 Welcome traders to the Tick Mill weekly market outlook for week commencing the 29th of November with me Patrick Munderley So starting with the US on Monday we get October pending home sales last print minus 2.3 percent We're looking for a median estimate of 0.7 percent 7 percent on an expected bounce back after September's surprise fall. We'll also see November Dallas Fed Index last out 14.6 looking for a median estimate of 17. This will provide a timely update on manufacturing in Texas. We'll also get Fed Speaker Powell as you speak along with Williams, Hassan and Bowman. On Tuesday Prince of Notes are going to be November Chicago PMI last time 68.4 expecting a 67 print supply disruptions and Delta are ongoing issues. We are also looking for November consumer confidence index last out 113.8. Median estimate for this print is 110 confidence to be held back by Delta concerns and again we will have additional Fed speak in terms of Chair Powell and Yellen who are before a Senate panel and we'll also hear from Williams and Clarida. On Wednesday November ADP employment change last time 571 K looking for a 515 K. Another strong result is expected we're also going to receive October construction spending last out minus 0.5 percent looking for a plus 0.5 percent this time and expected lift to give strength in terms of the housing demand that we are witnessing in the US. We'll also get November ISN manufacturing last out 60.8 looking for a 61 print this time. Manufacturing has been strong despite the supply and Delta concerns and again we will have Fed Chair Powell and Treasury Secretary Yellen this time on Wednesday they'll be before the House panel. Coming into Thursday we look for initial jobless claims 199 was the last print don't have any don't have any estimates for this one initial claims are at multi decade lows though and then wrapping all up on Friday we have the all-important November non-farm payrolls last out 531 K looking for a market median estimate here is 500 K but risks are tilted to the upside momentum in employment growth is expected to persist at this stage we'll also get the employment rate last out 4.6 percent market median 4.5 percent edging the unemployment rate just that bit lower we'll get November hourly average earnings last out 0.4 percent looking for the same again really 0.4 wage growth to remain steady given the labor market we will also get November ISM non-manufacturing print on Friday last out 66.7 looking for a 65 here as the Delta headwinds likely to persist we also get October factory orders last out 0.2 percent looking for a 0.5 percent print this month as expected to advance further given transport and source is a likely source of volatility there we will also get October durable goods last out 0.5 percent no market median the final release X transport orders point to a solid fourth quarter of investment and wrapping up Friday we will hear from a Fed member Bullard who's speaking at a Missouri bankers association so from a technical perspective the dollar index traded up into the to test the offers just below the 97 handle saw some supply come in late Friday now looking for a three-way corrected move to complete into testing the 9450 from there anticipating a bounce really at this stage only would get materially bearish the dollar if we take out the ascending trend line support coming in at around 9350 and that would suggest that this current corrective phase is complete and the downtrend is resuming but for now we stay focused on this 9450 test and watching how price responds there heading into the eurozone let's run through where we're at in terms of data on Monday we get November consumer confidence last time minus 6.8 persistent inflationary pressures and Delta resurgence are likely to keep the consumer constrained we also get November economic confidence last out 118.6 looking for a 117.8 print via the market median estimate this will present clear headwinds to confidence in terms of this resurgence that we've seen in coronavirus concerns over the last few days on Tuesday we'll get November CPI percentage year over year 4.1% last out looking for an improvement here 4.3% inflationary pressures expected to persist really into 2022 now on Wednesday we will get November market manufacturing PMIs last out 58.6 looking for a similar print this month for the final release and then heading into Thursday we get the unemployment rate for the eurozone last time 7.4% looking for something similar here the fall in unemployment expected to become a little bit more gradual now and then wrapping up on Friday we get November market services PMI last out 56.6 looking for a similar print this month final release for the month obviously and then we get October retail sales last print was minus 0.3% we're looking for a plus 0.3% versus the market median here set to lift as demand even out really between goods and services similar dynamic to what we've seen developing the US from a technical perspective the euro dollar traded into that 112 support zone now looking for a three-way corrective move to try and get us back up into this this 115 former resistance sorry former support to now act as resistance really at this stage only a loss of of last week's lows at the 111.80 would would set up a bearish decline to the downside to test that 110 weekly trend line that I referenced in the weekly live trade analysis session last Thursday so for now we're looking for further upside and see if we can grind it out to get a test of that 115 area in Japan pretty light in terms of data next week what have we got we've got on Wednesday November Nikai manufacturing PMI last out 54.2 and we're likely to see a similar print as the final release for the month and then really it's it's just on Friday we also get the November Nikai Japan PMI services 52.1 expected and that again is the final release for the month dolly yen took a took a beating on Friday along with the risk aversion that we saw I'm now looking for a three-way corrective move anticipating to find resistance back into that 114.50 area and we're going to look for a test of the major ascending trend line support back into 111.50 is the setup as we head into next week in terms of the dollar yen sterling let's see where we're up to there in terms of data releases on Monday we get October net mortgage lending expect last time was 9.5 billion with the conclusion of the stamp duty break it's likely to partially offset the gains that we saw in September so looking for a slightly softer print there and then we head into Wednesday in the UK we get November market manufacturing PMI's last print 58.2 expecting something similar it's the final release for the month and then rounding it out on Friday in the UK we get November market services PMI 58.6 again expecting something similar final print for the month in terms of the price action with sterling we have tested into this projected ascending sorry descending trend line support and just above the s3 there and we're finding we're finding some demand come into the market I'm looking for a move back into now test 135 as as resistance from the current levels at this stage a closing breach below last week's low would would set up a deeper corrective move and we could certainly think about 131 to the downside and then into the yearly pivot at 12918 for now we're watching to see if we can get a confirmation of this reversal attempt to get us back up into that 135 zone and last but not least down under in Australia on Monday we get third quarter business inventories last time 0.2 looking for a flat reading really this month inventory rundown is probably associated with the Delta lockdowns that have been witnessed and then coming to Tuesday we get the Q3 current account balance last out 20.5 billion looking for 29.3 billion up on larger trade surplus and higher export prices are anticipated to boost that print we get Q3 net exports last time minus one looking for a plus one this time export volumes should have rebounded off a week base and import volumes of debt due to delta concerns we also have rba deputy governor guided bells speaking at panel symposium regarding indigenous economics then we're heading to Wednesday we get Q3 GDP in Australia looking at last time we saw a 0.7 percent print we're actually looking for a decrease here to minus 2.5 percent on the media market estimate again Delta lockdowns have likely impacted the GDP print but disruptions less than anticipated I think in terms of the Australian economy then we're heading to Thursday we have October housing finance last time out minus 0.14 1.4 percent looking for a positive 2 percent print this time as reopening saw a lift in turnover in October we will also get trade balance data for Australia last out 12.2 billion a little bit of a decline here probably down to 10.8 billionish imports have rebounded and export earning pullbacks are likely to continue and then that wraps out the Australian economic data for next week so let's take a look at it from a technical perspective we as anticipated in some of the uh daily technical updates that I provide for the Aussie dollar through the tick mill trading view account took out the trend line extended lower we're now testing this support zone 71 look for a bit potential for a bit of back and fill here but ultimately now I'm looking for a breakdown and we we test the yearly pivot here at 69 84 and then trend line projected descending trend line support coming in at 69 20 before we see a potential for more meaningful bounce so any pullbacks here and certainly into the uh ascending trend line support now to act as resistance in the 72 70 will be premium shorting opportunities but I anticipate that any back and fill is likely to uh extend lower now at this stage in terms of the Aussie dollar and that concludes the weekly market outlook for week commencing the 29th of November as always traders plan the trade trade the plan most importantly manage your risk until next time thanks very much