 All right, we're back. We're back with the April trading strategies session. I've got to tell you, I look back on the notes of March, and there were some really unbelievable and contrary information, things that people didn't bet, didn't understand, didn't know. Weak or dollar? I mean, no one was thinking weaker dollar. Some of the stocks that we picked during a decline still held up. So I am excited to be back. Let's get our participants here. Steven Sarge, Guilfoyle, I start my morning, as he knows, every morning with his column, which thank you because you've always said it perfectly, but let's give you the straight, equities expert spent more than 30 years as a trader on the NYSE floor, founder of his own trading operation, Sarge, 986 LLC, and you've got to read Market Recon. I find Market Recon sets exactly what I have to think about for squawk on the street and what I write directly for real money. If you're wondering, Sarge is more than just a cool nickname. He earned it serving in reserve for the components of the army and the marines. Thank you for your service. Always have to say that, okay? David Gilles Williams, who gold did pretty good. We thought the gold was good. I thought the gold was gonna go down when the Fed raised rates, but you told us otherwise. That was a great call. Gold and commodities expert, NYSE trader for 29 years, now principal strategic gold, which buys and stores fiscal gold for investors. I have to tell you, directly two people who are actually well-known but I'm not gonna reveal their names, literally just said, okay, I'm doing everything that guy said and are both very happy. I pointed up because this is not a round table. It just disappears in the ether. It's a round table where people take action, okay? Peter Chur is a fixed income expert and now the primary columnist for a new premium product, income seeker. Peter's traded all manners of fixed income product both on the sales side as a market maker and as a portfolio manager as a fixed income hedge fund. He's currently the manager, managing director of macro income strategy at Breen Capital LLC and was dead, right? When we talked about bonds this time. Okay, and then Douglas Borthwick is a forex expert who correctly called Brexit one of two people. That I know of me. And he called Donald Trump's win one of one person. And this changed in the strong US dollar policy and Doug, what a call. Doug is now a columnist with the street and a managing director at Chapter Lane FX positioning has held since the company's inception in 2012 and I'm not blowing smoke. It just happened to be when I went over the transcripts I said, all right, we went to work and we started by saying, what are you watching? And we went around, I want to do it again because some great insights right at the top of the show. I like discretionaries. I like Walmart, I like Home Depot. I love Amazon, who doesn't? I mean, it's been a winner. I've been along most of those names for most of the past month, some of them even longer. Disney, I've been long a year and a half and that just keeps working for me. The banks, I've called in the past. They didn't work so well over the last month. They didn't work so well year to date. I took a haircut on those and got back into lower levels. So I am re-long the banks going forward after taking a few weeks off and saving myself a few bucks. You know, it's funny you mentioned just, don't mean to interrupt, but what I like about this round table is yes, they went down. And it wasn't suddenly like that, I didn't own them. I just talked about them. You own it, one of the things I love about your newsletter, the honesty which everybody brings to this table is just a breath of fresh air. This month, I'm actually watching debt levels and how they're gonna react to the debt ceiling coming up. It's kind of underneath the table for everybody, but I think the debt levels in general are gonna become very important. The Fed is changing over. We've been talking about this in the back room. And I think those kind of events going forward are gonna really shape dollar market, gold and silver and equity markets in general. So I think debt levels are gonna become very important very soon. A debt ceiling battle when no one expects it to me would be a gold buying event. The last time we had a debt ceiling battle was in 2011 and gold reaches high of 1900. So I would agree it would be an event. I'm not sure that that's gonna take place this time. Doug's I'm sure got some good opinions on that also. But it's definitely something to watch out for because even if it's a minor skirmish, it could really tell you what might happen later on in the year in the fall. Very few are thinking about that. So that's very important. And for me, it's all about growth right now. I think we've had very strong so-called soft data. The hard data has been lagging a little bit. We had a very good ADP number, but I think we really need to see growth. If we get growth, we can overcome a Fed that's definitely more hawkish than it was. And then the other thing that we're all watching I think is are we progressing on tax reform? Tax reform is another big driver. So those are my two things. Are we gonna see the actual growth and how's that tax reform playing out? Those are my drivers. Okay, those. Drivers for the next quarter, I think important is this difference we're seeing between hard data and soft data. I think that that's very, very important. I think that the Fed, when we're looking at them, are they talking about just raising rates or are they now talking about stopping reinvestment? Stopping reinvestment could be much more important to the market and Royal at a lot more if it means that they could now stop reinvesting in the long end. And there's a lot of shorts right now in the very short end of the curve where they're looking for interest rates to rise, very, very big open position. And if the Fed changes their policy somewhat or tweaks it, you can see a huge short squeeze in the short end. Wow, no one's looking for that that I know. I wanna be sure when you say stop investing, are you talking about actual selling? No, no, not actually selling. Okay, because I wanna get that later on the show. In 100 years, we haven't seen that by central banks. But I do believe that instead of reinvesting in the long end per se, they could maybe reinvest in the short end and that would then shorten the duration somewhat of the portfolio. Do you know many, that's a not a consensus view. Well, I guess I'm good at those. Well, so that would precipitate a short squeeze and that would be unlike anything we've seen other than its Salman brothers many, many years ago. Well, we have a short squeeze there, but in top of that, you also have, people call it for three or four rate hikes which is very aggressive in our mind given the difference between hard data and soft data. And given where the stock market is relative to where the market is in general, but also there's three other things we should look at. Number one is the amount of margin that's out there that's fueling the stock market rally. And I think it's at all time highs. Yes, no, I just got that numbers just last weekend. I didn't like it. Never like it if you're bold. I think consumer debt, you look at the auto debt. I think that that's something that's coming to the fore right now. And then the other one would be the student loans. And where debt is there. So it seems that the consumer maybe is tapped out at these levels at very, very high levels in the market. And I think that's of concern, especially if the feds thinks that they're going to be raising very aggressively. So I think you'll see a move back in that. You know, Douglas, the credit cards are also maxed out by the way, it's all the way along, but this fed with three openings on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors and the disgrace they're currently being dragged through the mud here. And they probably deserve to be dragged through the mud here. Can they be as bold? Can they be as bold as they want to? Do they have to back off? Do they have to seem less partisan? Because since Election Day, without really improving their projections for GDP, for inflation, for unemployment, they certainly got a lot more aggressive on policy now didn't they? Now, you know, I'm a guy that kind of likes the bank, so I don't mind higher rates, but it is odd, I think, how much they changed their posture since November. You know what's funny? I was watching the coverage of Lacker, of known Lacker, and I think that a lot of us feel that by the grace of God, did we not take a call from a reporter and say the wrong thing? I mean, obviously, what he should have done was hang up and he didn't do that, and he's been living with that for a long time. But I do want to ask everyone whether, if you're President Trump, do you expect him to use it? To use it to say, listen, it's really, I got a clean house. I mean, if you have someone who saddles something, in two federal investigations, and he felt fine sitting on it, are these the people we want? I think that goes to the whole drain, the swamp. I think they definitely do not want these people, and so I think that this is the huge battle in Washington now between people that have been there for a long time and people that are coming in, and I think that battle is raging, and behind the scenes and in the media, but I think it's raging behind the scenes, and that's gonna affect all of us and our investment decisions because the way they handle that, at some point in time, a fight is a fight, and you can't be conciliatory, and so those battles spill over into all sorts of policy decisions. And I think Congress for a while has wanted a rules-based Fed. So they wanted some sort of a rule, whether it's a tail rule or something, to really determine rates, and only in extreme circumstances would the Fed be able to go against what the rule was saying. So I think this really starts opening the door for a rules-based type policy where Congress takes much more control of what goes on at the Fed, and I think that would provide a lot more clarity to everyone. You wouldn't have to be listening or trying to figure out what this word meant in this particular usage. I think it would be good for markets, too. Well, I was gonna say, frankly, I'd prefer that versus this ridiculous Fed watching where I mean I was doing my game plan for this week and the first thing I always start was, okay, who's speaking? Because I find that unlike, I'm a sports guy. I often talk about him friendly with a head coach at the NFL and he was questioning, well, how can those guys, how can an offensive line coach speak and disagree with the chairman? I mean, the idea that a linebacker coach could say, well, listen, I think that the franchise is wrong and that would change. That would change for the better. And you even have right now within the Fed, the New York Fed, Liberty Street produces a GDP estimate, which I think is close to 3%. The Atlanta Fed has GDP now, which is 1.2%. I was talking about being bullish on and the guy used the Atlanta Fed against me and I immediately came back with the New York Fed and he said, well, what is that? It's just a ridiculous game of poker that is not what we want. I do wanna ask everyone, I wanna go around. Yesterday, one of the largest money managers in the country said to me, Jim, you're too Trump-centric. You start the day thinking about Trump, you end the day thinking about Trump, may have money talks about Trump, you write in real money about Trump. Are we thinking too much about Trump or is it so necessary because he's a wild card, because he's so different? What do you think? I think you have to think about Trump. It's obvious that he's a little wild, but you know what? He is earnestly trying to accomplish what he's trying to accomplish. I don't think there's any smoke and mirrors with this guy. He calls a spade a spade. And that's all we can really ask for. Now, he's gotta get everyone else in line and that's gonna be very difficult because he has opposition within his own party. Surprised at that, that it was so vehement? A little bit surprised. I mean, I'm one of those people that is suffering from Obamacare, so it is something I wanna see replaced. I did not think that the first attempt was that much better than the Obamacare we currently have, so I would like to see improvement there, at least on the premium side, but I was surprised that they couldn't hammer it out before it became so public. Right, it's interesting because you said I'm one of those people, I bet you everyone at this table, I have someone who is about to turn 27 and that means they have to be on their own. It's a completely different world out there. It's a different, brutal world than what I expected in terms of what I would have to support my kid. Trump? I kind of go with what Doug was saying earlier in the piece that I think there's, I think we do get to Trump-centric. I'm not saying he's not important, I'm not saying he's not, it's extremely important, but there is hard data out there versus soft data, there is data out there that regardless of Donald Trump, the Republicans, the Democrats, Chuck Schumer, DeLane or whatever, things are going to happen because the math is baked in. And so when you're talking about credit card debt, you're talking about car loans, we're talking about all these kind of things. In 1998, long-term capital management gets destroyed and Wall Street bails them out. In 2008- They're pulling them out themselves, too. Okay, granted, in 2008, Wall Street gets destroyed and the Fed has to bail them out along with Europe and I mean it's a much bigger picture but I'm just kind of building it. Now we're up to almost 2018, 10 more years, we're 2017, 10 more years, we're nine months away from it and if we have another debacle, based on errors and problems, who bails it out? So who bails out the Fed? You know what I mean? I don't know and so my thought is this, every time it happens, we've consolidated, in 2008 there were 15 major banks, now there's five. So the risk, the more you consolidate and the more we've consolidated in order to solve the problem, I believe the risk has actually grown as opposed to not growing for some sort of major event. Then you throw in a Donald Trump and somebody that's trying to say, okay, I have to change this system and the contingencies become scary. I do wanna go back to the notion of whether the banking issue is solved or not but you surprised me, David, because what happens is that when I speak to regular people, okay, they say to me, North Korea, gotta buy gold, Egypt, friendly to them, gotta buy gold. Almost every one of the foreign policy initiatives or lack of initiative has spurred people to say to me, don't I have to be bigger in gold? Your customers, don't they see to some degree, I mean, it's North Korea thing. Okay, so now, I mean, North Korea, we have appeased North Korea forever. We feed them, we keep hoping they'll do something. We keep hoping China'll do something. Tell us, it says we're done talking. Done talking says to me, gold. Right, I think that, I think, right now, Sergeant and I were talking earlier and gold seems to be having a hard time getting through resistance at the 1260, 1265 level. It's been up there three or four times. It can't break through it and we're at that again and it backed off. Okay, and so we're in a range, a range bound between let's say 1210, 1200 and 1265 and I think it's probably gonna back off a little bit now just because short term, it's a trade. Right, right. That being said, our customers are doing just that, saying okay, wait a minute, where do they identify the risk and saying, I have to be somewhere outside of the financial system, the normal every day because it's all at risk. When you go into those kind of arenas, like okay, can I buy Procter & Gamble and not be at risk? No, you're still at risk. No, this is an existential trade, which usually we don't like to get into. We're all professionals. I mean, in the long run, if there's a nuclear war, well, we're not gonna really worry about our gold holders. But in the short term, it's a little nutty. It's a little nutty. A little nutty says to me, gold. It always has since my career started. Trump. I think it is important. One of the things that I look at, RSM does a middle market business conditions index and it's a fairly unique thing which, and from their latest data, when you look at it, you can tease out that basically the middle market and small market is really pending heavily on tax credits going forward or the tax changes. So if that debt's delivered, I think this optimism will continue. It'll spill over into real growth. I think as soon as we see any hint that we're not gonna get the tax, we get another one of those grown sort of moments like we've had over the past eight years. Do you think it really, it's impacted, I know many of the companies I talked to, March was not that strong. Well, obviously we saw the ADP number, it was pretty strong, but do you think it's in, that maybe consumer confidence peaked because of this? Yes, I think that's the real risk that we've peaked a bit and the longer it takes to deliver or get signs of delivering. Some of this hiring that went on in anticipation, some of this excitement where people rush forward plans, I think that could pull back. So that's the real risk. If any sign that tax reform is getting derailed, I think it's very problematic for both the economy and then ultimately the market. I think Trump-centric is really dependent on where you are. Certainly in the New York metropolitan area and in California, it's Trump-centric and people have very different views of Trump compared to middle America. Middle America looks at Trump and says, look, here's a guy, he's doing what he said he would do. He's trying against the swamp and the swamp's pushing back. So he's not losing support there. Whereas the metropolitan areas are sitting there but whatever he does, it's gonna be wrong. I think that when it comes down to the tax, it would be great if there was some sort of tax cut but people, when they get that tax cut, they're not gonna go out there and buy a new good. They already have all the cars they want. They already have all the education. You have to pay back the car and pay back their education. So people are looking forward for tax cuts not to do new purchasing but to pay the debt they already owe and that doesn't set as well for the economy. Well, let's do this. Let's be odds makers. Corporate tax cut, chances, repatriation chances in 2017. Just give us the odds for each one. The corporation tax cut, I think that's a gimme. I'd give that one a 85%. I think that the repatriation certainly, I think that that's probably has a 60 delta but I think you'll probably get about 15% of what you expect to come back into this country to actually come back into this country. I'm gonna go probably the opposite way that I think it's probably less than 50% chance that we get corporate done in 2017. And if we don't get corporate, I think repatriation has to be done hand in hand with corporate because that repatriation is gonna be used to pay for the first couple of years of tax cuts. So that has to be done hand in hand. So I guess about 50% with that as well. I think, I actually think that the corporate is gonna get done and gonna get done fairly quickly. I hope I'm, I guess I'm hoping that they can- Well, is this because Cohen is good and Mnuchin's good, better team in healthcare? And also, yes. And better team in healthcare number one, number two, because they failed in healthcare or because it's been such a difficult thing to do, I think that they're gonna say, okay, listen, let's get to some consensus. The Democrats can agree they'll just buy into it because let's get something on the table that not gonna be obstructionist. Corporate seems to be an easier way to do that than almost anything else. Now, when it comes to the repatriation, I'm not sure. I'm kind of with Doug, like how much do they actually get back? That's a whole nother question of what these firms really, everybody assumes they wanna bring all that money back. I'm not sure that's true. So you have to, that has to be part of the equation. It's still, whether you incentivize them to bring that money back or not, that money isn't just sitting there waiting to come back. It's out there. So you have to incentivize it and then they have to agree to bring it back. So I think that's a little bit of a, that's shaky there, I think. Okay, sorry. 100% of the corporate tax is called a good thought. 100%? Now- I mean, but they need to win that bet. No, they'll get a win, but everyone loves tax cuts. Everyone loves tax cuts, but 20%, 15%, I don't know. We may be dealing with something in the high 20s here. It may be something less attractive than we thought going in. Now, if we wanna see a 7.5% bump in S&P earnings over from 17 to 18 or something, we need that 15 to 20% corporate tax cut, especially if you're trading the rust since 2000. 28, I think the market would sell off on that news. I don't think that would be all gummy bears and roses. I totally agree, I totally agree. Well, it's just some individual questions to each of you based on some of the things that you talked about. Let's go with what you said in March was very right. So, April, what do we do? April, I think you're gonna see a continuation of this weaker dollar. I think that especially if yields do go lower from as opposed to go higher from here, then that's gonna hit down dolly yen. I think dolly yen is very interesting right now, especially given the saber rattling over North Korea and in the South China Sea with China. Obviously there's a meeting tomorrow with China, Trump and Xi, I think that's very, very interesting. I also think that the minutes may be interesting today, but I think if you look at the yen and in terms of the yen, the Singapore dollar, both of them could strengthen considerably from here if there is uncertainty in the region. And those Singapore dollars are easy to trade, these are easy to trade. Singapore dollar is the Swiss franc of Asia. And so when you hear gold, when you hear saber rattling in North Korea, we think Singapore dollar. And so people can charge in the Singapore dollar. The difference is that the MAS doesn't sit there on the bid and buy in every dollar and keep the Singapore undervalued. The Singapore dollar can actually appreciate. And so that's what I'm thinking right now in that region. Now I think a lot of the saber rattling is pushed by the Trump administration so they can get things out of the Japanese and the Chinese. And so they make it seem like there's a big issue. Well, they're like, you wanna go up a little? So you make it look like there's a big issue that could be dealt with in a military way, but instead in the background, that's really used as a sort of a three card Monty so you can get something done in the economy. So the criticism I had of last round table, they said, okay, listen, give me some symbols. Give me something you're talking about, shorty the DXY? Short the DXY for sure. There's a number of futures you could look at where you could sell the futures directly or you could buy the yen futures, certainly. But also there's the dollar index, there's long dollar ETFs. There's a number of ETFs you can trade just in the euro where I think that certainly the euro continues to be a buy. You can certainly buy the yen as well through ETFs and certainly through futures. There's a lot of different ways that the individual investor can take these positions and you can also do an OTC through a number of different platforms. Okay, terrific. Peter, you like leveraged loans? Continue to do that as an asset class? I think, you know, I still like the leveraged loans. So from the ETF space, that's BKLN or SRLN. We gotta go a little, BKLN? Yeah, that's the larger one. That's about $9 billion. So it's large and liquid. SRLN is a smaller one, but it's a managed one. And then you can move into the closed end funds where you still trade at a bit of a discount to NAV. You get a little bit of leverage. So you get an overall higher yield. I'm comfortable with that. As we move into the equity space, I like the MLPs still. I think that has a lot of backing from this administration. That markets, you know, run up since November 7th, but I think that could continue. And where I want to be cautious is anything in the VIX related space. So a lot of people are now trading all these VIX ETFs. Yes. So, you know, from the long side, there's UVX, Y, VXX, T-VIX, and those have performed very poorly. So people have taken to shorting them. And then there's the inverse VIX products, XIV, SVXY. It's become a real mouthful, but two of those products are in the top 10 of all stocks traded last year. So these are what people are trading. And I really am concerned right now that everyone's watched VIX go lower constantly. It keeps drifting lower. And people are selling too many options at a time we want to be cautious, because I think there is much more risk of some sort of event causing VIX to go higher than further decrease. So I want to be cautious on selling options here. I'd rather be buying options or buying some VIX products. Would you ever be willing to go against the HYG, the high yield? Yeah, I would be selling out of that. I would much prefer to be selling HYG, J&K, or any of the high yield mutual funds and shifting into that leverage loan. You've got the protection on the interest rate hike side, but you're also senior secured in the capital structure. So if there is a road bump or any problems come, you want to be in that senior secured part as opposed to the high yield area, which is unsecured. So I like that for a kind of overall safety way to get some decent income. Excellent. Now, David, you gave us the non-conventional wisdom that when the Fed hikes, you actually didn't expect the typical gold traded lower, but March 14th, right before the Fed meeting, but it's risen to 1,250. First, I need to know, well, someone asked me, how does he know this stuff? How did you know that? Because they're both, no, I mean, honestly, I'm telling you the depth of which people watch this. We're like, hey, you just put it out there, but I want to learn. And then second, what's next? I think the reason I learned that or called that is because you're just learning from history. The past three Fed rate hikes, once the rate height came into effect, up until that time, gold was getting beaten up because they anticipated the rate height. Once that news was out, it becomes a question more of what's really going on in the economy, what's really happening with rates, what's really happening. And it's all about real interest rates where they say, OK, what's the difference in the inflation rate versus the real rate? And if the real rate is zero or lower than zero, there's no advantage to bonds anyway, so why not get in safe haven and getting gold? And so if the Fed is raising rates, what they're telling you is, oh, maybe things are going to get better, maybe not, whatever. Once that event occurs, that's when you want to get in and pick a bottom. And that's all I'm doing this month. I would say this month, we've been hitting off the top of 1260, 1265. I think that's kind of a really tough resistance level to get into. My opinion going forward is that you should be patient. Buy the dips. Like in equities, we always say buy the dips. If we get a dip back down below 1220, you should start buying aggressively, if you can. Get out of cash and buy aggressively into gold. I don't think it's going to get below 1200, but a lot of our customers actually were saying they wanted to get down below 1200, 11, 90, 11, 75. It's too cute. And they get too cute. So it's like anything else. You can't be too cute. But I do think we're in a little channel here. And if you buy the lower end of that channel, you're going to be very well rewarded. If it breaks above 1265, that's a big indicator that the bull market's off and running and jump in. An indicator would be, if you get into some of the GDX, GDXJ, some of the mining stocks, the mining indexes, if they start to punch up a little bit and take off, that's been a pretty good indicator of that the gold level price is probably going to go higher. So they've been a precursor. They've been pretty good precursor in the last few years of the price levels of gold. So that's just another good thing to watch. Not 100%, but a good thing to watch. Sarge, I came out with, people asked me what I felt for Q2, and I said, I see a continuation of the classic senior growth rally, Disney, a 3M, starting to get into Starbucks. So you're embracing some of that theme, both with a Walmart, but also with a Disney. Why are those working? Because they are working. Walmart is the real surprise. Isn't it? Walmart's starting to work, even though retail's going the other way, they're embracing technology, they're embracing, they have this thing called store number eight, which is basically a technology business incubator. So they're starting to find, to decide they have to fight Amazon. I'm on both, so I don't know, but they are in this position with the distribution already in place that almost nobody else, except maybe Target has, where they maybe can put up a good fight. And as this trade evolves, you know what I do? I hedge through gold futures. You explain that to people, you explain that. That's going to be too glib for some of our viewers. They won't understand it. Well, you know, I mean, it's a little bit tough for a retail investor to open a futures trading account, but you can do it. Some of the brokerages do have them. And if you- And just for the interest of people who've just kind of started, you have to put some capital down. Oh yeah, they require a certain amount of dough in there. I think the minimum is something like 10 to 15 grand, which for your regular brokerage account, the minimum is probably like 500 bucks. But if you feel your portfolio is at risk, if you feel there's some kind of event taking place over a night or over a weekend, if you don't want to get out of your positions, but you're also a little bit scared, you can hedge by going along the futures space. And you don't have to just trade gold, you can trade oil, you can trade the indices themselves, you can trade almost any commodity, you can trade interest rates. I mean, the futures space is, it's almost limitless what you can trade or what you, if you're trying to accomplish something, maybe you just want to trade that space. I have, I took the day traders on Twitter all day long who only trade the Russell futures. That's their only product. So that's why I look at my trading levels in market recon. All right, I want to switch things here for a second. I want everyone to mention, because people like what we thought was the best, we kind of covered that, what is the worst thing that you want to be that someone's in right now so we can get them out? What do you think is dangerous that you hear people in a complacent way, oh. I think that, really you're saying like, where do you want to short the hype? Yes. Now, where the hype exists right now, I think is in the very short end, let's say the first four contracts of the your dollar futures space. So that's where people are expecting interest rates to rise based upon Fed statements. I think now we've heard between three and four this year, well we've already done two, so maybe there's two more, maybe there's one more. Whatever it is, when you go short these futures and there's a huge outstanding position right now in that, when you're short, you're expecting that the Fed's going to be right, and you're also saying that the stock market is going to keep on going up. Yes. That nothing's going to turn over on the things we've talked about, be it car loans or be it student loans, and that everything's going to go through that Trump's been talking about when it comes down to tax cuts. I think that that's a tremendous view to take and it takes a lot of confidence to be in that position. Those people who are in that know how optimistic they really plan it, and you think that they think that there isn't as much. Well, here's the thing, if you're in it at this stage, it's sort of, what's your upside? It's already priced in. So if you can take the other side, maybe you can lose four basis points, but you can pick up 20. And so I look at positions like that, which is Brexit would be a good example, where Sterling was trading at 150. The bookies had already said it was 100% priced in. There's no loss to be short Sterling at 150. The same thing when it came down to Trump getting in, Mexico Yen had collapsed because everyone said, he's, so we'll buy Mexico, we'll sell him because of course he's not gonna get in. And for me, that was a gimme trade. And we said, let's go the other way, and it made 11%. Once things are in certain positions and people are so confident and you can smell the hubris, that's when I like to sell it. Smell all the hubris, I'm using that in tonight's show. How about you Peter? What's dangerous? For me, I think it's energy. And this is where, I'm gonna come to you on this after. So this I wanna be very careful on is I really believe that we are gonna support domestic energy production. So companies, the MLPs will be a big part of that. Companies that build out the infrastructure, that drill. They are winners. They will do well. Those that are relying on the price of oil going up, I think that's a troublesome trait because I think if you look, Baker Hughes has the rig count, that's been steadily going up. I think the price of oil is gonna be capped at 55. We've had a brief reprieve. I would not be surprised to go back and test 45. So anyone who's looking at their energy holdings, I think you wanna bias it towards small companies that actually are part of the production, not the big holders of reserves. I think they will perform less well. So that's a strange thing to look at, but the price of oil I do not think is going up, energy production is. I think people don't recognize that they could be, one is going to help the other. I wanna ask you, cause people say, well, wait a second, does he wanna play it with the IMLPX? Do you wanna be in energy transfer partners and roll the dice? Or is it a one oak situation, enterprise, or a Magellan midstream, which we own for action alerts? And for me, I tend to stick a little bit more to the ETF. For me, it's more of a broad sector call that I think this will continue well. I think if you dig deeper, you can look at that. As you dig deeper though, if you're looking at individual companies, the one thing I think you have to be very careful of is what are the credit ratings of the company's bonds? That's why I worry about energy transfer. And remember all the problem with KMI when they had to cut their dividend. And they did a very good job protecting their investment grade rating. So to me, that's that very cusp-y thing for an MLP investor. If they're a triple B minus type creditor and you think they're gonna expand and risk that, that's a name I would want to avoid. Okay, and IMLPX, that's Indy, Mary, Larry, Paul, X-Ray, first the one that I have seen, it gives you great income and it gives you the diversified oil. I actually, I agree 100% with you that I think oil is getting very topical. I actually, I'm of the opinion that deflation is still a big problem. And so there's a lot of indicators out there that say inflation is going well and that helps the gold trade, which in the short term, I think it's very near-sighted. I don't think it really helps in the short term. I think deflation is actually a better trade. But, and the reason I'm scared to death of deflation is because right now in our country we have GDP to growth is 105, GDP to debt is 105% of GDP. We produce, maybe we're going up 2% a year or something like that. Our debt is going up somewhere in the area 4% a year. So on a short term basis, that can be hidden, that can be overlooked. But as you go out, the more time expires, the closer we are getting to some sort of event and it's just unavoidable. The math just says it's unavoidable. And so if you're talking financials, you're talking banks, you're talking, whether they raise interest rates, lower interest rates, at some point in time, it doesn't matter anymore and you get to the bonds and your energy companies that are all borrowing to flood with because they think they're gonna make X amount of dollars on the energy. Those kind of things come home to Roosta and that's where a physical goal versus trading in the futures versus going in the GLD becomes important because basically it's the old-time cash position. It was bonds, equities, and cash. Well, bonds and equities are the same now. They're debt-lidden. And by the way, so is cash because the government is so laden with debt that we've never seen this before and governments worldwide are laden with debt. So where does the bailout come from? So I don't wanna be a doom and gloom, but I wanna say is that just those are the pitfalls, those are the worries. So take some profits off the table, put it into something outside the financial system, a gold, a silver or something like that. Even some real estate, although real estate can get, I think it has to be real estate, it has to be producing real estate. It can't be debt-ridden. It can't be just built up on mortgages or something like that. And so if you are in space that is not related to debt, debt is the big, I believe, debt is the big problem, getting something non-related to debt away from debt and if you're in that, then that gives you that safe haven. That's what you need in this market because it's just, the pitfalls are there. It's baked in the math. We are in uncharted territory and that's a big problem because no one knows, I don't know. So I wanna be safe. If no one knows, hey, let's get some safety. Are you trying to tell us the Fed is not going to be able to continue? I'm trying to tell you, I don't think, I'm trying to tell you that the Fed probably doesn't know what they're doing. Are you all right? Zingo! Okay, 100% agree. What's dangerous in your world? Meaning too complacent, okay, let's understand because there's dangerous things that obviously are happening but I see people who are, they're owning Tesla and I've said I can understand that at Amazon and we both like Amazon but what's dangerous in the sense that it's not, it's gonna disappoint? You know, I mean this is so small in in comparison to what you guys are talking about, the Twitter, the people that wanna get out, that have written Twitter down and they're probably feeling like they better get out before it goes to zero, this is the wrong time, all right? They're getting into that wheelhouse where either they get taken over or they find support. I don't know if you really wanna own it long term but I don't think if you're already long in space that you wanna sell it here. And going back to Davy Boy here, I also think the Fed is going to hit a wall at some point, they're gonna raise rates in June, all right? I think that's on the tape but they are going to hit a point somewhere after that where either the economy's not growing and they're gonna force us to the brink of a recession or they're gonna have to back off just because nothing else is lining up the way that Jenny Yellen and her gang see it evolve. But if that's the case, I can't be in those bank stocks as you told me. No, you can't and that's why another thing. So how are you gonna handle that? The kids that betrayed the bank stocks with me, if you just rode this pony all the way from November, all right, you have a nice little gain but you haven't done anything in a month or two, all right? You have to trade the space, you have to understand where there's resistance, where there's support. I got out of Bank of America completely. I lightened my load on Citi, I lightened my load on J.P. Morgan. I doubled up on Key Bank because I think the synergies they're gonna have with the Niagara merger are actually gonna work in their favor. I don't want to travel trust and buying T for precisely that reason. This is just a special situation. I think the banks are definitely set up for a bit of a fail. I think the big money center banks are not gonna see the sort of trading profit they did in Q4. I think if you look at trading volumes and how they've been trading, I think they're set up for a bit of disappointment. I don't think deregulation's gonna help. So yeah, I would also be- I think it'll help. It can hurt. It's already more than priced in what it can help. Tarullo's gone, dude. Yeah, Tarullo, my insight from Tarullo was that he actually was the most hated man of finance. He was, until he's, no one went to talk about it because he's still on, right? Today's his last day. I know that he, even in that speech yesterday he gave at Princeton was, he says they've gotta raise more capital. And I think that when you go over Jamie Dimon's newsletter yesterday, he's saying, listen, we gotta be able to return more capital. You can see where the tension in the system was. How about that speech he gave yesterday, huh? I'm sorry that I went too far. You guys can do it. Oh, and you know what? Look, I read that and talked to some bankers after and uniformly they said, well, that's exactly what you didn't want. You had a guy who was in there right to the end saying to Goldman Sachs, you cannot principle. You cannot principle. And then the day that he's done says, you know what, I should've let him principle. That's a rank amateur. Yeah, it is a rank amateur. Do this last year. Do this two years ago. It is an academic rank amateur. I totally agree. On the Twitter, I spoke to Anthony Noto today who's the chief operating officer. West Point guy. Excuse me? West Point guy. West Point guy. Look, he brought the street public and I've had from him a great dialogue and be able to have the West Point cadets in the France. This has always come down to show it. You know, Anthony wasn't disappointed that Amazon got the NFL Rage for Thursday and I'll tell you why, because they wanted a subscription business. Anthony said that, look, Twitter isn't subscription obviously and so they wanted to go with Prime. But then again, obviously it's five times the cost of what they paid and they do have a lot more sports programming. East Sports, he mentioned something that I kind of find is an interesting thing. It's an interesting phenomena. But you know what, in terms of, this is still a takeover evaluation because I think the quarter's gonna be very bad. And what happens is that there are people who keep holding on. You see that by the way by following Twitter. I mean, I just said something negative about Twitter and my feed will be occupied from people saying Kramer doesn't know what he's talking about. I spend like 10, I probably spend an hour every day on Twitter so I know what I'm talking about. I wish I didn't. If there was no Twitter, I wouldn't talk about it. It's just a little $14 stock. I mean, it's kind of crazy. I wanna put something in just because it's real time. This market was going down and then Steve Bannon was removed from the National Security Council. Some people regard, I'm going to you, sorry, but I'm gonna do it because he's a powerful guy. You don't necessarily wanna be on the wrong side of it. But some people feel that Steve Bannon is responsible for some of the rhetoric that notches up the whole world crisis situation. Good news to see someone who's, let's say, a radical right going from the council? I'm not a fan of Steve Bannon. I'm not a pose of Steve Bannon, but I actually think it's probably good that he's not there. And the reason is because when you appoint these guys into these kinds of situations without proper vetting, without proper background, it's, I don't think it's really ever a good idea. And so I think Steve Bannon probably has some great ideas, probably has some, and he's very helpful to the administration. I think he's tremendous with the administration as far as combating the left and the radical left, that sort of thing because he's the flip side of that coin. He knows how to do better than that. But when you start putting them in the situations like National Security Council or something, maybe that's a little bit too much in his portfolio. Reduce the dossier, keep him where he's really good at it, and I don't know why, you know what I might. I mean, the market loved it. And I find that this is that whole Trump issue is that I love what you said, by the way. It's the east and the west coast. I am sure if you're trading in Iowa, you're saying, Steve Bannon, I mean, Trump, why aren't they focused on the fact that there's no way to stop Netflix, that it's going higher because there's a survey done that Netflix is pretty good, you know, that kind of thing. They really do come down on us in the east. I, as someone who's on TV all the time, I was constantly asked about Trump, so I would love to have a world where I didn't have to wake up and see what he tweeted. My wife is furious. I've got my column, okay? I've got the guys I follow and I have Trump. She says, why do you do that? Why do you follow him? I said, it's the most important column in the world. I am sure that the Chinese monitor his column very closely. I am sure that he might say to China, listen, let Twitter in. Tear down this wall and let Twitter in so we can influence those people because he is, he makes his policy through Twitter. It's kind of very, very interesting. And he's more apt to compromise than people think, in my opinion. Look, I was on The Apprentice for four years and the Trump you see is not at, except for when he's with the CEOs, not is, doesn't seem that jovial. Seems a little harsh, like the inauguration speech, Steve Bannon, and the Trump you saw there was, would stand him well to see periodically because it's the side that says, hey listen, we're all together on this. And we are all together on this, would mean Democrats, you better get on board because we're all together on this. And I wanna hear from each of you what we can do really, given the size of our debt load, what is really capable of being done in something like infrastructure and how could you structure it? Because one of the themes that I've adopted, the two things I've adopted that deregulation is really good and you can comment on that. But if we could get infrastructure, it really would matter. But maybe it's just impossible in terms of where our debt is. Well, I think that the debt part when it comes to infrastructure is different from debt that you bring on to purchase some things that don't exist. So you think that it could be the, it could do a $500 billion make America's roads great again, Bill? I think people would buy those bonds. So do I, 50 year? Yeah, we'd go out there, we'd buy a 50 year, 100 year, whatever it is. I think it would be a, yes, we'd pay you out of car. And you see that the roads are better, there's a nice new airport and you're not embarrassed when you're flying a JFK. People I think would go along with that. If they borrow a whole bunch of money to go and then go spend abroad for someone else's issues in their country, Americans are gonna have a problem with that. But they don't mind if America borrows to spend money internally. I sure hope to get, I mentioned that to Gary Cohen last employment day. And he was like, yeah, let's do that. I totally agree with you. I think that this is an issue of what's it for. As opposed to let's raise the tax. It's what's it for. And I think a lot of people want a 50 year bond that makes our country better for our grandchildren. Sure. I like that. Speaking of grandchildren, they could sell those in small amounts. My grandchildren? Yes, they could. You know what I mean? I said savings, George, I said savings bonds. I said $25 savings bonds and you literally do a campaign. You get some entertainers, go around the country, say look what we can do with the roads, like war bonds. And it's a war against the sagging in $4 trillion infrastructure. And it's a win. And I think that they are grasping for new ideas. I think that they, like everybody, everyone feels a little beleaguered. They gotta pick themselves up. I think whether it's a public-private partnership or some sort of toll concept, I think we've got to get away from this, oh, they issued $500 billion of debt. If they issued $500 billion of debt of things that will actually be able to repay that debt over time, whether it's through a toll, whether it's through payments at the airport, that's not the same as issuing debt, right? A company that would be cashflow net neutral, you could figure out ways to do this. So I think if you do this intelligently, I would really want to see 5G. I think that's something that we're way behind the world on. Yes, 5G internet for all our schools. Make it so we're up to South Korea. Right, and I think that you could get some really interesting public-private partnerships. You need that kind of impetus from the government. So I think there's a lot of interesting things that can be done. And people say, oh, they issued all this debt. It's debt that will generate returns. It's not, if we start building bridges to nowhere, then we're in trouble. That's just debt we're never gonna pay back. Absolutely. If it's well thought out and decently done. If it's the bridges that exist. Yes, that would work. And we could put Citibank on the bridge. My thought is, and I think Trump is actually going towards this. In order to do that, in order to issue that debt, and I don't have a disagree with what you're talking about, Jim, but in order to do that, you have to first fix a problem. The problem is that the American people right now don't believe that the debt is going to what it is. In New Jersey, they raised the gasoline tax and said, okay, don't worry, we're all going to the roads, and none of us believe a word of that because it's going to the general tax and it's going to where they want. Right, we absolutely don't believe a word. We don't believe, we do not believe a word. In New Jersey, I just figured, you know what, that's because the pension fund. Right, the pension funds are broken. The pension funds are broken. That's exactly what I thought. We should talk about that kind of stuff too, but because, so I think that Trump, in his first budget, said, okay, I'm gonna slash spending overseas. I'm gonna slash U.N. budgets. I'm gonna slash State Department. I'm gonna slash this. Those are the first kind of real cuts that if people can see that and say, okay, he's serious about cutting, yes, then maybe we can float in infrastructure bonds and we'll believe that that's actually what it's going to do. But if all they do is just float a new bond or say a new tax or what you were saying, people aren't gonna believe it. They're just gonna believe it's government taking out of my pocket again and that continues the process that's been going on for so long. Bust the budget. Do you get something done? I do like most of the budget cuts that the president has proposed. I think we need to cut almost everything across the board, except the military. I'm partial there. But thank you, JP Morgan, for the statistic. For every one law, there were 25 regulations propounded by Obama. Unbelievable. I mean, what are you doing? I own two small businesses and I only fear the government. Why? Because, oh my God, what's that new regulation? And I had to pay, I mean, one of the things I think people don't realize is you have to pay accounts and lawyers to monitor the government and they really, they're just dead weight loss profit more, right? They cost and there's no way to get around the cost and if they miss something, they're in trouble and you're in trouble. And they're likely to miss something sooner or later because there's so many rules with so much hair on it. Yeah, I just, I think that owning, I remember late George McGovern, he was, until he owned and in, he did not, would ever have any Republican ideas. And once he was in real business writing a paycheck, he realized, wow, the government is just way too bad. He was the most liberal guy, if I fall for him. Maybe ever, right. Business, that's one of the biggest costs, right? As everything else is becoming more efficient, it's harder and harder to generate income and then the regulation side, it's time consuming, it takes away, it's probably the hardest part of the business and it's very unclear how much of it's actually truly helping the end investor not get hurt. I think a lot of financial services as a whole, I think it's way overdone in terms of the cost and effort and monitoring versus what benefit is coming through. How many compliance employees, two actual guy or gal trying to make money, are there in these banks? Right, so I'm an individual investor, watching this round table and I say to myself, you know what, why didn't Kramer just say, what are you buying right now? What are you buying right now? I like the Euro and I like the end. You like the Euro? Still, okay. Even here, okay. Well, even hear me, the Euro's up a couple of percent from where it was the last time we sat here. It started, and it's tested higher, it's gonna keep on going higher. Right. The Europeans have turned around now and they're talking about reducing their computing. German corn registrations, 11% gain. I mean, the, the con then is, but Germany's doing really well. Yes. The U.S. has gone over there to Germany as well and they talked and the German financier, Snowballs, turned around and he said, look, now even the Americans understand we can't just bail out Greece. The fact that he said that means that the U.S. suggested it to them, why don't you bail out Greece? So there's, the U.S. is trying to find ways for Germany and other European countries to get their act together, get their growth higher and start raising rates so the U.S. isn't the only one because they want a higher Euro. So I think that the Europeans are behind the higher Euro, the U.S. wants a higher Euro, love it. Who buys that two-year, that German two-year? Is that just two? A negative rate? Yes. Who buys that? I mean, no, they're not idiots. Is that charter, charter buying? It's just about flight to quality and you're a fixed income portfolio manager. You've been told you have to buy a certain sort of debt with a certain sort of rating and guess what? You can't buy the Italian or the French. Although that stuff's close to zero too. Really, Germany's the only one. It's the only one in the pool and that's why the U.S. fixed income keeps on doing better. Even though the Chinese keep selling and selling it, moving it back to their country, the yield in the tenure doesn't really change that much because people have a lack of substitutes to buy. They have to buy U.S. 10 years. They have to buy Boons. Do you understand why so many people don't seem to understand how easy it is if you're in Europe to buy our bonds? I always, I mentioned, look, I think that's European buying. People say, well, Europeans don't buy our bonds. That's completely wrong. They do buy our bonds. Well, they do buy our bonds but it's much easier for the Italian just to say, you know what, I'll buy the German one or I'll buy the French one and he gets a little bit more yield and he doesn't have the FX risk. Okay. And so you can get different yield carries throughout all of Europe without having to take the FX risk. And certainly when the U.S. has a strong dollar policy, you love buying U.S. fixed income if you're in Europe because you know that the dollar's gonna be stronger versus the Euro. So maybe you get your 1.3% on the U.S. Treasury. But guess what? You also get a 6% move in the currency so you end up getting 7%. This way though, if the U.S. turns out, it says we don't really have a strong dollar policy but we do but it's in the long run. So that means shorter or a weaker dollar in the short run then maybe European's turn and say, well, why should I get that 1.3% if the dollar is gonna then weaken? Right, right. So I lose 5% on the FX. Much more important. And so I think that you're gonna find as the U.S. weak dollar policy gets out there more and more, the Europeans say maybe we don't wanna buy so many U.S. Treasuries. Not just the U.S. but certainly the Chinese are already getting ahead of it and the Japanese are beginning to start selling U.S. Treasuries. And you're a reducer portfolio because it's not about the 1.3% it's about where's the dollar gonna be when I get out of this fixed income. Okay. For myself, I would be shifting money out of both high yield, investment grade and in particular some of these big aggregate bond funds you know the bond funds that invest in everything. Those are gigantic. People keep pouring money into those. They keep pouring in and right now if we really are in some sort of transition shift in terms of where we are in rates those have the problem that they just buy whatever is issued, right? So the more of something that's issued the more of those funds own. I think those are gonna underperform massively. I would be shifting out of that and being A, more into leveraged loans whether it's mutual funds or some of the other products we've talked about but also starting to be more selective in picking and choosing where you wanna be and not just go with the eh, we'll throw it into these like big funds. I think you will do much better over that. And if you're on the dividend side of things I think you're supposed to be looking at the MLP space and Pauli pulling back a little bit from the bank space in terms of your dividend type stocks. Okay, excellent. Today? Today, I think I would, I'd ease up on some of my minors and junior minors and let them come in. I'd ease up on my goal and just have a little patience and wait for the dip because I think we're gonna get a little dip. I think we're just in a low period in the metals market right now. When you get that dip, don't be afraid because it's gonna be a great second half of the year, I believe. I gotta ask you, this is what you're doing. It's been a good first half of the year. Yes it is. I get asked by a lot of people, a guy came to me not that long ago, a carpenter working at my sister's place, he said, hey listen, these Canadian golds, they look so great and then comes up with a very small $3 stock. What do you do to people who say, look I got a $3 Canadian, I'm buying that. I think you have to be very careful because once again, those kind of stocks, if the price of gold is moving up higher, those are gonna be great and fantastic and you're gonna get a tremendous rate of return versus just the metal at some point in time. That being said, there's also tremendous risk involved in that and that brings up the point of some of these ETFs. Some of the ETFs, there's so little money in the gold space versus gold is less than 1% of overall financials and that includes the miners and all that. So there's so little money invested in that. You gotta be really careful because anything can move them. If you're going into miners, especially junior miners, any little blip can move them one way or the other tremendously and especially when you're dealing with indexes and futures where the leverage is tremendous. So you gotta be really careful of that. You gotta be cognizant of it and if gold does have a little bit of a dip here, be careful. You do have a public service on this, I gotta tell ya. There's so much money lost. Sarge, today. All right, I've been building long positions piecemeal in Slumberger, in Delta, and in Southwest Air. Oh great, okay, Southwest we bought yesterday from a chapel trust. And yes, absolutely, look yesterday was down 75 cents at one point. I mean they've given you opportunities at your day. And I've also, although I'm not buying the shares, I've been selling puts every week on Disney at prices I'm comfortable with just to raise a little revenue and because I want to buy Disney when it dips because I think it's going to 118 this year and maybe 128 next year. Right, now for people who are new to this, remember selling puts, you have to have some capital, I don't want people to do- You need a margin account, you need- And you have to recognize you're going to be buying the stock if it really gets clobbered, you're owning it, so have the money. Yeah, you want to be a trader for a little while before you try doing these sorts of things, especially if you're selling puts and you just have nothing hedged against it, you're putting yourself at some significant risk because you're going to end up if you're wrong or even if you're right, if you want to buy them. But you're going to end up buying the equity. When you're thinking you're making 68 cents or whatever, you may be paying 54 bucks for whatever stock it is. I had to point this out because I'm a feedback oriented person, there was so much feedback on our last roundtable, I just, some of it were from people who are new and new person thinks that's free money, I'm trying to make sure it's not- It's free money until expiration date. Exactly, now I monopolize the questions. If you guys, if you want to ask each other some questions, you've got a few minutes left and I don't want to make it so it's just me sitting here. Oh, darn. I'd love to talk, we haven't talked last roundtable, we talked a little bit about the European, the European, the problems over there and we really haven't touched on that because it's kind of gone away with the Netherlands thing and the vote went okay. But the French vote is coming up and then there's votes behind that, the Germans and it's really kind of gone to the back burner and I don't think it should be necessarily, I think that those, it's complacency. Once again, we're talking complacency, what are we getting complacency? If we've gotten a little complacent with those things that could definitely affect. You know, I think there's some complacency there but I don't think there's hubris. You know, I think they'll depend, all last night had certainly not a very good showing when it came down to the speeches that they were giving and then the debate and I think that really she's gonna move much more to the back burner. Certainly there's a fear that she could turn over and to become a new Trump for Europe but I think that that fear is really a 20 delta, or 20% chance of it actually happening and so given that's the case, it sort of puts France as being what's not really an issue anymore. When it comes to Brexit, you think, well, you know, the British have left. The only thing I'm worried about right now with Brexit is what's happening with Gibraltar because the UK likes to make a big deal out of small territories. Think Falklands and that perspective. So the Spanish, they've moved to warship right next to Gibraltar. They're saying, you know what, Gibraltar really should stay with us. The UK says, well, we're not sure about that. That could actually become an issue. Now right now it's in the back burner but I'm certainly watching it because nobody likes to see this kind of thing. Now, it's obviously wouldn't happen because Gibraltar wouldn't be like to become part of Spain again. No, it should be on the radar screen. Right, because then folks are gonna be saying, well, if that's the case, then this part of Italy should go independent and this place should, and it's just a disaster. So I think that it's something that I'm certainly watching a lot more now than I was in the pen. Certainly the last time we had a meeting I'd be thinking the pen is probably interesting. I'm thinking Gibraltar's interesting but otherwise throughout Europe, I'm more interested in the fact that inflation seems to be sticking up a little bit, that they're now talking about getting off, getting rid of the QE, certainly at the end of the year but maybe even sooner. They're now talking about raising rates and these sorts of things or this animal spirits that we've seen in the US already hasn't really hit Europe. I mean, if you look at how the European stock markets have done relative to the US stock markets, Europe's well behind the curve. And so if that's the case and I think that the Euro could rally versus the US, maybe it's time to start getting out of your US equities and shipping in some European because you'll pick up maybe the differential, maybe you'll take profit in the US but I think that Europe's behind the curve. ETF where you actually go and say, listen, Deutsche Bank's been really crushed. Santander is a bank I've done a huge amount of work with. They got sanctioned by regulators where the stock actually went up. I'm one of my specs at Santander. I really just think you take a look at this thing or you can do, there's tons of great ETFs. There's a lot of European stocks that have taken the punches on the chin. Yes. And they've given the news out there and a lot of the time in the US you find that maybe the news doesn't come out or it's bailed out. And in Europe, we're not really seeing that bail out and so you're seeing some equities that have taken tremendous hits. Yeah, I think some of the European bank ETFs look attractive. I think there's a lot more upside to some of the European banks. And the one thing I think- Do it with the ETFs though because we don't know which one has the event risk. Right, it's too hard to know the event risk so I much prefer to do it through the ETFs again or mutual funds. You know, get a manager out there who can pick them for you but I do think you should be shifting some value to there. One lesson that we all have to take away I think it's actually the opposite of complacency is, you know, we're talking, we get our news typically from London who tends to be anti-Europe. New York kind of wants to be anti-Europe. If you actually talk to people who live in France and you know, most of Europe, even Italy they love the concept of Europe. Yes, thank you. Right, so it's actually the opposite, right? We saw the mid, you know, coast here the middle part of the country was actually wanna change. The middle parts of the country there outside of the big cities, they're for Europe. So I think we over-emphasized how well Le Pen was playing and stuff because we were taking our own lessons and we get too much of our news out of England which is anti-Europe. And that's the change. If you go with that as well, the recent polling says that 66% of everyone in France wants to stay in Europe. Yes. And that reminds me of the polling used to happen with Greece, everyone said, Greece is gonna leave, but you know, 70% of Greeks said we're not leaving. So we gotta go back to the heart and get the information from the people. The country they're not leaving. People aren't as negative on Europe as we get. What is that doing to European corporates with the tapering and the unrest and this optimism that you're speaking about in the banking space? I think you still like European corporates. I've gotta, it's been too bad for too long. It's, people are underweight it. And just like some of these gold miners, their float in Europe is much smaller than it is here. The free float of stocks, particularly if you go look at countries like Italy, if you buy an Italian ETF, you really are buying the Italian banks whether you like it or not. Right. But there's such a little free float if some money starts flowing in, they can perform very, very well and probably get toppy. So I think right now there's that opportunity to be still in probably the second or third wave. Investors, smart money's been shifting to Europe. I think it continues for a while. Then you want to get out, but you do have to be cautious because it's a much more volatile market than the US market on any amount of flows because it just doesn't have the depth. So tapering is not an event. I do not think it's gonna be a problem. I think of anything it's going to, you know, hit German bonds who I think are price ridiculously relative to any other market in the world. So tapering hits them the most. I don't think it's gonna hit corporates. If ECB does tapering, it's because it's a good thing. Not because of political pressure to raise rates. Although the AMIs were a little shaky this morning. Maybe, but the inflation you can feel is animal spirits there. So if they actually do something, I think it's gonna be less political and much more to do with the fact that, you know what, maybe at some time, you know, Veidman is also gonna become, it looks much more likely that Veidman is gonna become the new ECB chair after Draghi leaves. If that's the case, you know, there's nothing he likes to do more than raise rates. Wow. Are people gonna leave the UK? Is Scotland gonna leave? Yes. I don't think so. I think we'll talk about it some time, but I think we'll leave. It'll be fun to talk about. All right, we gotta wrap things up. I want to thank everyone for bringing their best. You guys really do. I want to thank Douglas, Sarge. We, every morning, Peter, I know we can do some fixed income work with you. David, I gotta tell you, I know I don't want to slight anybody, but there were more guys who said, I'm buying gold if they heard that panel. Maybe we scared people, or maybe it's just a real good investment. Thank you so much for everything. Thank you very much. Thanks very much. Thank you.