 This is covering the spread. Here are your hosts, Jim Sonnis and Dr. Ed Feng. What is going on everybody? Welcome on into covering the spread. That's right here on the FanDuel Podcast Network and numberfire.com where today we're getting you set for college football week number 11 by talking to Ben Brown of Pro Football Focus, getting his thoughts on this week's biggest games, The Heisman Market and much more. My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for numberfire.com. I'm joined here as always by Dr. Ed Feng. You can find his work over at thepowerrank.com. And Ed, I am rocking the Northwestern pullover for today because my mom was talking trash about Northwestern, talking about, hey, I should lay the 12 with Iowa, right? And hey, they covered. That's all that matters. So had to wear the Northwestern gear today to celebrate the big victory in not losing by more than 12 for Northwestern. Yeah, wasn't Iowa up 14-nothing in the first half? I mean, they were up the whole game. They were up the whole game, but I think they only got a field goal the second half. Yeah. And like, honestly, it kind of goes back to what you were talking about a couple of weeks ago where, you know, you want to regress towards, you know, program baselines at Northwestern's defense. They've suddenly remembered how to tackle, which has been encouraging. Yeah, it's good to tackle, a high tackle. Yeah, like it wasn't a pretty game, but like, you know, I got to take, when they're three and six, you got to take what you can get. The covering is enough for me to be happy. How are you doing this week? I'm doing pretty good. It was, I got distracted from Michigan against Indiana and watched LSU almost pull off a big upset at Alabama, but it was just kind of sad watching that LSU team. Yeah. I really couldn't do anything against an Alabama defense that's not really what they've been in the past. And so it was kind of sad. It was sad there, but it was also, I would say the word is frustrating to watch Alabama's offense because like, I don't know what, like they've had like this, basically every offensive line in the NFL is an Alabama person, but like, for whatever reason, they just couldn't do anything there. So you've got LSU where like, you know, there's a frustration you were talking or like the, you know, kind of sadness, but then Alabama was also frustrating. So like, it wasn't, even though it was like a good game, it wasn't an enjoyable game. Am I like, that's the impression that I got there at least. Yeah, I think Alabama's offense is going to be fine. Yeah. I'm not too worried about it. I wouldn't worry too much either, but just like that game individually, really weird. It was, I already am looking forward to a neutral side game against Georgia in the SEC championship game. That is going to be a good one. I don't think Georgia's defense is facing anything like what they're going to see in that game. So yeah, we'll see. Yeah, should be a fun one for sure. We're going to talk about a little bit about Alabama, talking about the Heisman and more with Ben Brown. You can find him on Twitter at PFF underscore Ben Brown. He is on the PFF betting podcast. You can find his work over at PFF as well. We're going to break down his college football betting process because this is the first time we've had that on. So good to dig in there and talk about his favorite bets for week number 11 across college football. So we have our NFL podcast coming up later on today, talking to my colleague, my other co-host, Brandon Gadoula, getting his thoughts on week number 10 in the NFL talking some player props there with regards to simulations, his process there, and getting his thoughts on week 10. To get that and to get every episode of Covering the Spread, make sure you are subscribed to Covering the Spread. Wherever you get your podcasts, we are at Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcast, you name it, you can find us there. While you're there, make sure you hit subscribe and also leave us a rating and review because that does help us out a bunch. Before we get to Ben though, gotta go back to last week and go through a nice week for our guest, Ben Stevens. Covering the past. You can find Ben Stevens on Twitter at Ben Scott Stevens. Make sure you check him out on sports grid and the morning after as well. And like I said, Ben did pretty well last week. He was on the under for Auburn versus Texas A&M. 49 and a half and it closed at 50. Didn't, it barely got halfway there. It was a 20 to three game. Bonix kinda rebecame Bonix. Auburn put up just three points. Texas A&M scored 20. So an easy hit there for Ben and Ed, I always remember, you know, I think back to like think of Rob Pizzola's tweets about how like unders give you like bad hearts basically because you're just constantly sweating. You never know if it's gonna win. This is one of those unders where you didn't have to sweat it too much, which was nice. Yeah, that was crazy. I mean, it was a 20 to three, right? Yeah. Yeah, didn't sweat that one that much. I mean, especially when the spread is, you know, when the margins pretty big into the fourth quarter and you're trying to run out the clock. Right. It's a good thing. And that's important to keep in mind with overs too, is you kind of want that competitive game to keep both sides pushing the whole way. Ben was on the under for Washington's team total against Oregon. That was a 20 and a half. Washington didn't come kind of close, I guess, because they scored 16, but it's an under regardless. But like 16 points might have been generous for how they played. They had seven first downs. They had 166 total yards. They fired a bunch of dudes, which is generally not a good sign after that. So it looked close on paper to get 16, given that total was in the low 20s. But then got that one, analysis was spot on. I feel like it was actually even less close than it looked for that one too. So a nice hit there for Ben as well. Then Spinal Bet was on the Wake Forest Moneyline at plus 114 against UNC. It closed right around there and it looked good for a long time. Wake was up 48 to 34 to start at the start of the fourth quarter, but then UNC's offense went just bananas. They were aided by some shorter fields for sure. UNC won at 58 to 55. So a two and one week for Ben, despite the loss there on the Wake Forest Moneyline, did you get to watch that UNC Wake game? Because I was kind of half fall. I was at the grocery store part of it, but like it was a fun game to follow. I only saw about the last couple minutes of the game. I didn't see Bill Connolly tweet something about, well, if Wake Forest was going to lose, this was going to be because of their defense. And they're a hundred and third in my adjusted success rate. That's bad, that's bad for a Power Five team. And that, you know, you've managed to, I guess it got to 8-0 with a really terrible defense. I mean, they gave up what, 60 points to Army or whatever it was. So, well, yeah, we'll see what happens going forward. It helps me when you can put up 72, but that's not always going to be the case. And it might be the case this week, because we'll talk about that. They're game with NC State with Ben in just a bit. So Ben Stevens goes two and one, some high standards there for Ben Brown for this week. Yours Ed was on Purdue plus three against Michigan State that one did come off a key number. I closed the two and a half. So an impactful move for you there. And Purdue played great. They got a lead in the first half. They were able to build on it in the second half. They didn't just like cover this one. I think that they outplayed them by decent amount as well. So a nice win for you there. Any final thoughts for you on the Purdue win for you? Believe in success rate. This is what Connelly's been telling me for years. I'm leaning more into it than ever this year. So yeah, I guess that's a good thing. No, that is a good thing. Absolutely. And a nice one there for sure. So you get the win there one and a week for you and a two and one week for Ben Stevens. And again, we'll see if Ben Brown can follow that up again. You can follow Ben on Twitter at pff underscore Ben Brown and check out the PFF betting podcast. We'll get to Ben in just one second. But first, Fandals giving you the chance to bet on week 10 of the NFL with a risk free same game, Parley, all you got to do. 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In Tennessee, call the red line at 1-800-89-9789. In West Virginia, 1-800-gambler.net or in Arizona, call 100 next step or text next step to 533-42. Covering the present. Let's bring Ben Brown into covering the spread to talk week 11 across college football and his overall college betting process. Ben, it is a pleasure to have you on the show today. How are you doing? I'm doing really well, guys. I appreciate you both having me on. Like I said, you know, off air. I definitely enjoy listening to the covering the spread every single week. So it's definitely a pleasure to be on chatting it up with you. I like to see the numbers and know people listen to it, but it's always weird to me if people say they listen to it. Like it's always kind of like a shock to me. So I'll definitely take that for sure. And I'm glad that you're a listener. We appreciate that for sure. I wanna ask you before we dive in though, how things gone for you this year? Because we're into November, we are well into both NFL and college season. How have things gone for you so far? Yeah, they have gone fairly well. Definitely better from an NFL perspective. For the most part, I have been, you know, trying to deviate a little bit from just betting, you know, the typical game spreads in total. So I have found myself in a lot of these ulterior markets. I have been heavily involved in player props previously, just starting to get rolling on some like college double player props. But I found a lot of it to be really interesting, especially from a model perspective. So it has been going fairly well for me so far to start 2021. Now, do you have your own player prop models? You mentioned, are you leaning on the PFS stuff for that? Or what are you using for as far as modeling goes? Yeah, so we do have, you know, the player props tool from pff.com. I also have kind of a similar setup structure for college football that I use quite a bit, you know, just getting involved with some of those markets. It is very similar model-based approach to what we use for our projections on our player props tool. A lot of the same inputs and stuff like that, we do use a lot of like the PFF grades and other fast things to kind of build out those models. But it's all done kind of on this top down approach, right? We're looking at the game spread and total modeling that initially and then kind of seeing how we expect the game narrative to kind of play out based on how we see that overall picture. So I like that approach quite a bit. I know a lot of people have other, you know, ideas and ways that they model things. But I think that's, you know, definitely the beauty of sports fighting in general. But that top-down stuff impacts everything. So I think that if you're going to be modeling it out, you kind of have to do it that way. Obviously, like if one thing goes one way, it does kind of, you know, alter a lot of stuff and that could lead you down a wrong path. But I think you kind of have to have that baseline because like you're going to project things very differently for a game with a 52 points total versus, you know, the Monday night game with a 39 and a half point total. Like that's going to alter things a lot. So I think that it's net, people may disagree but it is necessary if you want to have an overall view. Yeah, definitely. And I mean, I've tried a number of different approaches. That is definitely the best one that I've stumbled on. And it does help you kind of build, you know, your whole portfolio for how you kind of see that game playing out. I do think that is the approach that bookmakers use as well, just in the way that they release, you know, spreads and totals for the game. And then some other things start to kind of trickle in throughout the week. So, but I do think, you know, targeting those spots in those ulterior markets are the best way to be profitable right now. I know they used to kind of get a bad rap for being, you know, you couldn't get as much volume down in some of those markets, things like that. But I think that's kind of toward the wayside. If you spread out your action, I do think that you can get more than enough to make you feel comfortable on any one of those kind of types of bets throughout the week, basically. Excellent. So Ben, we asked you on to talk about college football and we'd love to know more about your process. What kind of things are you looking at? What data sources are you using? Give us a general idea about that. Yeah, definitely. So we definitely incorporate PFF, you know, grades at the facet level. And then we do try and do some adjustment for things like injuries and stuff like that. Obviously quarterback position, heavily influence, you know, our overall projections, but there are some things, you know, with injury situations and how that can impact, you know, like the past route grade that a team's gonna have from PFF's perspective. So we do fold all that in. We of course fold in some of the things, you know, like rest differentials, some nuances for like conference strength and things like that, especially with like the SEC at the college football level. So that's all included in our models. Then we do some, you know, other things. We do regress to the market, but we don't really use that in any sort of like baseline spot until we're, you know, already built our numbers for that particular game. So I do think, you know, it's worked out well. Our, what we would call like PFF Greenline has been up for both the NFL and college football in the 2021 season so far. If you betting, you know, with the Kelly criteria, it has been up significantly more than flat staking, but I do think it has shown, especially this season to be, you know, a profitable betting tool if people are interested and, you know, using that approach. And I do think using a model is gonna be the best way to have success in sports betting. And I've read mostly about this with regards to like, outrides for golf, regressing towards the market. Is that, are you applying in the same way? We're like, I think it was data golf wrote about how like, if you do, you know, simulated win odds and then put that in as X percent and then what the market says is Y percent. Is that kind of the way you're doing things here in terms of like factoring in the market? Yeah, definitely. And that is basically kind of how we are handling it. And then it also helps us if we are wrong about the market, but it also moves away from us. And we are kind of regressing in a more heavy fashion based on that calculation. Because we do, you know, we do respect the market. We do respect the market movement and using that information to kind of sharpen our models is just something that you, you almost have to do to kind of be successful and stay ahead of the market, right? So I think it's just, you know, an additional factor folded into our model that definitely helps the overall prediction process. For sure. So Ben, let's talk about college football in general and the Heisman voting, Heisman winner, something you can bet on. Royce Love, I was looking at the favorite at plus 170, but there's a couple guys at plus 700. Is there any, are you seeing any value in this market? Yeah, I see a really little bit. I think after Michigan State's lost to Purdue, I don't really think Walker is playable, especially at the third shortest odds. It just seems like a really far stretch for him to even make the four finalists. If, you know, if the Spartans don't play in that big 10 title game, I don't expect them to pull off the upset against Ohio State, Ohio State next week. So I think they will probably be, you know, close to two touchdown underdogs. And their style of play just doesn't really seem to, you know, gravitate toward that big sort of upset outlook. So I think he's probably gonna fade off a little bit. And I do think that probably opens up value for that next tier below him. Matt Carell, I think depends heavily on their matchup this weekend against Texas A&M there, two and a half point dogs. He obviously got banged up in their, you know, loss against Auburn. Maybe he can make up some ground after that fact. He was probably, you know, the front runner early in the season before that last Auburn. So maybe he's playable, but I'm looking more toward a guy like Caleb Williams. He's PFF's highest graded college quarterback. So far in 2021, he does have, you know, the added element with his legs that is so effective, especially at the college football level, eight explosive Russian plays so far this season. He's forced to miss tackle on 50% of his Russian attempts. So I think from that perspective, given where Oklahoma is right now, you know, we looked at like the college football playoff committee as some of the eighth of the world team. I don't think they're gonna end up finishing there. So I do think the books are probably giving us a little bit of break on both their national championship odds and Caleb Williams probably win the Heisman. So I plus 700, 12.5% break even percentage. I can definitely see maybe a little bit of a sprinkle on him, but I'm not, I'm not like unit-sized benning it or anything like that. I just think it's a, you know, a fun little play that I do think could probably get home here. Now you mentioned the PFF grade for Caleb Williams. And I think that's one thing that's unique about PFF is that like for college football, there are so many teams and so many players, it's hard to like have a legit like player-based model because like we all have time constraints unless we're like just betting one conference. Do you feel like that gives you a kind of unique position to be in where you have that player level data as far as betting college football? Yeah, I do definitely think it does help. I think definitely helps strengthen our green line model, but just understanding both how well he is performing and then what his loss is actually gonna be and what it should be against the spread. Against the spread I think are two main things that we can do a lot better than any sort of publicly available data. And of course, you know, it's not me going in great in every single one of these players a lot. We have a lot of analysts trained and you know, to be without bias and give accurate assessment of how these players actually perform. So actually using those in the model we found to be quite effective. And I do think it gives PFF in general just a leg up on, you know, a lot of the other publicly available information. I know other people kind of try and build some of those player level grades but I still think that's folding in some of the stats, EPA based things that we aren't necessarily taking into account when we're just doing it based on PFF grading. I know there are a lot of people who use PFF grades in their NFL models too. Yep, yep, yep. I think, yeah, I do know that some of the, you know the bigger, especially public facing betters do fold in some PFF level stuff into their NFL equation. So it's definitely being utilized. We have done the majority of work for you already with PFF Greenline, if you wanna check that out but I do think, you know, it's interesting and you can even get a lot of that data if you have a PFF Elite subscription. So if you wanna do some of the modeling yourself take a slightly different approach we definitely are open to kind of, you know allowing people to get that sort of information and data for their own betting purposes. No, absolutely. I mean, I use PFF NFL cover grades a lot. And it's important part of my analysis because even if I'm watching a game I can't even actually see what the coverage is like on most plays, right? So you really need someone else to do that. And then the other thing, not that I wanna go on a commercial about your company but I will anyways, like I'm actually finding some of the data files to be incredibly useful. So, you know, there's one data file you can just download that has all past coverage stats for every player in the NFL. And that is, I haven't even started completely using that but you can kind of do this, you know we talk about yards per route for receivers but you can actually do that for cover guys now too, which is pretty cool. Yeah, I mean, I definitely appreciate that. We are trying to, you know allow the data sources to be used by people but yeah, it's time is a big thing, right? So it's like, I'm not doing all the grading or any things, but I use the data of course and it's, you know, available for everyone else too. So, absolutely. And I use the data heavily for the NFL draft stuff last year like it's been a help, I can guarantee that and vouch for its effectiveness as well. Let's talk about some games you're starting off with the Big 10 Michigan at Penn State. This is a pick them right now, a minus one 10 on both sides and the money line total is 48 and a half. And Penn State is tough because they had a dip, Sean Clifford has banged up. Seems like he might be a bit healthier right now. So for you, Ben, are you down playing what Penn State did in October be due to Clifford's health or do you think that it's worthwhile to fold that in and maybe be skeptical what we see in the past couple of games? Yeah, I mean, I honestly think it's a little bit baked into the betting market already. Like I think there's almost this expectation that they would have won against Iowa if Sean Clifford stays in the game. I actually do think that's accurate. You know, the marathon against Illinois as well. I definitely think his injury impacted him in that performance, but they looked, you know, decently well against Ohio State. I think they played better than expected, definitely covered. I think from that perspective, I think their lull is almost overbaked into the market a little bit and people might have them almost a little bit higher in their power rankings because there's an obvious reason for why they didn't play really well, right? So I think maybe fading that a little bit is the correct approach in this matchup. I lean toward Michigan a little bit. I do think Kade McNamara is probably, I don't know, I guess, if he's a better quarterback. I think based on PFF grade, it's basically Sean Clifford and him are kind of right next to each other. Michigan has the better Russian attack. I do think Penn State has the better players on the outside, both in coverage and at the wide receiver position. So if they win outside, that's going to be how Penn State wins this game. But I think Michigan has the strength against the defense line specifically with the pass rush. So I think they're going to be able to force enough pressure on Sean Clifford to make him uncomfortable and saying that. I think they're going to cover and it's going to be a little late. Hopefully they win by a field goal. So that's kind of how I see this game plan. I'm interested to hear your thoughts on how you expect this Michigan Penn State game to go. Yeah, I'm completely biased about this, obviously living here in Ann Arbor. And I consider like Michigan is the one team I will root for that I actually have to treat as my job to kind of cover them and try in some way to look at it from an unbiased perspective, which is clearly impossible. I did that in Michigan plus one and a half at Fandall. I don't particularly like it, but I think that's some of my bias going in. I don't, I mean, has the road team won in the series? I guess Penn State won last year, but in normal circumstances, things have not gone well in Happy Valley. I mean, they came pretty close when Shay Patterson was a quarterback and had some fluky things go on. But I did like the bet, my numbers liked it. I knew, I think the market is moving that way. I think it will continue to move that way as well. So, and since you agree, Ben, I'm just going with it there. And you and the rest of the market, if they agree with me, I'm gonna, I'm just gonna be happy with what I got. Oh, and actually what I think is interesting is what you mentioned about the quarterbacks. Like I actually hadn't thought about comparing McNamara and Clifford, but I think at this point, yeah, they're about the same, right? Right? Like I don't think Clifford is that great. He kind of got off to a pretty good start this year, heading into that Iowa game. And then the numbers from the Illinois game just kind of have destroyed Penn State's passing numbers. Right, right. And you know, McNamara's got a ceiling. So I don't think he's gonna lead Michigan to where they want to be without some kind of good fortune this season. So yeah, I mean, they're fine quarterbacks, but I don't think either of them really can carry a program. Yeah, I think that it makes sense. And it's an interesting game here for sure. Ben, you said that you think Michigan can pull this game out late. Do you have enough conviction in that to take the money line at minus 110, or is it a stay away efficient market for you? I actually, I am gonna get a little bit on Michigan's money line for sure at minus 110. I did miss, you know, a better number like Ed said, but I think it's the spot that I'm definitely gonna be playing. Probably also monitoring a little bit in game. If Michigan gets down a little bit early, I do expect to hopefully load up on, you know, plus three and a half or something like that across a key number as well. Is live betting a key part of your process, or are you more so locking stuff in before the game? I actually am making it much more a part of my process. So I do think, you know, waiting and having that understanding of key numbers is one of the best ways to kind of learn more about sports betting in general, you know, watching the game, having a second screen up where you're kind of following along with that spread and total and understanding, you know, what plays are swinging the spread and total in certain directions, I think is a really good way to understand how the market is priced in certain situations. And I think, you know, it is a really difficult problem to solve. The only models that are really available are at books and sports books right now, right? There's no publicly facing live betting model that's gonna really give you enough information to probably beat the spread or total. So I think if you don't have a sports betting model, that is the best area to attack. And I think right now, especially it's probably the least efficient market that you can find from a sports betting perspective. Just wish there wasn't the like 40 second delay. That would make things a lot easier. Life would be a lot easier then. Seeing like players running the field, like we have the next gen stats tracking, I'm like, huh, why is the long snapper on the field? That's kind of weird. They're on the 30 yard line, something happened. Definitely a factor for me. Let's move now to Oklahoma at Baylor. Oklahoma here, five and a half point favorite. Total is 62 and a half. We talked about Caleb Williams before and how PFF is liking what they're seeing so far. So we've seen a good sample of Oklahoma with Caleb Williams. What is their ceiling to you with Williams instilled now as a quarterback? Yeah, I mean, so they're second overall in EPA per play. The number one team if you include only Power Five schools. So I would say, you know, that's pretty close to their ceiling, right? Second or third best offense in college football right now. I think, you know, maybe Alabama outside of that, I do think it's Oklahoma, right? And I think they have, you know, a lot of the pieces in place to be a top two or three offense at the college football level. And that's something that, you know, PFF in general, we not necessarily overvalue offense, but we definitely lean heavily in that direction. So it's just a spot where we're gonna like and get on board with. And I think, you know, I think they are, you know, dark horse, college football playoff contenders right now. I think with the break that, you know, the college football playoff committee is giving us with 8th of Raw, they are definitely my selection right now, given their odds. Yeah, they are minus 174 to make the college football playoff right now over at Fandle Sportsbook. So clearly Fandle is doing things similarly where they think, you know, they've got a good road here. That seems pretty short. That's an indictment of the conference. Right, right. That's not like lifting up Oklahoma. That's an indictment of the conference. It feels like that number is pretty short. Is that still long enough where you consider betting it or is this properly accounted for the stuff you just did? I think that's actually pretty confidently accounting for where we are at. We have Oklahoma at 71% to make the college football playoff. So I think it's, you know, relatively close, but I'd probably still stay away. I'd probably feel better about, you know, betting them on the spread, especially if they get to the college football playoff. Ben, I didn't want to ask you. I mean, we talked about Kayla Williams and the Heisman part of the show. You know, he hasn't played a significant fraction of the season. So I don't know, can a guy win the Heisman playing half the year, you know, six games, seven games? I mean, what is he going to have by the time they're voting? Yeah, he will have, what is it? He's played seven, so it'll be up to 10 basically. Oh, he'll have 10, okay, that's... Yeah, so, and that's the really tricky thing about modeling, you know, like the Heisman trophy MVP is there's so much human bias baked in, right? There's so many things where we don't necessarily know how, you know, like the committee and everyone else is going to even handle it this year. You can fold in some prior year history, but it seems like every year is kind of its own unique outcome. So it is difficult to kind of model it from that perspective, and that is a very good point to be maybe more hesitant about his chances in general. And I think it's a unique year, similar to last year too, honestly, where like you saw our wide receiver win. And like that's kind of strange, but like because it's pretty wide open, you get more leeway, I would guess, in terms of having a guy who starts 10 games, whatever it may be, in getting them over that hump, especially if they continue to do what they've done. I know that Kansas game is still kind of weird, but like they started to actually get some like convincing wins. So what do you see with this game, Ben? Five and a half point spread, 62 and a half point total. Are you seeing any value there? What's your read on this game? I don't have a ton of value on the spread. It's tough. I would probably lean a little bit toward Oklahoma. I don't really show quite enough value to basically bet it, so I'm not gonna say or recommend that play. I don't mind the under, but I think it's more of a spot where you could look at playing like Baylor's under team total. I think it's probably gonna, once they release that market, 13 and a half, 14 in the first half, right around 28 in the second half, that would be the spot that I'd probably target in this game. I just think Baylor's hoping to keep this game low scoring if they are successful defensively doing that. It's gonna be a little bit more choppy than what we probably project. So we'll see, we obviously have Oklahoma's defense. That's okay, basically. I think they have a really good pass rush unit. Their coverage unit has been, one of the worst coverage units in the college football so far, but I think if they can get enough pressure on Jerry Bohannon, this game is probably gonna finish well short of that 62 and a half point total. Right, and that's a huge disappointment for an Oklahoma defense that brought a ton of guys back, right? And I remember talking to Phil Steele this preseason, talking about how he loved the talent coming back on that unit. Right, yeah, I mean, it's been, yeah, they're 83rd in the country and our opponent, Justice Coverage Grade. So they've been heavily maintained by that pass rush unit. We have the pass rush unit as a top five unit, Nick Bonito, 37 pressure so far this year. I think that's ninth among players in the Power Five Conference. So he has the sixth best pass rush grade, but if they're not successful getting home against Baylor offense that is pretty good at pass blocking. That's, it's gonna be a long game for Oklahoma. So we'll see if, I think that's kind of the matchup that Oklahoma needs to win in order to cover the five and a half points spread and I'm not overly confident that they're gonna be able to do it. Okay, so efficient lines there. Let's move now to NC State at Wake Forest. Wake Forest here, two and a half points favorite in the total is 66 and a half and a really fun matchup here with Wake Forest offense versus NC State's defense. They both in playing pretty well. So who do you see holding the edge here for Wake Forest's offense versus NC State's defense? Yeah, definitely. And I agree with you, right? NC State's second best defense in the ACC according to what we're looking at. You know, Cheyenne battle has really founded in his junior season, PFF coverage grade of 78 ranks 24th among Power Five cornerbacks. You know, and Tyler Baker Williams as well kind of right along similar with that. Are they able to slow down AT Perry? Jakari Robertson, it's a tough one to model. I don't actually have a huge lean on the spreader total in this game. I am intrigued by it quite a bit. I have had some NC State unders previously in the season hasn't worked out too well for me. So if I was leaning in one direction I would go for Wake Forest just based on how efficient Sam Hartman has been offensively, how good their pass throughout unit or the wide receiver unit is. And I just don't know if, you know, Devon Leary in that NC State offense is going to be able to keep pace. But I think I think it could be a little bit of a struggle to start, definitely, like you said, NC State. Defensively, it's looking like one of the better units in the country. So we'll see it is it is definitely an intriguing matchup. But I unfortunately don't really have a strong lean on any one of the game spreads or totals. Now you mentioned that PFF does skew towards offense, which you should because defense is less sticking stuff like that. Does that alter the way you view these matchups, where it is an outlier offense facing an outlier defense? Are you more skeptical of when it may show value in the powerful offense in that spot? Or do you have trust that, you know, the numbers are properly accounting for the variance and defense and better anyway? Yeah, I usually I would lean toward the ladder. I do have, you know, more confidence that the numbers are taking into account to correct things from both the offense and defense aside. I would lean more toward, you know, a more efficient offense winning and dictated against a really strong defense that doesn't play out in every single scenario. But I think it has, you know, enough historically based on our modeling to probably be the correct approach going forward. Yep, I think that's a proper way to view things there. Okay, so we got a whole lot of games on the board this week, Ben. Any place else you are seeing value for week number 11? Yeah, definitely. I like Miami minus 2.5, taking on Florida State rivalry game could get kind of crazy. I've liked what Tyler Van Dyke has put forth three solid PFF passing great performances. He is a little bit of that high variance quarterback, but I think him, Charleston Rambo, I think they're gonna do enough for Miami to win by at least a field goal, if not more. So I definitely like that one, a little more, you know, down and dirty, way down the barrel plays. I do like Old Dominion plus 220. It's a really low total of 47.5 points against Florida Atlantic, sitting right below that key number seven that we're kind of looking for. So I do think it's a spot where me personally, I'm trying to get more comfortable kind of betting some of those higher up money lines, especially in these really low total games. So I do like Old Dominion, Nikozy Perry, I do think he's gonna be able to get it done enough times, I guess they're gonna be able to slow down Nikozy Perry enough times to potentially win this game outright. So I like that one quite a bit. And then last one, I was on Air Force quite a bit last week against Army, kind of a sloppy game, didn't quite get home, but I am going back to the well with this when I do like them, minus two and a half against Colorado State. Obviously they, you know, have 85% or so rushed percentage based on their overall offensive plays. I just think they're gonna be able to probably move the ball well, and I think this could be a little bit of a blow for Air Force. So I like those three games quite a bit here. I think the money lines in low total games makes sense because it's just more variants. And like you're letting yourself up for more volatility, plus two twenties is a good number there. So I think that does make sense. That is Ben Brown. Make sure to check him out on Twitter at PFF underscore Ben Brown and check out the PFF betting podcast as well. Ben, we appreciate the time. Good luck to you this week both with college football and the NFL. And hopefully we can get you on here once again soon. Yeah, thank you guys so much. Covering the future. Big thank you once again to Ben Brown for swinging by and breaking down his thoughts on week 11 across college football. Find Ben on Twitter at PFF underscore Ben Brown and check out the PFF betting podcast. Ed, we touched on one of the big games in the big 10 this week that's Michigan at Penn State. Other one is Ohio State versus Purdue. What are you seeing in this game? Yeah, you know, it was interesting. So last week for my free email newsletter, which you can sign up for at thepowerinc.com, I talked about Ohio State in Nebraska. I talked about how I liked over 63 and a half. And the markets closed at 67 and a half. Like it kind of fluttered around 63, 64. Got away all, so despite four points of closing line value, you know, the game went under Ohio State's seem somewhat lackluster in a nine point win at Nebraska. But despite the loss, I mean, I still see value in Ohio State as an over team. The offense ranks third in the nation in my justice success rate. And here's the most remarkable thing about the offense, right? We know Garrett Wilson, we know Crystal Lave, they're considered NFL draft picks. The leading receiver is actually Jackson Smith-Najiba. He's actually the leader in both yards and yards per route. And he had a mind boggling 240 yards on 15 receptions against Nebraska. So the offense is good. There are three weapons that CJ Stroud can go to. I still, you know, they didn't have the best game at Nebraska, but I think they'll have a good game here. As I talked about last week, Purdue's defense is pretty solid. They ranked 16th in my adjusted success rate. But I do think Ohio State's a more talented team. And I think that does matter. And in the horseshoe, I think Ohio State is gonna score some points. On defense, you know, Ohio State's defense is not great. And they particularly struggle against the pass. They're 50th when I look at adjusted passing success rate. And Purdue wide receiver David Bell has had average 3.5 yards per route. Aiden O'Connell has been pretty good. And I expect Purdue to get some points as well. So my model predicts 68.5 points around there. I think that's a little bit high, but I do think there is value in over 61.5. So that is what I like for this week. You were talking about the receivers for Ohio State. Ryan McChrystal was tweeting about them today. Happened to notice that when you were earlier on, he was saying that might have to compare them to the Alabama guys like Jerry Judy, you know, Devontae Smith, Henry Ruggs, when they had that trio. Also they had Joan Waddle of the time. Like when they had those three guys, because Wilson and Ola, they are getting like first round NFL draft buzz. But as you mentioned, like it's not just them. So that's tough when you got to shut down three legit guys and you got a good quarterback slinging it too. Right. Well, then you have Trayvon Henderson breaking off big runs too. So yeah, I mean, that offense is really good, which is a problem for Michigan, but talk about that. We talked about them with Ryan, I think like pretty early on, it was, I think it might have been after the Oregon loss potentially. And he was talking about how like, he thought they might go pretty nuts in the second half. We've seen that so far. So we'll see what Ohio State can do against Purdue for this week. Again, the total 61 and a half over at Fandall Sports Book right now. For mine on the NFL side, I want to go with an opposite approach what I've had recently. I've had a couple of times where I've gotten burned by taking the points on big numbers. One of them I still feel like I stubbornly should have won, but you know, whatever. Anyway, we're going to lay the points this week. That's what the Cardinals against the Panthers at minus 10 and a half. And a lot of this comes down to injuries. The Panthers are likely to start PJ Walker quarterback with Sam Darnall being banged up. And we've gotten to see Walker a bit in the NFL. And I actually do think he would be a downgrade even with how bad Darnall has been this year. Walker had negative point two eight passing net expected points per dropback on his 60 dropbacks last year. Got a full start in there. Had some relief of Teddy Bridgewater as well. So negative point two eight there. This year he's at negative point six six. He has completed three of 15 passes, which is not ideal. I'm going to give him leeway on this year because those were all in relief, didn't get to start didn't get the first team reps. But seeing him struggle last year too when he did get a start did get those first team reps. That's more concerning. The two years combined with the car with the Panthers, Walker's at negative point three six passing that expected points per dropback. Whereas Darnold is at negative point oh six. So Darnold real bad PJ Walker has been even worse but it's not just that. It's also that they've lost their starting center and they're starting to have tackled the injuries. They're both on IR right now. So you're giving me a backup quarterback, backup center, backup left tackle, not ideal. And the Cardinals, Kyler Murray is not guaranteed to go like reading the words from Cliff Kingsbury. There's still a chance that he can't go this week. It sounded like he was close last week. So I'm fine like kind of operating under the assumption that he will go, but if he doesn't like Colt McCoy got the job done last week, didn't have Deandre Hopkins there might have him this time around. So right now my numbers have the Cardinals here by 14. If I put in a downgrade assuming that Kyler sits it does go down to nine points seven. So that'd be assuming that there's a 0% chance Kyler plays or recording on Wednesday. I think there is more than a 0% chance. So I think that that's pretty fair. And that's without making an adjustment for Donald the PJ Walker because my numbers already view this offense as being trash. So it's hard to make trash, trashier and justify it when we're usually looking at regression towards the mean. You know, I think it's fair to leave them where they're at. So I think even here with some things left undecided I am good laying the 10 and a half and riding with the Cardinals for this week. Ed, what are your numbers saying here? Panthers versus Cardinals? Yeah, I mean, I have Arizona by about eight and a half. It's interesting with the quarterback adjustments because I've been thinking about this in terms of other games. The markets made a pretty big adjustment for Mike White before that Cincinnati game. I forget what the margin is, but they said the Jets were significantly worse. He went out and played really well. And then it's been two weeks in a row that New Orleans hasn't had James Winston, Trevor Simeon started, and with zero adjustments my number has been right on the market. So it doesn't really make sense to me, but that's what the market's saying right now. I mean, it seems like there should be a drop off from James to Trevor Simeon. No, it didn't. That's Trevor's best quarterback in football, Ed. What do you say? Northwestern grad Trevor Simeon is the best quarterback in football. No bias. No bias at all. So yeah, I don't know. Yeah, Donald's been bad. I mean, maybe that's similar to Zach Wilson going to the back up there. He started every game, right? Yes, he's left early twice. No, three times. Sorry. And is he? Is he definitely out of the shoulder? Yeah, I'm pretty sure there's no way he's playing. Correct. OK, the market moved to half point. It was 10 and it came off a key number of 10. So like maybe that half point's worth more, but it did move a bit with the Darnold shoulder news. But either way, I think that this one is favorable towards the Cardinals regardless. So I think that's 10 and a half a very fair number that I'm willing to lay with them for right now. We'll talk more NFL with Brandon Gadoula later on today in our second episode of Covering the Spread, both on this Wednesday. So make sure you are subscribed to get that to Covering the Spread wherever you get your podcast. Also, once again, a big thank you to Ben Brown for swinging by, breaking down his thoughts on college football, betting, the Heisman, and more. Find Ben on Twitter at PFF underscore Ben Brown and check out the PFF betting podcast as well. Ed, what is going on for you this week over at the Powering? I had Tony Miller, who's the director of the Sportsbook of the Golden Nugget on the football analytics show. As with all bookmakers, it was an excellent conversation, really interested in his process and how he makes numbers, how he adjusts to the market, how he is sometimes off market. And we talked about two NFL games and in which that was the case. Tony's kind of old school, so that was pretty interesting as well. And yeah, so check that out wherever you get podcasts, the football analytics show. And then I'm writing my email newsletter. You can get that at thepowerank.com. And then I also started posting college basketball predictions for members this week. So if that's something you're interested in, you can check that out at thepowerank.net so you can learn more about becoming a member. So thepowerank.net for the college basketball stuff, thepowerank.com to sign up for the email newsletter and find Ed on Twitter at thepowerank. I am at Jim Sonnis, J-I-M-S-A-N-N-E-S. You can also follow the FanDuel Podcast Network at FanDuel Podcast. Big thank you to everyone for tuning in for today. We'll talk to you once again later on to get you set for NFL week number 10. This has been covering the spread right here on the FanDuel Podcast Network. What's up guys, this is Jordan Spieth. If you're watching this video, please like and subscribe to the FanDuel YouTube channel.