 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network There are a few better feelings and going to Fandall sportsbook once again and seeing suddenly Majorly baseball money lines for actual games posted once again I know spring training a lot of you can be good at that if you have information and stuff like that not for me Personally, I want to go to the actual games that count. We finally have them for tomorrow We got money lines over at Fandall sportsbook No props posted as of yet, but we're gonna dive in to the money lines across these games Let you know where my model is seen value and my favorite best for Thursday over at Fandall This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Sonness. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm here to break down Thursday's opening day of major league baseball action Letting you know where my numbers are seeing value Across the opening slate of the year as I mentioned no strikeout props up yet I have models for money lines and strikeout props personally So those would be the primary things we discussed here on the show when we record Typically, I'll go through both in the morning because strikeout props are up then for tomorrow Nothing up as of yet So focusing just on money lines and one total that I like across Thursday's games for today But again a more expansive discussion coming up later on as we get more markets up for other podcasts throughout the year before We dive in to opening day though want to remind you this looking for cement basketball tournament discussion We talked to with dr. Ed Fing about the final four got his read on both those games Talked about the futures market talked about much more to get you ready for those that it's up now on the covering the spread podcast Also over on the Fandall YouTube page check that out there tomorrow. We're talking to Justin Carter of rotor baller getting his read and her hoop stats Getting his read on the women's final for talking about two really fun games LSE Virginia Tech We got South Carolina taking on Iowa that should be a whole lot of fun So we'll talk to Justin tomorrow get his read on how to bet those things how to research where to find good data and His read on those games futures markets and much more that'll be up on the covering the spread podcast feed I'll probably closer to noon or so then over on the Fandall YouTube page after that So go subscribe and if you like what you hear leave us a five-star rating because that does help us out a bunch Grand slams no hitters and double plays are back and there's no better place to get into the action than Fandall America's number one sportsbook. 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That is going to be an ESPN at seven o'clock That is the white socks and the astros and I actually do have some thoughts in this game in terms of betting It's Dylan seeds versus from Breval des the one thing I like in this game as of right now over a fandall sports book I like the astros money line at minus one fifty six the implied odds there are sixty point nine percent whereas my model Has the astros at 64% to win there are a couple reasons why I am higher than the astros in the market Right here. The first one is I think from Breval des is extremely good We saw what he did last year very good year for Valdez He kind of proved himself as being kind of a an elite tier guide despite not being a high strikeout picture now With that said Valdez did get more strikeouts across the second half of the year He did that by throwing more sliders across his final 14 starts in that time Strikeout rate didn't crease his skill interactivity array was 2.87 and he still allowed just a 17% fly ball right in that time Now he's facing the white socks here. The white socks are a very good team against lefties They had a 121 WRC plus Against lefties last year based on the guys who are currently on their active roster So it's a tough matchup for Valdez, but I think given the fly ball, right? He is a guy well positioned to handle this kind of offense Dylan sees today a fantastic job last year I was suppressing hard contact and that is a skill that is something we can bank on he is good at it And that does matter a lot But the white socks as a team struggle elsewhere Their defense is not that great. The bullpen is not great It's actually in it's worse than the Astros there and the Astros defense is good as well They get a bump being at home So I think that minus 156 in the money line here for the Astros I think that makes a lot of sense So the Astros to me one of my favorite bets of the day for opening day Minus 156 the money line there and a good spot to me to find some value So the Astros one of my favorite bets if you're tuning into them For the national TV game on Thursday night Across the other 14 games on Thursday There are five other spots where I see value in the money line That probably feels like a big number and it might be so I want to get that disclaimer other disclaimer here is that? Baseball was a struggle at times last year. You can find my record over at Action Network You can see the bets are recommended and it was not a great year for me by any means So I want to be transparent in that so you can decide Listen to what I'm saying decide. Do you agree or not? If you don't agree? That's fine. Totally understandable You know, I want you to make your own decisions listen to the rash now listen to the data behind it and decide Whether or not you agree but again the caveat here is baseball is not great last year Did get better second half of the year made some tweaks to the model at the all-star break Tried to refine that as a year went along August on did go very well Then made some additional tweaks to the to the model across the offseason So my hope is it's better this year, but I want to be up front in the fact that last year Definitely not my best year in terms of betting baseball Let's go through though where the new model is showing value for Thursday's games and again just keep in mind that this is not me you have to bet it But this is where I am seeing value personally One of my favorite bets is for the Padres against the Rockies the money line for the Padres in this game Is currently minus 210 and I like the Padres right there and that has shortened a bit from opening Because I believe it was minus 196 it open It's not minus 210, but even at the new number I am still showing value the applied odds of minus 210 67.7 percent whereas my model has 71 percent and That's primarily due to the non starting pitcher elements of the Rockies I don't mind they're my Marquez think he's a decent pitcher especially on the road But this bullpen for the Rockies may wind up being one of the worst in all of baseball The offense of the Rockies not great once you take them out of course field now The copy up there is that they're facing a lefty in Blake's now They're definitely better against lefties than they are against righties They have a minor or a 105 WRC plus against lefties again based on their current active roster And that helps in their face in snow is a guy who can be Super erratic so laying minus one or minus 210 on a guy who is volatile can Definitely come with risks, but I think the good thing here the thing that helps Snow and helps the Padres case here is that the Rockies are not a team that puts the ball in the air a ton They have like a 33 percent fly ball rate against lefties. So his issue is hard contact and fly balls Not gonna get a lot of those in this Rockies offense again The Rockies 33.2 percent their fly ball rate versus lefties last year based on the current active roster So it's tougher for them to exploit Snell's biggest issue I'm not sure they're the team to take advantage of Snell where he struggles most and that's why I'm okay Laying the minus 210 on the Padres here at home in their game against the Rockies That's the first one I want to recommend and probably my favorite across the entirety of the day Second money line and one to touched on was the Baltimore Orioles They are plus one away taking on the Boston Red Sox the Pitching matchup here Kyle Gibson against Corey Kluber and I do like the Orioles here at plus one away and a lot of that's because I'm pretty skeptical Kluber not his best year last year does keep locks and check Which means he's not gonna put a lot of free runners on base, but His contact suppression good But I think it needs to be a bit better to let up as many balls of play as he does to Truly get by about a 40% fly ball rates over his Final seven starts last year we cut back in his change of usage didn't see a lot of positive movement for Kluber Even if he made that tweak 4.2 skill interactive ERA in that time Contact suppression again good, but not great. I think the Orioles are a decent offense I'm not super high on the Red Sox offense personally So I think that this one should be a bit more towards the Orioles I've got the Orioles as like the slightest of favorites here basically a toss up 50.1% for me for the Orioles versus 48.1% implied at plus 108 I think that's a big enough edge for me to take it So I do like the Orioles here plus one away in the money line against the Red Sox against skeptical That's Red Sox offense skeptical of Kluber a bit higher and Kyle Gibson personally That's enough to put me over the edge and feel good about them there One game that I feel pretty good about is the Rangers against the Phillies right now looking at the the markets for that game Got the Rangers money line at minus 130 for the total of six and a half And I like the Rangers money line at minus 134 And I do like the over as well at six and a half and it might feel weird because it's Jacob DeGron versus Aranola don't expect a lot of runs in that situation Couple factors push me towards the over here The first one is that Jacob DeGrom not fully stretched out yet in his final tune-up star when 54 pitches He's around 34 in the star before that So we're not gonna get the full Jacob DeGrom experience here because he had that injury to kick off spring training The Rangers bullpen is fine I'd say they're below average more so than hideous which is why I'm not scared off the money line of the Rangers Despite the fact I don't expect a full DeGrom in this game Other reason I like the over in this game and also like the Rangers money line is that Aranola struggled a lot during spring training Now that could be a lot of things in spring training. Who cares? The reason I care a bit about it is because Nola had the fourth longest pace between pitches among qualified pitchers last year And that might mean that with the pitch clock being in play It could be a bigger adjustment for Nola than it would be with a lot of guys now That factor is not in my model because I could be wrong Maybe Nola just adjusts well that could very well happen So I'm not including that in my model But it definitely does not hurt to see guys with longer pace Potentially struggling to open up the year. So looking at this one right now I think that the Rangers should be a bit more heavily favored in this game again Minus 134 on the money line for the Rangers the implied odds there 57.3% I've got their win odds 59.3% is not a huge edge about two percentage points of value there But that's enough given how tough major league baseball can be to bet to take that the Concerns around Nola the concerns around the pitch count with him and the concerns around DeGrom's length are why I like the over Six and a half at minus 105 I think the roof will probably be closed there tomorrow because of coming rain It was 68 degrees outside should be 70 with the dome closed. So That won't affect things too much But I think the over six and a half at minus 105 and the Rangers money line both solid ways to go for the Rangers and the Phillies Final two money lines that I like here for opening day are both on underdogs The first one is the Cardinals there at plus 102 right now taking on the Blue Jays The other one is I might have to sell you on this the A is at plus 194 Against Shohei Otani. Let's start things off with what I think should be the easier sell here And that is the Cardinals money line at plus 102 against the Blue Jays facing off against Alec Minoa the Cardinals facing or starting Miles Nicholas here Nicholas I don't think it's a bad pitcher. He's been he's gotten good results his entire time the big leagues largely by Suppressing hard contact now last year. I think that he wanted to shift his approach up He wanted to get more strikeouts So he changed things up and he did it did hurt his ground ball rates But his strikeout rate did increase which means he's letting a fewer balls in play fewer or less variants involved there That is a good thing and I think that although I prefer hard contact suppression I'd rather let up no contact. So it's a step I think it's kind of a neutral step for Nicholas But at least it was not a step backwards to go with a bit higher strikeout approach versus letting up more balls in play as far as Minoa He really leaned on his sinker down the stretch across his final 20 starts his hard hit rate allowed 34% that's pretty good But it's not good enough for you think that is 2.24 era across the full season is Sustainable his expected era which factors in the amount of hard contacting I think does the best job of factoring in the amount of expected amount of hard contact Expected era 3.31 more than a full run higher than his actual era And that's part of this but also Minoa has a very slow pace He had the second slowest pace in the majors last year among starting pitchers So again, I'm not factoring that in but it doesn't hurt when I already show value on the opposing side This Cardinals offense. I think it's very good. So is there defense with no one are not about there So I think that We should be a bit higher in the Cardinals here. I think it should be favored I had the Cardinals 53% to win the implied odds at plus 102 Under 50% so I didn't the Cardinals are a good bet here at plus 102 on the money line to take down the Toronto Blue Jays Again, the final one is the A's. I understand if you don't want to go here. They're facing Shohei Ohtani I do not enjoy betting against Shohei Ohtani. It is not fun It is typically not super profitable either to do so because he's a very good pitcher a very good player But Ohtani actually had the longest pace between pitches in the league last year So again, that introduces more uncertainty and when the A's money line is plus 194 uncertainty is a good thing Volatility is a good thing because if there's more uncertainty It's tougher to have a big number on the money line at plus 194 the implied odds there are 34 percent I have the A's win odds at 38 percent 38 percent is not high and I think that's worth mentioning for sure But I can live with that gap Kyle Muller opening day starter for the A's kind of got trashed for being the opening day starter a lot of Twitter hate on Kyle Muller asking, you know, why is this guy the starter? It's not his fault You know, the A's don't have the best rotation but Muller. I do think it's pretty talented He made three starts in the majors last year did not go well But good numbers in triple a both last year and in 2021 So I am very okay with this even if it's not fun to bet against Ohtani again The number there plus 194 on the A's money line. I have 38 percent implied odds there 34 percent Think that is a a fair way to view things So to recap the places where I'm showing value for tomorrow are the Aster's money line at minus 156 I got an edge on the A's a plus 194 Cardinals a plus 102 the pythons a minus 210 the Rangers minus 134 along with the over in that game Six and a half at minus 105 and the Orioles add plus 108 in their game against the Red Sox Again, it is a delight to have money lines to look at once again on Friday's show We'll be back here talking baseball once again I'll have strikeout props to that one usually strikeout props last year Fand will going up pretty early in the morning I would open things up When I get back from the gym in the morning, they typically be posts are ready So we should have strikeout props to discuss In future shows just not here for today because they weren't up quite in time to get them on the show Once again, if you're looking for some college basketball talk on the men's and women's side The men's one already up over on the covering the spread podcast feed in the Fando YouTube page Women's one coming tomorrow with Justin Carter getting his read on those games Make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread to get those as they are posted And if you like what you hear leave us a rating or a view again five stars We appreciate those of you who have done so already if you've got any questions for me I am on Twitter at Jim Sonnis J. I. M. S. A. N. N. E. S. You can also follow the Fand will podcast network at Fand will podcast baseball is back It is a delight to be talking about it with you once again here looking for doing it throughout this entire MLB season This has been covering the spread right here on the fan duel podcast network