 The following is a presentation of TFNN. The Tiger Technician Hour with your host, Basil Chapman. Call now. Call free at 1-877-927-6648. Hello everyone, Basil Chapman. This is the Tiger Technician's Hour on this Tuesday, the 11th of July. Now we're well into July. Now what we've got is a spike to the upside. You can see this is the one-minute chart on the left, made this dreaded H pattern, went to a peak D. That's what we always anticipate, at least a D in a bicycle going to a bi-mode. Then it turned down. But look at this long rectangle formation of that peak D on the left. When sideways, sideways, sideways, broke below, spiked above it, and then went plunging down from the 44, 58, 75 high. Right now we're at 44, 44. Now one of the things I'm looking at here, and it's a little frustrating for me and certainly for my subscribers, in that we had picked a perfect level to short the semiconductor index via the three times short SOXS, had really nice, really good gains. In the very short term it took a little bit of money off up to about 12%. Then we got stopped out today for earlier morning. Some actually, let me just check because I wouldn't be surprised. Let me just have a look at the low there. Yeah, just by fractions. Even if you waited until the open today, you got stopped out. And now it's running quite nicely because the S&P, I think is kind of vulnerable. The SMH is the semiconductors are kind of vulnerable here. We'll have to figure out how or when we get back in or if that's the place to get back in. But that was a clue for me that we were starting some kind of a rollover and it could be taking time because the nine-period moving average. Let me just go through this right now. So the Dow is up 79. It was up quite a lot more. It was at 34,140 and I said to subscribers. Yesterday's strength was a little more than I anticipated. So we couldn't even get to the 34, 100 to 34, 200 area. So we went to 34,114. Now we're pulling back a little bit, but you can see that. Look, this is the left side chart is the daily chart of the Dow. And yes, that nine-period moving average, which is highlighted there. See, it's still green, but at 34,015 on the green 90 MA and 39,998. Now you're getting less and less room at the distance between the aperture, between the green 90 MA and the black 40 is getting narrower and narrower. The MACD is weak. Stochastic is very weak. On-balance volume is very weak. So you're just being held up by this one fantastic indicator. But we haven't done very much since we took profits in our very kind of aggressive three times long small position, but three times long. This is on the upside. So it's UDOW. We didn't go into the SDOW because I want you to see how it played out in the semiconductor index, first of all. So let me give you a clue as to what I'm looking at. There are patterns that I'm following always. So the one pattern that's really important is, well, first let me just show you, in the Chapman methodology, we're always trying to identify the lowest low bar, not each higher peak, ABCDEFG, but it's at that fourth peak that other things can happen. We see if there's an upgrade from a bias signal to a bi-mode, meaning you should get to at least the D. You can go higher, but you should get at least to a D. Well, on the left side you see the Dow did get to a D. At 34,588, then I'll say the bit of a warning here. We've got a Chapman inverted Roman candle, a red Roman candle, right on that high of the 16th. The very next day we had inverted a red Roman candle. Same implications that if it goes halfway into the wick, be careful to the downside. Well, that's exactly what we did then on the balance. And now it's the other pattern that we look at. If I can just get to that, there it is right there. So I'm always looking at three major trends, straight line, straight line up, straight line down, straight line up formation, arch formation. In the dreaded H, you come down sharply. You make an H pattern and fail at either the peak A or B. And you watch out because if you take out that left side low, you can go quite a bit lower. Well, look what happened. You went to a trough at 33,610. You went to gray leg A, then peak A, then gray B. And now you're turning down, but we didn't get to the 33,610. Now maybe we get to a lowercase H that goes to a lowercase M pattern. To get a new breakout to the upside, you'd have to see 34,700. And I'd say that would be a really good action, but I don't see it just yet. So within that context, you've got the weekly charts still holding very nicely. In the Dow, the S&P is the same thing. S&P has made that peak D at 44,058.28. Just above the 44,48,47 level of about the 16th. So if you do the measurement, I'd say in this particular instance, yes, the magnate is weaker than on the right side than it was on the left side. The stochastic is much weaker. The on balance is always weaker. But that nine-peered moving average over the 14th says it's going to have to be a process to come down. And even then you've got to put more weight into the holding pattern, rather than the breakdown pattern. And it looks the same thing in the QQQQ, except it has the difference to the narrowing, but the black line, the nine-peered, the 14-peered moving average hasn't started to turn down yet. So that's still kind of positive for now for the QQQ, but the MACDs week, stochastic week, on balance volume, but look at the IWM. There's a nice M-shaped pattern with a double extension right here. 189.24 was the high of the... What was that? The 14th or so? Yeah, the 14th of June. We pulled back sharply, retested 188.24, missed it by a dollar, making a test of that high, or a dollar in a penny. And now look at this. Today we went to 188.22. And if I count the peaks, this is again to start a leg C in the weekly chart. First time it's going to go to a C. It needs three cents higher than that high of today. So far, 189.25 will start a leg C in the weekly chart. That's good action. And stochastic is good at 80%. So this is the moment where the small caps are telling us that they're a little bit more important at this particular time in this rotational correction, high-level correction. Let me just do the estimators again. The estimators are saying, look at that big red. Ah, this is upsetting to me. Just barely got stopped out. I would have kept it because we had really nice, very small gains that we took. That would have given us a cushion. And usually I said, let's use that as a cushion. But the strength yesterday was a little bit more than I anticipated. And I said, well, you've got to give it a little leeway. Well, that's OK. Making money is better than losing money. And at the same time, the nine-peered moving average is still not cross-negative. But I think it will. So the semiconductors are really the clue to me to what's going to happen. Let me just go back to this for the very short term because I had said, just shooting a message to the den to say that the 44, what did I say? 44? Let me just go back and scroll up. There you are. So I had said, here comes a test of strength. Oh, OK. There we go. It might be five to 10 minutes after the open that a bigger trend unfolds. No, what I said is 44.62 was resistance. And 44.40 will be the downside for the whole thing. Now we are at 44.40. I'll be back with the image. I'll do it right back. But look at that. Two of you could move the average. We can put the screen in the 10-point chart. 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The opening call newsletter is written by Basil Chapman, creator of the trading methodology known as the Chapman Wave. The Chapman Wave up-down sequence gives you an edge in identifying price turns, finding the peaks and valleys in stock prices. Get the opening call newsletter by Basil Chapman in your inbox every day. First-time subscribers also get a 30-day money-back guarantee. If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. TFNN.com Educating Investors The Chapman Wave Today, TFNN.com Educating Investors The Chapman Wave Hi, folks, so let me just do this. One of the things in the Chapman Wave methodology is when you get through a deal and you pull back sharp and you start to close a couple of times underneath the 14-page moving average, normally I would put it down arrow, but I found over the years, over the thousands and thousands of charts that I've notated in the Chapman Wave methodology in the actual notation itself, that when you get to that top and then it pulls back but that nine-period moving average is still green, there are times where the automatic presentation of putting a down arrow to say sell signal, maybe even a sell mode and then the green nine-period moving average when it crosses negative will take it to a sell mode. That can change, and I've seen so many times lately, particularly lately, that when this arrow is up, you can go to a higher high and still that green nine-period moving average is there. Then you have to say, wait a minute, maybe this is the one, they get the down arrow and that's very often what happens because then you get the measurement, the vertical measurement, at this particular level, with that particular level it says, all the technicals are weakening and this time we might turn down sharper. So in natural gas, this is the UNG, natural gas fund, we've got a peak D with a doji can around about the 23rd or so of June, I may as well give you the exact, this is the continuous contract, 7.83 on the 26th of June, it gives you a one-to-one, this is a beautiful A to B equal C to D, this is what most of the TfN and host talk about, I'd use it in a particular way, I talk about it being a tab and wave one-to-one parallel extension, meaning that when you do this, let me show you the technique that I like to use, in this case I'm just making it nice and thick so that you can see what I'm doing, make it blue on the way down and then pink on the way for the extensions and you, this becomes pink, if it fits exactly, and that's the number of bars on the downside, equally exactly the number of bars to the extension, but not from the bottom of the one-to-one, it's the balance, so it's A to B equal C to D, it's got nothing to do with tab and wave methodology, and then look at Mr. By, it's called 677, and the load actually was 670, how can that be, 678, oh, so I didn't do that correctly, I didn't do that correctly, oh, there it is, 675, so Mr. By 2 or 3 cents, and now it's rallying back, so this is a beautiful tab and wave parallel extension, in other words, the exact number of bars, or the angle has to equal the same as on the left side, and now what you've got, Magdi's week, but try to turn it, try to turn up, Mr. Cassick's very weak at 28%, on balance, it's very good, you see the gray line here, on balance, at about 52%, 53%, that's quite good, and 9 is above the 14, so the question was, I belong, a natural gas, I'd like to add to it, now I don't know whether you are along the UNG or natural gas contract itself, so let's just do them both, in the natural gas contract, we didn't quite do the one to one, my eyes says it was just Mr. By a fraction, but this is a great candle, I would enter right here, but this position, I'd have a different mentality all together, this is the trading position, so you get in at 272 if you're going to and if you're going to, I don't know what month it'll be, but I'm using the continuous contract, I would actually have a stop, now you could have the stop if the 9-speed moving average crosses negative, but that means you'd probably have to go down below today's low of 2.63, probably have to go to about 260 or 258, I don't know if I would have that kind of a stop, so I would say, get a position right now, this is a trading position, the other one can now become a core if it's lower down and this trading position, the 14-period 267, I'd have a very tight stop 263 and if it manages in the next days today, in the next day or two without taking out the 263 entry point and I'd have a stop at the entry point sorry, at the 263 level if it holds that and today or tomorrow it actually gets to, I've got figures here, but I don't want to use them right now because I've got something even better, the higher the fifth was 2.793, if you can get to 2793, all I would do is I would have a split position of the new trading position, I'd have the stop at where we spoke of 263 and I'd raise I'd have a trading stop on half of that position, that's the new position I hope that helps you and the weekly charts are still terrible, so I'm just saying daily charts have to leave the way to help the weekly charts and we'll see what happens and if it actually does get to this new leg, which I'd have to call E slash whatever it is that's where we'd have a test of strength and we'll see the technicals are concurring that's the way I would do it, hope that helps you a blank BLNK in K yeah this is excellent action, I like BLNK charging company, I had another one I mentioned this morning I wonder what that one's how that's doing for subscribers where did it go oh I've got it right here okay let me show you okay so let me just get to my other it is, okay so this is very good, it's above the 50-period moving average, the MACD is strong, the 9-period moving average crossed over yesterday, that's why I wouldn't have got it because it closed yesterday at 669, 668 669 was the high and I probably would have, what was the low today, 664 maybe I would have got it, but I would have had a very, I would have had an entry as a screamer, just either immediately or on a pullback for instance we had one that I wanted to add to our position which is doing fantastically I wanted to add to it to even get it to get a bigger position it didn't pull back to the level I wanted now that one's up, it's also in the whole area of the either battery operation or charging or AI, these are the groups that are working really well at this particular point so I like it all I can say is that the weekly chart, I mean the data is looking great, the weekly chart is horrible and the monthly chart there aren't even words to describe it it is so bad, but that's not the point you have to go from the daily to the weekly if the daily starts to work for a cow for the first time, since it broke down back in a blink a blink charging BLNK is a symbol, up 13 says it's a 681 when it broke down the week of the third of February, look at that it went the week of the 10th of February, it was over the 14-period moving average about 4 bars, it went over it only closed once twice, I'm sorry, over it and then bam it goes from 1364 to 1025, don't tell me about 30% to somebody say about 30% decline is a horrible decline and then it keeps going down and it's only touched the 14-period sorry, the 9-period moving average which returned negative it was negative all the way from the dojo candle of September the 30th I mean what a nice technique this is look at this, using the pink 9-period moving average, and this is the first time you're getting a chance to see the pink moving average get close I don't know if it's going to break above the black 14-period moving average, this is the first time it's even touched that 14-period moving average since earlier this year, so that's a starting point so I like it very much I think it's in play and it's one of those where I don't know if you want to have a stop in your position, you like to get a full position and hold it for a while and in this position, in this case I like it very much it's in leg B this one, if it can close above me the highs of the 14th, 13th, from 2 then the 7th, 7th if it can go into the 7th or 5th, that's going to be really good and here it is at 6-8 I'll be back, that's about it Steve Rhodes started his trading career as a student almost 20 years ago and the student has now become the master Steve won the prestigious Timer of the Year award in 2018 and barely missed that mark again in 2019 finishing at number 2 for the year, an amazing accomplishment Steve Rhodes is committed to sharing his techniques and knowledge with anyone who wants to learn and he shares his vast amount of trading knowledge every day in his Mastering Probability Newsletter Steve's award-winning 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page of TFNN.com I want to do this yesterday I'm still getting used to my email which is getting much better I'm still getting a ton of junk mail but much less than I did before I guess it sorts itself out after a while so I didn't see a goofy guy's question about bots yesterday so bots is we are long global ex robotics and AITF we are long for quite some time now way back there in April May I think it was right there in the 24s it hit 30 just about 30 exactly 30 run number high I took off a tad at that level at the high and we wanted to put back and I would have put back today I'm a little unsure of the reaction going into Thursday Wednesday afternoon to Thursday just based on the 9 period moving averages because this didn't go negative so this is what I'm going to say I'm going to say I like it if you haven't got a position you want to know where you could get in yesterday probably when you spoke to me I said 35 it's only 50-40 cents higher I have a projection of this going to it's all time high of 39-99 in other words 40 back in January of 22 and then going above that to the 55 area just looking out along the term but in the shorter term it's in a choppy sideways move but I think in your case I would start my position now this is not your big position in the sense that if you were going to buy 100 let's just say you could buy 30 right now as we stand at 28 and 82 but be prepared it could come down a point a point and a quarter and still be very positive the weekly chart but the weekly chart starting to stall a little bit technically in the way the magnies narrowing and the sarcastics below 80% but that 9 period moving average so strong to me this is a place that's very important and it will be even more important and then the dreaded H when it went below but close above says that it shouldn't close above this high of the of July of 28.95 but if it does all of a sudden you're looking at the dreaded H the cut the arch formation becoming a really powerful cup formation to the upside so I'm going to say start your engines right on bots get a position and then we can work around it as you on because we're going to be the same as us for anybody who didn't get into our initial position it's almost the same sort of thing I should have done that yesterday I was going to do that would have been a really nice thing you can't do should have what it could have because I think at some point we will test the 28 level so we'll have another chance to meantime that's that's bots and another question came in could I look at MBL why this is mobile I believe if I'm correct I remember this being an Israeli I think this was an Israeli company taken over by some or there was or I might be wrong I think it was this mobile I global engages in developing deployment of advanced driver assistance systems ADAS and autonomous driving yeah I wasn't Google someone took over this company if I remember creating anyway forget that we'll be all looking at here is it's MBL MBL why is the symbol trading down 56 cents of 39 88 I like everything that I've ever read about it this is really it's so important to the advancement of of self-driving cars you're just going to see this become more and more important but even more more significant is that within the context of the the popularity of the stock that was a pretty sharp seller from 47 to the 35s and now it's trying to come back so there's something not 100% right about this it sounds like it's in the perfect area and yet mobile I is mobile I didn't mobile I why he why global something is not 100% correct because it hasn't been participating like the others in the AI area so this is a driver assistance it's really important so as a core position I would I know a person asking it looks at the longer term I would put this in your portfolio now how you do it is up to you but I would get I put my foot in the door right here 3989 now for anyone else in a trading I would wait I'd much rather see how does it hold the 38th if it holds 38 support that's good otherwise is going to test the 37 level which is 200 period moving average again so the and the weekly chart ever look at this weekly chart that is absolutely a sideways that's very much a sideways action so I don't think I'd be in a rush but I would get my foot in the door right now and then I'm able to make an assessment as it moves either in conjunction or it was a disparity to the market itself and I would also include how is it acting to the whole area of AI because this should be part of that sector I'm not sure it is but the ways acting right now is not fantastic it's at a nice rally from 35 to 30 almost 40 yep to 40 that's a good percentage gain but when you think that the 200 period moving average it still looks a little bit like a magnet rather than a propellant I just be a little careful but yes in your case I get my foot in the door but hopefully the door doesn't slam on the way out okay next thing I had a question was I wrote it down here did that did that did that did that Tuesday today's Tuesday right oh next thing that came in was uh yeah you're always I'll just have to sum it up because I now can't find it it's disappeared behind another window you always talk about the IAI which is the broker dealer index and you've mentioned a couple of stocks that you really like over the period of time could you just mention those stocks could you mention them and is there anyone as a favorite so the IAI is that I share broker dealer and security EGF so let me just go through Schwab I had this technique that I use called the Chapman wave volume climax reversal and that was on the 13th of March at 45 round especially with a round number low but it failed in the sense that this particular technique works really well when you immediately go above the gap down high because it has a massive volume and then in 28 sessions you close well above it and that says you can go to 56 sessions without ever touching the 45 round number low well it turns out 45 65 was the was the low in May months later in a dreaded age going to a low case M pattern each time successfully holding the 45 level and now it's basically except for one day it's walked the 9 period moving average at 5795 that's 12 points of the low we had it but I just said I don't like the action because I think it's going to be a retest of the low and it did that but then I think it's actually holding much much better now so Schwab if anyone is interested to tell you to get in now after such a particular point the new recovery high that it's making today is kind of important and the week starts improving so if anyone is interested nibble on Schwab I wouldn't get too carried away but you can just start a position the other one I was talking about was good and I really missed a great opportunity Robin who will talk about it when I return that was up 84 SMBs up 7 the gold report as a precious metal gold is still king it continues to hold the most 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under the symbol VGZ traded at 85 round number high the second month it came out came out in the 30s and screamed up to 85 round number high then we had a little bit of a pullback and that pullback took it to $8.21 I'd say what is that 92% 91% to decline on the 4th of May it made that arch formation that takes you straight up straight down like a steeple like the Eiffel Tower and come straight down but it held the left side low and then the nine-period finally crossed positive and it ran up to the 200-period moving average reversed at peak F sharply down that F was an alternate count F-B and then what it did went to G-STAS C above the 200-period moving average then it went to the D and now it's in leg E and I had drawn I'd done everything for subscribers I said look this is it I even showed it with the left side right side price time match that's the boss symmetry the number of bars on the left and the number of bars on the right and I drew this in and we're oh look at that it's exactly to the day I said 11.52 on the 2nd of February to the I chose the midpoint of a particular candle back in April and I drew in this red on the left side green on the right side and the Chatham Wave inside wedge target repellent line and it said buy this is the bottom and highlight it so you can hear it right there buy the 11th of July it should test 11.52 and the resistance based on the Chatham Wave inside wedge target is dash green line repellent line was in fact for today 11.44 well it's here 11.86 is trading at the high of the day right now in leg E amazing everything there and yet I embarrassing and the weekly chart did the same thing it's a little early getting to leg C remember this is just starting points every peak in the Chatham Wave gets countered that's the whole principle of this particular technique right there so that's an A what it pulls back and it makes another A and then another A now it starts a B and a C as soon as it takes over even the left side height that's an A it's the count that it's in right now that is important that makes it a leg C this is a Chatham Wave overlapping wave this sorry a cup and ladle pattern so I always put it down Chatham Wave cup and ladle leg D and then it makes the left side high that we took out that's the high of 11.52 back in the on the second of February the support level and we should go to a D and then come back and how we then after that test this is going to be really important but if you're looking at the monthly chart at 11.86 this is still a bargain if in fact I'm correct in saying that I believe that public are actually putting in money into the stock market and therefore this should be a beneficiary so all right and then I usually make this grain we look at it much later on to say was I correct was I incorrect or whatever it is and the other one is IBKR I always remember the symbol then I forget what it's called so interactive brokers this is a brand new look Gary went to peak I haven't updated this there's the chapter we've falling exclamation and now this is put this in here pulls back and it goes to a new starting point at the 200 period moving average that becomes an A right there but you've got to count each peak from the bottom so this is an A that's an A as well you've got an overlapping B and now it's in C and it should go to a high high today's high is 86 round number but the real high is going to be the one from three days ago of 87.03 so I should try to tackle that and this is the pattern we were looking at chapter we've falling exclamation I've only got the one line in I just took the other one out and we broke above it that all becomes support right there in fact I usually take it away under like messy charts so that'll come out at some point so this is a very good action right now everything technically is good so that's the reason why I've been saying I don't see a crash or anything at this particular point but I do see a daily consolidation that's kind of what we've been having alright next question came in D dog yeah I in fact just this morning when I was doing my work for my subscribers I looked at D dog and I thought oh this is really good action and I did the analysis for this four coder recently and I said if I'm correct this should be a cup formation 10380 was the high back in early June it dropped down to 91 and then if I'm correct this chapter we've inside wedge target resistance line should get us to 103.80 by the 12th of July and the chapter we've inside wedge target line has resistance at 103.18 well that's not going to work because today it's up 344 3.3% at 104.88 already so it's in leg D in the weekly chart and the weekly chart also had it's actually a week late in the inside in the symmetry the bar symmetry on the left side to the right side but look at that this is the target we had I've had so many of these drawn very nicely not actually traded then either for subscribers or for myself for instance I had one today I don't know how it's doing right now where did I put it okay there it is so this is W no W where did it go I just saw it a second WBX WBX WBX is in the wall box NV DVIPS distributes EV charging station energy management great it was just two weeks ago it was in the twos and today it went to $5.10 leg D and the reason why I didn't put it in for subscribers is I want to see how it's going to deal with the 200p moving average in the daily chart it hasn't been there since I mean just look at the way how important this particular moving average is only when it's important did you need to care about it back in April of this year was it this year no last year 2022 yes look it became support resistance support resistance finding that sine wave said goodbye I'm on my way down and when it broke on the 16th of May of 2022 at 1148 low that was it it just kept going down making lower lows and lower highs finding it hit what did it hit $3 or $2.80 I can't remember it did $3.14 went to peak ABCD EF pulls back gets a G that's like a right arm extension not a rogue wave but a right arm extension G under the 200p moving average can't get there if it gets much closer then it's going to go there but no it has to go all the way back down then it goes all the way to this low that was made on the 2nd of May of this year at 245 244 makes an arch formation and then starts its move up and finally it gets to the 200p moving average now this whole area 4 90 is that correct the high today is 5.10 yes so $5.03 is the 200p moving average even if it pulls back unless it pulls back under 3.90 this is going to be a magnet and it should keep coming back there alright so that's it let me just check all the questions that are coming yeah I'll give you some other questions as soon as you can I'll be back Basil Traffin bowies up 137 as the bees up 11 TFNN has just launched their new trading room the Tiger Zen hosted at discord TFNN has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted 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that based on that 9-period moving average and look at the V-shaped pattern that's trying to unfold in the in the 10-minute chart of the immediate and basically we're in a trading band just a fairly narrow trading band compared to the usual price movement so let me just run this quickly if later in the day by 1.30 to 2 o'clock the Dow which is now up 103.90 is able to hold the plus 90 or more then probably going to have a pretty decent up close if it starts to pull back and it's only up 40 points off to 1.30 then it starts to shrink it just says holding pattern to Fed I think there's a Fed announcement in two weeks time but whatever it is something that comes out tomorrow afternoon regarding the Fed so that's what we're looking at now the other question is oh let me just have a look at that thank you for that information JB in the den high reading did I get a high reading hit the right button and no not high enough for me let's just see no not high enough to make a difference I have a Tringage reading but it didn't give me anything okay so this is what I'm saying that if there is a I think there's going to be a stalling formation going into tomorrow and the way I'm looking at it I keep my eye on the SMH is the semiconductor index because that's semiconductor I didn't finish all the different instruments anyway the SMH is semiconductor has given back some of the game but that nine is still holding above the 14 so all I can say is if there's going to be a sudden turn down this market you probably going to see all of the in sync all of the indices by Friday looking very negative and the 9th reading averages will be under the 14 otherwise it can go like this stalling and a high level consolidation for another day