 Hi, everyone. This is Ms. Schneider, Chief Strategist of MarketGauge.com. I'm recording this on July 11 in the US, 2023. And by the time you hear this, obviously, you will already be into your trading day, waiting to see what happens as I wake up for the CPI numbers. And so as such, the expectation is for it to be cooler. And that certainly makes sense, since it's a measure that goes back. And if we look back, oil prices have actually decreased. They've gone back up again. Housing prices decreased a little bit, although they've come back again. Rent prices have certainly decreased. Use car prices have decreased. So these are the areas that people are focusing on to say, ah, consumer price is weak. That means no inflation. Of course, we are looking at other areas of inflation and have all along. But to start for today, I want to examine the dollar, because the dollar is obviously down a little bit here. And I don't believe it has anything to do with CPI. Just think it's the trajectory of the dollar against the euro and also against the yen. And we'll look at it against the British pound. And so that 101.7 level that I've been looking at just on the pure dollar basis, which is the 23-month moving average, which is basically a two-year business cycle. Clearly at this point in time, we are beneath trading at around 101.6. We were as low as right around 105 earlier today. Now, is that very significant right here and right now? Not necessarily from a monthly standpoint, because we still have a long way to go when it comes to the month of July, with a lot of things that could possibly happen within the month. But for right now, what we're looking at here is very interesting. If you just look at the chart, and remember now this is the dollar versus the euro, so it starts with the lead of the dollar. When we spoke last week, we said it's amazing how it was not able to get through that 50-day moving average. And so what you're seeing right now, obviously, is the sell-off once it could and clear. Of course, we're nowhere yet near the bottom here, which would be around 0.90 in change. So that would be a breakdown to a degree, but not necessarily the ultimate breakdown. And what is interesting here is you do have a little bit of a head and shoulders top. If you look at this is the shoulder, this is the head, and this is the other shoulder. Five, if we just look again, you know how I like to look, this is a candlestick chart. We have some of our indicators on here. But obviously, if we get through 0.91, then I would say that at this point now, I would probably think maybe a little bit of a bounce to the dollar, maybe back up to 0.915, maybe even a little bit higher, up to 0.917. And of course, if we gap even lower tomorrow and break down under this 0.907, then again, I would be looking for a move at least to 0.903 until we then see what happens with the CPI. But know this, we are trending lower. The momentum here is below the 50-day moving average and so far, not necessarily close to the Bollinger Band, which means we're really not at a mean reversion place yet to the buy side. Also, we have here something you haven't seen before. These are the six phases that we like to look at. And right now, even though red is depicted here as bearish and it looks more pink here, essentially what we're seeing right now is that we've had a couple of times where it's cleared the 50. But remember, those two days in a row that we like to look for did not happen. So we've had a couple of attempts at a recuperation phase, but here we are back in a bearish phase, as we can see here with the moving averages. Bad momentum, but that doesn't necessarily mean we can't see a little bit of a pop. Now moving over to gold, we actually got into some gold yesterday. That would be the 10th for a couple of reasons. Number one is I like the bottoming pattern here. We've talked a lot about a new 60-plus day low when it gets followed through the next day. That certainly happened. And even though it's going sideways, right now it also seemed obvious to us that gold was gonna hold around that 1900. And remember, we talked about that being the extremely important level of support. Now on the flip side, now that we've gotten this move, you can see we've gotten some sticks above this 1938, but that has now turned out to be some resistance. And right now, as the gold futures are getting ready to close here in the U.S., they're gonna close right around that resistance, which actually, of course, makes sense coming into the CPI. So for right now, I would say that today's range is probably a good range to gauge. So we're looking at around that 1930 level to hold. And if you come in tomorrow and it's trading below, then you might start to see a little bit of selling coming in with your real area of support being around 1915. And if it's above 1938, then I think you would be thinking now that this does look like a little bit of a bottoming formation, in which case we'd have to get through these sticks 1945. And then we really start to see some fun as we get closer into 1915, 1960. That's very short term. Now what's interesting here in the real motion indicator is we broke down under the 200 and we popped it back through it. And gold is in a caution phase, which means it's trading between the 200 day moving average and the 50 day moving average. So caution is caution. This actually did not get into a bearish phase. So with all the bearish talk about gold, it never really materialized. It's kind of more consolidating at this point. So let's move on to some of the other dollar pairs. So fascinating right now is the dollar to the end. Again, dollar being the lead currency here in this particular ratio. And we talked about this, right? 145 was so key for the dollar to take out against the end. It consolidated for days. That's why it's so important to not necessarily trade off in anticipation, but sometimes just wait for the actual signal. And it gave you some really good money. This is exactly what we talked about once it broke under 144 that it wouldn't find support until about the 50 day moving average. And clearly that has happened. So if you look strictly at the end to the dollar, to me it seems like unless we really get a hard gap lower underneath this 50 day moving average, we may have seen a good decline and may actually see a pop back with the dollar versus the end. Amy, so this is in a bullish phase. We have a lot of support down here. We've come off and had a mean reversion trade here in terms of the momentum, but we're holding right now also on its 50. So there's no divergence between price and momentum, which means that's a clean chart. Anything can happen. So here's how I would look at this as we're coming into pre-CPI and post-CPI. At this point right now, you really want to see 139.88 at the 50 day moving average. That would be your risk point. Anything that's trading above, and particularly if it's trading above these levels right here, if we connect these two highs, the body of this candle and the lower body of this candle, we're talking about 140.30. If 140.30 clears and we're just right there or holds even, then I would say it's possible that we're going to see the dollar pop against the end. And of course, if it gaps lower, then that's something else. And again, I would probably stay away between this and this level. So between 140.30 and 139.90, that might be very choppy, but under 130.990, then of course we're looking at a move lower to about 138.90. So that's one relationship. Let's take a look at yet another relationship. Now, of course, we're looking at the pound first versus the dollar. So you can see the pound is killing it. So here's your real breakout point, 1.285. So I would keep that in my mind as the pivotal area for trading tomorrow. We keep 1.285 intact. Then I see no reason why this can't go up higher. If we just scroll back in time, we are really having to look back from this time, really, from 2022, April, 2022, where we were at these levels. We're in an uptrend. We are over the Bollinger Band. This green here is the bullish phase, clearly. And so as long as we stay, like I said, above that 1.285, and I'm just, you know, it's a rough area. It's always hard to exactly pinpoint, but I like this 1.285 as the number that I think now on a short-term trading has to hold. So moving on to crude oil. I kind of feel like we nailed this, and I hope you guys made money off of it because we talked about the fact that the institutions were getting bearish down here, and we were actually starting to get bullish for mainly momentum reasons. So if we look right now, that's 75 to 76 level is key resistance. And of course, here we have our 200 day moving average a little higher at 77.50. But if we just look at the power of the base, we haven't quite taken out that base yet. So that kind of makes it pretty simple. We really have to take out the highs from right here at around 74.9, let's call it 75. In which case, if we just look at the amount of time that goes back, I mean, we can even take it back from here, but let's be more conservative. And say from early May, we've had a big base forming now, so over a couple of months. And that means if we can get this momentum going even further, then we could see this take a move up to around 83. $83 a barrel and people are going to start to get nervous, especially since we're seeing a decline in supply, not only with the cuts of OPEC, Russia, Saudis, but also with our own in the US strategic reserves being really low in terms of being able to release more in case the prices go much higher, because we didn't buy it back where we were supposed to, but that's another story. In the meanwhile, this is how I would look at it. We actually have been in the oil market for a while now since I've been actually pointing it out to you. If we get through 75, then I think that it would be a good situation to buy it. I think depending on the momentum, and of course it could even be a gap, we would have to say 77.20 would be a good place at least for a first stop. On the flip side, and this is what I'm going to be looking for tomorrow, if we take a look again, let's go through some of the recent activity, looking at candle wicks and candle hops, and everything lines up very well at the 72.92 level. So in essence, if we break down under $72.92 in the oil, then I would be more inclined to say either get out of my longs or look for a move back down to test that 50 at about $1.70 lower or $71.26. This is natural gas. Now to me, the most interesting thing about the natural gas chart really happens down here in the momentum indicator, our real motion indicator. And what this is telling you is a real bullish divergence. And by very simply, we have cleared the 50, and obviously we've cleared the 50 here in momentum. But look at the 200 day moving average, where it's well up here on the price chart, it's actually cleared in the momentum chart. Now, we don't necessarily mean that that's so screaming by for the natural gas, but that combined with the fact that it's held two, and combined with the fact that the momentum is so good and we are in a recuperation phase, tells me that we would want to be seeing now this holder around the 2.57. Holds around 2.57, we can get back above, let's say these highs here at 2.8. I see no reason why we can't get closer to three, and then re-evaluate from there. Underneath that 2.57, then I would start to be a little bit more cautious. Now just the opposite of what we saw in oil, sugar actually has a bearish divergence in the momentum versus the price. Why? It's above the 50, excuse me, above the 200 here in price, well above it, but not quite clearing it here even on the momentum indicator, which tells me right now that this has to really do something spectacular from this point. And we talked about that 24 level, right? Gets through 24, I think that we're gonna see higher prices in sugar. It certainly would fit with a new inflation wave based more on other factors than obviously post COVID. And also, I would imagine at that point we would start to see this take out its 200 and the Bollinger band. So you would get both a mean reversion, a clearance of the 200 on the momentum and also then a price breakout over 24, which I believe could take us at least back up to 25, which is where the 50 day moving average before we reevaluate. And of course, where would I say no way? Forget it, this is actually this bearish momentum divergence is showing that this is running out of steam. That would be a move under 23.15. Okay, that's it for now. Hope you have a great day. Thanks so much for watching. Bye for now.