 Welcome to another International Relations capsule for the Shankar AAS Academy. Today, our topic is India-Pakistan back-channel diplomacy. There have been some signs in the last few weeks, in fact months, that some kind of discussions were taking place between India and Pakistan, or with the objective of resolving the present ombuds. The first sign came when Mr. Mohit Yusuf, the special assistant to the Prime Minister of Pakistan on national security and policy planning, said in October 2020 that Pakistan had received a message from India that India had decided to have a dialogue with Pakistan. He did not say where the message came from. He did not say what the response was, but a simple statement that India had sent a message nor level was indicated. Then, though unconnected, when the Prime Minister of Pakistan, Mr. Imran Khan, visited Sri Lanka, he sought permission for him to fly over India after several occasions when Prime Minister of India was not allowed to fly over Pakistan. But India very quickly gave permission and this looked like an unreciprocated goodwill. Then, we heard a little more formal news that the Director General of Military Operations of India and Pakistan had issued a formal statement saying that India and Pakistan will now observe the ceasefire established in 2003. Of course, 2003 was a long time ago and all these years, there have been very many violations of the ceasefire and in fact, we came to the point of conflict on different occasions. But out of the blue, the Director General of Military Operations announced that from now on, ceasefire will be observed strictly. It was meant to be a decision of the local commanders, but the way it was worded dealing about fundamental issues between India and Pakistan gave the hint that this was something more than meets the eye. But still, many people believe that this was a routine announcement and there was nothing more to it. Then, but unexpectedly, the Pakistan Army Chief, General Kamar Bajwa made a statement regarding India-Pakistan relations as the head of the Pakistan Army. He suggested that the long-standing issue of Jammu and Kashmir should be resolved in a dignified and peaceful manner in accordance with the wishes of the people of Jammu and Kashmir. This is nothing unusual, even though he did not mention the UN resolutions, he did mention the wishes of the people of Kashmir as a factor in resolving the Kashmir issue. But the fact that it came from the Chief of the Army appeared significant. He also said that Pakistan would not interfere in the internal affairs of states and urge India to forget the past and create a conducive atmosphere for peace. So, he still put the honours on India to create that conducive situation, atmosphere for peace. But at the same time, he suggested that the past differences should be resolved in some way. He even mentioned that there are enormous benefits for India and Pakistan to cooperate and this will bring about a lot of benefits to both India and Pakistan in terms of the general economic situation, the pandemic situation analysis. This made everybody stand up, sit up and say that something fundamental is happening, some kind of dialogue is taking place and this dialogue is leading to some of these straws in the wind. Then the Indus Water Treaty talks which were postponed again and again in the last few years was held. Then sports visas were given to Pakistan, Pakistani athletes and also Indian athletes and also a lack of any strong words used by the Prime Minister or the opposition during the election campaign. You remember that the last general elections, the India-Pakistan issue became at most in the minds of the people and many people believe that the success of Prime Minister Modi in the general elections depended much on the way he handled the situation on the border, Pulwama and Balakot and so on. But surprisingly though it was a very heated campaign that was happening in several parts of India, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, West Bengal, no mention was made of foreign policy and certainly nothing about India-Pakistan. This may be because the internal issues were so important, but this also seemed a little bit strange in the present situation and we must also remember that this was the time when India and China were engaged in very difficult negotiations for the disengagement of the troops in Ladakh because as you know we have completed the first part and the second part is actively being considered. So considering all this many commentators felt that something new is happening, something is brewing and some good may come out of this. But there are others who said that there was nothing much in this, these are just housekeeping or accidental or incidental developments and this is because neither Pakistan nor India confirmed any consultations leading to these developments and therefore whispers began that some back channel diplomacy was taking place somewhere to normalize relations. We should remember here that this is not the first time we hear about back channel diplomacy between India and Pakistan. Many occasions in the past when official discussions were not possible and dialogue was not possible, both India and Pakistan had used individuals, experts to hold consultations behind the curtain and try to see whether there were some solutions which could be produced out of the box because once the talks begin officially between the two dedications there is a tendency to go back to the old positions or at least we have to start with that. On the Pakistani side of course it is the four issues Kashmir, they are only supporting the freedom struggle in German Kashmir and everything depends on the future of German Kashmir and till then peace is not possible and the Indian side would have to start by saying that German Kashmir is an integral part of India and there is no question of any concession on that and also the Indian position which has been reiterated after the second term of Prime Minister Modi that peace and war cannot take place at the same time. In other words we consider terrorist activities as war and how can there be peace talks or dialogue when this is going on. So Mr. Modi said very clearly even though this was a policy even Dr. Mahan said that but whenever an opportunity arose India was willing to go more than halfway to start a dialogue and also many many situations arose when the private people were used for the few formal diplomats some politicians etc. So the advantage of doing this is that they don't have to repeat the official position. Both sides know what the situation is and the effort is to break out of it and see whether we can find solutions to these without involving the governments themselves this is often referred to as track to diplomacy. So with all these little events it became almost clear that there was there were consultations taking place at some level at some place. But now the foreign minister of Russia Mr. Sergey Lavrov was in India and he met our foreign minister and others and he went to Islamabad but he spent a longer time in Islamabad than in India. And at a press conference he almost let the cat out of the diplomatic bag as it were when he said that Russia appreciated much the recent efforts of India and Pakistan to normalize the relations. So this is a very concrete indication that this is taking place but even then India has not confirmed it. When Indian spokesmen were asked whether there were any such communications or dialogue he simply said that we have missions in both countries. There is an Indian high commission in Islamabad and there is a Pakistani high commission in New Delhi and the communications channels are open and there is no reason why any other method should be used to deal with it. And this India has remained steadfast in this public position but after Mr. Lavrov's statement nobody believes that this is true. The reason for it is naturally is India's reluctance to accept that there is a dialogue unless we have concrete evidence that Pakistan is willing to cut down and eliminate terrorism. Then came more reports. It was suggested that these back channel negotiations are being held on the Indian side by our national security advisor Ajit Doval and the Pakistan Army Chief General Bajwa. And the reports were that they have been meeting off and on in third countries maybe neighboring countries and United Arab Emirates was mentioned as one of the countries involved. And there again no confirmation, in fact basically denial from the two countries. The former ambassador of India Mr. Satin Barlamba who was engaged in back channel diplomacy during the time of Dr. Manmohan Singh not only suggested in an interview, he not only suggested that back channel diplomacy was desirable but also said that Mr. Doval and General Bajwa would be rights people to engage. It would be idea. Reports were also heard that the high commissioners who were withdrawn some time ago because of the crisis would be back in their places but new exchange of high commissioners would take place and therefore the level of representation in each country will be enhanced. There were other indications also one day suddenly out of the blue Pakistan proposed presumption of trade relations with India in certain goods India made no comment on it and within 24 hours Pakistan reversed that decision saying that this proposal was good to the cabinet but the cabinet was not agreeable to that. This was like a flash in the pan just an issue that is by these things and they say the next day that is not by these things. And India took it very calmly we did not criticize them for even for proposing it or changing the position later. Another interesting thing that happened was in a second SARC based meeting on the pandemic there was one earlier March last year which was a failure because Pakistan did not participate at the head of government level and the minister who came to that meeting as usual raised the Kashmir issue. The second but in the second meeting of SARC which was specifically on measures to be undertaken in view of the variants of the coronavirus as well as a second or a third wave which was expected which were expected in the subcontinent strong action should be taken. And here for the first time probably in a SARC meeting the Pakistani representative did not erase the Kashmir issue and moreover proposed Prime Minister's suggestion yet made some five suggestions for collaboration among SAR countries to combat COVID-19. Another good sign but none of these developments were acknowledged as significant by the ministry of external affairs which maintained as I said earlier that the best avenue for communication between the two countries is the channel between the high commissions and no other channel was necessary but most people did not believe this and the Indian position that no back channel communication had taken place sounded unreal but it was true since there were no regular consultation it was believed that it is not yet formal and as I said still Mr the foreign minister of Russia made a formal announcement because he didn't talk about back channel communications but he said the efforts of Indian party that normalize relations. Of course the first suspicion that most people had was that President Biden must be behind this because you had to find a point of a trigger and President Biden had made his policy position on the Indo-Pacific, Afghanistan, India etc made very clear and it was possible that in the context of Afghanistan where the United States is particularly interested in Pakistan was a key to the solution of the Afghan situation may have perhaps advised both India and Pakistan to make some peace moves so this again is pure speculation and of course some welcome was expressed in different quarters that you know something seems to be happening between India and Pakistan so nobody now believes that there is no action between India and Pakistan and that all these small signage signs which we are seeing the blossoms which we see on the India-Paris that border are somehow real and we can expect something more to come in the in the future but some interesting feature of the present situation is that the conversation is supposed to be not by non-official uncommitted individuals but by Mr. Doher and Mr. Bajwa who can hardly be considered back channel diplomacy because back channel diplomacy the advantage is they don't have fixed positions but even if it is a secret conversation between two representatives the government who are at very high positions with access to the heads of government then it can hardly be called back channel diplomacy it is more than that if they are actually involved so there is no such indication of that so the whole point of back channel diplomacy is to try out ideas without any commitment by the government of the two countries and if the discussions consultations lead to something concrete which could be acceptable to either side then it could be turned taken over by the government as it has happened in the past so the secrecy of the back channel discussions can permit few individuals whose activities will not be public without scrutiny by the press and the strategy community with unaccountable aims because whether they succeed or fail or no credit or no blame is placed on them in other words they are often unsung heroes because they can be very easily disowned by the government consent so therefore the interlocutors unless they come to an understanding the official negotiations cannot take place there is no reason why the two sides should pretend that such things have not happened or will not happen because back channel diplomacy which is often referred to as track 2 diplomacy has taken place many times before Mr. Satyapar Lamba himself was doing this for a long time there was Mr. R. K. Mishra there were several Indian public people who were engaged in this many of them we don't even know what conclusions they reached because they are not in the public domain but there are books about that those who are engaged in black back channel diplomacy sometimes writes books explaining what happened so these things do come out so I could even say that you know back channel diplomacy or track 2 diplomacy is some kind of a cottage industry in Islamabad and in Delhi so since we have this long history of back channel contacts even during wars terrorist attacks military action whose work came to be known only later much has been accomplished by them but the details are normally not released the thing to remember is that in spite of all the difficulties that we have any progress made in terms of India-Pakistan relations would be very welcome at this time because there has always been a fear after the Chinese action in Ladakh that there could be a two fronts war facing India so since we are engaged so much on the China border it would give India much relief that the Garnes are fallen silent on the LOC so while we are dealing with LAC we want to make sure that the LOC is quiet that is one reason the other reason is that any prime minister India or Pakistan who can find a solution to this problem is sure to win a Nobel Prize and which prime minister would not like a Nobel Prize and the more courageous the prime minister is the more imaginative the prime minister is the desire to settle this and get a ultimate trophy is something which is in the minds of prime ministers of both sides we have seen this before so when India or Pakistan says that we will go the extra mile there is this consideration that it is not a victory in a war which would be appreciated or abandoned by the world around us particularly because we are both nuclear weapon states any kind of peace moves or normalization of relations will help and new elements have been introduced into the situation because Article 370 and the open claim that we have made on the Pakistani-occupied Kashmir are some new elements in the whole situation because these two were not there in the original situation because India was quite willing to accept the LOC as the international border and it was Pakistan who insisted that it should be LOC plus but into that mix of issues and the intentions of both sides some new elements have been introduced so that opens up a little bit of new space because they could speak about Article 370 and the Pakistan accepts that it will be some progress similarly if you could speak about Pakistan-occupied Kashmir and what our real intentions are and that might clarify things so unlike in the past there are opportunities there are possibilities for some new issues to be talked and resolved so on the one hand there is a desire for peace particularly in the context of international public opinion the China situation which could move to a two front wars that India had to fight and these new elements which have been introduced to the mix make it believable that in fact some discussions are taking place India's difficulty is that we are bound by our position that no bilateral discussion should be possible unless Pakistan stops terrorism some Pakistan spokesman said well if you are willing to talk about Kashmir we are willing to talk about terrorism but that is just a statement but if there is sincere effort to resolve that and some basic understanding is reached between the interlocutors in the back channels perhaps there is some hope that there could be peace between India and Pakistan so though the two countries have not confirmed that discussions are taking place in the light of all these signals that I pointed out earlier and particularly Mr Lavrov's announcement in Islamabad that welcome changes are taking place in India-Palestinians I think we can safely presume that some back channel consultations are taking place and let us hope that it will come to some kind of understanding and we will have a new situation a better situation between India and Pakistan there is no guarantee that any of these things will happen at the moment because there are so many hazards and dangers and by India and Pakistan sit down to talk whether secretly or publicly so let us hope that something comes out of it but at the point at this point we are unsure of what exactly is happening thank you very much