 I am bullish on Bitcoin and I remain to be bullish on Bitcoin as long as we remain above 8000 to 8200. This is a market where I want to be long. I don't want to chase rallies. I want to try to be as comfortable as possible with my size. Bitcoin is going to suffer in a recession. For the same reason that gold suffered in the last recession. What's going on guys? Welcome to our weekly crypto market roundup. I'm Giovanni and today with us two veteran traders, Alessio Rastani and Peter Brandt. Welcome to our show guys. In the last few days we have been witnessing an impressive rally in the crypto market with Bitcoin raising about 20% since the beginning of the year and a lot of altcoins like Bitcoin SV and Dash posting impressive gains. So in this kind of situation it's very easy to get caught up by FOMO and make very bad decisions. On the other hand, you cannot miss out on these kinds of opportunities. So what do you think guys? What's the wisest decision that a trader can do in this kind of situation? I am an advocate of Bitcoin. I don't do the altcoins. I'm a Bitcoin guy. I think Bitcoin is eventually going to be the legacy coin. My really only interest is in Bitcoin. I own Bitcoin. I think there is a chance that Bitcoin has bottomed and we have left a lot of the sold out bulls behind and there's nothing more bullies to a market than a lot of sold out bulls and my sense is a lot of the Bitcoin maximalists somehow were shaken out between December 2017 and the recent lows and they're going to be a supporting factor in the market. So I think there is definitely a chance that we've seen the low. I'm a chartist and my charts are constructive and perhaps the rally as we have right now will have fits and starts while corrections along the way. But I see Bitcoin going higher. I see it going much, much higher and so from my perspective this is a market where I want to be long. I don't want to chase rallies. I want to try to be as comfortable as possible with my size and hang on for dear life. Alessio, what's your view on the situation? Like we saw this rally and a lot of people are forming and are homoforming in. Do you think it's time to step back and wait and try to make a decision based on rationality? What's your approach to the situation? I kind of disagree that we've reached FOMO. I think we haven't even got there yet. I think Peter and yourself, Giovanni, you're on the right track when you said that I think majority people actually are in disbelief. I think a lot of the majority of the people in the Bitcoin community at the moment are in the disbelief stage or at least they were a few days ago. So I've been bullish now on Bitcoin at least for a couple of weeks since beginning of this month as a matter of fact, January. A week ago actually I posted a video saying pretty much what Peter just said that I think we've likely bottomed. About over a week ago now I posted another video that I said basically if Bitcoin goes over 7600, that's it. This is a bullish move and I'll be bullish. So I've been bullish now for at least for a few weeks. What I would disagree with Peter is on this point and actually, again, I see where Peter is coming from and I think there is a high probability we've bottomed here. I still think the probability is not that high. I think, I mean it's high but it depends how you measure it. I would say it's about 65% probability that we've probably bottomed here. I would like to be more bullish than that. The only reason is we've seen these kind of breakouts before. We've seen how Bitcoin on the weekly chart breaks out of a channel, breaks above the moving average like the 21 moving average. And then a few weeks afterwards it kind of fails and moves back down again. Now I'm not saying that's what's going to happen here. I don't think it's going to happen like that. But again, it's a probability and as I know Peter is a probabilities guy as I am as well, I would say, look, we just need to see how this weekly, we need another week of positive momentum pushing it above the 21 week average. I am bullish on Bitcoin and I remain to be bullish on Bitcoin as long as we remain above 8000 to 8200. 8200 is a weekly 21 moving average. We need to remain above that at least for another couple of weeks, at least another week I'd say. And if we do that, great. I think Bitcoin has a good chance of lifting off here and going a significantly higher. But as long as it remains above 8000, 8200, 8000 is the cutoff point for me. Thanks, Alessio. Peter, do you have anything to add on what Alessio just said? Yeah, no, I agree. I don't think we foam old yet. The sentiment that I pick up on social media is the same people that kept for years talking about to the moon, to the moon, to the moon. I'm not saying no, it's not time yet. It's not that they're bullish. It's not that they're bearish. It's just that they don't think it's time. They all now want to sit and buy a break at back to 6,000 or 5,000. And they've missed the bottom. And during that bottom, I think you had a lot of people accumulate who were strong hands. The weak hands are out. The strong hands own it. What is the best way for someone to make money with crypto at the moment, according to you, Peter? Well, I think it's kind of a loaded question, Giovanni. I mean, that's the problem is a lot of the relatively new people who have come in to speculative markets because of Bitcoin. Their attitude is, how do I make money now? That's the wrong question. I mean, the right question is, how do you position yourself to make money over a longer period of time? And in the meanwhile, I keep your risk at the margins. And it's the immediacy I want to make money now. I mean, that's why we tend to get booms and busts in markets is people become short term. I think you make money long term by preparing yourself now, not necessarily making money now. And I just think that the longer term, the way to make money is try to accumulate quality during times when people want to be sellers. And right now we're in an upstage in Bitcoin. My opinion is Bitcoin can go to 100,000. It's not going to go there day after day after day. There's going to be periods of days and weeks, perhaps even months ahead of us, where we see Bitcoin come under pressure. It's in periods like that where person wants to broaden their horizon and not think about today or next hour or next week. But how do you position yourself to benefit if Bitcoin goes to $100,000 or more? And so that's the mindset I think someone has to come in, is they're just trying to get themselves positioned for a larger story, for a bigger gain, and a broader perspective. So I guess that's how I'd answer that. So would you say that this is a time where it's good to accumulate Bitcoin? Well, we've had a good run here. I mean, I think definitely people have to have their foot in the water. I'm not sure somebody who is brand new to Bitcoin or is not have a position in Bitcoin wants to jump off of a high diving board at this point in the shallow water. But I think anybody who is interested in what Bitcoin has to offer has to have at least 10%, 20% of an ownership position relative to the capital that they could commit to Bitcoin in a bigger perspective. OK, Alessio, what do you think is the best way at the moment for a trader to profit from the current situation and make money with crypto? Well, I'm not a short-term trader. Most of my positions are, again, as Peter was saying, long-term position trades or swing positions. For me personally, I would say at the moment, I'm long. And I think that's probably the more sensible way to be on Bitcoin, unless we fall below the support positions that I mentioned earlier. Best thing to do is I would say three things. And this can be applied not just to Bitcoin, but most markets. But I think these principles I would stick to. Number one, whenever everybody is on one side, have gotten to the extreme, try and be on the other side. So like people recently have been on the bear side, it's good to do the opposite. At some point in the very near future, you're going to see the exact opposite. Once Bitcoin, I think Bitcoin probably will go into some kind of parabolic rally. If that happens, once that happens, be very careful. Number two, have an exit strategy. Now, if you're a hodler, you're holding forever, then maybe this won't be of much help to you. But if you're looking to trade Bitcoin, then definitely you've got to have an exit position. So whether it's a trailing stop, whether it's a target, whatever, you just got to have an exit position. And three, protect your bottom line, protect yourself against, when Bitcoin, when the price does something which goes against your original plan, if the reason why you got into the market is no longer present or valid, you got to get out, as simple as that. So you got to have an exit strategy, not just for profits, but also for protecting yourself against risk. Simple as that. Despite in Bitcoin price, during the latest Iran-US escalations, spark discussion on whether Bitcoin can be really considered or will become a safe haven asset in times of turmoil. What is your take on this issue, Peter? Oh, let Laceo go first on that one. I mean, I got a simple answer to that question. As many folks people know, people have watched my videos before, I've actually traveled to Iran, I've been there at least four or five times to Iran. I think Peter said, you've been there too, right? Tashira or something like that, Peter? I have not. All right, okay, maybe my mistake, sorry. So essentially, all I would say is that I think the whole geopolitical impact on Bitcoin is exaggerated, and even if it's true, it doesn't matter. I don't, it doesn't matter to me one bit what the impact is. And I think it's dubious anyway, this whole so-called geopolitical impact of Iran on Bitcoin. I think it's truly, I don't buy into that. And again, I'm not a fundamentals guy, I'm a technicals guy, and for me, the price action is what really matters. And I think for the vast 80% of traders, professional traders, it's the same thing. I'll let Peter answer that. I mean, we see this in all markets. It hits gold, it hits crude oil, they pass. I mean, I just remember back to when the US started bombing Iraq back in January of 1991, overnight the price of crude oil was up $5 a barrel. By the time we came in in the morning, a price went down $8 a barrel. You know, those things come and go, they don't have any lasting stain, everybody points to them. There's one other thing is, I think Bitcoin's a store of value. I think Bitcoin eventually will have a major impact as a way to settle global financial trade in commerce. Bitcoin is a safe haven. I think that's a stretch. Unfortunately, we've never had a situation where Bitcoin has existed during an economic crisis. The last economic crisis we had was in 2008, 2007, 2008. Bitcoin did not exist back then. For me, I would have to actually see for myself what happens to Bitcoin during the next potential recession. I don't think a recession is even likely until the year 2021, probably middle of the year 2021 based on some of the factors. But my position is, as I've said before, that I think Bitcoin is gonna suffer in a recession for the same reason that gold suffered in the last recession. When the last recession occurred in 2008, gold dropped by 30%, lost one third of its value. For the same reason, I think that Bitcoin will also drop in the next recession because most people have to raise cash. Gold essentially got liquidated, just like all other assets did. Most assets did, essentially for governments and people to raise cash because they needed obviously the money during an economic crisis. And I think that's what's gonna happen also to Bitcoin. Now, again, I stand to be corrected on that. We'll have to see. I know that there are some people who are probably gonna disagree with that. That's okay. But that's my position. Peter, do you also think that during a recession, Bitcoin would suffer as other assets? Yeah, I mean, historically, during recessions, people wanna go to cash. They want liquidity. They're scrambling. They're defensive. And that's not time people head out and take chances on what still is an unknown derivative to most people. So, yeah, I would agree with Alessio on that. A lot of people are saying that the halving is already priced in at the moment. Other people are saying that we need to expect skyrocketing in the prices of Bitcoin because of the halving. What's the take on this situation, Alessio? A lot of people keep commenting on my videos saying the same thing, you know, the halving, all this stuff. You know, it's gonna, I'll be honest with you, I think it's, I don't agree. I don't think that halving, I think it's gonna be a non-event. I think it's gonna, as you put it yourself in your email to me, I think it's gonna be a non-event. I think, I don't think it's gonna have a major impact. There might be some volatility for sure as we near the date of the halving. But no, I think this, look, the market has already known about the halving for a long time, way over a year now. So I can't see how possibly this halving event is gonna have a major massive impact on the price of Bitcoin. I think it's already been absorbed into the price. Yeah, sure. Again, some volatility might happen. Again, I'm not a fundamentals guy. I'm a technicals guy. And I care more about what the price action is saying than some fundamental event which everybody is known now for some time. I don't see halving as a big market force here. It's probably already priced in. If not, I don't think it matters quite frankly. I think people are pointing to it out of hope but it's a narrative that's overblown. Yeah, I would agree with that, yeah. Thank you guys for the great conversation. See you next time. And you guys, don't forget to subscribe to our channel and continue staying tuned for more exciting content on the latest crypto market updates. Coin Telegraph, like, subscribe and hodl.