 In 2009, the Project Management Institute PMI announced their book of the year as the publication entitled Managing Complex Projects a New Model, declaring it a groundbreaking study of complex project management. In the preface to the book, the author writes, It is now becoming clear that our conventional project management processes are inadequate when dealing with complex projects. Research is underway by the Project Management Institute and others to determine what makes projects complex and to learn how to manage project complexity. Many thought leaders in the field of project management are presenting alternative approaches to managing complex projects. We're now realizing that new approaches are desperately needed to manage complex projects in the ever-changing global economic environment. The book goes on to talk about how for organizations to survive and thrive in today's global economy, they must find ways to dramatically improve the performance of large-scale projects. It talks about how applying the concept of complexity theory can complement conventional project management approaches and enable us to adapt to this new context of having to deliver large-scale complex projects under uncertain and volatile conditions. A project is a temporary endeavor composed of a set of tasks that are coordinated into achieving a particular result. It is designed to execute on the organization's strategy. Tasks are integrated into processes to ensure the work is coordinated and completed within a given set of constraints such as time, quality, scope, budget etc. Thus projects have a set of boundaries that define them and they take place within a particular environment. Like organizations, projects are systems. They can be simple linear systems or complex systems. In this section we're going to talk about the qualitative difference between the two so as to understand why we need a fundamentally different approach to our traditional management methods when dealing with these complex projects. We'll start by talking about the nature of linear standardized projects with some examples. Moving House is an example of a simple standardized project. It is a relatively straightforward process. We know the current state of the system, our present house with all our things in it. We know the desired end results, the house we're moving into with all our things there. The environment within which our house moving project will take place is relatively stable and predictable. Thus the project simply consists of completing a very limited number of well-defined stages in a sequential order. There are of course many examples of more complicated projects. Finding an airplane is a good example of a very complicated project. There are many parts, many instructions that need to be followed exactly and many stages that need to be completed over a prolonged period of time. But although complicated it is still a linear deterministic project. We know the starting state, the desired end state and we can decompose the project into a clear set of sequential stages that follow a deterministic linear projection. So let's itemize the key features to these standardized projects so as to be clear about them. Firstly we're dealing with a well-defined project. With these standardized projects the statement of the work, the scope of the project and its boundaries are reasonably well defined. We know where we are and we know where we want to go to. Secondly the project can be decomposed into a set of parts. The project can be broken down into a set of stages and these stages can be performed in isolation and then combined to produce the end result. Thirdly the environment is relatively stable and predictable. The environment within which the project is taking place is relatively unchanging and there are a limited number of elements interacting in a well-known linear fashion making extreme events extremely unlikely. Finally standardized procedures can be applied. We can use a project management methodology that has been developed and undergone continuous improvement after use on several previous projects. We're able to use best practices and lessons learned. We follow the well-defined lifecycle phases and we have forms, templates, checklists and guidelines to assist us through each stage of the project. Much of our project management methods were developed during the industrial age to deal with projects of this nature and have proven effective and scalable in delivering large-scale industrial projects from building national power grids to landing people on the moon. The problem arises when we have to deal with more complex situations which is increasingly the case. So let's start with an example of a complex project. One example of this might be trying to improve the standard of living within a particular disadvantaged area of a city. We're dealing with many diverse elements from crime prevention to education to public services to infrastructure, social workers and so on. Multiple stakeholders who have disparate opinions about the current state of the system and its desired future state. Added to this the neighborhood represents a unique social, cultural and economic mix that would reject any standardized procedure or process for altering it. The environment within which the project takes place may be dynamic and volatile. A financial crash may occur within the broader economy or there may be major changes in the political regime. Lastly we're dealing with the whole system. Optimizing any component in isolation would be of limited value in achieving our desired outcome. We would need to work across traditional boundaries creating synergies to tackle interdisciplinary problems from different dimensions. So let's analyze this project a bit more to untangle what makes it truly complex instead of just complicated. To start with we're not exactly sure where we are and where we're going to with the project. In complex projects we do not have complete information and knowledge of the system we're dealing with. We may be starting the project with an ill-defined scope thereby requiring numerous scope changes throughout the project and consequently having a moving target as an end point. In such a case we have to take a step and then see where we are what the goal now is and then readjust before taking the next step. The outcomes to the project cannot be fully envisioned at the inception of the project and then simply delivered as planned but constant adaptation is required. Secondly these projects are often taking place within a complex and volatile environment. As with our example previously complex projects are open to their environment meaning they are interdependent on and embedded within larger systems. Projects may be subject to constant and volatile change. Changing technologies, changing business and market environments, changing organizational structure and policies and change among the project's key stakeholders and change in strategic directions which are often outside the direct control of the project team. As we've seen in previous lectures these complex environments are non-linear meaning there is also a much higher likelihood of extreme events occurring. Thirdly standardized procedures cannot be used. Complex projects are more like living organisms than machines for which we can have instruction manuals. They have to evolve over time in response to the particular local conditions and they may also go through phase transitions into new unpredictable states. Lastly complex projects cross traditional boundaries and deal with multiple diverse stakeholders. There is often a complex social dynamic to large projects. Governance will appear in the hands of many rather than in the hands of few. Stakeholders may represent widely divergent political, cultural and social values and beliefs. Within this environment there is a strong need to create a context for common understanding of objectives. Communications and stakeholder analysis become central. In this section we've looked at our traditional approach to project management that is designed for standardized well-defined endeavors within predictable and stable environments. We've talked about the key features to complex projects such as uncertainty in defining our objectives meaning we have to take an adaptive flexible approach the changing environment within which they take place and their holistic and interdisciplinary nature.