 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network It is officially my favorite time of the year because the day tone of 500 is just around the corner It is coming up on Sunday or potentially Monday based on the weather forecast down in Daytona And we've got the full menu of odds now posted a Fandall sportsbook for the great American race We're gonna break down the day tone of 500 for today by talking to dr. Nick Giffen of the action that we're getting his read on General betting process for Daytona talking about some drivers He's keen on entering this year and of course his favorite bets at Fandall sportsbook for this week's race This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and Fandall research My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a managing editor of digital media for Fandall research Joined here as mentioned by dr. Nick Giffen check him out on Twitter at roto doc And you can of course find his work at the action network where he is a predictive analyst He's not a running hot podcast is stacking Denny's podcast as well busy guy. It's always so Nick I appreciate the time. How you doing today? Ah, man, it's Super Bowl week. Oh wait. No, it's Daytona 500 week I'm mixing up all my big events here Super Bowl's done Daytona 500's next. It's one of the best times a year. We're gonna have March Madness right around the corner I know everybody gets sad with the NFL ends, but there's still a lot of good sports on and honestly I know it used to be where there would be a two-week gap between the Super Bowl and the Daytona 500 and like for us Like as people who are like doing a lot of research that would have been nice But like as a sports fan from that perspective, it's really great to have something to look forward to on Sunday Despite the fact there's no NFL. Yeah, and for us NASCAR guys, it's great when it's, you know Conference championship clash Super Bowl Daytona. It's pretty good. It's a good deal Clash is weird this year with the schedule change couldn't get any like, you know extra outrides or anything like that in there But Denny Hamlin coming through at least to make it a little bit sweeter and be preventing me from losing money elsewhere So thank you to NASCAR for saving me in that regard as mentioned for today We're gonna go through the Daytona 500 from all angles with it with Nick getting his read on How he plays things for Daytona things to know and each week he's made in the next-gen era Since they changed the cars over for the Cup Series at Daytona to get you ready for Sunday's race But first a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcasts coming up later on So we're gonna talk some NBA all-star Festivities with Tom Vecchio get his read on where he's seen value there this weekend. We'll talk to me P. L with Austin Cass Of course, I'm gonna talk NASCAR truck series and Xfinity series on Friday as well Let you know where I'm seeing value in my model at Fandall Sportsbook for those two races So a lot of good stuff still coming up here the rest of this week on the covering the spread podcast feed Make sure you're subscribed Wherever you get your podcast if you like what you hear leave us a five star rating And of course you can find the show on the Fandall YouTube page and over on Fandall TV plus Get buckets with your first bet on Fandall America's number one sportsbook because right now new customers get $150 in bonus bets with any winning $5 bet That's a hundred fifty bucks if your bet wins bet at all your favorite NBA players and teams with quick bets live Same game parlades exclusive props and much more if it's a fandall.com in the app and shoot your shot Fandall official sportsbook partner of the NBA must be 21 plus and present in select states first online real money wager Only $10 first deposit required bonus issued is now a trouble bonus bets that expire seven days after a seat See terms at sportsbook.fandall.com Fandall is offering online sports wagering in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas star casino LLC gambling problem call 1-800 gambler Over the fandall.com slash RG in Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio Pennsylvania, Illinois, Kentucky, Tennessee, Virginia and Vermont Call 1-800 next step or text next set to 533-42 in Arizona 1-88-789-777-7 over the ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut 1-800-9 with it in Indiana 1-800-522-4700 is a ksgaminghealth.com in Kansas 1-877-770 stop in Louisiana visit MD gambling health at Oregon, Maryland 1-800-gambler.net in West Virginia 1-800-522-4700 in Wyoming Hope is here. There's a gambling helpline ma.org or call you under 327 5050 for 24 7 supporter Massachusetts or call 1-877-70 Hope and why or text open why in New York now Nick We're gonna break down the Daytona 500 here in just one second First because I've got you here selfishly. I want to pick your brain on other stuff beyond just a tona Are there any drivers? You're specifically looking to buy into this year whether it be Championship futures or potentially outrides ones who are at the non a drafting tracks that are on the schedule Yeah, so I think really I'm buying into Denny Hamlin this year. He's just like the Toyota We've got to talk about you know their new body I think that's gonna help them of course, but Denny Hamlin He's a guy that just consistently wins year after year after year and he's just probably in my opinion The best driver in NASCAR along with Kyle arson. I would say at this point in time. I think those two are the best Certainly they've had their own run-ins before and I'm just really high on Denny Hamlin this year partly because I like the Toyota body And you know Chevy right now. They're just standing Pat So they're not really making any progress with a new body or anything like that And then maybe as far as newcomers, I'm pretty high on John Hunter Nima check in that Toyota camp You know of the the rookies or the younger drivers I think he may have the best path to success here with Toyota only having eight full-time cars Sounds like legacy Motor Club is gonna get near first-rate treatment So I think that's a really good sign for a guy who's already been in the cup series for a year before Now albeit not in the next-gen car So there may be a little adaptation period there But I think the second half of the season John Hunter Nima check could be somebody that surprises and then finally I'm gonna go in another Toyota driver tie Gibbs. We saw him in the clash This is third year kind of full-time for him second-and-a-halfish year if you want to call it that because he Was in that 2311 car for the latter half of of the season two years ago But every single Joe Gibbs racing driver in their first two full-time seasons has won other than either JJ Yalee and Daniel Suarez and While I love both of those drivers They aren't they didn't have the elite talent that tie Gibbs showed the Xfinity series guys like Christopher Bell has shown like Joey Logano had shown back in the day or Danny Hamlin You know every single driver whether they were coming in as a rookie Or or a younger driver and maybe like Christopher Bell came in in the second year right race to year at Levine family racing But every single driver whether a veteran or rookie has won in their first two full-time years other than those two drivers I mentioned for Joe Gibbs racing. I was actually watching a Permanent driver for that well related to that. I was watching the 2018 Daytona July race this morning Where Eric Jones beat out Martin Truex, Jr. I was looking for Truex reasons, but like It brings it back because that was his second year at Joe Gibbs racing So similar thing they're actually thinking like Jones be pretty interesting this year too with legacy now Actually getting support whereas last year they were kind of in limbo the entire year But glad he mentioned Danny Hamlin because I think that he's a really interesting guy now Nick I don't tend to bet a lot of championship futures personally Just because it's a long time to lock up bankroll because that's not gonna get cashed out until November and Realistically the CLV you're gonna get Entering Phoenix is not that great. So personally, I'm not willing to bite a plus 750 But like I didn't give you force me to bet someone Hamlin is where I would go Do you think that number is fair a bit undervalued for Hamlin? What do you sit on that number? Yeah, just like you I'm not a big championship futures guy Although I did take a few last year I did like Truex William Byron and Ryan Blaney last year and so that worked out pretty well But I actually don't hate Danny Hamlin at at seven and a half to one or whatever number you can find out there I don't hate it. I'm not betting it myself. Yeah, because similar reasons It's just so hard to win a championship and you can always make the argument that you know Danny Hamlin maybe hasn't been the most clutch driver He's been in the championship how many times and right had the opportunity in the older chase format How many times and never got it done? So you can always make that argument But that also comes down to a little bit of randomness a little bit of bad luck a little bit of sample size Issues there so I don't hate seven and a half to one but not on it myself. I agree with that assessment I'm glad he mentioned Ty Gibbs I was so mad when he was like running out for on the clash it's like oh They're gonna skewer his outright numbers early on the year But luckily didn't get the job done there So hopefully that keeps a little bit lighter on the sportsbook side of things for the first couple of non Pack races. Yeah, let's talk now about Daytona process because it's a very unique track a very unique race from What people may have bet if they've been betting NASCAR before but not at Daytona So if people are diving into NASCAR betting for the first time, what should they know about this track before they place any wagers? Yeah, so Daytona along with Tau Dega is one of two tracks on the circuit There's three now, but two that I really kind of grouped together as the really large super speedways And so what NASCAR does is they have these teams use a tapered spacer to restrict airflow to the engine used to be a restrictor plate That's tapered spacer And they had do some other aerodynamic changes to kind of Slow these cars down create a lot of drag let them run in a big pack and that pack racing style It obviously leads to a lot of randomness because you're all right there All 40 cars can run together in this pack. It's rare these days, especially that will see drivers lose the pack Maybe early in the race if they're having a little bit of handling issues So they just you know, they're getting close to the end of a stage or have a bad pit stop But by and large in that final stage, we're not really getting cars losing the draft so you have every single healthy car under a blanket and Chaos can happen. If one guy makes a mistake. There's nowhere to go for everybody else But specifically Daytona even more so than Talladega track position matters a whole lot, especially with this car Just because it's not as wide handling matters a little bit more And it's just a tougher spot to make moves and to get that third lane of racing going So I think Daytona is is a spot where certainly track position will come into play. I was rewatching 2010 and Kurt Busch was sitting there inside the top three or four And there was a late caution. He came in for tires and was just done and I'm like, oh my god I feel like a green-white checkered finish and overtime finish and he was just done and Jamie McMurray stayed out started up in the Front three rows and ended up winning the race on a double over. I think it was double overtime finish There was a restart with two to go and then there was another restart And then I can't remember if there's another restart But I don't know if that counts as double or triple or single overtime, but you get the idea Track positions gonna matter a lot here. I think And I'm glad you didn't mention 2009 because that one is particularly upsetting for me as an Elliott Sadler fan Where he had the lead with a couple of laps left got passed by Matt Kenseth So I'm glad that you did not mention that one as opposed to 20-10 now you mentioned track position and that's important here And I think it's becoming a more important in the next genera They've had this these new cars for now two years So a former sample at Daytona and it seemed like this package specifically has made it really tough to pass So have you altered anything with like the way you handicapped these races given what we've seen so far during the next-gen era? Yeah, actually I have I agree with you I think it is a lot harder to pass in these cars I remember the late gen 6 era from like 2019 to 2021 and They were just talking about the monstrous runs these cars would get and we saw that one huge crash Which I was gonna flip on the bubble Wallace's roof or whatever These cars were just getting Ridiculous runs and now they go to the the next gen and we're not quite getting the same runs At and it is a lot harder to pass. It's harder to make that third lane Even at Talladega with that third lane only comes in a lot of times when the bottom two lanes are saving fuel So it's just it's a much tougher Way to pass and what that does is it does elevate the favorites or the better cars a little bit But that said there's still a lot of randomness. We've still seen 30 to 1 or longer long shots when both dates on a 500s in the next-gen era So it it doesn't mean these smaller teams or these mid-pack drivers can't win But I do think it skews the odds more so towards the Favorites and the drivers in good cars, maybe even in the mid-tier a lot more I think that's gonna be the theme you hear from me is betting that mid-tier For for this Daytona 500 and for just this kind of racing right now Now you did mention that the favorites are a bit more viable than they may have been another time So let's take a look at the odds right now at Vanduul Sportsbook top of the chart is Ryan Blaney 9 to 1 for me That's too short. I always love Blaney not this week for me personally Any value in the favorites for you with what you're seeing right now? No, I don't have value in the favorites even in the next-gen era The the I remember last year my dates on a 500 model the highest win probability I had was something like 6.8% Something like that, which is just not gonna get it at 14 to 1 I it may be a little higher this year just because we now have more data and we have seen the favorites do a little bit better On these drafting tracks, but I still don't believe I will be touching anybody 14 to 1 or shorter Now you mentioned the mid-pack is being kind of the spot yours and more so living in so let's talk about the mid-pack When you're looking at the drivers who are not the favorites a little bit longer odds You mentioned around 14 to 1 is potentially being the tipping point where you can start to at least consider guys Who stands out to you as being a good value right now? Yeah, I'm gonna look like I said in that mid-pack guys like Martin Truex Jr. Tyler Reddick Here Bubba Wallace 20 to 1 all these guys are on big teams You can look maybe at a guy like Austin Cedric tie Gibbs. There's a whole bunch of guys Ross Chastain in this 20 to 35 range You know, I just think I've seen an Alex Bowman 35 to 1 out there That kind of range like especially if you can get some of these guys at 25 or 28 or 30 to 1 And then 35 to 1 I really like that range plus, you know the steward Haas drivers chase Briscoe Ryan Priest you can get them in the 40s or 50s even Depending on where you're, you know where you're making your bets and I think that's just the the sweet spot for value You're getting big teams big drivers on big teams That are in double-digit odd this range Like way mid double-digit odds range not just like 14 or 16 So I think this is the range. I'm gonna be targeting this year with my Daytona 500 outright bets Anyone specifically you're most keen on in this range because to me it actually is a guy you alluded to in Ryan Priest he's 50 to 1 a fan to a sportsbook that is the best number I have seen so far I think he's as short as like 35 some other spots and he's that steward Haas racing He ran well on pack tracks a jtg dorty racing back in the day Obviously have that massive flip here back in the summer last year, but I like the talent I don't think shr can get much worse from like an organizational perspective I like an equipment quality perspective results may get worse because there's no kevin harvick, but I think You'd eventually expect given the money. There isn't that team there to be some sort of uptick the support They get from four So I think priest is pretty interesting at 50 to 1 anyone specifically you think is is super intriguing right now um You know I always and he's ofer, but I always could gravitate towards martin truex junior at these tracks He's so good at these tracks. He just hasn't had the results He will often come through the field find his way towards the front And then something will happen. Uh, so I gravitate towards him Uh, and that's why he ends up floating into the 30s sometimes So he's not right now in the 30s, but if he falls back into the 30s, maybe after qualifying or the duals I'll certainly be looking to grab him again. Um, and then uh, like you mentioned ryan priest chase brisco I know i've seen chase brisco in the 40s Both of those guys certainly intrigued me just like you said from the steward haas perspective even though Gregson he's had some good super speedway runs in xfinity and He was battling ross chestane for a win in the cup series At a super speedway one year before they got together and uh, you know, that started their little feud so I don't hate these steward haas racing drivers. Um, I particularly like, uh, gregson Brisco and priest like you said not not as high on josh berry I haven't really seen enough from him on the super speedways Specifically, but I'm right with you there. So I think I just named a whole bunch of drivers I didn't I didn't do a very good job of nearing it to one or two But that's kind of how I feel about this race. I love the mid-pack. I like tyler retic He's there's I think a 30 to one out there on him. I I like ty gibbs and 30 to one, you know, it's there's I'm just probably going to end up firing this mid-pack based off what I see in the duels Yeah, and I think that the gregson one is good call out too because I actually I had to pick Who I won to zero went on because I don't want to have too many outrides because obviously those bets cannot catch simultaneously So it is really picking and choosing. I've got valian eric jones 30 to one um value on priest as mentioned at 50 to one Gregson is 60 to one. I have him at 2.2 percent his implied odds are 1.6 percent at 60 to one And like you said the the numbers on him and xfinity were pretty good on the pack tracks I got he got a win in talladega. I think back in 2022 And like this is better equipment than what he had last year legacy given the situation that they were in With chevrolet at that time. So the 60 to one on gregson is interesting. I have not taken the plunge on that yet I think the ones that I have are uh priest. I think I got 40 so I didn't get the best number there I have todd gillian 60 65 to one If I were to add I would give gregson pretty long consideration there Yeah, I I agree with that. Um, and then Right here in the middle of your graphic, uh, aj almedinger is now down to 60 to one. I grabbed him at 80 to one yesterday I went back and looked for talladega My model had him at like 2.2 percent or something. Uh, so 80 to one is great There's no reason he shouldn't be too far off of that number, especially at Daytona where uh things are even more random So, um, aj almedinger, I I don't hate 60 to one. I certainly liked 80 75 to one a lot better Um, but uh, honestly, I don't hate 60 to one And he's a guy who has done well in pack tracks consistently whether it be previously in the cup series and the xinity series Had some wins at talladega and stuff and then also back in the cup series too. So last year Yeah, six six in this race last year thirded in lanta. Um, so he's still shown he's he's got it at these pack races Absolutely Now, what about the non-outrights? Where are you seeing value there right now? Uh, yeah, so the non-outrights I think is a lot of fun. Um, there's a lot of different markets out there for me Uh, remember how I just rattled off three steward haas racing drivers I like steward haas to win at 12 to one if we just do a little math here Uh, they're gonna make up 10 of the field four of the 40 cars and Right there if if they were just the average car to win, uh, then they should be nine to one as fair odds because that is 10 implied probability And I think there may be at worst the average car when we think about it I mean, we've got three or four elite teams But that makes up less than half the field and then they're right there. They're the next team And there's a lot of guys that have very I shouldn't say a lot But there's a few guys that have very low win probability that that'll make the race Um, whether it's uh, you know, one of the bgm of cloud cars or You know, whether it's uh, the the jj yaley car that we've just got news on today entering in new york racing There will be some guys that have very low win probability. Maybe the rick where guys, uh, so That elevates all these other favorites even more. So I think steward haas racing at 12 to 1 Is arguably one of my my favorite bets right now But if I had to make a bet before seeing cars on track in in the duels Yeah, the implied odds of 12 to 1 are 7.7 percent. I have them at 8.4 percent So above that it's in part because I got the value of priest and gregson specifically, but you know briscoe and Barry could get the job done. I agree with your assessment of barry or i'm not as high on him, but Looping together gregson and priest is pretty interesting. So I do also show value on that And it goes with the strategy of firing maybe like your true ex reddick Ty Gibbs alex bowman and then steward haas racing and you could build a really nice card on that Right, absolutely. And it allows you again to to double dip on guys you show value on which is something I'm always going to be in favor of you can do that sometimes. It's like number of race winner bets odd even Race winning number and stuff like that That's a good way to kind of get a bundle effectively on different drivers. You may show value on which is something I'm always in favor of yeah, exactly. And then, um, you know, there's always these interesting ones I know you and I talked about it last night. We were talking about Uh, well Toyota number of toyotas to finish inside the top 10 over one and a half You know, that looks interesting. Uh, given that there are now nine potentially toyotas in this race at minimum eight Uh, and so just all sorts of like shop around look at, um, where things may be missed priced just based off of Uh, incorrect sample sizes or something like that, you know, if books are going back 10 15 years to analyze the dates on a 500 Well, we had a bunch of snooze fests, uh in the late, you know mid mid late, uh, 90s or I should say, uh Teens and then the early 2000s I know denny hamlin had a couple years where he led over 90 laps twice in back to back years But that's changed that's shifted. Uh, so there's just a lot of, um, you know props that will become available as the week goes on Whether they're at vandal or elsewhere. I know vandal last year had a lot of really good props I was able to, you know, uh win a few of those bets at vandal. So, um, just shop around I think as we get closer and closer to race time, we'll get more and more bets Uh, but my favorite one right now, like I said, uh, on a non outright would be steward house racing to win a 12 One thing you mentioned there is the lap leader thing and how there were snooze fests back in the day The number that we had a 73 and a half for, um, the lap slide by the the top driver I think in this era where teams realize how important it is to say fuel and your fuel savings go Out the out the door when you're leading the pack It makes way more sense to take the under on that number because teams do not have an incentive To be the number one car in that pack where their their fuel their fuel efficiency goes way down Absolutely. Yeah, and uh that ends, um, it's just not as important to Uh lead laps given the current setup of how you get into the playoffs, you know Back in the day leading laps you get five bonus points you get Another five are leading the most that kind of thing. It's just there's not the incentive there like there used to be um, and I know we're talking like way long ago, but uh, still, um We haven't had a driver in the next gen era lead more than 67 laps at either Daytona or talladega Not counting atlanta because of the Mile and a half ish kind of effect that goes into that one But uh at Daytona or talladega, we've never had a driver lead more than 67 laps Medium 44 and a half or sorry medium 47 average 44 and a half whatever it is flip those numbers But uh, you get the idea if if if there's missed price lines out there There will be um, there's going to be a lot of books. It's it's the super bowl of nascar, right? So while it won't be as many prop bets as the super bowl has because it's certainly much more of a niche market It'll be the super bowl of betting for nascar because this will be the one race that has the most props available So make sure to shop around and take advantage of them, especially as we get closer to race time Yeah, it's something where you always want to take advantage of of markets that have not been back tested as much Not have been pounded into efficiency via the market and we're going to get a lot more of those this week Then we typically well when it comes to betting on nascar that is jim brookly one more thing Yeah, if we look at group bets, right like This is this race is so inherent. Uh, so random, uh that A lot of these groups four car groups every driver should just be 25 to win ballpark, right? And so if you see something that's a bit longer than three to one, uh, especially significantly longer than three to one Almost probably should bet it unless there really is a major driver discrepancy Yeah, like I was looking at one for xinity where it's jeb burton plus 340 and jeb literally won a pack race last year So stuff like that that's I think it's that and then also like matchups if you get plus money on one side It's not an auto bet, but it is one I would like I look for those and then I dig in I don't bet a lot of them But like I do dig in to see okay Is this a value of something that I care about because It's going to be roughly 50 50 most of time for most of those matchup that exactly Alrighty that is dr. Nick giffin makes you check about on twitter at roto dock find his work at the action network as well The uh running hot podcast and the stacking denny's podcast nico is a pleasure as always good luck to you and enjoy the racing this week And hopefully this weekend and not on monday. Yeah, have fun everybody. It's uh, best race of the year Alrighty again find nick on twitter at roto dock I am on twitter at jim sonnis You can find me on threads at jim dot sonnis and check out fan dual research on twitter at fan dual research I want to thank you all for tuning in for today backing in tomorrow talking the nba all star festivities with tom vecchio This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network