 Hey, everyone, this is Mish, Michelle Schneider, Chief Strategist of MarketGauge.com. And we're gonna do a quick run through of a very interesting time in the markets right here in the US, especially on the heels of so many economic stats that are coming out this week, earnings also still continuing. And on top of that, we have the FOMC meetings. So what is so interesting to me as first for public news today with JP Morgan, everything that's come out about the market has been incredibly absorbed by several of the indices, not all of the indices and many of the sectors, not all of the sectors. Well, we're gonna focus on the strongest ones today and what to look out for. So what you're looking at right here is the chart of the S&P. This is a daily chart. Obviously you can see that we've gone through the 50-day moving average. This Bollinger ban, though, is turning out to be pretty good resistance. And I'll show you in a moment, if we switch to a 23-month moving average chart, we can also see that 420, which so many people are talking about, is such a huge area of resistance. So you can take this as one of two ways. With a new high, a high that we have not seen really since February, which means it's more than a 60-plus day, we could say that today was it. This is the reversal pattern. It tried so hard to close near the highs and instead we're gonna go lower and if we open up anything lower than today's low, which is 415.27, and today I mean Monday, that means at least we'll see some kind of a support around 410, but under that, we're going back down. And this was just some kind of a aberration in April and of course the old sell-in may go away, which I particularly do not like that expression. But also we have to look at the momentum indicator here on the daily and quite honestly, even though it's rolled over a little bit, it certainly hasn't shown any kind of overboard in terms of momentum and it hasn't had any kind of mean reversion in that it hasn't cleared over the Bollinger bands and come back through. Plus there's no divergence between price and momentum. As you can see, we have a trip down to the 50 here potential and also a trip down to the 50 here in momentum. So if we just took a look at a little bit of a shorter timeframe and we put up a 30 minute, it's not gonna look like my trade station charts. So I wouldn't necessarily pay much attention to the moving averages. But what I will show you is in a 30 minute chart basis. This now looks like a bit of a breakdown. If we go back to the beginning of the day with it starting and closing below, slightly below where it actually opened in the first 30 minutes. However, if we go back to Friday's action of last week, you can see that we got all kinds of support going down with the biggest support being 412. So essentially what I would do is this. If this can clear back over 415, 416, you have a really tight stop. If you wanna go a little wider, you have a 412 stop and see if it can get past this 417, 418 level. You do have to sit through like I said, the FOMC, but we're looking at a quarter percent regardless. And of course we'll talk about the bonds in a moment. If on the other hand this comes in lower than 415, then I think that basically this last half an hour, the high was 416,09, you can kind of use that last half an hour high as a stop to go short. And if it breaks down onto that 415 level or comes in slightly lower, I think you can anticipate and move at least down to 412 if you are a day trader or short term trader. If we go back to the daily chart just to look one more time, I would not necessarily get short though for any kind of big position. Most likely it would have to show me by the end of the day that it would close underneath the low of today at 415,27. And then you can use the high of the day, which is 417,61 as your stop area because then it's possible that the move is over. I mean, that's surely how mixed it is. Of course if we go to the cues, they, by the way, the formation you saw on the candlesticks on the spy chart is a classic inverted hamedoji which often means that there was force selling and not necessarily that people are losing their hope in the market. But here's another interesting key area. 328 in the cues is its 23 month moving average. That is key because that would show some level of expansion, not great expansion, but some level of expansion if we can get through that level. But in the meanwhile, you can see once again the resistance of today for 32363 tells me that that's a good area to look at if we close below today's low 421,10 tomorrow for more of a longer term or I'd say more of a intermediate term type potential short with a move down to the 50, momentum looking kind of similar to what we saw with the actual spy. And if we go to a 30 minute chart here, again, nevermind the moving averages, but just looking at the activity of over the last couple of days, today it actually closed higher than the low of the day number one. And number two is if we just go back to the low of this day, which was last week on Friday, this to me would be the more significant level. Short time, we break down under today's low. Let's just go through that again for 321. You're looking at possibly a nice little pop to the downside. We get through actually today's high and we can go back that again, which was about 323. It's possible this market's gonna continue to go up on a longer term if we go back to the daily with this type of formation against the Bollinger Band if we can take out the highs of Monday and we start break down under the lows of today, which again was 321, then I would say a move down to about 38, 310 is also very, very likely. And the last one to look at of course is the Dow Jones, which has been amazingly strong. This actually clear at 337 above its two year moving average, but it doesn't necessarily mean anything if we can't get everybody else to join in. But another 60 plus day high, this was an incredibly pivotal day. 60 plus day high reversal close near the lows. Again, the low today, 340, 26. If this breaks down under 340, 26, particularly if it closes under there tomorrow. And that's possible. We can see generally the way we look at these reversals is about a 10% move give or take anywhere between say five and 10% move lower. So you take the high, which is 342, 10% of that is about $34. Now all of a sudden you're talking about 308. That would be a dramatic move. 5% of course would give you more like 330, which or another test down to around the 50 day moving average. Okay, so that's it for the indices. However, I do have to show you very quickly IWM. Because IWM is not having it. This, where I just showed you all the other indices above their moving averages. This is actually not only below their moving averages, but with the death cross, it is actually in a bearish phase. This to me is very key and also something to watch will give you a clue as to whether spy and cues and diamonds can take you up or if they're going to look around at the Russell 2000 and say, uh-uh nevermind economy's too weak and the Fed has done too much damage and regardless of what they do on Wednesday, it's still going to hurt the market. If this can't get up through 181.81 and starts to break down under 170, I can tell you that on the 23 month moving average, which is all the way up here, we'd be much more concerned about the 80 month moving average. Cause that is a six to seven year business cycle and it would say that in terms of the small caps or the companies that are actually present within the United States manufacturing and creating goods within the United States are looking more recessionary and now it definitely spells some trouble. Of course, the momentum is agreeing with us here because you can see the momentum is now below the 50 and below the 200 day moving average with lots of room to the downside. And lastly, this is the TLTs. This is the 20 plus year long bonds. And often we say when they're doing well, it's usually in some kind of a recessionary time cause they can be a flight to safety. Instead, you can see today the yields actually went up. So the yields have been extremely volatile also in terms of the interest rates for the United States. This is anticipating possibly a more hawkish Fed but there's a divergence. And by that I mean what's interesting to look at is we broke down under the 50 day moving average and made a new low, a low we haven't seen since back in March not to mention the fact that we haven't quite filled the gap but we're almost close. The gap from this high here, which is at 102.52 and today's low, which was 102.85. If that doesn't get filled and this flips around you can thank the momentum because the divergence even though the momentum has come down to the 50 it's kind of sitting right there. So it's possible this was overdone, maybe an overreaction. If you put it all together, if this thing flips back around and the momentum gets better and this gap doesn't get filled, I would take this as sort of a one day wonder and some fear basically that came into the market. And again, if we go back to the indices so watch those spies, watch the range of today. New 60 plus day high, breaks down to the low of the day. Possibly going to get some follow through. How much follow through? Just look here. If this thing gets crunched or the hope gets too hawkish or recessionary fears or more banking failures come out. There you go. But I'd say forget about the news and just watch this chart, watch the spy and the cue chart that I just showed you and of course watch those wrestles because if they break down under 167 it'll be really hard to make a bullish case for any of the indices. And that's for me for today. Thanks so much for watching and bye for now.