like It's a joke how often I pick shameless power as a win pick on this show. Yeah, it might happen again Um, but like it's happening for me. I can't I can't go against him. Let's not it's not just it's not fair So I think the most realistic start for me is going to be can't lay power. Yeah, okay So I think that may be that answer question. I think that's the the way I'll build in my non Uh, like jam and min lineups. I don't think there will be a lineup I build this week that does not have one of cantilever burger I don't think I'll start with alatoris personally. Um, I think I'll just have one of those two with each of them Uh, yeah, we're getting three guaranteed rounds from them. Um, I know that picking the winner here's Always a bit You know, we've seen we've seen high profile winners and we've seen long shot winners Yeah, I don't want to assume it's a long shot winner because we have cantilever burger and alatoris all playing really well Uh, but yeah, I think for me, I'm gonna have one of cantilever burger as well Okay, uh, which golfers odds have shifted most notably some things open yesterday Um, a lot of odds lengthening which it hasn't really been the case lately But kevin strelman went from 34 to 1 to 46 to 1 on bandel sports book Your boy erin rye 50 to 75. So kind of a tough scene on your part To see that my guy joel daemon and brant snettaker Who if you combined into one golfer would be great t-degree and then have snettaker's potting I think that'd be fun. Would you go brant daemon or joel snettaker? I think I'd go joel snettaker. That's not even a question um I know if there's like the daemon night boy thing or whatever. I don't know. I I don't know if that's right I thought you I thought you were being like ironic with I actually don't know which one it is but like man and night man Oh, they're both man. That's stupid. I don't like that. Um That's a call the writers if it's always sunny to have a discussion with them about there I know better man. Um I think joel snettaker would be good like snettaker sounds like a He's a local news anchor didn't change his name Despite the fact that his uh, his broadcast journalism teacher Professor recommended changing his last name in college Uh, to make it easier to pronounce their potential employers. He said no I had too much pride in the snettaker family. So joel snettaker you'd find him on uh tv 5 weeknight 6 p.m But you could find joel daemon and brant snettaker now at 80 to 1 on vandal sportsbook. Wow You're good. They were 65 They were 65. Uh, they're now 80. So again some movement there and then dylan fratelli 80 to 120 to 1 Kind of strange but in terms of audu shortened I've only seen two taylor moor my guy 190 and grace and sig 120 to 90 Um, I didn't look into sig but I also don't have any interest there But find me a taylor moor bet You're higher on him than I am find me a taylor moor bet Where you have more and I have someone else Uh, what about taylor moor versus former winner nick taylor? Um, no Taylor moor versus A chest I'd actually That way I can root for chest despite reading against him. Just get him middle going. Yeah, um taylor moor or camp champ um No, I don't think we're gonna find one moving on. Um, I don't want that one either. Yeah, uh, which Which lower salary golfers have I seen out to you? Um, kind of a lot michael thompson's heath uh, or sorry michael thompson's 55 to 1 so he'd think all is 65 to 1 pat pares patrick rogers keith mitchell charlore schwarzel uh, steward sink 80 to 1 uh, grace and sig 90 to 1 And then we do have like a list of eight or 10 in 100 to 1 I can rattle off But jim's taken a sip. So I'm gonna do it anyway. Um, alex. I'm done Okay Then I need to do if you don't want That's I don't I mean, I don't know if it's fun to hear like a list of names But it was such a big cluster that I figured like maybe read them Okay Well, now I gotta start with the guy I I've yet to hear his name on coverage And I'm a big fan But there's no pronunciation on on the website the pg tour website either. I don't know if it's alex smiley or smally Sorry alex. I know you're listening. Um, please let us know But he's 100 to 1 this week to win. I do like him taylor pendrith adam spenson dean burmester matthew knee smith adam hadwin brendan todd brandon harkins and windham clarker all 101 There's a thing on facebook where you can list like the pronunciation your name. I want that on twitter Um, not for me because I don't care too much. I actually I do care But like I pretend I don't care to pronounce my name right But like they show that on twitter too for people like alex so we can say their names, right? Recommending that Yeah, uh, michael tomson's approach play Was a reason why I could not get there despite the short odds. Do you have any interest in him at $9,000 or no? Uh, not really. No, I think it's um good good recent like exposure and finishes and I think that's driving up the Down the odds Okay, uh, whether for this week no issues It'll be wins between seven and eight miles per hour produced the entire weekend No real spikes no real waves et cetera et cetera nothing too bad So let's dive into our player picks here for the at&t pebble beach pro amp brandon at the top Who are you jamming in for this week? patrick antley jamming him in I think that's a good way to phrase it because I'm gonna have I'm gonna be heavy on cantley. I'm gonna be overweight He'll probably be about 40 To 45 I'll say 41 and a half is the over something like that. I would like to be 60 to 75 depending on how many like lineups I have But in somewhere in that range on cantley Over the past year and adjusted for recency. I have cantley ranked first in this field an overall stroke skiing Uh stroke skiing tea to green stroke seeing it off the tee, which isn't a key stat But I want to throw that in there second and approach play He's very good Top 12 here past two years have no issues with cantley. The salary is not high enough To make it that much different than just playing daniel burger. So i'm gonna go cantley very heavily for a cash game You jam in cantley and go from there, correct? Yeah, absolutely. I agree. I have as my top guy too. I don't think there's any need to like Dwell too much on it. I think cantley is the guy and The gap between him and burger in my head is more than four to dollars So although I like burger and we'll use him as well. I if I have to choose one I will we can't lay who else you like in this upper registrar fandall Upper what? register I thought you said registrar. It's like I think that's a college thing. But yeah, don't make I don't think about college. I don't either. I was like, what? She was power 11,100 gyms guy is now my guy for the week. Uh, she's been she's been trending trending Elite fairway through green game. I have in the 97th percentile In this field again, just reducing or removing your off the d-play Uh, I haven't as the field leader in birdie rate over the past 50 rounds according to fantasy national Just mixed results at this course that they're this event. I should say But again Try to figure out what kind of form they were in And if it was a lot worse or a lot better Maybe change expectations based on course history Yeah, I think the power is really solid He is my two behind maverick mcneely and it's not disrespect to power. I just like mcneely a lot mcneely disrespect Wow Sorry, then I retracted. I don't want to disrespect shameless. He's my guy But I do like maverick mcneely. He's my second guy up here We talked about the course history earlier. He's also been good on poa I don't want to say he's a good poa putter because it's still a 42 round sample. So not a super robust sample, but He does rank sixth and strokes me on poa on the field Uh, according to fantasy national He gains off the t he gains an approach as he said he's been better there recently I'm willing to keep buying in at 10 9 I think both he and power are very good. So I'll probably just concentrate on those two In order to not spread myself out too much and then differentiate the value play So concentrated between the top two guys, you know burger can't lay I guess the altaurus and they're two then concentrated when I'm in this range on power mcneely Because I do think they do stand out compared to the rest for me at least there Let's move down to the mid-range. Who are you checking out there? Tom hoagie He's a negative on poa about a minus 0.1 per round But is in the 79th percentile in birdie or better rate over the past 50 rounds It's 12th here last year and he just has what you're looking for. Um, if you want that wind juice Uh, good great approach played 94th percentile over the past year with my adjustments. So hoagie 97 is part of The only reason I would consider going like can't lay and then jumping over uh, both power and mcneely to try to get like Lawn toe and charlie hofman If he's gonna play finally uh, and like hoagie and go a little bit more of that balance It's a little bit appealing, but i'm probably gonna end up just going with uh, can't lay in power More often than not. Yeah, I think that I would be doing that as well My first guy here is gonna be erin rye. I think we talked enough about him and I do still like him But let's talk about joel daemon brief. Oh, he's never mind. He's yours. Just kidding. What's up on erin rye? Um, I thought we were glossing over daemon and I was gonna put him in here, but I guess you're talking about him So I don't need to I like daemon at 93 We'll have a lot of them as far as rye go uh 21st stressing off the t 33rd and approach in a small sample He's gonna put himself in position to get some birdies and the putting should still be bad Uh, and we should brace for that, but he's at least showing he's capable of gaining on the greens I think that is worth something. So $9,500. I like his profile a lot I will be here for sure But I do like joel daemon too. So talking about daemon at 93 to dollars Coming in off of two straight missed cuts despite positive t to green play which is You know, you'll take that putting hasn't been well, but it's never really super great with with daemon Has not missed the cut at this setup in four tries and he's just got a bunch of Birdie upside because the t degree in play is there and if he's hitting greens that our guys are missing That's how he's gonna separate. He's not gonna have to scramble so much as he's gonna be able to have some birdie putts So also with the odds lengthening it kind of gets me to believe that people might be looking A little bit elsewhere in the mid-range. Yeah, I think with daemon too. He's been He's been gaining more often on the greens That means it's a baseline of never uh two baseline of sometimes which is good. Um, but like, you know, that's something for sure And like po has been bad for him. So I think it's also encouraging that he has done okay at this event Um, so I think that those are positives and I think that's enough for daemon where we'll carry them too Some of rustle knocks. Um, he's been putting especially bad recently and especially bad for also knocks ain't great So there's a lot of risk here, but with how key approaches this week I do like the idea of giving him a swing here at $9,100. Knox is seventh in approach past 50 rounds according to fantasy national He has put that to good use at this course or at this event. I should say Knox was seventh at the 18 t pro am last year and the two course set up He was 14th to 2019 15th to 2018 He does have missed cut risk because the putting is bad but so does everyone down here and We get three rounds and that does help a bit. So I like knocks at 91. What is your read on in brandon? um same old rustle knocks basically, um There's the the case to be made for him With the ball striking being good, but if I'm gonna go with a good ball striker and a bad putter I'm gonna go Joel daemon. I'm gonna find 200 to get up to daemon Would you do that many both if I go cantley burg can't lay burger? Yeah, and pares I wouldn't be off of knocks. I will say that at 50 to 1 in 9100 He could get get a bit of a bump Which is you never want to play rustle knocks with any modicum of popularity because Of the downsides of the putting being bad, but sure I wouldn't talk you out of them. And like you said, I might need them I think we're gonna need a lot of guys down here. So I think that is Something to consider down here. Let's move down the value range guys at $9,000 and lower when you are down there brandon Who are you looking at primarily? Well, because I took cantley, why don't you take pares Because okay our love. Yeah, so a shared love I Think in this event I want to take swipes at guys who kind of fit the the traditional heat check model where they have really good approach play And pares has that He's 22nd approached pet 50 rounds that includes the time over the fall where he was missing cuts He is a plus putter on poa 2. Uh, so He should do well On the greens should do well on approach Two important things always, uh, he's probably gonna struggle off the tee But if that is downplayed this week at all, I think that bumps up pares And like you mentioned, he grades out well in your approach to the green number the the trangalli model So I think that pares is the best value for this week. Do you agree? Yeah, I said, uh, that pares for me is the best golfer at a salary of 9,000 or below It's not particularly close. Um 86 percentile and adjusted iron play over the past Uh calendar year Puts well on poa makes birdies. That's what you're looking for this week Um, I don't really see a case to be made to get away from pares over someone else Yeah, I'd agree. Okay. Who else do you like here in the value range? alex s Small smally. I I don't know. I gotta I gotta really be tuned into coverage. Um, sometimes I guess player cards have like those videos and Sometimes they say their names, but I'm 8500. There are other guys with that last name who pronounce it smally So I think we can go there as a default. Okay Um, I should have just said that not drawn attention to it But hey, we're we're a very pronunciation conscious podcast Thanks to jim. Um, he kind of instilled that in me. So fair. I care. Um smally Right, that's what we settled on All right, listen to you. Uh smally actually He's actually better. Um, and my long term adjusted form than pares who again, I adore Uh, but I think the salary is way too low here at 8500 as a result Good driver. He's a positive with his irons and wedges Very cold putter last week, which should probably lead to some regression. Can't be that bad Always with the minus four point or 5.4 strokes over three measured rounds at the south course So banking on some regression and just banking on the long term form being quite good So smally is going to be a bit of a key for me to unlock. Can't lay burger lineups Yeah, I think he makes sense. Um, I can see that I think the one guy like more at $8500 the same salary as smally is hayden buckley He's One of the new guys up from the corn fairy tour and he's shown that he can do well in the weaker pga tour fields If we're gonna, you know be blunt about this week Buckley was fourth at the sanderson farms. He was eighth at the shriners 12th at the sony, uh, if we look at him since the start of the swing season He also does have four missed cuts and a 71st So the floor here is not great, but the ball striking seems solid Short game seems less disastrous than Other younger guys He's $8500. I think that he is interesting as a guy to help offset the salary. I can't lay a bid I like buckley. Uh, what about you at $8500? Um, I don't I don't mind him. I know he started hot on the south course last week, which Made him like a rare He was the luke list superstar tier. Yeah um So over the past year, I much prefer smally Um past six months. It's closer um, I wouldn't talk anyone out of Buckley, but I think that I would love to have a smally versus buckley bet. Sure. Let's do it Actually, let me check. Let me Um no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no Yes, sir. Why not All that for a yes or why not Yeah with it I think buckley's fun. I think he's on the ascent. I think he's got what I want. I'll take it Okay, let's do our win picks here. You mentioned shameless power. Is he one of your win picks Based on the odds of fangirls sportsbook. He is going to be yes. Okay, so you got shameless power Who would you like for your second golfer then? so I'm probably gonna bet burger and Power and then sprinkle in the long shots some long shots I'm eyeing our Charlie Hoffman Pat Perez Taylor Moore and and Smalley For the sake of this, I'm just trying to hit winners and get some units on the board I'm gonna go burger and play it safer Okay, so I'm gonna go burger and power this week See a burger and power Which is dumb because what I just explained should have put me on can't lay instead it because this is not This is like a combination of like what I'm actually betting but also just trying to beat you and our head-to-head betting Yeah, so I'm gonna go Maverick McNeely for one into him and For number two It is a guy whose name we did not say during the entire show So I love when I love when you give me these cuz this is not an uncommon situation. I think it's because this golfer's Betting odds are too long, but his salary is a little bit too high he's also very close to shameless power and Maverick McNeely in Salary and I don't think he's there, but his betting odds are a lot longer. I think that's unless he moved. Nope Mito Pereira All right What are your numbers say about Mito? I'm ninth in my combo model Basically with Cantland burger being decent values No one else is gonna be nobody else's value. Yeah Until you get down to like Charlie Hoffman at 65, but Um, I mean I see the case if you yeah Honestly, you won name value alone. This is a good a good week for us Daniel not as much But like you have Seamus. I have Maverick and Mito Top that I dare you you can't you can't I just gonna win. I love your I Love those calls so much. Well, like it's different because like we're looking at betting odds versus DFS hours They're very different things. Yeah, I I know and it's even for this game alone. It's not just who I'm actually betting It's again like trying to find a combination of safety and upside here. I Just want to win and I want to give the best odds Mito Pereira gives me the best odds. So Love it when Mito ascends to the Lucalist zone You'll just know that We warned you that it was coming that is all that we have here for this week on the PGA DFS podcast The AT&T pedal Beach Pro amp, but as mentioned once again Make sure you are subscribed to the number fire daily fantasy podcast seat for NBA and an HL podcast via Tom Vecchio USC via Austin Swain NASCAR coming up just around the corner Two and a half weeks in the Daytona 500 the clash coming up this weekend Not sure if they'll DFS for that But if they do we'll talk about it over on the DFS feed and also hit subscribe to the Fandall YouTube page To watch us live here with the PGA podcast every Tuesday At 10 a.m. Brandon if people have questions for you on Twitter, where can they find you there? I'm at good old 13 GD ULA 1-3. I actually had like the the name things up at the Streamyard and like they're there now. So Brandon just pointed So I'm at Jim Sonnis as you can see who this way J. I. M. S. A. N N ES you can also follow the Fandall podcast network at Fandall podcast big Thank you to everyone for tuning in for this week Good luck to you with your lineups the AT&T pebble beach pro am we'll talk to you once again Next week to get you set for another round of golf. This has been the heat check fantasy podcast powered by Number fire