 Sell and May and go away. It's an old adage for the traditional market. And what I want to do today is do a recap of if that is applicable to our market. Now, we actually take a look at this about a year ago or so. And it was a video that was quite popular because and actually I've been talking about this for quite some time because it's been going through my head. I keep hearing the same thing. Sell and May go away. Sell and May go away. And especially with all the different things that are happening in the macro environment, maybe this is an option to further explore. And the video that we did, this was back in March 23, 2022. And we took a look at if this could actually be viable. And back then, Bitcoin was a whopping 42,000. Ethereum was almost 3,000. Tethered Nobody Cares, Binance 402. It was a pretty good time, quite honestly. So if we would have done that at that point in time, how would we have done to this point? So we just take a look at March 22, 2022. And March on March 22, roughly, price was 42,000. Now, if I would have waited until I said I was going to or potentially do it, which was back in that would be in May. First, roughly, I would have sold at 38,537. Sell and May go away. So if I would have done that, which we sold a little bit, not an extreme amount, actually worked out pretty well. And of course, you can see that Bitcoin dropped and down to 19,000 September, September is the worst month, then we even went even lower, 17,000 2022. And of course, we recapped. So doing it from there would have been great. So why don't we just do that all the time? Just sell and may go away. Sell and may go away. Sell and may go away. I don't think you should. And here's why. So the article that we took a look at, which is some data points, which is from Forbes, from Simon Moore, should you sell and may go away in 2021? And the things that we talk about here are going to be applicable to 2023, 24 and 25. Here's what it said. Markets have tended to return closer to 1% over the May to October period. Then it does 5% during the winter months on average. So you got to say yourself, well, it's still 1%. That's not bad. I'll do that. And this is data from 1919 to 2017, across 65 different countries. So it's not just centralized here in America, it takes a look at a wide swath of information. It's important to note this rule does not hold up each year. Let me say that one more time. It's important to note that this rule does not hold up each year just on average. Even if it returns a 1% of the summer months, it's still positive, right? So why don't we just do it? There's a little caveat, which all comes down to the time or the cycle of years. So on this channel, we're a big believer in four-year cycles. It all starts with the halving, right? 2012, we had our first Bitcoin halving, then you hit an all-time high, then there's a dip and a reset. It happened again in 2016. There was a halving, 2017, now all-time high. That's when I got into it. 2018-2019 dip and a reset. And we just had it again. Did we not halving, 2020, all-time high? Then there was a massive dip or correction, then a reset, which we're going through right now in 2023. And I think it will continue again. But again, who knows? It's just remarkable that the four-year cycle has still held up so far. So then the question that you're asking yourself is this. Well, if that's what's happening, how do we look at it over the months? And this is Ben's website on the cryptiverse, links in the description, first month, that percent off, looking or something like that. So if we take a look at May, what if we sold in May? And again, that'd be the first of May, not the end of May. Well, if we did that in 2022, which we did a little bit, pretty good. 2021, yeah. But 2020, not so much. 2019, definitely not. 62% then 26% in June. And then how about 2018? Okay. 2017, 2016, and so on and so forth. If you take a look at May, this is around 13 or 14 years, really look at it. One, two, three, four, five months are five of the May months out of all those years. It's only five of them out of 13. Let's take a look at June. You know, June, one, two, three, four, five. It's only five months or five times, excuse me, five times out of the 13-year history. If you look at July, so on and so forth, August, the worst month statistically in the crypto market has been September. You've got a negative month, one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine, 10. It is far and away the worst month in the crypto market. Traditional, we'll get to that in a second. So any of you think to yourself, well, all right, this might be a viable option. Just wait. So when we talk about selling in May and going away, May is tied with February for producing the S&P 500's second worst average price change. July is actually the single best month for average price change in itself. So May is negative. July is pretty good. In fact, and this is in traditional markets, only one month really stands out on a historical basis as a good one to miss. Since 1928, S&P 500 has delivered an average price change of negative 1% in September. Since 1928, September, I just find it very interesting. In traditional markets, it's the worst month. And in our crypto digital asset market, September is also the worst month. Something to keep into consideration. But this is, then it gets even deeper. Again, it all depends on the year. Some years May is awful. And ours is only five months. In other years, it's the best. So how do we differentiate? Well, for us, I take a look at four year cycles, but also in traditional markets, you also have to think about, because we are correlated a little bit, midterm elections. And this is where it gets even more interesting. Midterm election years are typically the most challenging for equity investors as the S&P posts its weakest average annual return and highest level of volatility. The selling May months of midterm election years since 1992 lost an average of 3.4% while declining nearly 40% of the time. And the conclusion is most of us should just stay. Bulk investors really just not really do much of anything. Just stick it around for the long haul. But if you look at this, this midterm elections, midterm elections, we just have one here in the United States in 2020, 2022, just last year. The Senate, you got 34 seats, the House all four and 35 seats are up. The markets do not like volatility. When they don't like volatility, there's a lot of negative price action. And in 2022, which we just lived through, was it not one of the worst years that we've seen in quite some time for traditional market and for the crypto market? Absolutely. So again, it is the year that we're talking about as far as this selling man go away. Now in 2023, you're right right now, nothing's happening for elections. It's an off year. I mean, there's simultaneous governors and governors are up for election, whatever, but it's not as much volatility. What happens in 2024? Well, Super Tuesday comes for us and we have a presidential election in November. And of course, the next president takes over around January 20 2025. And what is 2025? It is an off year. And we don't have any other problem until the next part, which is a midterm in 2026. So again, going back to it, what happens for the next part in the four year cycles 2023, which we're at right now is a redemption reaccumulation year, I think. And if we take a look at it, what happens in 2024? Well, we have a Bitcoin halving. We have a presidential election. We don't have midterms. And what happened in 2025? There's nothing really going on, except for potentially an all time high. And then midterms happen when in 2026 and 2027 is a reset. It's just amazing how things line up. So then you have to ask yourself this, okay, Rob. So if all these things are happening, and we've got the different things that are happening as far as like midterm elections. If we're looking at the four year cycles, how would we have done if we go back to the last reset year of the four year cycle? The last reset year of the four year cycle was 2019. If we take a look at that, we can see that in that reset year, if we would have sold in May and gone away. Here's what would have happened to us. Around May 1st, Bitcoin was a whopping $5,731. Somewhere around there, $5,300. Somewhere so forth. If we would have sold in May and gone away, what would we have missed? Everything. Everything moving forward. Now, again, what was the last reset year before 2019? The last reset year in the four year cycle was 2015. What would have happened there? Well, pretty much the same thing. If we would have gone through May 1st, when Bitcoin was a stupendously high $235, what would we have missed? Everything. So again, selling in May and going away is applicable, but it depends on the year. Just like the first article took a look at, it all depends on the year in which it is going. So people will say, well, Rob, but you don't understand because of selling in May and going away. It's totally different now because Bitcoin has never been through a war, recession, a pandemic, hilarious, regulation crackdown and quantitative tightening. It's only gone through quantitative easing. Well, not so much. So look, as far as wars go, there's this little war called the Iraq and Afghanistan war, which America was involved in for over a decade. And that seemed to go off without a hitch and Bitcoin still went up during that time. Also, if we take a look at the wars that are going on right now throughout the world in 2000 and on the left hand side is when it was started. And the right hand side, if it's ongoing or if it is concluded, we can see that there's quite a bit of civil wars, violence, different wars throughout the different nation states. There's some Bob away, Lada standoff, war in Iraq, Russo-Ukrainian war, and all these things have actually happened. So when people say we haven't been through a war, yeah, we have. And we're going through one right now in Ukraine. So the next question then is, well, Rob, what about the recession? Bitcoin's never been through a recession. Yeah, it has. So during that pandemic, which it went through that without a hitch, in 2020, we had two consecutive quarters of GDP decline, which would equate to a recession. But however you wanted to find it, there was a lot of falling off the cliff as far as economic recovery and growth. So people say, yeah, but Rob, you don't understand because it's never gone through quantitative. It's only been through quantitative easing, not quantitative tightening. Well, yeah, we know it has, right? This is the M2 money supply. And we've gone off like gangbusters here in America. That's how we do things. We print. And we're going to see here the money supply has actually decreased. Quantity of tightening has actually happened throughout this whole time point. And yeah, the Fed had to do a little bit of magic tap dancing when different banks collapsed because that's just how it goes. But this has all happened beforehand. So then the question is, well, if we've gone through all that and Bitcoin has made it, what's happened? Well, it's doubled in the price. So during this whole time, you know, economic recessions and we've had this quantitative tightening and had different happenings for the macro events. We went from 15,742 all the way to 30,000. So for all these things that we're talking about here, Bitcoin has gone through all these things. And I think it will do better. Now, this is not financial advice. I'm not telling you what to do, but I'm trying to make the case that I think we have a lot of room to run. And me personally, even though I keep hearing the same thing in my head, selling may go away, selling may go away. I have to sit back and tell myself this might not be that year to sell a man go away. From just looking at the four year cycles again. So for me personally, I'm going to get away from that selling may go away and just write things out until maybe 2025. So that concludes this little piece. And just so you know, if you're looking for more data to do your own research and really get into it. Ben's got a great website and the crypto verse and we take a look at risk and a host of other things as far as macro events right now the risk factor we're at 0.49. And what does that all mean? I'll get to that also look into Bitcoin is a fantastic website to pull data from that's 100% free. I did a video on why and when I'm selling 80% of all my crypto six months ago, I use those two factors those websites quite heavily in this video, and I explain how to do those things. Also, if you don't want to hunt for that and look for more information, there's Dan teaches crypto, it's 100% free website. I have those and a plethora of other pieces of information in that website. And that is it. If you like today's video, give it a thumbs up, consider subscribing crypto is not a sudden and forget it type of investment. You really got to be on top of things. And that's why you should stop by every so often. But that's it for today. So thanks so much for stopping by. I do appreciate it. And I'll see you on the next one.