 Well, good morning everybody and welcome to our Japan Update Conference, so I'm Shiro Armstrong I run the Australia Japan Research Center here at the ANU and on behalf of my co-convener's Professor Fujiwara Ipe and Dr. Lauren Richardson My delight to welcome you all here this morning before we get started We wish to acknowledge and celebrate the first Australians on whose traditional lands we meet and pay our respects to their elders past and present Emerging and for our online guests and our Japanese guests to let you know we're on Ngunnawal country So it's really nice to be able to hold this event in person again after two years being completely online But we are in a new normal and we have some speakers getting COVID We have to adjust to other uncertainties including flight delays flight cancellations And all of that so we've got some changes to the program which I'll make clear as we go But the first casualty off the block is of this new normal is the Dean of our College Helen Sullivan So before I introduce some of today's program and the issues we'll be discussing It's my pleasure to welcome you and formally open this year's update And to take on the Dean's duties So this year's Japan update is the 10th we've ran So the first one was nine years ago and we have Our keynote speaker who is actually here at the first Japan update This is one of the colleges the College of Asian Pacific's feature annual events that showcases our continued commitment to research Engagement and teaching and education on Japan So the update is brought to you by the Japan Institute here at ANU and the Australia Japan Research Center I think we're really lucky at the ANU to have two Dynamic centers that focus on Japan and really help us deepen the understanding of Japan and Australia's relationship with Japan So the age RC which I run is in its 42nd year It's been at the forefront of engagement in Asia and I want to acknowledge Professor Peter Driesdale Who's here who set up the Center 42 years ago with Sir John Crawford? The Japan Institute brings together all the teaching and research related to Japan on campus and under Lauren Richardson's leadership Has launched a weekly seminar series and kept a community of Japan scholars engaged throughout the pandemic The activities of the Japan Institute in fact all our work on campus on Japan is projected through that and the age RC And I hope you can all stay engaged in the various activities So our college here the College of Asia in the Pacific is home to the largest concentration of Asia expertise in the English speaking world That's a national asset and the one we continue to invest in I Think amongst all of that the specialists on China Indonesia of course the Pacific and elsewhere Japan has always been at the center of those efforts and leading leading the way for many decades So I'm delighted to see that continuing with some new appointments, which I'll mention later And a new generation of Japan scholars at the ANU So on behalf of the Dean and the ANU I'd like to welcome our guests from Japan Thank you very much for making the trip to Canberra We're looking forward to Japan opening its borders too so we can get to Japan visit freely We'd like to showcase our research and convening ability with our updates, but this year in particular Without our many colleagues without many of our colleagues being able to travel to Japan It's important that we have these firsthand insights from Japan So we're extremely grateful for our guests coming from Japan And on behalf of the Dean, it's my pleasure to launch this year's issue of The Japan issue of East Asia Forum quarterly Japan strategic choices and some of our speakers today have contributed articles to this So please grab a copy. There are plenty outside and for the online audience Hopefully you'll see a link pop up The East Asia Forum and the quarterly Magazines published by ANU Press proudly supported by the college It's one of our leading platforms that makes research accessible. We translate research For a broader audience And I think East Asia Forum stands out among the many efforts within the university and the university sector as a whole because of the rigorous double-blind peer review process And having a wide international reach and I can see a few of our anonymous reviewers in the room So thank you very much as always So this issue On Japan strategic choices examines the various crossroads that Japan has arrived at and which paths Are best taken and raises a lot of these questions That's especially so in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the continuing uncertainty around recovery from COVID And of course great power strategic competition and regional uncertainty in Australia and Japan's backyard so Back to back to wearing my hat. Thank you to the Dean for opening the update and My pleasure on behalf of the Dean to launch the East Asia Forum quarterly It's great to have a nice audience in person I think a silver lining from COVID is that we've got a large online audience now So this is a new feature of what we're able to do here and stream live to YouTube So we've built a fairly loyal audience I think and we're we're delighted about this. It's become a An important event on the annual calendar for those interested in Japan I was lucky enough to be in Japan in June and July this year And really can confirm that zoom is no substitute for being there in person Being on the ground being with people seeing the sights and smelling the smells It was even nice to be back in offices and classrooms Even though it was set at 28 degrees and extremely hot And even hearing from all the taxi drivers about how Japan's not quite ready yet for foreigners and opening borders Many of us haven't been able to get back to Japan from from Australia and even fewer have lived through the last few years of Pandemic in Japan and for that reason, I'm particularly Grateful to our speakers for making the trip out here and traveling to join us today Having our guests from Japan really enriches our understanding of Japan The thinking that's going on there in Japan and that's especially important after the challenges And changes that have occurred in Japan behind the closed borders And I think Japan has changed and we'll hear a bit about that today Some of the social problems have been exacerbated brought to the surface as well during the crisis Energy price inflation has shifted public opinion a bit on nuclear power And Japan has joined Western efforts in sanctioning Russia And assisting Ukraine I think both of our countries too have become more inward looking And for Australia, it's even more important that we understand Japan now And that's because Australia and Japan have never been closer politically or strategically Of course, there's big economic relationship. Japan's our second largest investor In Australia and Australia is by far the largest energy supplier to Japan But that's also in strategic raw materials iron ore and beyond The trade and investment relationship is of course much broader than the energy and resource Relationship, but that is the pillar And that relationship continues to grow with Japanese investment in new forms of energy We are both US allies, of course dealing with the United States distracted by big domestic challenges Australia and Japan both have An increasingly uncertain and assertive China as our largest trading partner So Australia and Japan share a big regional and global agenda where both governments are working really closely together In fact, it's usually the private sector that would lead and the government would follow But that's not the case now. We have both governments leading and that's not a bad thing, of course There's some complacency in the relationship And we need a big national investment here in Australia in how we relate to Japan I think the rest of the community Business academia We really need to to lift our game. There's an opportunity as borders open So it's in that context that we produced this reimagining the Japan relationship report last year Again, we've got copies of this too plenty of propaganda outside for everyone to pick up And that was kindly supported by the Australia Japan Foundation That gave us the opportunity to consult across the community And we use the opportunity Of closed borders and not being able to travel for some introspection here in Australia And there's a lot of enthusiasm as we travel around the country and talk to people There's an oversupply of great ideas for what to do with Japan and how to deepen and elevate our relationship There are many recommendations in the report But more than that, I think we tried to to have a new way of thinking about the relationship And a plan for the future of our important bilateral relationship We really argued for two pillars of engagement Around the management of the first pillar being around the management of the huge regional and global challenges We both face And the other pillar being the demographic and energy transitions underway in Japan that are literally transforming Japan And that those trends will accelerate And to achieve those Pillars of engagement, we had an enabling agenda of getting close to Japan and better understanding Japan That includes building up our institutional links with Japan Investing in not just language, but Japan literacy and familiarity more broadly And of course, there are important sections in the the report on how the arts and sports and other aspects of our relationship can contribute What came out of the report, we really want to explore a new comprehensive regional security Moving towards such a concept that comes really from Japan's idea of comprehensive security during Prime Minister Orhida's Time and his study groups So there are a number of initiatives that we will be working on And working on with Japanese colleagues and research partners The discussions around the country showed us a little Of of the assets that we have in the relationship and the energy of the relationship Recognizing that there's so much more We came away thinking that there's a huge amount of enthusiasm on Japan To take advantage of the closeness, but it's been bottled up and ready to be utilized And we came to the conclusion that a signal from the federal government will help spark that activity from the community Spark some action and Energy from the community So I mentioned before on the dean's behalf that we have large asia expertise in the college That doesn't happen automatically Not just because we have a college of asia in the pacific and it doesn't happen by accident Uh, it's in this space that the australia japan research center has just recruited doctor andrew lavetis Who's here in the room today to the anu the historian of modern japan You'll see his piece on former prime minister abe in the east asia forum quarterly Andrew did his phd in law at Kyoto university In japanese, of course, and then went to harvard and cambridge before we were able to to bring him here And he adds huge capacity Joining other historians of japan, uh, professor simon avanel and tomoko akami Of course, so much more needs to be done What we need from the university sector is leadership strategic appointments and big initiatives And that's all because We have to not just understand japan better But help shape outcomes We need to get closer to japan to be part of the energy transition We need to learn from japan's management of its massive demographic challenges and how it How it manages that manages that transition All right, we need to better understand and influence Japan's place in the world how it relates to the united states how it relates to china south east asia south korea And how japan plays into multilateral forums Where of course, australia is actively playing into with japan The assets in our relationship are significant But i would argue across the community Not up to the task at this stage given the importance of the relationship So today's proceedings and what we'll hear today. I think will really help us understand some of these issues in more depth Got a session of course on the japanese economy The social challenges japan faces now and the strategic choices for japan I mentioned the new normal we're in in the post-covid world of holding in-person events That means that unfortunately a couple of our speakers professor yanagawa and professor soya will be joining us via zoom They'll still Be able to participate but only via zoom and we also have a last minute substitute for bruce miller the chair of the australia japan foundation And on the australia japan research center board So in substituting for bruce miller. I very much like to invite My co-convener professor fujihara it bear to introduce our keynote speaker. Please join me in welcoming it bear Okay, good morning everyone. I'm it be fujihara professor of macroeconomics here at the enu and the keio university chair of this keynote session So the We started the very first japan update nine years ago with the keynote speech by gavana shirakawa. So It's a it's a great pleasure for me to introduce gavana shirakawa again as a keynote speaker In this marked 10th japan update And there's no better person than professor shirakawa to explain to us how we can think about the big economic trends And the choices at time with so many uncertainty Serving as governor from 2008 2013 shirakawa-san helped to steer the japanese economy through the gfc And the great eastern east japan earthquake And the jump the bank of japan under his leadership was innovative and was reading Indeed the global economic community and other central bankers learned a great deal from japan's experiences And i myself had the privilege of working At the bank of japan under shirakawa-san's leadership I learned really really a lot and nowadays Everyone must agree that the societal aging Significantly influenced the macroeconomy in terms of low growth Interest rate and the inflation rate However, when shirakawa-san raised this this issue in the early to mid 2000 No one did discuss this issue in the central banks and even I didn't get it either Most of my colleague and I myself thought Changes in population is just a changes in denominator So it it is not them not so much to do with macroeconomic activities But our understanding at that time was totally wrong And today there are tons of papers to show the structural relationship Between aging and the low growth And I myself benefit from this a lot I published several articles on aging and the deflation and or low interest rate And they reached that to my job at the ANU here. So for which I cannot thank shirakawa-san enough and I believe the fundamental contribution of scholars is not to show something complicated But to propose a new concept that nobody thought about before but that becomes the standard way of thinking after Shirakawa-san is a person who can offer such a fundamental contribution by creating a new consensus So we are today very fortunate to have shirakawa-san here today And shirakawa-san is of course one of the japan's most sophisticated the economic thinkers today If you find yourself hungry for more of his insight, I suggest you to pick up a copy of his recent book Tumau Tuas Times I practiced this yesterday so that this is really hard hard word to pronounce I practiced the look here in the google translation yesterday Tumau Tuas Times T-U-M-U-L-T-U-O-U-S Times I would be very precise about this Tumau Tuas Times Central Banking in the era of the crisis Where shirakawa-san talks about how japan's efforts to combat low inflation, low growth And the low interest rate Has challenged the mainstream economic thinking And the shirakawa-san's many other applications are listed in your booklet He's currently a distinguished guest professor of international politics Economics and the communication at the aoyama gakuin university Okay, but for now without a further ado, let's turn to what he has to say today about the japanese economy and the priorities and the prospects for reform Please join me in welcoming shirakawa-san Good morning everybody And thank you. I'm mr. Fujiwara for your extremely kind introduction And I'm very glad to return to this place Uh It's my great honor and pleasure to speak at 2022 japan's update Before starting my talk, I want to express my deepest respect for What the australia japan research center and a new japan institute of the australian national university Have accomplished in the research and education on japanese studies over the years Uh, the title of my today's speech is misunderstanding realities and true challenges of the japanese economy and society Long ago, japan was viewed as a Country enjoying high-growth economy like present-day china Today i'm wondering what kind of image you have towards the japanese economy I suspect that You have the image that japanese economy Has been in quagmire Due to deflation over the decades Yes, japan japanese economies is faced with a lot of difficulties But i would say it is just like Any other uh countries And as I will explain later Some of the difficulties We are faced with are essentially common to other countries Although japan had explained those difficulties far ahead of other countries Some of the difficulties are relatively unique to japan For these and other reasons Misunderstanding about the japanese economy is so pervasive and deep-seated As I will explain Perhaps the expression which best captures such misunderstanding is the lost decade Or the lost two decades or even the lost three decades of the japanese economy Oh, it's not oh, yeah, okay Yes, japanese economies And the japanese GDP growth rate was declining This figure shows 10 year average of growth rate It is trending down and now about one percent But if we look at the growth of and the path of If we look at the the growth Of japanese economy since the start of 2000 In global context Japanese GDP growth was the second lowest along with italy among g7 countries But if we look at the path of real GDP per working age population Japan's growth rate is among the highest along with Germany our growth rate is higher than that of united states And if we look at the gdb pack capital then Japanese growth rate is just average So what I can say by looking at these figures is two One is Japanese economy growth is not so good But not so bad as as is implied by the word of lost decades or lost three decades The second The deflation Which is often cited as a culprit of low growth is nothing to do with low growth even if We succeeded in raising inflation rate from zero to say to percent The underlying realities of demographics Which created the divergence between gdb growth and gdb pack capital or gdb per working age population Is not resolved Nevertheless, the overly negative views about japanese growth performance is widespread Among both japanese and non-japanese It also deflation is often cited as culprit for low growth Such tendency is especially strong among US academics and policy makers They were quite influential in shaping the the image toward japanese economy in a global context They maintain deflation was the main cause of low growth of the japanese economy You can see This argument In the famous speech by ben bananke who was then governor and eventually became the chairman of the fed This speech was made in 2002 when us was nearing the The decline in inflation rate And the title Is The speech of his title is Oh, yeah deflation making sure it doesn't happen and He and others were so much concerned about The fact that us will become the country like japan because of deflation And essentially He saw that Low inflation rate was the main cause of low growth of japanese economy the us economy us academics believe that As long as central bank conduct aggressive monetary easing after the bursting of bubble The japanese like situation could be avoided The this is again the famous speech by alon blinder Princeton professor and former by chair of the fed The this speech was made in 2005 just six months before chairman alon green span was retiring And people discuss what kind of Lesson new chairman have to be equipped with And he said this Greenspan was determined not allow the fed to follow the bank japan into zero lower Zero nominal interest rate trap And he said this strategy Seem to work pretty well So he said as long as central bank is aggressively enough Then central bank can avoid japanese like situation This was just three years before the fed was faced with zero lower band of interest rate In any event As for gtb growth of the japanese economy Deflation was not its cause How about a policy prescriptions? proposed by such critics Again, this was wrong In order to assess the effectiveness or propose policy prescriptions The best way is to just look at what happened after The great or grand monetary experiment so to speak Which bank japan Started to conduct in 2013 This shows the expansion of central bank balance sheet of bank japan federal reserve and european central bank This is speaking for itself the size of central bank balance sheet was almost quadrupled The ratio of central banks balance sheet to gdp increase from 30 percent in 2013 to 110 percent in 2019 and now to 120 percent This is really gigantic increase in the central bank balance sheet or central bank money But response of inflation rate was quite muted The every three months bank japan is publishing its outlook growth rate and inflation rate and Inflation projection was always betrayed for instance In the spring of 2013 They projected inflation rate in 2015 will be 1.9 percent But the actual number was zero percent And again and again this kind of overestimation continued and so the The presumption was aggressive matter easing easily generate inflation And in those days bank japan was criticized for not not doing that And then great monetary experience started, but there is no response at all So proposed policy did not work And some may say inflation rate is now increasing globally But this is mainly due to the energy and price inflation caused by supply side factors including COVID-19 and Russian invasion into ukraine, et cetera in japan Inflation rate is increasing Although It is much lower compared with other advanced economies in any event Nobody is saying inflation is Finally coming to japan because of aggressive matter easing You may wonder why such thing misunderstanding about japanese economy was created Among the u.s. academics The reasons are very simple First japan experienced huge bubble ahead of other advanced economies Second japan experienced rapid aging again ahead of other advanced economies Suddenly human beings are not good at imagining what they have not experienced So it is understandable that the u.s. academics who had not had first-hand experience of First-hand experience and the timing of early 2000 could could not grasp the severity of bursting of bubble As well as rapid aging It was only after the great global financial crisis that they started to recognize the importance of the severity of bubble This misunderstanding was quite harmful For japan in the sense that policy debate was diverted from the very essential issues Of structural issues to peripheral issues of mild deflation All energy was wasted on discussing how to boost inflation rate misunderstanding about This year's was a pity But the harm was more than that Misunderstanding affected policy debate in other advanced economies as well I will say drawing wrong lesson from the japanese experience is at least partly responsible for the recent global inflation surge When inflation rates suddenly jumped in april last year Many central banks including the Fed initially saw this as being transitory transitory But inflation has kept rising And it was only much this year When the Fed started to increase policy rate from zero The central banks are now being criticized for being behind the curve Why did it happen? Huge uncertainties over the recovery speed of intricate global supply chain And the response of job market to the improvement Of covid-19 situation are often cited as Calculate on top of that the russian invasion of ukraine Was beyond anybody's expectation But just pointing to all these scientists Misses the important cause of elevated inflation I suspect That the misguided fear of deflation Based on alleged lesson of the japanese economy is partly responsible for this huge policy mistake They were both they were too much afraid of deflation And constrained of zero low bound of interest rate This was The lesson that they believed to have drawn from the japanese experience Their argument was that in order to retain the room for declining interest rate 2 percent inflation rate had to be achieved at all costs on a sustained basis Which called for allowing some overshooting of inflation rate Just to compensate for the past shortfall of inflation rate This was called average inflation targeting Or over running hot strategy This was formally incorporated into fed policy framework in august 2020 And the same concept was incorporated into ecb last year As this shows the reading of the japanese economy in the past three decades affected Multi-policy conduct and for that matter Marko equal performance in other advanced economies as well All this as this episode shows Falling studies are quite important In learning right lessons and avoiding wrong lessons Incidentally I myself are doing Modest effort in this respect Uh after I retired from the governor of the bank japan I wrote a book whose pronounce whose title is hard to pronounce too much at times a central bank in a year of crisis And it was motivated my growing frustration over Over negative over the popular Uh account of the japanese economy and more importantly Over concern over the negative consequence of misguided lessons for of the japanese economy on multi-policy conduct globally So far I have explained about misunderstanding and realities of japanese economy But I do not want to be misunderstood I'm not arguing that the japanese economy is in a good shape My intention is quite the opposite As is the same with any country including australia Japan too is faced with enormous challenges for example climate change rising influence of china polarization of society to name a few but I would Like to defer the argument of these issues to the experts who are attending in this conference Instead, I would like to focus on just on one issue Which is more visible most visible in japan compared with other countries That is demographic change I've already talked about a bit about the impact of rapid aging on the economy A minute ago But there is another more important aspect of demographic change That is a decline in population Due to low birth rate itself Again, japan is a forward runner In the this challenge far ahead of other countries But it is 100 percent certain that other major economies including china Will face the same challenge With some time lack Birth rate in japan is very low at 1.3 And the ratio of falling born People to total population is quite low at less than 2 percent Population started to decline from 2009 And the rate of decline is crucially Is currently mild But will accelerate Australia is one of a few Advancing countries that are recording high population growth Although the inflow of falling born people decrease recently after COVID-19 In any event built from australia It may be somewhat difficult to vividly imagine How the society losing population is In order to explain the meaning of declining population as opposed to rapid aging I'm always using this metaphor If I liken the japanese economy to a gigantic rowing boat Rapid aging is a situation in which the number of rowers is decreasing While the number of order passengers is increasing Asking healthy order passengers to continue to row will somewhat mitigate the program In contrast a declining population is a situation in which passengers in the boat are becoming sparse Imagining such a gigantic rowing boat makes me feel really appalled Even if actual birth rate is below the replacement level of 2.1 Population will increase for considerable period of time I have never had Proprietion will increase for considerable period of time simply because the number of mothers is large So people do not recognize the problem But this situation does not last Actual number of population starts to decline eventually At this stage people face up to the realities of declining population The point is that unless people have the expectation that population decline will stop at some point In future they cannot become confident about the future Weak domestic demand And rowing outward for entire investment are reflecting this fundamental demography in japan Nowadays people are increasingly talking about sustainability or ESG or SDGs. It is good But I have never heard declining population is referred to as one of important components of Of sustainability in the discussion in discussion of ESG or SDGs Unlike rapid aging Decreasing population is not discussed in a standard macroeconomic theory They are just looking at fluctuation around upward trend of GDP But the issue to be examined is what will happen if trend growth of GDP turns negative This may be a bit digression But what economists are currently discussing under the heading of demographic change is mainly rapid changing Rapid aging as opposed to declining population Two years ago Charles Gooden and others wrote an influential book titled Demographic Reversal This book is quite good And He argued but he argued The entry of the former social economy into the global market economy Which was the main factor in having profitability is now being replaced by rapid aging Which means declining labor supply He concludes this demographic reversal leads to higher inflation This argument sounds plausible But neglecting another important aspect He's looking into only one aspect of demographic change But neglecting another important aspect of demographic change that is declining population As is the case with mild deflation Japan is a forerunner in this respect But many countries will follow suit as I said Unfortunately, the implication of declining population is not free so through GDP growth rate is a sum of growth of number of workers and labor productivity As this figure shows the number of workers In is the number of workers is projected to decline in decade to come We can reasonably expect The decline of workforce by assuming that labor pathway for gender and elderly Is concern Then workforce decline or workforce will Accelerate more than 1% This is a huge headwind The issue is how to boost productivity growth And this determines final outcome of GDP growth If Japan tried to prevent GDP growth Rate from declining and possibly to raise GDP growth rate It is very clear Japan has to make strenuous effort on two fronts One is the effort at increasing workforce or population itself And the other is the effort at increasing productivity This shows the labor participant rate of male and female As for or we have Where to be succeeded increasing labor participant rate for the elderly considerably For both men and women This is evident If you compare the number of number for 2009 and 2019 And the female participant rate The female participant rate in Japan is lower than in Sweden But believe it or not It is now higher in Japan than in us But the problem is female rate female person in Japan is there is fewer female who are working At managers level In this regard Japan has to redouble the effort In this regard People outside Japan especially Australian May naturally have a question of receiving more foreign workers As you may know the ratio of foreign workers to total population Japan is quite low at less than 2% But the unrecognized fact is that Before the COVID-19 crisis Japan was already receiving increasing number of foreign workers In fact according to OEC statistics Japan was the third largest country in terms of annual growth number of receiving foreign workers in 2016 following Germany and UK And the fourth largest in terms of net number of number of receiving foreign workers following Following Germany I think this basic trend will continue once COVID-19 crisis is over But having said that I do not think receiving foreign workers Could not be a realistic solution for Japanese economy in decade to come Just because The sheer size of decreasing Working age population is so huge In the past 10 years or so the average number of decline of working population is about 6 or 7 thousand I know This is 600 or 700 thousand people This is a huge number So if we really try to offset decline in workforce by receiving foreign workers We have to continue to receive such number of foreign workers every year And I don't think any country Which is very The open And heterogeneous cannot cope with this kind of station. So in that sense I'm I'm in favor of receiving more foreign workers But I don't think it's a solution Now I'd like to turn to the efforts at boosting productivity This figure is a comparison of labor productivity growth of Japan the us germany In the past two decades Japan's productive growth is not much different from that of the us and Germany But at least not accelerating When it comes to productivity people often talk about technology and innovation Nowadays it AI robot robotics and digital transformation are buzzwords Of course, they are all important But when it comes to economy wide productivity as opposed to firms level productivity What is far more important is resource reallocation For example from less efficient firms to more efficient firms The left hand side of this figure shows distribution of Productivity of individual firms we find that the gap between firms with low productivity is We find the gap between firms with high productivity And those with productivity low productivity is widening The stagnation of firms with low productivity is putting downward pressure on Japanese macro labor productivity One hand side of this figure shows the survival rate of low-protective firms It is very clear that survival rate of low-protective firm in japan is higher than in the united states In essence, the problem with productivity is a lack of economic metabolism or churning And we have to think deeply what is behind these phenomenon And what is needed to boost productivity And people are fond of talking about innovation and technology And but just talking about innovation is just like Talking about dream and we have to talk about reallocation of resources more than that The in essence okay, and we have there are several important issues on this First employment practices Traditional japanese employment practice Characters by long-term Employment are increasingly waning in its importance, but still account for Unicorn part of the japanese economy In this system firms are expected to work as a kind of shock absorber And the provider of safety net when the economy is hit by shock To the extent that firms are constrained by such impressive social contract Necessarily we allocation of resources tend to be delayed Japan's labor mobility is low in international comparison This figure shows there exists a positive relationship between labor mobility and productivity growth Japan's low labor mobility is partly responsible for failure to boost productivity Second declining population itself Declining population affects not only the quantity of labor but also The productivity in a subtle through subtle mechanism Declining population affects region differently In regions losing population rapidly It is becoming costly to maintain public infrastructure But naturally it is difficult politically to reduce expenditure for those regions Although it is eventually implemented What we saw what we see in the process is gradual decline in productivity Due to delayed delayed allocation of resources across region Third prolonged monetary easing Monetary easing itself affects both efficient and inefficient firms But for innovative startup In this course is not a key factor for them to undertake innovation While for incumbent in efficient firms a continuation of low interest rate is very crucial In the long run Resource allocation namely movement of people and capital will be progress In a response to a change in market Reflecting underlying trend of the economy and society such as technology and demography The problem is that it takes increasing longer period of time for Japan to get a meaningful consensus And the division of opinion arises for several reasons First technology and globalization affect people differently Second the impact of rapid aging and declining population differs across region Third inequality is widening even though Japan's air is relatively egalitarian society in international comparison Reflecting these political decisions tend to be delayed For example in order to increase birth rate Government has to increase expenditure on newly born babies But in a grey hair democracy expenditure on the elderly such as pension and medical and caring services are preferred So boosting productivity growth is not not necessarily about technology It is ultimately determined by societal capability to forge a reasonable consensus leading to sustainable economy and society This is really a daunting task And every country every country is faced with more or less the same challenges having said that not Simple mindedly arguing that Japan should embrace the principle of free market economy only on efficiency grounds That's not my intention Stability is of course important consideration What is needed is to form a reasonable societal consensus by striking the balance between efficiency and stability In this regard it seems that every jurisdiction is now faced with enormous challenges For example in the United States We are surprised by sharp division between democrat and republicans In the EU, EU division between north and south is so strong The problem is the universal When I I'm afraid that my presentation Makes you a bit pessimistic But I'd like to close my speech with a positive tone When I make public speech on the future of japanese economy like this one I always conclude my speech by saying pessimism is a mood And optimism is the will by borrowing words of famous french philosopher In this field what is needed is well is informed discussion And research is supporting those discussions And in this respect, I hope Japan update will continue to play this role. Thank you very much for your kind attention Thank you very much, Shirakawa-san for insight for Presentation so I'm already above 50, but I learned I need to roll the boat much harder Okay, so the It's a great chance for for you to ask the Shirakawa-san the question director If you have any questions, please raise your hand and uh somebody Okay, I'm using one microphone so that Yeah Oh, could you could you go there and could you tell your name and affiliation before starting your question? David Lowe formally at the Australian embassy in tokyo as the treasury representative and currently on leave Thank you, Shirakawa-san for Extremely interesting. If you don't like could you wear off the mask and your your voice is a bit sounding. Yeah resounding. Yeah Okay, is that better? Okay, okay um, so David Lowe Formerly at the Australian embassy in tokyo The treasury representative there and currently on leave So, um, thank you, Shirakawa-san for your incredibly insightful presentation um In your presentation you were sort of pointing to I guess the failure of ultra easy monetary policy to um To solve deflation in japan. Yeah Next year the japan the the bank of japan will have a new governor And it may be an opportunity for the bank to revise its monetary policy Uh, I wonder if you um, would like to express a view about um, how the bank um, whether the bank should sort of Adjust or slightly normalize its monetary policy Given that those settings haven't worked towards deflation And if if so will that be possible without Increasing interest rates in japan to the extent that it might bring on a debt crisis You didn't touch on the very high levels of japanese government debt in your charts, but um, Of course, that's a huge issue in the background and I think Something that people are very worried about looking in at japan at the moment Okay, thank you very much for your question You raised profoundly important question and it's almost impossible for me to respond to a question in a minute or so but Uh, the reason why I chose this topic for today's presentation is Uh, I think uh, what is needed is to do a kind of structural reform And the monetary policy is just one aspect of what is needed And people often talk about how to exit from current monetary And of course this question itself is relevant, but Essentially the technically exit is not that difficult just to raise the interest on result but The the problem is what would happen given given for instance the very bad fiscal situation so Without addressing this kind of issue the process is would be bumpy And that's why I stress the importance of doing this kind of structural reform. I explain And I I'm afraid that my answer is not fully convincing Not comprehensive enough, but that's my initial response Thank you very much. Uh, any question anyone Okay, I have a question in the chat so that you'll figure about the fertility rate decline is really impressive so that One participant asking you about the what are the deep cause of the declining population? Maybe the particularly this person is asking is it due to the changes of the value? So what's the fundamental causes of the declining, you know population? Yeah uh First of all declining birth rate itself is universal from an advanced economist and I assume that many of you know the common factors first of all If uh borrowing if I borrowed the word from economists It is due to increasing opportunity cost of raising a kid. That is one part of the story but Other than that My sense is Japanese society is not friendly enough for young Young couples who want to have babies In this respect the I feel sorry for my wife when my First daughter was born in those days I was not cooperative. I was working hard from from 9 to 11 or 12 I was so I was spending so much time in the office and that was taking it for granted but raising kid joined work by both parents But still Japanese society Japanese society is trying to improve this kind of bad practice It is surely improving but still Not friendly enough That is one example so my response to the question is The society is not generous or friendly enough and in this regard We have many things to be tested and some cynical people are saying that It is impossible for us to raise birth rate And there's of course, I admit there's no silver breath, but at least we have explained What we think might be useful At least given that we Experimented with monetary policy at least it is more worthwhile for us to experiment with possible measure of raising birth rates. That's my response Okay, thank you very much so that you may have several questions But we are about the time to go to that at the tea break and thank you so much for the active participation And the Shirakawa-san kindly agreed to participate in the next panel as well So if you have any question, you can ask him at the panel or if you are shy you can ask him over the tea or something Okay, uh, please join me thanking Shirakawa-san for insight representation. Thank you so much And are we going to start the next session from? 10 30 10 30 so please enjoy coffee or something else Yeah Well, uh, good morning everyone It's uh, it's fantastic to be here this morning to see everybody in person and online And and of course we're joined today from Japan by A speaker who's going to follow on from the fascinating talk. I thought from from governor Shirakawa Professor Yanagawa from the University of Tokyo and um, I Invite him now. He's going to give an address and then we're going to have a discussion between the three of us and But after that, um, I will be opening also to questions from the audience. So During the time just raise your hand. So I have a have an idea that that people who want to participate So if I could invite professor Yanagawa now, um, thank you very much and um, We'd appreciate your address. Thank you Yes, I'm afraid so, uh, professor Yanagawa, can you hear us? Can you hear me? Is it clear? No, I'm just talking Is that okay? Of course the wonders of technology demonstrate once again. Well, there's nothing like doing things in person sometimes Uh, so uh, while we wait for uh, a few little technical difficulties we ironed out I'll start by following on from the um, terrific talk by the governor earlier And and you talked governor about, you know, learning the wrong lessons Much of the world also learning the wrong lessons From from what japan has done because it was the kind of the first into so many so many things So Can I ask you? Is it appropriate now to still be trying for a two percent target or an inflation rate of two percent or is that really Just no longer relevant Okay The Your question is about the japan or global context in japan japan first of all in no japan first and then We'll go to the global context. Okay the My answer is not Not so Simple a bit complicated, but let me try First of all the We need independent central bank. Otherwise economy tend to follow short-run Benefit and that's why central bank independent indeed But at the same time in a democratic society Central bank have to be accountable So we have to explain how and Why the central bank is passing particular course of monetary policy and in that context the we the we need some concept About what constitutes a price stability and In that context some number is needed and Two percent is adopted by many central bank including bank japan And i'm not against two percent itself, but also I'm not a big fan of particular number including two percent for several reasons one is If we look back on the economy in the past two or three decades Many of the problem did not manifest itself By taking the form of inflation In many cases it was bubble that created the considerable fluctuation of economic activity Back in bubble period in 1980s Average and the average emission rate was below one percent But still and viewed from today The very accommodate monetary policy at that time was criticized But if we had adopted two percent targetting at that time Then we should have we should have adopted Further more aggressive materialism and that was nonsense so Even though prosperity is important two percent doesn't capture What is needed and also We cannot become confident about precision of number of major inflation rate and so only all Two percent should be interpreted as a broad objective of monetary policy So if your question is about whether central bank should Should conduct monetary policy just with the aim of attaining two percent within short time frame My answer is no, but So my answer is two percent is okay, but we have to interpret it as a broad mandate That's my We've we've talked obviously about the the world taking the wrong lessons, but also in some ways. I think The japan initially applying the wrong formulas Do you what would have happened if japan had not Pursued this very aggressive monetary policy. Would we be looking at a better economy now or a worse economy? Uh I must be I joined the bank japan in 1972 and I was working for monetary policy department for many years and Since 2000 I was heavily involved in almost every decision on monetary policy so i'm a part of monetary easing story and I don't think that Monetary easing itself was wrong and of course Monetary easing should be pursued in each period but presumption of monetary policy is to adjust short-run fluctuation and We don't think that monetary policy should be tool for or the cure for The program of wrong nature So if Monetary easing is adjusted quickly Then it's okay, but Given social and political dynamics Monetary easing tend to be prolonged that is a prune and and this is a difficult part and even Even though Society does have such kind of tendency of asking central bank to do more and more MITRE easing for program of time Central bank cannot say no no We can't do any monetary easing just for that So that is the accountability issue and central bank is independent But central bank is not the country with Is it not the kingdom with the country? So that is my my Reaction for your question. Well, you said also that really when you talk about yield Curve control policy and and getting out of really easy monetary policy. It's not that technically difficult But it's obviously very politically difficult. Do you foresee that happening or are we looking in japan at this just continuing indefinitely because it is so difficult You come control was introduced some years after I left and the bank of japan and as a former governor, I I I'm a bit reluctant to criticize what my old institution are now doing But I'm not big fan of yield curve control for several reasons and anyway, somebody has set interest rate level That's why central bank is Set short-term interest rate But if central bank is faced with zero interest rate, anyway central bank have to change interest on the With some maturities and This is the only instrument through which Central bank can exert the effect of monetary easing. So in that sense I do not deny the importance of innovative instrument, but yield curve control is is act about about capping cap the interest rate on 10-year government bond yield But there's a huge uncertainties over the economy in decade to come And it's almost impossible for central bank or any Any economic entity to know what is a what is a prevailing level within during 10 years time. So I'm not big fan of And also as you said The longer this yield curve control continues The more difficult it is to change for political reason And and also I was fascinated When you said and I think I plead guilty to this The the perception of the Japanese economy having had you know lost decades and then you pointed out that Per capita or poor worker. They were average or or above in terms of per worker Do you think that led to a kind of complacency and over complacency within japan? No, despite the perception inside no outside The first of all, I'm not arguing for an arguing We should be satisfied and But at the same time The Japanese tend to look at tend to Tend to judge the performance of Japanese economy Based on how foreigners are viewing Japanese economy So given that foreign academy are saying Japanese economy is suffering from lost decade many Japanese tend to think that we are suffering from lost decade and That is that is what I want to avoid. So We should be we should just look at the reality So reality is both. So JP growth itself is declining The same time per capita per capita basis. It is not so bad and we have to look at What is a fundamental problem? That is my intention. So the I don't think Japanese and many Japanese Having some kind of complacency. No, it's opposite. All right. So what is going to also I think Bring it home to other people as to Japanese as it is in every country around the world Is inflation and particularly you've got the rapid decline or the very big decline in the value of the yen What type of impact will that have? Up until some years ago Up until some years ago many firms are arguing that the Overly strong yen is a fundamental reason why they are losing competitiveness. So they said if the overly Expensive yen is the result then we might regain the competitiveness But today yen depreciates sharply But the competitive Japanese firm is not returned. So The as I said in my presentation the basic problem is not deflation of yen's exchange rate rather the productivity and today the yen's depreciation is affecting the affecting inflation rate slightly And but more importantly the it is Decreasing the patching power of money. So for average the households and for average SMEs yen depreciation means erosion of real income or Squeeze of profit. So I'm not saying yen's appreciation is good What I'm saying is we have to look at What would be the Japanese economy built from sustainability? And I don't think the The continuation of this kind of yen depreciation is not sustainable built from overall economy Okay. Well, I I think that's probably a good point. I'm told we have Professor Yanagawa on the line is if that is correct We could possibly ask him now to To please address us. I hope this is working professor Yes, can you hear me? Is okay? Great. Thank you. Thank you. I'm feeling first of all, I'm feeling so sorry that I cannot attend this wonderful conference in person it's My great honor to attend this wonderful panel discussion with great governor Shirakawa san and I'm afraid I just interrupted the great discussion about monetary policy, but It's my work. So I'm going to address small my presentation and I'll share my slide Can you see the my slide? Okay And Could you just speak a little bit now the professor one? It is okay. It's just a little bit louder if possible. Okay. Thank you. So I'm going to talk about the two big issues one is the market mechanism in japan and the second one is the Potential growth rate in japan that is related to the presentation by Shirakawa san And this is a basic point but the the signaling effect of prices is very important for the market mechanism And price reflect demand and supply side conditions But also there's some information about the future possibility for the products or the industry so In order to inform this kind of information by prices Prices should reflect the market situation appropriately. This is a basic economic theory But in japan this price effect the signal effect of prices does not work appropriately So in japan price do not move so sensitively In some sense they are stable So in the world of Shirakawa san there's a shock absorbing movement for the prices So even though the market conditions are drastically changing just like in these days Wage do not change And interest rate do not change And the oil prices do not change actually if the retail oil prices do not change And the other retail prices do not change So this is very Friendly for the consumers But the market mechanism doesn't work well The information signaling effect of prices do not work well I think this is Very uh Some side negative aspect of japanese reform There are some reasons One reason is japanese culture or japanese custom Do not change the prices do not change the retail prices But some of the japanese legal rules or regulations Pretend to change the prices And some of the policies Pretend to change the prices. For example oil prices the retail oil prices is now controlled by japanese government In order to avoid that A drastic shock For the consumers This is good for consumers of course But Then so it sometimes functions to stabilize the economy against the temporal shocks But It prevents to adjust to the structural change of the market or structural change of the economy So now the example is under the covid 19s So in japan we fortunately that we experience a low unemployment rate And the stable wage rate wage rate do not go down And restaurants should be closed By regulation But those restaurants are subsidized by the government So that is okay for those restaurants but Entry and exit Mechanism did not work for the restaurants and Other industries hotels and something And by the this kind of policies or the customs GDP in japan did not drop down sharply compared to other oac countries By the covid 19 But the recovering process is very slow And Market prices are not so going up So that is one aspect one important aspect in japan That this is related to the differential But not This is quite different aspect about the movement of prices so that so One negative aspect of the shock absorbing economy is That's Do not stimulate the incentives for the farms or workers In order to stimulate the incentives and motivations Appropriate price changes are necessary. This is a basic theory of economics To revitalize the japanese economy I think it is necessary to exit from the mind And the policy stance to just sustain the status quo And just avoid the drastic change and the shocks absorbing And the kindness to the consumers I I believe this aspect is Important to stimulate the japanese economy and stimulate the incentives of investments or More active behavior in japanese before And at this point is also related to the fiscal and manipulated policy There's a Keynesian type of fiscal policy and monetary policy of similar aspect Temporary aggregate demand stimulate can avoid the short-term pain Can absorb the short-term shocks But they sometimes they do not stimulate structure change low interest rate and big subsidy Those type of policies Can avoid the structure change of the market for the people This is a negative side for the stimulating the structure change as shirakas and stress So in order to avoid the short-term drastic shock So tempers fiscal or monetary policies are necessary. I agree with this point but Keeping this Big fiscal policy and the monetary policy That may prevent the structure reform in some sense And second issues The eye I believe the most important issues in japan is how to raise up the potential growth rate It has declined in trend in the long run Of course, there are many reasons And one big reasons are aging society as shirakas and stress And the population decline These two issues at his point these two points are big program for japan and labor productivity as shirakas and stress shirakas and explain labor productivity growth is not so bad for japan but given the progress of aging society Given the population decline We need more high level of labor productivity growth So for the policy side The important point Is how to raise the labor productivity And more open So Even if the total population is declining Working population can be increased For example, labor participation by women So how to increase the working population? How to and how to increase the labor productivity these two points are main issues main problem for the japanese policy And that there was a negative pessimistic aspect But i think that's In japan we have the potentials So potential possibility of the growth Is also important to stress So japan The geographic point is close to asian country With high growth rate Of course the relationship with the china is a big issues A very controversial issues But not only china East asian countries experiences with high growth rates So close to these countries is a main big positive aspect for japanese economy So how to cooperate with those growing countries? One important aspect for japan including australia And Technological capacity of japanese companies companies are still very High and big So potential for those companies Very big. So i think how to stimulate This potential Is very important And more of the labor participation in japan is potential Very high potential So as silakasas pointed out The labor participation by women Is growing up but the They just think as a part-time job Or part-time work In order to increase the more productivity or more population labor populations So the old job those Female workers Should work more Intensively or just not only the part-time job, but also the normal Working isn't necessary And they are hoping to work more intensively Japanese female workers in general So Change the policy To stimulate the labor participation of the female workers Are very important and we have a potential to increase the labor participation And the last point is that now the startup companies Innovative startup companies are being created in japan So many startups coming out and as i will explain later that japanese government try to Push up those movements So this is very important and very good potential for japanese economy And in order to stimulate the labor productivity It is necessary to promote the human capital investments so The policy to stimulate the gdp or stupid economic growth rate some kind of investment to high tech products i t iot or ai those kind of industry Those kind of investment Promoted by japanese government of course those are important, but not only those Investment to the tangible asset, but also intangible asset particularly the human capital Is very crucial for japan Because in these 20 or 15 years The investment to the human capital by the japanese companies are declining drastically So that is i think i i think this is one reason that japanese labor productivity is not so growing up very much so The human capital Now i'll explain later that the japanese government try to stress the investment of the human so in japan hitoe no toshi That's a key point that key policy agenda to increase the human capital investment and but but also that just that the policy for the subsidy Is important, but also it is necessary to tackle labor market reform and education issues so and Moreover that as shirakasen stories In order to resolve the issue of the rapidly aging population It is necessary to strengthen Measures to address the decline in birth rate Including support for child rearing That's a ski point. I agree with shirakasen and Japanese government recently announced a new form of capitalism There's some of the many people are criticized what is the new What is the new aspect of the new form of capitalism? I don't explain the detail of what is the new element but I think that's Not so new And it is not so sorry to new so the Important the policy we would like to Realize is to increase the labor productivity and increase the potential growth rate so That the policy announcement is making the positive cycle of growth and distribution And they will be developing a new post-covid 19 society that is policy announcement Agenda but a key point is that as I stress in this presentation importance of the sustainability and the human capital and Building the sustainable capitalism focusing on various stakeholders And the leading happiness of the wide range of people those kinds of sustainability is important aspect for the new capitalism, but the key point is us again the human capital so and Market mechanism as I stress first That is also important aspect to issue stress So realize the economic growth by utilizing market functions. So that's So I like to stress So market make functions mean the market mechanism using the price mechanism to announce the economic conditions by the market prices And the deregulation and the structural reform of the japanese market And for the the side of human capital the recent policies stress the visualizing human capital or intangible asset So that is now coming that policies. That's uh, visualizing the human capital and intangible asset So the disclosure rules are changing and the japanese firms try to Disclose the level of human capital nowadays and I Almost time so that I don't explain the detail about other policies of the new formal capitalism, but DX digital transformation, this is a buzzword in japan and Gx this is also buzzword in japan and Gx mean that the green transformation investment to the sustainable energy and green technology And to support those kind of industry and the stimulated economy and dx and gx major government investment in in these three or five years in japan and startups that is the delivery of innovation And I believe in that the startups are important, you know, the japanese traditional firms companies are of course very intelligent and very productive in some sense, but The ROE or ROA of those companies is very low In order to raise up the ROE or ROA So startups venture companies are necessary more necessary in japan so Kind of supports or the government support subsidies is necessary, but the deregulation to open up the new field or new market to startups venture companies are necessary in japan So the summary is the how to raise up the potential growth rate So in these days japanese governments try to To stress to focus on these points investment to human capital and the major to convert the decline of birth rate and promoting women's participation in the workforce and the dx investment gx investment startup support And I Have no time to explain the detail of that Social security problem But the reform of social security is also important for the japanese economy in the future so that's all and I hope to discuss more detail about this point with syracos and other peoples. Thank you very much Well, thank you very much professor another terrific talk Why are we just on that you've outlined what you see as the Important some of the important aspects of structural reform in the japanese economy, but you also said That you need to change the mindset of The status quo and and no dramatic change so How we saw abinomic abinomics had had the idea of structural reform that seemed to not go as Well as people had hoped What makes you think that The new form of capitalism whatever that whatever that however that is described or what that means is going to do any better at actually Promoting the type of change that you are hoping for Yes It's structural reform and in abinomics that That the government too stressed the deregulation But even if that change of rules not Not only the change of rules does not change the economy By changing the rule and simultaneously Enter the new companies to the new market is necessary So promoting the startups and promoting the venture capital of venture companies And the promoting the human capital who has a new type of knowledge or new technology So those kind of support is necessary And in order to realize those points the labor market reform is necessary that is very tough work, but I hope the japanese government try to change Try to tackle the labor market reform And and governor how how confident are you that the government will be able to Institute those types of changes that you've been talking about and and professor Yanagawa has been talking about Okay, now first of all I agree with what professor Yanagawa said and basically and son His view is is the same as mine and The I have this kind of trouble always I can identify What is needed? but The everybody has its own preferred policy prescriptions And in a democratic society anyway, we need some sort of consensus. Otherwise, government cannot implement and so Just to say government should this and this is not Does not capture what we need And as a prerequisite for government to deliver on what they should do The real issue is how how to inform the how how to form the informed the consensus And that is the hardest part and in this regard in the short run. I am not so optimistic Uh, but in the long run, as I said the the closing of my remarks and the policy is eventually reflecting what society want to have so if we really discuss what The problem and what are the possible solution then eventually the I Would be optimistic. That's my new answer to your question. Okay So Governor Shirakawa talked a lot a lot about consensus, but also of course the the demographics of Japanese society and in that context reaching consensus about How to do the reallocation of resources to probably try and benefit Younger generations of kind of greater birth rate, etc. That becomes harder. Doesn't it professor? Which professor I'll call you governor I don't myself as a professor, but anyway, I seem to you The I the Eventually the as I said the the Okay, first of all, uh, the the I don't know the English connotation of consensus the The the consensus is of course not unanimous But by consensus, I mean reasonable majority who support this and this policy and All the citizens have a different feeling on the one hand, they are always complaining about The decrease in their pension But at the same time The all the elderly people are caring about what would happen to their children or grandchildren In that sense, they have they are having long-run perspective. So if someone Comes to explain What is the end result of of the status score? Then those people who are who are against the at the quote-unquote reform Might the Support those measures. So there is no silver plate and the If society the we we do this kind of effort collectively Then eventually the the preferred The consensus might be forced eventually and the preferred policy might pursue and that is my expectation So i'll try this yana gawa san Is that i don't want to offend the japanese by by tempting this is that if i can address you like that Is that uh, are you optimistic as well that that that change will happen and is happening? Uh, yes in some sense that uh optimistic that uh as shirakas and Stress the implementation is a very big problem for japanese policies That most of the policy most of necessary policies are recognized by many of the key persons But it is difficult to realize that policies that is uh Big big problem for japan and taking time to implement the policies but Gradually it's taking the time But the policies are changing So support for the young families support for the children's now gradually improving it taking time but Comparing to the 10 years ago the situation is much better than 10 years ago So in that sense, i'm pessimistic, but it's taking two time. There's this very negative side So very we should more speed up the change of the policies But people's mind and the consensus as shirakas and stress shirakas as definitions Consensus are changing and the policies are gradually changing. So in that sense, i'm pessimistic Also, there i think there's not japan is certainly not alone in this um In terms of the impact of covet making all countries be become a little bit more inward looking But of course japan In contrast to most Of the developed countries like australia the u.s And much of europe has has been very anti immigration Although i understand i appreciate your point that that's been changing now shiraka shirakaosan um said that um That's even at six to seven hundred thousand. I think you said immigration would be needed and that was just not sustainable um Do you think that uh the attitude to immigration is also going to change and that that can have any ability to Change those demographics in in japan or is that just not realistic? um The purple it depends upon how japanese uh japan come back to pre pre-covid The era and for the time being the the number of inflow of ring workers is reduced to Very small number, but after after covet 19 is over my guess is the inflow of Of foreign workers will be surely increasing but The problem is how to raise the per capita income and The the type of foreign workers Who whom japan is now receiving is Basically low-skill workers. So there's a competition between low competition of low-skill workers between japanese and non-japanis And but as long as this trend continues, it doesn't mean that increase in per capita income And the decision is worsen because of decline in population, which means that yeah, so my answer is It it does change the situation of japanese economy to some extent, but It doesn't solve the fundamental problem facing facing japanese citizens i'm not i'm not the The patria. I'm not a parol. I'm not holding a parochial view of Meaning the exclusion of foreign workers. We have to and that is a reality. So by necessity We have to receive more foreign workers but just Just receiving more foreign workers is not a fundamental solution to the problem what japan is going which japan is going in our face ianakawa san Yes Do you agree with that in terms of immigration? Not being as being a long-term solution really the The impact of that COVID-19 is very Temporal one. I think that the japanese economy might change the situation of COVID-19 the japanese economy inviting the many foreign workers And that we'd like to invite our high skilled workers as well But in order to impact the gdp macro level So we we have to introduce so many workers. So many immigrants and i'm thinking that's Not so realistic for japanese society can be Accommodate it can accommodate those huge number of foreign different cultures workers and one i'm Expecting possibility is the online Workers by using this kind of a zoom or online so online cross border workers, of course, that's the Contribution of those workers are limited But by inviting the those kinds of temporal at least the temporal stay in japan and And most of the working time is Stain in australia and other countries Those kind of workers can be Contributed to the japanese economy very much and they're not so stressful for the japanese society I'm just introducing so many online cross border workers one possibility. I'm hoping One of the things that i went to japan obviously a few years ago now, but what was Really struck me was the incredible technological sophistication of japan's most productive companies And yet I'd go to other companies and they would still be using paper Work in a in a way that just amazed me that it was so not Digitized Again, is that changing how is it changing quickly enough? Do you need more government policies to encourage that or is that part of a mindset and do you see Shirakawa-san that that gap between low productivity and high productivity firms increasing Japanese society is heading for the good direction in terms of embracement of IT technology But but having said that the speed is very slow And this is not because The government is doing a kind of sabotage rather because japanese society is so Kind to all kind of people Case in point I'm always referring to my experience when I returned from singapore to japan Tokyo Some months ago and the japanese government From today the rule had changed, but until yesterday And the rule was that the japanese The people Coming to japan have to take a PCR testing Within 72 hours of arrival And the information should be incorporated in install into my iphone app and so I Thought that everything is done digitally and Like what singapore was doing when I arrived at singapore airport And in tokyo When I try to go through immigration the Of course, I presented my iphone, but before that many people many staff the immigration office There and they are explaining now we you you have to present your your smartphone now you have to Next step is This and this and their experience and I guess that those those staff Try to be kind to the old people who are not so good at using that kind of The the item and this is just small example So even though technically we have digitalization, but at the same time The japan society always asked to to Be to take care of those people who cannot Embrace those fruit of technology and in the process the We need dual process Which means declining productivity. So that is not not about regulation that's about How government read possible reaction from And the many and the many walks of life and that is a subtle path. Yeah. Yes. So again gauss and I I think also You talked about the growth of innovative smaller companies in japan again, do they How do they manage to escape from that type of mindset? that the governor was talking about that So the mindset is changing that one example is Undergraduate student of the tokyo universities For example 10 years ago or 15 years ago Most of the students Working start to work at big companies big traditional companies or bureaucrats But nowadays most of the undergraduate student try to Start Make a startup companies Or just going to the venture companies and making their technologies To realize So the behavior of the japanese one young people's drastically changing. So the mindset will change The in the new future I think so In that sense that I like to stress that the japanese government the japanese big companies facing Very inefficient So labor intensive paperworks So even by doing that kind of inefficient works So those companies can realize some kind of profits and some kind of low But positive Profit So I think this is a potential So by changing the situation By digitalization that if they can They don't have to such kind of inefficient paperworks They have a chance to make a more productive works And the more they raise their productivity So that the necessary policy is to stimulate that kind of movement understand so So By the change of jobs by change of the work So they they can more productive Works and more they can show them more productive Tivity. So that is necessary to support the world by the japanese government Yeah, I'm aware that I said I'd leave room for questions So if anybody wants to ask a question, please just raise your hand and we'll send a mic There is a person up the back there While we get that mic to them. I will just start another question, which is the The impact of the economic security laws Obviously many companies are doing this Of many countries rather How big of a problem is that in terms of Create a stifling innovation or is that just one of the things that we have to live with? Governor I'm not expert on economic security issues But for obvious reason The I can understand the the the intention the Motivation behind introducing this kind of measure But viewed from purely economic viewpoint Yeah It is It has a lot of Adversarial effects And Yeah, that is only that is only what I can say All right, we just get this the question up from up for the audience Yeah, thank you for this Yeah, thank you for this kind chance to Asking the question. My name is Gali. I'm study master of asian pacific studies. Thank you for your detailed presentation Kira Sawasan and also Yana Gawasan I want to ask two things first about immigrants Is there any Detailed policy from japanese government regarding the How japan's accept the immigrant workers because Even though the data says that in 2016 that japan has the top five accepting the immigrants work, how Do they regulate Because I think the yana gawasan also Or kira sawasan mentioned that there is a conflict of low-skill workers between japan's and also immigrants and the second one is about the appliance of it within the company of japan because My wife has experienced the working in the company of manufacturing in japan and Until kofit happens she say that Everything is still going in traditional way even during kofit. There's a lot of lockdowns, but the production must continue but the manager and that's called the management cannot accept the The appliance of work remote working or something like Shifting their Production methods or something like that. So how do the government try to implement this way of Embracing the new technology. Thank you Could you answer that question yana gawasan? Yes, thank you very much. Uh first question is that Immigration yeah, the japanese government tried to So introduce some kind of skilled workers from foreign countries But uh definition of immigration is very difficult Particularly for japan so that we sometimes do not use Formerly the immigration but anyway that we try to promote the japanese government tried to promote uh Foreign workers particularly that's skilled foreign workers to uh contribute to japanese economy and uh japanese Economy must provide very good circumstances For those uh productive workers So that's uh, the Japanese Very apparent Japanese policy so that you can view some of the change of the policies in the near future, I think and uh, the second answer to the second question is that Yes, now still that the japanese uh big companies are very tradition Keep tradition style tradition in your center style So it is difficult for the government directly to force the change to those private companies So that the way the government can do is two things One is promoting the new companies startups those startups will use the more efficient technologies It is directly in order to survive in the market And the second way is the promoting So change of the government rules, for example that hanko's paperwork So the some most of the paperwork is Necessary by the government rules to submit to some government document to to to The bureau class or to the work governments So by changing the government rules who are using the papers So that could change the behavior of the companies that is very urgent and the necessary policy. So Uh, now try to now promoting that kind of policies Peter dr. I still had a Question. Thanks. Uh, peter dr. I still in you here Thanks very much shirokawa son and go son for very interesting presentations indeed just on the Migration and demographic things. I think it's useful to get this in a bit of perspective here if Japan had the equivalent migration program to australia adjusting for population size You'd have a migration intake of about a million a year which would solve shirokawa's problem So i'm firmly of the view that not only can japan have a higher level of migration But it should have a higher level of migration, but that won't solve All the problems we're talking about here. So let's start from the viewpoint that that's not going to solve the problems anytime soon So one of the problems and I think there's a strong consensus between shirokawa son and yanagawa son That productivity is everything really productivity is where we have to begin And and what's the issue here? The data that shirokawa son threw up are very interesting in this respect and what they revealed was that Lower productivity firms tend to persist longer in japan than in other countries that have a higher productivity performance And we're we're becoming worried about exactly the same thing in australia frankly Lower productivity firms persist much longer in australia than they should we have some kind of competition problem for some reason or other And we need to do reforms to address that So in in japan What what is the issue here? I think the other data that you threw up was very interesting And it relates to your observation that we don't want to move in japan to an american style free market economy because that Brings all sorts of terrible social divisions and strife And we don't here in australia want to move to such a society either So what kind of society do you want? And when you look at your other data there, what that revealed was that labor mobility and productivity highly associated with strong performances Not only in the united states, but also in scandinavia, which have very different social welfare systems and protection systems So my question to both of you is really What are your priorities both for reforms on? the firm side or on on on on the composition side and on the social welfare system side that would change the japanese system To emphasize as yanagawa said market mechanisms over social protection At the expense of market mechanisms and higher productivity performance Okay Thank you for your question and it's a deep Question and frankie speaking. I do not have clear cut answer, but I Some comment I I stress the importance of productivity But I emphasize two things. One is productivity. The answer is effort at and the increasing workforce or the population and because the we cannot the These two things are Not completely different thing. And as I said, both are Interrelated through very subtle mechanism. So we need both effort. That is one thing I should say And the how to strike the balance between efficiency and stability is Quite difficult choice and there is no Uniform uniformly true answer And every society has its own value judgment And also value judgment itself changes in response to change in economic conditions and Based on my personal philosophy I given the reality of demographics Our society should be put more emphasis on efficiency compared with a previous time and that is my philosophy but I fully admit that each person has a different philosophy so I do not want economists Is intrusive in value judgment Ultimately, that should be decided by by by political process But just to say voting is everything is not Right and the informed judgment is needed. So that's why I always stress the importance of discussion and supporting research And but if I'm asked my personal philosophy I Given the reality we should place more emphasis on efficiency. Otherwise, our society is not sustainable Uh, Yenkao-san Yes, thank you very much for very important questions and I I cannot answer totally but Uh, fully but uh, I pointed out two important things. I'm thinking about the productivity And the market mechanism deregulation For the entry and exit is important and at first for example 10 years ago I I believed that deregulation and exit from the market by the low productive farms are important to raise up the gross rate but uh, I I understood that is not the full package of the policy I would like to write the stress So the entry is necessary just for promoting the exit is inefficient At least for Japanese economy to promote the productivity or to promote the gross rate Introducing the new companies Uh, the promoting the new business and promoting the new Young workers coming into the new market That's it's necessary to promote the new field and promote the gross rate So that entry and exit So just not only the exit just introducing the entry is necessary to promote the market mechanism the behavior of the competition of the farms So that's the one reason I stress the The startup The importance of startups The second point is the labor mobility and the gross rate Yes, that that's this correlation between the labor mobility and the startups Even gross rate. So once again 10 years ago, I I believe in that promoting the labor mobility Just the deregulation of the Uh, labor protection is necessary to promote the labor mobility and the economic gross rate But once again, I recognize that is insufficient In order to promote the labor mobility some kind of re-skilling or recurrent education is necessary to change the job Appropriately for the workers Without those kinds of new skill new skill set to move out to the company other companies So Japanese workers are hesitate to move out to the other field or the other companies And they try to keep in the mark keeping the same company even if they have no chance to Raise up their skill and raise up the productivity So this is the behavior particularly in Japan So that's promoting kind of recurrent education re-skilling education Is necessary to promote labor mobility and promote a new Possibility of the those workers so that I stress the investment to the human capital Is the one Because of those That's my second answer Thank you um now governor you talked earlier in your speech about Countries and banks and governments in many ways learning the wrong lessons From from japan we we now have a situation where japan is really standing aside from So many other countries who are all raising rates Quite dramatically in some cases from very low. Are they on the wrong path now and will this in fact lead to recessions first of all Many set banks in many advanced equal and many countries are now raising interest rate Which is quite understandable, which I support and I do not want to make comment on bang japan's current monetary policy, but as you can imagine From what I said in my initial presentation Just relying on monetary easing is not solution Rather continuing with extremely monetary easing is counterproductive. So aside from timing Aside from rhetoric Just relying on continuing monetary easing is not solution. That's my response Yes, but of course you've also got the level of debt that japan has now How do you how does the country the economy manage with that? Particularly if interest rates do rise even a little uh, the country investors, okay, country the Anyway, up until recently the very low interest rate prepared globally. So japan's fiscal station Could be sustainable And but eventually given that the interest rate is rising globally. I don't think japan Could continue with the current low interest rate forever. So eventually At least the long-term interest rate might start to increase And if japan's government is not engaged with serious fiscal reform then investors might Might lose some kind of credibility. So, uh, in order for that kind of thing to happen uh Japanese government Have to do be serious about fiscal reform together with economic reform So, uh, you raised a question in terms of how bank japan should cope in this new environment But this is a bit narrow What is needed is how government Should implement fiscal and economic reform That's my answer to your question. Okay. Um, now yana gaverson you you talked, uh, about the importance of energy, uh, I and the fact that oil prices are controlled by the government And yet we're in the middle of an energy transition, which is proving very very expensive obviously for Many countries in in europe, uh, with what's going on as well What do you think the japanese economy? What impact is this going to have on the japanese economy? Particularly if um europe for example goes into recession, which looks extremely likely Now the japanese government and japan companies Try to Consider that this, uh, energy transformation is a chance for the investment for them So they are trying to There is a possibility to promote a new technology To support the transformation So this if they succeed some kind of, uh, uh, technology to support, uh, sustainable energies Does it be chance? so that of course that Transformation is costly and kind of the burden for the economy, but there is a chance So that uh government try to promote investment or taking a chance for the japanese company to promote a new technology investments But do you think for example that japan's current dependence on australian l and g will diminish over time? uh, I don't think so that in general japanese Has a big energy program so that Many sorts any sorts of the energy supply is important for japan so that they keep that relationship, I guess so, um Then another quick i'm again open for questions if anybody wants. Oh, we've got a question just there Hi, uh, thanks for the very insight for our talk Going back to the issue of immigration. I'm sorry returning the conversation back a bit The importance of productivity is stressed by our both professors here, and I absolutely agree but as Currently in japan pension is tied to average income and if productivity rise incomes rise and as well pensions must rise or otherwise Inequality will rise so I I've thought that immigration are introducing a larger number of immigration and reducing that dependency Ratio is the only way you can reduce the burden on those currently employed those currently employed To prevent further ballooning in the cost of social security But what would your opinions be on that? Thank you I'm sorry. I couldn't understand Your question exactly The the could you say your question more concrete? um So pension is currently tied to income And income is related to productivity So if we raise productivity incomes will rise and as a result pension payments will result rise So the ratio of cost between social security and total income Won't change even if Productivity does rise and I feel like the only way that can be resolved is introducing more number of workers itself through immigration Alongside productivity reforms and I was wondering what your sort of views might be on that the the design of a pension system is The Determined by the three factors One is the economic growth or productivity growth the other is at The age At which people start getting the pension the other the third element is The rate and the income of retiree Too relative to the work and the income of worker. So fundamentally the three parameters determines the pension system And in this context Suppose we receive more foreign workers and if those foreign workers are really skilled labor Then productivity Level could be increased, which is very beneficial for the average pension income But otherwise Just increase mere increase in the number of The foreign workers doesn't show the fundamental problem facing the pension system So I'm not against receiving more foreign workers but I don't think receiving more foreign workers could improve the pension situation Unless We succeed in receiving more skilled foreign workers Uh Last question says somebody just here as well Hi, I'm Joel Rathas from the prime minister's department. Can you just speak up a little? I will speak louder. Hi. I'm Joel Rathas I'm from the prime minister's department. I have a quick question So australia is doing a review of its central bank looking to learn from others And one question is about the relationship between monetary policy makers and fiscal policy makers Just to make sure that macroeconomic policy is is consistent So as you may know at the end of last year, australia walked away from the rba our central bank walked away from our yield curve control policy It was very sudden Basically, it was 80 basis points and our target was 10 basis points It had to end that obviously has some fiscal implications So I think japan still has its very loose Monetary policy settings in in place and you mentioned that some of these decisions are technically easy That politically is a is a is that is the question the question of timing and how to message and all those kinds of things So for big policy changes like that Is this the kind of thing that Japan considers in the in the fiscal context does it take it to the cabinet to talk to kante about those issues? And what's the sort of relationship now that's evolving between Ministry of finance and and bank of japan through the I couldn't hear what is the relationship between what and what between bank of japan and ministry of finance I am not setting governor So I don't know what is the relationship between the government or the ministry of finance and bank japan currently But based on my experience, it depends on personality of a finance minister or prime minister or governor Also, it depends on economic condition And When I was a governor between Between 2008 and 2013 My impression is Most of prime ministers does understand that deflation is not a fundamental problem of japanese economy in private But at the same time many ministers When many ministers Ask about his or her view in private in public Then they often frame the problem in terms of deflation in terms of monetary policy That is a sad reality And if that kind of element is strong then The relationship between central bank and the government could become 10th Otherwise it is good. So it depends on the The personality and it depends on economic condition. That's that's what I can say Would you like to add anything to that? professor Yenna gabelson Is it me? Yes I asked in my talk Yes on that. Yes. Sorry But I couldn't understand Yes that I think the policy the economic policy is complicated so that Not only the monetary policy affect The prices level or the inflation to inflation level or exchange rate So that policy mix A kind of coordination among the policies Monetary policy fiscal policy or deregulation policy or structural reform policies Those kind of policy mixes is necessary. That is obvious But the difficult question is the task is keeping the independence of the central bank and Necessarily how to Realize the necessary combination of the policy necessary make policy mix to realize So that is very difficult task and the formal and informal discussions are necessary And as silakerson said the informal discussion is much depending upon the personality And the very unstable some sense But anyway that I'm going to I would like to stress that now that In order to control the monetary situation appropriately in japan Not only bank of japan and that the Totally the government and bank of japan should coordinate to appropriate market situation To realize That's that's I like to stress. Thank you. Well, I think the governor said initially that they were Despite having in many ways a slightly pessimistic talk that he was optimistic Because the real issue was to debate and look at the the proper issues Rather than getting off onto long paths. I think what we've done this morning is is Made a very good beginning on that for today So I'd like to thank very much both our speakers for what has been a really really interesting discussion Thank you to both of you And now I believe we're heading to lunch. Is that correct? Thank you. Thank you very much. Enjoy Okay, I hope you enjoyed your lunch But there is no danger of you all falling into a post-lunch torpa Because our next speaker is going to keep you on the edges of your seat The next keynote Is by professor Sawako Shirahase from the university of tokyo She had stern words with me beforehand She said don't introduce me. Just tell them my name and let's get on with it Which tells you a little bit about her forthright nature But that's a great thing because when we hear about contemporary japanese society We don't need platitudes and we don't need repetition of headlines We need analysis and insight and our next speaker is incredibly well equipped To deliver that and i'm sorry, but i'm doing it anyway. Thank you. So Professor Shirahase is currently director of the university of tokyo center for contemporary japanese studies a professor of sociology at the graduate school of humanities and sociology at the university of tokyo And in case you're wondering how she manages all this I know she has cloned herself because she is also senior vice rector at the united nations university So you have to stay awake because she is so far ahead of all of us In terms of energy and achievement that it's going to take our collective energy to keep up with her Please welcome for the sociology keynote Professor Sawako Shirahase Thank you. Such a great interaction Ricky and it's really honor And I also feel a kind of nervous to make you know You know keeping awake. So, uh, you know, if i'm you know, I'm talking very boring I'm sure you can be you know, uh, boldly asleep. But anyway, I I I'd like to Share what i'm thinking of today And uh, you know topic which I you know, uh, which I you know God with something on the covet 19 doesn't say You can't hear yes Yes This one It's better. It doesn't say anything Can you hear better now? Yes Okay, so I I won't use this one. Okay, so uh again, so uh today's uh topic on my presentation is japan now Gender-based super age society under the covet 19 I'm a sociologist so called social demographer and my field in sociology is social inequality social certification I trained in in states and mainly in uh in britain And my specialty was social mobility issues So surprisingly or luckily my talk is somehow related to syarcava senses talk Because I I very much interested in what he said even though he's a macroeconomist But the one i'm thinking and right now is quite close. Sometimes it's a common Common with what i'm thinking of so I will show some a lot of data today And to let you know what's it happened or let you feel What what are the happening in in japan? So this is a kind of basic, you know statistics What did happen in covet 19 and still the japanese society is close, you know Outsiders that this is a very political issues But again, this is a very challenging time for japan because mainly because How we can collaborate actually how specialists And the how scholars and researchers specializing in some particular field Can collaborate with policy makers. So that's a really urgent issue But I have to confess it doesn't work. Well, it didn't work well But like, you know syarcava sense and the other yonagawa sense as well, you know Keen to collaborate such a different kind of specialist or together to see some common goal So that I like to talk mainly three topics and demographic trend and expand the most age society Including declining fertility rate. So my talk is quite close to what syarcava sense talked, you know Another another girl and behind this kind of demographic transformation There's a persistent gender norms relations Even though the families an individual way of life are changing in japan This kind of gap makes the things complicated and that's why, you know, younger people in particular or the woman, you know Keep away from very important critical issues in japan. Maybe and finally, you know What i'm thinking of for the future of positive positive post-covid-19 pandemic Okay, so the here is overview. What did they happen in japan? So demographically The the fertility rate is the more important indicator To explain over all demographic structure. So this is a very classic research in demography either Fertility rate or the mortality rate has Has you know more important, you know, explanatory power to determine the fertility rate And then in 1960s and then, you know, british demographer finding out, uh, You know, uh fertility rate is more important indicator to To explain overall Um demographic structure So here is an fertility rate And an important thing is among the asia There is a you know High drop in fertility rate in particular time Actually, I showed this since 1970s, but after I showed this 1960s and 50s in japan has exactly the same pattern The high drop in fertility rate had occurred in 1950s And as a result along with You know expansion of the longevity and the percentage of the age Those aged people Increasing and very uh steeply in japan. So this is a kind of a demographic, you know trend and This is a more visually can see the 1965 1965 when japanese economy enjoyed their Miracle of Economic growth. So we have we are we have been very lucky to have Very high quality and really being low in a waste labor force It can uh could be found actually within within the society So japan is a kind of rare society to achieve high economic growth error without inviting or Introducing migration. I think this is a kind of Past sexist story To make things moved. I think one of the reasons why some japanese politicians do not, you know Believe or in regards how important not only the domestic labor market But also the foreign labor market as well and not only high school labor market But also the low skilled labor market as well And here is an you know close to now. This is a current, you know, uh pyramid of demography demographic structure So it's a kind of metamorphism. It can be seen right here Very low percentage of young people and these young people gradually enter to the work in aged people But once you enter the old age, you know, uh stage you cannot get rid of anything, you know, uh anywhere So the social expenditure is increasing Actually the as a result and here is 100 years between the two, you know, uh Demography a pyramid you can see over all sides of the population has shrunk and You know, uh, the the very aged people Uh increasing relatively to other, you know, uh other age groups If the anything doesn't change, you know, uh largely including Including immigration policies. So here is a kind of demographic Projection we said the projection not estimate projection means if you see the future Where you are standing So if the the reality Where you're standing a change of course in the future will be changed Uh, there are the couple, you know estimations for the future But the point is you can see the very, uh, uh declining overall, you know, size of the population So the aging population, uh can lead declining the size of the population after Fertility rate it doesn't increase because even though the nowadays and you know, healthy, uh elderly are Can be found but expected longevity As on average in the shrunk so if the proportion of the elderly is increased the overall size of the population Has declining. This is a quite natural consequences. Okay so, uh But then at uh from the demographic point of view and we have two kinds of dependent Demographic groups one is a younger age group who will be Working age in 10 or 15 years And then the other one is the old age. So nowadays the ratio of Young to old, you know age group are declining. So in other words, we have rather higher than sociality to take care of the old people And again, this is a percentage of in the 50 years. So as a result, uh, the social expenditure in japan are increasing and particularly social expenditure related to the old age in a policies increasing so our Basic structure of social security system skewed to the elderly people in 1960s However in 1960s the percentage of those age 65 are not that large nobody can predict We have such a large number of the people and um, you know Here is that you can see that what is the social benefit by category from 1970 to 2018 You can see the pensions are quite high and the medicine medical care Is also getting increasing But on the other hand, well welfare and other categories In that nowadays is the increasing but still the lower percentage behind of it You know, we are very much dependent on so-called, you know function of the families The families can be uh, has been regarded as a major institution to provide basic Library security So in fact a lot of elderly people has been has lived in a so-called three generation household So they can enjoy actually all the people enjoy the basic substantial Socials the library services within the household So this is one of the key point I'd like to emphasize. This is my colleague demographer new each kind echo He isn't, you know, such a great demographer She has been the head of the national institute of population social security research And then he actually I I I you know, uh Talked in the same session about a week ago and then he showed this kind of estimation So this isn't, you know, uh graph. What's going to happen? What's going to happen a degree of declining fertility rate after the combi 19 So I borrowed from them from, you know, Connecticut slides. So, uh, You can see the Japanese but thing is Here is an, you know, based on the projection most recent projection of fertility rate And this red a red line denotes the, you know, an actual observed Fertility rate the gap between estimation and actual Actual fertility rate has increasing however declining of fertility or more than expected had started Before the COVID-19 So the COVID-19 it's rather difficult to causality causal relationship What are going to happen and particularly once the negative impact or positive impact on Individual behavior this hard to judge But so that this is also the one he, you know, emphasized. I do agree with it We cannot Define what's going to happen during the COVID-19 again, you know negative consequences such as individual fertility behavior including individual fertility behavior or marital behavior Had started before the COVID-19 in japan I think this is one of the key thing key point which I like to emphasize So the water the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on Asian population declining fertility So the first question is the increase in the number of deaths among the elderly Yes, it was actually unfortunately. So this is you know, demographically We have the large growth of, you know, the people because of that Asian population Not only in japan, but also other developing countries, maybe in the future and in australia as well So the negative impact on the fertility behavior lowering fertility. Yes, and no, we have not sure So what did happen behind the demographic change? Maybe unequal consequences have made society the globe as a whole divided Maybe that might be true, but not only the COVID-19 pandemic pursue But maybe we have the responsibility as a society, you know, it's not that negative So in other words because of COVID-19 we have such a large divided society That's not true because this is our responsibility to make the society such divided So the critical factor in declining fertility rate, this is two factors One is a structural reason in which the, you know, in which the number of the parents to be Decrining because of the declining fertility rate the number of them are shrunken So the number of the people who become parents are declining. This is a structural reason We can't change it that drastically because the demographic structure has, you know, to go why to change So this is a structural, you know, factor and behavior reason among such a declining number of the parents Their behavior changing they no longer have a larger number of People but of course this this is not the universal and some very young people and a particularly young Young women happen to get pregnant before the marriage The number of them are increasing But the overall this number is quite minority because we can see the delay in the marriage as a whole on the macro level But then even though the number itself is really small But some teenage couples had the baby So once you started your first baby born and you are more likely to have a more number of the children This is demographically demographically in peak of approved. So I showed very briefly what's going to happen And um and um COVID-19 pandemic And so again With Japanese labor market has been or still is a farmer is segregated by gender This is a quite, you know famous fact And where they walk and how they receive the reward and how they're promoted And all aspects has been, you know, heterogeneous or unequal by gender Of course the gender is not just a dummy variable and in fact in Japan there is very active argument And you know diversity and gender but that today I'd like to focus on only, you know, man and woman at this point But in all areas clear gender gap has been persuasive and between man and woman So Shirakawa sensei and the Anagawa sensei and they're quite persistent based on persistent norm And regulations how we can make a change That's the important that's I'm very much interested in it Again, visually you can see what happened very easily This is a number of the people who left the labor market after the COVID-19 Here is a male, you know figures. Here is a few male figures And April, you know, you can see around this time all the Japanese schools are closed formally so moms in particular has to leave them, you know, has to leave them labor market However, if you are the one parent's families, long mom families They can they could not afford to leave the labor market because she's the one who, you know, raise the kids and You know support them their families. So the within the few male, you know, within the woman And there are the very different behavior against the COVID-19 but still The number of the people who left or who, you know, out of the labor market is much much higher among men So the Japan as you know, they're very much segregated by the type of the employment So the women are more likely concentrated in a part-time work and not regular work So among women, there are quite a larger number of the women who has worked as a part-time work can be a much much larger, but you can see the larger drop and male, male also of course they are suffering. I did not say that men didn't suffer at all But in fact, some of the low educated men are suffering The negative impact of COVID-19 as much as male. That's that's true But as a whole in a macro structure, a woman's situation is much worse And this is a kind of, you know, attitude type of the situation, you know, if you This is a lot of, you know, characters in there, but you know Tailwalking is one of the very high potential way of walking and they say it is easier to You know, easier to make it The balance work in life balance and it easier. However, you know You know, half walking is not that easy, I have to say So if you did a good job within the household, you have to get used to doing the job And women, you know, tend to say They're very much stressful and more stressful than before because he has to take care of many things in their home And in fact, women claim a more likely compared to women claim to have more time for the household Housework, so reputation or some kind of feeling towards what happened during the COVID-19 are quite different between men, between men and women And here is a kind of, you know, a data result How many hours do you You Spend more time and childcare and housework and walking walking. So the man and the woman You know, particularly telecommunication, you know, maybe they can spend more time at home and however, absolute number of, you know, spending hours in a time within At home are quite different between men and women And Oh, did I get tired? Oh, no That's your Yeah, this is mine, right? Okay Okay, thanks. So, uh, again Ah, okay too. Okay. So, uh, I have so many so maybe I should rush Japan is again highly gender-segregated society. And um, this is, you know, main fact So the way of, you know, participating in a labor market are quite different and how to work and very different Women are concentrated in a part-time work, which is not accumulated as a career Even though the way of, you know, walking is slightly different by age group and a cohort And um, in fact, you know, some of them, you know, the way of walking Less, uh, intermittent or destructive in their life course, but this is an, you know, a kind of overall, you know, pattern of working More, uh, labor force participation rate by age group. So you can see continuous life, uh, working life. So, um Staying being the single, single means staying in the labor market But once you get, uh, get children, they're more likely to leave. But nowadays majority of mom of the first child are likely to stay in the labor market This is an, you know, uh, important transition and we do need more support to, you know, uh, to to work and Work in the family and a gender gap is really high in japan And the part-time work is really high compared with other, you know, other countries And this is in, you know, place where, you know, uh, man and woman are walking again You know, uh, the woman are more likely to stay in the medicine healthcare and welfare areas And then, you know, wholesale areas some, you know, uh Service areas as well. It's quite, uh, unevenly divided And then the important thing is among the, uh, the men and women with higher education How many of the employment rate, uh, between men and women? This is a kind of comparison So higher means, higher bar means a larger difference and employment rate among those with higher education So this is overall rate. There's no, uh, taking, taking into account to age difference and cohort difference But then, you know, a japanese woman, even though they get higher education They're less likely to stay in the labor market So maybe because they cannot, uh, have the, you know, uh, support for the healthcare. I don't know, but that's that's a kind of, uh, I shouldn't say I don't know. This is true But I said there is no rigid causality issues Um, uh, this is, um, you know, how small, uh, the japanese and female managers Because nobody expects to, uh, normally expect a woman, uh, climbing up the carrier ladder This is true for, uh, for the male managerial people, but also the women themselves Didn't expect, uh, their, uh, climbing up the carrier ladder So, um, the changing way of life within Japan can be seen In fact, marital, you know, the situation of, uh, families are quite, you know, different Again, now, uh, Japan, the one person families and a couple of the families are the majority Not the families with a couple, uh, with couple and children. They are not the majority anymore And this is a kind of interesting, you know, statistics about marital, uh, marriage, divorce and remarriage Um, more likely getting remarried these days and, um, Divorce rate is not that really, really low But again, uh, you can see the first marriage, marriage and declining And this is because of the delay in the marriage and, um, remarriage rate is also It's kind of stable, but it's not that small, uh, nowadays So I like, you know, this is a very, I like this, this, you know, um Figures which I made by myself within about, you know, for the years and in difference, you know Gender gap in spending time for unpaid work, so-called household chores, childbearing, and long-term care, you know F, we, uh, we set, um, few men average in 100 You can see a kind of improvement among men to spend their, uh, spend their time for Unpaid work, so-called, but then if you look at, you know, uh, working, uh, pay work, You know, the situation doesn't change that much Again, you can see the improvement, I'm not sure the improvement or not But anyway, the women are more likely to spend more time in the labor market And, but this is becoming equal, but the women are more like, less likely to get married having an, you know, uh, Event, uh, doesn't occur to have a children, you know, uh, doesn't occur So this is the main reason why the women and show that, you know, larger, uh, higher Spending time in labor market, but after the 30th and 40th, there's no much, uh, difference in the way of, uh, The work, so the structure of family change, the marriage and the childbirth behavior also changed But again, the gender norms of expectation and playing roles in family, workplace, community and politics And doesn't change at all, uh, substantially So this is the three points, I like, here is a, I'm sorry, this is a kind of, you know, out of my time But the three points I like to, um I like to discuss, the three points which we need, diversity Flexibility and investment So or taking a risk, this is a, you know, three point I like to, uh, emphasize the inevitable trend of declining for this array And population size, this is inevitable And how do we break Japan's thick and rigid war against various social norms, very conservative social norms of values Related to gender, family in various social system Including social security system is very important indeed And inclusive future with innovation, so-called, should be a one of the common role And the key is how to promote investment to so-called human being and as the Yonagawa-san also emphasized Particularly the younger generation, uh, who could be apparent to be And how to allocate financial resources to them is also very, very important indeed But thing is we cannot see any kind of consequences immediately You know, we take a longer time to see what's going to happen this investment So with the Shirakawa-sensei, how to, you know, reach the consensus that's getting more and more difficult So the mutual discourse, uh, happened to be the same thing I didn't discuss about the beforehand But then the mutual discourse is very important with various people So diversity is very important indeed And flexible development, flexibility is one of the weakest point in Japan actually Because of the rigid, they can achieve something But now it's being rigid is very, very negative And in order, do you need assessment or we do need multi-level, multi-dimensional criteria To assess, you know, how the people achieve, how they, you know, uh, work So that's going to be a very important indeed I think that's, that's, I'd like to, um, talk today To thank, uh, Professor Shirakawa-sensei In the interests of time, I'd like to move straight to the sociology panel Professor Shirakawa-sensei is on this panel Please keep your questions burning Somewhere inside you, you will have a chance to ask them After the panel has convened Thank you To the sociology panel and thank you for that wonderful keynote Obviously COVID-19 has had a huge impact on Japanese society We've started to unpack some of these impacts in recent Japan updates last year and the year before But obviously as the pandemic unfolds, we're now in the third year Those impacts, um, change And we've also heard this morning a lot about the state of the Japanese economy But in today's panel, what we'd like to do is get more into the detail Of how COVID has changed work lives and work practices in Japan How it has shaped gender issues. We're going to delve into that further And also how it has impacted the sort of COVID discourse in Japan How it has affected, um, basically the way Japanese sort of, you know, look at illness How it's manifested in pop culture forms even, in anime And we're joined by a very esteemed panel today We've already heard a wonderful introduction from Riki Kirsten of Professor Shirahase But I'm also delighted to be joined here by Professor Hiroshi Ono Who is a professor of human resources management and also director of the executive master of business administration program at the school of international corporate strategy at Hitotsubashi University And we're also, um, being joined, I believe Soon, okay Language and also Japanese studies here at the ANU. She's also a distinguished educator As many of you are also aware, Carol is engaged in a very heroic battle against brain cancer and has just had surgery She was hoping she would have recovered to the extent that she could join us in person today and And also to join us verbally, but unfortunately she's undergoing a lot of challenges I hope she will appear with us, but in any case I have sent her the questions in advance and she sent me her responses So I think if there's one thing we've learned from COVID and this pandemic is that we we should be able to be very flexible with our arrangement So I'm just really delighted and humbled that she's able to Contribute to the panel regardless of of her really Delicate condition So first, um We're gonna I'm going to ask a few questions to our panelists, but I encourage all of you to Think of your own questions. You may have some questions from the keynote And people listening online, please send through the questions and and we'll also get to them as well So I'd like to start with professor honor Obviously the COVID-19 pandemic has has really had a massive impact on The way that Japanese work, okay This is something we've seen globally, but it's also played out a little bit differently in Japan I was wondering if you could speak to us about Both the sort of positive and negative impacts that COVID has had on the the work lives of people in Japan Okay, thank you very much Lauren for that introduction. Um, first of all, it's very Honoured to be here. It's a pleasure to be here Um, are there students in the audience that? Yes. Yes, it's it's wonderful to see the The future of australian right joining us Um, uh, I encourage you to if you have any questions, please post them at any time Um, so the question was about the good and bad things about what happened to work in Japan post COVID and It's very much related to what? We discussed in the morning panel with uh, Shirakasa and Yanagawa san and I think there's you know, um, I'm gonna start with a very interesting quote It's it says, um The japanese are very efficient at doing inefficient things Okay, and any of you that have worked in japan or been to japan will immediately realize what that means, you know japanese people are They're not lazy. They're actually very hard-working. They're diligent Um And they're punctual, you know, and so they have good work ethic But there's there seems to be something about the way that the japanese people work that it's rather wasteful, you know It's inefficient. It's unproductive and so this shows up in the it's a micro level observation that has macro level implications And it shows up in the statistics as we saw this morning, right? So um, unproductive labor force, um, so I think the Definitely what I can say about COVID. It's that it gave us an opportunity To identify the wastes and how we work You know, because immediately, you know, we went into lockdown People had to go into isolation. They couldn't go to the office anymore People were forced to become a little bit more efficient. Remote work helped And not, you know commuting also helped, right Perhaps an appreciation for what can be done outside of work as well So maybe the boundary between work and home became a little bit more clear Um, and there's an interesting survey So like what are the four wastes that you were able to identify as if it's a lot of COVID and number one is commuting Um, because you know, especially if you live in tokyo on the great metropolitan areas, you will spend a lot of time You know, um in the trains, which is a big waste um number two is drinking after work Also known as nomikai And I could have said that, you know, I mean, I I just it's There wasn't basically it was an excuse for people to to socialize after work because we need this hour to communicate with our colleagues This is when the real work gets done But that all turns out to be bs, right? so, um And number three was hanko the stamp of approval That, uh, we need these, you know, we need to carry these little stamps to make it official Um, not even signatures. It has to be a stamp and it was a very very inefficient way It still is a very inefficient way to do to um to work because sometimes you have to wait for the right person to show up To the office in order to get something approved and this could delay the process for a couple of days And number four was just a pile of documents Um as this morning. Yes, uh, I think, um, miss huet was talking about, you know, Japanese companies are so advanced But there's still loaded with paperwork. So that is definitely a big big waste And I think it's it gave us an opportunity to really revisit those kinds of wastes, right? And I could say more about that, uh, if I have an opportunity to to say that later on but Uh, yeah, I would say it gave us an opportunity to to accelerate digital transformation That was the other thing. So going remote doing telework Perhaps reviewing this hanko culture and transitioning to digital documents and I think it just so happens that the the east asian Um forum quarterly came out Yes, last week and I have an article in that about the digital transformation in japan and I think that, you know Right give you a little glimpse of about how, you know, the state of digital transformation is still a little bit behind But I think corona kind of kick started that transformation Now going to the bad stuff Uh, new inequalities evolved, right? So Um, siraha says I'm was talk, you know talked about, uh, you know, there could be a worsening divide between You know existing gender inequality So women were more likely to be affected negatively than than men There's also a divide between standard versus non-standard workers So people in precarious positions became even more, you know, were even more affected by this Um, and the other thing that, uh, if I have time I'll talk more about is that the fertility decline, which is also what she has talked about And primarily because people decided to delay their marriage, right? That's um Unlike in many european and also I think australia as well, you know, cohabitation is not really an option So people have to be married first in order to have babies. That's another point of very strong social norms And so delaying marriage actually has a negative impact on fertility Um, so anyway, I've spoken enough and I'll have some Thank you very much. I'm particularly happy to hear about Potential changes in the the hunker culture. I think we've all had our own problems with with hunker in japan Including me actually the first time I set up a bank account in japan I had a hunker and I stamped it and I returned home My home was about an hour from the bank and as soon as I got home the bank Called me to say that I hadn't stamped it properly and I would need to come back and do it again Um, so I'm just going to move on now With a question for professor shira haset obviously a huge I don't really know what to say, but a terrible event in japan recent times has been the the sudden death of Not professor prime minister abe shinsa former prime minister abe shinsa And I think it's a good time and instead of we haven't really delved into this today is just to reflect on His women only womenomics policy the legacy of it Obviously, this was a really concerted effort By the longer serving prime minister in japan to really make some significant Change and so I was wondering what you think This womenomics policy. What does it sort of reveal about? The entrenched obstacles to sort of achieving greater Um workplace. Um, absolutely woman makes so cold This some, you know inference, you know made some Impact on the japanese society when I heard about his, you know, uh policy towards promoting You know a woman in the labor market. I thought okay He's going back to home and become out of the labor market This is a this is one of the you know way of driving force to make the japanese society You know economically successful make the woman more active And this is a quite, you know, twist and a new trick. I mean that and promoting actually Announcing his kind of the mission But okay good and bad. I have to confess But you know Division client actually rather expanding So the her and his attention is pulling up rather, you know top tier of the woman And then the some majority of the woman who stuck with you know stuck make the you know attitude survey A majority woman they don't want to, you know Work part time full time because there are too much, you know time to work with So there's a trick is basic system themselves has not changed but you know prime minister abe Announced or show his high expectation say that this is a great chance To push, you know our, you know, uh weak point is making better if You know success Wonderful. Thanks very much for that those great reflection of the interesting almost global trends We've noticed that it was particularly pronounced in the united states has been the so-called rose and Shifted to other jobs, but interestingly this phenomenon didn't seem to emerge in japan So i was wondering professor ono if you could explain why we haven't seen that So in the united states that, you know, do you have this this Unemployment levels are, you know historically quite low to begin with 15% in in a matter of months Um And then it came down, but they what what happened the great resignation Was not Uh dismissal right so these are people that are voluntarily quitting their jobs Because they revisited, you know, this again with respect to what i said earlier But i said well what is important to figure out what's important to me And in large numbers people figured out that this is not the kind of job that they wanted right So they basically walked out But who can do that who can do that it's the people that have outside options right so Great resignation is basically a phenomenon where people That are able to And what happened in japan is that You know with coveted, you know coveted hit in early 2020 And what happened to the unemployment rate? Well nothing happened virtually nothing happened to the unemployment rate And this goes back to again the earlier mornings path to whatever's happening in the economy right so Unemployment shoots up to 15 percent in united states in japan it remains virtually flat. So where is all that going? You know, so it's being again. It's being absorbed by the companies So the companies are absorbing this great massive macro level inefficiency within their organizations But nobody got laid off so You know, is that a good thing? Or a bad thing because in the morning we again we talked about the positive correlation between labor turnover labor mobility and economic growth And also labor mobility and productivity is what shirakawa sensei was talking about this morning So yes, there was no Unemployment and there's no change in unemployment But because the companies are absorbing that inefficiency It's going to have a quite prolonged recovery As a result of it and no, you know, and the united states I would protect would come out of this much faster than Japan right it's kind of like Maybe you know afterwards we can talk about this as well, but it's it's going back into macroeconomics But so that's the reason I think it's a big difference You talk about, uh, you know, Japanese, um Uh, shirakawa-san this morning talked about how the survival rates of inefficient companies are actually hiring in in japan In the united states if you look at that as an individual level inefficient workers are retained In significantly large numbers right so lifetime employment. That's basically what it is. It's that you will protect your employment um, regardless of whether You're productive or not. It's a it's a commitment that we make to the people but The trade-off is that it could, you know, have a macro level, you know, like prolong the economic recovery Very interesting. Thank you for that great explanation Um, I think the next question I'll direct to professor shirahase, but I I think perhaps, um, professor ono also would like to jump in So when talking about the demographic trends in japan and Specifically the declining fertility rate and you know the acceleration of the aging society You you took quite a bit about delayed marriage is one of the issues, but we've also seen a phenomenon Emerging especially in recent years in japan whereby many women and I guess by default men too Uh, deciding that they just want to be lifetime singles. Yeah, they have no intention of getting married and Society's even becoming restructured to accommodate these singles with special restaurants and you know accommodations for for single people So I was wondering if you could talk about what's maybe driving this phenomenon in japan Actually, uh, never married rate is rather, you know, increasing and among men is after you measure or See the you know percentage of being married at the age of 50 We can't and call it, you know, never married rate anymore But it's quite high more than, you know, one fourth or something I never married so very closely associated with disadvantage in economic situation So again the causality issues are that profounding but because they are not reaching us You know or ready enough to get married for the man side or the for the woman of the story that getting higher Leveling up The rate of being Never married but as a whole majority of the people has experienced to get married But then again the marriage status Maritime behavior are closely related to Economic situation in japan and can a various, you know You know briefly I like to touch with the honor of sense is the comment What's it that happened to mackle of a structure in any side? But I think the final goal making the mackle Structure that changed but again, I like the demographic situation Structure change is really hard to change. I make it a change But then the final goal should be make the change to mackle level Otherwise, you know within the mackle there are the many things that happen in the ever the Unemployment rate it looks like, you know, it doesn't change at all But if you're breaking down the age group and the educational levels or cohort So there are a kind of, you know Changing inside. So this is of course a compositional type of, you know factors in there But and then again, you know, it looks like it doesn't change at all But it doesn't mean necessarily things are not, you know, happening in japan. They are the happening But then it, you know, visually it's quite Profounding, you know, if you look only at them, you know mackle level situation Interesting. Would you like to add anything, Professor? I mean, I guess I could add a comment from the world of work The I think the big inequality in employment right now is this The gap between the standard versus the non-standard workers and one of the Trends that we see post bubble period Especially compared to the 1990s is we have this increasing army of non-standard workers, right? So it's getting it's getting more and more difficult to find those stable Full-time positions what we call lifetime employment, right? So The The percentage of people in non-standard employment Are It's like 40% now. So, you know And and expanding and disproportionately that tends to be feeding in unstable employment Kind of opt out of the marriage market, you know, they feel like they're not qualified That they're not making enough money. They don't have stable employment And until I can have a full-time job and be financially responsible I don't feel like I should get married, right? And this is another big reason behind, you know, the delayed marriage Which exacerbates the fertility problem. So, you know, these are this is like economy meets society That I think that all, you know, these structural changes are all related Yeah, but I sorry, can I I have to say that this is a trap not only for women But also men as well and of christened, you know Part time the gap between the, you know, regular and the non-regular workers really high each band because They try to protect the so-called conservative type of the full-time work So as we completely try to change the the definition or position of Them, you know, uh, full-time work or so-called long-term work, you know, things can be changed So we need quite drastic, you know, uh reform in order to make it change So getting back to the obvious, you know, uh, Prime Minister's obvious order mix So he I thought he's a kind of great, you know, realistic Politicians, so he is really, you know, sensitive what they want and they propose a woman mix But they I'm not sure whether he doesn't touch very core in an input so-called That's why If I could add one more thing about, you know, this the question that I get a lot is like, why don't we have more women's leadership positions in Japan and You know, you you think about this from the most gender discrimination and women are exploited from the workplace And then on the supply side You have women that don't want to go into these leadership positions Right. And so there's both things going on and I I've done We're actually doing this survey of gender and diversity issues and I'm not denying that, you know, there's, you know, discrimination in the workplace, but there's a large Part of this problem is that women generally don't want to go into these positions. Okay. Can I Sorry, sorry, but you know what, you know, I always yes I do understand and a lot of people said that but first of all Have you asked this kind of question to men? You want to be a manager or not? This is kind of nonsense If you continue to, you know develop your own career and take a higher managerial position I think this is a kind of the, you know, uh, working part So do not ask young women, you know, whether you'd like to be a manager Of course, if I were I say no and I'm the one who didn't this expect to do this role But again, everything is so behind so do not make this kind of survey No, it's it's based on interviews and But so what I wanted to say is that The men the men also, you know, have very similar responses But it's not like, you know, the men aspire to be in these positions as well I mean, so what I'm saying is that The work conditions in Japanese companies Are just not very attractive And this is true for both men and women So it's not like the men have it easier off than the women, right? I mean, you ask any Japanese salaryman 40 50, you know, like it's not a desirable position. I guarantee you it's not a very good position And happiness levels are actually lower, right, you know, by of Japanese members as Japanese women. And so Um, one solution to this not just, you know, job Not just going beyond gender Is that you have to make Japanese jobs more attractive You know, that there's something about the way we work going back again Makes people unhappy Uh, makes miserable Uh, it's almost like Gaman is is is a very very good virtue and Ganbaru is a good virtue Um, but but it's not about that, right? So there's a there's a there's a triangle like there's a, you know, ha Happiness and well-being if you have happy people they become productive If productive Then you become, you know, you can work less and if you work less then you can become more happy, right? So right now we're kind of stuck in the other side where we have a lot of army of unhappy people That are unproductive working long hours and it's just it's really bad cycle That's that's something that we have to get out and the father can I And the father more the image when they you know answer the question very male dominated Made if you like increase more female, you know, uh, female riskier and their, you know, orientation maybe So great you can see a really excellent debate is is coming out here and it'll be wonderful to hear audience Opinions too and just to slightly change track our third panelist, um, professor Carol Hayes Is a linguist she's got a lot of um talents actually And one of the things she's been grappling with um in her research Throughout the pandemic has been the the sort of impact that the pandemic has had on the psyche In japan and obviously it's it's awakened the kind of apocalyptic Sense in many people and this even comes through in in anime and other forms of pop culture in japan and so they're the kind of questions that that she was interested in in sort of Grappling within her research is you know, how do we come to terms with not knowing what terrible things Await us in society and not knowing what fate awaits us in the future That was one of the terrible things when the pandemic started. No one knew how long this is going to go for It's gone for a lot longer than any of us expected And how do we talk about apocalyptic horror and what what kind of narratives? Are being used and how do we we tell future generations? And her her response to these these questions was She says I have a deep belief in the power of storytelling To show how communities deal with issues of significance and manuals manage social change That's why she she looks at pop culture to get a sense of this as well and just as my cancer treatment and my battle with glioblastoma brain cancer is teaching me new words and narratives So covered So has covered provided the world with a new lexicon for pandemic and contagion I guess. I mean, this is my comment. Some may call it the kind of medicalization of society. We've seen And a set of terms which are culturally oriented to map how we deal with it So we have new words But we also have new images and the visualization of contagion has always been critical to help people deal with an amorphous and invisible threat Whether the grim reaper the plague doctors of the middle ages godzilla or the image of the covet molecule as an organic satellite It's moist spikes floating through our blood and inculcating our immune systems Popular culture is often revealing in helping us to understand how a culture works And how a community responds to this threat From the nursery rhymes of the past ring a ring a roses To the anime of today's japan even to very popular smartphone game and avatar involving the governor of tokyo to reinforce Social distancing in pandemic tokyo It's been instructive in this context to look at the hugely successful recent blockbuster series demon slayer In this anime the demons and their slayers serve as a metaphor for our human fear of the other And highlight our failure to protect and sustain social and natural environments These gothic demons are very much like the classic oni demons which challenge how a community sees others and its social norms and identities And in demon slayer draw their strength from from blood and its corruption in others The parallels to covet are evident just as other monster narratives In japan from oni to godzilla have provided visual and narrative ways to help people come to terms with amorphous threats carol's currently doing a research project with dr. Emerald king from the university of tasmania on this at the moment so Watch this space there. There'll be more coming out on this soon So really grateful to carol for for sending through her contribution to help us to understand How people are managing on a psychological level dealing with the uncertainty around covid through pop culture. It's quite fascinating So obviously we we can't have questions particularly on on that topic right now But i'd like to invite questions from two two of the best sociologists in japan here with us At a new it's a great opportunity To maybe share your thoughts on on what's come up or or to ask your own questions Just get the mic Hello, my name is serena. I'm a student here doing japanese studies at a and u My question is for professor shira hase. Thank you for your keynote speech I was wondering if you could expand a little bit more on your last slide You talked about one of the solutions being the flexibilization of the workforce My understanding of flexibilization is that sometimes people who opt to have flexible work Might be more vulnerable to being laid off in times of economic crisis So I was just wondering if you could expand a little bit more on what you mean. Thank you Thank you very much. Actually, I didn't have time and then I have to confess that I couldn't you know Sold it out, you know, what should be them? You know, what should be the main, you know point I should you know emphasize But on the micro level, maybe You know nurturing culture is very very important indeed Because you know, it's not that easy changing the norms and changing expectations Which closely attached to every kind of aspect including the way of working and who take care of the sick children So every moment this kind of norms and expectations is attached So how we can break through this kind of, you know Existing very strong obstacles. It's not that easy But thing is otherwise, maybe the turning children, you know, Shira Kawasen said We need a kind of consensus to I think this is a fact almost a fact If we, you know, continue to keep very Old-fashioned type of models that in Japan we can't survive And furthermore, we can no longer waste our good, you know assets of the society Which is a younger generation or even the future generation, you know to utilize their talent So it's ours to change the judgment and the nurture Okay, then making a mistake is also very, you know, important indeed So the turning back to the you know, ono sense is, you know point So the leadership with various type of, you know, background is very important because you can see the leaders Which you can guide or judge your own behavior So the leadership we can be very, you know, a discretionary judgment be done Very instantly that's the more core important thing So in order to make these kind of people more Maybe we do change very drastically our reform Thank you Great, more questions. We've got quite a few. Maybe we can even take two questions Three, okay Yeah, we'll take two. Thank you Thank you. I'm Hayley Channer from the Perth US Asia Center Today we've talked a lot about demographics and the role of women And I'm really interested because I come from a defense and security background I'm interested in the psyche of the Japanese public in terms of world events And without trying to go into the defense session, which is coming later this afternoon What do events like things such as Abishinzo's assassination and things like the war in Ukraine What kind of psychological impact is that have in the world? Wow That's really difficult We'll just take one more, right? We can take is there. Yeah, we'll take two questions. Yep. Sorry Yep She did back up the lady are waiting actually. Yeah, so We'll take this one and then we'll take the other one next. Yep. Go for it No, no. Okay. Yep. We'll take two Hi, I'm Sharona. I'm a speechwriter at DFAT Um, I just wanted to I was really interested. We sort of Talked about the great resignation and then I guess the other side of that when you're talking about the vicious cycle of low productivity And then unhappiness. Um, and that's something that for example, you know in china the tongue ping or lying flat Has been the sort of a movement that's picked up among youths At least a little bit. Um, and so I'm interested in whether you foresee any sort of similar social movement amongst young people in a, you know, sort of environment where productivity is low and you know potentially job satisfaction isn't high and people sort of feel like there isn't any movement to move Okay, and want to take okay. We can possibly take one more. Yeah, we'll take we'll collect questions and our panelists can address both I'll come to that one too. Oh, okay. Hi. I'm Lucia Second year at ANU studying international relations and majoring in all things japan my question is Women need to participate in the labor workforce and to do that there needs to be a higher level of education achieved But there's still that stigma that highly educated japanese women find it harder to find partners to marry I'm sure we've heard the stories of Todai female students grandparents crying because they got into todai. They're so worried about they're not getting married So how does that stigma effect Is that a factor in lower birth rates and fertility? And if so, like is there a solution to the stigma? Okay, great questions excellent questions So what I might do first is ask professor on or did you want to pick up on any of those questions? Sure, I I can ask I can answer the second person's question. Um, was it was relating specifically to the case of china? So like I can I can Um, yeah, one of the work that I do is actually work on happiness and international comparisons It's a very very top is dominated by Scandinavian countries, right? Sweden, norway, Denmark, finland Australia is pretty high as well because they have a very good social welfare state And towards the bottom you start seeing the post communist countries, so Hungry China as well, you know And so what we can learn from the top countries is that they also have extremely The shortest working hours in the world, right? So there's something about the way They have they have certain needs So I I observe the way the swedish people work They you know work short hours, but they're very productive while they're there They have a very very clear separation between work and family If anything say like I'd like to spend this much time with my family and for myself What do how much do I need to work? For leisure, right? And that's not going to be a path to happiness So I think in that sense many of the europeans have their priorities straight and this you know the So I think the countries that really have that you know that priority Straightened out achieve, you know high happiness and high productivity At the same time unfortunately what what happened with the post communist society is that they had a social safety net And so, you know suddenly that was taken away from them, right? And so that Being exposed to these market mechanisms is a big reason behind their unhappiness Not really sure if that answers your question But at least you know among the second Scandinavian countries great answer. Thank you. And now, okay Thank you for the very tough questions And you know, I'm not sure whether I'm ready to answer, you know setting right here And okay, um, you know the instance for abbe is really sorry about it So and everyone needs to start, you know, surprised actually what happened because japan was famous Has been famous that in a very safe country And but at the same time, I don't think we have We haven't clear enough To interpret well, I hopefully, you know, I can continue to discuss and Ukraine issues And this is you know more and more of the people that get the kind of attention, but I hope we can, you know, uh You know peace issues is quite global And we got an adamic bombing and we have the hero shima and an anasaki instance as well Quite a few young people involved in social movement actually nowadays through the snm So we have a very good, you know a kind of, you know motivation to speak up Or to feel what's going to happen But the thing is thing is we do not have enough infra To welcome a lot of people with various backgrounds say the mother tongue is in the japanese You know, this kind of infra hasn't been ready yet But again, not only the Ukraine, but also unfortunately a lot of, you know, international conflicts that are happening All over the world and so maybe in japan, we have the very unique and Experiences and the world world too So we can play a little bit more You know active role To relieve the discussion at least and make a collaboration Can be done So the maybe the one of the key issues is how to make the international collaboration More, you know, actually done is really the urgent issue. I think not only research area But also this kind of social problem area and the stigma towards an expectation is a tough question And japan can be characterized by in a very strong punishment Society if you do not follow a kind of, you know And expected path But again, you know, even those and you know, the things are changing So how we can support various voices Make it possible or easier To, you know, to raise a voices. That's really urgent issues. Maybe the audience generation Older generation unfortunately including myself You know, or including my, you know, male friends actually I You know understands how important it is So again, unfortunately, this is a very If you are in a remote area, you know, in particular, you do not have any supporters around That's going to be a big issue. Then now is an end every kinds of kids can reach out Not only in japan but also outside and make make make a team actually Make in the help of and make a friend actually that might be a great, great idea. I like to support this kind of situation Great. Thank you. And we have time for one more question which has come through online Thank you for sending through the question. So the question is About single mothers, which are sort of one of the most sort of in the most precarious demographic in in japan And often they're they're working full time and The society is very much geared towards, you know, economically supporting, you know Double parent house or two parent households So what kind of resources or policy measures could be taken to to improve their situation? And I'd like to ask both of our panelists. Would you like to sir professor? Sure. I can start Yeah, sure So, um, yes the question is about, uh, like policy measures that can be used to improve the status of single mothers. Um So, uh, you know, shirahasa sensei talked a lot about very strong gender norms and and family norms as well And this is another area where You know single mothers tend to be stigmatized, right and but That's But I guess this is a question about um policy. So what I can say is that, um We can there there are Uh particular measures and policy measures in place to protect the status of single mothers I think the problem The problem is that they erect certain barriers to to using this system, right? So not just single mothers, but like for example Um getting help at home Um For your parents You know, uh, you need to you need to prove a lot of things that is there, uh, uh Like a sibling or a child living nearby, you know Um, does this person really require help and there's a there's very many many layers of bureaucracy and of course paperwork because Everybody loves paperwork. So in the case of single mothers, you know, uh, the same thing happens that Uh, is there is it possible that your parents could help out? Extended family do they live nearby and to you know to establish these Roadblocks in itself is very very cumbersome and perhaps a little bit embarrassing for some people, right? Like why do I have to go through all these layers of paperwork in order to get this kind of subsidy? and so Basically what I learned from living in sweden Um is that you know, they really lower these barriers, right? They make it accessible It's universal And you ask for this kind of help and you get it So I think that's the kind of policy that we need is that, you know, minimize the paperwork And just lower the barriers to to take advantage of it Okay, uh, this is a quite, you know big issue and luckily this issue getting more, you know, attention from not only Media but also the politics actually for and the one the covet 19 has expanded actually has occurred and then the bureau of, you know, gender equity Organized Kind of in the working group and we you know raised some kind of urgent proposal includes Includes including, you know, uh, special, you know, assistant to The families with the low income particularly for low mom families But think is severe in again the question is yes, the policies support the single mom are increasing And but think is the very detailed system pretty much based on the existing system for instance Okay, the allowance, you know allowance for the child care during the covet 19 This allowance pays to the head of the families The head of the household tend to be the woman a man and a man and they got divorced And only the man has the right to get, you know, this kind of allowance This is a very tiny winning example But the system itself is assumptions is really still, you know, stick with a very very unconventional way So and the father more there are quite a lot of, you know, policies in there But thing is the people are overwhelmed such kind of information and dx and some kind of, you know, it Education's also and provided through the community But when they or how they can get this kind of information, you know for the very, you know And having the three, you know times Three working job pattern working job at the same time and how this kind of can be reached out to the very needy people We do not have this kind of, you know system in japan So, you know, how we can facilitate this, you know Increasing the number of policies and implementation A real implementation of these new policies and a kind of, you know, make it, you know Use a more easy way, maybe the urgent issue And the other thing is an opportunity of an equal opportunity for the kids raise and single mom families They have a very tough situation for the kids, you know kids can, you know, choose and their parents So from their side how we can guarantee Equal opportunities to get the higher education or good education is also very important issues Excellent. Thank you. And I wonder if Something that that might help, you know, sort of Mitigate against this idea of the man as head of the household is this sort of policy push towards allowing Women to retain their own surname that made a name when they get married And also when they get divorced because often this obviously head of household idea has revolved around the surname of the house So if that's that's that's kind of things. Yes very much closely attached. Yeah That's why the individual numbers, maybe uh, the numbers can be a key number to, you know, uh To connect to each other don't like, you know, that's kind of things Okay, great. Um, I think you'll agree with me that this has been a really Stimulating discussion. We've covered a lot of aspects of Japanese society, but in a very in-depth way Thanks to our brilliant panellists. I'd like to thank professor Hayes, professor Shirahase And professor on all for their wonderful contributions to the panel and for your question. So please join me in thanking them I believe now we're going to adjourn for afternoon tea. So please enjoy Thank you Well, welcome everyone to this our final session of today's wonderful japan update Where we'll be focusing on japan strategic choices Let me begin by acknowledging and celebrating that we're meeting this afternoon on the traditional lands of the nana war people And pay my respects to elders past and present My name's amy king And i'm an associate professor here in the strategic and defense study center coral bell school of age of pacific affairs at the anu I'm very delighted to to join everyone here today for this japan update The past 12 months have seen significant developments in japanese foreign and security policy both in response to domestic political changes Taking place within japan, but also equally in response to the global and regional challenges that japan is facing Russia's war in ukraine has raised pressing concerns for all countries But particularly on issues that have long been central to japan's sense of security and identity Issues like food and energy security And the but we've also seen the combination of regional order building activities that japan has had a central hand in helping to Shape things such as the regional comprehensive economic partnership As well as an increase in many lateral partnerships such as the quad At home japan is in the midst of revising the major documents that guide its foreign policy agenda Including the national defense program guidelines the medium term defense program and the national security strategy Those in economic security and human rights which reflect its foreign policy agenda And of course the assassination of former prime minister shinzo abe has left its mark not only on domestic policy within japan But of course on japan's foreign policy and national security choices To help us think through these and many other issues I'm delighted to have an all-star panel joining us both physically here in camber As well as via the wonders of of zoom I won't be providing extended biographies of all of our panelists their achievements are many And their biographies can be found in the program But please let me welcome yoko iwama professor of international at the university of tokyo And behind me on zoom Soya yoshi hide professor emeritus at keio university And evelyn go professor of shedden professor of strategic studies here at the australian national university Welcome to all of our panelists I've asked each of our panelists to provide about five minutes or so of remarks on issues that are of central to their own research agendas or concerns In in recent months and years We'll then turn to a wider discussion and questions including questions from you the audience. So please Get your questions ready and I will open up q&a Towards about the the midway point of the panel I'm going to start here in the in is facing japan its order building role and some of the recent developments in in in the region Thank you. Amy and thank you for Coming to this Lecture hall and also. Thank you for participating from zoom This is my first trip after the pandemic So i'm very excited to come back to australia And I spent my postdoctoral herosep here in a new so And so this is very very fortunate australia is my first destination after the pandemic. So i'm very grateful to come back here so I have contributed to this east asia forum quarterly So on the page 12, uh, you can find My essay so I think you know, I can give you five minutes to read my essay. So I don't need to speak up he is Actually, uh here, uh editor. I put to me. I put this essay great subtitle liberalism and a threat I think this is very good summary, uh for my essay and for kind of vision, uh, japanese government or japanese half now I mean We do want to see liberalism standing You know and surviving in this turbulent world, but you know, it is now under a big threat And what is a of perception and what is a lot of japan? This is what I want to Say in coming five minutes so, um us china library Uh has been biggest challenge for japan Japanese security policy and also japanese economy As you know, like australia, we really dependent has depended on chinese market And the growth of china is really important for japanese company and for japanese economies Beyond even beyond economics, you know, uh, we have many chinese people deciding in japan So to keep the years between japan china since 1972 we have, uh, kept the very important Uh diplomacy with china, uh, but which I can summarize as stability seeking diplomacy Even though we have admitted China has many problems, but china can be different tomorrow and In addition, it is very important to have stable relationship with china For japan's own interests, but also for regional interests even before trump administration It was it has become so serious from 2015 But it was japanese government and japan japan itself Who try to pass away united states to be more tough tougher on china After our island disputes, I mean, uh according to japanese government. This is not dispute, but anyway, but uh We have some issue, uh over senkaku island Between china and japan, so we start to we are really tough on china like since 2010, but When united states became so serious and also deepness of u.s. Approach to china because that might Be really tough for japan to take that is, you know economic impact like decoupling is too tough for japan to take And also to destabilize The relationship with china You know, I think uh our whole policy start to adjust ourselves to the new situation We have to admit You know china The diplomacy with china is tough We have to adjust to some extent our economies and the reality of our technology Or export of our technology to china To the new reality So I think it was a kind of learning process five years uh, so US china relations is really tough and you know, I think many many friends and colleagues In australia has the same concerns and the same dilemma You know to face with china challenge But what we have learned In tokyo in japan is we have to adjust ourselves to the new reality Because this rivalry between u.s. And china Cannot be stoppable Of course, we have to seek the better way to manage this competition But first first of all we have to adjust ourselves our mindset to the new reality new digital reality And you know, and we have to admit China The future of china or china tomorrow might not be what we have imagined 40 years ago. So This is the first thing I wanted to say now, but I have spent five minutes already This is very very tough But the second thing uh, that this is uh, the final thing I want to emphasize is we really have to You know, japan United state is not so helpful right You know, I think uh I think I believe all of you know very well about ipath in the pacific economic framework Which is meaningless framework ever, right? But that is the reality what united states and biden administration can do now, right? They have big obstacle in domestic politics. They cannot come back to tpp. They can do in the regional Regionalism or regional order building process has some limitation natural limitation But look at what happened the last few years like orcas quat Orcas quat fine fine. That is fine or Or TTC TTC is a framework between united states and eu To talk about like export control or economic security issue. That is fine But all mechanisms are us alliance based mechanism But you know that us based alliance mechanism has natural tendency To be I mean to have kind of exclusiveness itself, right? So what we really need I mean, what we I mean is australia and japan really need to do is how can we Get back real inclusive mechanism right, so cpt pp Is of course a very good step And also, uh, we we can We can promote quality infrastructure is very important but That is That is very important, you know to admit united state is just a one player one of them one player In buildings and new regional institutions We have to admit that if not we cannot Make our profits in this region in this rising region so Maybe what japan first first to do is azian And and also korea And even with china we really need to make a more robust cooperation or was talk over economy or rulemaking things But also with australia. We have to cooperate more over pacific islands Or with new gland or with india and with other countries And even with global south so I think uh, you know This is what I wanted to say. That's my second item and I stop here. So thank you very much. Thank you There is a lot that's quite remarkable in what you've said just now before I remark on that though I think it provides a very nice segue into Evelyn goes What I expect will be evlyn's comments given the nature of her interest in japan and its order building role So evelyn, I might turn to you now If you could perhaps give us a few of your thoughts It's a pleasure to be on this panel with Sashi-san Iwama sensei and so I said thank you very much for the time It's it's it's hard isn't it to to know what to focus on in five minutes worth of remarks So let me let me plunge in but perhaps to as as as a segue to echo Amy in appreciating the very stark picture that Sashi-san's for you know painted for us um of that japanese vision of A regional order which is fundamentally inclusive Which fundamentally yes does Does center itself in about the other? players structures institution and um normative frameworks that that that need to underpin any regional order and certainly should be at the forefront of our minds As we think about the transition into a new order today um So I hope that the three points i've got to make very quickly in the five minutes that god may help us to think to some of that I thought that perhaps what I can best contribute to this panel is three points which Which come at a edit from japan come at japan's security choices from from a broader strategic Point of view. So my first point um is a reminder really about japan as such a pivotal player in the contemporary east asian order Right. Um, what do I mean by japan's a pivotal player? Um, I i'm really alluding to the centrality of the japan-china relationship As well as the centrality of the japan-us alliance For the nature of the regional order that we find ourselves in Of course, it's common to think about distribution of power, but i'm not alluding to distribution of power I actually mean the nature of the regional order that that that we've got and that is necessary that if japan chooses A different alignment between china and the united states than what it's had today, right? um That choice will cause the regional order to tip into a different place, right? So that's a very quick idea of That reminder of japan as the pivotal player In the contemporary order now being a pivotal player means that when we think about japan's security choices We all we we need to think about them not only in the context of japan's politics Or japan's strategy, but we think about the system effects of japan's security choices The key choices that japan makes out japan's most important role In the regional order to date, right? And that role is as the us hegemonic supporter, right? By its subordination to the us in the post-cold war continued subordination to the united states in the post-cold war period By its reiterated choices to be constrained Both by its constitution and by the alliance with the united states japan has essentially propped up US hegemony in east asia for nearly 80 years Just consider what the regional order would be the nine To have formed a closer relationship something much more kin You know to a more balanced sort of alignment With each other, right? We would be facing today a radically different kind of regional order um That we can think about system effects of japan's security choices in also more narrow issue area Issue areas so we think about taiwan contingencies for example Which is something very much of course on many minds today You know at any sort of gaming of a taiwan contingency very often begins With a cozy assumption that japan will necessarily support US offensive operations in the taiwan states Without japan's role in that support Other allies the effects of japan's security choices Uh can be thought about there. I'll say a bit about the economic thing in my third dimension in my third point Let me move quickly to my second point again second point on the table also a reminder That as we face the uncertainties Today and going moving ahead. There are two black elephants Which you know, I'm constantly reminding people that we need to keep in our minds when considering japan's strategic choices What now black elephants as those of you who are familiar with Horizon scanning or say first is the external black elephant and that's us reliability This variable is increasingly salient due to systemic instabilities within the us political system Right. These are systemic Instabilities in the u.s. Domestic political system is not just a case of one capricious president Right And a reminder, of course They're all better off for japan and for the region if the us cannot be countered upon To maintain order from the apex of that regional hegemonic order that we've taken for granted terms of the multiple ways In which japan needs to work In order to Prop up a more inclusive regional order today The internal black elephant the second one is the prospects of Significant domestic level changes in in japan that would significantly shift the parameters of japan as a strategic actor One of these obvious ones is the prospects of constitutional amendment, which is an issue which has been Debate Assassination now many domestic constraints remain of course despite the super majority of the ldp and the coalition partners But the borderline here is we don't tend to pay enough attention to how the japanese policy changes We prefer still to black box Japanese domestic politics so that we can take for granted Certain comfortable assumptions we want to make about japan and japan's security choices That the us and its allies can count upon When thinking about strategic scenarios in this region and my my reminder here Is that the time for that kind of comfortable assumption is passed For both these black elephant reasons now very quickly to my third point because i'm out of time now My third point for for the discussion is about the enhanced economic security nexus Right that really comes to the fore when we when we look at japan's security choices over the last 12 to 18 months Once again, of course, japan is the vanguard Right of that very conscious practice of thinking about security in a comprehensive way That doesn't necessarily split military security from economic security. The two things are thought about together traditionally within The japanese imagination and quite rightly the present company on this panel has always emphasized those tight interconnections to and you've just heard So she has not over the past 12 to 18 months. It really shows japan continuing to lead Right in bringing the economic elements of security to the forefront where other regional states should really follow Right, um, but there is a new element too over the last year or so these practices at the nexus of economic insecurity Are currently finding significantly more resonant both with the region and importantly with the united states than before So the strategic environment is causing other access in the region to catch up with japan In thinking about the tight interconnections between economics and security And we can highlight some of these issues some of these examples in You know in thinking about the launching for example, you know the relaunching of An economic security agenda really at the forefront of a number Of japan's foreign antings that we saw in july and really spreading across Cooperation on critical technology supply chain resilience export controls other areas which are so central Now to the economic competition with china but also in responses to systemic challenges like the pandemic um And into that basket that just at two other things, you know, uh, the new japanese economic security promotion act and The appointment of a new economic security minister as well again very traditional sort of ways within the japan's political system to signal the elevation Of certain policy agendas. Okay on that On that note, i'm just going to stop so that um, we can take this discussion forward a bit more. Thank you very much Thank you so much evan. Um, and again, I think some really important points that connect us with with both what satashita was saying But also I think allow us to pivot nisly now to soya sensei again on via our zoom connection Professor soya, of course One of the key leader the the systemic effects of its security choices was of course Former prime minister abe shinzo you've written and thought a lot about his legacy For japan's foreign and security policy choices For this current government and I wonder if you perhaps might like to speak about that and and what the current kishida government Is grappling with um in the wake of of prime minister abe's death Yep. Thank you. Thank you. Amy. Uh, can you help me? All right? okay Well, I'd like to thank the i mean new japan update project team for inviting me Unfortunately, I couldn't make it to cambra But thanks to technology I'm speaking from my humble residence in i chi japan and It's still very warm outside well, uh as Amy Suggested my my topics will be mostly on where And how the current kishida government stands Against the backdrops of of course the legacy of former prime minister abe and domestically, I think the biggest legacy Require mr abe is a division or divided politics and society in japan and in this division The so-called the atmosphere of conservative You know politics and arguments Seems to be a little dominant And having said that prime minister kishida himself You know has proclaimed from time to time that as the leader of the dovish faction of ldp kochikai You know, uh, his disposition in foreign policy Is essentially liberal So here there is some tension So kishida, I mean between his personal disposition And the domestic political environment in which he has to You know navigate and in fact The path he has to navigate is very narrow And I think that's how some some of the You know issues coming from the current government may look somewhat complex to say the least And the contradictory from time to time And uh one concrete example would be This you know somewhat Central issue which is now being debated in japan that is The the increase of the defense budget to two percent of gmp And in the process of You know formulating the So basic policy on economic and fiscal management 2022 Which was adopted by the cabinet in june this year Prime minister He was alive still at the time gave pressure to kishida to Sort of include this commitment to two percent of gmp in the document And but kishida resists that the government will Fundamentally reinforce japan's defense capabilities within five years And this time frame of five years is a compromise of assault by kishida For his rejection rejection of two percent and the so-called new men numerical target and So one thing is that kishida's sort of heart is not really in this sort of traditional build-up of defense If I may but of course He knows the circumstances and he knows that he has to do something I mean in terms of building up japan's defense so Some some are somewhat not not very clear picture here, but I think that How jishida is engaging himself In a sort of very difficult process of Dealing with security and defense needs and of course the very strict budget constraints And having said that You know foreign policy or for that matter a national strategy is bound to be a comprehensive one I mean talking about one dimension of this of this and saying that this is japan's strategy Is not entirely correct And in this comprehensive strategy, of course, you know, military deterrence Mostly against china is very important And us japan alliance, I think there is no other sort of foundation upon which to you know rely For japan to have sort of comprehensive military strategy under the current circumstances not to mention a possible taiwan contingency and So so you know japan's self efforts In the domain of you know defense and security Also needs to be justified and rationalized under the overall context of the alliance with the united states and somewhat Less, you know con con conventional sort of forms of security cooperation with Other so-called like-minded countries in the indopacific as well as in europe And I think this is of course an important area, but Having said that, I think ishila is more inclined to emphasize prioritized Multilateral diplomatic efforts in both. I mean both globally and regionally And globally of course his position is to work with the g g7 in the aftermath of the russian invasion of ukraine and And under this sort of g7 framework and working with also nato countries One critical development which happened this year was the participation of the so-called asia pacific four I mean japan, australia and and the new zealand and south korea and asia pacific four attended the you know session uh partner session of the nato summit and One very important development to me was the fact that kishida Volunteer to host a meeting among these four leaders prior to Moving to the partner session of nato and so so this this this sort of formula. I mean i'm I have the temptation to say this is a middle power corporation But anyway, uh, you know this this ap4 sort of framework is a very important new development And this could be an indirect way of working with You know south korea on the part of japan, you know under the new sort of multilateral imperatives and And the regionally of course in the pacific diplomacy is a very important concept And but here, I mean in the pacific diplomacy is is now has now turned into a multilateral You know gathering or attempt Not necessarily to exclude china or to let alone contain china But to create sort of regional infrastructure on the basis of our own initiatives Our i mean regional countries who are in a way sandwiched between us and china I mean this has been terribly lacking in the past history of originalism in our region I mean regional countries Talking together joining efforts together working together to create a regional infrastructure of a sort You know out of our own initiatives And so you know this kind of formula without us and china would be very important I think I think that's that's that's ap ap4 in a way And if china is in it's going to be a game of a certain kind if us is in of course, it's going to be a different game So so to to to conceptualize some sort of regional endeavors And and efforts By our own kind of you know regional countries I think is what has been terribly lacking and This if we conceptualize this properly and if government jumps at it I am afraid there isn't much hope But anyway, you know for this kind of discussion I mean talking about the possibility potentials of those frameworks I think it would be would be very important And japan is a member of so many regional institutions and the frameworks of cooperation Maybe almost all So japan is in a position to you know, sort of think of harmonizing You know these different different types of you know, multilateral regimes in the region Just just without attending each one on the basis of each merits But to begin to think of you know, sort of harmonizing all of these into certain, you know direction Of sort of region formation This is just a hypothetical and a very pure mature thinking But I mean the debates I think are equally important To to the debate about you know, national security national defense Where japanese attention is almost single-handedly sort of You know given and So our arguments about national strategy should be more balanced in my view. So so I'll I'll stop here Yeah, thank you. So as I said before I do that. However, I'd like to very much now draw back to our Speakers here in camber and protect particularly to professor Current choices that japan is currently confronting because it does go to the heart of some of these questions around the alliance and Thank you Amy and thank you organizers for bringing me here It's really nice to be back in camber and as as a high school girl finishing the HSC in New South Wales I was sitting in this car. I had just got my driver's license And I heard on the radio the depth of the prime minister hit up. So now you know how old So um this well, we've talked a lot about um comprehensive security But I think I'll focus in the next five minutes on the heart security Is uh, this is kind of a sequel to the piece I wrote In global asia from east asia foundation and nuclear weapons nuclear deterrence and nuclear power Really two sides of a same coin And I've written about nuclear power on this piece and the piece on to the start of the krain war 24th of february this year and The really surprising thing about the reaction in japan was a very emotional and quick reaction and very thorough identification with the west Which was quite different from what happened in 2014 after the kremian crisis At the time we had prime minister abed was a peace treaty with russia ending the second world war And maybe a new constitution or constitutional change after that So that was a real change of tone from um abe legacy Arrangeated himself from abe legacy. He was very popular and whenever he was kind of Getting back into the shadow. He got less popular So it's a really um interesting thing to think about japanese opinion being affected by the krain and war I mean it was going on for several years and we were kind of half expecting the national security strategy debate to begin The the mood in japan has really changed Just by seeing all the bombings that's happening in in key f and all the other places and how It can really and that's also something new that we are really sort of committed to the to what's going on in in europe which felt like You know, the other thing is that people were worried They had fear that maybe this is What's going to happen here in japan in asia Next, we don't know when but next so that started um a new kind of a round of debate about Defense and deterrence and so here came in the late shins of abe Bearing for the last 10 years. This was nato nucleation because my especially was German security So this arrangement came about And so part of the conservative party jumped to the idea The sir ken jimbo and me who went to the lgp Headquarter to explain what this was all about And where our priority haven't quite reached there yet, but I think As sahaj san said we are going to increase our defense budget in the new future And the other thing is that the longest range Capabilities the longer range strike capabilities It has several names like enemy Some of you may and may not be familiar with these jargons China has about 1000 middle and longer range missiles that can rain on japanese islands That's a fact we of the so-called INF treaty that was valid until very recently and they very Beautifully kept to that treaty. This was a treaty between survey union and america. China had no place in it So china was not bound by this treaty and so in the last 20 years They have diligently built up these strike capabilities Most of them are said to be dual capable Meaning they can carry conventional as well as nuclear warheads. We don't really know when they are going to put nuclear warheads on these So the question has been Recently, what do we do about it? And what do the americans do about it? The answer is not fully out yet Especially about, you know, how much nuclear proportion do we want to balance these chinese capabilities? And we don't know what russian capabilities would What role this would play in the debate but for us it's really about The chinese capabilities debate can go to different directions It's not about us trying to invade china or anything like that when we develop the capabilities that can reach 500 and 1000 meters There are talks about japan eventually acquiring up to Middle-range capabilities missiles That will be land-based probably because that's easiest to develop Which Would have the range of something between 500 and 1000. We don't know how many of which Ones we will get We don't have them yet into this area There has also been talks about bringing in american land-based ones But I don't really believe that will happen if they're going to believe in bringing middle-range Tri-capabilities, it will probably be sea-based as far as I know So this has been about how do we Rebalance and reconstitute we never really talked about what it concretely was. We just believed in it So now We are really seeing the real possibility of wars We want to deter the war, all right We don't want to want it to be become real wars. What we want is deterrence And for that to happen, we need to look what happens if you're not capable of defending yourself Right and they had to get all the strike abilities from most of them from america And we don't want to be in that situation and that is really the center of the national security strategy this year So how that is going to play out in detail still needs to be Discussed and I'm sure the to Get everything in time before the end of the year, which is supposed to be the deadline I don't know how much we will see by the end of december But I think there is a consensus Emerging slowly. I mean if you read the government report it puts both sides, you know pros and cons But I think there's a slow Consensus emerging that we do need longer strike capabilities and but that's really a step one and just having the Missiles and there will be probably cruise missiles have the command capabilities and so on so that brings in How do we coordinate with the us and other? Partners and allies so I will Stop here shortly But what I've been saying is that all this debate about nuclear sharing It shows that we haven't really talked about these things between the allies. So we need better communication We need better strategic planning. We need to show understand what do we have in each other's pocket and Put them on the table. So that needs to happen between us and japan It also probably needs to happen. But that I really welcome was the late NATO madrid summit where a asia-pacific fall together with NATO partners were sitting there I hope this will be institutionalized and regular. It makes it easier for us to Talk to the south koreans and south koreans to us We have communication problems. We know that and we have to learn to better communicate with each other This is only part of the solution We are kind of shrinking proportion of the world. And so we need to better Extend into the other parts of the world including larger parts of asia and africa And but I will leave that to later debate. Thank you so much Really important remarks there on the on the hard security side of things as you say and also what that means for Not only the alliance, but these potentially new mechanisms Sort of the alliance plus if you if you like To our audience members you get those ready Before we do though and to give you a moment to to to you know to get those questions ready I'd like to just turn briefly back to sahajisum Because I think a lot of what you set out at the beginning has been picked up in different ways by our different panelists And I just be interested in some immediate reflections You know you made that remarkable point at the beginning that that the japan has recognized that the us is not so helpful In the regional order building mechanisms and that they are increasingly exclusive japan security choices For the region not only for japan, but for the wider region And and that japan is a member of just about every regional Order building framework that there is Professor iwama has spoken about the way in which japan is perhaps Doubling down is too strong a word on the on the alliance side of things But certainly working to enhance the alliance Remain a bit of a vain hope for you Do you do you see of japan as having capacity to actually you know Put some life into the the inclusive order building arrangements and work with new partners for example in in doing that Yeah, I think Japan government has to have to work more And they have to reduce their sleeping time But I think They still I mean we can we can expect Japan's diplomacy I think it's a great work for more inclusive vision Because you know like like look at tpp You know japan was a secretariat role player secretariat role to make it transform it into cp tpp And to survive them after trump withdraw from tpp and arsep Arsep is a framework with asian and other eight countries Sorry six countries to have Legion-wide mechanism even though that is more low profile than tpp But you know japan also played a really important role in arsep And you know like other in even in other like a digital trade area like japan promoted the idea of dhft digital digital free flow of Free flow of data with trust You know, this is also very important concept. Japan's government started to promote From about five years ago So I think uh, uh, japan still have a real big potential possibility To promote the materialism and also Uh, I really agree with the point yamasan days about the traditional security But uh, japan also could play more role for even economic security Right. I mean japanese government will uh, Rebaste the odhata. I mean did the budget for uh, japan's oda So I think that that could be also another very important Yeah, it is not full full set of inclusive inclusive mechanism because they may Want to hedge against the china uh in supply chain management, but still, you know, uh, that could Include more asian nations and other, you know, important players into the framework of economic security. So I think, you know, uh Japan's government, uh, and japan diplomacy still has the potential Possibility or capability To stretch out for inclusive mechanism. Maybe better than united states. Yeah, thank you. Thank you Well to our audience, um, it's now your turn. So I'd like to hear from you. Yes at the back for us at our I believe a microphone is coming Uh bill, can you hear me? Yeah, uh bill tau America's professor at the department of international relations. I wanted to come relating presentations across the board Two quick inquiries One to evaline Meticulous and elegant analysis is always evaline But I'm wondering if perhaps Um, one might look at the us situation particularly the domestic situation relative to the systemic Factors, which you were The americans and this has historically been the case and the one area of bipartisanship In the united states right now is China, uh, there really is very little difference between the democrats and the republicans over china And this has been reflected in officially u.s. Doctrinal Statements where I think your analysis is particularly poignant is whether that can spill over Into a more coherent last speaker on extended deterrence couldn't agree with you more that there hasn't been enough systemic thinking about it but um, I'm wondering if In your work You might take into account some of the technology Developments that could change the face of extended deterrence calculations in the first place And on an unclassified basis you can look at the work of brad roberts and others Who are essentially? arguing that Not just the the notion of warfare. How does that factor into? Japanese decision-making in terms of Which technologies are going to invest in most? Over the next 10 or 20 years. Thank you. Thank you bill evaline. I'm not sure if you heard that question. Did you? Yes, you did. Okay, we might come to that that I think is a is a reasonable way to look at it I wouldn't disagree with you. I suppose the salient point for me is that from Many different points of view in the region and then I believe this includes all except a small fraction of opinion in tokyo that precisely that Domestic consensus within the u.s about china being the new paramount threat Is not helpful to regional stability Or the urgent task of negotiating a new sort of order in the region Which after all Is unlike the united states compelled to continue living with china So it is precisely that domestic consensus about a china threat that is holding distance strategic distance Thank you evaline. Um iwama sensei Yes, we're just a comment to that. Um, I mean soya sensei and I were very very reluctant to admit the china threat From seen from us. It was like china drifted away From a very good relationship that we had in the 80s and 90s I mean I spent a summer in 1982 in shanghai and those in those days. It was a high day of Japan China friendship and It was really nice staying there and nowadays You really think twice and thrice before going to china at all. Um, but back to Builds a question and thank you. I was uh at Hadley bull Institute 2011 and thank you for any for earlier hostability hospitality extended deterrence. Yes Ukraine war It's almost gone back to the first world war, right? Well, it's happening at the same time on the ground. You see first world war in the trenches and up in the air you see all these um satellite images and s and s and information But how much in which needs to be still We have to debate about it There were impressions Before I think the crime more that now we're moving to this digital age. We don't really need these hard the bombing Sure creators and so on but I think Ukraine has shown that war Is very basic form still exists and that we need to take care of that the other thing about deterrence is that it is These were always about balance and numbers That were in your perception You couldn't really feel these things. You never fought, you know, you never threw the bombs against each other This is really very much about perceptions and numbers and Balance on the paper and it still remains very much so So we need to take that into account How much But we also need to learn to think but then how to balance in the end Needs to be decided in our heart That is, you know deterrence is about how do you feel about this rate? That's the most difficult thing about it You can't you know sport you can fight out Wars you cannot fight out. It's on the paper and it's your head. So How the narrative develops Would very much decide on the room, but I believe you have some questions perhaps from the live feed even We've got a mic coming down Yes, so we have some questions from Online questions first one. How do you see Pelosi's visit to taiwan and its effects on japan's position Following japan's multi-billion dollar aid package to africa There's been discourse throughout the west that this represents an effort to counter china's influence. Is this too simplistic? And a third question. How does energy security fit into japan's current economic security agenda? Thanks, right a good a good mix of questions there. So what I might do is um, perhaps How do you say on this taiwan taiwan you'd like to speak to that and perhaps then I might come to I'm a sensei. Would you perhaps counter on the energy security? Question or maybe you'd like to there was one also about the aid package to africa Would you like to try that one? Okay, and so yes and say I might come to you then on the energy security question perhaps Uh speaker percy Visit to taiwan was uh broadcasted I I appeared on many tv and the newspaper To say clearly opposed against that visit so and Some of interview Actually without any paywall Had a very interesting Subtitle and hit hit line. And so I was attacked by many, you know, net people netizen You know because I'm too soft on you know china and you know, I must visit to taiwan is that is unnecessary right because I mean like uh As some some some of colleagues in this panel already mentioned We have worked with united states and other countries to hitch against taiwan contingency You know last a few years. We have developed a lot But we still need more time need more resource right? We are we are developing the situation In towards a better, you know direction. So everything is still in the process But why now we need that factor that surprising factor nancy plus visit and destabilize the region and also a china got the excuse To increase the level of training along the taiwan straight and now medium line between In the taiwan straight is almost ineffective. So I think that that visit, you know, we expected even before the visit It could Give the excuse for china side to do everything And that that doesn't but of course, you know, it happened already So what we have to do now is to do what we have originally planned You know with united states with australia and with any other, you know countries To prevent and deter and also, you know prepare for Prepare for the worst-case scenario over taiwan straight classes. So we never changed But uh, in from that perspective it was unnecessary. Thank you Uh, it was and say on the question on countering china in africa. Is that over simplistic as a narrative? I think so. Um I've been answering such questions for for a decade. I think already. Um, it's been in the air Okay There's a rivalry of a sort but As I said, uh for her to create we don't necessarily need to match every bomb for bomb And we don't really necessarily match every dollar for a dollar or one for in whatever Um, I think uh, our strategy now is to do it, uh, put more emphasis in inequality So emphasizing rule of law and capacity building and not necessarily building rows and highways We we we also need to do that as well, but uh more, um, I'm emphasizing, um, local efforts and Uh Growing their their own capacity rather than you'll be giving them money and made ready made things so I think, um, and then it's not really about um Competition with china I think it's really more about the quality of life there in africa And how to make it better because this will definitely be the fastest growing region in the world in the very new future And it is for our own interests that they have a a better quality of life. Yeah, thank you Um, professor sire. I'm not sure if you can see me currently We can't see you the wonders of technology via the laptop, but um, I'm turning around and hope with the hope that you might see me Um, shira, I might ask if you could just repeat that question about the energy security If you've got it in front of you Is Is energy security part of economic security? I think was the essence of the question So to me, right? I was expecting this question to me, but anyway, uh Yeah, energy security is becoming important element in economic security. I'm sure. Yeah, no question about it And but the traditionally, I mean, there are 2.5 components of you know, the energy strategy It's just a general speaking. That is the diversification of energy resources And the diversification of suppliers And also multinational efforts to control price energy prices. And I think the three Still continue to be very important, but of course under the current, you know, you know, Ukraine sort of Situation and And there is no easy way out and uh Maybe a sort of temptation Is to go back to nuclear power And uh, and the kishida Prime minister kishi expressed, you know, some some some of his thinking about this and how don't I don't know how it's gonna unfold in domestic politics in japan But that's one thing which is not happening and the other international dimension which appears to become important In the years ahead is the the role of the so-called the global south I mean a group of developing countries and In in this, you know international Effort to jointly cope with, you know, russian invasion of ukraine There are many countries as is being discussed often There are many countries who do not take size right between sort of advanced democracies represented by g7 on the one hand and russia on the other and So these countries, which are often these days, you know Called as sort of global south Many of them are resource rich countries And so diplomacy with them under the current post ukraine or ongoing ukraine situations I think is going to have some some some implications not only for this management of, you know, so-called free and open liberal international system But indeed in with the hard realities regarding kind of energy, uh, you know necessities And I don't know if the government our government is beginning to think in those terms, but In joining g7. Oh, sorry G20 and other, you know for Where these developing countries have have have a critical role. I think is going to be Important from this point of view in coming years. Yeah Thank you very much question here Hello, um, my name is akiko tsunami Um, I'm the one who was asked to cut sleep. Yes I am from minister of Governorship, I mean I work for the embassy So I think I was the one who was asked to work more and to go sleep. But anyway, so So that's not meant as a retaliation, but but this is actually a comment and or Comment question to To saras sensei um So, um, there's two things. Uh, one is about narrative one is about like overall Direction of architecture Approach to architecture. So on the narrative side, um I think you mentioned like everything like all the difficulties started with US china rivalry Like it was china rivalry Of course, uh, in other narratives, that's we're very familiar with in I think anyway in the world So in Australia is that well, actually, uh, it's not for example, uh, prime minister Often says it's not austria that's changed It's china that's changed Or somebody some people say it's china that began to reveal its intentions And then that kind of happened. Maybe well, um came became a clearer so about 10 years ago. So, um, So rather than Rather than presenting that actually the difficulties about like to I don't know. Godzilla versus I don't know king kong to to uh, to to enormous creatures fighting It's not it may be, um appropriate to think about it as actually it's It's the change of china or revealing of the china as iwanasen say Say recording actually the time when When you had what it was very positive possible to have kind of cooperative Much much easier to have a cooperative approach with china. There was a time when the us Robert zellig was saying talking about responsible stakeholder Uh, those days were like 20 years ago something like that, but then What changed is it rivalry between to the china u.s rivalry or is it Something changed with china something's revealed. So that's my first question. The second question Is actually related to that, but it's I think you mentioned. Yep The best way is to have like a talk Uh us out china in Are we really sure about that? So that's my question Especially when when we're thinking about what have been doing for example australia in japan You know australia has been I mean it's still for example fighting Well struggling against the economic coercion from china It's in the double to Well industries are still really suffering from that Uh Japan had this original version of that back in 2010 When rare earth supply was cut and then we we brought that case to wtu and then it was real illegal and So In a way, so we were having trying to australia japan and other countries have been trying to To fight the trend of Of maybe a possible alternative world where weaponization of economic cloud is okay We don't want that we want to say that economic Weaponization of economic cloud is not okay South china see the nine dash lines, etc And then what we're trying to do was that well Well, if a tribunal says something You should obey you should you should abide by the the judging the tribunal international tribunal We don't want a well when power says well some of my ancestors so that so that Well island back in history it's in literature Thereby, that's my land. I mean we don't want that kind of Of rule to be the ruling world So we've been trying to do that. So in a way what I was doing that We have been trying to defend The rules based order as have known it And then trying to push against the The state of school challenge um And then when we're thinking about that and then when we think about The economic the economic version of the nine dash lines or what's happening around senka carland you know Uh, are we really sure about when we're talking about? Like architecture. I would really sure about China in US out as a primary one There is a there is a form like that. I mean our step is like that. It's it's really about Expanding rules and standards to Countries like including laws. I mean, there's a gstem countries like japan g20 countries like australia China and then landlock countries With very low income like like I might just interrupt it to so we have time to Sorry, sorry So two questions about capturing So yes, so um, so first about are we sure about? Uh, us china rivalry Uh, secondly, uh, about are we sure about well, it's related architecture Without us In china, uh, uh, are we really sure about it? Thank you So actually, I think probably the questions were most being directed at you. So perhaps Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, and also maybe even also maybe you want to respond We can share some responsibility But anyway, uh, thank thank you very much for that for these comments and questions and actually your first point was really interesting Yeah, I mean, I think everyone here really knows the problem of china, right? And we have realized, uh, the china has not taken the path we imagined originally And it happened the last 10 years Right, so but the real challenge for us to see international reaction is You know, even though china has changed the last 10 years or maybe over 20 years Right, but the united states kept its engagement policy until Around at least 2015, but maybe trump administration really destroys the you know as the engagement policy so analytically I think for me more important thing is the change of the relationship itself and this change of relationship is Not only caused by change of chinese domestic politics, but also From the u.s Change of engagement policy toward more competitive stance So this is very analytical position. So I never have intention To you know to be with, you know, chinese stance on, you know, liberalism or any other things So but analytically, this is very important. So thank you very much for Making that point and the second thing is I think I really agree with you. I mean, it is very difficult with that us and with china Can we really make a new rules our step is not something, you know Something what we really can see. I mean Our step can go more but our step is really insufficient In terms of rulemaking So I think that to really to aim to Better more inclusive or more high level rulemaking We really need Some new idea, but if we have china And you know, we may have some natural limitation But even with united states the situation might not be, you know changed. This is a problem. We have now So what we do I have to do is I think to make some other core group You know You know, not china, not united states, but some dear important core group who d r e w lose set lose setting rulemaking And to promote more liberalism in, you know, new discussion over trade digital trade and other things. So Evelyn was there anything you wanted to to remark on Following that comment and question Maybe just a very short response to the first question of what what has changed because I think that's actually the most important question and that our answer to that question will you know, determine the rest of the analysis and I think that any simple answer that that places You know, the the the oneness of expectation and change on a single party In the current changing landscape will be inadequate It's very obvious that china has changed And but it's also equally obvious that on the outset of say 1979 To 1989 we expected china to change right Fundamentally we expected all along that china would get more powerful So at least equally Equal weight needs to be put on How much others have failed to change? right And in this regard, of course, I've always said this the united states has failed to imagine itself into a world that isn't determined by u.s. Germany And that that failure alone is the thing the important thing that didn't change That equally explains why we're in this situation today Right, so I'd encourage thinking about what changed but also what failed to change And how together those two dynamics have created what we've got all got to deal with today Not the least japan, which is in an incredibly difficult position In in in that sort of disjuncture if you like i'll stop there I'm going to take now a handful of questions So that we have time to gather as many as possible for the end So I'll do what I can and then we'll give our panelists a couple of minutes each to finalize so Let's start logistically is start at the back and we'll work our way through okay Thank you so much I'm new here in a new as a next-gen student and I'm starting a lot about Australian security and conception or perception in the region so for the good relationship for a good alliance between us So between australia and japan What will be the is there any possible barrier or is there any possible difference between perception for the region Yes, and because for you for us japan alliance We have we have good alliance, but still we have the different goal or different perception So on us and south korea. We have the difference in our Goal or in our perception So what will be so what will be in the case of australia and japan International relationships. So it is my question. Thank you. So We'll come down. We might take a question from the middle section here Just over here if that's possible, please You know the research school of economics So I want to want to ask a very controversial question But I want to start off with that The chinese growth has had a positive impact obviously on the global economy But that was accompanied by military expansion and hence aggression of chinese Especially around the southeast China sea southeast china sea I think So was it the question then is was it a mistake for the us and the west to let china grow and invest heavily in china But the question then is also like should we continue to invest in these socialist and communist Countries that are like china and that could potentially be next china For the west if you don't then chinese are heavily investing in africa And we know those some of these countries are communist or socialist at least so Was it a correct and what should the west do in the future? Thank you. Come to a question here Thank you Didn't realize we had two mics Thanks, my name is izzy. I'm a student here, but I also work for the australian department of home affairs So my question is um Uh evlyn talked about um japan being at the economic security nexus How can japan be successful in influencing others with its domestic economic security laws? particularly countries In azi and the pacific where they have different strategic views Conceptions of threats and different contexts Thank you Okay, one question here. I'm afraid we were not going to be able to take them more We'll take this one question here and then peter peter. You have the final word I don't dare not let you ask Hi there, um, my name is true crystal. I'm with the department of foreign affairs and trade I wanted to ask a question about india And I just wanted to ask if india is from a regional security perspective might be a bit of an achilles heel To us our security groupings noting that obviously they're in the quad But in terms of trade trade often promotes greater security And india often seems quite resistant to liberalizing their their trading relationships, but they also straddle that fence between Still trading with russia Even though sanctions are happening and having to balance that line But also being part of the quad partaking in the the current Games with russia at the moment, um the vostok games So just wanted um whether or not you thought there was more that japan or australia can do through the quad Or whether they might have to come through another avenue that might strengthen that kind of security Thank you and peter Thanks for an incredibly crisp and clear-headed discussion Which has clearly been premised on the acknowledgement that things have changed rather dramatically all sides round So I think that's been the start. This is of course japan is in a very difficult and complicated strategic position in circumstance Uh And what's japan's choice in this circumstance? I want to press the panel a bit on that as I hear you and this is why I want to press you There have been two responses at wama's response, which is to To move more tightly into the slip see forwards one framework, although it Comprehends a fairly small part of japan's external world, frankly and uh What is what other options? What other frameworks are there for thinking about and that's the observation that casting this problem entirely in terms of Japan china strategic competition Although that's central to it Is clearly only part of the story. I mean this is this is a third of the world less than a third of the world now The g7's just over a third of the world The rest of the world's 70 percent of the world that has been alluded to as an important part of the conversation that has to be had Strategically, uh, so, you know, how can japan develop an alternative? A strategic response to the circumstances it faces taking account of Not only that part of the world with which it's closely aligned But the world within which it's closely interdependent including The world in east Asia beyond china And and the south and other parts of the world with which it's deeply engaged Thank you, um, there's been a lot of a lot put on the table here I'm going to give each of our panelists about one minute. I'm afraid no more To answer any of those questions that they might wish to Obviously, we can't get to everything but um iwama sensei I might start with you And then we'll come to our zumba panelist and then finish in reverse order with with sahashi sensei Yeah, um big questions Okay, um, I've been thinking about what we did in the past, you know And the kissinger choice that we made was it a mistake? Um And you know i've been asking lots of people. Do you think it was a mistake many americans and uh um Probably no, um, I think it was a right mistake Well, you could have done it a little bit more nicely to the taiwanese I think But all in all, I don't think it was a mistake that we invested in china's future And and brought so many chinese out of poverty. I think that was a right miss, uh, right decision. Um, we Made several strategic choices. I think the first was 1972 But I think we should have thought a little bit more better after 1989 probably um Yeah, after that we were really into, um, believing and Making us us believe that china would be Something like us Bigger and prosperous and happy It has turned out differently. Well, what do we do in the future? Um That values and what we want and what sort of word we want to live in Um And so I think most of the japanese want to live in this liberal world with Rule of law, right? And so that's what we're going to invest in Um, and how we do that as uh, Peter said g7 is really a shrinking share of the world So we need to reach out to the larger world the global south Including larger parts of asia and africa um As so, you know today I talked to the really the the small core of the hard security, but that obviously that's not enough we need to um Engage with the other parts of the world using our economic development and our energy climate politics um, and hopefully And that comes bring us that aspect of the question in africa because that will be the fastest growing population center of the world and it is in an interest that uh, that part is not just feeding itself, but is also Growing in a way that Values what we've been. Thank you. Right. Thank you. Uh, professor soya Just a minute from you if I may Yes, okay Rather than responding to specific question, let me say a few very general things One is, uh, there was a mention of contradiction between chinese economic Contribution and the kind of military, you know power dimension chinese chinese role and I think uh, You know international politics is full of contradiction. I mean it has dimension of power It has dimension of interest and it has dimension of uh, uh, value And each each one of these contradict each other in many cases and obvious cases with china and I think we have to take it I mean we have to face this contradiction rather than move away from one dimension to to the other And I think that's that's exactly why our approach should be comprehensive. Uh, as I said in my initial remark And as to china my sense is china is in a way an organizing principle You know for everybody in the region And but the nature of china chinese sort of expansion of whatever aggressiveness of whatever has to do with The return of something which is reminiscent of seno-centrism. I would think you know Some of the imperialistic impulse Is coming back and we are dealing with such china and uh, and in order to do this I mean regional countries have to get together. Uh, you know and Join force. I think that that is very very obvious And one concrete thing is to deter the outbreak of taiwan contingency, you know And this I do not mean this by deterring chinese military aggression by us and others But deterring the outbreak of the taiwan contingency is is more comprehensive You know us has a role role in it And uh, so we have to begin to think, you know, chinese challenge from this very overall Historic context otherwise we'll be misguided by our own judgments and and and choices And so, okay, I'll stop here. Yeah Um, evelyn go can I come to you for a final last remark, please? Yes, um, I agree with everything that sire sensei has just said Um, would would would be a quick response. Um, but perhaps just Is there a problem with the sound hello and still hear you can you hear us? Okay, we might come to you Evelyn, can you Yes a word about the china choice And a word about japan's choices Can you hear me And me please say yes We can hear you. Yes Okay, wonderful. Um I I found the question about That assumed that that we there was choice about how the world bought into china's economic opening From the late 1970s to be intriguing Um, and it it seems to elide entirely the capitalist paradox We do recall right that that the chinese economy and china's development is what has entirely saved the world From the crises of western capitalism And we would not have ridden out the global financial crisis the way we wrote out of it without china and the chinese economy Um, so there was no choice and there is no choice Going forward I'm on peter's question about japan's choices Um, I think it's it's very straight, you know, that the framework to think about this is that japan's now got to operate In a regional and an international order that is no longer That's simple one that that relied entirely upon a single pillar Of the u.s alliance and u.s her germany Underpinning an entire order and that challenge is the same for everybody else in the region um, and if we're borrowed from the german exam A german analogy I think what the realm of japan's choices going forward is one in which japan has to transform itself From a vegetarian Into a meat eater but remember the German foreign minister and his famous remarks about in the world of meat eaters vegetarians have a really hard time And I think japan's challenge is quite similar to the german one. It will entail Having to take on and to and to pay out For quite a lot more in the hard security realm Um, but it will also entail having to continue to do the range of comprehensive security Types of approaches that so since then and others have talked about So in other words, you know the walking and chewing gum Challenge for japan is going to be very acute In in the years to come. I'll stop there. Thanks. Thank you so much And the last last word goes to you Thank you very much and thank you very much for many questions comments from the floor Just just very briefly responding to this question. And first of all One student asked about what is where there is any Barriers between, you know, our two nations australia and japan to to further expand our relationship I think traditionally we have a problem. We have different understanding on strategy sometimes because I think uh, you know We have different proximity To geo geostrategic spots like taiwan straight and korean peninsula But I think now, you know, we start to get closer In australian thinking if I am not mistaken That that position is not like just a simple follow-up to u.s. Segemony, right? We are more complex complicated But even even with that, I think we have very we have much in common Between camber and tokyo. So I think now we are getting over that proximity problem But and the second question is about, you know, could should we Invest more to non-democratic country, which could be next china This is excellent question and actually, you know Personally, I want to say no I'm very strong believer of liberalism. I want to say no, but strategically different answer We have to right. This is the kind of dilemma we had during the cold war Right and the key one was a very good example should be better now Right, should we do should we keep our relationship with better now or not? This will be more and more important problem for us Personally, I want to say no, but the strategic as a strategic thinker. I have to say yes so this is very difficult Vicar choice and how about India? India is another very in a behavior like to Moscow Is or even to Beijing is is interesting so so But I think We shouldn't imagine the future with that approach to India This is very important fact because India has future in terms of technology and science Right, we shouldn't ignore that and secondly Strategically India is very important because India-China relationship has really big stumbling blocks So we should use it for our own strategic sake So I think you know, I want to add advice to Japanese government and any other government We have to keep our engagement to India and and also could we really Deepen our economic security cooperation with like ASEAN and global south and others. I think yeah I think we should do that even though they may not Do the same export control and investment control with like us But you know, we can give them opportunity like supply chain management Or you know, hi tech corporation, you know, it could be the opportunity so we can make some deal with them and Sorry, just just one one line to my to my Dispected professor professor Peter Dwight there. So I think what we really have to make Is not that choice now I mean apparent choice because if we say or we cut off the relationship with China it it is really big burden On society. I mean what we really need we should be tougher to China But we we shouldn't take that choice radically. So this is the final thing I want to share Well, thank you so much. We've heard an enormous amount Today about the change that Japan is currently negotiating in the region Please thank you. Thank you. Join me in thanking our panelists Thank you to our panelists in particular for for braving the technological challenge into our tech support for for heroically Persevering and I believe now. I'm to hand over to The organizers for a final No, thanks Okay, it's been a huge day and It's hard to believe it's it's already over. We've been preparing for this for a long time In the pre covid era, we used to have an in-person update Japan update every year and it was an audience of roughly this size And then when the pandemic first hit our immediate Sort of instinct was just cancel it Because we're in lockdown But we made the the big I guess decision to to switch online to zoom at a time when we we really weren't that familiar with zoom It was extremely challenging And the benefit of doing that was we realized we can reach a much bigger audience and we had a lot of people tune in So we made the determination that we were going to try to keep that online audience and and get back to the In-person audience and have a hybrid seminar and we prepared for that last year But of course we went into lockdown right before the the japan update and really disappointed to have to switch Back to the online format, so it's it's wonderful to know that this year we've managed to pull off A hybrid seminar. It hasn't been easy and it's required a a phenomenal support team I'd like to just note. We're probably not including everyone here, but maddie mcdonald jet aplan Moto Haru Kinoshita Hamish Brooks emily furser and Really grateful to tess harwood Who's you probably all have heard from? She's played a phenomenal role working around the clock weekends Her organizational efforts even had a picking flowers in the middle of the night last night in the cold Just so things would look pretty out there She's amazing um, it also requires a Huge part on Even the moderators behalf as you notice. Amy is having to do with panelists behind her Taking questions from the in-person audience the online audience and it's We've all had to really level up to make this happen But we're extremely grateful to our presenters. They've done an amazing job Many of them are the best in their field and it was so heartening when they actually touched down Well, not all of them could make it here, but many of them touched down in Canberra And again, we've had to negotiate the border policies of both countries and as well as all the usual airfare and logistical Arrangements So it's I think we'll never take for granted again that we can invite people from Japan and have them here as as part of the conference been fantastic and I'd now like to hand over to Co-organizer one of the co-organizers Um, professor if you are who we're also very grateful to Yeah, I think I there's anything I can add but let me let me do that a little bit concluding remarks Uh, this is the tense event. So I started the the first up Japan update with Veronica Taylor nine years ago But as you can imagine to start the first event is easy, you know, because it's first to get the funding easy And it's just excited but You know, it's really what is difficult to continue the event with high quality And the shiro Armstrong here has been the engine Of of this event. I hope you agree to that. Yes. I was waiting for you to thank shiro. That was your job Yeah, we have an agreement. That's good Success of this year's event and in the past is mainly thanks to shiro's continuous effort so that Please join me thanking shiro for his continuous effort Wish wish him the success of the update for the next 10 or 20 or 30 events And uh Last but not least and I thank you very much for the Active participation and I great to have a lots of participants here And uh, fantastic discussion. Are we really happy to have such kind of event as of today and uh So that this is the last thing. See you next year. Thank you very much for coming