 Hi, my name is Leon Roe currency trader and trading coach at trading 180.com and welcome to this week's supply and demand Forex and gold fundamental and technical analysis if you are new a warm welcome to you And if you're returning an equally warm welcome to you too And don't forget to like subscribe and share if you find my videos useful every single week Liking is just a free way to support the channel and it helps the youtube algorithm and gets the Content seen by more and more people. So just there's a cost to anything just like and subscribe to the channel and you know keep up to date with the content the quality content and Just a quick one our trade process at trading 180 combines fundamental and technical analysis to really decide the best trade so Let's get into the The week ahead from a from a news trading perspective and in the week ahead. We've got First-quarter earnings when it comes to the stock market But elsewhere what we're looking for is flash PMI surveys for the US UK Eurozone in Japan and Australia We'll be keenly watched. That's our producer of manufacturers index While central banks in the euro area that's good for basically, yes, that's that's a Measure of what contributes to GDP. So we're always looking at growth and so and so it says While central banks in the euro area China Indonesia Canada and Russia will be deciding on monetary policy so we're looking at the euro area and Canada are the key data to follow include US Existing and new home sales UK inflation data and unemployment rate eurozone consumer confidence Japan trade balance and inflation and Australia retail sales really There's lots of things to kind of focus on when it comes to news and many traders kind of trade the news as far as you know Good news press buy Bad news press sell and that's not really how it works really you have to look at the bigger picture or the way that I do Anyways, I look at the bigger picture. I'm looking at growth So for example GDP monetary policy so inflation and interest rates and based on the macro data We're looking for divergences and by divergences I'm looking to trade and buy a currency that is growing And obviously a hiking interest rates and that is generally positive for a currency And then I'm looking for a sell on a currency that is really kind of lagging behind that that currency So it's about buying strong selling weak because that is really what Why why prices will trend or potentially prices will end up in a range if you're trading too strong or too weak currencies? so Some interesting news to watch out for especially from a monetary policy Perspective, so let's see what happens this week getting into the fundamentals and technicals and let's look at the Dow Jones Dollar index or the DXY I should say and This week has been a bit of a strange one the dollar index is a measure of dollar strength Overall against a basket of currencies and the reason why I say it's been a bit of a strange one for the dollar because we've had some really positive news surrounding the dollar but Unfortunately, if you've been going dollar long over the past week or so the dollar has been selling off and You know, we really had more inflation. We had record inflation matter of fact So inflation rose more than expected in March and is likely to push up to 4% as price levels in a vibrant stimulus fueled economy contrast starchy to those during the lockdown 12 months ago and Why that's important is because the closer that the The central banks reach their target as far as their 2% target the more likely they are to hike interest rates Of course, we have to take into account GDP. You don't want to choke off the economy You don't want to start raising rates and making borrowing more expensive before you've got the economy going so it's important that we look at the economy and and say we but central banks look at the economy and balance rate hikes Well potential rate hikes with a growing economy But all markers are really going in the right direction for the dollar at the moment But again, as I was saying this week The dollar has fallen and had a lot of analysts kind of scratching their heads I'm of the belief that it's just a bit more accumulation by the banks Nothing to be really concerned about nothing I wouldn't necessarily get sure and this is not financial advice But I'm not getting short on the dollar just because it's gone down for you know the week It just means that we can kind of buy or I can buy the dollar for cheaper, right? If it's a bargain, which I think it is but here's a Some analysis and it was talking about here's why US market rates are falling and it says a US US economy littered with super buoyant readings would typically place upward pressure on market rates So that is clearly not is what happening is what is happening right now and the question is why so it goes into a Bit of detail talks about some bond rates real yields and real yields are just bond rates minus Inflation and that is what is called negative negative real yields But the bond market As long as that tends to yields tend to pick up But they didn't really do it this in the past week But when once they do that should be supportive for the dollar so going back to the the Charts prices have come down actually into a really nice zone when you get price action like this that really doesn't kind of pull back Eventually you do get a pullback right so in the same vein where you had this massive move I say massive but big move to the upside you get pullbacks because of the market moves in waves Right you get a move up and you get pulled back get a move up and you get a deeper pullback, right? So come down into a decent area of demand and if you want to get long on the dollar You wouldn't get long on a dollar index you would look for long trades And this is kind of confluence on other dollar crosses like the dollar yen dollar Swiss for example So now we're in a nice demand zone on the dollar index if you're in any kind of demand zones on the Dollar Swiss and dollar yen dollar cat etc. Look for you know positive or bullish price action As confluence or for confluence on this for only dollar index, right? If you still believe that the dollar and you want to get short on the dollar Basically what you're looking for is a pullback into an area of supply and then looking for a short trade But I do think the dollar is It's basically gone in a bit of a liquidity hunt and liquidity hunts can last for you know Anywhere from you know a couple of hours to even a couple of weeks because the the financial institutions have to accumulate and When they're accumulating nobody knows really how much they're accumulating and So as far as when the prices go to the downsides They have to be buyers because they want to buy the dollar for cheap if they believe that prices should be up here Which they do and we'll go over you know at least one of the One of the forecasts from from Citibank and they kind of forecast a strong dollar I think dollar to be at least about 94 within the next Few months or so. So this is just a buying opportunity for the long term So let's see what happens with the overall dollar strength again This is not financial advice and if you do want to take advantage of some dollars weakness Potentially if there is going to be any then looking for confluence at that supply zone moving on to the Dollar yen and the dollar yen again has come down into a nice zone matter of fact Again a nice demand zone So this is decent for a potential buy if we can get some dollar strength come back into the market in a risk on environment which is basically means that Investors are looking for a yield. Everything is okay in the world or at least locally then the dollar should really strengthen against the Japanese yen at some point as the yen is is minus 0.1 on their interest rates and The dollar is Positive that's minus 0.1 and the dollar is 0.25. So overall what you would want to do is look for You know to put to buy the dollar right you're borrowing the yen and putting your money into the dollar And of course, we're gonna have pullbacks, right? You have to have pullbacks the market can't go up every single week Doesn't make any sense, you know, you get profit taking etc. And then you get Just a reload of value and this is what demand and supply zones are just Value then we go down into a lower time frame for example and then look for You know entries on a lower time frame for example the hourly Two-hourly four-hourly etc. So that's the way that we We look to trade these levels So if you do want to get bullish on your bullish on the dollar against Japanese yen Then this is actually a really nice area to look for some long trades If you're looking for short trades and a risk-off environment meaning there's some fear and uncertainty Then you're really looking at buying the Japanese yen and that would actually be quite a decent trade to the short side. So look for Look for risk sentiment to To for some sort of confluence and risk-off sentiment being you know a really major spike in for example Coronavirus right if the vaccines aren't working and his risk off going on and more lockdowns then You know we should the Japanese yen should want to strengthen. So let's see what happens at this point Interesting demand zone at the moment and I do think the dollar should want to to strengthen from here But again, not financial advice and of course Please do your own research So moving on to the dollar Swiss the dollar Swiss has come down to a really nice area matter of fact Really nice area. I'm actually long on the on the dollar Swiss Now I was talking to some of the guys in the group and actually created a Video for the private members in the discord area in discord group And it was yesterday and we were talking about the euro dollar and dollar Swiss in-depth fundamental and technical Analysis where I go over some setups on here. So this is a nice for those of you that are in the group This is a nice CPR zone. You can watch the in-depth one on here On on the on the actual discord group in a link would be in our Channels or private channels, but this is a really nice area around here for a potential By I think if not, I think pretty much this zone is going to be a decent buy as well And with the Swiss national bank Saying that it will continue Currency intervention after US decisions. So Switzerland's central bank said it will continue with his policy of foreign exchange Intervention while seeking dialogue with the US after Biden administration dropped the country from its list of currency manipulators and really Currency intervention is actually designed to weaken the currency in a trade war because nobody wants an expensive currency When you're trying to get out of a recession. So with the With the Swiss Frank actually it's desired for the Swiss Frank and the Swiss national bank first prices to go higher so if they're continuing to intervene then That should be supportive of our dollar Of our dollars Swiss Frank trade, right now nobody knows whether it's gonna, you know the exact turning point But eventually we should if it doesn't turn around now the prices, you know come down a bit lower It just means that it's a bit more of a bargain to get long. That's just my opinion from a sell trade perspective I think I'm gonna have to kind of delete that demand zone a little bit and Looking for a sell trade. You've got some supply around there Supply zone so you not the strongest supply zone in the world But you want to wait for price to maybe pull back and then look for a bit of a short trade in there But for me my bias is to the long side lots of upside potential my risk reward when you look at I guess one second when you look at the Upside potential if this is an expensive area And this is clearly expensive Because if it wasn't then prices would have went higher and if this is a bargain there if I'm right about this trade my upside potential This is my pretty much my risk. Yeah, look at my reward really nice risk reward potential so Don't mind that at all and let's look to see if prices will reverse this week or if the dollar will continue to set off Who knows but Eventually the dollar will pull back It's just a matter of trying to catch when the market agrees with that, you know certain prices are a bargain So so yeah, that's pretty much it for the dollar Swiss dollar CAD Two pretty strong currencies that the CAD has been the stronger out of two recently You can see pretty much this downtrend made a major downtrend, especially since the beginning of the year. So again more Probably sells but when it comes to this currency pair I do like this as a buy But I'm really not interested in this pair because you have to kind of competing currencies to strong currencies And really what you're looking for is divergence You're looking for a strong currency versus a weaker currency. And so that's the easier trade Yes, prices may go to the downside and this may even this trade may even work out but it's about currency selection and Really having the fundamentals, you know on your side and increasing the probabilities of a successful trade technical analysis alone for me isn't sufficient so But if you do want to trade this currency pair and you do like this zone Then that's really nice from a sell trade perspective. I think this zone has been touched several times So I'm not really interested in that Probably a higher level and even that isn't the greatest zone in the world. I probably say anywhere around this 128 Area surprises really we have to kind of pull back to this zone And I'd have to be really bullish on the US dollar for me to get a second on the Canadian dollar for me to Get short, but I don't think I'm really interested in this currency pair at the moment New Zealand dollar US dollar again with some dollar weakness US dollar weakness. What you've seen really is British New Zealand dollar again I think New Zealand dollar is a buy just not against the US dollar So again, you've got two strong currencies a bit of a difficult trade for me fundamentally So I'm not really interested in this currency pair But if you are then the pullback into that demand zone is actually quite nice or Potential sell in this area right here and looking for sell trades, but I'm positive New Zealand dollars, but just not against the US dollar. It'd be something like the I wash you I'm in this I'm New Zealand Swiss trade to the upside which has done quite well for me this week so And I'm still swing trading that so that's where we're looking for again New Zealand strong Swiss Frank sell That's How we look for that's how we really kind of trade fundamentals and look for where the Bargains are on a price chart. So let's see what happens, but on this currency pair not too keen Looking at the pound dollar and the pound dollar again. We've got really kind of to compete in currencies that the pound Did have some decent news this week when it came to GDP UK GDP three takeaways from February's numbers the UK economy remained in the doldrums in February though clearly this won't last for long in the Market is more forward-thinking We expect to near 5% increase in the second quarter GDP assuming the reopening continues to go to plan So in the UK we have reopened unlike in Europe where you have You know and other parts where you've got, you know continued lockdowns Meanwhile the trade situation improved after January's brexit issues though It's not going it's going to take sorry some time before the economy has finally Adapted to the recent changes. So, you know bit bit bit bullish on the on the on the pound But again, do you want to trade it against the dollar? This is this is the current thing, right? So for me, I'm not really too keen on this currency pair either But if you are I would probably say the best area to look for some sort of Sell trade in the in the medium term if prices can come out There's one for one area that for me is a really nice own nice fresh area of supply if you're looking for buy trade I'd probably say prices to come down beyond that area of Demand as it's been kind of used twice. So any anything around the one three six for a potential buy in this area, of course, you've got some Confluence of support and resistance within that demand zone or Support in that in that demand zone. So that's something that you probably want to potentially Look towards if you are looking to buy the British pound against the US dollar Moving on to the euro dollar and the euro dollar again this week a bit bit of a if you were buying the dollar Probably been a bit of a straight and weak. So we did get some really positive news But prices have gone to the upside so I think again, this is more of a liquidity Situation where if you don't have enough liquidity to the downside then the market will search for the liquidity to the upside And what I mean by that is if there's a lot of traders going short at Areas of supply and you don't have enough buying to facilitate the amount of selling you want to do Then there is going to be you know The prices have to look for the liquidity right and if you go short here Then your stop loss is what buy order above the market because you're forced to buy at a higher price Which means that you lose so where's all the liquidity if there's not enough to the downside If everyone's trying to get short and it's not enough to the downside then it's going to look for the liquidity to the upside So right now is a decent area to look for potential short trades if you are looking for a Long on the on the US dollar looking to buy the US dollar I think now's a nice area and if that area doesn't work out Then I think that zone there the 12049 will be another area to look for any kind of a short trades Overall, I think the the ECB it was quite it was quite quite quiet when it came to Any kind of European news and it was of some news on Bloomberg It says ECB seen slowing bond buying in July as vaccinations do pick up So policy makers made to discuss monetary stimulus next week, but there was nothing really major Europe Europe is still behind. I don't think they're even thinking about hiking rates or anything like that Like the Federal Reserve is so any kind of short-term Euro strength I think is is actually that it's going to be short term And I think eventually we should want to roll over to some degrees to the point where we can make a little bit of money on this currency or I can anyway on this currency pair and From a from a longer-term perspective and I guess a bank Financial institution Forecast city bank were kind of forecasting That they are bearish on the euro, right? So at one the one twenty one one area So we're pretty much in that zone right now So one twenty one one which is just above that zone there, of course, nothing is is is perfect You've got lots of traders who'd be looking at this so one point one two area As as an area to potentially get short So you may see if prices don't reverse now You may see prices actually come up a bit more into this zone and then look for potential You know short trade for and then look at your risk reward, right? You've got nice risk there and then if you're right about this trade nice and the targets for the For that would be at the one sixteen so target levels That would be nice. So again the six to twelve month forecast one sixteen one zero to three month forecast is one 18 So if you're at you know, we're at one twenty you've got at least two hundred pips to the to the downside for potential and Yeah, interesting one of the things that we do in the group is really kind of look for Bank confluence with our fundamental analysis. So The euro outlook and they said that they are reluctantly they are reluctant to decidedly shift their bias on the euro dollar downside Over the medium term So firstly the lackluster vaccine deployment in Europe along with the third wave of COVID cases inferred at lockdowns and Restrictions will remain in place until at least the end of the second quarter So pretty much again, you've got a strong currency in in well positive data out of the US and still continued Potential negative data out of Europe. So we should see prices want to roll over at some point and also as well The fact that prices haven't pulled back for a good few weeks to any degree There there has to be a pullback at some point Yeah, so let's see if the pullback is enough right now or it it starts this week for us to potentially make some Little bit of profit on that moving on to the euro yen euro yen Again really gone sideways this week No, and for the past few weeks come up to a nice supply zone, but again, you've got two currencies I think are pretty weak the euro and the yen So again when you get too strong to strong or too weak currencies This is what tends to happen with price action It's difficult to kind of tell whether you know the prices will trend So we've seen a ranging market if you do want to get short right now It's okay I would say there's your opportunity if you want to get long then you're looking at this one two nine point three five area for any kind of Long trades, but not a currency pair. I'd be interested in trading Ozzy dollar Ozzy dollar The Australian dollar is probably one of the stronger currencies if Yeah, sorry One of the stronger currencies there are calls for actually an 80 cent Australian dollar US dollar exchange rates So again any kind of pullbacks that would be actually quite nice for a long trade if you're looking at short trades I'd probably say you've got some confluence in these areas here where you've got a bit of support and resistance So right there And then you can change that to actually change that to gold it's a bit of resistance within that Supply zone. So that's probably where if I was looking at short trades That'd be where I'd be looking for the short trade the first short trade in that area that 0.78 put about the brown number and up to the 0.78 to Up to the top and off number Again, not really a currency pair I'm really interested in because again, you've got to compete in currencies to strong currencies even though your Australian dollars probably gonna do a bit better than the dollar Moving on to the Australian dollar Japanese yen and again from a risk off Sorry a risk on perspective. We did get a bit of a pullback this week in a nice opportunity to get long Let's see how far this can go Didn't get an inch on this, but if prices do come back a bit further. That's where I want to be a buyer I like that area This 82 50 to 82 round number for a buy, but let's see Buying right now doesn't really make any sense because you're buying in a more of an expensive area, but let's see But again, if you do want to get short on the Aussie yen I think this zone here this 85 round number and above is really nice for a short trade But just make sure that risk sentiment is off. You know before looking to get short so that adds confidence to your short trade and Finally looking at gold and gold has been on a bit of a run this week over the past few weeks Again some dollar weakness This week from a price perspective has the effect of a dollar bit of a dollar run so that becomes now demand But I'm over I'm still a bit bullish on the dollar So for me, this would be it if I look into short gold That'd be a really nice area to look for any kind of short trades if the dollar can reverse its its its weaker Well Recent weaker price action And then if you do want to be a buyer of gold, then you're looking for that area being a nice area of demand If not, then move down into that zone there now I'm not really too keen on this second touches of a level of fine The first touch of a demand zone is always the best area that is, you know nice fresh area of demand So that was a really nice trade he managed to get involved in that a few weeks ago But I do think that this should want to possibly sell off. But again, it depends on Bond yields risk sentiment and also, you know, what happens with the dollar But with the positive dollar news who knows it could happen this week could happen over the next week But fundamentally I'm personally looking to buy the dollar until something changes Anyways guys, that's pretty much it for this week Hope you enjoyed it if you are looking to join the private discord room In fact, I've changed the enrollment date. It's not going to be on Sunday the 18th. It'll be Monday the 19th yeah Monday the 19th It's when I'm going to be opening enrollment apologies for the delays I know a lot of you are looking quite eager and anticipating the opening But it'll be Monday the 19th Before you get the opportunity and it will be for a limited time It would run until as far as the opening the enrollment will be open until the end of April And then I'm going to close it again for the foreseeable Futures to take the opportunity to work with me if you want to understand not only supply and demand strategies But really have to trade and apply fundamental analysis with your trading and Guys take care and if you are looking to join I look forward to working with you And I'll speak to you soon until the next video. Have a great trading week and take care