 This is covering the spread part of the fan dual podcast network We have got two massive game of fives coming up tonight We got the 76ers in the Celtics the Suns and the Nuggets both tied at two games apiece We're gonna break down bold those game five with Brandon gandula and pick his brain on this week's AT&T Byron Nelson welcome on into covering the spread. That's right here on the fan dual podcast network and Number fire calm. My name is Jim Saunas. I am a senior writer and analyst for a number fire Joined here as mentioned by Brandon gandula check him out on Twitter at gandula 13 You can find his work over at number fire calm Brandon to big games coming out tonight. How you doing today? Good. Yeah game five is always fun for this one tonight We got you know the figure out who takes the edge here usually it's the home teams, but Never know that's why we tune in and I'm excited that frankly the the Lakers won Yeah, it's definitely not because of deep-seated Dislike towards any certain players in the world and I'm sure you know just genuine You're happy for them. You're happy for their success. I am happy for the fact that I recommended the money line the fact that LeBron James still doing his thing, which I think does not get enough credit but they're gonna get some good games tonight and Windham Clark. Oh, yeah Kind of having me in a good mood. So I'm just a little more optimistic about everything So you mentioned him as a first-round leader here on the podcast But for your golf digest picks he was your win bet correct this week Yeah, I thought I also thought I had him as a sprinkle on the show As a first-round leader 85 to 1 he was yeah, I wrote it down as okay, my notes. Oh, it doesn't matter I might have written it down wrong, but hopefully People took advantage and you know, it is what it is I have a golf contest that I do it's kind of like one and done except it's not one and it's not done You get to use you get limited uses per golfer and I had Windham as my alternate in case one of I think it was Rory Cantlay or someone else had withdrawn before the event and Should have had him in there originally did some men for the fourth round don't get as much money for a fourth round sub But you know, we'll take it out of the way But wish he had done that a couple weeks ago, but it may be a lot happier But still happy for Windham Clark for the win Scotty Schaeffler the big favorite for this week at the AT&T Byron Nelson as mentioned we'll talk about that Later on today as well But first a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to the covering the spread podcast feed wherever you get your podcast And don't forget if you want a video version You can check us out over on the Fandall YouTube page as well hit the thumbs up button there Hit subscribe on the Fandall YouTube page or subscribe on the covering the spread podcast feed I mean let's say five star rating if you like what you hear The NBA playoffs are in full swing You can get on the action right now or a Fandall sportsbook right now all customers get a no sweat same game parlay every weekend What do you bet the NBA playoffs? 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So with the series now back in Boston, how do you see things playing out here in game five? Yeah, the fact that it's back in Boston is Definitely something that we need to note as we all know home court advantage is a thing It's always especially ramped up in the playoffs But Joellen Bede is listed as questionable, but I mean he's I mean almost certainly going to play here And you mentioned that comeback bid from the Celtics in game four 76ers Holding them off and frankly what is a game based on the underlying data despite like the point gap in the comeback? That the Celtics should have won around 70% of the time. So that's definitely telling They have the better, you know, I guess overall like the series is pretty Pretty even statistically if you look again at the four factors Which I I tend to look at a lot as the series progressed because so reactionary sort of game to game and then the four factors help us figure out What is actually going on underneath the surface? But the clear gap like the three other four facts that I managed by say what the four factors are Effective field goal percentage, which just accounts for the fact that three point shots are worth more than two point shots turnover rate Offensive rebounding rate and free throws made per field goal attempts So basically the ways that your offensive possessions can end So it's really helpful to figure out how teams are scoring what they're doing what they're doing well What they're doing better than most teams, but so the turnover rate offensive offensive rebounding rate and free throw numbers Pretty similar the big gap here for Boston is an effective field goal percentage. They are leading this round In effective field goal percentage at fifty eight point one percent that leads the entire Playoff round by full a full three point eight percentage points the seventy sixers or six out of the eight teams in effective field goal percentage And Boston also then leads pretty easily this round in offensive rating So that's like the main gap despite the fact that this is a two-two series a lot of the underlying data says that it should not be Should be three one basically by this point and since 2016 if you remove the bubble year home teams entering game five tied two to two I have won seventy two and a half percent of the time Covered almost fifty seven and a half percent of the time But if you look only the teams in these situations that are actually favored which you know Boston is Those squads have a seventy five percent win rate covered fifty point three percent of time now I think the spread here is Pretty accurate So that's tough, but I'm fine With the money line at minus three hundred for Boston. I think that's the right play. I don't really see how they Lose it's been taken a lot of heroics from you know, James Harden Philly, I mean to me not getting a whole lot of help from the rest of their squad aside from the studs So That sort of gets magnified on the road for the most part and the role players play better at home Typically, so everything's kind of in line for the Celtics to take control of the series The data says that they should have you know, they should basically be in a closeout situation tonight By this point. So that's my main play and if I had to pick anything else and I don't mind this But I'm probably not gonna get there myself The Celtics team over is one ten and a half. That's minus one ten on Fandalsports book I think they can put up points in this game And I think that they might be able to pull away Down the stretch It's always tough with these playoff games because everything feels tight And slower paced and the the spreads are really like Efficient and it's hard to find like big gaps because everything's you know, just again magnified But there's also such big blowout potential that I think we might actually see one of those tonight where the Celtics do rule Despite that, I'm not comfortable with the spread Sure, so I'm just going with the Celtics money line first and foremost here the implied odds at minus editor 75 percent So 75 percent implied odds the Celtics win this game. I'm sorry 79.3 percent for me. So yeah, so a bit above that 4 percentage points of value at this point in the season it's pretty good so that that is definitely an edge there and That is based on your numbers. I think if you're like watching this game You know and be didn't look like himself yet, especially down the stretch in that game So I think that you add on a little bit of like eye test anecdotal stuff on top of what your numbers say I feel like that should make you feel a bit better about it even than where you're at yeah, I mean honestly, it's just like James Harden's doing a lot of heavy lifting and he's capable of doing that But I mean they almost didn't win this game like in a game for they almost didn't win that which would have been a comeback loss So you say well, you know, they probably shouldn't let it get to that point anyway But frankly the underlying data for for this the series this this game just it's kind It's still kind of close, but but frankly like the shooting gap is going to be hard to maintain Unless they can slow it on Boston's offense and find ways To shoot better There's there's not a lot of turnovers necessarily, especially in like that game for and so we saw a ton of points and it feels like you know It's just gonna be like a high scoring game. I don't really I think it's gonna scale back a bit Sure, I'm in this one just because I think each team had like an offensive rating over 125 for game four alone. So that's probably not gonna happen again And for that reason the more balanced scoring from Boston, I think we're gonna see Boston get out here kind of early this one might feel like it's a little bit out of hand by halftime I could be wrong, but I do think that Boston wins for a lot of different reasons Okay, so Brandon likes the Celtics money line at minus 300 and the team total potentially about 110 and a half as well You talked a lot there about home court home court It's in big here for these sons in the Nuggets so far The home team is for know in this series now the series Shits back to Denver where the Nuggets are five and a half point favorite total here to 27.5 Nikola Yolkich will be able to play here despite the confrontation in a game number four How do you see things playing out here at the series shifting back to Denver? Yeah, the Yolkich Avoiding suspension is Absolutely crucial because the Nuggets are basically one of if not the best teams in basketball with Yolkich active one of the worst without him and You know, it's true that the Nuggets are sweeping the four factors, but it's it's pretty close throughout all of them The effective field goal percentage for Denver fifty four point three percent for Phoenix fifty four point two percent Not a whole lot of turnovers here either. I heard I think on the broadcast that the Suns were able to Increase the pace with Chris Paul sidelined Hasn't I mean it we kind of see it, but it's not it's not like super Relevant or sticky, so I'm not like adjusting for that, but I have this spread at five point two I don't think that's enough for me to want to get to either side. It would actually be a slight lean Toward the Suns if anything, but I'm not really there What I like most is the the total in this game combined these teams are averaging 226 Points per game have really good offensive ratings. They're both top three behind only the Celtics in this round But again going back to those four factors looking at how these teams are actually playing I see an average of 223 expected points for This game or first for this series You know if you look at the pace, it's like it's it's it's a solid Output, but it's not like super fast. It's not super slow. We've seen this game or sorry this series sort of ebb and flow a little bit I'm gonna say drastically, but noticeably with the pace on a on a per game basis I think the offensive ratings were just Unsustainable in game four and for that reason, I think we're seeing You know, I guess this is still a pretty typical total for this series, but for me It's the under is where we're at Denver likes to slow things down at home I mean, they're they're pretty slow anyway, but 23rd at home pace on the season For me the under is the best play in this game and under as you mentioned two twenty seven and a half That was I believe two twenty eight yesterday So I suppose some movement towards the under in this game And is minus one oh six on the under right now When you get situations where you hear on the broadcast about the pace without Chris Paul and it doesn't mess up with the data Are you do you worry about that at all or are you okay ignoring it and trusting that it's more so anecdotal? And you can kind of just trust the data is saying because we have large samples on them without Chris Paul I think so it's not like yeah, you're not like you're making stuff up out of thin air Yeah, so I mean it's one of those situations to where like pace And we see this with the NFL to like There's only there's only such a range of pace that we can get because there's a play clock in the NFL There's a shot clock in the NBA There's like a floor baked in to every game of possessions per game But we're also not going to see teams just completely lift the lid and go seven seconds or less In the playoffs and just start chucking it So it's while we need to know what the the pace expectations are They're still relatively reasonable with or without Chris Paul even if you try to adjust for the intent to play a little more up tempo for me these teams are Kind of destined for and under after the offensive output that they had in game four. It's not as simple as You know, they went over in game four. They're gonna go under in game five There's more to it than that but for me, there's a lot pointing to The under in this game and I think that another thing that we can kind of figure out or sorry look at to figure out is Just because one team wants to play fast. It does not mean that the other team does play fast Teams tend to play more or less at their own pace. They're not that influenced I think that's a an easy misnomer that we can kind of inject into our estimations pace, you know is is a tricky thing and even in a series of full seven games You can see pace waiver by about 10 possessions per 48 minutes in the same series. So it's hard to pin down You know single game shooting efficiency single game offensive rating hard to pin down, but if we look at these larger samples I'm confident to say that the right the smarter play is the under in this game Okay, so the two bets that Brandon likes here in the NBA are the Sun's Nuggets under 227.5 at minus 106 And the Celtics money line at minus 300. Let's shift focus now and talk about the PGA It is the AT&T Byron Nelson for this week at TPC Craig Ranch We've got just two years of data at this course Brandon. So before we talk with the field What can we learn about this course from the two years that is hosted thus far? Yep part 71 wider fairways larger greens winning scores have been 25 and 26 under par both won By Kyung Hoon Lee or cage Lee depending on you know where you see it same same person or caught line with no No hyphen Got that one today. That was new Sometimes there there's a rare like K space Lee or like just cage no periods. It's tough But keep going, you know, but I don't want to I don't want to disparage cage Lee cuz I like him and yeah So he's not for some reason I won't classify him as a spreadsheet runner. So no, it's a spreadsheet and richer Yeah, that works Cut lines have been at least five under par here. So basically what I'm getting at is You got a score now. How do you score? Well, the driving itself is a bit downplayed Which is always interesting because that means that you know, look like let's be real That's just there's a subset of pro golfers who are Not going to win whenever you have to bomb it off the tee It's not the case this week Scores with scores going low. That means that it's easier which means that For example, there is basically one superstar in the field this week only one guy in the top 15. That's gaudy Schaeffler His advantage to score on say a tough par four and make birdie while everyone else is making par bogey or you know To make par and everyone else make a bogey that kind of thing that gets mitigated if everything is scoreable Because these guys are all really good It's it's when things get tough that the best players can separate because their games have no holes and they tend to have distance off the tee so That's going to minimize the gap for Schaeffler on the field, which we'll get to in a second in terms of the value, but It's I don't want to say it's just a putting contest because there is a bit more that goes into it But when scores are 25 under par to win you have to be putting well and Yes, you have to get birdie chances But it's not as hard to get birdie chances even if you're not the best off the tee or you have phenomenal iron play because the greens are larger, so It's a pretty big shift from what we saw last week with the designated field a tougher setup this week it's going to be a little bit more wide open and While Schaeffler is a heavy heavy favorite He's the only again He's the only golfer in the top 15 in the field in the official world golf rankings now that Jordan speaks with Drew but He's a fascinating case this week. So let's talk about Schaeffler right now He is plus 350 a fan dual sportsbook He opened it plus 450 then shortened to four to one before a speed withdrew that may have been someone getting advanced notice on speed potentially but You get it when you look at Schaeffler compared to this field So you mentioned that there are more golfers who can compete here because it's a bit of a birdie fest Does that mean that Schaeffler is not a value here at plus 350? It's such a sick question though No, he's no longer a Value at plus 350 for me Okay, I have his win odds at 21.7 percent, which is basically plus 361 So I had seen value on him at five to one I think he went to four and a half to one and then I went to bed and now he's three and a half to one so Look if you want to bet Schaeffler I don't think it's super egregious That's like a rounding error in in how things go with with modeling Something like this many times could run it again, and he could be a slight value. So like yeah, it just sort of is what it is People would hate seem to hate Heavy favorites are values anyone basically shorter than 10 to 1 People think that they're automatically bad plays and that's not how it works Yeah, they bet them you look like betting splits and like different stuff and the highest handle is always on or the Highest ticket count is always on Scottie Schaeffler or whatever it may be. Yeah, I mean, but they still bet it There's there's a reason that he's Right at shorter odds than he has been correct. So I mean why is that and like yeah, it's cool It's it's hip. It's fun to get the long shots. It's like when you get the Wydenham Clark It's phenomenal, but it's not just a matter of The favorites always being overvalued in my model. He is close to a value I'm not gonna bet him, but I wouldn't really argue with anyone who who wants to so But frankly if I'm not betting Schaeffler, there's not a whole lot else. I like this week. It's kind of tough Let's say hypothetically someone is out there and has access to a 4 to 1 Would you take that? Is that long enough big enough value? You're a 21 point 70 said that'd be 20% implied Is that big enough for you? Yeah, that'd be good. Okay, so you can find a Schaeffler 4 to 1 or if he lengthens You know Wednesday sometime we do sometimes see Golfers lengthen overnight Tuesday to Wednesday if they're not getting enough action there So if he does lengthen to 4 to 1 that'd be a spot to fire on Schaeffler there What about other outrides if Schaeffler is sucking out 21.7% of the win equity? It may be tough to find value elsewhere So any other outrides you like this week Brandon? Yeah, so I have this on my spreadsheet But I'm gonna pull this up and get a better view of it because I haven't really looked at like the top down So we have two Manhattan at 13 to 1 Jason day 17 Tom Kim 17 Hideki Matsuyama on KH Lee or 24 and that that's that's it so we get six golfers shorter than 32 to 1 Now that's not influencing my picks. I just I haven't really looked at the board like that yet So I was just curious to see Where things were because I'm not finding a lot of value in the spreadsheet But yeah, the one name that does pop in the one name that I feel really good with is Jason day at 17 to 1 He is third in the field inch jokes game t-degree Over the past 50 rounds according to data golf, which does adjust for field strength. He's third in putting as well That's that's pretty phenomenal and even if you're not like modeling things out and you see someone top three in both of those Probably not the worst bet But you know for me, he is he is actually one of the best betting values of the week if not the best Miss the cut and t-51 at the Byron Nelson at TPC Craig Ranch Which I think might scare some people off although his odds have shortened since yesterday Although I had numbers with speed so I don't really know where he was But he's gonna throw the resurgence right now coming off a missed cut too So I think that this number could even be shorter if he Had a look a better super recent form better course form right now Jason day 17 to 1 is the best bet of the week for me and for my model and I feel Good and I like that number that once I got past 15 to 1 I feel like I can actually Enjoy betting sometimes if it's like 12 to 1 I'm like I see value, but I don't love it But yeah, just because the I mean one of the funnest parts of golf betting is Getting access to these bigger numbers and these bigger returns 17 to 1 for Jason day. I think it makes sense In every way imaginable. So with day Do you think that the fact that he has a long injury history and has like a couple events Benefits spotty is that why people may be hesitant to bet him given that that track record or what do you think is keeping him from being shorter than 17 to 1 here. Well, I mean he is moving down Where did I have him? I have before speed with true. He was 21. Yeah So I mean he is 21 man. I mean he is moving down. Yeah Don't know how much of that exactly is with Just a result of speed, but right look if shuffler is getting that down then clearly It's it's a matter of like people looking at Scotty shuffler Cheerlead and coming off a good week cagely two-time winner. He's probably getting some some action there so it It's probably just a matter of like Jason day. Let me see exactly. It's pull up day here So, I know he missed the cut at the Wells Fargo T 39 at the Masters. So he hasn't basically had a top like a great result since March. So here's like a perfect example of Why I like my model even if sometimes I don't 100% agree with it or bet exactly what it's telling me to or only bet, you know you know Jason day is golfing a lot better We're noticeably better than a 17 to 1 number even if he's been not at the forefront of our minds and What the model does is say like this is how good this guy's been and here's prayer Here's where he should be for this week based on like the course adjustments that I used to so like It's I think it's a it's a matter of if we were back in March and he was top 10ing everything Yeah, he would be 12 to 1 in this field. Yeah, for sure. If not sure yeah Yeah, so if you can get chef or 4 to 1 or longer take that if not Jason day is 17 to want a good value By Brandon's numbers. What about the non-outrights anything else catching your eye there? Well, I do have to two more guys I consider for our rights because I do see value Taylor Montgomery at 46 and Our guy Tom Hoagie at 51. Oh, buddy. We're in. Let's go. Basically basically inverses of Iron play Montgomery pretty rough iron play But this is not the course where you need to be extremely precise with your irons now That's always tricky because you need to go low and so you gonna have a hard time making birdies if your irons are bad But these are larger greens Driving's not super important in a short game is really good. If this does turn into it like a pure cutting putting contest Montgomery just one of the best in the world right now with the putter Hoagie a second in the field in irons 24th and putting over the past 50 rounds hasn't played since the Zurich, but You know his putter gets hot So if I'm realistically not gonna get the Schaeffler and I like Jason day I can also throw in Montgomery and Hoagie And feel good with those potential returns because I do see value on them And they are long enough to where you can still be happy if you have let's say you have Schaeffler even let's say let's say you take Schaeffler You have Schaeffler four to one with Montgomery and Hoagie if Schaeffler wins You're still feeling good about that and you're still having a profitable week You're not overexposing yourself to one marker where only one person can win So even if it is a don to being Schaeffler adding those two guys as Montgomery at 46 and Hoagie at 50 Those will make sense. So what about the non-outrights are Hoagie and Montgomery popping for you there or focusing more so on other guys? They are for top 10s as well and basically anytime I bet a What I would call a long shot once you get outside like the 40 to one range I feel like it's a long shot and I don't always just bet them for top 10s I have to make sure the numbers right. I do I do think the numbers right for both of them for top 10s But other options in the top 10 market Tom Kim is plus 210. I Does not need to be long off the tee this week He's fourth in in strokes can't eat a green among the field over the past 50 rounds Adam had win to top 10 is much more of a fun top 10 at plus 500 short hitter but accurate in a great putter 29th and ball striking 15th in combined short came over the past 50 rounds and Then a top 20. I like Dylan Wu plus 410 consecutive top 25s He's really had the irons in putting Working well for him and those are the two stats where you can gain the most strokes. So a good profile to top 20 for Dylan Wu at plus 410 So Dylan Wu plus 410 for a top 20 Adam had win plus 500 for a top 10 Tom Kim plus 210 for a top 10 if you want a Montgomery and Hoagie brand So they did like those as well Montgomery is plus 410 for a top 10 Hoagie Plus 450 for a top 10 for this week Any final thoughts for you Brandon before we close up shop here for a fun NBA Tuesday and for the AT&T Byron Nelson Yeah, probably maybe that sounds like too many top 10s to get after but the thing is The top 10 market at least in my experience is there's value on like four or five names and then everyone else is it Not a good value. So like that kind of balances out So but you know, it's never I was like to give us some options, too And I Think that it's gonna be a good week for some guys who Look, I think chef her makes a lot of sense But I think we're gonna see some other names in the mix for this week and that's always fun Alrighty well that is all that we have here for today on covering the spread Brandon Want to thank you as always swinging by breaking down your thoughts on NBA and PGA. Good luck to you this week Go hit a Wyndham Clark winner again, despite. I don't think he's in the field, but go go We're crossing our fingers once again and good luck to you tonight in the NBA, too Thank you. Thank you Find a brand-new on Twitter. I could do a 13 and find his work over at number fire calm I am on Twitter at Jim Sonnis J-I-M-S-A-N-N-E-S do not forget to subscribe to the covering the spread podcast feed wherever you get your podcasts We'll talk to you all once again tomorrow. This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network