 Hi there, I'm Anthony Chung and I'm the head of market analysis here at Amplify Trading. Every weekday morning I'll deliver a fundamental rundown ahead of the European Open. But if you subscribe to the channel, you'll also get content from the rest of the team. So, let's begin. Okay, very good morning. Hope everyone is doing well. It is Thursday the 19th of November. Going to have a quick review of what happened last night at the close of Wall Street. Obviously, we did have a bit of selling pressure come in, particularly on the back of the fact that New York City has said they're going to lock down once again the nation's largest public school system in the city. We've also seen hospitalizations continuing to move up in the majority of US states and subsequently the death toll continues to rise at this point in time requiring further restrictions. So, that was one of the main news stories from late yesterday. We're looking at the charts here this morning, so only centre charts you can see reflected then. I've got the Dow, the Nasdaq and the S&P in the centre charts going left to right. And just having a look at some of these here in a bit more detail and I've kind of annotated them to really go over the movement that's happened in markets over the last week or so. And let me just remove my camera for one moment so you can see the full chart. And this is looking at the S&P 500 and recent price patterns which does give us a few technical levels of interest to be monitoring as we go further forward. Here then the kind of framework provided by the Pfizer peak on the initial news that came out. Then you've got the Moderna pop that came out, which is the weekly high. We've had a retest and fail to break above that prior high and air of resistance that we were seeing. This was in yesterday's session and around that same location of the descending kind of trend line that we've had in play here. Then the New York shutdown on the school system came out late into the close on Wall Street exacerbated by the breakthrough of the kind of weekly range low and that just sawed some increased selling pressure momentum into the closing bell. We have reversed course a little bit but as you can see here we're finding a bit of resistance on the pullback at around a technically relevant level which was the resistance that we were seeing in the middle part of the prior week's price activity around 35, 74 and a quarter. So that for the moment remains an upside obstacle. Any further recovery through that then you've got the pivot level at 80 and then you've got that previous weekly range low that would come in up around here at 85 and three quarters to keep an eye on. Conversely if we move back down on the downside then we'd be looking at that overnight Asia Pacific low which is around 53 and three quarters and then really not anything too much too interesting until we get further down toward the the S1 and then the S2 which then starts to bring in the low end of last week's range. So definitely some key areas there to keep an eye on on the the S&P and also just looking at the down kind of similar in a way but almost even more technically sound in terms of the response on the Pfizer Moderna double top if you want to call it that. I thought it was quite interesting how over the course of the last week and a half or two weeks now almost a price activity when we had that initial kind of much more aggressive spike on that first Pfizer news that was pretty much to the tick in the Dow at the same level and of course at 30,000 if you're looking at around the futures price. Since that point then a couple of nice trendline breaks first on the the upward move and then just capping some of the well on the break here that we had on Tuesday and then capping some of the price recoveries that we've seen and so quite a nice area there yesterday at the high which was coming just ahead of the US entrance respecting the trendline on the daily pivots it's R1 and the prior high and then we just grinded back down toward the lower end of that range which was looking where we were going to close the day out at the bottom of that range but then that NYC headline hit and similarly the Dow just came under some fairly aggressive selling pressure. We have now formed a kind of base though for price movement and that's what I'd be looking at on any retreat further in US equities if we do see that when the cash opens later so the more nearer term range now looking at the price activity as it stands for the moment early in the European Open is kind of defined by around 29,300 and 449 on the upside which was also that low that we had on Tuesday session and we've we've just seen a bit of resistance this morning already so it breaches either way again on the Dow then looking for a push back up to pivot and then probably targeting up at around that level which would bring back in this price activity from the Han the 11th and then respecting of that from the initial weekly range before last night's price movement and then push on the downside probably quite a nice area around that S1 starts to bring in close proximity to the lows that we were seeing probably about 25 points below would be the low on the the pullback that we had in the afternoon on last Friday's session. So yeah I don't really feel too much in a way of a bias either way for these US equity markets so kind of similar drill to what we were looking at yesterday where I prefer kind of just marking out either side and just letting the market kind of flow and just following and trading what you see rather than trying to overthink it because it has been a little bit tricky and we're going to talk about the dollar a little bit in this briefing and that's been a fairly awkward one because this morning we can talk about it now the dollar is firmer it firmed up overnight and it's trading up about two tenths of one percent so seemingly then it's caused or the dollar strength has been a byproduct of a little bit of the kind of apprehensiveness over what's materializing still with covid cases irrespective of the vaccine and therefore a little bit of flight to quality bid perhaps and that has weighed on some of these major currency pairs you can see in the top left here euro dollar and cable are both down cable or if anything underperforming a little bit more trading down about 50 pips here in the futures this morning now therein lies a quite an interesting thing and what I'm going to do is I'm going to run through an update on the covid situation and then that will lead us nicely into the discussion about the dollar and vaccines and there's some interesting articles I want to share with the Amphi live community today and so first off then looking at this situation in america as it stands at the moment this is an update they have like a page on bloomberg which gives you the kind of state-by-state trajectory of different curves of hospitalizations so you can track the numbers here for example so here you can see the actual figure the percentage in terms of occupied beds because things like reaching full capacity causes certain concerns in certain areas and so on but hospitalizations as you can see here due to covid-19 arising in 51 states or territories in the u.s. including 28 reaching their highest number since the pandemic begun and if we switch that over and start looking at the new reported deaths so knock knock cases deaths by day in the united states you can see here I know it's quite small and quite quite faded but this right on the right hand side is the november 18th print and yesterday we had nearly 2 000 deaths so this is what we were talking about week two weeks ago about the fact that the the case a seven-day average now is well in excess of 150 000 that this number inevitably was going to get way above that's kind of a sunbelt outbreak that we saw in the summer the peak of then was substantially lower than the number we printed yesterday and as you can see then that has dragged up then the seven-day average to the highest now since may when we were kind of coming off that initial tri-state outbreak so definitely this is this is this trend will likely continue for some time as we have kind of said over the last week or two our expectation is that this figure in fact does it does top the initial outbreak over 2000 so we are starting to see a bit of an acceleration of this at this point in time overnight you know on a global level we did also have tokyo just getting a few headlines because they're raising their virus alert status to the highest level following record number of new daily cases in the city and also overnight just to be aware of just covering that region Australian employers unexpectedly added tens of thousands of jobs in october the Australian employment number for october came in overnight at 178.8 thousand expectations were for minus 30 000 i'm not sure how analysts could have got that so wildly wrong but as you know supreme number but if you look at the ozzy that hasn't really moved and i think a lot of that is because if you actually scratch beneath the actual numbers and ask yourself why is that number so strong victoria's tough covet restrictions began to be lifted of which that data covers essentially so state workers returned to the labor force so i wouldn't say it's so much of an underlying renewed employment situation rather than people coming back to work which has just inflated that number hence the reason the lack of real follow through so for the ozzy still at the moment i'd say you want to be looking at the dollar not so much the ozzy dynamics but that's the same case really if you're looking at the euro and other dollar-based pairs at this point in time on the covet side for vaccines the latest we've had this morning breaking news coming out that the oxford vaccine so this is AstraZeneca Oxford University the vaccines produce strong immune response among elderly adults citing data published in the full landscape today however as you've probably seen reactions pretty small remember their first efficacy data from phase three trials this isn't what this is that's still to come out in the coming weeks so this is talking about phase two trials so it's much earlier in the pipeline hence the reason there's no real reaction secondly there was a partial publication of this data back in october so that's why even though it's a breaking news and main headline in the media it's not really moving financial markets this morning this does then lead talking of vaccines into this conversation and this was a good article in the ft because a lot of people have been left kind of scratching their heads a little bit and a few things to discuss now overall we were talking a lot about the dolly yesterday you know undoubtedly it's at a very key technical level on the longer time frames over the multi-year perspective and we have seen though a very strong bounce from around those lower levels the dollar recovered as we went through the late us session yesterday and it's gapped up again in terms of in the overnight session however it doesn't detract from the point that the dollar relative to the pandemic is down about 11 percent now a lot of that is coming of course because of an extension of unprecedented and large commitment of monetary policy easing in various different forms and the idea being generally speaking it has been pressuring the dolly even further recently again xing out the last 12 hours of movement is the fact that if covid is getting much worse and activity mobility in the u.s is going to decrease its restrictions kick in then economically the economy is going to deteriorate and the fed are going to have to do more in some shape or form whether verbal or physical so therefore the dollar continues to weaken in this extent the other thing that I thought was quite interesting I was having a discussion with Tim in the amplify live room yesterday and I was looking at generally the eurozone now France reported some 28,383 new cases yesterday so still quite a large number but the weekly pace of infections is continuing to head lower at this point in time hospitalizations and a number of severely ill patients in intensive care units fell for a second day in France and ICU occupation rates are now falling at their most since May of earlier this year so a couple of months ago Italy registered 753 deaths related to covid yesterday that is the biggest daily increase in over seven months however the region around Milan infections are actually slowing if you remember that was the region new cases in on body where the original original ex-China outbreak that happened when the epidemic was first taking hold new cases in Lombardia fell about 10% yesterday versus Tuesday Geneva as well just to name another place begun relaxing is covid restrictions beginning November 21st so two days time following a plateau in cases and this is something which was kind of slowly emerging last week was this idea that Europe is is front-running America because of the fact that they've generally taken a more quicker and pro pro active action in order to offset then the rising case numbers that they've been seeing and so the fact that those were implemented a couple of weeks ago we're now starting to see the effects of that which is a plateauing of case numbers so although deaths are still rising a plateauing is quite a positive thing that the markets will be looking at the ultimately then the deaths hospitalization should follow suit this is quite contradictory to what we're seeing in America at the moment where they are chasing their tail somewhat they're slow to react and therefore the measures that have been taken in NYC last night or in other areas that we've seen since really this week on a state level started to kick in that's not really going to happen in terms of the real success of that or not to to try to mitigate this surge of virus cases we're not going to know that in the next two to three to four weeks so until then numbers are going to continue to go to go up and this just creates quite interesting divergence then if you're looking at the virus being the main catalyst for generally dollar movement is that then do you start to see a divergence between more favorable economic kind of expectations around the eurozone as it gradually reopens against negative us as it goes into lockdown complete opposites of one another and does that then put further downside pressure on the dollar but equally so helps provide some under underpin support for euro appreciation throw in the mix in the coming weeks a brexit deal whether that comes now next week or the end of the year into what would be a very challenging situation in America that might require more monetary easing with that brexit kind of lift if they if we do get an agreement which is the base case scenario is that a trigger point then to break those long standing key levels in the dollar of which if broken we could see a substantial move lower so a lot of this is i'm not saying intraday i mean look remember the golden rule day trading you know you trade what you see and at the moment the dollar's rallying so i wouldn't i wouldn't want to go against that trend for now but ultimately the top level view over the medium term is that i think the dollar's got room to weaken and there's a couple other banks with a few other added points here that i think i just want to cover that add a few more kind of ideas around this this thinking and so one of these is then a bloomberg analyst kind of survey that they've done investors anticipate the dollar index will slip roughly three percent from its current level by the end of the year so don't forget then that's going to put the euro for example up at some pretty interesting levels as we get back up to around that 120 an era of concern central bankers have said before so this could could have interesting repercussions if that were to happen but remember that's a consensus forecast over a number of financial institutions at this point so most the market is expecting the dollar to weaken from this point out and probably accelerated by that technical break that we were looking at now city group have come out and they expect that the u.s federal reserve will continue providing stimulus to the economy and err on the side of caution before considering interest rate increases even as the global economic recovery speeds up that could encourage investors to find a home for their money elsewhere as rising inflation expectations in u.s reduced the dollar's relative attractiveness and investors target faster growing countries that may tighten monetary policy sooner so really we can look at history as a precedent so although the Fed perhaps a slightly different composition to what was steered under Janet Yellen's tenant position as Fed chair but the idea being is that the Fed are going to be highly reluctant to tighten anytime soon and to give any hints that that would be done anytime quickly so therefore those other places in the world might be quicker to respond and therefore you could get more favorite favorable currency exposure which by the net result then could be a weakening factor for the dollar separately buying into u.s markets has been almost unavoidable over the past decade according to analysts at Goldman Sachs as corporate profits boomed and fed raised rates while other central banks stayed closer to zero remember the Fed raised rates almost nine times in the post financial crisis era normalization whereas pretty much everyone else didn't even raise rates at all this has made their currency expensive setting up for large falls ahead according to the co-head of goldman's FX research team goldman's expect the dollar to slide six percent on a trade weighted basis over the next 12 months they've added that vaccine developments are sufficiently positive that most investors should be positioning for dollar weakness and they're looking at that in respect to the fact that if then a vaccine comes forward there's no need for any of this kind of flight to quality premium kind of status that the dollar might hold and therefore consequently should weaken ally to the fact as well that they were talking about in regard to the currency being generally expensive looking at a longer time frame so yeah a couple things definitely to think about there i'll share this article so you can have a read yourself but definitely worth checking out moving on though and getting through the rest of the headlines this came out last night i'm not sure if i shared it on my twitter so you know feel free to follow me i'm generally tweeting throughout the night as well but england will need five days of lockdown for each day relaxed at christmas now the the this is coming from senior government health advisors and they warned last night that england would need five extra days of lockdown measures to stop infections spreading for each day they are relaxed around the christmas period in order to allow people to see their families so applying the kind of math it kind of works out pretty much perfectly given that the end deadline is the second of september for the current state of national lockdown in the uk that if you were to roll over exactly three weeks that would land you pretty much then at christmas eve and then if you had christmas eve christmas day boxing day which is obviously in the uk the main kind of point of christmas where people would probably congregate as a family or friends that would mean we'd need to be locked down between pretty much a rollover from the second of deck out to christmas eve effectively or the eve of christmas eve so just saying that now it probably means that we've got another couple of weeks added to this second of deck deadline again it's not surprising to be honest but one thing it does mean is that obviously this does have repercussions in terms of the economic implications for the uk economy and so that compounded by the fact that as much as most people think there will be a brexit deal until there is one no deal risk is ever president and actually would probably be start to be priced in a little bit more as we get closer towards the end of the year so the two things in combination could be quite interesting at the moment i guess the reprieve for the pound is coming from the weakness and the dollar on the more broader context but something to be mindful of um all right let's have a look at the calendar for today um so in terms of the uk european scheduled events it's very quiet from a data perspective there's nothing really worth me commenting on we get into the afternoon we get the weekly jobless claims fully fed existing home sales um as i've said every day this week normally these data points would be perhaps interesting um the one thing that i think would be quite interesting going forward if i just go into trading economics and quickly bring it up so just bear with me one moment but is the initial jobless claims now i don't think they're particularly important for today but if we were to look at them in the context of how they've performed over the last 12 readings which takes us back to that kind of sunbelt outbreak where they were tracking around a million we've continued to decelerate which is a positive thing however given now the lockdowns that are being implemented and the situation unfolding with covid in the u.s my expectation is that this number will start to go up in the coming weeks and that will likely continue into into the year and the the question of how markets more and the fed in communication might respond is how aggressively does this number start to go up you know it's reaccelerate in that sense uh so yeah as far as the the data is concerned um i'm not you know fully fed again existing home sales they are naturally macro economic wise important but in context i think markets are more concerned about the present and the current and more again high frequency data as to obtain then um the implications of what's happening at the moment overall from a speaker's perspective yeah a couple things you've got feds mester ecbs christine legard and schnabel speaking as well again legard i think this is her third outing of the four trading sessions we've had this week so i'm not anticipating anything really out of her there's no need really to to say anything new on policy but nonetheless when the president speaks it's worth just keeping an ear out when that speech begins and that's it so i'm going to leave it at that let you guys get on with the day the guys will go through in amplifier live to form technical and trade setups to accompany my my kind of fundamental analysis but yeah as i said have a look at those those equity charts there's a couple of quite key levels i think to keep an eye on both on the down and upside not having too much bias at the moment but looking at the general setup of things the dollar strength equities a little bit softer would be indicative then of markets being a little bit apprehensive at this european open and that dollar strength is weighing on the likes of the major currency dollar pairs but also just to finish it is weighing on gold as well and as you can see here gold is having a retest of the low we printed in the late age of pacific session which is quite interesting because if you look at the dollar movement and gold it generally has been inverse rather than gold acting as a safe haven and here you can see this is when gold got absolutely crushed on the back of the initial Pfizer news on dollar strength and the kind of silver bullet that people were initially in a knee jerk reaction looking at that Pfizer news we know that's not the case but here then we're coming back down in close proximity early around 10 bucks of retesting that then low that we saw on the same days on that price action that is also the low that we were printing here that you can see in around mid to late september so key levels here for gold that are inside on the intraday that if broken things could get heavy very quickly if we see a continuation of this dollar bounce that's materialized in the last 12 hours target there would be around 18 20 which is around the top of the price action we were seeing when this area here is when we were seeing the us surge in cases in the likes of texas florida california and that was when we broke at the time that double top that was holding the tri-state outbreak so again you can see how kind of covid related it's all been in terms of this cross acid class mix all right guys go leave it at that let you get on have a good day stay safe and i'll see you tomorrow