 The following is a presentation of TFNN. Market's kickoff with your host, Tommy O'Brien. Good Monday morning everybody. I'm Tommy O'Brien, company live from TFNN just after 9 a.m. Eastern time. I hope everyone had a great Easter weekend out there, long weekend in the markets. We've got the jobs number Friday. Interesting action so far this morning. We're zooming in on a 15-minute basis. Future's open as the market gets those jobs on Friday. 236,000 jobs added for the month of March. Decent numbers. Unemployment rate, 3.5%. Not sure how you squash inflation with an unemployment rate that continues to go down on employment. Market nonetheless likes the number, trades up a bit. You see the volatility on that 8.30 Friday number and it looks like everybody was just eating some good Easter Sunday ham maybe, enjoying Easter, enjoying Passover and they waited until about 7.15 this morning and then the market sells off. Market's right across the board right now. S&Ps, we're approaching 4100. You're negative by 25 points right now. That's about 6.10% in the red. NASDAQ 100, you're off by about 9.10, inching towards 13,000. We were up above 13,150. You just trade down 110 points. You're almost off a full percent from where you were just at 6.30 a.m. this morning when most of us woke up. Dow off 127 points. That's about a 30% in the red this morning and you got the Russell off by 6.10%. Bitcoin, holding up relatively well. I'm just going to record that one, man, Bitcoin. Just staggering how well it's been holding up. Up $370 right now, 28,415. You got crude, a little bit of volatility, but crude right now, negative by 33 cents right now, 80.38, quite the week last week, of course, for crude. You got the OPEC plus cut a week ago. Since then, crude, pretty tight volatility in terms of a pretty tight trading range from 80 to about 81. We're almost right in the middle of that range. Contract, giving back some of the gains of last week. Gold up to 2,050 almost last week this morning. You see the drop-off down $23 on the session. 2003, just hanging on to that 2,000 price point in the price of gold. Jump around. What is? It's not on my list, yeah. We got to talk about natural gas, folks. That's what I was getting to because they're talking about natural gas in the den, rightfully so. Check out the acceleration going on in natural gas, man. The whole market waking up this morning at 7.45 a.m., natural gas just spikes from 204 to 216. You're up 7% in natural gas. Remarkable silver, back to the metals. Down about 15 pennies as gold, straight and lower silver, still at about $25. You jump to notes and bonds. You see the action on Friday. You see the action today. So on the jobs number, you get a little bit of lower price, higher yield. We're talking about a 10-year right now approaching 3.4%, 3.385. As we have lower price, higher yield coming back after that number. We put the 10-year on a daily just for some context here. And you can see, still well off the lows that we had when the Silicon Valley banking crisis began. But pulling back a bit on the 10-year right now, the 30-year, up 4 ticks, actually. 133.07. We jump over to the volatility index. A little bit of negative action in the market on the VIX. You get, oh, come on. Come on. There we go. 1988, you could call that elevated, but still pretty low volatility premium in this market considering what we've been dealing with and considering the volatility that we have potentially coming down the line. We kick off earning season, man. It is, what day? April 10th, April 10th, earning season coming at you. We get a lot of the big banks on Friday to kick things off. And let's jump through a couple of them. You jump over to the Analyze tab. You jump over to the Earnings tab on the Thinker Swim platform. So we get J.P. Morgan. They'll be out with their numbers on Friday. Let's see who else we get. We get Citi out with their numbers as well. Wells Fargo out with their numbers as well on Friday. So we got J.P. Morgan, Wells Fargo, Citi. Bank of America is next week. Bank of America is next week. We also got Goldman and Morgan Stanley next week on the 18th. Okay, what is that? Tuesday and Wednesday, 18th? Yeah, so you got Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley on the 18th. Excuse me. You have Goldman Sachs and Bank of America on the 18th. And we get Morgan Stanley on the 19th. Now what we do get, which will be interesting, is you get First Republic. They'll be out with their numbers. Thought that was Thursday. Then they got them up on the 24th. Maybe somebody can help me out. Pretty sure that was. But nonetheless, you jump back to this chart. And yeah, they're not out of the woods, folks. First Republic, man. This thing chopping around from 140 down to 14. That's 10% of the value this thing was trading at. About two months ago, which you could calculate as almost a 90% probability that the thing's going to go BK from where it was prior. I just don't understand in the banks, man, how any single entity puts money in a bank over $250,000. Folks, if you're a trader, if you're an investor, you want to look at things from a risk reward perspective. Our man Larry Pezzavento says it all the time. It's not what you can make. It's what you can lose. They both are an integral part of the risk reward scenario. Well, if you're putting more than $250,000 in a bank, I know I'm speaking ABCs of math and investments. Of course, we all know this stuff. But what is going on? That people still have that much money in many of these banks. It's going to take a while. But there's going to be massive pressure across the board on deposits. You're going to see CD rates continue to face pressure to the upside as banks need capital. And they're going to have to pay for it. I've talked about it on my show before. We take a look at the 10-year. The 10-year treasury right now is at about 3.39%. Call it even 3.4%. We'll round up. 10 years at 3.4%. Folks, you go out to a two-year, five-year CD. You're pushing 4.6%, 4.8%, 4.9%, depending on where you're going, depending on a ladder, depending on what you want to do, rates high, banks facing pressure, people taking out deposits at the same time as they have problems on their balance sheets, at the same time that they're going to have to pay more money for those deposits at a minimum credit is tightening up. And there's going to be some level of scale in terms of how much that tightening credit influences banks lending capital requirements. And then on top of that, you have just the fact that even if they're fine, even if they're not going BK, banks are going to have some real tough times on earnings, man, because their balance sheets are facing woes. The Fed has said they're going to stay higher for longer, even if maybe they got one more hike down the line. That seems to be one of the stories out there. Maybe they hike one more time. And then maybe that puts enough pressure on the market to pause. We'll talk about that in the next segment, because I'm going to go over the Fed schedule. And we have a Fed meeting coming up in less than a month. That one will be interesting, but boy, it's going to be really interesting when you go one more month out, because we're going to get two months of data before that next meeting. And it's going to be data dependent. And this jobs number, folks, okay? Job mark. You can almost pick your headline, which is interesting. And this is how it's always been. In terms of there's something for everybody in every data point, because there's so many pockets of the economy that either are. Whether you look at this number, okay? Non-farm payrolls rise to 236,000 in March, in line with forecasts. Participation rate up to a three-year high, helping the labor supply. You look at that number, folks. It's the lowest number in basically a couple years. Okay? But the unemployment rate keeps going down. That's not how it works, man. We are at 3.5% unemployment. You had an upwardly revised 326,000 job number in February. Unemployment rate at 3.5%. There were signs of cooling. Folks, we're at 3.5%. There are signs of cooling, but boy, they are minuscule signs. We got a lot to talk about on Monday, folks. Don't go away. We'll be right back. If you're looking for potential trading setups in the stock market, then Rocket Equities & Options Report is a newsletter you should try. Tommy O'Brien delivers options and equity trades when the markets present them using a combination of fundamentals and technicals. Sign up for Rocket Equities & Options Report today with a 30-day money-back guarantee so you have nothing to risk. 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Visit TFNN.com and try Mastering Probability 30 days risk-free today. TFNN Educating Investors. TFNN has launched the Tiger's End. Hosted at Discord, TFNN has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours, the Tiger's End. Available to all tigers and tigers for just $1 for the year. There's no catch or added costs when you join our community of traders. Sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders. Just visit the front page of TFNN.com. Welcome back, folks. We have the S&P right now, negative by 23. NASDAQ 100, negative by 113. Dow off 108. Russell off by 7. We're kicking off earnings, man. A little bit of negative action, but all things considered, folks. Look where we are in this market, right? You're talking about a lofty level of 4108 right now, and as I mentioned, okay? Getting back into that jobs number real briefly. They talk about signs of cooling, annual wages, annual wages rising at the slowest pace since June of 2021. I think that number was about 4. something percent, 4.6 maybe percent. But overall, the much data following strong readings in the prior two months paid a picture of a resilient labor demand that is particularly remarkable as other parts of the economy slow. Listen, the Fed has talked about, man, you can't have wages like this and we're going to tame inflation. It just doesn't happen because wages are paid by companies. Companies have to recoup the wages. Now I'm adding, you know, but it just makes sense. Round and round you go, okay? You've got people making more money. You got companies incurring greater costs. You got companies incurring greater costs. What are they going to do? They're going to charge more money for their products to recoup the costs justifiably. So payrolls have jumped by more than 1 million since the start of the year. That's only for three months, folks. Excuse me. While the data are a bit mixed, the labor market is strong enough and inflation still elevated and sticky to the Fed to raise rates another 25 basis points in May. That's the chief economist at Nationwide Life Insurance. One person out there, one person's opinion. Could be the last for the tightening cycle followed by a long pause. Now, that's an interesting kicker, right? Because that's where the debate is really starting to rage. Now, what we have is we have a Fed meeting. Yeah, remarkable. Let me pull this up. How quickly they come, okay? We have a Fed meeting less than a month from right now, May 2nd and 3rd, okay? Yeah, look at that. What are we talking about? One, two, time flies, man. Three weeks from tomorrow, three weeks from this Wednesday, we got a Fed decision, okay? Now, we've gotten the jobs number for March already. We're going to get some economic numbers as they continue, of course. We'll get CPI, of course, for March. What's so interesting here is, okay, this meeting coming up from May, May 2nd and 3rd, okay? But then you go to the next meeting and you're talking about all the way to June 13th and 14th, okay? Now, what's interesting there is you're not going to have, when you have the May meeting, May 2nd and 3rd, you're not going to have the April jobs number. That's the last jobs number we got before the next Fed meeting, okay? We're not getting any more non-farm payroll numbers. That's one of the most important data points out there right now. So that data's out. Next Fed meeting coming up. We're not getting any more jobs data. But we get two months of jobs data between the May meeting and the June meeting. Because what do we get? We're going to get April and May data coming into that June meeting. It's a lot of data, man. So if anybody tells you they know what's going on by June, I'd give them some pause because we've just got so much data coming down the line over that time. And when you're looking at unemployment rate of 3.5%, folks, I don't envision they have the ability to be cutting anytime soon. We've talked to our man, Kevin Hinks. We talked to him every Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday. Maybe an event takes place, okay? Maybe the banks have a real issue. We're going to get into some of the commercial. I mean, commercial, they've been talking about it a ton. Everywhere. They're talking about it in the den rightfully so. Commercial real estate could be something that is a constant pressure on the banks, on the market, on the economy for a period of years right now. And we're going to get into that one. And you know what? Let's try and find the articles. Let's get into it because I got a few of them, man. Let me see if I pull up Bloomberg. Check out Bloomberg, okay, this morning. They're talking about it a lot, but I've been thinking about it a lot. And bigger picture, okay? Bigger picture we could really weigh on this economy is commercial real estate, man, because you better believe the world has changed, folks. No matter what you feel about the economy, slowdowns, okay? And there's probably going to be a slowdown, okay? The fact that the world has changed forever and people are working from home at a much greater rate than ever envisioned three years ago, and I can't believe we're talking about three years ago was when COVID was three years. Talking to my dad, flew by. I mean, it just changed everyone's time perception over the last three years because our lives stopped. You know, everything stopped. School stopped. Activity stopped. Going to work stopped. You worked from home. And it created just a two to three year period of time that just time flew. So three years ago, but the world has changed. Office space is no longer necessary like it was. Now, if you want to talk about your marquee properties, right? You want to talk about your marquee New York properties. You want to talk about your marquee properties wherever they are, where you have Fortune 500 companies that need a global headquarters, right? They need somewhere where their C suite is. They need a beautiful audit entrance way, right? With maybe some whatever it is, right? Class A office space. I imagine they're going to be okay because it makes sense. But boy, if you're in the middle of a pack or the lower in the pack, what's the point of bringing people into an office building that has no purpose whatsoever besides cubicles, which a lot of office buildings have, okay? And they had a great use when people had to come to the office, but that world has changed, man. It's probably a lot more cost efficient when people are in that capacity to put a lot of them at home. Now, that's an entirely different debate, but it has changed to put it lightly, okay? Now, there are some steep numbers here in terms of what they're talking about, in terms of the real estate here. Let me get the one that we're talking about for real estate, okay? What commercial real estate stress means for banks and bond funds, where the cracks are showing up in the market? Now, there's a couple different ones here. A $1.5 trillion wall of debt is looming for U.S. commercial properties. Yeah, refinancing risks front and center, okay? Number one, and check this out, office retail property valuations could fall as much as 40%. And I have to find the ETFs they're talking about and maybe somebody in the den has it, because I was listening to, I think it was Barry Ritholtz this weekend, podcast. One of the, I was listening to Bloomberg on this weekend, one great program that we're, I can't remember, but it was a great program. And what they were talking about is, they were talking about private equity is private, okay? So you don't know really what's going on in private equity and that could be another factor in here, let alone the amount of commercial real estate loans that are on the bank's balance sheets, okay? We're just gonna put pressure on them. But what they were saying was, if you look at some of the private equity ETFs, I gotta pull it up because it was a staggering statistic. Private equity versus the public REITs, public REITs where you're traded down 40% to 50%. Private equity down like 5%, 6%, because nothing's been marked, okay? So it's a massive, massive difference when you go across the board here. And I read on one of these that's something like a quarter of loans are coming up in the next year or something like that. There's almost so much data out there, folks, on this one. 1.5 trillion of US commercial real estate debt comes to for repayment before the end of 2025. What's gonna happen is the cap rates on all of these properties are gonna be insanely different from where they were. Investment bank estimates, office and retail property valuations could fall as much as 40% from peak to trough. That shouldn't be surprising, folks, at all. Okay? Number one, you have much lower rates in terms of occupancy. And then in the same essence, you have less people paying to rent that space and at the same time, it's gonna cost you more to refinance it. And in some cases, all their equity is gonna be wiped out and they're gonna wanna hand it back to the bank and they're not gonna wanna hand it back to the bank. The bank's not gonna wanna take it. In light of a banking crisis already existing, folks, how's that gonna play out when we got unemployment rate at 3.5% and the Fed's in a tough spot? We're gonna get to see. Stay tuned for the opening bell. We'll be right back, folks. Building wealth trading in the stock market seems impossible to most people. 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You look at an S&P opening basically right near the lows of last week. Thursday and Friday, you make it down to about 4100. You close out the week where you inch towards 4140 on that jobs number and right now you're treating it 4107. Market's in negative territory. S&P's off 610, Nasdaq 100 off almost a full percent right now. You get the Dow off about 100 points. That's almost 310 right now and the Russell catches a little bit with the Russell down about 310%. Let's check out some of those banks as we come into earnings on Friday. It's going to be a tough one, man. What's the impetus to have a huge acceleration on banks when we're dealing with all the woes that I'm talking about, man? CD rates, I'm going to pull up CD rates in a moment. We'll pull them up. These banks are going to have to be paying up big time, man. JPMorgan down 810%. Citi down only 210% right now. Wells Fargo I think out on Friday down about 610% right now. And take a look at these. These are CD rates as of this morning, folks. You want some free money in terms of guaranteed money. Don't put $250,000 in any bank. Don't put more than that. But keep your numbers at an ensured amount and look at the numbers you're talking about here. You can get a 2-year ladder at 4.84. You can get a 5-year ladder at 4.61. You just want a 5-year. You're talking about 4.4% right now if you want a 5-year ladder. You got 4.6. You want a 2-year non-callable CD 4.7%. You put $100,000 in there, man. You're making almost $10,000 in 2 years risk-free. Now, folks, there's nothing to say. The market's going to go down. But make sure you are positioned correctly for where you're comfortable with risk reward because if you're not comfortable with risk or you don't have the time to ride out a potential downturn from here, then, boy, a risk-free rate of 4.84% on a 2-year ladder or a risk-free rate of 4.61 on a 5-year, that's pretty attractive, man. And this is going to be a headwind for the market as we continue. And, yeah, getting back to that article I was talking about in terms of the end, okay, this is talking about here. We'll slide back up. This is a different one, jumping around. The end may be in sight for global rake hike cycle as the Fed nears peak, but one of the other ones I wanted to look at because they tie in, bond market is overplaying the risk of a deep recession, okay? And what they're talking about here is that each day that there isn't a bank in crisis is another day indicating that the current pricing does not make sense, but it's going to take a while. Again, that's one person, that's a CIO, chief investment officer for some fund company, okay? They worked for Bridgewater for 13 years, got a lot of respect for Bridgewater, Mr. Dalio, what he did there. And as usual, the debate is not settled. Now, it's interesting here as you go back to the other article I was looking at, okay, you scroll down here in terms of what they're talking about for rates, okay? The Federal Reserve, the current Fed funds rate, the upper boundary is 5%. Bloomberg Economics thinks that they're going to end the year at 5.25. What is that? That's one more hike and a pause. Excuse me, that seems pretty reasonable. And then they're looking for potentially 4.25 as in you get four cuts sometime over the next year. Again, pretty reasonable, okay? But well off what the market is pricing in right now. Yeah, well off in terms of what they're pricing in right now. What Bloomberg Economics says, we expect the Fed to hike by another 25 basis points at its May. The upper boundary is going to reach 5.25. And then you got with the recent production cuts by OPEC and a still tight interest labor market. Inflation will likely remain in the vicinity of 4% in 2023 and keep the Fed from rate cuts as markets currently foresee. Yeah, I mean, you're telling me we're going to get a three-handle in inflation over the next eight months? I don't see it. We see the Fed holding rates at the peak level for the duration of this year and even as a mild recession is likely to develop in late 2023. They go over the other banks as well, okay? Keep in mind, folks, that the unemployment rate is at 3.5%. We have inflation raging. Now, the wage numbers that just came out of the jobs number was something like 4.6%. I think maybe if somebody in the den has exactly what it rose, I think it was 4.6%. Wages went up on a yearly basis. That's showing signs of easing, okay? But an ADP has different numbers out there and ADP is not the number that non-farm payrolls is in terms of how representative it is of the entire economy within the country. But ADP, folks, for the last year, shows 7% wage increases if you're in the same job and 14% if you change jobs. Very difficult to imagine the Fed going on a cutting cycle with those numbers with unemployment at 3.5% and inflation is still pretty lofty to put it lightly. Now, I keep saying it because of course an event could happen. You know, they push it up higher. We have commercial real estate really puts the clamp on things. Things slow down much quicker than we expect. They can turn on a dime, but that's the reason why they're not going to get ahead of inflation and start cutting because they can turn on a dime. You don't want to be late. They were late to the inflation party, which is why we're raging right now, okay? So they don't want to be late on the other side of that. But keep in mind that they were late to the inflation party because they demanded to see that that was not transitive, right? Everybody else said it wasn't transitive. Chairman Powell was one of the last people to inspire that term. It's going to be the same way on the other side, okay? It is. He's not going to wait for inflation to rage before hiking and then all of a sudden start cutting before inflation is clearly out of the picture. He's going to be data dependent and he was slow on one side and the only way you can rationalize that, I mean put yourself in his head. We're all human beings, folks. He is a human being, okay? He thinks it's a legacy. The only way he can really defend the decisions that got us here is to say, I'm going to do the same exact thing on the other side, okay? I waited too long because I demanded to see the data that we were deep in inflation and it wasn't going to be transitory. And I feel like he's going to do the same thing on the other side that he's going to say, hold on a second, man. I need to see some real data that we're going back to 2% before we start cutting. And please, give me a call, folks, because what is it going to take to show that we're on the way back to 2%? Boy, it is going to take some numbers, man, and we're not even close to where we need to be just yet. My opinion, okay, but we're all just dealing with opinions, but we'll go from there. Now let's jump to the biggest dog out there, Apple, okay? We jump over to Apple shares this morning as this market deteriorates. Here we go. Apple shares. This could be the one that does it, folks. You start getting a company like Apple trading off 2% on a day. This thing has been carrying the market, man, carrying it, okay? And you're off 2% and rightfully so. Apple's 40% plunge in PC shipments is the steepest among major competitors. It's a big number, but even among computer makers, it's the biggest, okay? So we know PC shipments are in trouble because everybody bought a computer that needed one over the last three years, right? Generalizing, but look at the numbers we're talking about here. Apple's down 40%. That's PC shipments down in the first quarter for all major brands. HP, they're almost down half of that, 24%. Dell, 30%. 30%. Overall, 29%. Apple down 40. 5%, man. 40.5% is the number for Apple. And you take a look at this equity as you're now down to 2.3% and folks, you're down almost $4. That's $64 billion in market cap that just got wiped out on Apple shares. You want to talk about things moving quickly, man? Yeah. The Nasdaq 100 is off 1.35%, just like that. Dow off 410%. You take a look at Apple. I talked about it last week, man. Apple shares basically just gave back nothing as in they were trading at December prices of 2021. That's not what Max Payne looks like, folks. Stay tuned. We'll be back in three minutes. Lots more to talk about, folks. You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market, you're going to need a crystal ball. After all, it's impossible to predict the future, right? Like any endeavor in life, before you decide it's impossible, get some advice from the experts. You might find that it's not so impossible after all. For daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices, selective stocks and commodities, subscribe to the opening call newsletter at tfnn.com. The opening call newsletter is written by Basil Chapman, creator of the trading methodology known as the Chapman Wave. The Chapman Wave up-down sequence gives you an edge in identifying price turns, finding the peaks and valleys and stock prices. Get the opening call newsletter by Basil Chapman in your inbox every day. First-time subscribers also get a 30-day money back guarantee. If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. Are you looking for a way to consistently add winning trades to your portfolio? Tom O'Brien is here to help. 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They got their own issues with Tesla shares off. There you go for Elon. 4.20% for Tesla shares as I pull it up. You got Amazon shares off 1.8%. You got Microsoft shares off 1.7%, man. These companies have held up extremely well folks. They've been carrying this market and if they turn watch out. Yeah. And I'm going to bring it up because it's a great point, Jimmy. And I ask it as a real question to try and understand what you think because, you know, politics comes into everything. Okay. So let's say that Chairman Powell is a little bit worried about keeping his position, which is the point that he makes in the Den and he held off on some of those hikes initially. That would mean that Chairman Powell is a little bit self serving for his own interests versus what he thought would be the correct move to make, right? You'd go for that assumption which listen, man, politics. So many people are only interested in their own power politics, man. They're not doing even the best thing for their constituents because the only thing they can do is what will keep them in power to that same type of degree. Okay. So if that's the case, where my head goes, all right, Jimmy, because this is just opinions, man, we're playing it out, right? You're just kind of like playing things out where they could be, where they go. I would say if that's the case, man, if I was in Chairman Powell's position, I would be petrified that my legacy would be the guy who led inflation rage and then didn't have the conviction to keep the cuts in place. You know? And that's, then I agree, man. I suspect they go much higher for much longer than anyone expects. Then we're on the same page, man, totally. And maybe that's the case. And maybe they just keep it for longer, which I think might be the case. And that would be, you know, boy, you stay at five, five and a quarter for a couple years. What's going to happen to the banks, man? What's going to happen to CD rates? What's going to have to commercial loans, right? Yeah. And he's expressed admiration for Valker's stuffy, but words are words, man. And I don't think that he's come with the same amount of zest that maybe some may have. And so of course, in his position, I would say you have to express admiration for Valker because he's the Fed Chairman that's getting crushed by inflation and Valker's the guy who crushed it. So you better be impressed by the last guy that did what you should do. So it'll be interesting to see folks because I don't see, I mean, let's put it this way, right? Risk reward. You look at things risk reward. What is the risk to Chairman Powell if he keeps rates where they are or goes a little bit higher? Well, the risk is you hurt the economy. That's it. That's the risk, right? They have two mandates, price stability and full employment. Well, we're 3.5% unemployment folks and price stability is a joke right now. These are things Chairman Powell is thinking about, okay? He does not. I agree, man. Get in the den, folks. We got so many great minds in the den. It's going 24 hours a day this time. I love it. I open it up in the morning. The moment I wake up at 6 o'clock, the tigers and tigers are already in their chat. And yeah, there is so much more risk for being the guy who led inflation rage and ruined a generation of retirees savings, okay? Or what do you do? You keep it higher for another year or two. You make sure there's no massive event, which they've already done, okay? You get inflation under control. And your legacy is that, yeah, you let it get out of control, but COVID was a one-off event and he held his he held his feet, you know, he held his position and got it under control. It's an easy risk-reward scenario, man, until this market breaks and folks when you got the biggest company in the world, okay, trading at where it was basically at a almost a remarkable high. I mean, last week, folks, we were at December prices of 2021. For some context here, okay, Apple traded from 2008 of $2 and change up to 182 and last week we were trading at 166, the same price it was in, in December. Yeah, what do we trade to? We traded to 166.84 last week and December it was trading at 157.80, okay? That's not a dramatic give-back. Now it's had quite an acceleration to start off the year and this is what I talk about, man, Apple this year traded from 124 to 164. You traded up 33% is where you were at, man. Be careful in this market, folks, okay? If we kick things off and I was thinking maybe that we kick things off this week and we have the banks trading a little bit lower. But that's not even what's happening right now and that might even be scarier because tech companies have been holding this thing up and we're seeing them all get crushed today and we're seeing them get crushed on real numbers, man, because that's a real number, okay? Not only do you have Apple slowing down, you have Apple slowing down much more dramatically than its competitors. What's up with that? Right? Yeah, it was only down 8%, 0.8% in the pre-market. They bought an update that because now it's down 2.4%, man. Slowdown and consumer spending of the past year led to double-digit declines in smartphone shipments and accumulating glut among the world's foremost memory chip suppliers. Yeah. It's going to be interesting to see how it plays out, man. And they're saying maybe if you look forward to 2024, you might see a rebound. I don't know, man. You know, if rates stay higher and you got mortgage rates are up, rates are still catching up, folks, okay? Because people are still redoing their lease a year or two later. That's going to take two, three, four, five years to play out, right? You got car loans that are pushing 6% to 7%. Now, we're going to talk a little bit more about cars in the next one, because that's an interesting one as well in terms of the boom and bus cycle and how we might go into some tough profits for some of those car makers out there. There's a great article, I think it was from the journal last week I was reading and I'm going to try and find it during this break because I was talking to my dad about this weekend and what they were talking about is that the car companies have said, listen, we're not going to start just producing cars again when we can. Because we found that you produce a small amount of cars, you make a lot of money, you deliver it to the shareholders and that's what the market likes and that's what we're going to do. But you know where that becomes a problem? The employees. Because they are equipped to make more cars than they're making right now. And a lot of those car companies have unions and those unions are going to make it very difficult to back all those employees to scale back their capital and all that stuff. So what's probably going to happen is, no matter what they say, they're going to wrap it up, make the cars, it's going to be boom and bust. It might be the new oil industry, the car companies as they go around downtown. There's just so much going across in that market across the board. All right, you know what we're going to talk about now? We're going to talk a little hockey, man. With all the sports going on this weekend, how about ROM the Masters yesterday? Tiger making the cut. Some big time rain, weather in the Masters. ROM was a great champion, man. And it was pretty cool to see. Not a fan of Liv and the Saudis, man. But it did ramp up the competition when you got the Liv guys and the PGA guys combining at the majors and the Liv guys finished two, three and four, man. So ROM saved the day for the PGA because could you imagine if the story would have been Liv takes one, two, three in the Masters. ROM, great champion, man. And he just played outstanding folks. If you didn't see the end of the Masters, he had a four shot lead with about four to play, something like that. He had a pretty good hand on it. Brooks Kepka played amazing for the first two or three days, just really struggled yesterday and lost it, unfortunately. But ROM just, just absolute steel confidence, man, where he was just crushing drives with four holes to play, no layups at all. That's how it was, you know, it was amazing to watch. But when we take a break, folks, we're going to talk a little bit of Frozen Four because Quinnipiac, they are the national champions and they have barely had a D1 hockey program for 20 years. They've won it in overtime. They beat the juggernaut Minnesota team out there and I'm a hockey fan. So we're going to talk a little bit of hockey and we'll finish up on the market. Don't go away, folks. We'll be right back. TFNN has just launched their new trading room, the Tiger Zen hosted at Discord. TFNN has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours. And now they are expanding their reach with the Tiger's Den available to all Tigers and Tigris for just $1 for the year. There's no cash or added costs when you join our community of traders in the Tiger's Den. You can look over the shoulders of Tom O'Brien and the other TFNN hosts while they analyze charts during their live Tiger TV programs and join an interactive trading community with hundreds of members exchanging ideas, interact with other Tigers and Tigris as they share trading ideas, news analysis, and discuss the market action all trading day even at night and on the weekends. 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First time subscribers also get a 30 day money back guarantee. If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. Subscribe to the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter today TFNN.com Educating Investors This segment is brought to you by Think or Swim. For more information just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com Welcome back folks. Boy it might be an interesting day man. We're coming up for earning season. We have the Nasdaq 100 off 1.5% right now. You got Apple shares off 2.6% You just dropped 5 bucks on Apple from where you were trading on Thursday and $5 folks on Apple is $880 billion in market cap. This company just lost. Market might be a little bit scared of what's going on man. If you start seeing these tech companies take a hit. We jump over to Tesla. Tesla cut their prices yet again over the weekend down 4%. Now I'm going to jump to that article which I found it was didn't really talk about it last week because it was on Thursday at noon. Did my show Thursday morning. We're off Friday. After a boom an auto profit bust looms. Now a couple things as we jump through this. First of all, not many people would realize that we're still not even back to where we were pre-pandemic. This talks about the New York Auto Show that's going on. Last April when you're there, they had a ton of new vehicles. But guess what? You weren't going to be able to buy them because there was no inventory whatsoever. This year a little bit of a different story. There'll be some inventory potentially where you can get some of the cars you're looking at but we're not even back to where we were. Look at those numbers. You crash down to 2008 levels. We're back to here. Now what they talk about here though is that executives tirelessly make the case that they'll keep inventories in check. But guess what they say? The opposite seems much more likely. Now this is just a take man. Doesn't mean it's going to happen. Detroit's already plowing. It's unprecedented pandemic cash flows into brand new EV factories. When they're up and running the price wars could look fierce even by historic standards. They're making new factories for EV vehicles at the same time they still have the other factories. Okay? They talk about oil is used to boom and bust and that might be the case playing out here because what's got to happen folks? They got to deal with their employees. They got to deal with the unions, etc. And that's going to be a problem as they go forward. Pretty startling though. Not many people will realize that we're not even close to back to where we were pre-pandemic with new vehicles let alone things coming back a little bit online. And to get back to Quinnipiac folks, if you haven't seen some of the headlines check it out. They had a goal within 10 seconds of overtime to close it out against the Minnesota Gophers and check it out. This coach for them, he's been there for 29 years, showed up when it was just a D2 program. Pretty cool folks. Stay tuned. Basil's up next. Live programming all day folks. Have a great Monday. We'll talk to you tomorrow folks.