 The following is a presentation of TFNN. Trade what you see with Larry Pezzavento. Call now toll free at 1-877-927-6648 or internationally at 727-873-7618. Now, Larry Pezzavento. Okay, I'm looking good, Billy Ray. Feeling good, Lewis Hyde? Boy, my voice is shot, folks. I've posted the chart here. I hope you can see it. It's a high-yield bond, ETF junk bond. Bond, okay? The reason why I'm bringing it to your attention, two reasons. Jim Bartlett only brought this to our attention a few weeks ago. Well, it's actually one week ago today. And we talked about this as a descending triangle, very, very bearish pattern. But we had one of the specialists on Bloomberg today describing why she was the most bullish. I'm not, hey, listen, I'm not trying to badmouth anybody, folks. I just don't see any bullishness on this chart. I'm 100% against what she's looking at, but she could be correct. She was basing it on the value of the high-yield junk bond versus the others. I don't know exactly what that means. But anyway, as I looked at this chart, I said, well, if it can get above 76, yeah, I could see that maybe it'll be a breakout to the upside, but everything is telling me here that it doesn't look that good. If we take a look at this on a daily chart, it may look, even looking at it on the daily, you can see that we have lower tops for quite a while. And bottoms have been basically unchanged. So we are in that real tight triangle, but I certainly don't see anything bullish about this. I'm, believe me, folks, I make enough mistakes in this business that I'm not badmouthing her. I just disagree with what she's looking at. She made a great case for it fundamentally, but frankly, that's what we're taking a look at. So let's look at, get rid of that one and want to talk to the one that is really important because we got the Fed out there today, and that's going to be a big one. So let's look here at what we're doing. As you can see here, we hit our 61% retracement right on the money there at 1958-80. The high was 1959-90, and the gold started to move down a little bit. Now we have our stop at break even now. So for rally $6 when the Fed's out there, that'll be it. We'll just move on to the next one. Okay, now let's take a look at the bonds because this is where the real money is and this is where they're playing the game, okay? I'm hoping that everybody can see this chart. It is a four-hour chart in the bonds. I'm going to check to see that everybody can see it. Nobody's telling me anything. So maybe it is, maybe it isn't. We're going to get it up here. I'm going to blow it up now because there's where we were. If you remember, we were talking about this number here at 1803. Yesterday we got to 1804. Today we hit 1803. We hit the exact number and we've had a pretty good rally. Folks, the problem is this is the bond market and this market is incredibly bearish. I mean, I hate to say how bearish it really looks because I'm just looking at the technicals. I'm not looking at the fundamentals. It just looks like interest rates want to go higher. Now, if we look at this on a weekly basis, you're going to see here, just get this up here. Remember, we've been bearish on this for two and a half years, folks. The real bearishness was right here when we had the 135 pattern. This was a weekly 135 pattern. Then we had another 382, look at this. Right here, then you had the ABCD down. Then you had the little ABCD up here at the 382 of that one and look where we're headed, folks. We're going to 105. This is a long way down. I mean, there's minor support in here, but I mean like minor, minor, minor, minor. So keep in mind, the interest rates are probably going to go higher. That's what it looks like from the cheap seats here in Tucson, Arizona today, okay? So let's move on here and talk about the stock market because I wanted to show you what happened to stocks this morning. As we were here this morning, you can see, we've been bearish this, you know, we hit that beautiful ABCD up there at 45.65, 45.57. We're now below that by a little bit, but you'll notice here this morning, after the market broke, you'll see that it went right up to a perfect 382 retracement. Broke again, made another 382 retracement, and now we're amidst of a little bit of a rally here. Now, the trading gods, if they're really good, what they're going to do is they're going to give you a chance to get a nice little 382 rally in here again today, and that's up only seven points from where we are right now for heaven's sake. So I'm going to put that here on my limit minder to see if we get to this 4480 level, and I think we could possibly do that. Now, looking on a very, very short-term basis, and we're going to look at this short-term and I know there's a lot of folks out there. We did make a nice little bottom right here. You can see the double. There's your first eight. Well, just draw them in so everybody can see what we're looking at. Here's your first ABCD swing right here. Alrighty, then you have the second one right behind it, and guess what that makes that one, folks? That makes that drive one, drive two, drive three, and there's our rally, and it looks like we might even be able to get up there at 44.79. Maybe the Fed will say something like, we're done raising, and they could. I don't think they will, but they could. Maybe that will change everything. Who knows? Okay, now, the next one we want to take a look at, here is the, hold on one second. We did the bonds. Okay, here's the euro, and here the euro, when the news came out, you'll see where we were related to the 61% retracement of that whole move. Remember, this is when Peter from Palm, from Park City called us down here when we were right at this level right here. This was the daily. Now look, we made a perfect 61% retracement up here, folks. Just got, you know, had everything in there that you could possibly want. Let's just look at the ABCDs. We can draw them in. So those of you that don't believe in ABCDs will have something to think about tonight. There was your ABCD right here, and right behind that was this one right here, and that was right there. So I don't know, maybe they work sometimes. I don't know, but anyway, that's what's happened. Now what we got to do is we got to see if this is for real. And I think that it is. What is going to be the pullback on this euro coming into this level right up in here? Okay, so we've already made the 382. We're trading almost exactly at it right now. We have a tiny, tiny, this is a 13 minute charge. So it's a little tiny three drive here, not worthy of it, but we want to see a nice ABCD somewhere down in this area right here. There's a really good chance that this euro has changed. And the reason why we say that was based on, if you remember, the weekly, because there was our number right here. That was 10 pips from where we thought it could go to. Maybe it's going to go down and get those 10 pips here at 61, 11. The low was 21. And now we're still 75 handles, 75 points higher than that. So we've been down 10 weeks, just like the dollar index was up 10 weeks. So that's holding in there relatively well. So I hope that helps you with your analysis of what we're looking at here today. Now, we don't always know what's going to happen next, but the patterns will give us an indication. Yes, they do work, but not all the time. And the secret there is not all the time. It's all based on probability. And you want to have those probabilities working in your favor. That's what the real beauty of pattern recognition is when you start to look at this. Now, what I'm going to do now is to put these charts up here so that we can want to get the windows lined up so that I can put them up. And I'm missing one. So what I wanted to do is I wanted to add, we'll probably do it when we come back from the break. I want to add the wheat market to the next part of the analysis. And we'll be right back, folks. Steve Rhodes started his trading career as a student almost 20 years ago, and the student has now become the master. Steve won the prestigious Timer of the Year award in 2018 and barely missed that mark again in 2019, finishing at number two for the year, an amazing accomplishment. Steve Rhodes is committed to sharing his techniques and knowledge with anyone who wants to learn. And he shares his vast amount of trading knowledge every day in his Mastering Probability Newsletter. 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Okay, folks, I put up a chart here of the December wheat. This is a weekly chart. As you can see, we thought it was going to hold down there at around $5.75. $5.75 went to $5.72. Then it rallied up to $6.05, and it's now down $0.20 from that level. So what we're going to do is for kicks and giggles, we're going to take it down to an hourly chart, and I just want to show the move that we've had. There's just a second here. You can see the new lows that have just been made here. They've come down. That's what I'm talking about today. You'll see here that we came down and made a, basically, you'll see the 61% retracement was just a tiny bit off from there. You'll see it by about $0.04, and then we had the rally. Right here, folks, this is the important one, because here's what's happened since that rally occurred. You'll notice this is an hourly, so you can see the multiple ABCD patterns forming. Okay, now, you see this little number right over here? You'll never guess what that is. Yes, Johnny, I see a 2, and it is 0.382, and there it is. Now we've got something to work with, folks. We've got an hourly chart, so we're going to have one full day's action right here. Very good swings. Pull the way back down, rallies right back up, and then back down again. The best way to see this is to move over to a little shorter timeframe, move it over like this, and this is what I try to do for a living each day. I'll say you can see what happened. There's your big ABCD right up here. At 93, the market comes down. You don't believe these numbers. If you think these boys at Black Rock and those places don't, but there's your 78% on the downside. Here's your 78% on the upside. It goes through it by 2 cents, and now look where we're coming into right now. We're going to have something to look at here, not today, but tomorrow, because what we're going to be looking at is we have a double ABCD. No question about that. There's your first ABCD pattern right there, right on the money. That was a 786 off of that. Then we come down. We've got another move up here. Now we're doing a 618. That's where we want to be, which will be when the fat lady sings, when it makes this leg right here, right down here. Then we're going to move this over just a little bit so we can get all the lows in. There's where we were just the other day, so we should get down here one more time down here to 582. That should be today or tomorrow. Watch the weed at 582. Here's a double possible double bottom in here, but that's what we want to be looking at. There's where your risk parameters come in, and it gives you a really good chance to decide whether you want to be a buyer or a seller. But let's get back to where the fat lady sings, and that's up here in this bond marker. We're not too far away from the old stop and pee. We've only got another 4 cents, and we'll be up to the old 382. I wonder who'll be selling there. We'll find someone, I'll bet. Okay, let's move on here, and we're going to take a look at this weed one more time. This is what we're looking at here. One more ABC down in this area. Remember the low we had? We've got to go back to the hourly chart to remember the low, which was way back here. Remember this low right here? So we're going to take this low out, and we're going to come right down here. So 577 is where you want to be looking to be the buyer of the weed. I'm just going to draw this in so you can see it. There's your AB leg right here. There's your 577 coming in. Look, there's your 1.618. There's your 1.27, 578. You buy it at 570. Let's say 577 is the number. We'll buy it at 578 and a quarter, and I'd risk 8 cents. So your stop would be 570. Well, that's even too much. I'd say 572 risk 6 cents. 572 would be the stop if you wanted to look at that, because that would be a really nice setup. That would be best if it did it tomorrow, because it's 10.30 almost here, well, 1.30 in New York. So I would say 578 is what you want to be watching, but I want to put my limit in here so I know where in heck I am, and then that'll give us a rough idea of where we are. Okay, now let's move back and talk a little bit more about the bond market, because that is the one when the Fed comes out, and they do say something. Let's get up here to get this 4-hour chart in here, because this is a really big thing here. And the whole world has seen this now. See, because we've hit it yesterday, it was 04. Today, the low was 03. The rally back, all we've done so far today is rally back, I believe, about 61% retracement. Yeah, that's just a little bit more. There's your high, there's your low. Yeah, just a couple ticks more than the 61% retracement. But if the Fed comes out and drops a bombshell, like raise rates a half a percent, and they could because they can do whatever they want to and they usually do, most probably if they raised a rate, it would be a quarter percent because they know how the people in the stock market react and they don't want to scare the Bajibis out of them unless they're on the short side of the market and then they can scare whatever they want to, folks. So remember, the Fed people are out there trading this market, but we do accept that they have a slight advantage of what these patterns... Well, I'm sure they look at the... Well, maybe they don't at all. They've got all the fundamental information that they have, but this is the key level here. That's why you see this little red dot here. That tells me that when that gets below that, that tells me... And when we close below that, that tells me heading down to 105. And that's $13,000 from where we are now, folks. That means rates will be substantially higher than 5%. Probably closer to 5.5% or 6%. And I believe that's where they're going to be going, but that's still a little bit early in the game, so we're going to have to wait and find out if that is going to be the case. So I hope that information is helpful to you. Like I mentioned before, Peter Lides will be our guest tomorrow. Tomorrow, I'm trying to... I'm trying to get Jeff huge as our guest, but he still has the flu. And by the way, if you're thinking of Tom Hougar today, make sure you think of Tom Hougar today because today is his birthday. Happens to be the same birthday that my mother had September the 19th and my very dear friend, John Rafoni, who passed away two years ago, almost to the day, and left an incredible fortune to his family so much bigger than whatever I thought it was, folks. It was really funny. I'd known John first. He was one of the first people I met in California, and he was the broker for three cities there on the Central Coast, and I was at Drexel. I was at Illilly first and then at Drexel, and we did a lot of business together with gold and stuff. But John's business was real estate. His great-grandfather was one of the founding people of the little town of Guadalupe, which is where Richie Valens, if you remember, the guy that was killed back in February of 1959, you know, with the big bopper and Buddy Holly. Buddy, he was a singer, and he was born in Guadalupe and went to little tent cities. But John's great-grandfather started all that, and he had all that land. I knew he had the land. I didn't know how much it was and how much it was worth, and it had oil on it, and it was a lot, folks. I mean, it was so much. I can't even tell you, but it was over $100 million that he had left the family, all of us in real estate. The funniest part of this is, I mean, he was like a brother to me. His whole stock portfolio was $75,000, and every stock that he had in it, he died two years ago, yesterday. Every stock was losing. Anyway, that's neither here nor there. Stay tuned for Peter Lides, 877-927-6648. We'll be right back. The Gold Report As a precious metal, gold is still king. It continues to hold the most effective safe haven in hedging properties across the global major trading hubs of the London OTC market, the US futures market, and the Shanghai Gold Exchange. The Gold Report Tom O'Brien publishes his weekly Gold Report every Monday morning for subscribers, consisting of coverage of the XAU, HUI, GDX, The Dollar, Bonds, the South African Rand, as well as 25 different mining equities with specific buy-sell recommendations. The Gold Report New subscribers get a 30-day money-back guarantee so you have nothing to risk. Subscribe to Tom O'Brien's Gold Report newsletter now at TFNN.com from the most aesthetically pleasing artwork to patterns in the stock market. To stay on top of stock patterns you can take advantage of, sign up for the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter at TFNN.com. When you subscribe, you'll get a weekly report from Veteran Day Trader Larry Pezzavento on stocks you need to pay attention to, and you can trust Larry's analysis. After all, he's got 45 years' experience as a day trader. Larry will also provide daily charts, videos, and data on the key markets that he's tracking. Expect notifications from Larry on market movement you need to act on at any time. First-time subscribers also get a 30-day money-back guarantee. If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. Subscribe to the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter today at TFNN.com You have to practice, sure, but you also need excellent instruction from experts. At TFNN, you'll get advice and guidance from the authority in technical market analysis, and it's not just dry, tedious text either. TFNN airs live financial content streamed live on TFNN.com and TFNN's YouTube channel with Tiger TV, live every market day from 8.30 a.m. to 4.00 p.m. Eastern. For free, each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world. From the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds, Tiger TV has eight different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money. Watch online at TFNN.com or on TFNN's YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be. TFNN Educating Investors Don't forget, you can listen to TFNN live on your mobile device 24 hours per day. Go to TFNN.com, then hit Watch Tiger TV. That's TFNN.com, then hit Watch Tiger TV. Okay, we're back, folks, and I believe we have Peter Lighties in the house. Peter, how are you doing? I'm doing great, Larry. How about you? Ah, still living a dream, Belle. I can't believe we've been doing this for so long and still loving it, you know? We've been blessed for sure. Yeah, we'll go on with that. Peter, tell me something, my friend. You posted a chart. Usually I'm pretty good with some of these things, but this one has caught me by surprise. I looked at it, I think I know what it is, but do you want to tell the folks what you're looking at here? Yeah, I'd love to do that, Larry. I'm fascinated by this chart because of the way it turned out. I got an idea several weeks ago back around, I think it was around June or so. It appeared once again that there was great speculation in the market. And I said, I know there's different ways of measuring that, but probably one of the more speculative indexes is the NASDAQ 100. This includes most of the high tech stocks that are in the NASDAQ. And so I said, we've got enough history of that to go back, I don't know, 25, 30 years. What if I compared that NASDAQ 100 with the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which is one of the best known market averages going back to the 1890s now. We don't have that kind of data on the NASDAQ, but what if I divided the NASDAQ 100 with the Dow Jones Industrial and came up with a ratio? And let me see if that ratio would tell me anything. Well, lo and behold, when you look at this chart, Larry, you'll notice in the right in the middle of the chart about the bottom third. I've got something said 45%. I see that, yes. That horizontal line going across at 45% is the only times in history, and when I say history, we really have history going back. It says 91 at the beginning of the chart, but you can go back another 15 or 20 years from that. And you'll see the only time we have reached a 45% ratio of NASDAQ 100 divided by Dow Jones Industries was in March of 2000, November of 2021, in July of this year. Wow. I came up with this ratio before July, but imagine the two times that it hit there. I mean, the March of 2000 was probably the end of the greatest speculative takeoff in the history of U.S. markets. Doctors and lawyers were quitting their jobs and trading stocks thinking it was the easiest thing in the world to do. That was the dot-com era, right? It was what? That was the dot-com era, wasn't it? That's correct. There was the dot-com craze. Absolutely, dot-com craze. And now, what do we have to take its place? Well, the AI craze, artificial intelligence, is going to change the world. And boy, the market will never be the same again, and you can't use your old valuation formulas, and you won't be able to stop this market. I doubt if we'll ever see another bear market again, Larry. I mean, with artificial intelligence. Are you kidding? Come on. In the meantime, take a look at this chart. March of 2000, for one week, it got above the ratio, got above 45%, and that was within one week of the high that occurred in March of 2000, from which the NASDAQ 100 came down 83.5%. I remember that very well. Peter, now this is another way of expressing overvaluation. Is that correct? Yes, overvaluation and speculation. Okay, and speculation too. Okay, that's really cool. Yeah, that's very good. Now, just an up-to-date on the markets we've had to hide, came in here back on September the 1st, and then we had a pretty big break into the 7th and the rally. Now we started to break down again. That's one of the most various formations I've seen in a long time, Peter. Am I correct on that? That does look pretty nasty. Yeah, well, I've gotten very, very bearish in the last few weeks. I mean, I've been bearish since we reached this ratio again in July. I got very bearish once again. But then we had a nice little decline, but a rally back almost back to the July eyes again. And I'm not an Elliott Wave guy, Larry, but I... No, I'm not either. I'm acquainted with the theory. And you can make a very strong case that we did five down into the October low of last year. We did an ABC up into the July eyes. And now we've done a one down and a two up. And even if you don't follow Elliott Wave, most people have heard of a three, a wave three. And wave three is what we're getting right now. And that's where the acceleration to the downside theoretically will come in. Again, that's Elliott Wave, and I'm not an Elliott Wave, but I can read that he leaves here. Yeah, I looked at Elliott Wave years ago when John Hill started me looking at this stuff back in 1970. And frankly, I just see all these little wiggles and stuff. And the only thing I don't like about the Elliott Wave, I see the letter occasionally. They never say buy here or sell here. They just say it may do this, it may do that. And you and I are not in the may do business. We got to do because we have to make a decision. I mean, I guess my major point about it is the fact that it's subjectivity, you know. You get five so-called Elliott Wave experts, and they all give a different count. So I don't know how helpful that can be, you know. Yeah, I'm the same way. I really have two people agree on something that five people can't agree on anything. Listen, Peter, I want to thank you for being our guest today. I hope to have you on again in a few weeks. And you're staying healthy. Everything's good. I never felt better, Larry. How about you? Me too. Same way. I've been pretty lucky. You're just a couple of years older than me, and we've known each other 60 years. Can you believe that, my friend? Oh, my God. I know, it's hard to. I can remember when I first met you, it was through Eddie Horowitz. And of course, you were doing your gig as you played the piano and the clarinet and you sang and stuff. I remember you were really the, well, I guess you'd call you the cosmopolitan man of Los Angeles when I first met you many, many years ago. So anyway, listen, thanks for joining us, my friend, and tell your lovely family. Is George still working with you, or did he, whatever happened to your son? My son George is working for Bloomberg in New York City. Very good. Will you do me a favor, Peter? Sure. Will you tell them to go back to the old format for Bloomberg TV? They've got so much stuff on there, you can't read any of it. It's too small. They've got like 10 different boxes, and it's way too small, and it's not being used by very many people. You know, I've been in this, what these people are looking for, but they've got seasonals and all kinds of stuff, but it is the most discouraging thing for me, and I don't wear glasses. And the only way I can see it from 30 feet away is to put my glasses on before I could do it without the glasses, but complain to them about that. I mean, I don't know, I asked Tom O'Brien to do it. I don't know if George has anything at all to do with Bloomberg TV, but I'll definitely tell him that my buddy Larry Pesavento complained about the way you guys are presenting your data on television now. Just do something about it. There you go. Hey, listen, buddy. We appreciate it. Thank you very much. And I talked to Eddie's wife, just a few days ago, and she said to say hello to you. So if you get a chance, give her a call. She likes to hear from some little friends. Yeah, I do give her a call once in a while. I think about her all the time. Thank you. Peter Lottie is your stand-up guy, and we really want to thank you for being our guest today. Okay, buddy? My pleasure. Bye-bye. We'll be right back, folks. You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market, you're going to need a crystal ball. After all, it's impossible to predict the future, right? 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The funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors. This program is brought to you by Vista Gold, traded on the NYSE American and TSX under the symbol VGZ. Okay, folks, I posted the chart of the E-mini S&P. We just hit the beeper went off twice at 44.79, which was the 382 retracement of the high from yesterday, believe it or not. I was able to rally 17 points, which is pretty good coming off the bottom. So I hope that makes sense to you that did hit that now on the trade like that. Someone asked me the question, how much money would I be willing to risk there? Well, the harmonic number in this S&P, since this verse started trading, yeah, but I'm not seeing anything on my screen. All I'm looking at is the... I don't have my screen up, but if I put the screen up, I guess I could see it. So, yeah, okay. So that's what we're looking at here. Anyway, the harmonic number is 5.5. If you went back and look at every swing, major one, from the start in April of... April 16th, 1982, 5.5. When it first started, it was 3.5 to 5.5. But 5.5 is the harmonic number. Anyway, that is basically three off the bottom. They're about 17, so you're pretty much spot on. I would not risk more than one harmonic number, which is 5 points. So if it went to 44.85, I would be out of that trade with a 6-point loss and say goodbye. So right now, so far, it's starting to work. I don't know if it's going to continue or that, but we're going to look at something else here right now that is also in play. Here is the heating oil, folks, on the weekly chart. Now, what I'm going to do now, you can see here, this is a weekly. We hit that weekly, then we backed off last week. So what we're going to do now is we're going to go up and we're going to put the daily up. And you can see here, what we've done here, let's get this up right here. Okay, there's the 61% retracement on the weekly. You see that? That was a three drive at the weekly. Then it went from 51 all the way down to 27, dropped 15 handles. So we're going to look at where it is right now. So for that, we have to go to an hourly chart. And here's where we are right now. And that's why my beeper just went off. I want to get this up together. Just let you take a look at it because here's where we, there was the big number right up here, 618 on the long-term weekly. Then we come down. You can see we've made on the way down. We've had several nice ABCD patterns. There's one right here. Goes pretty much where it should be. And what we've done so far is we've had a rally back from the high. Try it again, cowboy. Hold on here from low to the high. And there it is right there. We just hit it just about an hour or so ago. We hit the exact 61% retracement up here at 351. The high was 351. 20. Missed it by 30 cents. And now it's 30 cents below that. And now we're starting to hear the bell ring in the old S&P. Let's see how much the old cowboy is going to have to risk to see if I'm wrong. Let's get this up here. Won't have to take long. Hold on just a second to get this up here so we can all see the market go against me a little bit. And that's all right. That's okay. I have to take losing trades occasionally. But there was the number. It went above it. Now it's going above it. My stop is right there. So that's not a big deal. So I'm just going to move it where my stop should be, folks. I was short a bit of this on the way down. I didn't cover here, but I did cover pretty good. So all I'm saying now is it should be, I want to verify this number just to be safe. Because when I do too many things at once, I am correct because there was our high in the overnight market right here at 10. Remember it never made the 3-8-2 on the big move. But you can see from your high down to your low, that does come in here at 4.79. 90. I sold the 4.79. It's now 4.79. 4.82 and a quarter. My stop will be right above here is where I'm putting. And frankly, it doesn't make any difference to me whether I get stopped out or not. It's been a good day. And I don't even worry about it. But that's the kind of trade that I'm looking to do. And I'll do that all day long. If I'm willing to do a 3-8-2 like this one, OK, and there was just missed a 3-8-2 by one point on this one. And if I'm looking at this bottom down in here, which I happen to be very, very busy, by the time I saw it, it was already here. I missed the bottom by a little bit. So this looks like that we're going to be taking a few point loss in this. But as opposed to taking a 3-point loss right now, I would rather leave my stop. Well, I'm not going to have much of a chance. Am I? I want to put my stop in right above here. And if they get me, I'll be happy and call it a day. And then I'll not worry about, because that would be a 50% retracement. That whole move down, which would, first of feds out there now, too. So maybe they'll be out there talking about something that may or may not be very, very exciting. So I hope that makes some sense to what's going on here with these things. So glad to be able to share some of my answers. Like I said, it don't work all the time, but it works some of the time. And that's all I'm looking for to have to do. Now, someone's asked me, why didn't you risk two points on that? Two points is too small, even though at this point it looks like that would have been the right thing to do. But that's, I have a game plan and I stick to that game plan and I don't expect to be right more than two out of three times. And if I could hit two out of three in baseball, I could still be playing for the Cardinals. But unfortunately, that didn't happen. And I'm not. So I do what I do well. And I do one thing, folks. I say it day after day, is live every day in an attitude of gratitude and may God bless and thank God for ABCD. By the way, I want to show you what I got as a gift from one of our listeners here. This is my new water glass. It's water for crystal, folks. This glass weighs one pound. I can't believe it. It's like lifting weights, but it is really pretty and very shiny and keeps my sparkling water just nice and fresh. Okay, question from somebody else is, how do I determine risk? Well, I determine risk by looking at the patterns. I mean, if a pattern fails beyond 1.618, it's cyanara. You know, who knows where it's going to go? I don't know. Nobody else does either. So there's the key. You've got to be determined on what you like to do, like this particular pattern here. If it gets above this number here, 4486, I'm willing to say no chance. I'll take that $300 loss and move on to the old... There it is right there. I haven't got it yet, but it's real close. It missed it by one tick. No, it says... I have to stop at 86. Why didn't I get filled at 86? Well, not going to worry about it, but I had to stop at 86. It didn't hit 86. You'll see the flash when it comes up. Well, not going to worry about that. Move on here. Okay, let's forget about that, and I'll get this off the beaten path here for just a little bit. Let's see where we are with the old Bondolis, because I think if any surprise comes, that's where... Oh, I've got to get this thing. I've got too much junk in here, folks. Let me go here. I've got a window to get the time vertical so I can wear the bonds here. There we are. The bonds are moving up a little bit, so that's a... I'll get that out of the way. Hold on. This is the one that I'm expecting big things from wherever the Fed decides to do something with interest rates. I really believe that they're going to surprise some people and raise one more time, maybe two, maybe three, I don't know, but the bonds are... Unless this is the big bottom, and I certainly don't think that it is, but the fact that it hit that number perfectly today, yesterday it missed it by a point, hit its spot on perfectly today, that means something pretty good, I think. Now, I happened to be long to bonds and I got my stop right there. If it gets back down there again, I'll do it. All right, take a break. 877-9766-48. And today, visit the front page of TFNN.com, TFNN Educating Investors. You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market, you're going to need a crystal ball. After all, it's impossible to predict the future, right? Like any endeavor in life, before you decide it's impossible, get some advice from the experts. You might find that it's not so impossible after all. For daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices, selective stocks and commodities, subscribe to the opening call newsletter at TFNN.com. 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If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. Subscribe to the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter today. TFNN.com Educating Investors Okay, folks. I posted a chart here of the Dao E-Mini. And as you can see here, we made these charts and they are almost, almost true. We made today's chart here. Okay folks, I posted the chart here of the Dao E-Mini. As you can see here, we made the first 3-8-2 retracement here yesterday, and then we had another one that's just finishing up right now. That's the 3-8-2. Oh, for this one, this is the equivalent to what we were looking at here in the S&P. But the S&P went up and made it, and I did just get it filled at 4486, and so I did get out of that. Now, what I'm going to do now is if it doesn't considerably start to go higher, I'm probably going to resell it here at 4486, and just risk another $0.05, because that is a possibility that it made the 50%, whereas the Dow Jones only made the 3-8-2. So that could be a sign of weakness, and I'm willing to take advantage of, remember, it's way below the opening price. So that also gives me a slight advantage, because if you're below the opening price, in short, your odds of winning are better than 75%. If you're above, it's minus 25%. So that's one of those that would be a good spot to take a look at it anyway, okay? So that's what we're watching here today. Live every day in an attitude of gratitude, and may God bless, and try to do something for your neighbors each day, folks. I've got a full minute to go. If anybody has any questions, the only other question that I had today I can't really answer, and that is I made a comment about ARM, the software company came out, and the fact that it was trading at 55% where it came out. That means everybody bought it, since the initial issue on Monday was Friday, those two days everybody that bought it in those last two days has now lost money. So that's the main thing that I was watching when I was talking about that. That's all it was. It was about the number of people that bought it. I remember when Facebook came out, it came out and went all the way up to 42%. From 42, it went to 17. And then after that, it wrote the history books. Anyway, we'll catch you on the flip side tomorrow, folks. Live every day in an attitude of gratitude, and may God bless.