 Welcome everybody to this future tense event. Our latest social distancing social entitled will we ever fly again. And again apologies for the confusion around the link. It's like getting a last minute. New flight plan from the control tower so it's all very very on brand with with flying here. My name is Andreas Martinez I'm the editorial director of future tense which as many of you know is a partnership that New America. Arizona State University and sleep magazine have to explore how technology is affecting our future in our society, and I am really thrilled today to be joined by two of the great thinkers in the space of aviation. Richard Adolfia, who is the vice president at the teal group, and Henry heart and felt who's the president and travel industry analyst that atmosphere research group. So it's really great to see you both. Thank you for doing this with us and I see that we all. I think we all have some travel porn behind us. I have a old air for air France travel poster for Mexico that I have long cherished and I noticed there was a poster going to Peru for Peru. I think behind your shoulder Henry, maybe there's another is that New Orleans behind your shoulder. Henry, two vintage posters. I have two vintage posters from brand of one for Peru one from New Orleans and an old TWA poster and back of me as well. And is that Venice behind you Richard. Andres, I've got my Venetian quarter behind me a bunch of Venetian for instance. And in this direction to it. More minutes. So it's all been us all the time right behind me. Oh, the places we would, we would go right. I had this poster. I've had it for a while. I think we have a bit of a time lag. I'm sorry about that. But I had this poster. I've had it for a while. I had it back when I was at the New York Times and my then boss Gail Collins would always tease me that I had because I had another one for Rio. And she said these are the places you want to escape to. And I think it's very apropos as we're going to walk down to you reminded of the places we would like to go. And that's a that's a brings me up to, you know, brings up the topic of the conversation today, which is on a serious note. You know, the very serious consequences of this pandemic on how we connect with each other and the future of travel and flight. A bit of, you know, context here. I was looking at some of the numbers out there and I think it's important to remind ourselves that as much as people love to complain about the hassle of flying, or, you know, if we're going back to, you know, January of 2020 and before, people love complaining about the hassle of and the service on flights and we love doing that almost as much as we love to fly itself right because objectively, when you look at various metrics, you know, we were in the golden age of flight and travel with some of the industry, the industry loves to throw out figures like this. Since 1978, when the airline industry was deregulated, the US population has increased by 50%, but the number of people getting on and off airplanes has gone up by 237%. So, statistically, I'm sure that growth would be even more staggering internationally. The domestic like tickets, the price of tickets in 1978 was the equivalent of $695 today for a round trip ticket, and nowadays it's $367, you know, all in with all the fees and such so clearly, you know, more people flying more safely at a lower cost than ever before we've seen this amazing democratization of travel and flight and so again I would stipulate that in many ways it is it has been a golden age. And actually airlines finally it's sort of figured out how to be viable and and and be somewhat profitable in recent years. And then along comes the COVID-19 pandemic. And it's an abrupt stop to all that and as I was thinking about this conversation. This morning I went for a very short run and a couple of blocks from me, I, there's an AMC theater and I was running across the street from that and I saw there was a there was a look like a news crew. The guy with a microphone in front of an AMC multiplex, which is obviously closed here in Maryland, and, and a guy with a lot of authority and and and he looked to have a lot of gravitas was saying, you know, behind me, you know, we will never go back to normal and to see movies the same way so this idea that things are interrupted now we're going back to to the old normal, that's out the window, these places if they ever reopen are going to operate very differently. And it's going to be a third way. And I thought that was sort of a nice accidental question that that he was posing in the context of us going to movies for my conversation with you all which is if, if, if we stipulate that in many ways, you know, these were boom times for flying and the golden age, perhaps if not service wise but in terms of accessibility. Is this amazing drop off that cliff or now, you know, 10, nine, eight, 9% of the people who were flying in January flying today and that's up from four or 5%. Most of our aviation system has been sort of frozen in place and and it's just kind of retrenched waiting to see if we can get back back on. But so my initial question for both of you is whether is that golden age of travel and flight. Is it ended, or is it interrupted. And so when you think of this moment. How does it compare to previous crises and, and again, a year or two years from now we're going to be back to normal with those same levels of traffic, or is this going to be this watershed moment where that's all been lost. So with that small question, Henry why don't I turn to you first and give us your thoughts. Thank you for inviting me to participate today. You know, okay, there's a saying you can never go back to before. We're going to have a series of incremental new normals that will exist for us as societies, not just here in the US but around the world as our countries and communities reopen and air travel will be a party that when we get the approval to start taking non essential travel again. The airports will look differently and what we do will be different we will have health screenings of some kind. We will have C Plexiglas shields up at ticket counters and gates will be wearing face coverings. They'll, you know, the airports may have to limit the number of people in a shop or in a restaurant to support social distancing TSA in the US has already announced that the screening process will be a little bit different. So we will hold on to the boarding pass or mobile device rather than handing it to the screening officer, which by the way proves theory I've had, which is all the scribbling they've done on paper boarding passes has just been, you know, for their own you know I think that that what will happen though is as we make more progress in addressing the virus up until we have the vaccine which is the magic point. We will see things continue to evolve. So some airlines that are blocking middle seats will stop doing that social spacing may or may not diminish or go away again based on guidelines from public health. The vaccine is going to be not just the availability of it but when we can be inoculated that's the tipping point for when travel really resumes. So we'll travel start back up will we be going to places like New Orleans or Venice or Mexico or Rio or Peru, or wherever it is even our mothers in law. The answer is yes, but you know it's not going to be a massive stampede it we believe it will be a two to three year recovery timeline. At this point, we think because businesses will be slower to resume traveling and conventions and conferences which count for large numbers of people will be the last part of business travel to recover. It's probably closer at this point to a three year timeline. It will be less convenient to travel there will be fewer nonstop flights to fewer places you may have to make a connection where before you could fly nonstop or two connections or maybe you made one. But over time, as the airline see bookings build up, they will bring more of their aircraft back from the desert. The research we're doing with airlines on a weekly basis, and for that matter hotels as well shows growing positive momentum in bookings. But it's nowhere close to what anyone would consider normal. Got it. Thanks. That's that's really helpful context to and that. I'm glad you mentioned the hotel equation because obviously like whether we fly and some measures going to be dictated by whether you know that there's a whole ecosystem of travel and you know the business will encourage their employees to hit the road again will conventions occur, all of these activities that New York Times had a nice piece this morning calling it the experience economy right like live sport conventions. So it's not just airlines in in in isolation. But Richard how do you think of this crisis of aviation compared to other things that you've seen in your in your long distinguished career. I'm a certain age right guys. You know, first of all no disagreement at all with what Henry said, I think we'll be back. We're coming back. It's going to be a painful process. Henry's numbers three years that's probably a reasonably good. We'll call it a baseline optimistic scenario, but let's unpack all this right. First of all, yes, the numbers are utterly terrifying. You know, every other exogenous shock that's hit the system and demand for air travel in the past. When the year ended we were down to three, three and a half was the record percent year over year in terms of revenue passenger miles. Okay, those were isolated moments. According to Iota if we have a miraculous and very unlikely fourth quarter recovery will be down by 48% this year. Nothing like that ever. More likely 556065% down depending upon the recovery because like Henry I'm kind of a vaccine fundamentalist it doesn't really come back strong till we have a vaccine so this is different. But then you know, psychologically, gosh, I'm late middle age now maybe or something. I was early middle age back in 2001 middle age and I remember being utterly shocked and terrified by 911 the images of terrorists hijacking planes and flying into buildings. I'm frankly not filled with terror. I mean, we all have to be mindful of a terrible disease but is it really to digest. No, can it be managed on jets. Yes, this I would have been on 911 changing more than it did. And I'm not really sure I see this changing that much. Now, there are big challenges. But you know for the decade, two decades after 911 a decade before this, you know, whatever the 2010s. We'd actually been growing at an above trend rate in terms of air traffic demand growth and 2017 was 7.6% year over year 2018 was 6.5% year over year. 2019 was a bit of a down shift but still, you know, four and a half or somewhere in that zone. And the evidence was that people were traveling more and more. And what were the drivers well you on the tourism side. It was millennials and a greater reliance or a greater emphasis on experiences rather than possessions for a lot of that demographic. That's going to continue. And on the business side. What is it you know frankly it's fear of competition. You don't want your competitor to meet with a client or a partner or somebody, and you not to. So you all go to these places you can talk all you want about corporate cutbacks in the travel department. Oh, they're going to think things different about conferences, until their competitors start to go, and they don't, and they lose market share. I'm just a consultant, but that's the way I think that's the way everybody I think in my industry will come to think. So I'm not worried. I'm concerned about the next few years, exactly what Henry said, but we're going to be back there. We want to just to get to gauge people's personal appetite and willingness to fly in this transition period, which could be rather extended before we have a vaccine. I think we, we have a poll question prepared that all of you participating watching us can can answer in fact the three of us cannot answer it so question is would you get on a plane the next week to go somewhere you want to go, but don't have to. In other words, it's not a life and death matter that you travel just if it's somebody made it very attractive to you to get on a plane to go somewhere that you really want to have wanted to go. Would you be willing to do so in this period we're just trying to get a sense of how people feel about this and sorry Henry I know you wanted to say something. So what I wanted to add is that we have heard the expressions fear of missing out and you only live once FOMO and YOLO. And, and I think that being sheltered in place for a month or two or more. There are going to be a lot of people who will want to take a trip, but also will have a new appreciation for for the privilege of traveling. The concern that I have is, well, there are a couple of concerns. First, obviously, the air transport industry needs to make sure people are confident about traveling, and that they understand the many steps that airports and airlines alike are trying to keep their facilities and aircraft clean. But also, we have to have the money to travel. And that the economic impact of this virus in terms of lost jobs, lost wages, closed or failed businesses and so on, we're, we're only starting to get a sense of what that could be. And, and one thing that I will say is that we'll certainly have an impact on some portion of travel demand, mostly leisure travel, but more than likely the, you know, people who are and the lower end of the earning spectrum. So, you know, that will certainly have an effect on some airlines. On the other hand, you're going to have people who will emerge from this with the desire to travel, the financial means to travel. In some cases, you know, spouses who are telling them to travel, whether they want to take a trip or not. And so, again, I think that there certainly is the desire to travel. And to be sure it is safe to get there that we will believe we will be safe on our way to the, our destination, and that heaven forbid something happens will be safe when we're there but that it's going to be safe for us to return home. And that's a new dynamic to Richard's point about 911. And this is very different. It introduces new and different anxieties that we may have that have nothing to do with travel itself, but their issues of fear and trust that will affect do even want to go to a restaurant, let alone take a trip. One of the things. Yes, it's I mean, there was a lot of anxiety. It's funny. Once upon a time, the anxieties around flying and you know if we were having this conversation before our time in the 1950s or 1940s the idea that your biggest concern was whether the plane was going to make it to its destination without crashing right there was a much higher incidence of, of just crashing because of aircraft malfunction or whatnot. And then, you know, all the anxieties around 911 had to do with, you know, terrorism and whether your aircraft was going to be overtaken by hostile actors and therefore we saw this whole slew of changes in the way that we travel and and and massive investments in the infrastructure of travel because airports had to be retrofitted so that our, our suitcases could be x-rayed. Even our checked luggage and we can no longer meet our relatives or friends at the gate because we all have to go through security and we're going to limit it to people who are flying and, and you can bring liquids and let's take our shoes off at etc etc. And, you know, I, I do feel that, you know, I think Richard does provide some perspective and pointing out that things didn't change as radically as we would have imagined on September 12, 2001 I was at the times, back then and kind of covering aviation issues on the editorial I remember my editor saying, well from now on you know if you want to get on a plane it's going to, it's going to take half a day to check in and, and that's okay because we can't go through this again and I was, you know, and thinking like, yeah I'm not sure that's going to hold you know, six months from now a year from now to years and you know lo and behold, not that long after that we're able to check in on our you know at home before boarding a plane. It is, it is good to have that perspective, although as you point out Henry some of the challenges here are, you know, very different and if your concern is a contagious pandemic, being on a small aircraft with, you know, 200 other potential, you know, some of those factors is quite daunting and you know we used to, some of those struggles that you'd have with the person next to you for the arm rest in the middle seat, they felt like, you know life and that struggles but you know it was just a hassle and now, you know, you do you're going to think of it in the in those terms and so I did want to ask you something although, first of all, we have our poll results and it's interesting. 70% of you watching would feel comfortable getting on a plane to go somewhere you really want to go within the next week. 70% no. I saw there was a similar poll or a more extensive poll on on the points guy website. And they had a very similar results with 20% of their respondents saying they would be comfortable getting on a on a domestic flight and only 10% on an international flight. But getting back to this question of the measures that the industry is going to take to make us feel comfortable flying in this environment. Henry, you were talking about some of the changes that that might be introduced and in the way in which we go through security and now, you know, health being a component of that. Do you anticipate that that a lot of that will be done airline by airline or is this going to be something that you know it's going to be. There will be the the TSA will take on and they'll be sort of a standard industry approach to what you know initially, as airlines have scrambled to adjust to this moment, we've seen variations right. I think jet blue was requiring the mask of all passengers before the other carriers caught up airlines have had different policies on whether or not to block out a certain number of seats in the middle seats, etc. I think that we're going to soon get to the point where this is going to be sort of regulated industry wide the same way that you know locking the cockpit door is regulated it's not left to each airline out of the terrorism concern. I'm sorry for this for a health screen to work well, it needs to be at a minimum on a country by country basis but ideally on a worldwide basis. I believe that the year transport industry, airports and airlines together will work to create some standards iota and airport Council international. I believe have proposed some standards for airlines and airports to embrace for health screening. What travelers need and value is consistency, because while you can have some discrepancies in terms of do you take your shoes off or your belt off or not laptops in or laptops out toiletries and toiletries out for security. Health screening can affect our lives. And I think that travelers will demand consistency in terms of not only the convenience and the certainty it provides, but the assurance that it provides that everywhere, every airport, smaller large developed country or developing country is applying the same standards in the same way. And that will be absolutely essential, and it will be better for the air transport industry to create and propose these standards themselves, rather than having government do it because we always know that when we do things we can think of unintended consequences for them. Government policies don't always do so and inevitably that results in it changes, reversals, whatever. And so, it has to be for this to be effective, global, and it has to measure the things that matter, we need to have assurance that the people going on getting on an airplane at an airport, whether it's an employee or a passenger has a reasonable chance of being healthy that they do not have the virus. I was a I won't say I was amused but it was interesting to get an email yesterday from United Airlines and then I saw it all over the news that they were they were proudly announcing this new partnership with Clorox and the Cleveland clinic to make sure that they're you know up to doing the utmost to keep their aircraft clean and with the consultation of Cleveland clinic and Clorox and I just thought it was a remarkable sign of the times that you know I'm sure every airline would love to have Clorox as their as a key partner. Whereas a year ago I think you know if the CEO of Clorox had called the CEO of United I'm not sure that phone call would have been returned but now it's like we've got Clorox. But Richard I want to pivot to you we have a question from Gerardo Peña I'm looking at the Q&A here so feel free to add your questions and this is very related to what we're talking about. To a serious note, do you think that cabin systems such as HEPA filter improvements can mitigate the risk of COVID-19 or are our masks also going to be enough to cover this and also wanted to give a shout out to your you know that question Richard you wrote a very good article for Future Tense on Slate about this this interesting idea that in the past airlines had sort of an implicit if not explicit rule that they didn't compete against each other on safety but really interesting insight I hadn't thought of that but you know you don't boast about how few crashes you've had or the fact that you know maybe your airline was in hijacked and others were what not but that was sort of an unspoken rule and how in this current environment the those lines are going to get blurry in terms of when you are marketing and making boasts about the comfort of your you know business class or what not there's already been a lot of discussion about you know seat with and and whether you know how much space you have on the aircraft is that advertising that has to do with health and safety or is that advertising that has to do with you know just with general comfort so maybe talk a little bit about the airbus antecedent to this that you that you wrote about in the article and then also your sense on whether the filters in the cabins and the way that the air is recycled perhaps more than people often realize despite all the other constraints whether that gives you confidence and that and wearing a mask. Thanks for the reference the article you know the the Airbus ad which is about 20 years ago represented one of those very rare moments when people were foolish enough to compete on safety and they had a poster that said four engines over the ocean with something along those lines and stormy seas dark skies and their four engine a340 which was losing very badly and now well out of production for many years was basically touted as a safer way of doing longer safer than than flying a two engine jet. Every airline customer was kind of appalled and said hey if you ever do that again we're not buying your bus and you know it hasn't been done since and I think a degree of competition as you say is now going to be a bit inevitable. And as I said in the news yesterday from about united and Korox I was kind of somewhere order line mortified. I mean, this represents a threat to passengers this pandemic. And well we're partnering with people who sniff for explosives and making sure that our planes are going to be bomb free. Now this is amateur hour. Honestly, this needs to be done through the system in conjunction with regulators. And you don't imply that your competitors are less safe and you don't imply that passengers are in any way at risk by flying so I was a little bit appalled by that. Now I think the question is important about they have the filters it's it you know people have this masks gloves. There are so many other proactive measures that can be taken until we get that vaccine that Henry and I want. You know, as they give it as an architecture of safety improvements and the study of, you know, even even weird droplets go when someone sneezes this is becoming a huge area of research. How can you change your circulation patterns to make sure it doesn't spread. Are there blue lights and things that can be introduced to Kevin's that can increase virus mortality on services. There are so many things in addition to the filtration which is already excellent and will no doubt get better. So in other words, it's not a question of wearing a wearing PPE and taking your life into your hands until that vaccine is there. So there's going to be a whole host of improvements that are introduced that greatly mitigate the risk here. But getting back to the United question. I really think this has got to be done industry wide and not with airlines for actually competing on the basis of safety. You know, it's interesting. Cleanliness is the new business class wine, if you will. So the way I see the United announcement is is, you know, they're touting a partnership with a name brand that a lot of consumers know and trust in an effort to provide more confidence. But what's interesting is now you have airlines competing on cleanliness and hygiene, whereas, you know, a year or two years ago they were touting their premium cabin, live flat seats or their wine lists or their airport lounges or frequent flyer programs on time performance whatever it might be. So I don't see them necessarily competing against one another that I'm stein cleaner than you, because Richard makes a really, really good point. That's a no win argument. What they're trying to do is to say, Hey, we're taking steps to be clean. Here's how now what's all going to be interesting. And my background is is on the marketing and planning side is Well, when we look at this, do the airlines that tout what they're doing about their cleanliness and hygiene, end up winning disproportionate market share or commanding a higher revenue than the airlines that don't communicate at all or communicate will see is someone going to care if you use Lysol versus Clorox or Clorox versus some industrial brand that we've never heard of. No, I don't think so. I don't know that that's going to get you a lot. And unfortunately, you know now Clorox and Lysol are the butt of jokes because of some political stuff. So, you know, you've got people wondering is Clorox the new in flight beverage. Yeah, the United Partnership, by the way, is called United Clean Plus, which also sounds like it could be like a special section on the plane that somewhere between first business or like an elite tier. But you know frontier airlines, much smaller airline. I'm not sure I've flown the new iteration of frontier, but but they've been making all sorts of news on on, you know, in terms of their response to the pandemic I think they're the first to take their temperatures before boarding or at least they announced an intention to do so I'm not quite clear. But there was a big brouhaha when they rushed to have what seemed like you know it's depending again depending on how you interpret these things. It was a sensible policy of if you want to guarantee that the middle seat next to you is going to be vacant, you know, we're going to charge $39 for that. So it was quite an uproar. And again it gets to this point of, are you suggesting that if you don't spend this $39, you know, you might be morally endangered and if you are why are you charging me the $39 right. You know, a lot of people pointed out that for years many airlines have have discreetly had policies maybe not frontier, where you could actually do that you could actually I think more on the sort of international carrier side. You could pay extra to block a seat next to you without necessarily buying two full seats and nobody, you know, thought twice about it because it was it was not in the context of this is a health issue in the in the middle of a pandemic that was understood to be more about space and comfort so I think I think how all these airlines navigate this and you know I don't mean to be too snarky about United I think that's an airline that's actually like improved on a lot of fronts prior to this and and it ends up being the airline that I fly a lot. But there was something about the announcement and you know I, I, you know, you can knock these guys for doing everything in their power to try to reassure the public without going too far and making false claims and to try to partner with experts who can help them. It makes great sense but but it but we are in this moment of uncertainty where, if they're touting that, you know, to Richard's point is it's suggestive that maybe you know, boy those airlines that don't have the benefit of the wisdom of medical wisdom of Cleveland clinic and the practical know how of Clorox, you know good luck with them you know it's it's it's the sort of fuzzy territory that we're were navigating. You know, I would have been fine with the announcement with the insertion of just one, you know, sentence which is, and we're researching this hard and sharing it with regulatory bodies and all of our competitors to keep the traveling public safe. Other than that, you know, there's the implication of exclusivity and competition for safety, a dysfunctional idea. Andress to to your point about frontier. It was a smart idea, but it's at the wrong time. Right now when we're trying to make sure people feel confident about getting back on airplanes when 22% only 22% of people watching this webinar about flying and I have to believe a fair number of them have some kind of role or strong interest in aviation and air transport, one in five of us say we get on a plane next week. So this just wasn't the time for frontier to say you know what, we're going to let you pay for your health safety. Now, airlines need to make sure people are confident. And that means taking steps to do the right thing. Social distancing face masks, leaving middle seats empty. We will get to a point, hopefully soon where airlines can say okay, you know what, now we're confident we're getting to the next incremental stage of normal travel. Middle seats can be purchased to keep them empty if you would like. I think at that point it's perfectly reasonable and there's nothing wrong with it. You know, JetBlue has said they will leave their middle seats empty only until July 4 or so at this point. Now they may extend it, they may not. I don't know how long Delta or other airlines plan to leave their middle seats empty at this point. Middle seats. I just wanted to interject a question from Gautam Chagi and apologies if I'm mispronouncing your name. If we have a three year return to complete normal, could we see some airlines developing a different cabin layout to truly differentiate themselves. And this kind of, this dovetails with the economics of flying. I think we have a second poll question that is sort of related. Would you pay 33% more for each ticket that you acquire if in return the airlines are fraying from selling one third of the seats on the plane. I think this is one of the, you know, if I started the conversation by talking about the democratization of flight and travel and just the volumes I feel like as a flying public our deal with these airlines has been you cram as many of us on to those aircraft as you can to keep the fares as low as you can. We're still going to bitch about the service but that's been our deal basically, and anytime airlines have tried to deviate from that it hasn't gotten well for them. And now, you know, question for both of you and it connects to the Gautam's question and to this poll question which I invite everybody to answer. Are we going to see a fundamental renegotiation of that and go back to a, you know, the older days when when flight was a more elite activity because we don't want to be wrestling with somebody for an arm rest because it's not just uncomfortable and you might deem it unsafe. Kind of a question for both of you. I want my 707 piano lounge back so you know that that's cool. You know it's a great question and it raises the issue of for the next year and a half two years till we have that vaccine. How do the local low cost carriers survive with their high density layouts, because the entire basis of their competitive differentiation is pricing by, as you say, cramming people in. How do they survive it's not like they can coast on international long haul premium traffic, the way United Twitter somebody. It's really difficult for the likes of frontier spirit spirit Ryan was here, you know, easy jet. It's going to take something. And obviously getting to the heart of the question, there are all sorts of possibilities whether they're compatible with that ultra low cost carrier business model. I have no idea. You know, I mean, anyone who's had the quote pleasure unquote of flying first class business class in domestic European flights knows that you get an economy class seat with a plastic seat insert next to you in the middle. That's an option. Another is obviously more pitch. There's all sorts of possibilities but again, none are compatible with the kind of cattle car layout that has driven so much growth in this business. So, so I will say that that it is going to be possible. You know, the challenge is that airlines frankly are are lousy marketers for the most part. They, they, especially in the US. They've allowed price to dictate the brand and everything else and they've competed on price in the 40 plus years that the industry has been deregulated and they do that because they have failed to adequately invest in product and they have failed to adequately invest in their own digital platforms and other reservation systems to retail and merchandise themselves the way they should. This is an opportunity for maybe one or two airlines within the US and elsewhere, so you know what, we are going to stop trying to compete for every breathing person who wants to go from a to B. To a certain type of audience, whether that's high and mid market or low low end. And our product will be adjusted accordingly. So at the high end, maybe we do have some carriers that choose to be more premium, even in standard economy, where pitch is more generous and where you can potentially buy the middle seat to allow that to remain empty, and other steps like that. The airlines know that they've got to compete or at least the global network airlines compete for corporate travel and price is very important there, but so is value. And this crisis is ending the purchase decision and travel managers that think that all they have to do is negotiate the best price are wrong. And they're going to come out there there. Travelers are going to say, if you're not taking care of my health. I won't take that trip. And so there's going to be this change. So there will be an opportunity just as there is in retail, just as there is in dining, just as there is in the automotive industry, just as there is the hotel industry and almost everything else for a few brands to emerge as premium providers, and others to fall below that, based on what their costs are, what they believe they can credibly compete on to win, and where they believe the market is going to value them. And I think Wall Street will favorably respond to this. If one airline can say, you know what, we're not the largest airline, but we're generating margins of 25, 30% on something or even 15%, but on a very large ticket price. And the investors may be happy with that. It's class versus mess. Yeah, it's going to be interesting to see I noticed somewhere I saw a headline that and maybe this was falls on the category of rumor that Delta was considering having some flights operate with an all business class cabin which reminded me of certain. Very niche carriers that tried that transatlantically when it didn't make any sense but now when people are, I mean obviously like if you had the means you would you would fly in a private plane every time, especially now that is not beyond, you know, it's not within the reach of most of us. But some some, you know, that some kind of innovation in terms of trying to separate premium flyers might be in the in the offering but I wanted to ask also ask this question, you know, going back to the idea of the inevitability of an, you know, up until the end of 2019 it just seemed that inevitably the numbers of people flying, connecting to new places, getting to know the world, especially when you see you know the rising middle class and China and India and elsewhere in the world that that was just going to continue to increase indefinitely and inevitably and yet at the same time we were starting to see some signs. Something to do with the pandemic that perhaps this wasn't sustainable for other longer term reasons, you know, and namely the environment and there was starting to be some bubbling and in some quarters particularly in Europe, this concept of flight shaming and this kind of, you know, do you really absolutely have to get on that plane and perhaps contribute to climate change. And I don't know if these, you know, if this immediate crisis that has frozen us in place, and that kind of simmering longer term crisis that may or may not have started to be a concern for the industry. If there's any connection between those two and when you guys talk to the decision makers in this industry, which I don't really have much opportunity to but I but you guys are plugged in the room. Do you hear hear that concern that well maybe we need to rethink some things because at the end of the day we're not going to be able to have the same volume of traffic for other reasons I mean, what do you guys think about that. Well, I mean sustainability hasn't gone away. And in a way, Andres, if you think about it, during this lockdown, aviation emission related emissions have fallen by approximately 60%, according to some reports. You know, the, I think the industry is going to be retiring a whole bunch of older aircraft, American has announced it's retiring it's 767 and 757 fleets and it's a 330s. Delta is getting rid of its MD 88 MD 90s and some other older aircraft. Other airlines will likewise be getting rid of some of their older planes Air France is grounding it's a 380s which are only 10 years old when you think about it. The, you know, the new aircraft that will be backfilling them will be newer and more fuel efficient the airplanes that are in the fleets now will end up being more fuel efficient, better with carbon emissions. The airlines may have to slow track certain investments in the need of preserving cash and being responsible financial stewards of their own money. But they also know that their next generation of customers or next generations of customers haven't taken their eye off of environment or sustainability and if anything, this crisis, I think has served as a little bit of a wake up call. There have been numerous news articles and reports about how we're seeing major cities with animals in them that we hadn't seen there are jellyfish floating through the canals of Venice. So, you know, I don't think that part's going to change but I don't know that we'll have the flight shaming I certainly hope that backs down a little. Because I also hope people understand what an economic driver aviation is for their communities for their industries for their countries. You know, from my standpoint, I agree of course with all of that, you know, but the big growth markets for aviation are not northern Europe. And so far, this is a northern European thing rightly or wrongly. In Asia, Middle East, nobody really thinks much about the environment there and the impact of things. It might be something you talk about and even within Europe, you know, my favorite anecdote from last summer, which was really when, when Greater Thunberg crusade began to get going. You know, you had KLM but that legendary notice on their website saying, Have you reconsidered this? Do you really need to fly or set the along those lines? And at the same time, Air France was lobbying against a one euro 50 cent carbon tax by the French government. And, okay, those are the same airline Air France and KLM are the same holding company. Well, obviously one is marketing with the Dutch in mind and our good friends in the Netherlands are environmentally conscious. The French maybe not so much. So it just goes to show this is really more of a northern European thing. So we had a good question about whether we can expect some internationally recognized immunity passports as something that might soon kick in for us to be able to board aircraft. Henry, do you hear much about this? Yes, it's that's something that's been widely discussed and there are a number of issues around it. Who would administer this would it be done through a global organization like a World Health Organization at a national level and so on. I know there are a lot of issues about contact tracing that come into this privacy and so and matters like that. And I respect them, but this is a matter of public health and public safety. So I think the concept of an immunity passport makes sense. I think that it would be great if the air transport industry could be a leader here and try to develop something that frankly could be shared throughout the world. But it is developed with the mindset of providing the confidence people need that when you're at the airport on the airplane, the other people around you are healthy enough to be traveling. The challenge will be, is it going to be binary, you're either healthy enough to travel or not, or would it be a series of gradations. So, red, you know, you can't travel at all, yellow, you can travel with certain restrictions, green, you're fine. I don't know, but I like the idea of an immunity passport. But it has to be thought through carefully. The data is going to be very sensitive. It will have to be guarded, and we will have to accept that we will have to give up a little bit of privacy. If we want to be able to take that trip. I think the trade off is reasonable. And again, I think there have to be adequate safeguards in place. Everyone's are going to try to monetize this and sell your data to an insurance company, or, you know, whatever else would have to be done. You just gave them the idea. No, I'm just kidding. This would be a new version of the don't fly list, right? It's like on. Yeah, I mean, if you're not. Yeah, but I think that to Richard's point, going back to what he made about 911, we have a do not fly list. And, and, you know, if you're not healthy enough to travel, then you shouldn't be allowed on an airplane. I mean, we've all been there all of us on watching this webinar have at least once, probably within the past couple of years, become ill from someone who is on a plane with a cold or floor or whatever. That person shouldn't have traveled. He or she did. We paid the price. We can't do this with this virus. Yeah, I'm a fan of the airlines confidential podcast and they they had a good point about, you know, just the ways in which the industry needs to shift how it thinks. They made the point that if you know if I prior to this if I called up United and said hey I'm not feeling well today I can't get on my flight. And they're like great we'll pay you know if you pay $200 will change your, your ticket and it's like wait I mean I don't feel well did you hear that part of it. And so, obviously we're in for a massive reset in terms of how airlines think about this. Richard sorry you were going to say something. No, no just nodding my head you know it sounds a bit dystopian, you know the health passport but I'm afraid until that vaccine becomes available it just makes a great deal of sense. So one last question because this time has flown by and then feel free to add any thoughts on things that you feel we didn't get to that we can expect in terms of lasting change from this period but Hazel Weiser wrote about, you know, we might come up with all of these new standards and new approaches but how confident are you on enforcement of them and who is the right entity to enforce them, which is a really interesting question. And then, as I said any any other thoughts about where we might be five 10 years from now. Yeah, boy that's a great question. You know obviously you had the creation of the modern DHS TSA and the aftermath of 911 and critics call it security theater and other people say it's necessary and essential. Maybe that we have the same kind of, well, maybe the establishment of a new entity that does this, hopefully under government auspices hopefully on a worldwide basis because as I believe, Henry, or perhaps on this said before, this needs to be for the safety of a global effort. But obviously it can't be up to the private sector I think it really needs to be governmental regulatory and hopefully it won't be health theater to follow security theater it'll be, you know, done with done with scientifically established protocols and techniques in mind. No, no, I agree with what what Richard said I mean I think that, you know, we, we can't afford to take a chance on this invisible enemy, if you will, and, and so we have to take steps to make sure that air travel is as safe from a health standpoint as it is from a maintenance standpoint. We value the convenience, the fluidity that air travel provides. It's essential to how we do business to shipping goods to people moving from point A to point B. So, you know, I am confident that we're going to recover. What I think is really interesting though is, as I look at it, I'm wondering if this won't be an opportunity for airlines to rethink some of their business strategy, especially in the US, but also in China and some other geographically large markets, airlines have built themselves up on the hub and spoke model, and that makes an awful lot of sense. But there are new types of aircraft such as the Airbus A220, the E2 jets, and some other aircraft that may allow airlines to profitably fly certain point to point routes. The 737 MAX when it starts to fly again has some pretty impressive long range legs as an airplane, the A321XLR also that can fly across the North Atlantic and some other routes. I think business travelers especially, but certainly some leisure travelers may value the opportunity to fly nonstop to where they are going, rather than having to connect once, even twice, and just become that much more exposed to other people along the way. So I hope that airlines are going to use this opportunity to rethink how they approach their businesses, from a network standpoint, from a technology standpoint, from a customer experience standpoint, fleet planning and more. The ones that do and do so wisely stand to benefit. And I think it will be quite good. You talked about the golden age of travel. When we did have a golden age up until a few months ago, we can have another golden age of air travel. It may not be Pan Am glory days like that, but it can be as golden financially and from a convenience and as you said democratization of travel, as we were enjoying up until the beginning of this year. It'll just take us a couple of years to get to that point again. Well, hopefully, sorry Richard yet another. Oh, just that I completely agree. You know, and as a matter of fact, I, you'd already had that trend in place, you know, more point to point routes, and the fleet plans that have been announced since the start of this crisis, you know, getting rid of the 80s, which was a sort of a back to the past concept of an aircraft or, you know, ah, fortress hubs, everyone wants to change planes in Frankfurt. That's the way it will always be, you know, just a grotesquely stupid idea. Those are the first to leave service to be replaced very often by the A321XLR. And I want to include in my travel porn. I want to buy an A321XLR from Washington DC to Venice. It seems a natural route to me and well within the capabilities of the jet. Well, I'm sitting in Columbia, Maryland, so I'm going to, I'm going to hold out for the Columbia, Maryland to Venice, point to point flight. Well, this really went by very quickly. I for one am heartbroken at the thought that we might become less connected as a result of all of this and welcome your your guarded optimism that the industry can figure out. And when I say the industry, I'm talking more broadly about technologists, maybe a lot of the people who are watching this. And certainly the wisdom of people like you who work alongside people in the aviation industry, because it's a really interesting challenge to figure out how we can continue the momentum of making travel more accessible to a larger portion of humanity in a way that will be sustainable for the environment and now also not, you know, impairing our health in a time of this coronavirus and other things that might come down the pike. So it's and while keeping the, you know, the industry sort of healthy while we figure out the transition is another sort of additional challenge. So I think it's it's a it's a it's a huge task and but I think it's one that's very important for all of us. There's been tremendous interest in all things aviation on. We've seen it on on future tense and elsewhere and I think we all have a, even though the majority of us are still nervous about getting on a plane anytime soon. We all feel like we have a vested interest in the industry figuring this out. So thank you Richard thank you Henry. Thank you to everybody who who watched us please continue to follow our future tense events you can follow us at future times now on Twitter, and we're doing socials like this one Tuesdays and Thursdays at four o'clock. So check your your local listings for those and thanks again and everybody stay safe and talk soon. Thanks. Thank you.