 So with that, let me request Ambassador George Moose, who's the Vice Chair of the Board of Governors at USIP, former Korea Ambassador of the United States, and former Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs. If you could please introduce our speaker. Thanks, George. Oh, thank you. It's my distinct honor to introduce to you somebody who, I'm sure, the introduction in this audience, Senator Mohammad Dar, the Honorable Minister of Finance of the government of Pakistan. He, as you all know, is a leading international economic and financial expert. But more than that, he is recognized as a leader not only in his own country, but internationally. His experience and expertise in the world of finance and economics are matched by an abiding interest in commitment to humanitarianism, democracy, and the rule of law. He is a distinguished graduate of two of Pakistan's most prestigious universities, government college, which is now a government college university, and the University of Punjab in Lahore. I believe most of you have had a chance to look at the minister's biography and resume, and I think we will all agree that it is indeed impressive. As I read through it, it seemed to me that there were three major themes or threads that run through it consistently. The first is his extensive experience and involvement in the private sector, which, as we all know, is the ultimate driver of economic growth and economic change and development. That experience actually began in the United Kingdom, but continued when he returned to Pakistan in the mid-1970s. And I think it's what informs much of his thinking as he is occupying this vitally important role as Minister of Finance. The second thread is that clearly of national and public service, something he has pursued both nationally and internationally. I noted that in 1976, for example, he accepted an offer from the government of Libya and joined as a senior auditor in the Auditor General Department in Tripoli. And in the intervening years, he's had an ongoing relationship with key international institution serving in the position of director at the World Bank, at the Asian Development Bank, and at the Islamic Development Bank. And at home in Pakistan, Senator Dara's commitment to public service is expressed in his 20 years of service in the Pakistan Parliament, including two terms as a member of the National Assembly and three consecutive terms as a senator. And during that same period, he has served his country in a variety of senior government positions as Minister of State and Chief Executive of Pakistan, the Pakistan Investment Board, twice as Federal Minister of Finance, Economic Affairs, Revenue, and Statistics, and since June of 2013 as Minister of Finance. He is also a member of the Parliamentary Committee on Constitutional Reforms. But last but not least, Senator Dara's contributions to social sector and the public sector are rooted in his humanitarianism and his philanthropic commitment, which is the driving force behind the two charitable organizations he heads and runs in the name of the Hajveri Trust and the Hajveri Foundation. From the perspective of this house, the US Institute of Peace, what we regard as especially important is that he has been a very close friend and a strong supporter of our work in Pakistan. The advice and the guidance he has given to our team, we underwilder, and indeed to our board, our new chair, Steve Hadley, who visited in Pakistan not long ago, has been invaluable in helping us guide our work in this very important time, in this most important country. And so it's with great pleasure that I welcome the honorable minister and invite him to address us on current situations in Pakistan. Mr. Finister. Bismillahir Rahmanir Raheem. Mr. Host, ambassadors, diplomats, ladies and gentlemen, very good afternoon, and As-Salaamu Alaykum. Indeed, it's a great pleasure to be here. It's my second visit in the recent past. I accompanied Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif in the last visit in October when he came to meet President Obama on an official visit here. And we had the pleasure of interacting at USIP when he was Prime Minister of Pakistan with the chief guest. I had opportunity to meet few of you at that event. And I was also asked to debrief at that event about some economic situation in Pakistan. So this is a great event for me that I'm here amongst same friends and the same USIP with Moid Yusuf smiling as the host. Let me just remind you that I had those of you who were not present in the last event when Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif visited USIP. We had actually inherited an economy which was relatively weak. We had serious macroeconomic imbalances. Structural reforms were required. Stabilization measures need to be implemented. A very fairly difficult task was ahead. But we contested our election 2013, which was the general election, based on a manifesto. That manifesto revolved around forays, economy, energy, extremism, and education. So we contested election and the public and the people of Pakistan had given a clear mandate, unlike 2008, where there was a split mandate toward PMLN government at the third time to run the federal government. We had the opportunity to run a province which is the largest province. PMLN has been in governance almost seven times. But the federal government third time. But the task was very, very onerous and the challenges were huge. People expected that there would be serious trouble down the line. So even at the cost of little unpopularity in terms of political graph, we introduced in accordance with our own manifesto very painful reforms in the first few months, particularly within days through the budget. And then it came necessary for us to make sure that those reforms are implemented. Briefly, we had a roadmap, three-year macroeconomic stability roadmap, because the tenure of the government in Pakistan is unlike US five years. But we did want to give a roadmap for five years. Obviously, people would like to see that almost halfway through what we have achieved. So the fundamental macroeconomic targets we fixed for us, the first one was to increase the GDP, which was around 3% average last five years of the previous government, to double it in three years to 6%. So increase every year by 1%. The first year, 4%, the second year, 5%, the third year, 6%. To reduce the fiscal deficit, which you always call the mother of all evils, from 8.8 to 8, within a matter of a few weeks, to close the previous fiscal year of the previous government, because the fiscal year begins 1st of July. And we were elected on 11th of May. And we were sown in on 5th of June. The prime minister on 7th of June, the cabinet. So we said we'll bring it down to 8. And then to around 6 this year, and next year, 5 and 30 or 4, which is a very respectable, internationally acceptable fiscal deficit for a country like Pakistan. The third target, which we have fixed for us, was to increase the investment to GDP ratio from 12.6% to 20% in three years. Fourth, on this goal, is to increase the tax GDP ratio from 8.5% to 13% in the same three year macroeconomic stability program. Fifth, was to increase the forest reserves of the country from $8 billion to $20 billion in three years in order to cover more than three months import bill. And lastly, the public debt, which when we had the second time federal government, we left at 3 trillion rupees total debt, which increased in the next eight and a half years of a martial law driven government to almost double, over 6 trillion. And in the last five years, when the transition took play from a quasi-military rule to full democratic government to 14 and a half trillion, this was certainly unsustainable. So we declared that in three years, we will bring it back to the statutory limit, which is 60% of the GDP. So these were the macro goals which we have been working around. There were some inactions, which are considered to be, for me, of criminal nature for any government that for the sake of political expediency, you play with the economy. For example, the electricity tariff was not passed through for almost 15 months. It required a $0.06 adjustment from $0.09 to $0.15. And the regulator had given the awards, but not implemented, neither were the regular government nor were the categorical government. The second one was there was a steep fall from the budgeted figure to the actual revenue collection last year from $238.1 billion to $194.6 billion. So they had revised it to $225.0, $215.0, $205.0. And this was very serious. And the categorical government had committed here in this city with the twin buildings that they would go back and introduce 0.7% of GDP, new tax measures, which were not implemented. The summaries were prepared. The entire due process was completed. KTGP Prime Minister had approved, but for political expediency because elections were very near not implemented. And I have already declared publicly given a chance that if we have two-third majority in the Senate, upper house, and the lower house, I would like to introduce a constitutional amendment that for all times to come, the government, no matter whose government and which political party, they should hand over a clean slate to the next comment so that they can be made accountable that what has taken over, what has been taken over, and what they deliver to the next comment. So this is a short history. The reforms have already shown the very positive results. First of all, as I said, we presented the budget in a very record time. Well, we've been in touch with the after we won the election. Everybody knew who is going to be in the government. Party had clear mandate majority. So between 11th of May till 7th of June, obviously, we were informally interacting, Secretary of Finance, the governor of Central Bank, the chairman of the FPR. But obviously, on 7th of June, we had to work extra hard as a team to give the country budget on 12th of June, 2013. Because we have a process which need to be followed. I didn't know at that time that, subsequently, the US is going to be having financial emergency. I had known that I probably would have been encouraged not to overwork and let it. We have a constitutional provision also for 120 days. But we decided not to because it's new government and let. So we managed to give the budget on 12th of June, which has passed on 28th of June. We immediately re-engaged ourself with IMF. And all the reforms which one could have expected from the international donors to bring the country's economy back on track and to move towards the road of stability and balance macroeconomic position in the country. We had already introduced all those reforms through our own finance bill, which was presented on 12th of June. Because a manifesto, which happened to be co-author of that manifesto on the base of which our party had contested election, had a clear roadmap about the economic future road map of Pakistan-Muslim League N. So we actually followed that. So right now, in a matter of eight months, results are already with us. Things have improved tremendously. Our revenue has gone up by around 17% the Texas collection, which was last year, 3% growth. Our foreign remittances have increased by 11% against a target of 6%. Our exports have grown by 6.2%. Our GDP growth is already showing 4% plus. And the fiscal deficit is actually below than what is targeted for the first eight months of the current fiscal year. So this actually led us to re-engage ourselves with the multilateral donors who had shied away from Pakistan for the last few years. Because they probably lost faith, I can't say much. But there was no business. External flows had zeroed. And we obviously started off with World Bank. I'm sure many of you know that the IDA cycles are three-year cycles. The countries obviously work hard to access their dues share. It's very concessionary loan, 25 years with five years grace, with an average cost of less than 2%. It's virtually free money. But since Pakistan was not on the good economic health, so obviously the first two years of the three-year cycle, which ends 30th of June, 2014, had been lost by the time we were sworn in. So we had worked hard. Obviously, they waited to see what are the outcome of the reforms we were introduced. We got first the prior actions delivered. We got the first review done for 30th of September quarter. We got the second review done. And that generated the faith. And that generated the trust. And that generated the confidence in these multilateral donors to re-engage with Pakistan. I'm happy to share with you that we, according to our calculation, we could access maximum under IDA 16, 1.7 billion US dollars. Having seen our performance, we are already in business with them. World Bank Operations Committee has already approved two program loans of 1 billion US dollar. While the world would celebrate Labor Day on 1st May, the World Bank would celebrate Pakistan Day by having a program in the board on that day. So we would have, the last week of May, two project loans. One is Dasu, a hydro project. I'll come to energy in a minute. And the second one was the water irrigation system in the province of Sindh. They have been working hard and trying hard, but no success. So we got these two projects in principle agreed with the World Bank 600 plus 100 million. So that's how we would be able to access, as a country, to what I call Dushia of Pakistan as a member of these two institutions. This has now led us. We have been absent from the international bond market for seven years. So Pakistan decided that we should sound out that we would wish to be back and be present in the international market. So me and my colleagues, we had been traveling last almost a week. It one team towards West and other team towards East. One was headed by me. The other team towards East were headed by finance secretary. And we ended up on road shows last night in New York. We've been, West team been to Middle East, Europe. And the US, the East team went towards Hong Kong, Singapore, LA, and Boston. We had indicated that we would go for index size, which is $500 million, standard size of an issue. The response is amazing. We just, before I came here, we closed the book building exercise. It's manyfold. That shows that the confidence of the financial markets also, like the multilateral donors, has come back in Pakistan's economic future. They're satisfied with the performance. They're satisfied with the results so far achieved. And overall, they're satisfied with the direction of Pakistan economy. Against the indication of soliciting about half a billion US dollar bond, we had ended up with, obviously, with great acknowledgement for those who had actually made a historic interest, a historic interest in Pakistan sovereign paper. This is the largest demonstration of interest in Pakistan paper ever in the past. As I said, it's more than 10-fold. And we decided to go for, instead of half a billion, $2 billion, close transactions for $2 billion, one for five years and one for 10 years. So this is the confidence of the bond markets. As I said, the multilaterals, I explained the World Bank. Asian Development Bank is back on business. They have done already John Schor a project. They are doing social safety net funding also. And they would also be joining in for the program loans, which is one on the development sector, taxes, et cetera, the revenue, and the energy reforms. These are two reform programs which World Bank God willing would give final approval on 1st of May in the board meeting. So we have been now proactive in coming back to the economic map of the world. The indications are very positive. I would start from where we are sitting now. One was happy to read in Wall Street Journal a few weeks back. Despite serious security concerns, Pakistan is likely to attract huge interest of foreign direct investment in Pakistan. Obviously, it is based on what we promised, what we have delivered so far, and our roadmap where we would like to take Pakistan, which I explained as three years ago, macroeconomic stability program. Since IDA 16 was closed on 30 June 2014, we had now engaged ourselves with the World Bank group for the next five years roadmap, 2015-19, the country strategic partnership program. Now, this program will revolve around four ease of our political parties manifest, which explained economy, energy, education, and extremism. So we have, in principle, agreed for the next five years, the World Bank group is likely to fund different projects revolving around these four areas to the tune of around $10.2 billion. Our results, as I said, have been quite encouraging. We believe that we will remain God-willing on track, and we would either perform or over-perform. Jethro, I don't know how many of you have the chance to read their latest report. They have indicated Pakistan is likely to be the second-choicest place for the foreign direct investment. If you continue to follow the reforms and take the country forward, as per our economic plan, unfolded, they believe that Pakistan is likely to be the second-choicest place for the foreign direct investment. The overseas investor chamber of commerce, where Pakistan was rated minus 34, most of the multinationals of U.S.-based companies are the members. So they have now rated Pakistan plus two. In terms of latest survey of the World Bank for business confidence, Pakistan has left India behind. We have 110. India is 134. So the last thing, good news for me is our old friend Mr. O'Neill, the economist, has now come up with the term mint, as opposed to previous term brick. Now, the mint is Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria and Turkey. The good news for me is Pakistan that he rates now, it's a joint exercise, professional exercise undertaken by economists O'Neill and BBC, that Pakistan is likely to be, if we continue on the reform path, we have adopted for Pakistan. Pakistan is likely to be moving from 44th world economy as of today to 18th world economy by 2050. As a citizen of Pakistan, I'm quite happy with 18th or better, but I'm certainly unhappy with the timeline he has given for us. You'd like to half it if possible, and I can assure you it's doable. Pakistan economy has a great resilience, has a great potential. We have so far been working mainly to fix and do the fight fighting and to fix the macroeconomic imbalances which we inherited. I believe the future lies in the exploration and production of the natural resources Pakistan is blessed with. That area has been totally ignored in the last two decades. Internationally proven track record of reserves in Pakistan are quite high, both hydrocarbon as well as coal and other minerals. Obviously there was not very good economic incentive for these exploration companies to come and explore. Despite the fact Pakistan has one of the best success rate in this field, up to 2012, last two years have been not very pleasant, up to 2012 if you drill five wells, any drilling company, they will have at least one discovery out of five wells. This is one of the best on the globe. So we have, the previous government had actually announced but it remained fully implemented. They have revised the rate, valid price, and it has been revised almost double to six, seven dollars. But as a student of economics, it's a very simple question. Should I be buying or importing gas for $16, $17? Or should I be paying $6 to $7 to a foreign direct investor who comes in Pakistan, explores and produces and provides in the same gas? I make huge savings. Same as the case of coal. We have almost 85 percent, huge reservoirs of coal in Pakistan, tar. India is trading only the tail of those reservoirs. And they have around 12 to 15 percent. They did mining on time. They have already these electricity generation coal projects on the mouth mine. We are still in the process of now pushing the mining as well as the coal projects. Now this is what I could explain because of his economy and I'll be happy to answer questions. On the second E, which is energy, obviously we again unfortunately had a shortfall of around 4,000 megawatt last year, which resulted in 12 to 16, 17 hours of load shedding. And one major reason that it could have been much better was the $5 billion equivalent of the dues payable to the generation companies, which included foreign investors, including from Europe and other countries. The average disbursement used to be 15, 20 billion rupees against 500 billion rupees or 150 million dollars. So we announced in the budget last year that we will clear these dues within 60 days. And I'm happy to share with you that we cleared the entire backlog in 45 days. That added on to our generation capacity of 1,700 megawatt of electricity, reduced the load shedding to three to four hours, September, October, the domestic load shedding was zero. And the industrial production has gone up between the first six months of this year, 6.8 percent as compared to 2.9 percent, same half year last fiscal year. So when I say that there's a great potential, I think certain things need to be fixed. Now we have come up with a very detailed plan of enhancing our generation capacity within this tenure by not 4,000 the supply demand gap of today, but around 9 to 10,000 megawatt so that we can cater the additional demand, which would obviously be required for the enhanced GDP growth which we're aiming at. So there is a medium term plan and there is a long term plan. We are also embarking upon the energy projects like Dasu, which is about seven to eight years, Dhyamar Basha, which is 10 to 12 years because both are four and a half thousand megawatt, but Dhyamar Basha is not only power generation, hydro power generation project, but it's also a dam, a water reservoir, which Pakistan needs very badly. We have also undertaken some cleanest technology-based coal generation projects, 6,600 megawatt in Blossistan, around 4,000 megawatt in province of Punjab. The future infrastructure uplift program is again massive in our four years. It would be something like 30 odd billion US dollars equivalent, which would generate economic activity and hundreds of thousands of jobs. It will increase the per capita income. It will give a boost to the GDP growth. So, but most of those projects would be either on BOT basis or on public-private partnership basis or on IPP mod. We would give upfront tariff for almost all different fuel-based energy projects henceforth to be commissioned in Pakistan. We have already given bagasse, biomass, renewable energy, solar, wind. So, that's the focus even coal-based. So, the idea is the energy mix which has gone terribly towards the wrong tilt over the last 15-20 years from 75% non-ferrous oil and 25% furnace oil has now gone other way around in the last two decades. It is 75% furnace oil-based and it is 25% non-ferrous oil-based. As a consequence of which the price of electricity is much expensive than even the United States of America and many of the European countries. It's about 15 cents on average. I'm sure most of you would know that the furnace oil-based energy would cost you something like 23 cents per kilowatt. So, it's fairly expensive. So, we are frustrating that energy mix by adding all the future generation projects be it civil nuclear, be it solar, be it wind, be it coal-based, they would all frustrate and bring down the average over the next period of four years. So, we don't have to increase, you know, this energy prices in the long run, medium to long run. Inflation numbers are showing very smart. You know, I keep repeating that the directions of upward growth on GDP and downward trend of inflation have converged between IMF and Pakistan government, which is a good sign. We always would differ on numbers because obviously they're very conservative, they wait for the numbers. They only are interested to announce the success. So, they don't take any chances of, so they're always very conservative. So, it's fine. But they now believe and they have declared not only them, but Asian Development Bank that Pakistan is Pakistan growth is going likely to be better than projected or anticipated by IMF or Asian Development Bank. They've even revised the number from 2.8 to 3.1. We still hold, we will be 4 plus, God willing, inshallah, because we have the first six months already 4 plus. On the inflation, we have been consistently saying that it will remain in single digit and they have been talking on double digit. They had in fact projected around 12%, but in the second, after the second review, 31st of December, they have now again converged that it is going, if the inflation would be lower than initially projected by IMF and that they have now indicated a figure of 10%. I did make an offer to publicly, when we had the joint press conference in the way, that if my friend can reduce by just a fraction of a point of 1% and comes down to nine point something, something, we can converge on figure also, but we are saying it in half. So our figures are absolutely on track. Initially, as I said, the inactions of the past, two major actions, the tariff increase to industrial, to commercial, to bulk, all accept the low-income domestic consumer up to 200 units, which still cost Pakistan two and a half billion dollars per annum this particular year, but it is down from almost six billion dollars subsidy to two and a half billion dollars this year, but that is budgeted. So we have no worry. We have already dished out almost 1.8 billion dollars equivalent of subsidy. The rest is in four months. So you see that the numbers have been in the direction where we were looking for. So those two inactions on part of the tariff pass through as well as the introduction of new revenue measures of 0.7% of GDP, which the previous government had internationally committed to the multilateral lenders, but had not done it. We had actually implemented. The result was obvious that in the first few months, the inflation was to fuel and it did. It did go to up to 10.9 around November-December, but it has come down to again what we anticipated, mainly because of the rupee appreciation of around 10% in Pakistan. We had a very volatile handful of speculators are playing with the currency and it's not the first time. It happened to be dealing with a crisis every time. There are some and it is the second time that people played with the currency in 98-92. Post sanctions, post nuclear detonation sanctions imposed by the world and again this time because of the speculation angle the currency had actually gone to. I'm sure those of you from my co-nationals who have been submitting money from here must be very unhappy. They've been losing 10% in terms of rupee value, but they should not bother much because the gain to the Exchequer is huge. It's almost $7 billion equivalent as of now. It's almost $7 billion the rupee's worth of loans have gone down in terms of actual numbers. So please bear with us. It's a small cost you would pay. The things are getting cheaper. The people you send the money to, 14 industries have as a consequence of stable currency and an appreciated rupee have voluntarily after negotiations with the government of Pakistan announced reduction of their products between 5 to 8% just around two weeks ago. The government has reduced already the petroleum prices, kerosene, petrol, diesel, high speed, light speed, high octane, almost average 5% over the last few days from 1st of April, effective 1st of April. So it's going to bring the inflation down. So inflation would be, as I said, in the single digit territory. The stock market has been doing wonderful, already declared one of the best performing emerging market in the region. So you see it has increased about 30 odd percent value. The index has increased by almost 33%. In terms of rupee capitalization it has gone around 25%. In terms of dollar it has gone 18%. So they're good numbers. So I now believe that the slogan we gave, we do not need aid, he would like to, you know, depend on investment and trade. I think we have moved towards that goal already practically, you know, but by performing the way the Pakistan economy has performed. So energy, I think I've covered the education. We have a plan to double our national allocation for national allocation of education from 2% of GDP to 4% over a period of our current turnover. So, you know, we are giving all the importance which we should be giving on investing on the human capital. We have almost more than half of the youth between 18 to 25. There's a huge capital we have in terms of human resource. We have, whereas we have in our budget for the current fiscal year applied all the possible austerity measures, two areas we have increased our allocations. One is development program because country needs infrastructure, energy, communication, development projects in Pakistan. So we increase almost by around 30%. On the social safety net side, we have increased our allocation by 87.5% for the current fiscal year. We would be serving one million more families through the income, cash income support. It, last year the total displacement is 30 billion, this year it is going to be 55 billion rupees. And the other programs for youth, for the small and medium enterprises, for the microfinance, for the skill training of the youth, previous last year we had around 10 billion rupees allocation. This year we have made 20 billion. So as opposed to last year 40 billion, we have an allocation of 75 billion. So the education and the social safety net expenditure are our, will remain our focus. I think, you know, the number of people who have fallen below the poverty line. I've been voicing all these concerns as leader of the opposition because as honorable ambassador introduced me, luckily I do not have a disconnect with the system over the last 25 years. I've been in some capacity been involved, either member of the opposition or leader of the opposition, or member of the Senate or member of the National Assembly or in cabinet. So you see this connectivity has actually given me a great edge to remain on track on the different national issues and on different national subjects. So I can assure you that we would be giving the due priority and I've been saying that, you know, the well numbers are getting, you know, worst, you know, their positions and the income of falling and etc. the numbers were increasing. Actually, it happened to be true because five years ago the definition of, you know, the dollar a day and I've been saying it's not fair. The purchasing power of the dollar even in red states of America was not the same. So thanks God, you know, the benchmarks have been devised, but you know, we, I have been voicing as leader of the opposition. Moid asked me that how long would I like to speak? Is it 30 minutes or I said anything between 30 minutes or three hours? I said my budget debate when I open as leader of the opposition, I used to take around two and a half three hours, but I said I will not board the audience. We have a huge, perhaps more interesting Q&A because the ideas or any questions you have, I would like to, you know, answer lastly the extremism or the security matter, the fourth E. Obviously, you know, it is equal priority of our government to deal with the security situation in the country to eradicate extremism and, you know, for the purpose of the regional peace, I think we have been pursuing proactively this school, parallel and with equal priority as for economy or energy. It's a different, you know, matter that the results on economy are quicker than on the security issue, but things are improving. The government decided that the Prime Minister invited all the parties, whether they were present in the parliament or not present in the parliament or political parties leadership. Soon after, within weeks, and these all parties conference which took place in Islamabad gave a mender to the Prime Minister to try and resolve this issue through peaceful dialogue process. So we are giving the peace a last chance through dialogue. The options, other options will remain available to the government of Pakistan. I don't think we have too long time to wait. And another reason why we have to follow the dialogue process is our next door neighbor. It has a great impact, obviously on our policies also. Afghanistan chose to engage Taliban and requested Pakistan that almost four dozen of key people who were in the custody of Pakistan and the U.S. and Pakistan were on one page. Afghanistan requested both countries that those should be freed so that they can facilitate the process of dialogue between High Peace Council of Afghanistan and Taliban. So that also has a bearing that for us to go solo on targeted operations or operations wouldn't have gel well because the enemy is common, whether they are stationed across the border from our international borders or our side or their side, the issue is common. And I call them common enemy. So we have a priority to deal with the subject. Our government has a very efficient and very robust recent national security internal security plan which was approved by the Parliament, sorry by the cabinet. We have made some different changes. We have introduced another ordinance protection of Pakistan ordinance. So we are taking all the legal steps which are required in order to deal with with this menace because you know the human rights activists always you know they have their own view how to deal with this problem. There are always two schools of thoughts but as I said we have sequenced our actions in accordance with the all parties conference to go for what they call give a give a peace last chance through dialogue process. So that is on. So these are the four E's which I have explained to you that are core fundamentals of our manifesto and our government believes you know to deal with every and each aspect of economy and other sectors in a most transparent manner based on merit, good governance and zero tolerance for corruption. So so far things are shaping up as I said the results are very encouraging and we hope if the trend continues we would be certainly positioned of what Mr. O'Neill much earlier than what Mr. O'Neill has predicted 2050. Now with these words ladies and gentlemen I thank you very much and I'll be very happy to answer any questions any of you would like to ask. Thank you minister Dar every time you speak I have to actually look at the podium and see where your notes are and either this is incredible or you've got them all wrong and I'm sure it's the former but both presumptions are wrong they are credible as well as they are not wrong you speaking without the notes is incredible okay that's that's what I meant let me open the floor we have mics so just wait for the mic to come to you because this is also being sort of taped and recorded introduce yourself and then then ask the question let me just throw out to myself please but you can take them in any order and then then we'll go don't help me we're feeling now please go ahead this is not a private conversation so I'll be nice one I didn't hear you talk much about US assistance specifically you know there's the the Kerry Luga Bill that that went through a lot of the analysts like me who sit here don't see that being being renewed or you know a new arrangement perhaps coming where does the Pakistan government see the US assistance specifically fit into the mix that you've talked about that's that's one and the second if I may there was a bit of disappointment at least I've had a lot of questions asked on the deal quote-unquote deal with India and I remember last time you were here and and you spoke in town there was a fair bit of optimism around it but but it seems that there's been a bit of a delay in that so so some some reflection on on where we stand is that going to move forward and and why you know that are the surprising sort of delay would you like to take these or should we take more questions you should want only two questions okay yes he lost his chance to ask third the first of all the US assistance well we are extremely grateful we have a tremendous ties with the US you know the government and establishment wonderful relations surely as you know that Kerry Luger bill I think heavily under dispersed please pardon me saying so I think I think Robin is taking notes but obviously you know we are not pushing for for undisperse amount so that's obviously a party policy is that we would like to have more access to the markets enough incentives to attract the investment from friendly countries and the US comes one of the top friends of Pakistan we have a great volume almost quarter of her trade mutual two-way trade is with the United States so the assistance as vis-a-vis coalition support fund is grossly and widely misunderstood this is not a reimbursed this is not assistance but a reimbursement of the expenses which armed forces of Pakistan incur we bill and we are reimbursed so I think there should be a clarity in the minds of those who believe that CSF is an assistance it is a reimbursement our friends are very cooperative I'm sure it will be top of my agenda of the pending bills but I can't tell you my agenda because Robin is going to leak it this evening my bilateral economic dialogue which is part of the strategic dialogue they begin tomorrow because they requested the US government to decouple the economic portion of the strategic dialogue a few weeks ago my colleagues the advisor on foreign affairs and the defense minister came but the economic portion of the strategic dialogue was funded till I arrived I tried to make this a three-in-one journey to save the country half the time maybe one third or at the one third of the cost because otherwise it would have been 35 days I'm doing all that business 15 so we have we have concluded the first event which was roadshow and the bond marketing which is over few few couple of hours ago now tomorrow we have you know this bilateral economic dialogue so my friend we will be discussing the 2014 and and beyond so I can give a hint to Robin what could be the subject matter discussion from my side on the delay about the Indian well we are very much focused on the regional connectivity and let me cite a couple of things before our party took oath in June 2013 the the famous project known as Casa Central Asian South Asian 1000 the electricity connectivity between Tajikistan Kyrgyzstan Afghanistan Pakistan could not see any light of the day despite great efforts by the State Department great efforts by the World Bank and great efforts with the other multilateral donors so once we were sworn in I put it on a fast track it got in days the approval of the project we got in days approval of the economic committee of the National Economic Council ethnic and also we got them approval of the cabinet to kick off the negotiations the good thing is the project has already been approved in the last few days with the World Bank we have certain issues on tariff but I think I would not bore you with the details but I'm sure in the forthcoming meeting of this of World Bank I am after next few days starting from Friday I think we would be able to you know sort it out between the basic issue is the transit fee which was projected in the feasibility of the World Bank around 0.6 cents but they're now asking 2.75 cents so obviously I don't want to use strong word one could call it daylight robbery but certainly we are talking economics so we will talk in economic sense and we'll sort out in the next few days so we are very much there we are all pro for this project which has been you know a great great objective to connect the region in terms of the spare electricity Tajikistan Kyrgyzstan have in you know half of the year and supply to Pakistan Afghanistan on the Indian you know the delay in Indian matter we want the regional connectivity not now but we are the political party who actually you know triggered the the process of dialogue in as early as 1999 with the BJP Prime Minister Vajpayee at the time who first on his first ever state visit or any Indian Prime Minister to Pakistan who declared that we want to resolve what we have been saying he said all issues including the pending issue of Jamu Kashmir on the basis of mutual dialogue so it was a great you know beginning but unfortunately got derailed because of the subsequent coup a military coup in Pakistan so we have re-engaged and then we also came up to push the concept of SAFTA you know there is a regional cooperation of seven countries and we wanted to convert SARC a forum for this free trade in the region like European Union SAFTA but somehow due to hard stand and certain barriers by one of the one of the major neighbors this could not see a light of the day again we have now got engaged with India you know on a very proactive manner in the last few months in order to expand the the trade between the two countries what we call non-discriminatory market access it's a new term we have coined for mutual expansion on the trade we wish to minimize the negative list by both countries they have about 186 items which should be open and we have a similar large long list there's a there was a committee i mean i can share it with you there's a there was a committee headed by me to review the future roadmap about the trade with India the regional for the public regional connectivity we have recommended to the cabinet and to the prime minister that you know this is to be you know proactively followed and closed the the dialogue was at a very advanced stage but on deflection we believe that it is not the time that we should conclude this deal with congress with the sitting government because you might be seen that we are becoming a partisan to the indian general elections we are only we were only few days away even a tentative meeting of the captain was penciled in for this purpose it needs a cabinet approval but i think the wisdom prevailed no matter whom indians would elect as their future federal government and which political party is none of our business is the prerogative of the people of india and whosoever they elect we would let me assure you the spade work is there indian establishment knows the entire detail so as soon as the new government in india is shown in we'll be happy to re-engage ourself on on this subject i hope absolutely thank you more than that we have taha here taha gaya with usa id first of all thank you for your comments particularly on natural gas very very happy to hear that um my first i have two questions my first question has to do with state-owned enterprises i didn't hear you touch on that um we're obviously watching that very closely if you have an update and maybe a timeline for when privatization might happen uh and my second question has to do with given the success that you talked about um in the bond markets and given the recent uh grant by the kingdom of sard arabia does that lessen uh the intensity with which pakistan is participating in the imf program uh and does it intend to stick it out well uh interesting questions uh the as we business first the uh cabinet committee on privatization has already approved 31 entities either to be partially or completely privatized the first fast track transactions are obviously capital market based whereby we have certain shares to offload of ogdc oil and gas development authority corporation ppl pakistan problem limited financial institutions these capital market related transactions would fetch us around two to two and a half billion dollars depending on the market values the process has already been triggered the advertisements for the uh for the appointment of financial advisors to advise on the transactions are already out and uh you know the response is is in the due process we have the intention I can share it with you to probably go for half of this on international market where we are already listed ogdcl and ppl and ubl type transactions we probably would take it to the international market through gdrs or whatever the good advice we get from the financial advisors dealing with the transactions and the rest we would unload in our own stock market so these transactions are well on track they're about seven out of 31 and as I said the 31 includes the privatization of the certain distribution companies where we are having the huge losses line losses etc also couple of generation companies of the electricity then we have we are looking for a strategic partner in the national airline with a clean balance sheet but I call pia new so that the investor doesn't have to bother much about due diligence we just put the planes what we have and the roots and then we offer 26 percent strategic partnership so transactions are on track and hopefully I would materialize we are not leaving the restructuring process to wait till the transactions take place there is a due process under our laws of the land and it takes around anything between 12 to 18 months to complete a process of privatization or what I call strategic partnership transaction finalization so you might have seen that we went for invited bids for wet lease first we had four planes inducted the pilgrims who went for Hajj didn't have any problem first time in many years they had very peaceful service then we inducted and we advertised for another 10 we got three of our choice on dry lease we inducted then we had another tender of 10 we got eight which are being delivered this month the next month so you will have the chance to now switch over your airline I'm also doing marketing for Pakistan by the way you'll be back on your national airline with the beautiful planes latest model 2011-2012 with the you know lag space if you pay the right price and good hostesses with new dresses so it's too much information but okay so you know as finance minister I have to do this marketing business for my own airline so we what I was explaining is that while we are following the process and again this advertisement appointment financial advisor has been out and it requires four weeks to have international participation but we are not sleeping over it we are going ahead with the restructuring so that we'll obviously it will add value and it's reducing reducing the losses because we lose about four to five billion dollars on these SOEs so we are well on track on the bond market as you said that we have good response you know once I felt like sweeping everything what was offered but I thought that let the tranche be led we want to retain the presence of Pakistan in the international markets I think the absence of seven years is not too good rather very bad to use the right words so we intend to remain in the international markets obviously the foreign director investor would like to see our presence we are already in the equity market through our shares in OJDCL and other shares and we would like to be in the bond market too so bond market yes as I said the response is tremendous and must you know thank all those international large bond managers and funds and business houses who have actually shown great interest and confidence in Pakistan much beyond our expectation to be honest and much beyond the expectations of the issuing banks also so you linked it with the Saudi Saudi assistance and then you linked it with saying probably bye bye to IMF none is going to happen let me show you that the reform agenda we have implemented I keep repeating that it is even if I did not need to have an access to the IMF which actually was necessary because of the previous loans I don't want to enter into blame game outside Pakistan which was you know eight and a half billion you know that stand by program the installments became due this year three billion alone was repable so we had to go to IMF but even hypothetically if the country's state of economy was what it was which I as leader of the opposition knew and been yelling to just take corrective measures and it was falling on deaf ears so I would have done I mean we as a government were done the same what we have done today so the reform program is our own home driven program and it made life of IMF very easy they were rather excited I mean I announced my budget on 12th of June took out 7th June announced budget and they came on 19th for a regular review and they were excited to see that were probably potentially or possibly they could advise or suggest to correct the economic imbalance we have already done it and already announced that we are going to do on this road mine so the two things do not have linkage the Saudi assistance is one off it's not Saudi I'll call friendly country assistance so it's one off and it isn't the first time they had done it in the past same countries in the past you know 1998-1999 deferred oil facility so this is one off many people asked me in these road shows has this been an instrument to improve your rupee appreciation my answer is no we have a volume of something like five to six billion dollars transaction per month forty odd billion dollars transactions of import export and other transactions per annum so this is a gift no matter how small it is a grant or gift it has to be acknowledged very graciously and we do acknowledge graciously but it isn't the factor which has actually led the rupee to appreciate it was already adjusted by 9% by the time this inflow came end of February and beginning of March in two tranches of 750 million dollars each so you know a lot of I would say irresponsible people try to give it a color of first some political reasons and I on floor of the house of the National Assembly categorically denied there is no political strings or financial strings attached then some people try to give it a color of some sectarianism I think they're all wrong I think a grant or gift is a gift whether it comes from U.S. or from any other country I think that must be acknowledged with thanks and we do acknowledge the government does acknowledge with thanks you know what it has been done but surely it is not the only factor it might have contributed a little more value addition to the appreciation process but it cannot be the total whole some reason for the appreciation rupee has demonstrated so there is no connectivity I hope my friend I have tried to clarify everything thank you at the back and then we'll take one more because I know minister I has to leave at 4.30 please thank you my name is Tim Marlowe I'm from Johns Hopkins University and sir I had two quick questions I think the first one being you talked about the five-year initiative for the four E's those lines of effort will those funds be allocated across the board evenly or will there be specific emphasis on economy per se or education and then the second part of that question is focusing more so on the energy aspect through my research I've learned that there's a big push for green energy in Africa or excuse me Pakistan primarily solar energy will there be initiatives as part of this the four E plan to kind of incentivize solar or other green energy infrastructure within the country thank you thank you on the question of five years I think you're talking about the World Bank Group which I call the country strategic partnership for future roadmap and around indicative possibility of 10.2 billion surely it can't be equally allocated it differs from project to project program to program and it would be actually you know would be decided when the when the time comes and but certainly the four areas would be it would be revolving around four E's surely but I'm 100% clear that it can't be what you said that equally dispersed equally distributed that's not possible so that's that's number one so it would be as for the you know the requirement at the time of and the agreement between the government of Pakistan and the World Bank Group you know when it happens on the question of incentivizing the green energy yes sure we are you know we have already given solar up front tariff the tariff of solar's are coming down we might have to review very soon those of you who wish to put up solar energy please rush to the to the NEPRA get an agreement before the you know the tariff is divide downward so please come up yes we are actually for all renewables you know we wish why this is the idea that if we come up with upfront tariff the investor has and would save almost year and a half effort now this was not business friendly approach it was a fraud approach why should I be running your financials if you want to come and invest let's say in solar or wind it's not on my business to run your financials to see whether you are making the right capital investment or you are overvaluing the project undervaluing the project so you know this has been the past history why because the government of Pakistan and I call it a fraud policy of the last 15 20 years was guaranteeing the capital was guaranteeing the return and I mean this is ridiculous your investment is guaranteed in Pakistan none of the foreign investment has ever been subject to any loss in the sense by nationalization or re-appropriation or anything in these in Pakistan the laws are in place to protect the investment of the foreign investor never accept a very small interest at a member in the worst days of nationalization world over when the the you know the rule of the game of socialism and communism in early 70s late Zulkali Bhutto even he could not that did not nationalize the foreign interest in Pakistan accept a very small interest in the life assurance cooperation in Pakistan but all you know foreign investment has always been guaranteed and all been taken care of but if I if I need energy and I should run my own models what is the fair price like the whole world does give you an upfront tariff it should be your business run your financial models to see whether it is one million dollar per megawatt cost is fair or seven thousand and somebody gifts you like Saudi Arabia so you bring up a free project and plant and lab so we have come up with upfront tariff we will give the number of years they will give you proper precious agreement which is a sovereign paper sovereign guarantee and you can go to any institution and this paper is obviously bankable that you can raise the funds and funding for your project yeah last question second yeah so I think let's take the one at the right there and then making close hi my name is Amanda mayoral I work at the citative piece here in the economics department and the projections you have for Pakistan's growth is very inspiring thank you um and really excited to hear all the plans you have thank you the 18th position that's incredible my question was has the government or even in your office have you tied these growth rates to balanced growth have you you know a middle middle class is that a goal in mind when you talk about growth what type of economically sustainable plans are you linking these projections to so that you can maintain this in the future thank you surely it will it will be all all inclusive growth to begin with or most of our you know the programs for youth we have put in a clause that the preferred distribution is at least 50 percent of the female gender we have around 52 percent population and they're heavily under engaged in business they have the great potential so we are trying to make sure that the growth is all inclusive across the board in all the real sector areas which includes which includes you know the agriculture which includes industry and manufacturing which includes the service sector and you know the service sector obviously I have another marketing to do soon the service sector includes the telecom industry and Pakistan has been trying in the last few years to auction the spectrum lessons it has five licenses three 3G and two 4G those of you who work for corporate entities or telcos please note down we are going for auction on 23rd of April the previous allocations and the budget of the last comment twice was the first 500 million and 750 the floor price they couldn't do it we have completed the exercise so far we are on the very advanced stage the international advisors were involved the floor price is now since you missed the opportunity they couldn't do it 1.3 billion dollars for five licenses there's a floor price anything you can get more in the auction would be welcome so 23rd of April will be closed so it will roll out a number of opportunities and mainly for females in this industry and we would be coming up with the idea of rolling out this telecenters around 500 across Pakistan we would come with the technology parks so in the telco industry we would be having the latest technology because the GDP growth we are aiming at the job opportunities we intend to create the industrialization which we have kept in mind the regional connectivity through as I explained different the electricity or the trade with India and now the economic corridor with the China we are working at which would half half the distance between Pakistan and China and to Middle East and to other countries so we are working in all these programs but all growth projects are inclusive all inclusive so we would make sure there's a balanced growth and we have strong sectors particularly agriculture and now service sectors become very strong is the rough distribution between these three sectors is 57 percent service sector almost 22 percent this agriculture and 22 percent of flee is the manufacturing thank you I have earned thanks you earned your thanks just just because you came here I can I can share with the audience that I got a call at 6 30 a.m. in the morning on Saturday with the gentleman on the other side saying I'm coming from born going to New York and I wouldn't have slept for I don't know how many days can we move the event so I politely said we can't and he's here and he's spoken to us so I want to thank him before I do that I want to follow your lead and do a bit of marketing myself please don't forget to look at some of our sort of research publications that are there if you if you're interested our next event is on the 23rd on Pakistan is on the 23rd of April looking at Pakistan's counter-terrorism challenge and talking about this book that we've just put out and another one on on insurgencies in South Asia where the former ambassador to Pakistan Ambassador Manter former U.S. commander forces commander General Allen and Peter Lavoie will be speaking may I present you this book yeah ladies gentlemen once again I thank you for your patience and bearing me so long thanks very much indeed and God bless and thanks all of you for for joining us thank you very much