 Welcome to the channel. This is reliable Rudy in this video We'll be making our part three for Walt Disney Company, but we're focused on the stock analyzer tool We'll be plugging numbers. We'll be hopping over to Macro trends and using that to help us kind of plug in numbers and also using some of the data that we've retreat Acquired in the part one and part two Disney videos But before I get into this, I am not a licensed financial advisor Everything in this video contains only my opinion and it's for entertainment purposes only Also have no individual holding in Walt Disney except for potentially in my VT Vanguard total stock market index fund So I have nothing to gain with the information that I'm presenting. I'm just stating my opinion Okay, so getting into this video. We're going to start with the revenue growth So I'm over here on macro trends. I have Disney's revenue from 2010 to 2022 pulled up now as stated in the last When I went over the orange report and they had 26% growth right here And I'm going to zoom in so we can see this stuff a little bit better Okay, so you can see here's that 26% revenue growth that they that they had now as I stated that it was possible that from 2021 and even in the 2020 that they had easy comparable years To compare against so you can see the following years after negative 40 negative 20s and negative 13 They posted 44% 26 34 23 and 26 Do I think this large spike in revenue is sustainable going into the future for a 10-year analysis? Remember my job is to be conservative. I want to Bacon as much margin of safety as I possibly can So going to this revenue growth. I was very focused on the financials of Disney through my first couple videos from the data From 2006 to 2018 now you can see down here We see the growth metrics that they had now they had a couple Double-digit growths, but for the most part consistent single-digit growth and on the higher single-digit a little bit mid couple decreases here, but pretty consistent growth from 20 to 2006 all the ways to 2018 So do I think this growth right here is sustainable? I'm not going to be plugging in 20% plus revenue growth but for Disney it's a matter of how long is it going to take them to get back on track to those Consistent years of profitability growth and etc. Stuff like that So for this first one for Disney we're going to be a little bit on the wider side I want to get a wide range to get a feel for For some of these projections, so we're going to start with 5% This is just saying 10-year analysis. They're going to consistently be able to put up 5% I do think this is probably on the low side, but that's why at the low assumption We'll use 10 and 15 so wider range margin right here compared to what I normally do But as I said, I just want to get a feel for some of these projections right here So next we have profit margin now I should zoom in so you guys can see this a little bit better We will zoom into 150% you guys should be able to see that pretty good right there So now we're going to go over to margins and Right here we can see the profit margins of the company now same scenario that those last Three years if we go back to the everything money tab here's their five-year profit numbers now I've already stated that these last three years are definitely skewing their profit margins There's no question about it that the last three years have definitely hurt them So I'm not really as focused in plugging numbers in base off of this but in the end I still want to be conservative so looking from 2010 to 2018 we can see we got a range Consistent growth all the ways up so that ranges from 9% to 16% now I can play around with these profit margins. However, I see fit But it would make sense to use numbers for when they get back on track in between 9 to 16% So I guess I'm gonna run a couple different variations of this But for starters they are you can see right here. We're not near that yet their last quarter They put up what was it six point four percent? But the year before they had five point three percent as we showed in the earnings report the second video for Disney So how long is it going to take them to get back on track? Even at this range so for a low assumption. I still want to Try bacon as much margin of safety as possible for a so for a profit margin that I feel comfortable with would be You know probably six to eight percent on the low side So we'll do a couple different metrics of this will use six ten and 14 now 14 I feel is being very generous saying that they're still far Decent a ways away from getting back on track with this. So 14 is probably on the higher side Now for free cash flow margins, we'll use these same numbers six ten and fourteen This is going to be a wide number right here for sure Now PE I'm going to match the PE to the revenue growth that I am getting that I'm getting generated to So for a five percent revenue growth, I'm probably only willing to pay like a 12 maybe a 14 But then you got to add into account Disney they have a large moat there's going to be buyers for Disney in general Because it's Disney because they have all these great brands so I could bump that up So I said 12 the 14 range for a five percent. Okay, I'll give that a Probably a 15 to 18 range. So on the low side here, we're going to use 16 Now for 10% I'm probably willing to pay that that's 16 to 18 range But because it's Disney we're going to add in that extra bit of PE that we're willing to pay for Disney. So we'll use 16 22 and 28 Now for a price-free cash flow, we're going to use these same numbers I'm not worried about about the disconnect right here I'm just worried about getting a baseline projection out there now I want a 15% return for Disney because if I'm not getting a 15% return, I'm not going to change my investing strategy I'm going to continue dollar cost averaging into broadly diversified index funds like vt or vx us I know there's other options out there, but those are the two that I prefer So I want that 15% return. We're gonna hit analyze here I can see if I believe these top numbers right here Disney getting right back on track right away. Okay This is definitely interesting current price of a hundred and twenty three for a 15% return I can buy this at two hundred and twenty three dollars for a 15% return But how long is it going to take them to get back on track for these numbers now? I can also go in and tweak some of these numbers now if I were to look for Disney From a range in between this and kind of tighten these numbers down right here So I can see if I believe these middle assumptions these middle assumptions are are okay Now I could also lower some of these these PE metrics down to add more margin of safety And let's see what this looks like with a 14 18 and 22 14 18 22 That's going to drastically change where I want to buy the stock. So how much margin of safety do I want to bake into this? So nonetheless If we go back to the metrics tab We can see Disney was trading under a hundred dollars right here If I was plugging in these numbers for my analysis for Disney I'm I'm definitely starting to get attracted to this stock So I'm gonna hit this and we're gonna add this to a watch list right here Stay on this page and we're going to tweak some of these numbers down now We're gonna take out this low revenue growth and we're going to tighten this down in between these numbers We're gonna use 10 to 14 now We're also gonna play around these profit margins a little bit now on that low side if we go back to profit margins We can see I like this this 9% baseline I think it's very realistic for them to get back on track at this 9% profit margin level over a 10 year analysis So we're gonna use that for our baseline start on the low side now Right here, we're going to use 11 and we're going to use 13 and we're gonna use the same margins for free cash flow Now for this revenue growth, I'm going to pay a little bit higher right there. So I'm gonna use 18 You know for for Disney we are going to add a little bit extra incentive there. We're gonna use 20 22 and 24 now I know that's higher than my first assumption, but for the sake of this initial Model right here. We're going to use 20 22 and 24 We're gonna hit analyze now. I can see if I believe these high numbers. I'm definitely interested in the stock now middle assumptions Disney was trading in between here if I believe these numbers right here for Disney to get back on track I'm definitely interested in the stock right here But this is going to complete my stock analyzer tool. I have a decent idea of Where I want and I believe I had mentioned before I was pretty close to buying Disney I'm not even gonna lie and you're gonna see that on our next video when I pull up the chart and I have not changed anything with my chart and going into this video When I pulled up the chart, I seen everything that I had laid out and I was very interested I almost started a position in Disney But you guys will be able to see that information on the next video I hope you guys enjoy the content here and we'll see you on the next one