 Welcome, traders. We're going to get going here in just the next 30 seconds, just waiting for that two o'clock UK time to get started. If you can hear me and you can see the welcome screen, if you could type a Y in the chat box, that would be really useful. Thanks, Leroy. Okay, that's 2PM, UK time, and we are going to get going here. Before I get started, just a quick piece of housekeeping. If you have any questions with respect to any of the charts that I cover today, if you can make a note of those and then at the end of the presentation, I'll open up a brief period of Q&A, and so if you've got any questions, or if there's a chart you'd like me to take a look at that I don't cover in my deck, then you can request me to give a view then. So let's get going. Before we start, obviously, we want to adhere to the risk disclaimer. Most importantly for today's discussion is the views expressed by me are solely representative of my opinions. They're not indicative of or representative of those held by Tickmail UK or Tickmail Europe Limited. So for those of you who are here for the first time, brief introduction to myself. My name is Patrick Manley. After I graduated from King's College London, I joined a city PLC consulting firm. I left with some colleagues and went on to successfully co-found and exit a consulting startup focused on C-suite executive search for technology businesses. Having a front row seat to the dot-com bubble, witnessing people make and lose a fortune in the markets, quite literally at times overnight, I decided to store my curiosity for markets with some capital to play with and some time on my hands. I started day trading the S&P 500, or more appropriately day gambling. After some early beginners' luck, I racked up some pretty solid gains. However, as is often the case, my beginners' luck went out and as the market phase changed, I began to average down into losing positions, giving back all my gains and ultimately experiencing a significant six-figure financial hit. To say this was a gut-wrenching and sobering experience is an understatement. I really had to stand back and figure out if it was feasible for me to make a living from the market. So I decided to get serious about trading and I sought out a mentor with an excellent trading track record. Working with my mentor for a period of 18 months, two years, it was a time during which I had to not just my technical game, in terms of researching, developing, extensively back and forward testing strategies that crucially suit my personality, all of which were underpinned by a rigorous risk management approach. But most importantly, during the period of mentorship, I significantly developed my mental game. And probably most importantly, I made the watershed shift from being a highly goal-orientated individual who was focused purely on financial gains to becoming process-orientated. So what does that actually mean? Well, it means I have stopped focusing on what I could make from the markets and start focusing solely on managing my mindset to allow me to consistently execute my trading strategy. Oftentimes in the face of negative feedback from the markets in the form of losing trades. But once you become process orientated and have a professional trading mindset and you understand the true nature of trading being a numbers game in which you're simply playing the probabilities, you lose the emotional investment and that hellish emotional roller coaster of living and dying by the outcomes of individual trades. So I'm no longer concerned with the outcome of individual trades or even a string of trades. My focus is really on the next 100 trades because I know if I focus on excellence and execution, my edge will demonstrate itself over an extended series of outcomes. My multi-strategy approach has delivered profitable annual returns since 2008. Since 2013, I've also been managing investor capital through a managed account service, delivering again annual positive returns. I'm currently responsible for managing a multi-million dollar portfolio. Since 2010, I have mentored hundreds of private traders of all experienced levels from complete novices to former CME floor traders in developing the technical and mental skills to read consistent returns from the markets. In addition to my fund management and mentoring, I'm engaged in other market-oriented projects. I'm a resident market experts, exclusively providing market and trade analysis to TICML, providing an in-depth daily outlook, breaking down fundamental and technical drivers for the day ahead. I also provide daily technical trade setups for three to five markets. I also run TICML's rapidly expanding e-mini strategy group where I provide a specific daily trade plan with intraday trade updates. Since its inception, it's delivered over 1,200 points of upside. So that gives you a flavor of where I'm coming from. A couple of links I want to share with you. One is this is the TICML trade ideas section on trading view for those who want to follow along with trades that I'm tracking or setups, posting those there. And the other link is to the TICML futures group. You can request access by using this link and access my daily trade plan for the e-mini S&P. And you get intraday updates and trade alerts there. Also access to institutional research alongside those trade updates and the daily trade plan, which is posted as a video here. You can see an example of it before the U.S. open each day. So I strongly suggest you take the chance to join that group, 165 minutes in there now. And you can join in and follow along with my trades. So that brings us to the charts. Let's start with dailies. Let's look through some of these major markets. Sorry, Chris, can I use mt4 to view your screen? Not sure exactly what you mean there. The charts I use are through trading view. There is a link in the e-mini strategy group here. This link, when you click on this, you access my screen as it's set up and the sport and resistance levels that I identify and all the trades, etc. So by clicking on that, you basically get access to this screen here, which is my daily set up charts. Anyway, let's get back to the charts here. Starting with the S&P 500, like I say, some pretty interesting inflection points. Currently, what we're looking at for the S&P is the ideal corrective scenario is that we trade down into this 4240, these prior structure highs, structure low there. So what we'll be looking for is move down into that area and that will be the level at which we'll be looking then to to set long positions. What would be a heads up as to the potential that the correction is actually actually completed here at 4276 will be if we take out this current swing structure here. So we have an equality objective versus yesterday's low and we can see this three-way corrective move play like this back into that prior x-wave high and then get this move down into our 4240 and then we can start to think about this being the fourth wave low and an extension then higher for the fifth wave into the back end of the year. The clue really as to whether or not the correction will be complete is firstly taking out this trend line resistance on a closing basis but then closing above 4486. If we get that closed then we can pretty much determine from a probabilistic perspective that correction is complete and we're going to be moving meaningfully higher into the into the back end of the year. First things first is going to be how we trade at this trend line resistance today 4421 we need to see a close through there that will be the first checkbox really that we that we have a potential low in place but like I say as long as we hold 4486 then we're looking at this 4240 test and then we can see we're going to move meaningfully higher from there. NASDAQ a little bit different because we've actually completed the equality objective so we have our A, B, C low here and now so the NASDAQ has a similar setup to the to the S&P obviously what we're looking at is will we get through the equality objective 15206 it comes in that so the NASDAQ gets up here and we fail this would coincide obviously with the S&P holding its trend line then we look for a return back into the ascending trend line support before again then looking to base and make the move higher into the back end of the year DAX again the DAX came just shy of its equality objective at 40755 so key for the DAX now is going to be how we trade at this trend line because if we hold the trend line and we get a meaningful rejection there then there is still the potential for the DAX to get down into the support zone here before then extending to the upside for this run higher into the ascending trend line resistance which we're coming in around 17300 at the moment so again watch how this watch our price responds at these trend lines if we hold or we get closes through that's going to be our first signal that maybe we have a meaningful low in place and and we are heading higher so then obviously that feeds into the dollar view dollar has been trading pretty consistently within this ascending pitchfork we traded into the top side yesterday we've seen some selling come through we've taken out an internal trend line but this is the key support zone now that we're currently sitting out here so if we hold the 93 90 360 area and we're seeing a bit of profit taking at the moment then what we're ultimately looking for will be another leg to the upside to test this 9502 as the next area of interest coming in just above 95 actually will be the area I'll be watching and then from there we can see another pullback as we head into the potential fed taper into the back end of this year so what we've been looking at there will be the potential for a three wave into test the ascending trend line support for then getting the final extension up into what should give us the 50 percent retracement of the of the entire decline here let's just draw that in for you so you can see we've got the strange one second so yeah we've got the 50 percent retracement and the 161 extension of this swing structure here coming in at the 96 96 30 area so we'll be looking for move into there and then that should act as a more meaningful upside objective and then at a minimum we'd anticipate a pullback equal to this leg here so we'd be thinking about something like this with the dollar would be the the play from here now what's going to be the heads up with the dollar to suggest that this this thesis isn't going to play out well really at this stage we'd have to lose this trend line support so we'd be thinking about something like a close through 92 90 to suggest the upside is over for the dollar and we're going to head back down into the lows and meaningfully lower so whilst we hold certainly at this point this this support stone at the 93 60 sets up a run for 95 but if we fail here then we're looking down into trend line support the 92 90 and a failure there would suggest it's lights out for the dollar for now and we're we're heading back down and resuming the downtrend in the dollar index but holding the support to be key and another extension higher will will inject some more energy to the upside in terms of in terms of the DXY gold so gold is has broken out now of its trend line resistance and we're getting the anticipated extension to the upside so pullbacks to be expected but whilst we hold now this the 7770 area as support we look for a test ultimately now of that 1850 1835 descending trend line resistance now sellers step back in there we do still have that downside target of 1520 and that's versus this much bigger swing structure here so that's what we're looking at in terms of gold but again if we're going to close through that descending trend line that's going to add further weight to the dollar and and then we can start to think about testing the 1917 level again as as range resistance so some pivotal areas of interest for for gold here as as price develops silver silver trying to break out of its descending trend line resistance and put in a base here so watching silver now to see if we can if we can get through trend line resistance and then we look for a test up into its ascending descending trend line resistance up at 2670 and that will kind of coincide with the dollar testing 1850 to the upside and then again we'll see if sellers are going to step back in and take this down again into into the support zone crude obviously been on tear has traded up into the resistance zone that we're tracking the 81 15 and we are seeing a bit of a bit of profit taking potentially here but really now the story for crude is any pullbacks into this trend line support currently coming in just below the 70 dollar barrel is is really going to be an opportunity on the long side and and certainly then you can think about the major fifth way of objective being towards 96 dollars barrel in terms of crude there so take close attention here potential for some profit taking as we hit that that 127 extension and then any three wave pullbacks into the trend line support with bullish reversal patterns we want to be looking on the long side targeting the ascending trend line resistance up towards 96 bitcoin still holding projected ascending trend line support so any pullbacks now in bitcoin back into really we can start to think about these price here now pullbacks into the 50 to 50 level should find support there and then we're looking for an extension up into the 75 000 upside objective for for bitcoin so watch any pullbacks into this prior high here at the 52 6 52600 level bullish reversal patterns on opportunity then to get in on the long side certainly looking for a retest of the prior cycle high 65 000 and then on to that longer return objective of 75 000 dollar yen obviously supported by the the yield story in the us so pullbacks now into these prior highs here uh 12 30 i'll be watching for bullish reversal patterns to set long positions and ultimately then we look for a test of the projected ascending trend line resistance that comes in 116 20 now now let's just see we also have an equality objective developing here let's just draw this in here so this swing so this swing yeah so 115 80 is this big is this larger abc quality objective and then we've got that ascending trend line resistance and that 116 30 also so this is the target zone now as long as we hold the 112 area of support we look for 115 116 in terms of the dollar yen swissie pulling back into to test the support zone so if the swissie can can hold in this area and get some bullish reversal signals here we actually have a target and the quality objective versus this ab low we have a c wave up here upside objective at 96 40 obviously it's going to be key there for the dollar index to hold its support area and and the euro's fine resistance will take a little bit euro over a minute dollar card um extending lower to test now story with the dollar card here is we could still get this inverse head and shoulders scenario play out we don't want to see a loss of 123 15 on the downside if we do then that opens up a retest of the lows in dollar card down to 120 but if we hold here bullish reversal patterns there's an opportunity for at least a three-way corrected move versus this decline and so when I say that what I'm talking about is a minimum objective for any correction is going to be the 50% retracement of this current leg so that would have us um that would have us somewhere back into 126 13 area would be the initial target for any pullback there Singapore dollar looking for looking for this one to get another test of it's ascending trendline support the pitchfork support here by the time you're getting the third test is going to be key we really want to see that hold and get a sharp reaction to a sharp reaction to reversal if we do then the opportunity is going to be on the long side so ultimately take out this yearly pivot at 136 80 but it's going to be key to see how we trade on this trendline and test so that's one that's certainly on the screens that I'm watching the euro I'm running a long position from yesterday but it's running into a bit of resistance here so if if we get a pullback now in the euro that holds the 115 60 of support then we have the potential to put in a three-wave corrective move so we measure this leg here from that current low if we hold it so if we do hold it here then we get to move up into test resistance 116 70 and then from there we can see that next extension lower into the target here at 114 30 and obviously that would coincide with the dollar holding its support and an extending higher so we'll see how the euro trades here but I'm long just just below yesterday's high and we'll see now how we how we fare here with the euro still looking ultimately for at least a three-wave correction and then new lows on the basis that we don't have any meaningful divergence down here at the moment euro swiss looking for the euro swiss to test into the monthly and weekly range support and projected trend line support coming in 106 30 and from there we look for bullish reversal patterns and similar story a minimum target for the correction will be the 50 per cent retracement from the low there so that will take us back up into the 10 towards 108 in terms of the the euro swiss there but again we want to see those bullish reversal patterns before engaging on the long side euro sterling got a bit of weakness here now looking for that final move down to test this projected sending descending trend line support bunch of s3 pivots there looking for 83 50s and that could then complete this cycle and then we should look for a more meaningful correction in terms of euro sterling euro cad we are looking now for one more extension here to the downside looking for a test of this pivot low here the swing low so 142 60s if we can get in there watch the bullish reversal patterns there and again we can think about at least a correction back into these price cycle lows at 145 79 cautious obviously because we don't have any momentum divergence down here so that suggests this will only be a corrective advance and we should see new lows in terms of the euro cad sterling ideally looking for sterling to get a test of this descending trend line resistance so 137 96 now that's going to be a key test because we still have a potential seawave objective down here at 133 20 for sterling could be that we get this type of scenario now we can back in here hold and then get the advance into that descending trend line resistance that descending trend line resistance is going to be key for a bunch of markets really because if we take out this descending trend line resistance on a closing basis that would suggest then that this is our seawave low that it's complete we're not going to get the equality objective and again that will feed into the dollar view because if we get through on a closing basis through 138 then we can think about this correction being complete and then we can start to look again at challenging those 142 50 highs and extending through those so we're going to get some pretty decent trading information out of sterling incoming sessions but whilst we hold below this trend line we still look ultimately for this 133 20 to be checked before we can make that that next leg to the upside in terms of sterling sterling Aussie a nice trend line support coming in here and equality objective at 183 50 and we're paying close attention to how we trade there that could complete this major correction and then we can start to think about a move higher again sterling Aussie back up through that 191 50 so keep a close eye on 183 50 it's the abc equality objective and we've got this ascending trend line support here coming in sterling in has broken out now to the upside well we've got it clear now if we can clear 156 on a closing basis without getting uh without setting up a double top here if we get that closed then the target for sterling on the weekly chart is actually up to 164 but we're going to pay close attention to how price trades here because we could have a pretty significant double top scenario and why do I say that well I say it currently on the basis that we have quite a bit of divergence in play here in terms of sterling yen so this one I'm going to show you in a minute on the four hour chart whether it could be an opportunity in uh later today or tomorrow in terms of sterling yen um we'll take a look at four hour chart in a second on that one last few of these dailies let's check in with the Aussie so the Aussie has taken out its descending trend line resistance so that now sets a target for the Aussie at 75 39 uh as an equality objective versus this swing structure so be looking at potential pullbacks in the Aussie the Aussie yen actually we've got what I'm going to do now is I'm going to jump into the four hour charts and just give you some updates with respect to these these yen pairs because there are potentially a bunch of opportunities coming here so let's start with the sterling yen so you can see we're in this extension into into the top side of the of the pitchforks so what we've got here at the moment if we think about it in terms of wave structure I'll just draw this in for you so you can see so now this one two we've got a potential three four scenario here and this is the fifth wave now when we think about the fifth wave more often than not what we're looking for is an equal uh a wave five that's equal to wave one so if we are going to call this our four low we can see that that extension will take us into this projected ascending trendline resistance 15640 is the area to pay close attention to and certainly if we have this current momentum divergence still in play then what that's going to set up is going to be a uh at least a corrected move equal to this structure here for them taking it higher on small so this is what the play will be is if we get into that 15640 and get a bearish rejection so you know an outside reversal or pinbar rejection from that area then the setup is going to be an opportunity on the short side again we have to have that momentum divergence needs to be maintained and be and keep it in play then we can get back into this 15315 these prior highs and then from there we can start to think about the next major upside extension for sterling end and if we hold that area then certainly we want to be thinking about and move up into the 164 handle so there's a couple of great opportunities here in sterling end one is going to be playing the corrective short side and again you know looking at two or three hundred pit trades here but the main one that we want to pay attention to is going to be once that correction completes the opportunity then is going to be to get in on the long side and hold for a position play really in terms of sterling end so that's one that I'm tracking closely cad yen is another one got a similar type of setup here cad yen structure is a little bit different so we're currently now at this resistance so if we get a bearish rejection here we've got the momentum divergence then what we can think about initially with the cad yen is a correction equal to this move here and then we'd have this fifth wave extension so let's just get the equal leg there so from current levels this is what we've been looking for in terms of the cad yen so I move a correction here we've got momentum divergence so we can look at a bearish rejection looking then for a test of this 9040 area before then looking for a fourth wave low to be in play and then we put a fifth wave upside objective five equals one which will put us up into close to 94 so again the due the the the better opportunity here is not necessarily certainly it's it's a trade to fade this potential third wave high but it's the fourth wave buying opportunity that is the real the real play here for for these yen pairs let's take a look at Ozzy and you can see the setup it's it's similar looking at this resistance area here so we've got just draw this in quickly so we can think about this one two three four then a five somewhere here let's just get a five equals one target so there we go so we're looking for the dolly in towards that 84 50 and then we should see this correct to move replicated to a degree certainly the scale not necessarily the time so I mean the correction could be a bit more complex but in terms of scale we should be looking at something similar to that and then what we have then will be the fifth wave play which is this trade here so if we can get back down into this 83 area then we've got a potential fourth wave lower a high degree fourth wave low that sets up a run to 85 50 and then from there we can start to think about a more meaningful correction playing out something similar in scope to this leg here let's take a look at one more yen pair let's take a look at the Kiwi yen not quite a clean a chart I prefer the Aussie yen at the moment yeah I think I'll leave it there the Aussie yen and the cad yen are two that I think have a really nice clean patterns in play here oh and the sterling ends so those are my three three charts that I'm going to be paying close attention to in the next 24 hours as as opportunities on both the short and then the long side so that's that's a wrap for me that's what I'm watching paying close attention to these equity indexes the FX majors the dollar index and these and these yen crosses are there any questions equally if you don't have a question an end in the chat box is just as useful strongly suggest you take advantage of joining me in the Tickmill Emini S&P futures group received my my daily trade plan and the intraday trade updates as well I've given in that group okay thanks everyone I hope you found that that session useful and we will reconvene at the same time next week take care