 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network It's because of mother nature, but we've actually got ourselves a pretty fun day of baseball and tap for today We've got game five between the Guardians and the Yankees game one between the Padres and the Phillies as well We're gonna break it down with Rob Friedman pitching Ninja getting his read on both those games and talking about the NLB NLCS in general and I'll get my first look at week number seven in the NFL This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim saw this I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm join here once again Bye Rob Friedman check out his work over on Twitter at pitching Ninja find him on MLB Peacock Fox Nesson wherever you can swim in baseball Rob is probably there and Rob Fun day of baseball on tap. How you doing today? I am doing well. I'm well rested. There is no yeah yesterday So I'm ready my fingers are ready. I was gonna ask you like you gotta rest those up get those all set I don't know what my stats are on one day's rest, but I think they're pretty good We're talking about that so I'm gonna talk about that that Yankees Guardians games It's a pretty fun setup for that one a lot of interesting dynamics at play Like I said, we'll talk about MLNFL week seven later on we'll talk about Recap last week as well But first let's start things off with game five Guardians at Yankees Nester Cortez starting on short rest here for the for the Yankees Aaron Savalli in line to start for the Guardians sounds like Shane Bieber probably we're probably gonna see him at some point For tonight. I want to ask you about the Guardians the second but first Nester Cortez on short rest He seemed like he changed his approach a bit in that first playoff game kind of reverting back to it seemed to me at least Some of the stuff he was doing earlier on this year when he was more effective What do you see in that first star from Cortez and what do you think that translates to tonight on short rest, you know I am for one. I'm not worried about him on on short rest as much as I would be about Bieber I think you know number one It's it's an elimination game like you got to bring your best and and adrenaline overcomes a lot of stuff You know, he's not a guy that relies on Velo. He relies on craftiness And so I kind of like that. I thought the the first game a lot of elevated cutters Which is an effective pitch for him that that cutters a is a nasty pitch not a lot of Messing with timing and stuff, which is you know, who knows maybe you'll do a little bit more of that Because stuff might be a tiny bit down on a little bit less rest But I'm not expecting it to have a big impact on him. He'll be good I think the other thing too with that is you're seeing a team for the second time in a couple of days Now I worry about this a lot when I'm betting in season where it's a pitchers second consecutive start against the exact same team I worry about that Do you think that with Cortez because he can change things up so much it better positions him to handle that kind of adverse Adverse situation that would be my instinct on it, you know I again, I don't have numbers to back it up But I do know that his variable arm slots as well as his just messing with timing in general and craftiness He's less predictable So I think you have a hard time like a cutter at a lower arm slaughter a curve ball at a lower arm slaughter Even a sinker or whatever it's gonna react differently than up here and he can do that He can make multiple pitches out of one pitch. So I kind of like that I expect to see him do that a little more and be a little craftier being at home, you know having to have an environment that Encourages that I think yeah fun for sure. So let's see Yankee side of things Let's talk about the Guardian side here because I gotta admit Rob I did bet the Guardians both last night and then when it reopened today With the reopened odds and part of the reason why I felt okay with betting the Guardians was because I think Arons of Valley is better than the results showed down the stretch So I think he'll be affected when he's out there But also having Shane Bieber waiting to fire that six sick bullpen behind them I feel like we're gonna see a low-scoring game and low-scoring games Tend to be a bit more chaotic. So if I can get plus 152 on the ink on the Guardians, which I can't right now If Andal sportsbook, I think that's a good situation But I want to ask you if you're Terry Francona, how are you handling this situation where you actually do have Pretty good options no matter what you want to do at your disposal To me Savalli is one of the most underrated pitchers Especially when you look at you look at his season stats and you're like the hell that Close But if you look at the last three months He's been really good and he had a 10k game mostly on curveballs I think they might have been all curveballs that game his curveball is one of the best curveballs in the major leagues And and the stats back that up So I wouldn't be like I wouldn't sleep on him and think that you're getting the guy with these Inflated stats. He's a competitor and has really good stuff I think they would like to not pitch Bieber if they can only because you know Bieber has been outstanding this year. No doubt, you know one of the top pitchers in the league He doesn't rely on Velo this year mostly because his Velo is down because of his shoulder Struggles and I don't think they want to encourage that like I think they he to me. He is a little bit more Somebody I would protect that doesn't mean he won't get in the game and it doesn't mean he doesn't want to get in the game I know he wants to get a freaking Garrett Cole said he would pitch on on, you know, basically Yeah, and you know what he will because he's a competitor He wants to win and I think it sends a message to the team sends a message to both teams if Bieber, you know Bieber absolutely is available. Will he pitch depends on the situation I think they're gonna ride Savalli for for as long as they can Hopefully bridge him to their bullpen. You're right. That's wet rested ton of great arms there and you top it off with Arguably the best closer in baseball. I would say Diaz is the best closer But class A is at worst one B and if you can get him I mean, maybe even two innings out of him and yet Karen check and you got Stefan I mean, they're they're loaded in their bullpen and you're right. It's a crap shoot. They could win Yeah, so Valley after he came back the first time from well, I guess the second time I don't hear a lot of injuries this year the first when he came back in August his curveball usage from then on 29.7% up from 27.5% overall that game against Detroit you referenced 43.9% I'm guessing if it's a must win situation They're probably gonna let that thing cook if it's if it's working and I feel like that's why I have some faith in him personally Yeah, I mean if you haven't watched him pitch this year that dude's curveball is it's pretty and it's a hammer Like it is a it is a high spin rate hammer and I would just keep going to it Like if that's working keep going to that You don't have the luxury of of saying let's wait it out and see what's gonna happen a sec second time through You're gonna go at it with your best pitches. You're gonna see a lot of curveballs is my guess Yeah, and hopefully I can that can lead the Guardians to victory because I need that ticket to cash So we'll see what the Guardians can do in this one Let's now talk about the NLDS or NLCS because we've got I keep saying NLDS I have a problem with that too. There's all these and now blah blah blah, right? There's too many things going on today We get the Phillies at the Padres for game number one is Zach Wheeler going up against you Darvish And we've seen both these guys twice in the playoffs. What have you seen? From them in the playoffs so far. Who do you think has the edge in this matchup for game one? Yeah, I mean they're both really really good pitchers for one and I've seen them at the top of their game Darvish, you know with all his weapons, it doesn't matter how many times you see him when a dude's got 12 different pitches He can mix it up. However, he wants to he also mess with timing every once in a while, too Like he's a crafty veteran that has throws hard too. Like he's been 95 97 Wheeler obviously has has great Velo sharp stuff. I thought he's looked really good I expected to be a low-scoring game you know, this is my type of pitching matchup where you have two top-tier pitchers aces going at each other and You know against two good lineups to these are quality teams I know everybody's looking at it going boy Shocker every you know, you have the Braves and the Dodgers out of it The Mets not there look at these teams and you can see like the rise of their bullpens at the end of the year I mean you have Alvarado who's been Just freakin lights out you have hater that's come back from the dead and now is as dominant hater again You know, these teams didn't get there by luck. They're good teams. So this should be a fun series I expect today to be a pitchers duel. I'm hoping it's a pitchers duel. I mean, I picked it to be a pitchers duel today I have Wheeler I think for for five K's and Darvish for six K's wouldn't be surprised to see Darvish get a little more than that But yeah, I mean I expected to be a pitchers duel, which means it probably won't be you know, I Hope so because I like these two guys a lot Darvish and Wheeler to my favorite pitchers to watch total in this game is seven runs right now under is Minus 122 so they are expecting a pitchers duel as well, but also like I get it I think that that is the way I lean here and it is not just the starters. You mentioned the bullpens, too I have like these horrible flashbacks of the Phillies. I had their money line in like May or June They're up like nine nothing and they lost and like I keep thinking about that But when you look at the data behind their bullpen now, it seems very different Who has the edge at the back end for this series? That is a super question because I agree with you 1,000% the Phillies knock has always been their bullpen. Yeah, and instead now I Arguably, it's a strength of theirs. I mean yeah moving efflin back there was useful But Sir Anthony Dominguez legit could close for a ton of teams I mean a hundred mile an hour of fastball Just nasty stuff and then Alvarado has his k-rate is through the roof And you know, it's tough like I don't know. I don't know who has the edge I would normally say the Padres Because the Padres have filth in their bullpen as well, but it's close. I mean, this is a close series I think I think it is to and that should means it should be a fun series as well I'm excited to sit back Just enjoy some baseball both with game five and with game one of the NLCS for today That is Rob Friedman check him out on Twitter at pitching ninja find his work at Fox MLB Peacock and Nessan Rob. Enjoy the baseball for today. Enjoy game five and game one Hopefully they you can rest up those fingers and be good on extended rest for today. Good luck. They're they're so ready I am ready Thank you, Rob. I'll talk to you again soon. Thank you Alrighty, that was Rob Freeman check him out on Twitter at pitching ninja once again check out his work at Fox MLB Peacock and Nessan will dive into NFL week number seven here in just one second But first don't forget to subscribe to the covering the spread podcast feed wherever you get your podcast We have a daily shows here every weekday. We have a Monday football previews We've got these Tuesday shows the first look college football on Wednesdays NFL Thursday And then a player prop show on Friday as well get all that by Describing to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast also you can find all these shows up on the Fandall YouTube page in full After the fact twisted tea and Fandall have joined forces to bring you a one-of-a-kind contest series That gives you a chance to compete for your share of thousands of dollars in psych credit Introduce a twisted tease college football picks a sports betting focused contest series That's entirely free to play the contest is simple each college football game will be assigned money lines spread at total markets With assigned points to each market All you have to do is make six selections based on those three markets and earn points for each correct selection you made If at the end of the day your score ranks among the best in the contest You'll be eligible for your share of psych credit at fandall.com Slash twisted tea picks and make your picks and remember, please drink Responsibly Let's take a look here week number seven in the NFL and as we've talked about a lot here recently I've running two separate models right now one of which is a traditional model the model use for betting That blends priors with 2022 data and then one that is just 2022 to kind of provide me a check of am I Reading things correctly, you know kind of a second check to make sure I've got the right read on games My traditional model one of these for betting has zero games showing at least two points of value for this week on the spread So it's a very efficient market there and the ones that are close The two to two points make me pretty uncomfortable from a spread perspective. So Last week and we'll talk about this in the recap. I had no spread bets the entire week I might wind up there once again instead. I'll be looking towards money lines and totals on the money line side of things I am showing at least two percentage points of value in five separate games One of them is Denver at minus 142 against the Jets I have been here at Denver plenty of times before and they bother the heck out of me Last night, I could not tell you how many times I got like anxiety looking at Denver Because I thought that I had a bet on them because I'm just so used to have being anxious for watching them And I did that was very nice to remember. Okay. You don't worry about this. This is fine That's one part of that's one part of why I'm hesitant to bet Denver at minus 142 The other one is that my 2022 only model which has no priors in it and does not view the Jets as being as trashy as Maybe the other one does it's actually showing value on the Jets at plus three. So I'm pretty torn on this I'm staying away. I think as of right now because I'm sick of rooting for Denver and sweating their games It's been not a fun experience. It is currently the biggest edge in my model for any game this week but again With the 2022 only model saying I don't know about that I in the overall sentiment that I've got around Denver I think I'm staying away if you want to go there at minus 142 my numbers say there's value But personally I have not made that bet and if I had to guess I don't think I will before Sunday either the second one showing value for me is a Seahawks at plus 250 against the Chargers There are still some sevens hanging out there from a spread perspective. So if you can get a seven I'd probably take that But I do like the money line at plus 250 as well I've got Seattle's win odds around 33% and the implied odds at plus 250 are 29% and The 33% win odds are in my traditional model the one that has a heavy prior on it and that prior Adores a chart because they were like a top five team for me preseason based on Expectations going in and they're frustrating The 2022 only model like Seattle even more and I think that's for obvious reasons the Chargers Get penalized there for how stupid they are in early downs like they are the most frustrating offense to watch of all time Like just a maddening offense based on the way they bottle up a freak isoid quarterback They refuse to let him show off those the skills so The 20 the the blended model that I like says Seattle money line the 2022 only model Says Seattle money line. So I will take the Seahawks money line at plus 250 I'm fully okay. If you want to go plus seven if you can get that as well I don't think we'll get back to seven most places shifted to six and a half at this point I don't think we'll get back to seven at any point. So I would take that now I personally I'm gonna go with the Seahawks money line plus 250 But plus seven also fully okay if you can get that at six and a half right now over at Fandle The final money line where I've got value is in the 49ers at plus 134 against the chiefs I've got their win odds at 46 percent versus 43 percent implied and my 2022 only model agrees with this one and thinking that There's value in the 49ers. I'm not betting this one right now because I want to see injury reports first The injuries on the defensive side for the 49ers are pretty big They missed a lot of guys last week Trent Williams is still out didn't play last week and Let's say I add in The Trent Williams injury if he sits again this week or add in some others I'm guessing it will shift the model to a point where The 49ers are no longer value because it's pretty thin right now above my threshold of where I'm willing to bet it If you take out some of those guys, they'll probably be either no value or slim enough value I wouldn't bet it. So I'm not taking this one the 49ers plus 134. I Will pass there. I'm also showing value on the Pittsburgh with Kenny Pittsburgh right now against Miami But that's pending Kenny picket stuff. So I'm probably not going to take that one either. They're showing value But I don't want the chance to be ruled out that secondary also had a lot of guys missing this past week didn't matter against Tom Brady for some reason, but I think it will against to a and Terry kill feel a lot all this week. So I am showing value on the 49ers and the Steelers I'm not betting it because I think once injuries are added more so those will no longer be values So holding off there So the only like spread or money line I have right now is Seattle plus 250 or plus 7 if you can get that And I'm probably gonna stand pat honestly I would need something to move pretty drastically to buy in somewhere else. So it's a pretty light weave me there There are two totals. I like this week. One is actually in that Seattle, Los Angeles game I want under 51 and a half at minus 106 both these defenses are not good. So that's concerning for sure, but I Just don't have the projected efficiency High enough in this game to justify a 51 and a half point total, which is the highest of the week I think it should probably be closer down to like 48 or so personally. I don't have a total model And I want to make that abundantly clear I'm betting this based off of projected efficiency and there are a lot more things that go into it than just that one number But Los Angeles lacks explosion on offense. That is better for unders than for overs I think Seattle could skew more towards the run this week than they have been they've actually been a pretty past-savvy team which is kind of like an FU to Russell Wilson it seems like but I Could see them being a bit more run heavy against Los Angeles than against other teams So I like under 51 and a half at minus 106 there The other I kind of like is Tennessee Indy over 42 and a half That's minus one tenant Fandle now This is a repeat divisional matchup and those tend to be lower scoring But based on research, I've done that tends to be more true when it involves a quarterback who is dependent on efficiency Matt Ryan and Ryan Tannehill in 2022 are not dependent on efficiency. They're not that great Neither these quarterbacks likely to be efficient Tennessee's defense just kind of stinks I think based on what my numbers are saying in the last week Potentially due to the Jonathan Taylor injury went super super past-savvy and they could revert back from that with if Taylor plays this week But I think they could do it again Just based on the fact that their offensive line is banged up and they might not be able to run the ball super effectively So I think the over here is the right way to go. So Three bets from me early on this week I got Seattle plus 250 or plus seven if you want to go with the spread think that's totally okay You can find that there I like that game to go under 51 and a half at minus 106 And I like the Titans Colts over 42 and a half at minus 110 And I think those will probably wind up being the full run out for me Barring player props later on this week barring some total movement and stuff like that I think that those three are probably likely my only three for this week So we'll talk more about week number seven on Thursday and our previous show and we'll break down College football as well for tomorrow, but first let's go back to last week and recap We had in last week's show on the college side of things We had Ben Stevens a sports grid on to preview week seven find Ben on the morning after on sports grid check him out on Twitter at Ben Scott Stevens He and Ed went head to head over Syracuse versus NC State and I mean both guys got something here Ed got the line movement And Ben got the win Ed had plus three and a half on NC State Ben laid the three and a half with Syracuse and this one closed the three So line did move in Ed's favor to get to three But Ben got the win NC State made it a four point game Pretty late in that game But Syracuse scored to go 17 to six and they held on and there to get the win 24 to 9 the final score there So Syracuse Getting a big win there now facing Clemson. We'll talk about that kingdom Sure tomorrow on the college football side of things and that did get the cover for Ben Ben also talked about checking out rushing props for mom mom ebery Moe Ibrahim And chase brown and Minnesota Illinois game Ibrahim 127 yards on just 15 carries in a loss and then brown had 180 so Nice little week for ben across the board there. He's a Syracuse alum So got to enjoy that gets to enjoy this week's game as well So check out Ben on Twitter at Ben Scott Stevens will talk to Ed about week number eight on tomorrow's show On the NFL side. I had a decent little week I finished three and two despite having five moneyline underdogs as my recorded picks of the show And I wasn't like seeking out Moneyline or underdog money lines because I don't want to seek out anything. I just want to go where the value is But that's just where the value was last week happened to be on a lot of dogs Those are the cheese at plus 130 commanders plus 104 seahawks plus 120 cowboys plus 190 Woof and the Patriots at plus 130 the past one we talked about Tuesday I said I was holding off until we got a better read on mac jones and He didn't mind a plane but as I dug in I realized that Bailey's api is actually playing pretty well Might not matter too much. I got that one a plus 130 It had gone to plus 122 at one point earlier in the week and I got a plus 130 after it sagged back a bit Believe it closed around 122 or so Got that one They did beat the Patriots the commanders and seahawks were the two ones we talked about on Tuesday so Those two from the Tuesday show wound up going Two and two there, but both those are plus one money commander Plus money the commanders over 104. We talked about them closed at minus 112 Seahawks, I think closed 122 So actually lengthened a bit after we discussed them no movement there But both those teams did win to get me the the profit there on Tuesday Cheesing Cowboys didn't the Cowboys one moved against me pretty badly So likely a bad read on my part bad results bad read not the best combination, but definitely does happen The chiefs won they had a shot to win that game late. I don't feel bad about that one. Honestly, it hung out I mentioned it plus 130. I think it was around 124 122 somewhere around closed. So The Cowboys one is bad, but I had a good week overall I'll definitely take it and feel good about the process and the results from week number six Tom Vecchio at DFS underscore Tom was on with me on Thursday and on Monday night talk about that Tom on Thursday had the Bengals at minus one and one and a half hit that one against the Saints He had the Vikings minus three and a half against the Dolphins hit that one as well The one missy at Thursday was the Jags money line at plus 112. They did get up early But couldn't hold things off just a rough couple of weeks here for the Jags and Interesting to see what they do this week against the Giants So two and one on Thursday for Tom and then last night Tom had two bets One was Justin Herbert over 35 and a half passing attempts at minus 108 And Mike Williams for any time touchdown at plus 125 Herbert had 57 attempts He almost doubled up his ball not quite that's an exaggeration But like he went pretty well over his passing attempt props that would hit pretty easily Mike Williams didn't do a whole lot great covers there from Patrick Sartan the second so One and one last night and three and two overall for Tom a good week for him checking out on twitter at DFS underscore Tom Any reminder we did talk about NBA opening night For tonight's two games on yesterday's show if you want to check out that portion of the show There is a timestamp forward in the episode description over on the covering the spread podcast feed and up on number fire.com Finally, we had JJ Zachary Snon To talk about props check out JJ on twitter at late round qb and check him out his work at late round dot com And the late round fantasy football podcast hit his touchdown prop last week That was Ramon Roy Stevenson at plus 105 at dk That was bad not a good number. Um, he should have been much shorter than that. So a good hit by JJ there Stevenson not only scored but also just went nuts in general. So good week there for him Zachary Yeah, that's a good Zachar. It's JJ had Zachar. It's over 48 and a half receiving yards Missed on James Robinson under 48 and a half Caleb Huntley under 26 and a half Robinson's role got worse. So I think the process there was good Huntley his role got better So a tough beat there as the Falcons kind of changed out their approach and had Huntley Featured a lot early on in that game In situations to monitor JJ talked about the declining roles of Leonard Fornette and Daven Cook And both those guys so the snap rates go up a lot in week six up a delve Still just 83 yards from scrimmage. So not super effect. The vikings didn't have the ball at all I guess that's the bigger part of it. So they never had the ball. So Cook could do a whole lot Lenny did very well But the cook one depends on what number you got him at The other one that we talked about was Devin singletary and tight scripts where JJ was saying, you know, the bills are in tight games They use singletary more keep them on the field more end No touchdown for singletary because that's not allowed in the bill's offense never allowed to score But uh singletary 85 yards rushing 22 receiving Likely hit on that one. So as always, uh, we're talking about these Situations to monitor before the numbers are actually up. So it depends on what number you got But I think the overall sentiment of buying into Devin singletary I think that probably worked out depends on the number with valve Lenny one did not work out But do we get the earths and the remandre ones from JJ? So overall, I think a pretty solid week for the show not like a banner week by any means but decent week across the board Profitable week for me both with NFL and NASCAR. So feeling pretty good as we had to week seven Unfortunately, not a lot of spots to take advantage. But either way, uh, still feeling pretty good about week number seven That is all that we have here for today on covering the spread as mentioned several times We'll have our college football preview up probably tomorrow afternoon Sometime I would guess with me and ed fang breaking down his read on week number eight talking about that big Syracuse Clemson game and much more. We'll have our NFL week seven preview The full preview coming up on thursday and the prop preview coming up on friday to get all those as they are live Make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast And if you like what you hear leave us a rating interview as well Big thank you to rob freedman check him out on twitter at pitching ninja and check out all of his work there on mlb fox Peacock and nessen. Thank you to rob as always. I am on twitter at gymsonus j i m S a n n e s you can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast big Thank you to everyone for tuning in for today. I hope that your week six went well for you We'll talk to you once again tomorrow talk about some college football This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network You