 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network For the first time in it feels like a decade We have a non Nutso field in a PGA for this week It's the rocket mortgage classic and things seem pretty much wide up We're gonna talk to Brandon Gaddula getting his read on this course at Detroit golf club Breaking down the field for this week and where he sees value if value exists over at Fandall sportsbook Welcome on into covering the spread. That's right here on the Fandall podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Saunders I am a senior writer and analyst for a number fire Joined here as mentioned by Brandon Gaddula check him out on Twitter at Gaddula 13 You can find his work over at number fire calm where he is the senior managing editor Brandon Rocket mortgage classic coming up at first Keegan Bradley You bet on him just not to win the whole thing had a group bet on Keegan though So you were on the right guys you had Brian Harmon top 20. He finished tied for seconds So you were on the right guys last week got to feel good heading into this week as well Yeah, I mean, it's been a pretty good season overall Those are good sort of teachable moments as to You know, maybe not throwing everything at at your outrides I Think also this week in particular That might be relevant kind of a tight week For value, but yeah, I mean the model largely has been a success this year And that's that's always nice to see because that means I don't have to go in and tinker I just got to keep updating the data and let it let it do its thing It's nice to get to that point where you're no longer Constantly tinkering. I feel like I didn't get there with F1 until three weeks ago And I've been working on that model since fall of 2021 So it's like it's reassuring when you start to feel good about the model in Concept, but then also seeing the results of it and it feels like for you You're there with PGA where you can kind of just like let things run and see where you see value And also, you know the weak spots of it you know the strengths of it and kind of Tailor that and it seems like this year you found your groove with regards just kind of like optimizing what you got Yeah, um, you know, I've messed around with a lot of different models One of which included, you know strokes gain level data and I was trying to bump up the sort of predictability our predictiveness of Things like I mean stroke skin off the tee is is the most predictable of the four stroke skin stats, you know It's it's you know the the common example is You know long drivers guys who are gaining strokes off the tee They're gonna be able to do that week over week rather than The best putters who might not you know have a few putts fall some of the weaker putters I can get it going but they're not gonna add 40 yards of distance all of a sudden So I mean I tried a lot of different stuff and then you run into incomplete data you're trying to like Impute data for for these younger guys and you can guess really wrong. So yeah, I mean it's really based in adjustments to round-by-round scoring With enough data in there for things to smooth out We're gonna learn over, you know a year plus of data With certain weighting who's actually a good golfer and you know as I as I say every now and then really what the model does Yes, kind of it does sort of predict who is most likely to win things like that But ultimately it just says because now good these guys have been this is probably about how good they're gonna be This week and given that here's how often they should win and it just makes it simple because what it ultimately helps with it's not buying in on super small samples and reacting to one or two weeks of really great data or For someone like a calling more cala who really struggled with last week It's here to remind us that he's not a he's not gonna miss the cut every week and For someone like Justin Thomas really can be really really hard to figure out how he's been golfing Trying to figure out where he should be and That's what the the model can almost do and we're gonna talk about JT We're gonna talk about the favorites of this week and get you ready for the rocket mortgage classic here in just One second the first day reminder to make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast We were here every weekday breaking down Golf MLB UFC NASCAR and Formula one both in action and this week as well You can find all those right here on the covering the spread podcast feed If you like what you hear leave us a five-star rating on Apple podcast or Spotify Also, check us out each week day on the Fandal YouTube page and on the Fandal TV Plus app Baseball season is in full swing And there's no better place to get in on the action than Fandal America's number one sports book because right now new customers get a no-sweat first bed up to $1,000 Listen to $1,000 back in bonus bets if your first bed doesn't win So don't miss a chance to get a no-sweat first bed up to $1,000 when you join Fandal today Fandal official partner of Major League Baseball Major League Baseball trademarks used with permission must be 21 plus and president select states first online real money wager only $10 deposit required refund issued is not with drawable bonus bets that expire seven days after receipt restrictions apply seful terms at Fandal comm a sports book Fandal is offering online sports wagering in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas Star Casino LLC gambling problem called 1 800 gambler or was a fandal comm slash RG in Arizona 1 800 next step protects next step to 533 4 2 in Connecticut 1 8 and 8 7 8 9 7 7 7 7 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Indiana 1 809 and with it in Wyoming in Kansas 1 805 2 2 4700 in Kansas K s gambling health comm Louisiana's 1 8 7 7 7 7 7 0 stop in Massachusetts gambling helpline ma.org or call you 100 3 2 7 50 50 for 24 7 support in Massachusetts gambling helpline I just did that one whoops in Maryland MD gambling help that org in New York 1 8 7 7 8 open wire text open Y and in West Virginia go to 1 800 gambler net Now as mentioned this week's rocket mortgage classic is at Detroit golf club Brandon They've been there a couple of times thus far. So what should we know about the course for this week's events? You've seen this course four times now and if you looked at just the past three winners You would probably have a specific take away in terms of what stats matter Those past winners being Coney Fiennow in it 2022 Cam Davis in it 2021 or Cameron Davis depending on your your source Low-key a spreadsheet ruin or it's not as bad because you know what the change is going to be but Definitely not help Stevens or Sam. Yeah. Yeah You know, it's they're small Matt and Yves Smith now Matthew and Yves Smith, you know, two very different players, but And Bryson this yambo. So again, that's Tony Fino Cameron Davis and Bryson this yambo the past three winners at This course so you would think okay driving distance is what matters and It's not necessarily bear it out in the stats that way if you look at the whole field Nate Lashley won the inaugural event in 2019 Of course after Monday qualifying one of the better stories in golf in a while back when that was a golf story Like when that's that's what that's what we're talking about in golf But you know kind of just average length relative to par and again going back to like digging into the details of the stats It's not like driving distance is an absolute must What is a must is scoring? The winning scores have been 26 under 18 under 23 under and 25 under now One of the things with just looking at winning scores that can be a little bit misleading is if there were runaways and we've seen a lot of those We've seen wins by six five and three shots and then one of them Was a playoff. So, you know, technically those scores look a little bit inflated, but you're gonna need to go Around 20 under and frankly You know with where golf is currently it's just getting in my opinion worse in terms of how good these these golfers are how far they can hit it and So I'm kind of thinking it's gonna be a little bit more like last week where yeah, it was a designated event but a lot of Shorter hitters were were in you know in play Which you know, you can also flip as an argument against the fact that we don't need to roll the ball back Because last week it was you know, we had some shorter hitters up there But that's you know, I'm not gonna get into that I'm just saying like the school the actual scoring relative to par You're gonna have to make a ton of birdies for these outrights to hit and scoring scoring potential I mean scoring like opportunities are tied to Obviously greens in regulation or greens and like under regulation. So distance will help in that regard But it's basically you need to be in position off the tee not completely off the planet and Then hit your irons well enough to give yourself those birdie and potential eagle looks So really what I'm looking for what this course demands is ball strikers who can putt I think you could make the case for all of those big hitters who can kind of get the putters going Finau You know, he's been someone fun to track in terms of regression where he makes a lot of long putts But again distances and a must and I think the real takeaway here is that the only archetype that I think is gonna have a hard time Winning are the really really awful putters who have really bad You know underlying data and what I mean by that is putting from like five to ten feet or within 15 feet That that's the more predictive range long-term. So that's kind of anyone's game I'm I'm fighting I'm fighting a WWE reference here, but it's pretty much anyone's game this week Aside aside from the really bad putters, I think and that is a tragedy for us as like old-school heat check podcasters the bad putters, you know Might not be getting there But let's talk about the top of the odds board for this week over at fan dual sports book We do have Tony Finau checking in at 12 to 1 He is kind of separated a bit with calm or a cow or Ricky Fowler at 14 to 1 then down just a bit though It's Justin Thomas and I wanted to discuss him briefly because Thomas briefly shortened to 14 to 1 yesterday Obviously didn't get a lot of bites at 14 to 1 is lengthen back out to 18 to 1 Thomas I had basically written off before last week But then did show some life across the weekend this past weekend. So with Thomas 18 to 1 Have you seen enough there to consider him at a I would you could say relatively short number You could also say if it were like a year ago, this would have been like a disrespectful number to JT in this field So I think he's he's fascinating. What do you make of Justin Thomas right now? Yeah, so It's it's one of those instances and I picked that name in particular Due to the fact that I knew we were gonna talk about him and talk about how a model of any sort can sort of help you Get an actual sort of realistic age and the the model is only as good as the input So we need to figure out like at what level Justin Thomas should be expected to play this week and like that's kind of tricky because you know There were there were sort of rumblings that he's been hurt And it would make a lot of sense that he his drop was you know related to Injury of some sort and that's why I find last week's data. I really interesting digging into just one week Is generally a bad thing to do but for someone who potentially, you know Based on the rumors could have been hurt I think it's a little bit more impactful and he was he was second in stroke scheme approach for the week at the travelers Fourth in around the green play, which I will shout out. That's a very fluky stat almost always But we know that he's a good around the green player long term the putter though Ice cold for JT Notably though, he was 13th in driving distance among guys who made the cut Which is a good sign that the health is trending up or that whatever was sort of holding back his swing It is kind of maybe a bit gone the the putting stats though are a bit worrisome He's been a sub par putter from within 15 feet. I've been a 34th percentile Even over the past 15 rounds though, like or sorry the past 50 rounds. He's 14th and ball striking So that's a pretty long sample for someone who's been struggling I will say that he's kind of errant off the tee which you don't necessarily want for this week so how I'm gonna phrase this with with JT is I don't really see enough in him right now to continue doubting him But I don't I but I also don't particularly think he's someone I'm targeting this week I know you kind of made a comment that this number would probably be Insulting to JT of old and like P JT. Yes, but I think it's actually a good enough number currently That I'm still out on on Justin Thomas So out on him, I think that a lot of times when guys are overvalued We will like look for group bets against them look for three balls against them are you also avoiding those and Given the prospect that JT is looking better now I'm asking for myself in case JT in case someone else pops of the value that three ball against JT this week specifically I Don't I don't think that I would even go so far as to say that I like go out of my way to target Like target guys who I think are overvalued because that Can kind of lead me to thinking that other guys are better values than they are so for me I'm gonna take like the the model way out and say I just model all of the groups in head to head So that's all factored in for me I Think you could probably if you're if you want to go that way Make a case for it. The real issue is like everyone else is Sort of well I think that my bigger question was like if you showed value in a three ball against JT Would you worry the model was undervaluing him to the point where you would avoid taking that value? Um, you know, so I do use the past year of data. I wait recent rounds. I could see the case for that Okay, that's that you're coming at it from an angle of Like attacking golfers who I think are overvalued. Yeah it's more so like because like I use data golf stuff and I felt like in the major sometimes the The live guys given their weird sample could be undervalued in three balls So if there was a golfer in a three ball with a live golfer I might not take the value out of fear that those other golfers are being a bit undervalued and like I'm not sure from there with JT where he might be undervalued by a model But like that's kind of like the thought process. I'm going with is like Fearing that to an extent So we're not in on Justin Thomas at 18 to 1. Are there any outrides you do like this week at vandal sportsbook? So I'm gonna have to do some audibles on the fly here Um based on how the odds have shifted since I took my notes For this because I had Collin more a cala. I was going to go back on the uh You know get some some calabunga action at 18 to 1 but now that he's at 14 I don't see it. Um I mean, I don't I don't hate it. I have him around like 16 to 1. Yeah, so again, it's Yeah, it's one of those situations things have shifted around. Um, I'm also really close with with foul ricky fowler I have him around 16 to 1 as well. He's 14. So I would at least say you know just a spoiler alert there's um There's not a whole lot. I love this week based on how the odds are falling as of Tuesday morning So I would say at least keep an eye on more cala and fowler. I think if you can get them at like 16 Or longer, um, if they shift here on on on vandal sportsbook, that's appealing But again on the fly, I'm gonna go with sum jm here, uh, 22 to 1 his odds were What were they here? Well, I don't have Well, I do but I don't want to waste time. Um Some jm is kind of someone I lump in with calling more cala often I find that they're pretty similar archetypes, but that's actually kind of unfair to more cala because More cala is one of the best iron players that we've ever seen and I still have like a Thought process with sum jm where when he came on to the tour, we thought he was going to be a great iron player And that's really not his strength. His strength is like being Neutral with the irons and being really quite good at everything else Over the past 50 rounds he's seventh and strokes gained off the tee according to data golf 15th around the green and 20th and potting so top 10 and everything In a course where yes, I want iron play to lead to birdie chances It's an easy enough course where that kind of Takes away the importance of being super precise with the irons in the first place even though The greens are a bit small. They're not like tiny So I think some jm at 22 is now Where I would start if I was starting from what we're looking at right now So if you were able to get more cala or fouler 16 to 1 or longer, I think the 18 number is probably a bit more appealing to get some more cushion There's some jm 22 to 1 right now at fan dual sportsbook For the outrides any other outrides you are considering here or is it just primarily in for you? Let me see where So I had a long time of a long process of Looking for for value and I didn't quite update things, but jg spawns still 60 to 1. I think that's an that's an appealing number He does qualify as someone who would classify as a sub par putter, but he's not completely horrible And that that should appeal to us because he's a top 30 ball striker among the field Um He has also been top 32 at this course in all four years He's one of two golfers in this field to make all four cuts at this event scott stallings being the other I think that this is one going to be one of those courses where there's a lot of flukiness in terms of how Past history kind of defines how you play the course because it is pretty like I don't want to call it just a putting contest, but Stroke like like if you go back, I think natal actually was second in strokes game putting. I think brison was first I think Cam davis and fina were both top 15 With really good around the green numbers too like abnormally high. So like it was kind of a short game competition um So I don't think that we're going to see a ton of like predictiveness necessarily in terms of Of course history, but whenever you have it and you have someone who's a good iron player Who maybe do for a little bit of positive putting regression? I'd buy into that and then Um, I would just keep an eye on lee hodges. He's a hundred to one Sorry 110 to one. Um, I like him a bit better Is maybe a sprinkle there So you don't have to jot that one down officially, but he's a really good ball striker and an accurate driver I think you could do worse at you know This is the kind of course where you can take a long shot. I believe cam davis was 101 when he won this um You know shout out cam davis because I liked him that week, but um Yeah, I think like this is like 250. I think when he won This is the kind of week where a long shot can be in contention. So, um, maybe a sprinkle on lee hodges and with jj spawn he has some like Nightmare weeks on the greens, but he's not like consistently always losing As a putter like it's just kind of like he has like these nightmare scenarios So like the overall numbers look bad and they're bad, you know, he's not a good putter, but it's not like cheffler where you just kind of bake in like A little bit lost on the greens no matter what he can't have weeks where he's actually okay in that regard as well He's around a 30th percentile putter from within 15 and from beyond 15 this season again, that's not like red red flag like sound the alarms territory, but You know, it's not uh necessarily Exactly what you want then again if His t-degree game is on I mean, he can lead this field for in particular and in t-degree Okay, so some jm is brandon's favorite outright 22 to one considering jj spawn 60 to one And then maybe li haj is 110 to one if you want to have a sprinkle there on a long shot as well Let's look at the non-outrights now brandon any of those catching your eye over at vandal sportsbook Well, I had this before pivoting to sungj to win, but sungj m top south korean is plus 150 um I'm not seeing tom kim listed. So just take note of that. I have sungj m then in In uh this one at even money um Can you find it? Nope? I've given up. I don't see it. So we're just gonna pretend it's there Um I think I know where to find it, but it's gonna be a lot of work and it's thought it's not worth the effort to To find us just go ahead and uh, you can go to schedule go schedule here. I don't want to man This is so much effort. I think it's close to the bottom. Maybe fair enough. Okay Well, I related out the case for liking sungj m um And again, you know with I think you swore past it, but did I? This is what a podcasting should be only a visual medium. There we go. Finally Uh, I know there's like a lot of hype for for uh, junglin on or ben on again But uh, realistically sungj is uh, the right play here at plus 150 So are you saying that you don't want to go ben on in a putting contest? I would not want to do that. Uh, I'd rather go with uh, sungj m who is again top 20 in putting with I believe some of the better Yeah, he's an 84th percentile putter from within 15 feet, which you absolutely love to see and he's 20th percentile on long putts Which means he's regression probably do for some regression getting some of those longer putts to fall While maintaining the consistency within 15 feet So love to see that and then all else the only other thing I could find And I modeled out all these all these uh groups and stuff, uh christian bezadenhote top south african Uh plus 175. I have that one around plus 150 for uh bezadenhote um He's the only one for me over the past Year with all my adjustments with a positive strokes gain trend Uh in my model. He's at a plus uh 0.55, which you know, doesn't necessarily move the needle from an outright standpoint But compared to I think it's seven total golfers. Maybe six total golfers in this uh group For to have him be the only one positive He came out to to be a value when I sent this one out So uh like bezadenhote, uh top south african Plus 175 at a course that should really uh fit him Pretty well due to the fact that he's just such a good short game player And the other one again was sung jam top south korean, uh plus 150 tom kim not currently listed there So account for that if kim has added to this market later on then obviously change a course there and reevaluate the odds But at least as of right now sung j a value at plus 150 That is all that we have here for today on covering the spread breaking down the rocket mortgage classics So brand I want to thank you as always for singing by today spreading your knowledge about uh the pga tour Talk my favorite values. I appreciate it as always and good luck to you once again this week Yeah, uh Love coming on to talk golf Not necessarily my favorite week Not necessarily like my favorite uh event to watch but it should be Uh a good one to track anyway because tracking golf is always more fun than than I think Just because you know It's golf Yeah, it's a lot of fun. It can be a lot of fun even when it's not uh at its peak for sure You can find brand on twitter I could do with 13 I am on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s as a reminder Make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast If you like what you hear leave us a five star rating on a podcast or spotify And uh check out the fan dual youtube page and fan dual tv plus. We are back once again tomorrow. Good luck to you Whatever you're betting for Tuesday night. We'll talk to you again soon. This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network