 Okay, very good morning. It's Tuesday 25th of February. I hope everyone is still alive after yesterday's price action and as you can see to the side of me then yesterday actually turning out to be one of the biggest one-day point drops we've had in the past three years and this is looking you know specifically chosen here this graphic of the last three years because it puts into context a little bit more of the Kind of acceleration that we had some volatility at the beginning of 2018 kind of post the Trump era So it's kind of more relevant in that sense. I think so here a loss of 1,031 points on the Dow So percentage wise just over three and a half percent the S&P down 3.35 and as that comp down 3.71 percent so significant losses across the board Overnight in Asia Japan remember was shut yesterday So they've played a bit of catch-up down a similar margin or bear off its worst levels and Yeah, much of this was what we were talking about yesterday the kind of renewed fear in the market about the potential Moving toward a full-blown pandemic on the fact that the virus is spreading In other far Eastern nations like South Korea Japan But also mainland Europe in the form of Italy in particular that seemingly acted as a real catalyst for price yesterday This was the Scoreboard if you like of the S&P 500 isn't you as you can see it's kind of a sea of red and This quite common then when there is just a singular Overall macro theme like that. So it's not like an isolated piece of information. It's a broader Macroeconomic scenario and so all sector sufferer in that type of situation Hence the reason why those major three indices really are roughly down the same margin if anything some of the more cyclical Tech-oriented stocks which have really outperformed Getting hit perhaps slightly harder your kind of tech giants Apple Amazon Microsoft all down in excess of 4% of the clothes You will see though. There is one little spot of green there on the board. It's probably the one singular Shining beacon of green and that is gillied sciences and the reason for that was yesterday the World Health Organization and saying that the company's drug Rem Remdesivir is showing signs that it may be able to help treat Coronavirus and so that's the one kind of singular bright spot on what otherwise was a complete red day This is what it looked like in context as well in terms of some of the year-to-date price action So we have had other short episodes of course when we've had say bouts of Interest on the coronavirus when certain numbers were getting Adjusted for methodology purposes and so on however this far in excess exceeding that price movement Two things then on the charts and I think a day like today It's really important to listen to Sam when he comes on because from a technical perspective now obviously There's a possibility that we could see a bit of a bounce in prices If you if you're looking the world that way that already has been occurring to some degree US stock futures already up quite quite significantly Obviously in contrast, we've got to put it in context of the big sell-off yesterday So a bounce of over a hundred points already in the NASDAQ future the Dow's already up about 200 But obviously granted we fell over a thousand yesterday So what normally is quite common from a statistical point of view It's uncommon for the market to be down a thousand point clips again and again and again In fact, it's incredibly rare and the only real time that I can remember in my career of that happening was right in the midst of the global financial crisis kind of going back to the 0809 era When there was you know complete fear in the market at that point and it was just all out selling I don't really Anticipate that in this scenario and you know whether or not we we do see further downward moves It's surely it's a possibility But I guess from my point of view to listen to Sam is about okay if we did bounce back up again Where would be key areas where the market might respond and you know It's just cycling through a couple of charts myself this morning I won't go into too much detail as to not pollute what Sam is gonna say But here's the S&P 500 and you can see the pickup that we've had During the Asia-Pacific session as the kind of dust to settle on yesterday's move But this was the S&P from yesterday few people were looking at that trend line going back from the year-to-date price activity The move that we had initially Going back to the Iranian situation when the Middle Eastern tensions were flaring if you remember right at the beginning of the Year, then we had the last little dip at the end of January. We did break through there, but we're back above there fairly comfortably at the moment now and then looking at the Dow yesterday Looking at this on kind of two bases one You had that double bottom from the year-to-date price activity and that was quite a key target yesterday When that was breaking oil was subsequently almost Insynchronized fashion breaking also a respective support point and that was quite a good for a timing on the short If you were part of that trade yesterday, but again, we're back above there at the moment And I was looking at a Slightly longer time frame here at the Dow because it helps put into contact contrast Some of that significant key area which we were trading yesterday because not only was that that double bottom year-to-date You can see it was an area of Restriction to some of the upside price action resistance that we had towards the back end of November of last year So quite a key area now where the market's trading and yesterday We came down these are all Areas which we've marked before The support point here coming in from again some of the previous highs and lows that have acted on this move up to record Territory we've had over the last several months Interestingly the day yesterday the only days that have topped that in terms of a one-day period of volatility is You got to go back. Let me just shift the chart over so you can see it This was that rectangle here. That was the price activity if you remember in 2017 and then we out was when the corporation tax cut came through and you know the earnings profit guidance going forward at that point in time you remember was almost vertical and Equity valuations were soaring at that point and then all of a sudden the market collapsed as signs were that the Fed We're going to have to start speeding up their tightening of policy and that collapse that we had there in February of 2018 was actually slightly more violent and the only time it's been a little bit more consistent on back-to-back days than what we've had Today so yeah a bit of a recovery The other thing then that's also bouncing as that Move is just dying off a little bit. There was quite a nice technical Rejection of an area in dolly yen here as well on the longer-term charts. I mean this is a multi month Area of resistance going back to the beginning of 2019 and that being respected and dropping back down through Some of the price action that we've had throughout the last few sessions as well a Couple of things then to point out Before I really move on and this is more Me talking about a couple of concepts and and point one is From a more practical point of view what has got to happen in order for the market to Reignite another down day. So what do you now as a trader need to look? Forward to in order for the market now having repriced itself to some degree in regards to The new reality of the situations equities have come down and so on is well What next and the thing I'd say I'd be looking out for or the following One is if we quickly switch over to the coronavirus Kind of live board you can see here total confirmed cases at 80,000 deaths of 2,700 to be honest. I think these numbers are Not particularly relevant in terms of a trading decision. What what graph if you like is more relevant in here and now is this one and this is looking at the tracking of actual Numbers of confirmed cases when mapping and it's the key one that I'm looking at is this green one Sorry, the excuse me the the yellow one. I don't know. It looks a little bit small here It's quite dwarfed, but if you were to zoom into that actually that's picked up quite substantially And that's the the other locations outside of this one, which is the mainland China obviously mainland China needs to be watched as they try to Open up their factories again and get their activity back In order to counteract the the implications in their economy, but it's the yellow line, which is then Italy Which is if we click on here Is the key one that people have been watching and then subsequently giving its geographic location What about then the sensitivity to other neighboring and close proximity nations? So here obviously it's we the two that already have confirmed cases of a slightly higher number would be Germany and France Neighboring then you've got Switzerland And then Austria as well on the northeastern side of the country. So any further Breakouts in these areas The Italian numbers to really grow. I think there would be the things which could create further interest from the market But for the moment it needs to be another rapid Increase in those numbers and it needs to be in new areas what we need Because the World Health Organization have not yet classified this as a pandemic a pandemic generally by definition means it needs to be growing Numbers rapidly in multiple different geographic locations worldwide And so what we need to see is an explosion like in Italy in the lights of Germany France Perhaps England as well and then you might start to see a secondary further reaction Into what we saw yesterday. So at the moment I do feel relatively calm about what has happened I Don't think that it really Shifts things too much if anything one thing that you probably saw yesterday is almost capitulation when the market starts to go into freefall people are just chasing the moves There are some technical good points to hit the market to get short again And that kind of forced the sellers to kind of chase the momentum a little bit And so the move can be somewhat overdone in that respect the one asset class that That did originally rise but then came down quite quickly as we went through the the afternoon was gold And I'd imagine there'll be quite a few traders out there that perhaps got a little bit hurt on the back of That pullback because if you look here We got quite close yesterday at the peak and around midday up towards the 1700 marker which was that previous area of highs that we had towards the beginning of 2013 So we're talking about multi-year highs here from technical levels of resistance But you know if you think about the Veracity of which gold has just soared over the last few days You know it's kind of like looking at that S&P and the late 2017 era You know it has that that air of People chasing the market higher and so inevitably When the market kind of pops in the short term it comes down quite dramatically. So that doesn't mean that I still wouldn't be a buyer of gold But for me the the gold price has got to probably get down to around a much lower level to feel much more assured about that being a An area to get in if you look at this area here Perhaps the strategy could then be for a medium-term position Picking up an entry point trying to get in and around that area of consolidation that we had a support and resistance going back towards the mid part of Here of the month and then using the 1600 as your marker to have your kind of stop place with some of those previous Highers looking for them for an eventual move and again This is over the medium term not the intro day to move back higher taking your relevant clips off various points Kind of here and then here and then just scaling out of the position as the market continues to move back up So I still like the the long gold positioning But as per anything asset when it rises so violently like it had done I think perhaps just a little bit overextensions and profit-taking in the short term it comes back But that doesn't change the overall Feeling about the direction of that asset perhaps over the next couple of months in general The the other final point that I wanted to stress here was for any new traders today Potentially is a very tricky day to trade because your mindset is almost polluted by the notion of what happened yesterday and whether it's the case of You felt like you missed out yesterday or you got the direction right But the execution wrong because of the general volatility might have been quite hard to get your execution on because that requires a lot of work It's really important to reanalyze today Objectively review and then look to trade accordingly and you know This was kind of a word of a bit of advice that I tweeted out my way into work this morning because I've seen a lot of traders lose Money quite easily on a daylight today where they come in almost blinkered by yesterday today is a brand-new day so fresh eyes a fresh mentality and Reanalyze and don't let yesterday's moves cloud today's judgment is my cut my kind of phrase for today The final few things that I just wanted to show share with you as I said There's a couple of good graphics that I thought might be relevant then I'll hand you over to Sam Was this may perhaps this one explains a little bit about what I was talking about From the trigger point of what to look out for going forward if things are to get more serious and Therefore to add continuity to yesterday's risk-off trade and that's that red line there as you can see We've had that Hubei province little spike as we've gone through some number of visions of course But if you actually look at the red line That's the one that's been the most concerned to markets And I guess it's about the future trajectory of that line Which will determine whether or not markets will need to take this move any further the one perhaps Sign of positivity in all this this was looking at basically shipping coming out of China and This was looking at the amount of million metric tons per day And it was looking at outbound traffic So this was this idea then of looking at alternative data as a means to try and look at How China how quickly can they come back to some normalization of their production activity in order to counter out the bottlenecks That we've seen evident in other economic data globally and as you can see here They've managed to ramp up quite radically the amount of shipping More recently and yesterday we were looking at traffic congestion live tracking charts to have a look in China in major Areas like Shanghai and Beijing and there was quite a distinct amount of movement of traffic once again for the first time really Since the lockdown had commenced across China. So these could be seen as more positive signs going forward the final chart is is oil and One thing for oil that I just wanted to comment was obviously yesterday was Some downside movement was being seen we did see I Mean I was looking at this with a couple of the guys from our sessions With a with another group That I deal with and it was really that low It was coming in and you know as we were going into the really the US crossover There was a bit of an opportunity there where the market saw some hesitation Right around that area of the previous load that we printed back on the 18th And it was really nice with the timing of cross-asset movement when equities were quite precarious support levels And when they started to threaten oil then was quite a nice trigger point for that equity move in terms of the domino effect And then we we push down lower now oil has bounced Interestingly, we remain well within that that rectangle. We've had on a while and this longer date is daily continuation of oil and Some of the OPEC plus rhetoric has come out once again, obviously What you'll tend to see is the amount of Comments that OPEC plus make particularly Saudi Arabia goes hand in hand of exactly where the price of oil is trading The more violently it starts to sell off the more the frequent the comments become and So yesterday you started to see it a reemergence of the discussion about are they going to have to make some kind of Deal and early agreement a cut to production But at the moment remember we've already got a week to go or so until their official meeting So I wouldn't be looking out for too much not unless well gets pressured and we start to see more dramatic movement And for that to happen We've really got to get through that lower bound of that kind of double bottom of the February price action To start opening up a much deeper move here on the daily charts South toward the mid 40 levels, but I don't really see that happening today To be quite honest, but still something to be technically aware of. All right. Let me hand you over to Sam And my final words will be for the calendar for today What have we got? Well, it's a fairly quiet morning. So I guess just a little bit of patience Just just reset your mentality I'd say restore some rationale and calmness to your decision-making and then go from there do listen up so closely to Sam's level picking It's going to be potentially quite key today Given the scope of volatility might be on any pullbacks quite large and then in the US session US consumer confidence main kind of highlight a couple of Fed speakers to be aware of as well as US auction two-year note You've got some UK supply also coming to market. All right. That is it. I hand you over to Sam and I wish you a good day Head. Thanks very much guys Yeah, hi guys. Good morning. I hope we've all had a good evening start offer I guess with with US equities and I'm gonna bring in the Got the NASDAQ here, but we'll change it over to the S&P see decent days To the downside big moves. I think on on days like this. It's always a case that's taking it easy Don't feel again like you need to be in a trade draw up your analysis I mean up first things first if you come in you got lines all over your chart Just get rid of everything start again You know, what are there the lines in the sand that you need to be aware of? Obviously the to the to the downside you've got those lows from yesterday double bottom That's going to be potentially a magnet if we do start to push lower If we just put this on the 15 minute here with you know, not really doing too much We're just coming down to what was the the low of the early morning trade So here potentially is your first level Where if you get below you might see a bit of a further drift down and with all of these trades You want to think about well if it does go below here is there room for it to go a bit more? So I'll be saying well if we break 45 we could be looking to drift down sort of 41 then 37 And then you know, there's a bigger move below that where it could go to 28 To the upside well we're in a bit of a range aren't we just from early hours this morning Those highs there you could also draw a bit of a line up around 30 to 60 We struggled to really clear that in the post cash open as well So pretty big level above that you'd feel pretty confident that we can actually get a fast move to the upside And that would be really the same picture here on both the Dow You can see this on its low of that morning and the NASDAQ as well So yeah, that's how I would be looking at it I don't really have an opinion on whether I think we're gonna test the low or it's an opportunity to buy the dip right now Because we're banging the middle of the range of The the last how many hours they've gone eight nine hours So I'm not really too interested about making a call However, if we do get below these lows then we could start getting a bit more interested saving the NASDAQ down to To 9100 and then those lows where you've got a triple bottom as well And like the Dow if you break that area here and the volume starts coming in the backs gets excited as well We break this point maybe you know aggressively or on the retest You're looking to sort of unwind that towards 28,000 on the flip side if it gets above those highs Then you've got to be aware of the resistance point around 28 300 as well gold pretty Interesting yes, obviously spiking to the upside in very early trade on Sunday evening Only to then come back down with a vengeance around 7 p.m. And we're just starting to see a bit of a bid come in here And I like quite like I was just looking at this just in the other room this trend line From some of those highs yesterday. It's not by all means perfect You can start to see here. You could argue one two three real key tests of that coming up to the fourth now As a bit of a guide above there. You're happy to maybe look for some long I know you've got a bit of resistance around 52 point five So probably more of an area here if we can get above there highs of the day Low as a yesterday before that push down into sort of the evening UK time around 7 15 Is how I would be looking at that to play to pan out the low that we got You can see it was a nice bit of support that we had back on Friday And really just just looking at this, you know could argue worth having 1641.7 on there as well but you know these would be the points where I'd be half interested in getting into a trade and Absolutely, it could spend Periods of hours in between that where I'm not interested in training one two three four five 15-minute candles just from there to there where it's just you know gradually pushed higher than now I've got 1641 to 52 over 10 bucks where I'm not really interested with those if it goes above or below Then I'll take action other than that just you know, no harm is sitting on that sideline oil similar actually You know, we can just see a little push lower is European open starts and maybe some of this risk comes back in but we haven't broken out the The bottom part of that range really you can see just below the pivot 51 50 pretty key level Albeit, you know chop through in late trade yesterday, but look at all of yesterday from 9 a.m It was such a good line in the sand really was so if you're looking at an oil trade Or be it are you really interested at 8 30 in the morning? 51 40 is a good a level as you're gonna get for just a bit of a guide or potential guide that you know below there We might start drifting down 51 20 and then it gets exciting, you know You start thinking about these loads coming in But if that holds then you know, we can absolutely push higher You've got some intraday support that we just broke through here 51 64 it's a bit of a line in the sand where the balls are saying, you know, if I've gone long on these lows I want that to break and and can get excited with all of these trades That gap to lower you obviously just got to be aware, you know If you are sure that the momentum could well be on these breaks these hires to really look to feel those I don't think we feel any gap today about This is something just to bear in mind perhaps for later on currencies You've got the euro just pushing to the upside this morning bit of a base You could argue is the pivot good level you can see from where we get low fan resistance broke through came back down What a level what a bit of a you know good guide that is for the balls and the bears below the pivot then You know, it's the lower part of that range over the last couple of training sessions And we look down towards the s1 again if we can keep pushing up here You know the the highs from from yes, they don't seem a million miles away No real trend line over the last couple of days that I like the the look of to be honest Think just putting this on that 15 minute chart this resistance level We've sort of broken through here helps with a bit of dollar weakness is not a bad one as well I think if you are long to stop in this case below 108 71 is is good enough, you know, if it comes back below there It's just likely to get relatively messy not far from its high of the day as was pound when I was looking earlier You can see that's knocking on the door there a similar kind of trade to that euro in breaking those previous highs of the Well the early morning session 12950 would be where you want that stop below got quite a bit of resistance just up here From Friday, you can see we where we just started to push lower into that close So R1 obviously great place to have taken profit and then you're really looking at the high from Friday, which is I'm going to call more of a zone because you can see we Bound some lows here on the 18th. We broke through then on the 19th and really it's now 12980 to 129 Well 90 as well So quite a key zone there for the pounds of the upsides putting this now in the 15 minute You can see a couple of these markets that have potentially recovered a touch after gapping down You know, they're gonna start to have something like this where they trend up and you get these trend lines on and breaks of these Levels all be it could be today could be down the lion Could then be what really gets us going to the downside and here it might be that the pound does it later on It also breaks its previous highly It also breaks its trend line and that's when you get a big bigger move. I think it's unwise to go into the day with a bias I'm saying, you know equities are going to be bought. We're buying a dip. It's going to fill that gap It's going to be the trade that you know makes my month You know trade what you see not necessarily what you think that would be my advice Yeah, well, yeah, Anthony just saying Twitter's way too biased about about buying the dip and I absolutely agree with that You know dates I've recently actually deleted a lot of people Twitter that were incredibly bearish and my trading improved massively from doing that But yeah, absolutely, you know, especially with Trump's tweet last night where he's talking about the stock market being incredible And that coronavirus is under under control. I'm just having a look here. Actually a tweet I saw from odd stats who were fantastic whenever the market S&P was moving They would tweet they haven't tweeted since September, but this is one that was just going to do in the rounds last night Just talking about a 3% drop on on a Monday after setting a new all-time high in the past 10 days There's been five times One two three six times this has happened three turned into bear markets two turned into corrections one into nothing So just you know be wary of this It's not an opportunity to click buy right now Let the market tell you when that is the case and if I was looking at the decks, which we are right now You know, I'd be saying well I'd happily have been sure on the break of that really targeting Probably literally this low here in that gap and 13,000. So if I wanted to get long really I'd rather be late to the party here and maybe just attack the you know if we break the high of the day Why would I want to you know try get? You know by the the low here try to to pick that bottom. It's it wouldn't really be too beneficial I would say unless you know a headline comes out to really look for that as usual though any questions, please Do do let us know my advice would be simply to take your time Take your time. I don't feel you like you need to be in a trade identify your levels. Where are they if they don't come in? No drama. I hope you all have a good trading date. Okay, she will later on