 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network We get to begin or close out week number 11 with a banger Monday They football here as a Philadelphia Eagles take on the Kansas City Chiefs There is no better way to possibly wrap up week number 11 Hopefully again a lot better than started with the brown or with the Bengals and the Ravens were to break down Eagles at Chiefs may prop betting perspective talking to Ryan Williams getting his read on the spread the total and so much more Over at Fandall sportsbook to get you ready for it should be a delightful night of football This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and Fandall research My name is Jim Sonnis I am a managing editor of digital media for a Fandall research joined here as mentioned by Ryan Williams check Man on Twitter at Ryan Alexander underscore w Ryan Eagles at Chiefs is coming up for tonight. How you doing today? Might have lost there for a second, but we it looks like we're well Jim. I'm doing Yeah, yeah, no, I'm doing just fine. I'm sorry about that. I don't know what happened, but you had such a great soliloquy I was just letting you letting you go But no, I'm doing great. I can't believe what a fantastic matchup we have On Monday night football for an island game Super Bowl rematch. How can you I mean come on like this is what we all this is what we all want This is what we're all waiting for and I'm happy to be able to chop it up with you Because I think we have some interesting paths to be able to take tonight Yeah, I definitely agree with that and I think it's gonna be a fun game I hope it's anywhere near as fun as Super Bowl was because that game rules So if we can get anywhere near that game, I'll be very happy for tonight We're gonna break down that game starting off with talking about the traditional markets Then transitioning into player props in just one second But first a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast three shows or four shows I should say for this week the typical Monday and Tuesday shows with Ryan here with me and then Wednesday We're gonna have a doctor at fang on to talk both college football and NFL in the exact same show Tom Vecchio will have some player prop thoughts on the Thursday NFL games for Thanksgiving So all right here in the covering the spread podcast feed those shows will all be up on the Fandal TV plus app as well. 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Fandal calm gambling problem Call 1-800 gambler or visit fandal.com slash rg in Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Kentucky, Tennessee and Virginia Call 1-800 next step or text next step to 5334 2 in Arizona 1-88-789-7777 Or visit ccpg.org slash chat Connecticut 1-109 with it in Indiana 1-800-522-4700 if it is a case gambling health comm in Kansas 1-877-770 stop in Louisiana Visit empty gambling health at Oregon, Maryland 1-800 gambler.net in West Virginia 1-800-522-4700 in Wyoming Hope is here for the gambling helpline ma.org or call you 103 to 750 5050 for 24 7 supporter Massachusetts or call 1-877 Open Y or text open Y in New York Let's take a look here at this Fantastic Monday night match up here between the Eagles and the cheese for right now the spread of the cheese minus two and a half total in This game is at 45 and a half Let's start things off by talking about the spread here right because it held pretty steady throughout this week at two and a half I think it got to three for like half an hour or so at one point But went right back to two and a half so any lean for you toward either side with where things stand right now Yeah, the one that's interesting jim is is that over at 45 and a half I think if we were just like looking blind and talking about this game being this week This would be one of the island games that we like there's no way this total comes in at under 48 I would expect it to be a close to you know 50, but you know when you're looking at the way that these you know So the two teams put together right when you're talking about their points per game Like yeah, they're over this total like they hit Right around 51 But when you're looking at the points allowed for these two defenses like that's what screams to This total being at 45 and a half because these defenses like combined Are only allowing under you know just around 35 points. And so you know, I think this is going to be This is going to be the biggest test for the eagles thus far this year I have to come in here. You know, you're facing the chiefs off of a buy andy reed's whole team the chiefs have been reeling All the narratives there What belongs uh at under a three-point favorite, which is something that I usually will smash and so You know from the total standpoint I I have no idea um because I That's what the interesting one is because both of these offenses are explosive And the defenses have been so great that I just don't have a read there Once so ever I could see it going either way But what I do have a read on is is the chiefs and I do think you know as as great Filly has been Here and and they look, you know I'll sound favorite, but we kind of talked about this last week We're kind of just talking about matchups and talking about how tough philly schedule was going to be coming up Like this is one of those first matchups and I think they could uh They could get a reality test here going into arrowhead, which is one of the toughest place to play So I'm going to take the chiefs at the two and a half there And you know see if it comes down to at harrison buck your field goal there late if these two teams are matched up evenly But I honestly jim you can say you can see this game go either way from a points from a point scoring standpoint Yeah, the chiefs minus two and a half is minus one fifteen right now if andal sports books It seems more likely to get to three than to go the other way get back to three Again, I think it was there very for a very short time My model has this is being pretty fair with where it's at right now I've got the cheese favored by 3.4 points So pretty close to where the market has it but leaning towards the same direction as you where if I were forced to pick I would go cheese So personally it's a stay away because I just want to enjoy the game honestly as far as the total goes I think part of the reason why that number is low is is not just the cheese defense playing as well as it has But also some rain in the forecast for tonight I don't care too much about that personally, but there is a bit of wind at nine miles per hour So once you factor in the weather, I've got this total at uh, 46.4. So Even accounting for weather. I'm a hair above the total So slight lean towards the chiefs minus two and a half slight lean towards the over at 45 and a half but honestly I think both are Pretty comfortable stayaways for me just so I could enjoy this game a bit more and instead Dabble in the props markets. Let's talk about that, Ryan And I think the chief side of things here has been tough this entire year because they spread the ball around Nobody's really separated Outside of travis kelsie being travis kelsie taylor swift is in the stands for tonight So bump up kelsie from that perspective, but looking at the chief's props for tonight, ryan any value stand out for you with them Yeah, it's it's it's all about travis kelsie. Uh tonight, right? I mean you got the lady Lady in the stands, you got a home matchup coming back Uh, the the parents are meeting each other. Uh, this just you know, kind of screams, you know, the the kelsie narrative and You know, he had a pretty decent game, uh against this team when they matched up In the super bowl there getting getting those six targets 81 yards and touchdown You know, even the touchdown prop for for kelsie is it's kind of you know It's just one of those things that you look at and you're like, yep, that's reasonable and We're gonna take the 125 there and just let it be what it is But I do think there's merit to getting his receiving prop I think honestly jim like the one that I would look at for from a kelsie standpoint I know we're gonna talk about the other options for the chiefs is the alt receiving line I mean anything over what that number is from 76 and a half like we know There's no question of where the ball is going to go to Uh tonight and you're looking at the eagles team that is a tough team to run on And you know, pacheco has been getting more opportunities, but you know, this is also an andy reed Scripted team where he's going to take advantage of matchup. So we're looking at kelsie, you know 80 yards is minus 102 90 yards plus 144 100 yards like almost two to one like yeah Give me that like i'm probably gonna be on a ton of kelsie alternate lines of you know 100 yards Like does kelsie get multiple scores and we could take advantage of that Not to say, you know, I know I know the the parlays are always fun and I'll probably be taking them But I think taking those two as one off bets or even combining them Makes a ton of sense because This has just been the catalyst of the offense when Kelsey goes when Kelsey does well the rest of the offense does well because my homes can play a little bit More free and be a little bit more loose. So love the kelsie props I'll probably lean into some of the pacheco props from a rushing receiving standpoint When you're looking at, you know, the matchup, I know he's 45 48 and a half. Excuse me from a rushing prop But when you're adding in that receiving to at 68 and a half like I think he could get loose On a couple there. I think they do want to get them involved and we saw him, you know Really, you know, take advantage of this matchup again when they met in the super bowl, which is, you know, really Really appealing and I could see, you know, andy reed coming at it from the approach of Just give pacheco touches so that we don't have jail and hurts on the field because, you know We'll talk about that side of things and how explosive they can be But uh, yeah, I think this is probably the two paths Those are the two best pieces on the chiefs and those are the two pieces I want to lean into You know, it's it's fun to take some dart throws on some of these other guys But they just haven't been consistent enough for me to do so Yeah, and I think that that is a logical way to approach things coming back to Kelsey You mentioned how the eagles are great against the rush and that is that is reflected in the stats Where teams have thrown against them on early downs at a 68 clip this year Which is by far the highest rating football So it's in part because the eagles are a good team and they get teams down and that may not be the case here tonight but like They've got a good rush defense now jail and carter there So teams have been inclined to throw a ball against them So you're talking about the kelsey ultimate numbers If they're going to throw more than usual and they are already a pretty high Pass rate team And we know where the ball is going. I think that's a good formula to getting to some alternate numbers for travis kelsey so I think of the ones if I were looking to bet some overs tonight It would lean towards travis kelsey. You mentioned the 100 plus receiving yards alt market plus 198 for kelsey I find that pretty attractive. I probably like that a bit more than the touchdown odds personally a minus 125 Um, you mentioned potentially scoring twice. So, you know, you can check out that too I don't think that's out of bounds for a game like this So I think kelsey's the rod I'd be leading but pacheco's rushing plus receiving number is very reasonable 68 and a half rushing plus receiving yards I think that makes a lot of sense personally. I want to check out where he's been recently now The last game before their buy week was the germany game and clibert's e-layer did not play in that game. So Make sure you take that into account when looking at pacheco's stuff but 66 yards there 37 the game before that so The yardage hasn't really been there despite the fact the snap rate has But maybe they like you said kind of lean more on him given this is a pretty high impact game So I could see pacheco potentially be intriguing But like I think ryan it really does come down to kelsey where We're in alignment there where he's kind of like the main guy we turned to for tonight Absolutely absolutely and those two touchdowns for kelsey the score is five to one And you know, you know, they already They're they're already appealing to the masses there but that's getting some of these numbers Because those are the those are the places where we want to be but yeah, I think it's it's really, you know, leaning into For me tonight, it's leaning into the options and the paths that I know are The the right paths or that that on paper are seeming like the right paths and not getting Outside of the box and I think we can do the exact same thing We're talking about the eagles problems because there's no dallas goddard for tonight Which does open up a good number of targets in this passing offense. So on the eagle side of things Where are you seeing a value there ryan? Yeah, so on the eagle side of things where I'll start in the reverse or not in the reverse I'll start with the pass cutters as well too, but we usually do talk about the running backs first But yeah, I think you know, we got a look we got a look at the pass catcher We got a look at a j brown a j brown's been an absolute stud I forget what week it was this week with early on three or four You know the guy's talking about getting the ball more and we're feeding into the narrative He's you know jaylin hurts his baby's goddad or whatever the case may be and so since then he's been absolutely incredible He's been absolutely a stud like 84 and a half on that number feels absolutely right He has just been he's just been so good And you're talking about dallas goddard, you know vacating targets and production there and it's like Yeah, let me get on that now. The one that's interesting to me is devonta smith Like devonta smith is just so good and I know he's having a down year But like 60 and a half in this match up here and I get listen. It's tough, right? It's a tough match up for uh for the Eagles passing game this chief's defense like they are not the same defense that the eagles faced in the super bowl This dboa that third dboa from a passing match up like they've been absolutely incredible against outside receivers But I still expect the eagles to be aggressive in the trying to get things going and we know devonta smith has that deep threat You know playmaking ability Outside of that we're talking about alameda zakias and julio jones So like I really do expect the focus to be on both of these two guys and just from a production standpoint like And i'm just trying to move the ball. I think that uh, I think devonta smith's number is really really nice And I would love to get that at 60 and a half Wherever I can now from a reception standpoint like yeah, I might probably you know Even if I'm not taking the 84 and a half from aj brown I might look at you know his reception line And see what you know what we're going after there for him to hit on that number um Because it just it just feels like you know a great match up there at six and a half like minus 102 He he could he could get that at half right like he it's just the way that this is going So I absolutely love it now when we're talking about de andre swift like This is the one I got to lean into you know, and this is what's going to be a little bit scary for me because You know, it's de andre swift and I've had a tough time with him You know since he was at the lions and really just have loved talent But I've never gotten them right, but this is one where I could really see them leaning on Okay, so you know even from a past matchup standpoint, but like if this is a neutral game script Let's get de andre swift involved and let's really have him You know drive this home for us and especially like if they can get out to an early lead on the road There's no No, you know if you're if you're taking the eagle side and you're thinking that they're going to come out here And punch the chiefs in the mouth early then like yeah We're leaning into de andre swift in the same manner I talked about pecheco like keep my homes off of the field and uh, this is you know This is not myo sanders and jaylon hurts was able to get some yards against this team You know let last year and I think that production kind of speaks to what we can expect from de andre swift So, you know the receiving line I do think is interesting from the standpoint of taking the chiefs two and a half because We could get some some dump offs there for him And if he's not able to find the receivers deep just give it to de andre swift there at 17 half But I do really like Getting on his rushing prop getting on the receiving a rushing prop And really thinking that the eagles can lean into de andre swift tonight To help bring it home for them and swiss roll has been really good recently over the past So I think the most relevant sample for him has since gainwell came back and in that time He's had multiple targets in every single game. He had six in one game. He attended another So getting him a lot of work in the passing game. That's led to good yardage numbers I don't really want to check out swift touchdown numbers because he doesn't get a lot of work inside the red zone He had it's been better the past couple of games a lot better actually, but Still not a perfect roll there, but from a passing game perspective He does make a lot of sense so options for taking advantage of that rushing plus receiving 77 half the number on that one minus 114 on the over the reception prop or receiving prop that ryan mentioned Over 17 half is minus 114 and then total receptions for swift over two and a half is minus 160 alternate receptions For de andre swift not posted but check back on that one later because potentially could get that As a route to get exposure to swift I want to go back to divante smith though ryan because I think he's the biggest benefactor of The dallas goddard injury last year and the games goddard missed. I believe smith's target share is around 25 So he got a really big boost when goddard was out last year and they've had to buy and smith is I think been banged up Pretty much this entire year playing with like this like cyborg kind of thing on his elbow Which doesn't look you know aesthetically super pleasing Probably doesn't mean he's super healthy either So 16 half is receiving yard number for for divante smith I find that very interesting given that we do lean toward the chiefs in this game And the eagles are two and a half point dogs might not be able to be as run heavy as usual Also, do want to check the touchdown score market for divante smith. Yeah, swift is plus 155 I think that's a bit light. I'd like that. Right. I would probably want that a bit longer to go in there But divante smith plus 230 for a touchdown. I like that quite a bit as well I think I might like that more than the yardage number. So I'm probably going to try to exploit the goddard adson I think that divante smith anytime touchdown plus 230 Might be the route I would go for that one personally I love that. I actually love that a lot and I yeah for me I think it's just a matter of um The the types of targets that divante smith sees really likes me You know makes that makes that number very palatable at at 60 and a half and it does just become a numbers game or I guess What what would I say there a usage game? If you will when the eagles get into the red zone because I really just think that you know We we got to worry about jalen hurts taking the ball and them giving it to swift and a j brown being there And so and I do think that this defense for the chiefs Does kind of play the past pretty well when they get into the red zone. So I do think that's interesting Well, we're in the anytime touchdown prop market Let's let's go down to the guy who backs up the andre swift there and kind of game Well, and this guy gets a couple red zone opportunities every week and so getting him at plus 600 there Like that's kind of my favorite long shot bet of the night because this is the one where like Everybody has, you know jalen hurts and they have the andre swift, you know tickets and their fantasy line-ups, etc And you're just wondering wait. Who's that coming in? To score. Oh, yeah, that's kenneth gainwell who just you know finds his way to get get work every every so often This speaks to that being an island game. So let's go kineji Get that six to one going for us and we can feel good about that Yeah, if I'm going to be turned off by swift in his touchdown numbers because of kenneth gainwell I should probably consider kenneth gainwell himself Uh at six to one for anytime touchdown for him other guy who like does con interest me here is noa gray Noa gray never leaves a field. He is plus 750 for the the anytime touchdown market at fangirl sportsbook three targets in Most games so far this year as the artist members have actually been pretty good as well But like again, he just he plays Almost not not every snap, but he's out there pretty consistently only one touchdown So far this year, but it's access to the cheese It is a guy with a pretty big body can get in towards the goal line 88 snap rate in that game. I guess I was week one where kelsey is out But uh, he's still in a good snap rate even when kelsey has been healthy So far this year. So gray at plus 750 if i'm looking for like a longer shot fun one I think that's kind of enticing personally. So I might check that one out I think the gainwell one is better, right? I like that one a bit more at six to one Any other props you like across monday night ryan? I think those are I think those are the main ones for for me that I like I mean, you know, just really kind of funny when you look at the past catchers for the chiefs and their anytime touchdown props all being in the in the same range there I think I think that's good. I I will probably dabble And look at and look at a lot of the alt lines. I think they can be fun You know of just like jaylin hurts like him scoring one touchdown is, you know, not that palatable at Just 120, but if you look at, you know, his two touchdown prop, you know, that hops all the way up there Uh, if you if you scroll down real quickly jim, okay, this is how we always do it You ask me if I like anything. I'm like, oh, I'm not really into it. I'm like, oh, well wait Um plus 750 like just to go from one to two Super interesting there um for me as we you know We saw he was not allergic to uh not allergic to the end zone when they played in that Super Bowl matchup So if he ends up having to do everything, I just think the odds there are just like, you know I would expect that to be closer to five to one than seven and a half. So, um, that's an interesting one, you know, cheap Kansas City prop on the other side, you know If we're thinking Patrick Mahomes if he you know wants to work his magic in there I was looking at the three touchdown Alt mark for him passing again that passing not Not rushing. I don't even think it probably would be available from a home But if you look at the alt passing touchdowns there, uh for him to throw three touchdowns That's two to one You know if Kelsey gets multiple scores there and they just need to find one It's like you don't have to guess who the guys are catching them You just take the two to one on my homes to throw them in that those feel good Yeah, he is uh minus 200 to throw two plus plus 200 to throw a three plus So big jump there from a home So you get to three plus touchdowns and again if the eagles are going to be as good as they are against the rush this year That could shovel some more work towards the passing game from my homes as well That is all that we have here for today on the covering the spread But ryan will be back with us once again tomorrow We're going to talk about the futures market breakdown key takeaways in this week And then I'll take a look ahead to week 12 spreads and totals that my numbers like over at fan dual sportsbook, but ryan Pleasure to have you on the show here today as always Good luck to you tonight. Enjoy the very fun football game. We'll talk to you once again tomorrow Yes, I hope everybody enjoys the beautiful monday night football game that we have on the match up here This is a marquee game. Uh, so regardless you should be tuned in and uh and getting after it appreciate you jim We'll talk tomorrow. Alrighty fine ryan on twitter at ryan alexander underscore w I am on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s You can also find me on threads at jim dot sonnis and find fan dual research on twitter at fan dual research again Make sure you subscribe to the podcast given the unique schedule for this week just on covering the spread wherever you get your podcast And if you like what you hear leave us a five star rating on apple podcast or spotify I want to thank you all for tuning in enjoy the game for tonight. Hopefully it is a thriller We'll talk to you once again tomorrow. This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast now