 Maybe what could be low probability but could be the biggest story of the year, maybe the biggest story of the decade is the rising protests in China. The protests are over zero COVID lockdowns and kind of the government's general response to COVID and the fact that some people died in a fire interesting the city in which the fire happened where people died is was in in the western part of China so it was close to where I think the Uighurs live so you know suddenly that region is important people are people are going out and demonstrating they're demonstrating they were yesterday demonstrating Beijing and Shanghai and it pretty much every major city in China there were according to the press there were demonstrations at 50 different universities in China and 50 yes or 50 different universities so really unprecedented for China we've seen demonstrations in China we've seen demonstrations around working conditions some places we've seen demonstrations around financial collapse runs on banks where people lost money and they demonstrated we've seen demonstrations when the stock market collapsed we've seen demonstrations around specific issues they usually are local they're not nationwide and they usually stop very quickly these are the broadest demonstrations in terms of scope in terms of number of cities in terms of probably number of people involved maybe since Tiananmen Square maybe since 1989 that is huge certainly this is the biggest challenge that she has faced since he took over as premier 10 years ago and this is the first big challenge to his basically ascension to dictator for life in China you know the the the the the the the vaccination rate in China is very low and to the extent that they were vaccinated they were vaccinated with very ineffective very ineffective Chinese vaccines early on in 2021 so so vaccines have not played much of a role in China I think the regime is really scared of COVID they're scared of what happens in the hospitals they're scared of what happens if a million people die of COVID they're afraid of the social upheaval that result from that and in trying to combat that they have fallen into the trap of of social unrest because of their measures to lock everybody down it we'll get in a minute to more of the demonstrations but the Chinese vaccines that are being used in other in other countries are being particularly ineffective so Chinese vaccines are just not being good in China has resisted using western vaccines partially because I think they view that as a sign of defeat their own companies which are trying desperately to develop mRNA vaccines have failed it's it's it's a complicated process it's not easy and they're still trying but they failed and the the condition under which China was willing to buy Moderna and Pfizer vaccines was if I said Moderna should their intellectual property with China which my understanding is at least Moderna turn them down I think Pfizer did as well and so China turned turn them down rejected them so I mean basically the what has happened is China is now vaccinated and and they're petrified of death rates they're petrified of all will happen but of course the lockdowns have resulted in the kind of social unrest that terrifies them it's not like the rulers in China care about the loss of life it's more about they care about the the social upheaval that might result from that loss of life what's really interesting about these demonstrations is that they are now not limited to just open up COVID stop COVID restrictions the demonstrators are brazenly calling folks she to leave office and they are brazenly calling even for the downfall of the Chinese Communist Party now that never happens so even demonstrations in the past that have happened in China usually limited to a particular issue a particular topic and focus on that and concentrate on that and the limited to that but here what you get is people actually demanding that the Communist Party stop ruling China I mean that is a revolution I mean it's a revolution if it succeeds but it's it's calling in a sense for real change and that again you haven't seen on a scale in China since you know since the since the 1989 Tiananmen Square I mean I wish I could communicate with some of the people who have brought me to China many times kind of the people who are have been fighting for liberty and freedom in China for decades the people who who were involved in promoting a man's ideas but also the ideas of free market economists in China would be fascinating right now to talk to them and find out what they are thinking and what how they view what is going on it is hard maybe you know what maybe I should look them up on Telegram so that's that's what I could you know I could I could try to look them up on Telegram and maybe see if I can talk to them through that I'm sure that Telegram channels with dissidents in China are expressing their views so this morning there were no demonstrations in Beijing and Shanghai and the reason for that is probably whoops what happened to my camera all right I think that's it's still not quite right but okay I mean it's moved around a little there we go that's better although now this is so the cameras tilted down which shows my mic that's fine so today there was no demonstration Beijing in Taiwan to a large extent because there was massive police presence in both places police have gathered around the places where last night they were demonstrations they are stopping people in the street they are taking their cell phones and trying to determine whether on their cell phones they have VPNs VPNs are for the most part illegal in China although most Chinese that I know at least use them constantly so checking VPNs on people phone they're also checking to see if they have Telegram app on people's phone again Telegram is not allowed for use in China which suggests that it's not allowed because the Chinese can't actually monitor it because of its strong encryption so you know that the fear of demonstrators in China is is very simple the Chinese state is a is to a large extent a police state it monitors it knows who you are the fear is jail the fear is you know jail for long periods of time can Google courts and of course because they have cameras and they monitor social media extensively they know who you are what you are their facial recognition software so the fact that people are going out into the streets the fact that people are expressing their opinions the fact that they are chanting suggests that you know people are desperate or less afraid than they used to be and now speaking up I think it's just a matter of time now just a matter of time could be 50 years but it's just a matter of time before the Chinese actually rebel against the powers to be I think they're in for a long period of economic stagnation and and if this zero covert policy continues economic depression which will wire people up and upset the Chinese dramatically I mean the trade-off Chinese have accepted historically has been as long as we have economic growth as long as we can become wealthier as long as the poor become rich or becoming a class as long as things are going well then okay we'll let you be authoritarian but if if part of that gap that deal is no the economy is not going to grow anymore then I'm not sure the Chinese people are gonna just sit back and accept the authoritarian nature of the regime I saw somebody tweet to me today saying China's always been authoritarian they're always gonna be authoritarian that nothing's gonna change I that's super defeatist the West was always authoritarian until it wasn't authoritarian and that took well into the 19th century for the West not to become authoritarian you know the kings were supposedly messages of God who could do anything and could rule you know anyway yet you had emperors you had anyway that culture change and I think the last 40 years a broad real change to China and people have real expectations about certain aspects of their freedom and I think those expectations are growing and as Chinese more and more and more Chinese educated in places like the United States and England and in Europe more generally they come to greater appreciation of freedom and liberty and at some point they're going to demand that the question is when is this the beginning one can hope but it's unlikely but it is it is heartening to see the Chinese people expressing themselves it's hardening to see the Chinese people going out there and and actually talking about this also to those of you and I know there are quite a few of you out there who believe that since COVID is a scam and COVID never existed and people don't die of COVID that the Chinese don't this is not really locked down over COVID this is really locked downs in order to control people well this is a bit of a backlash this is a bigger of a backlash against that theory of control also it is you don't understand China and you don't understand the regime and you don't understand the the kind of what's going on at China if you think that in the name of this kind of control which is you know temporary and and China already had massive control if you think that it is that China is willing to sacrifice its economy sacrifice it's well sacrifice its position in the world sacrifice its potential military buildup because it's going to become poor because of these lockdowns no I mean this is about a fear of COVID this is sure it's always about control it was controlling the west it's certainly about controlling China but it's fundamentally driven by a fear of COVID and using that fear China has the mechanisms of control it doesn't have to lock people up in their homes and it doesn't have to keep pushing and pushing and pushing for years when you know what is really being sacrificed other than obviously human liberty which really being sacrificed is massive economic success and no this is a combination of the of the regime fearing COVID outbreaks and what they will do and how they will be blamed of it after they have promised zero COVID and this is a regime that is comfortable and wants to maintain control and this is a regime that is struggling with now what's going to happen to the economy but it is more afraid I think of what happens if COVID spreads than it is afraid of of the economy and unfortunately there is a lot of mythology in the west about COVID and I think I think that that mythology exists less in in Asia I think they're much more realistic about COVID all right let's see so yeah this is exciting potentially we'll see where it goes we'll see how it develops something to watch first crack maybe probably not the revolution but maybe a first crack maybe you know the first indication that Chinese are willing to fight that Chinese are willing to resist maybe a first kind of warning signal to Xi that his position is not as secure as maybe he has thought it is and and maybe a push for some within the Chinese Communist Party to say huh maybe we've given Xi too much power maybe because I think the next step is not liberty in China it's not that they move from the political system they have today to political system freedom like that or through a civil war I think I think the real shift is going to be some kind of internal struggle which leads to Xi being replaced by somebody more liberal by somebody more open both in terms of economic freedom and in terms maybe of some political freedom and then an evaluation at that point of whether the population is push push push and then maybe gradual movement towards greater political freedom it's not gonna happen I don't think in China all at once I don't think it'll happen through a civil war but it could happen through internal strife within the Chinese Communist Party clearly there are people who are resisting Xi clearly there are people who don't agree with Xi's authority increased authoritarianism with Xi's increased insistence on controls increased insistence on on centralizing power around him most of those people have been I've been ousted from the Politburo from the governing body but they are there they're in the Chinese Communist Party and in these kind of demonstrations this kind of social upheaval could be a stimulus for them to take control but again we will see this is evolving and it won't all happen at once I think again this is a little crack and then there'll be maybe a future crack and there'll be more cracks and then maybe things will start happening faster but again I am inspired by people willing to fight for their own freedom they fight for their own liberty and and certainly some Chinese are willing to do that right now and taking real risks real risk with their life in order to do it so let's keep chipping away at the Chinese wall at the Chinese authoritarian state thank you for listening or watching the Iran book show if you'd like to support the show we make it as easy as possible for you to trade with me you get value from listening you get value from watching show your appreciation you can do that by going to Iran 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